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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
5 Moves You Need to Make Week Ahead Of Week 13 (Ep. 1864)
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This is an iHeart podcast, guaranteed human.
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Fantasy Pro's fantasy football podcast is brought to you by Grainger. If you work as a maintenance manager, your facility is your home turf and your home field advantage is having a partner like Grainger. They offer trusted professional grade products for every industry from lighting and electrical to safety and everything in between, plus next day delivery. Which is why they always come through in the clutch. Just like you. Call 1-800-granger. Click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. Hello, everybody. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined by Tara Roberts, who is trying to survive the storm of the century. It sounds like where she is, it's very loud. So hopefully we can power through here, get a show out for everybody and Tara is hopefully doing okay by the end of recording this.
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Yeah, if you hear anything, just, you know, just ignore it. Just pretend like it's not falling apart around me.
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Stormy sees that we are navigating in fantasy this week. Storms we are navigating in real life will power through for everybody. All of our weekly consensus rankings and tears can be found@fantasyprose.com rankings also, happy early Thanksgiving to everybody. Just so everybody knows, this is going to be the last edition of this short form. We've been doing the show all year, but it's obviously very trade driven. Trade deadline has either passed in most leagues or is about to pass this week in a few leagues. So we wanted to put out one more piece of trade content for everybody. But this will be the last edition of this show. So of course we had to power through the storm to bring out one last bit of trade content for everybody. We've got our usual buys ourselves and then sort of a drop here at the end of the episode from Tara. Tara, why don't you kick us off here with your first buy?
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Yeah, we're gonna do a buy here with Saquon Barkley. This is about as low. The value has been dipping, but this is as low as it's gonna get here, especially coming off this big past performance here that we had from the Eagles. In general. Jalen Hurts looked Fantastic in Week 17 or week that 12 there. He completed 27 of 39 attempts, 289 yards, touchdown. Then he took all the touchdowns on the ground too. It was the Jalen Hurts day and nothing left for Saquon Barkley. The game was salvaged at least by the fact that he did three drive in terms of reception, seven receptions, 52 yards. But it's Been a long time since we've seen a ceiling game from him and technically speaking, we've only had one single ceiling game in the season. That was week eight against the Giants here. Outside of that, it's been very mediocre production for where we were drafting him as a first round pick in the past three games as well. And this is what kind of emphasizes the buy low. He has been RB20 or worse, just mediocre production. But to be fair, these were bad matchups here. They Dallas has clearly improved against the run. Detroit is fantastic, a run against the run. Green Bay can be great against the run as well. But looking ahead rest of season schedule is why let's, let's dive in and buy Saquon Barkley on the low and hope that he can turn into the RB one that we know and love here. Because we've got a great matchup against Chicago, matchup against the Chargers. They're not easy against the run, but if you're going to attack them, that is the way to do it there. We've got a mediocre matchup against Vegas followed by great matchups against Washington and Buffalo there. So at this point, fantasy managers are very frustrated with him. Right before the trade deadline you could swoop in there and grab him on the Jeep.
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Obviously I haven't been paying attention. I'm aware that he hasn't clearly had the same season he did last year. I didn't realize till right now that he has not hit 17 points in half EPR scoring in any game besides that one in week eight that you mentioned against the Giants. That was the big 30 point explosion. That's the only like it's one thing to have not been like hitting these spike weeks he did last year, but to not even have 17 half PPR points in a game. Looking at his game log now is like really remarkable for, for. I mean yeah, I think a lot of people were fading Saquon as the number one overall pick, but that was really driven by like concern about injury and the workload from last year. If you told me he was going to play every game and be getting like a normal snap percentage, like I think everybody's job would be on the floor to see what the production has been. But you're right. What, what a finish. I mean fantasy semifinals and finals at Washington, at Buffalo is like even though he doesn't get the second Washington game because that's not till week 18, it's still an awesome finish to your point. So I think it's a really smart Target, for sure. He. He's weirdly down at RB14 in the rest of season rankings. Maybe not weirdly, given what I just said about what he's done this year, I guess, surprisingly, I should say down at RB14 in the rest of season rankings. Some of the names ahead of him, Chase Brown, Josh Jacobs, Travion Henderson, Javante Williams. Like Javante, you start to get in the range of maybe I don't want to move these guys for Saquon, but like, a few of those names, I think I'd be pretty willing to, especially if I was already in position. Like, I know I'm in the playoffs already.
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I think so too. And especially for the fact that, you know, you could also trade off. Perhaps you're, you know, rich at wide receiver because wide receiver has not been as destitute as running back, so maybe you could pivot that way as well. So, yeah, there's. There's options there for sure.
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Let's go to the wide receivers here for your next buy.
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Well, we're gonna buy into not so great of an offense, but hey, look, rest of season schedule is key here. We are buying Chris Olave here. Again, I'm emphasizing this at this point. Rest of season schedule is a massive reason for why we do or don't attack certain players here. And when we look at Chris Olave with Tyler Shock, I'm kind of in, like, I'm kind of getting there, you know. Shock has started three games this season. The first game was against the LA Rams. Hey, that's. That's. Excuse me. That was not a good game for him or Olave. That's less about the Saints and more about the Rams being the legitimate, potentially only super bowl contender that we see across the NFL right now. After that, they got an excellent matchup against Carolina, where Olave thrived, had over 100 yards and a touchdown there. Then they just had this past matchup against Atlanta, who, to their credit, they did pull their defense together better than it had been in previous weeks there. But we still had a very good volume game there for Olave. Nine receptions on 13 targets, 70 yards there in what was. Was objectively a bad game for Shucks. So to see him still pull through with volume and showcase that upside in terms of ppr, even with a dreadful game from Shuck still pushing volume, that was good. That's what we wanted to see here. The exit of Rasheed Shahid has clearly opened up a lane here. We were seeing good targets throughout the season for Olave, but I think it's Stabilized here with his exit and there's no competition outside of Juwan Johnson. And then again, when we look at the rest of season schedule, that's where you can get on board. We've got Miami, Tampa Bay, Carolina, the Jets in Tennessee. Like, it's, it's, it's good here. They will be competitive and we will see probably 10 plus targets for Olave rest of the way.
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Wide receiver 17 in rest of season rankings. Too high, too low. Just right.
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It's appropriate. You know, theoretically it could go a little bit higher there. I think there's some guys that offer a little bit, you know, higher ceilings but more volatility there. Olave is a very safe play. If you've maybe been nervous about some of those guys that kind of linger around that area, you know, maybe Philadelphia wide receivers and whatnot who showcase upside but are incredibly inconsistent there. Olave has a great rest of season schedule and he showcased just, you know, very solidified volume across the board.
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Let me ask you this, would you. And they're close together in rest of season rankings and these are rankings that have been updated since yesterday's game. So there we're only including experts who have updated their rankings. So these are like as, as you know, refreshed as they can be. Would you trade Drake London for Chris Olave given there's only five games left in the fantasy season, weeks 13 through 17. We know he didn't play in week 12. We're not 100% sure what the knee injury is going to look like going forward. And even when he is back, it's Kirk Cousins, not Michael Penix. And they still have a matchup against Seattle. They still have a matchup against the Rams, who look amazing. Would you trade Drake London for Chris Olave?
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So we talked about him on the recap show in terms of the timeline with Deepak saying that a return for the playoff fantasy playoffs was realistic. So I think maybe the approach here would be if you are, if you, you're one of those people that is, you're like, you're pretty much locked in for a first round by, you're good, you've excelled, maybe you can bypass an Olave and have a Drake London, but if you're competing right now and trying to get in the, there's a real possibility that you might not be able to use some of the next couple of games here. You might want to make that trade.
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Get to our first cell here. Tara, who do you have?
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We are selling Hunter Henry here. Hunter Henry will be a very appealing, very appealing buy here from other people after this dominating week 12 performance. All the other tight ends just look generally mediocre here and perhaps that dominance will make people forget that he has actually been incredibly ineffective since week five and this was the first time that we have seen him since week four give us a tight end one performance and week four was the last time we saw him with double digit fantasy points and half ppr. It's not a coincidence that that happened in this week here. Cincinnati is objectively awful against tight ends and when I say objectively awful, I mean they truly let tight ends run wild here. So they this was probably more about the matchup just being incredibly appealing for him versus this being the turnaround where we see him get back to the reliability that he had through the first several weeks there. We've got a lot of receivers that need attention in that receiving core there and this was more matchup based here. Now granted we do have a good matchup next week against the Giants that is very appealing. But we've seen Hunter Henry fail in what were generally good matchups here. This one is just really specific to tight ends, so I am more inclined to believe that tight that week 12 was more of a matchup based surge for him than something that we should expect moving forward. But considering how we've got so many tight ends dealing with injuries, we lost multiple tight end ones here. We've got other tight end ones that are dealing with quarterback issues. We've got streaming options that are underwhelming to the point where people are saying you know what, I might need to turn to A.J. barner. And I get it because everything has been, you know, kind of sliding downward unfortunately here at the position with a whole bunch of injuries here. So this might be a really strategic time to be able to actually sell a tight end and get good value and try to bait somebody into this.
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Some offensive line injuries as well for New England in that game. So just thinking about the offense in general, what that could look like going forward. It's early in the week so we'll see kind of how that plays out. But you know, will Campbell getting carted off things like that just thinking about the offense in general. But it's a great point. I mean targeting any tight end after they've played the Bengals like Targeting them as somebody to sell seems like a really smart decision for the most part. Now, Tara, let's stick with the Patriots. And I actually misread the names that you submitted, and you actually had a third buy. I jumped to the cells too early. So let's go back and get one more buy here from another Patriot.
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Yeah, we're gonna do a buy. Some people might think of it as a sell. It's a, you know, it's Trayvon Henderson. We're gonna buy in on this. We had the return of Ramandre Stevenson, and maybe it'll make you feel a little panicked here, make some people more inclined to sell on him. But I think this is a good time to buy on Travyon Henderson here because he was still lead back. It was a very underwhelming game from a fantasy perspective, very disappointing 18 carries. So he dominated. We had no question about that. We feel good about that. But only 66 yards, a few receptions, underwhelming for what? We had grown to see him without Ramon Dre Stevenson there, but obviously it was good to see him retain this role in a massive letdown. Unfortunately, after we had literally watched him ascend into greatness and the Patriots came in and did kind of what we expected, expected them to do with the return of Ramandre Stevenson. While they let Travion Henderson keep the lead back, they did try to force Ramandre Stevenson at the goal line. But good news here and why Henderson is a buy is that Ramondra Stevenson failed at the goal line multiple times. It was kind of embarrassing there, and that might be enough to make them say, okay, we gave it a go. We gave him a second chance there. But the real pop in our offense is with Travion Henderson, and he can be effective at the goal line, and we just need to not be stubborn and let him do the things that he did so successfully the few weeks before there. But regardless here, there is a clear continuation of him being the lead back here. And we talked about the remaining strength of schedule before with the Patriots. I believe we did here. It's really good here. But there is the bye week. That is the. That is the issue here. We've got the Giants, we've got the bi week, then we've got Buffalo, Baltimore Jets. Baltimore is the toughest defense that Henderson will face on the ground. Outside of that, it's setting up for such a really good rest of season schedule for him, and Baltimore will allow him to get reception so he can still pull through on that end. The only issue is the bye week. So that does make this more of a move for fantasy managers who are preparing for the playoffs, knowing that they're going to get in and they're stacking talent and they won't actually need him in week 14. But this is a really good time to kind of slip in on that Patriots panic committee backfield and grab Trayvon Henderson.
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Yeah, it's a great call. Like that week 14 buys is so killer for anybody who really is trying to get into the playoffs. So take advantage of that. If you don't need that win to get into the playoffs, go out and offer up somebody who is going to be playing that week and get yourself set up for. For success in the future. I. I love that strategy. Yeah. Like, on the one hand, it was a disappointment coming off what we saw, you know, on Thursday night, the week before. On the other, like, just in a vacuum with Ramadri coming back, Trayvon still getting 18 carries and Ramandre just giving. Getting six. Like, that's a win. Like, even if he didn't come with the production you want, especially against the Bengals, you would think this huge game, like, that's a win in a vacuum and just take that and run with it for it. And to your point, use it as maybe a buying opportunity here. For somebody who is disappointed by that and is going to say, like, hey, like, not only did Raj come back, but he got those goal line carries. This is going to be a headache the rest of the way, I think. I think you can. This is one that where he's ranked pretty highly in the early rest of season rankings. He's RB11, but I don't know that that's totally reflective of how most fantasy managers are viewing him. I think a lot of people, like, they were frustrated a ton early in the season. They probably were frustrated by Ramandre's usage, even if it wasn't that many carries. But at the goal line this week, like, I think he is attainable. It's probably not going to be like, crazy cheap, but I think he is attainable and. And could really, you know, go nuclear later in the year. Like, to your point about the schedule, like you said, we've talked about the Patriot schedule before, but it really is just like very appealing here. So. And even the Ravens, like, you mentioned them, like, yes, they can get us up through the air. Like, I don't know. I don't think they're that fast. Like, it wouldn't surprise me if they like, consistently bottle him up, but allow one or two, like, big Game breaking plays from him too. Like even in that game, assuming he's getting the opportunities. So even like the good defense, like it just takes one of him to break a single tackle and then he's gone. So yeah, I really like Henderson Rest this season. We do have a special offer for everyone. You can unlock a month of Betting Pros premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today. Use promo code FP1MONTH. That's the number one not spelled out. Get access to tools like the same game parlay tool, the Prop Bet Analyzer and the prize picks Prop Bet cheat sheet. Don't miss out. Try it. Free for one month. Now available on iOS and Android. Again, that promo code is FP the number one month. We've got one more here. And you phrase this not as a cut or a buy or a sell, but as a move on from. And who do you have for us?
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Yeah, it's, it's a move on from Xavier Worthy here because it's not going to be uniform across, you know, all leagues. You a lot of times, you know, you might not have the ability to sell, you know, subwide. A lot of people say, well, you know, you know, such and such. No one's buying them in my like. Yeah. And for a guy like Xavier Worthy, that makes a ton of sense. So it's going to be conditional on your league here. But regardless of if you're dropping him or you're able to sell him, it is time to move on. You just, you need to move on and find a way to get him off your roster here. You know, you might be in a 10 man league and 10 team league and no one is interested in buying and your only move forward is drop. Or you could be in a deeper league, competitive league where someone sees a wide receiver that is attached to Patrick Mahomes, his job is not being threatened. He's a clear wide receiver too, right. He's behind Rice. But other than that, you're not thinking that Marquis Brown and Juju Smirk are coming to steal his job there and he's attached to Patrick Mahomes who can turn it on at any second. So there's a logical reason that you could be able to sell him in a deeper leagues and potentially package him up with somebody else to get rid of him. But regardless, the move forward here is just to get rid of him because at this point it's a fantastic day if you can get 10 fantasy points out of him. And the ceiling, it's just not there. He achieved it. A 17 fantasy point ceiling earlier in the season in PBR and that was without Rasheed Rice. With Rasheed Rice, their upside is Cap. The floor is just, you know, abysmal. Unfortunately, the touchdown opportunities are not there as well. He's got one on the season. And even if you, you know, do him a solid and exclude that first game of the season where he really wasn't playing there, he's averaging less than four receptions in a game. That is not good from somebody who doesn't have aggressive touchdown equity there. The schedule moving forward, it's, it's very mixed bag. A matchup against Dallas could go either way, but obviously we see they're toughening up against the defense. Then we've got a terrible matchup against Houston, a bad matchup against Chargers, you get a good match against Tennessee and then a bad matchup against Denver. I just rest a season. There is no point at what you're going to be thrilled to put him into your roster. This is your last chance to kind of figure out maybe how you just move forward and try and get a little out of something out of him or just move on period and drop.
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He is back to back with Jordan Addison in the early rest of season rankings. Who would you rather have rest of season Jordan Addison with everything going on with the Vikings offense or Xavier Worthy?
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As crazy as it sounds, Addison, because at least with a boom bust player I can, you know, envision a potential boom game from him in the right circumstances, in the right matchup in the right mindset for JJ McCarthy or perhaps another quarterback. Unfortunately. Yeah, there's, it's, it's, it's tough. But at least I know, you know, from a talent wise, I know there's a ceiling there. Unfortunately, I don't think that ceiling exists right now with Xavier Worthy and maybe no offense to his talent. Maybe it's just he's again, he had the soldier injury playing through it. We know that's an issue and he's gotten banged up here and there throughout the season. So perhaps there's just a lot going on with him that's not allowing him to play at his optimal level there.
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All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Thanks everybody for tuning in, not just this week, but throughout the season as we've been given some of this trade advice. Hope it's helped everybody make some moves that have gotten them in a spot to make the playoffs and hopefully go on a run here. So we appreciate everybody for tuning in and, and yeah, have done the best we can to help you here. If you have other questions, like maybe it's like a dynasty angle on a trade or just, you know, add drop questions, anything that, you know we're not gonna be able to address here on this particular version of the show going forward, hit us up on Social Discord. Like everywhere else, we will still be bringing out other types of content as well. For Tara, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TV Tik Tok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
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This is an I Heart podcast.
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Guaranteed human.