FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: 6 Must-Start Players for Week 11 | The Primer (Ep. 1841)

Date: November 13, 2025
Hosts: Seth Wilcock & Derek Brown

Overview

In this week’s “Primer” episode, host Seth Wilcock and analyst Derek Brown break down six must-start fantasy football sleepers for NFL Week 11. They dive deep into favorable matchups, highlight under-the-radar options, and provide actionable insights for fantasy managers grappling with injuries and bye weeks. The show is loaded with data, context, and strong opinions—plus several sleeper picks who could tilt matchups.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Quarterback Sleeper: Bo Nix vs Kansas City Chiefs

• Sleeper Call: Bo Nix (Denver)
• Why: KC’s defense has regressed since Week 6, particularly in pass defense. Nix is surprisingly second in deep pass attempts, eighth in red zone rush attempts, and fifth in passing touchdowns.
• Derek Brown (02:48):

  “Bo Nix... is sneakily a top 12 quarterback this week. Since week six, Kansas City's pass defense has taken a step back... the matchup’s actually really good for both their wide receivers.”

• Seth Wilcock on Nix Usage (04:27):

  “I would have not thought Bo Nix is currently second in pass attempts... and while he has some interceptible passes, he’s also fifth in passing touchdowns.”

Key Stat: KC since Week 6 is only 15th in yards per attempt allowed, 4th highest CPOE, and 12th highest success rate per dropback.

2. Wide Receiver Deep Dives

a. Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers at NY Giants)

• Status: Watson is WR39 in ECR, but Derek sees him higher.
• Why: Huge downfield role (25.8 ADOT, 50% deep targets), Giants secondary is vulnerable to deep passes, and Packers’ receiver injuries open the window.
• Derek Brown (06:32):

  “Christian Watson... when he’s targeted it is down the field. … This secondary for the Giants has given up the fifth most deep passing yards per game.”

• Role-agnostic: Watson’s value isn't dependent on the availability of Dobbs, Wicks, or Golden.
• Seth Wilcock (09:15):

  “[He’s] averaging over a hundred air yards per game... you would have to think with Jameis Winston after slinging it for the Giants, maybe there’s some short fields he can take advantage of.”

b. Tyler Lockett (Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas)

• Note: Transitioned to full-time player last week, surpassing Trey Tucker.
• Reason to Start: 22.2% target share last week, 1.9 yards/route run, strong game total, faces a Dallas defense giving up the 2nd most PPR points to slot WRs.
• Derek Brown (09:48):

  "Tyler Lockett ... doubled up Trey Tucker in target share ... against Dallas, the only game with a 50 or higher total on this slate."

• Route Share Focus:

  “I don’t look at snap shares, I look at route shares. ... Are you running routes? That’s all that matters.”

• Route share last week: 65.7%, expected to rise.

c. Calvin Austin (Pittsburgh Steelers at Bengals)

• Why: Full-time player with 16.5% target share; expected uptick with DK Metcalf likely shadowed by DJ Turner, opening opportunities vs. weaker coverage. Already 3 top-36 WR finishes this year.
• Derek Brown (13:30):

  “Calvin Austin could pay that off this week ... if he ends up with [4 for 40 and a TD], that’s 14 points in PPR land.”

• Matchup Exploitation: Facing Cam Taylor-Britt and Dax Hill, who both allow high catch rates and passer ratings.

d. Jaden Higgins (Houston Texans vs Tennessee)

• Usage: Underutilized so far (49% routes last week, 15.6% target share, 29% targets per route run). But, huge opportunity if role increases.
• Upside: Tennessee's defense gives up the 5th most yards, 2nd most PPR/game to perimeter WRs.
• Derek Brown (16:15):

  “Is there risk and worry? Yes… but there’s also some upside to be had because there is a door that has not been left open but could get kicked open by Jaden Higgins this week."

• Red Zone: Last week, 2 red zone and 1 deep target on limited routes.
• Risk: Houston could get out ahead and run more, limiting pass volume.

3. Tight End Streamer: Zach Ertz (Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins, International Game)

• ECR: TE16, but Derek calls him a confident TE1 streamer.
• Opportunity: No Terry McLaurin; Ertz has a 17.3% target share.
• Matchup: Miami allows 5th most TE yards, 3rd most TE fantasy points, 7th highest yards/reception.
• Derek Brown (20:06):

  “Zach Ertz is a good play this week.”

• Seth Wilcock, on usage stats (21:35):

  “Even last week... the blocking tight end out of Georgia Tech, he also found the end zone. ... There’s actually some really sneaky upside here on Zach Ertz.”

• Prop Bet Talk: Ertz anytime TD is +195 to +200; over 3.5 receptions and 39.5 receiving yards are strong bets.

4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Segments

• Derek Brown, on Bo Nix (02:48):

  "People see Steve Spagnolo and the Kansas City Chiefs defense and they say oh no, we’re going to get bad Bo this week. But I actually think we could get good Bo.”

• Derek Brown, on route share vs. snaps (11:58):

  “Snap shares can lie to you... What I care is if when they’re throwing the freaking ball, are you running routes?”

• Derek Brown, frustration with Texans’ WR rotation (16:15):

  “Why in week 10 did Xavier Hutchinson get a 51% route share just to run wind sprints and not earn a single freaking target? ... Feature the best players on your freaking depth chart that help you now!”

• On Miami vs TEs, prop betting (22:23):

  “I’m just, I’m spraying the board with Zach Ertz props here. Like the over and his 39 and a half receiving yards. Yes, yes and yes.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamps | |--------------------------------------|-------------| | Bo Nix sleeper QB | 02:48–05:34 | | Christian Watson vs Giants | 06:05–09:15 | | Tyler Lockett vs Dallas | 09:48–12:44 | | Calvin Austin vs Bengals | 13:30–15:31 | | Jaden Higgins vs Titans | 16:15–19:56 | | Zach Ertz vs Dolphins, international | 20:06–23:13 |

Summary Table: Must-Start Sleepers Week 11

| Player | Position | Versus | Reason to Start | |-------------------|------------|------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Bo Nix | QB | at Chiefs | Improved matchup, high deep attempts, KC pass D regress, “sneaky” top-12 QB potential | | Christian Watson | WR | at Giants | Deep role, giants porous deep D, WR injuries, explosive potential | | Tyler Lockett | WR | vs Cowboys | Full-time and high route share, 22.2% targets, weak Dallas slot coverage, high game total | | Calvin Austin | WR | at Bengals | Full-time player, likely shadow frees him up, favorable coverage, proven upside | | Jaden Higgins | WR | vs Titans | High per-route targets, vulnerable Titans secondary, upside if usage increases, red zone looks | | Zach Ertz | TE | vs Dolphins (Intl)| High target share, no McLaurin, Miami bleeds TE production, strong streamer and prop bet targets |

Hosts' Top Tips & Tone

The hosts keep things candid, actionable, and slightly irreverent—balancing data-heavy insights with passionate (sometimes exasperated) pleas to avoid chasing points or misinterpreting snap shares over route participation.

Closing Advice:
Live in the fantasy “future” and don’t chase last week’s points. Pay attention to emerging usage patterns, leverage the favorable matchups, and don’t hesitate to start these high-upside sleepers, especially when league depth and injuries call for bold moves.

Best of luck in Week 11!