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6 Must-Start Players for Week 10 | The Primer (Ep. 1827)
00:21:01
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- [00:00]
Derrick Brown
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
Seth Wilcock
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Seth Wilcock
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Derrick Brown
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- [00:35]
Seth Wilcock
All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. It's the week 10 primer episode, so you know what time it is. We've got our top six sleeper starts that have matchups to Target coming your way. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and I'm joined by a man who surely, absolutely has to have an Alec Pierce jersey in his closet at this point after another sensational call on the former Cincinnati Bearcat last week. But that was then and this is now. And of course, It's Derrick Brown. Dbro, how are you feeling as we head into week 10?
- [01:06]
Derrick Brown
Feeling good, man. Feeling good. A lot of good calls for both of us on this show over the last few weeks. Had some misses, too, you know, some A.J. p. Ryan gets hurt and doesn't do anything but that. That's how that goes, man. Like on this show, we're really trying to highlight players that are on that fringe and whether you're struggling for options. You got bye weeks, you got injuries, you got deep leagues you're trying to figure out. That's the crux of this show. And this week, I'll just pull back the curtain. It was tougher, man. This week was tougher to try to find options and stuff with so many good teams on a buy. Yeah, so many trades that happened in the NFL this last week. So many split committees and stuff, backfields and players with bad matchups. So before we dive into all the players, I just want to give the preface of this. We are not talking about any running backs. Running back is a giant crap fest for fantasy right now.
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Seth Wilcock
Whether it's.
- [01:59]
Derrick Brown
Whether it's matchups, backfields, all that kind of stuff, it's. It's just bad. So we're going to highlight a bunch of wide receivers. We're actually going to talk about two tight ends on this show that I think are in great matchups. And if you're in a really rough spot, both of these guys do carry flex appeal. This week and you might be in a situation where, dude, I'm in one of my leagues where I picked up both these guys we're going to talk about later and I'm flexing two tight ends right now. That's where we're at. That's where we're at.
- [02:25]
Seth Wilcock
Seth, the old tight end heavy approach here in week 10. I love it, man. I'm in those streets with you right now. I'm deciding between a few of the tight ends we'll touch on later in the show. So I appreciate the transparency there. We are going to help everyone though as we continue to shift through the rest of the season. Excited for it and before we fire things up, shout to our friends, our family and even maybe some foes joining us on the Fancy Pros YouTube channel or in the audio feed. Thank you so much for all the support this season. Please do us a quick favor and give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content. Also, make sure you subscribe to the channel. If you're new, help us get to 300, 000 subscribers. We'd really, really appreciate it. Also, if you want a chance to win a sign Justin Jefferson Minnesota Vikings Jersey for absolute free courtesy of our friends over at pristine auction.com all you need to do is get head to fantasypros.com contest complete the form either a go ahead and download the Fantasy Pros app, B leave a review for the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast or C follow us on X Instagram or Tick Tock. We are at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you're gonna receive. And we will of course announce a winner right here on the program nearing the beginning of next month. And if you're watching on YouTube, please subscribe and ring the bell so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and claim your prize. If you are new, that lucky winner and dbro. No, no, Justin Jefferson, of course in the Sleepers video this week. But you do have his quarterback, one J.J. mcCarthy.
- [03:52]
Derrick Brown
I do, man. And. And look, everybody could just tell, you know, say I'm biased. I know I'm a J.J. mcCarthy Truther. I will absolutely carry my truther card since day one. I mean, dude, he's been the QB11 and QB13 and fantasy scoring and his two healthy starts and the matchup is there this week. Like we know the Ravens are going to push them and they're still a defense that we can target, man. Since week five, Baltimore's given up the 11th most passing yards per game and they're allowing the fourth highest success rate per drawback. So if I think he can succeed while dealing with the pressure that the Lions brought last week and in only his second healthy start of the season, yeah, I think JJ McCarthy can definitely succeed this week.
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Seth Wilcock
Do you think the recent stronger performances from that Baltimore secondary is a change in scheme? Is it just, hey, we're going up against two last week. We were going up against Caleb Williams the week before. Because while both those quarterbacks had over 260 yards passing, no passing touchdowns in two weeks straight for a Baltimore secondary that was just leaking touchdowns to everybody.
- [04:52]
Derrick Brown
I think it's a little bit of both. I think part of it is the quarterback play. But if you watch the Baltimore and Dolphins game too, you, you also understand that game could have gone very, very differently. Like we had a giant, like a long completion of Jalen Waddle that got wiped off the board because of a tripping good BS penalty to Ollie Gordon, some red zone nonsense. So like Tua could have come away with like two passing touchdowns that he didn't come away with. There was a lot of like, problems with execution for the Dolphins, but the, the, the takeaway for that is the Bears were able to move the ball pretty decently and so were the Dolphins.
- [05:27]
Seth Wilcock
Yeah.
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Derrick Brown
So what do we think the Vikings can do in this, this Vikings team? I mean, the offensive line is getting healthier, so we should see better. Better pass protection up front and the matchup is there. So I think JJ can have a really strong week. And to your point, like, I, I think the Ravens past defense has improved, but they're still not a unit that like, I'm scared of. Seth.
- [05:49]
Seth Wilcock
Yeah, they're going to hope for some addition by some traction. They of course dealt Jair Alexander to the Eagles this past week, so we'll see what that does to the secondary. But I'm looking forward to J.J. mcCarthy. I was really excited with what he did in the first half of last week's game against Detroit and then kind of, you know, slowed things down a little bit, took his foot off the gas. But I think that was more, hey, we're up on a really good team. Let's just play conservative. No, big mistake.
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Derrick Brown
So yeah, that was more just sitting on a lead and trying to get a win for Minnesota. That's what that was.
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Seth Wilcock
Yeah, absolutely. Let's go to the wide receiver position where you're going to the Windy City with the New York Giants coming to town.
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Derrick Brown
Yeah, man, look, I think people need to be flexing Darius Slayton this week. If you looked at the box score for Slayton last week, you're like, oh, it was a solid game, dude. It could have been a monster game. He dropped a long touchdown in the end zone when he got hit big, that would have put him up close to 100 receiving yards. And the thing that I, I, I really want to specifically highlight, and if you've already read the primary, you know where I'm going with this, is the Bears run defense has improved over the last few weeks. So you looking at this matchup just in general, it is a really good matchup for Jackson. Dart is a really good matchup for the passing game for the Giants. And Darius Slayton coming along for the ride, man. Where Chicago since week five, they're giving up the seventh most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. So Darius Slayton, he's kind of danced around maybe having a big game. Like, well, a lot of drops, a lot of problems executing have really hurt him. Like, he would have caught that big target like last week. We're talking about. He's close to 100 yards with a score. He caught either one of the, the, the downfield targets versus the Saints much bigger day before even going out with a hamstring injury. So Slayton is a guy that I think he has been dancing around, having a big day in fantasy and in the box score the last few weeks. I think it does come together this week for him.
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Seth Wilcock
Yeah. Darius Slayton just always so consistent, man. It feels like almost every single year but 20, 24, this guy, since he's been with the team, has led them in receiving yards. Always pops up down the stretch as someone we need to add to our teams. And look, man, like this Bear secondary. I mean, everyone remembers last week T. Higgins made these guys look like little boys out there. Made them look like they were playing against some, some peewee football players. Right? So 7 for 121 and 2 for T. Higgins. Jamar Chase should have had a touchdown, was on that anytime touchdown. But he still had 6 for 111 on 8 targets. Even Yoshi Voss got in the end zone as well on 5 for 66. So I think Darius Slayton is up here. And I also, like Wanda Robinson, is a pretty nice play as well in your wide receiver two position. So, Derek, let's go overseas now and like you would go anywhere in the world for Alec Pierce. I feel like you would go to Brazil, you would go to Australia, go to the depth of, of Antarctica for him, but you're going to over There in Germany where he'll be facing the Falcons.
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Derrick Brown
Yeah, dude, I mean, look, we talked about this last week. We're back on it again. And it just goes back to the coverage matchup. And I keep talking about the coverage data. Does fricking matter, people? I mean, just look at what he's done in the matchups that he's performed in. Like last week, he was the wide receiver 14 and weekly scoring at a 24% target share, 115 in the box score, and a 33% first read share. And it all goes back to the matchup against single high coverage. And now he went from the Pittsburgh Steelers to the Atlanta secondary, which runs single high at the highest rate in the NFL. Seth. 73 of their. 73 of their percent. I can't talk. 73% of their defensive snaps are single high. And the reason I keep bringing this up, man, because Alec Pierce versus Single High has elite wide receiver one per route numbers. He has gotten a 27 target share. He has produced 3.69 yards per route run. That is a ridiculous number. And he's also garnered a 32% first read share. And this Falcon secondary is taking a step back, man. Like, since week five, they're giving up, quietly giving up the 12th most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. So whether you want to talk about coverage, you want to talk about the secondary taking a step back, all the things line up yet again for Alec Pierce in week 10.
- [09:55]
Seth Wilcock
Yeah, man, I mean, I will. I'm willing to throw him out there. Once again, the kid's been on a heater. Like, there's no advanced metrics or anything that really pop off the page when you're talking about Alec Pierce. But what's popping off the page to me is a secondary that, hey, we just let Demario Douglas, who wasn't really thought as a deep threat, go for four for 100. Stefan Diggs found the end zone. The two last weeks alone, Derek, they've allowed four receiving touchdowns. Two wide receivers, that's the. The second most right there. Tied with Washington and Dallas. So they are not as good. Like, is AJ Terrell not as good as we thought he was or is. Is this just like an overall. Hey, you can't be Superman on the entire secondary type of thing.
- [10:33]
Derrick Brown
I've never been a big A.J. terrell, Stan. I've done this for too many years and seen too many stretches where AJ Terrell is like one of those corners that he's very. He. He's very hot and cold. He'll Go through stretches where he looks like one of the best corners in the NFL and then you'll see a four or five game stretch after that where he looks like he can't cover anybody and everybody's burning in deep. So it depends on when you, when, when you attack AJ Terrell. Like when have you faced him? So no, I mean it's not like I think he's very talented but if you look year over year over year, a lot of volatility to his game.
- [11:11]
Seth Wilcock
Yeah, he's not one of those shutdown cornerbacks like we think down there in Houston with, with Stingley. He's not someone like Sauce Garner who's now on the move as well to, to join Alec Pierce there in Indianapolis. And yeah man, the vibes have to be high over in that team and I would like to grab any piece of this offense I really can at this point. So let's keep it moving though. And you're going back to that Minnesota Baltimore game for your next sleeper start at the wide receiver position.
- [11:36]
Derrick Brown
And and I will give this with a caveat. This one is it's a deep start. This is a deeply guy. This is if you are struggling for flex plays. But I think he's viable. And a lot of this comes down to like it's the coverage matchup. It's the fact that the Vikings have struggled to, they've struggled to defend wide receivers in the perimeter just in general over the last few weeks, much less defend them deep. Like since week five, Minnesota is allowing the most PPR points per target department of wide receivers and the second highest decompletion rate and deep passing yards. So you look at and you marry that with Rashad Bateman. And going back to the coverage matchup, I think there's some volatility and kind of like muddiness to his numbers this year because of you're looking at a long stretch with Cooper Rush also being the quarterback in the passing game tanking. But if you go back to last season with Lamar Jackson and stuff the Minnesota Vikings over the last two years with Brian Flores, they are too high heavy. They're top three, top five every single year. And in too high coverage this year, Bateman's numbers don't look great versus too high coverage. But again, Cooper Rush is your quarterback. Nobody's numbers look good with Cooper Rush under center. But if you go back to last year, seth Rashad Bateman versus too high coverage, this dude had 2.43 yards per route run and 0.55 fantasy points per route run and why do I bring up these two metrics on a per route basis? He was freaking fantastic. And if you look at a, a sample set Last year of 230 qualifying wide receivers and tight ends versus too high coverage in those two statistical categories, Rashad Bateman ranked 13th and 22nd.
- [13:13]
Seth Wilcock
Wow.
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Derrick Brown
So you, you marry all of this. I'm not sitting here and telling people that Rashad Bateman is a lock set. Forget type of player you need if you need upside at a flex spot. If you are in a dire straits with like, I don't know, there is nobody left. I've got, we talked about earlier today on a stream, if you got Garrett Wilson or who have you and they get ruled out and you're like, I don't know what to freaking do right now. Rashad Baitman's probably on there on every single wave or wire out there. And if he's available and you're in a pinch, yeah, he could pay off in a big way this week.
- [13:51]
Seth Wilcock
Yeah, he's one of those guys who runs a ton of routes.
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Derrick Brown
Right.
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Seth Wilcock
I mean, he's always out there. And even with DeAndre Hopkins, I thought maybe his snap share would go down a little bit this season. It really hasn't. He's still floating somewhere between 70, 80 of the snaps most weeks. And for me, like, I don't mind attaching myself if I need a wild card play. This is what this is. This is a bit of a wild card play. You're down in your, your matchup. You maybe need someone who can take you over the top. It could be Rashad Bateman and I love our guy Jake Seeley over here at FP and from the Athletic saying before the season started, don't draft Rashad Bateman unless you can pick the games that you can play him. I think this is one of the few that you want to play Rashad Bateman. So hopefully you didn't draft him, but hopefully he's still hanging out there on some waiver wires that you can fire him up this week. Before we get to the tight ends, a real quick reminder that you can dominate your fans football leagues with Fantasy Pros Premium now available for free for six months when you deposit and place your first wager and at any of our partner sportsbooks, that includes our friends over at Hard Rock. Bet, baby. This is the easiest free way to get full access to our top fantasy tools all season long. Just go to fancyprose.com premium to get yourself started. And Dbro, we're going double tight end, tight end Heavy this week for you. Who do you have first?
- [15:03]
Derrick Brown
First guy up here is Kate Otten. He's a tight end, 17 and ECR. And I know people are going to look at this. I'm going to say, look, he's tight in 18 and fantasy points per game. Why the heck are you freaking talking about K Dot quietly under the surface, I he started out with doing absolutely nothing, nothing to begin the season since week five, Seth, since week five he has a 19 target share. He's averaged 59 receiving yards per game with 2.14 yards per route run. He doesn't have any red zone targets or deep targets. So the high leverage usage has not been there. But again, we could also say, okay, well fine, he hasn't scored a touchdown till this point of the season. He's due. Okay, you can frame it that way if you want to go last half full. But this all comes back to if you were struggling at tight end and depending on bye weeks, that could easily be the case. Jake Ferguson, you could have that is out this week. Other top tight ends are out this week. You can need a streamer or a flex play. Kate Otten could easily fit the bill, man, because it's not only is the volume trending in his direction, but the matchup is definitively there, man. Like New England has given up the seventh most receiving yards per game and the seventh most fantasy points per game to tight ends. So however you want to slice this up, emerging role, banged up passing attack. You know, Chris Godwin's probably not going to play again. So like who's Baker Mayfield going to lean on in this matchup? Kate Otten could really pay off for people.
- [16:30]
Seth Wilcock
Yeah. The thing I like about Kate Otten and tight ends like him is he's on the field a lot. Right. Like sometimes I get annoyed by these tight ends that they're not out there on third down. They're not much of a blocking threat and you're just getting like limited exposure to them. Kate on right now, among all tight ends, Derek number one in Snap share 94. And you do make a good point. Like the red zone targets haven't been where we wanted. The deep targets aren't there. But with also probably no Bucky Irving back out there again too. Like they got to start leaning on him here. Fifth in route participation. So I don't hate a guy out here in Kate Auden who is seeing the targets as well. Like you go back through the game logs starting all the way back in week four, his target share right now, four targets in week four, five, the next week, six, six, nine and five. In a week where I am struggling to fill positions, I think you could do worse than Kate Autumn.
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Derrick Brown
Also, to your point about the matchup, the New England Patriots are not going to allow the Bucks to run. They.
- [17:23]
Seth Wilcock
They.
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Derrick Brown
You cannot run versus the New England Patriots. So the other thing, if we want to talk about just schematically and stuff, if you're unable to run the ball and impose your will there, you're going to have to pass it. So if the Bucks want to move the ball up and down the field. Hello, Kate Otten here. Here's your easy button. This is how, how you make things easier for Baker Mayfield and this offense because you're not going to be able to run the ball like that. That's tried and true. The Patriots run defense has been top five, top ten the entire freaking season. I don't think that they fall off the map this week. So yes, it it, it's all the parts and pieces for K. Dot.
- [17:59]
Seth Wilcock
Yeah, give me K in a game that has one of the higher totals on the slate as well. So we're expecting points down there in the Bay Area. Derek, let's come home with one of my favorite players on this entire slate. It's my best bet of the week as well. And you're on him for fancy purposes.
- [18:15]
Derrick Brown
And I'm going to say I I look, we know that C.J. stroud is out. I don't care if it's Davis Mills. I don't care if Davis are a center. Don't even care. Doesn't matter to me because the fact of it is is that go just give me your box score analysis from last week. Like Dalton Schultz produced last week with Davis Mills playing most of that game and he's going to do it again this week. Dalton Schultz last week with Davis Mills playing most of the game was tight end seven. In fantasy, you're telling me that he cannot be a top 12 tight end, that he cannot be a strong flex play for a player that honestly, he's been having a quietly really solid season. He just hasn't been scoring the touchdowns. Like when the matchup has presented itself. Dalton Schultz has played really freaking well. Like, everybody wanted to chase the game against Seattle. They said, oh my gosh, like, look at Dalton Schultz, dude, Seattle was like a top five matchup for tight ends. And then everybody chased it and they're like, oh, wait, oh, he didn't do anything in the next week. Guess what? That's because the matchup fell off the matchup is back for Dalton Schultz this week, man. Like, Dalton Schultz gets to play the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have given up the second most receiving yards and the second most schedule adjusted fantasy points per game. Two tight ends. So you can dislike, you could say, oh, it's gross. We're talking about Dalton Schultz. You could dislike the quarterback play. You can talk about all that all you want to the matchup lines up, the usage has been there and Dalton Schultz is going to have another strong game, man.
- [19:41]
Seth Wilcock
Yeah, I talked about it on the Best Bet show over on BP NFL earlier this week, Derek. And my best bet, Dalton Schultz over three and a half receptions. I'm locking that in, man. Like he's had an average of 5.3 receptions per game since Week 3. Like the Texans went through this really interesting point where, hey, can we get Higgins? Can we get Noel involved? Is it going to be Hutch? Can Christian Kirk get back healthy? No, no, no, no, no. The one thing that has been there outside of Nico Collins, who has been a little bit underwhelming this season has been Dalton Schultz, man. And saw eight targets last week. You said it with Davis Mills playing most that game. You spoke on the matchup as well. And, and Titans have hit their receptions prop against the Jaguars this year in six of eight games, including Schultz himself. He played them in Week 3. He went 5 for 39 on six targets. I think it's even potentially more now that they realize, hey, this is our second best pass catcher. We got to lean into it.
- [20:32]
Derrick Brown
So Seth's giving out winners here, baby. You'd love to see it. Sleeper, pick some winners. I love it.
- [20:36]
Seth Wilcock
That's how we do it here, man. That is going to do it for us though, on this episode of the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. Comment down below your favorite week 10 sleeper starts. We want to hear from you. And while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing to the channel. If you're new for Derrick Brown, I'm Seth Wilcock. Take care, y'.
- [20:53]
Derrick Brown
All.
- [20:53]
Seth Wilcock
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at end the YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [21:36]
Derrick Brown
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- [22:46]
Seth Wilcock
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Derrick Brown
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