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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
5 Moves You Need to Make Week Ahead Of Week 7 (Ep. 1771)
00:16:39
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- [00:00]
Tara Roberts
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
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- [00:40]
Ryan
Hello everybody. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. I'm Ryan, warmly joined, as I am every Monday by Tara Roberts. We are talking five moves to make before Week 7. We're not halfway through the NFL season, Tara, but we're like borderline halfway through the fantasy regular season, which is pretty bonkers.
- [00:58]
Tara Roberts
It's flying. It's flying so fast. It feels like it's just week two, but we're flying in here. So yeah, let's go. Let's make some buys and sells here.
- [01:07]
Ryan
It gets late pretty early in fantasy football when you are, you know, 2 and 4, 1 and 5, hopefully not oh and 6 can get away from you pretty quickly here. So hopefully that's not the situation our listeners are in. But of course sometimes bad luck strikes and you get hit with injuries or whatever the reason may be and you are looking to make some moves here. Quick reminder for everybody that all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found@fantasyprose.com rankings. We've got some buys, we've got some sales. We've got a drop in here for you, Tara. Start us off with a buy.
- [01:41]
Tara Roberts
I'm gonna start us off with buying Mike Evans here. We're gonna buy on the injury here to try and play a little gamesmanship here because the Bucks receiving core is, is, it's completely decimated a mecca. Buka going down was absolutely dreadful. Here we are down to Sterling Shepherd, Tez Johnson and Cameron Johnson here. And when we look at this, you know, you could say, hey, let me go and make some waiver claims on these guys and see if something could pop here because we saw a touch, a couple of touchdowns between the Johnsons there, but none of them, I don't know, are really capable of carrying this offense. And Baker Mayfield is on fire, so he's going to have to throw to somebody in this little potential MVP season here. So we have to decide who we want to target here now with Mike Evans being the person here who has the most likely chance of coming back sooner rather than later here. That's who we're going to buy in here. I know it might feel uncomfortable buying in on an injury, but we've got a mechanic, Booker, who is getting his hamstring checked out on Tuesday. So as of the filming of this video, we don't know how bad it is. But generally speaking, when it comes to hamstring injuries, they're multiple weeks. We're seeing it here with God. With Mike Evans, you got Chris Godwin, who has already technically been ruled out by Todd Bowles here, saying that both him and Bucky Irving are probably going to miss this week here. So if they've already ruled him out, we might be looking for an extended out here with Godwin. So it might be an opportunity for Mike Evans to come back and slide back in here and take control of this offense in this receiving core here. When we look back to Mike Evans production in the early season, I know it was underwhelming here, but we have to consider that a lot of those were matchup driven. He had games against Atlanta where he faced A.J. terrell, game against Houston versus Derek Stingley, game against the jets versus Sauce Garner. He just had a very bad lineup early on that did favor Baker Mayfield targeting a mecha Buka here. So with the schedule getting a little bit more favorable for him, matchups coming in strong here and the opportunity to be the wide receiver one, with Baker Mayfield dealing here, we can take a chance here and buy in on the injury dip with Mike Evans.
- [03:46]
Ryan
What do you think? Like, let's say a month from now, Evans and Igbuka and Godwin are all on the field again at the same time for the first time? What do you expect that usage to look like? Do you think it will be Evans stepping back into the alpha role and Ibuka is now like the strong number two? Do you think Ibuka has done enough to be the number one and Evans is now kind of the aging number two? If they're, if they're all healthy, what do you expect that distribution to look like?
- [04:11]
Tara Roberts
I think the first big thing is that I think Chris Godwin is unfortunately the odd man out here that feels like it. We've already seen him with a book to take a backseat there, and I think that more than likely Ibuka can be the one that kind of takes over here and is the wide receiver one. But it should be closer as we get into matchups that aren't necessarily those aggressive shutdown matchups here. But yeah, I think a Mecca is here to stay. So once he bounces back from this hamstring injury. You know, if you're a. I mean we're not talk, we're saying by by Mike Evans here. But if you're in a really good place here and want to take that chance, Buuka, that's an option as well here. You want to buy into a piece of this offense here for the Bucks and Mike Evans is the one with the more immediate usage and then Mecca Buka is the one that probably has a little higher upside there over Evans.
- [04:56]
Ryan
Who's the next player that you are buying right now?
- [04:59]
Tara Roberts
The buy here for me is it's Travis etn. I've talked about him before as a buy here and it's a good opportunity here. His value is always lower than it should be. He is the clear RB one here, but especially after two subpar games where he's been under 10 fantasy points, it is an excellent time to buy. I'm not shocked that he had a couple of down weeks here. These were matchups against a Kansas City defense that is extremely strong against the run. We just watched them hold David Montgomery and Demir Gibbs of all people to both under 10 fantasy points. Seattle, who has been incredibly stout against the run all season. So these were games where all odds were for ETN to, you know, underperform unfortunately here. But when we look at the upcoming schedule here, there are better matchups ahead here. If these kind of performances were against teams like Miami or Dallas, I would be panicking and be concerned here. But again, we're looking at a guy who is the lead back here and it's unquestioned at this point. I know that people love BAAL Tootin and the potential for him in this offense and there was a lot of thought earlier that we got that tank bigs betrayed and that Bashel Tutin would be the one that would take over. But snaps and carries and everything has been very clearly favoring Travis etn. Do I do I buy into the Jags offense as a hole in their big turnaround that they've had? Probably not entirely, but it is a fantastic system here. The Jags are holding it together very well. Trevor Lawrence is adapting and for all of his struggles, the games are at least close here and they are, you know, trending in a positive direction here. So we're looking forward to good things here for Travis etn. He's a nice BILO candidate here with the underwhelming production.
- [06:32]
Ryan
Where is he rest of season for you in your running back rankings?
- [06:35]
Tara Roberts
He is top 15 for me. I still Feel very confident in him.
- [06:39]
Ryan
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- [07:18]
Tara Roberts
Yeah, unfortunately it's going to be Jameson Williams that we're selling on. It was a good game. Six reception, seven targets, 66 yards, touchdown here. But it was a weird game. The Giant or the Lions weren't exactly pushing high volume here. Amon Ross St. Brown had nine receptions, which is in line with what you expect from him, but it was only for 45 yards. This was an outlier game. Jameson, seven targets were what we expect for him, but this was kind of a boom game for him. And again we talked about this when we talked about the matchup there with Kansas City. It's just a bad matchup from a running perspective. This was an outlier performance. So it's no coincidence that we had Jameson go off in a game where it was a bad matchup here for Gibbs and Montgomery. So when we look ahead here and we look at their schedule, you gotta kind of look ahead and kind of figure out here when can we identify these potential boom games for Jameson Williams because I think they're very identifiable here. We've seen two boom games from him. One boom game was when it was an ideal matchup with Chicago, an aggressive volume game. And then this one here where it was just a bad matchup from a run perspective. So you're looking for either situations where there's going to be a running back group that is shut down or it's going to be an extremely high volume matchup. And realistically There are only three matchups on the schedule for the remaining 10 games. They're going to kind of shape out in that scenario here. The floor is nasty for Jameson Williams, unfortunately. It's literally like a single fantasy point there with one reception. We have seen it in a game here. He's a Boom bus receiver there and if you can identify the games, that's not good because unfortunately there are a whole bunch that we're not going to really have usable production out of him. Take this opportunity to sell high and hope that people forget the minuscule fantasy performances that we have had over the past several weeks here.
- [09:01]
Ryan
I always like to point out when we're talking about these boom bust receivers also that sometimes the booms aren't even that high. Like his best big games are 108 yards and a touchdown and 66 yards in a touchdown. That's not like a league winning week. They were both well for this week. He's currently a wide receiver one. There are still two more games to play so that's subject to change. The other week, back in week two this big 108 yards in a touchdown game, he was wide receiver 10. That's in half PPR scoring. So it's not like his boom weeks have even been like oh this is a top two performance on the week and he single handedly won you the week because he got you 30 points. It was 17.8 fantasy points and 15.6 fantasy points. And again that's half PPR scoring because he doesn't catch that many passes. So I mean, you know, last night aside, so it it even again even when the boom is not a league winning week and then you also have to deal with the bust factor. Like I'm totally with you on he is the exact type of player where if I can't make a trade this time, I'm going to be looking to trade him the next time he has a boom week and I'll be like okay, this is the week, go sell him now coming off this high and see if anybody's buying it to being long term. So, so I'm right there with you on Jameson Williams. I'm. I'm sadder to see this next name on your list. Who else are you selling?
- [10:21]
Tara Roberts
Be sad because I mean it was a great game. Here we are selling Kimani Vidal and it's not him, it's not him at all. The performance was incredible and I know why you're sad. It's 18, 18 attempts, 124 yards, dominated, receiving work, got the touchdown. It was amazing. Probably sad, probably for the same reason I am because he was a, he was a late round rookie darling there last year. We were hoping that he was going to ascend at the time when we were looking at the Chargers offense and we weren't really sure what that backfield was going to look like. And a lot of us thought, hey, it be Kamani Vidal. Like he could be the Isaiah Pacheco. So there's a lot of people that are very partial to him. I drafted him in a dynasty rookie draft and I, you know, had given up hope when they drafted a Maureen Hampton that this would ever be a thing here. So it's awesome. But I have zero, and we have zero reason to trust the Chargers here, unfortunately. There have been reports that the Chargers are in the market for a running back, quote unquote, either a lead back or a depth piece. We know that there are lots of available potential running backs on bad teams, potentially available. Even if they say they're not available, they're probably available there on the market. There's no guarantee that Vidal is a lead back moving forward, unfortunately. And then even when you look at the Chargers, they told us like, you know, through reports right through the grapevine that Haskins was going to get the start, but it was definitely Kamani's backfield there. He, the first Chargers play was a run by Vidal. So this was. He dominated in stops. It wasn't a hot hand situation. He looked fantastic. They did exactly opposite of what the reports were. So I'm not saying that he won't have high upside if he remains the lead back. I do have very high hopes for him because the Chargers offense is really good. Despite, despite the offensive line issues, the lead back does put up numbers. Like, they've been struggling dealing with massive injuries, but Amari and Hampton was putting up numbers. So to see Kamani Vidal come around and put up those same numbers, you're like, okay, cool, this is our dude. But fortunately at this point, can we really trust him? We just watched the Cardinals flip flop their backfield last week. There's no loyalty to these guys off of practice squad, unfortunately. So if you need him, you're like, you're hoping and you gotta have this like, okay, hold on to him, start him and ride it as long as you can. But if you have the opportunity to sell him off to a running back needy team, you might want to do that.
- [12:35]
Ryan
The other thing too, in terms of making the case to sell Videl, is that it was Miami, which is like such an enticing matchup on the ground like you want to. I mean they're enticing matchup in multiple ways, but like on the ground they're like, might be the worst run defense in football. So like, not only is there the question mark of, you know, are they going to add another running Back when will Hampton return? Will Haskins get more like there's all these different, you know, moving variables for just for Videl's usage, let alone the fact that this was this amazing matchup. He rightfully took advantage like this is what you should have looked like against a matchup like this if you're a good player. So it's great shots to him. You know, he looked awesome, but I think, you know, the Miami defense makes a lot of running backs look awesome. It makes me wonder what Hampton would have looked like if he had been healthy for this game and what kind of beastly performance we missed out on.
- [13:23]
Tara Roberts
So, Rico Dowdle game there?
- [13:26]
Ryan
Yeah, yeah. Pretty much could have been. I do want to let everybody know about chalkboard. You can cash in on your NFL picks this season with Chalkboard. Simply choose more or less on your favorite player stats to win up to 5,000 times your money. See why over a million fans have already locked in with chalkboard to turn their sports knowledge into cold, hard cash. Whether you're locking in the perfect lineup with alternate lines or debating whether to take the money and cash out, Chalkboard is the premier destination to win big all season long. Download today and get a 100% deposit match and free pick. Get off the bench and on the board. Chalkboard. All right, Tara, we've got one more player you are dropping. Who is it?
- [14:10]
Tara Roberts
I hate to do the drops. I hate clearing the drops. No one ever likes them. I mean, sometimes it's, you know, a blessing. You. You scare the player into popping off. But unfortunately, I don't think it's happening here. We're dropping Jacob Myers here. Three straight games of seven fantasy points, zero touchdowns on the year. Four straight weeks under 10 fantasy points in an offense where Geno Smith looks legitimately awful, like he reverted to another time, unfortunately. And you can't even have hope for transitioning to another quarterb. You know, your backup option there is Kenny Pickett. It's a concerning situation here. This might just be the new reality for Jacoby Myers. I'm not sure that it's him. I think it might just be a weird. A weird unalignment, unfortunately, with Geno Smith there because Trey Tucker is looking like he is the wide receiver one of this offense. And the biggest concern here is that we have had two straight games with no Brock Bowers. And theoretically, when you look at the alignment and the way that Bowers plays and Jacoby Myers plays and this should have been an uptick in volume for Jacobi Myers. So we have Bowers exit and we have zero increase in production, unfortunately from Meyer. So this was kind of test here. I was willing to hold on and see, hey, what does this look like when Bowers is out? Can we get a turnaround here? Unfortunately we didn't. So I mean you can compare it to a situation like we were talking about with Jameson Williams where at least Jameson Williams offers you a little bit of something. It's a low ceiling. It's not anything fancy, but it can get you something. We have zero evidence at this point outside of week one that Jacoby Myers can get us anything at this point. The offense is bad. The ceiling doesn't exist. It might just be time to move on.
- [15:47]
Ryan
In the consensus rest of season rankings, Myers is still about 20 spots ahead of Tucker. Would you go against that? Would you trade Myers straight up for Tucker? I would.
- [15:57]
Tara Roberts
And I, and I understand why it's been because I, because I too have been tilting a little bit in the rankings trying to keep them up there slightly because you're like, okay, it's not, you know, the floor, floor is kind of there. Like, you know, we just, we saw good in week one here. So I've been hesitant to drop him down as well. But I think that we all, myself included, are probably over ranking him at this point. On a weekly basis he should have been ranked significantly lower than where he had we had him at. And rest of season it needs to be lower too.
- [16:28]
Ryan
We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Those were five moves to make before week seven for Tara. I'm Ryan. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [17:18]
Ad Read / Sponsor
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- [17:45]
Tara Roberts
This is an I heart podcast.