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This is an I Heart podcast. This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, or OSA in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snore loudly, or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability, and concentration issues, it may be due to osa. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at don't sleep on OSA.com this information is provided by Lily, a medicine company.
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All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. It's the week 12 primer episode, so of course we've got our top six sleeper starts with with matchups to exploit. I'm your host, Seth Wolcock, and rocking and rolling with me is a man who has certainly been in the lab over the last few days cooking up this week's primer. He's Derek Brown. Debro, how are you today, man?
C
Doing good, buddy. Last week's episode, we had a lot of fails with injuries and then players not playing because the Raiders didn't want to even try to win the game. So Tower Locket was a bust, but Christian Watson led people to a lot of wins last week. So we're back at it, man. Hopefully we. You know, I kind of look at this as not like batting average. Like, if we're hitting.33%, we're doing good. I'm hoping that we're hitting at least.500 and helping people out with some decisions and win some matchups this week, man. And every week.
B
I absolutely agree. And I don't think there's a more important time for the primer episode than this time in the season. Right? I mean, lineups are bare. Every single week, we're getting hit with more and more injuries to people we drafted and have acquired on the waiver wireless. So we got to go digging and that's what we're going to do here today for going deep today, dude, we're going deep. Going deep. Remember how they said when you're growing up, you can dig all the way to China? That's what we're doing today. We're digging all the way to China, boys and girls. And before we jump in, a quick shout out to everyone who is joining us either on the Fancy Bros YouTube channel or the audio feed. Thank you so much for all the support this season. We see you. We appreciate you. Please use a quick favor, give this video a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel. If you're new haven't help us get to 300, 000 subscribers by the end of the season. We'd really appreciate that. And if you want a chance to win a signed Justin Jefferson's Minnesota Vikings jersey for absolutely free courtesy of our friends over@pristineauction.com all you need to do is head to fantasypros.com contest complete the form either a Go ahead and download the free Fantasy Pros app, b leave a review for the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast or c follow us on X Instagram or Tick Tock. We are at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you're going to receive and we will announce a winner right here on the program in the near future. So if you're watching on YouTube, be sure to ring the bell so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. If you are that lucky winner Dbro let's go ahead and jump into the sleeper starts and it starts with my boy Sam Darnold taking a trip to Music City.
C
Yeah, Sammy Darnold. Man, we've seen more old Sam Darnold than we'd probably like to see over the last few weeks. Like since week seven it's been kind of rough. Like dudes led the NFL in that time span. An interception, second highest turnover worthy throw rate. But that's where we get to the Tennessee Titans and they have been kind of the get right elixir for a lot of quarterbacks and I think that could be true for Sam Darnold this week. So I think he's borderline QB1 worthy. Definitely a startup. If you're debating on whether playing him or say like Caleb Williams, I would lean in the direction of Sam Darnold because since week seven, Tennessee's given up the tenth most passing yards per game, the fourth highest yards per attempt and the sixth highest success rate per drop back.
B
Yeah, I'm totally with you on Sam Darnold. I know this necessarily isn't a betting show, but a couple of trends just to show how good the Seahawks are on the road. Derek 6 and oh ATS as an away team this season 3 and oh ATS as an away favorite this season as well. 30 ATS in non conference games. So really any way you slice it, I love the Seahawks this week. I even laid the 13 half points and I think I was just say.
C
They'Re going to cover that big line.
B
I have it. I Mean, it's, it sounds square. I didn't love betting that number. But at the same time, like Sam Darnold, this has been the spot where he's been really, really good. And right now, like the Tennessee Titans as a whole in the season they've been allowing the third most points per game. I think with no Calvin Ridley too, maybe Cam Ward struggles a bit more than usual, which is still struggling a lot to move the ball. So maybe there's some short fields for jsn, Ken Walker and Sam Darnold to take advantage of.
C
I don't disagree with you at all. And for everybody, like look, if you haven't read the primary yet, also I think Tennessee's run defense could have sneakily approved. I wrote about that a ton in this primer. Okay, so this all, I think to wrap a bow on this, this all kind of like all roads kind of lead back to Sam Darnold. Whether you want to talk about them being heavily favored. The good matchup then wanted to inject some confidence into Sam Darnold heading down the back half of the season. And if the run defense is improved marginally a lot, possibly with Andre Sweat and Jeffrey Simmons both back on that D line, then Seattle's gonna be forced.
B
To throw the ball deeper. Let's also get to the wide receivers where it's the time of year where I love to invest in rookies, right? They finally start popping off, they can finally overtake some of those veterans on the depth chart. We've seen it in Houston and now we're also starting to see it in the Windy City.
C
Yeah, dude, it's Luther Burton week. I think Luther Burton could pop off for a big game in this one. And he finally usurped Llama days. Akias as the starting slot for the Bears passing offense last week get a 61 route share. He was second on the team. Seth and this is going to kind of go under the radar for a lot of people. Second on the team last week with a 23.8% first read share. So now like we're talking about all this stuff. Luther Byrne being a full time starter, rookies in the back half of the season, the matchup this week because the Steelers are still running single high at the fourth highest rate in the NFL. At against single high. Luther Burton leads the freaking team with 3.3 yards per route run and the Steelers since week seven are giving up the seventh most PBR points per target. Two slot wide receivers. So whatever box you want to check, I mean they're all basically Getting checked. That leads us back to Luther Burton is a strong flex play this week.
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Yeah. The interesting thing about Burden is you and I both not super high on him as a prospect. Yeah. But the opportunity is coming and it's been here. Like what I like is the efficiency. Right. I like when we can have a small sample size and it's obviously not going to be as efficient when that expands out to a full workload. But at the same time, like, you look at yards per route run, you mentioned it right now, top 10 in the NFL. You look at target premium, target separation, top five in the NFL. Also one of my favorite metrics, quarterback rating per target. Luther Burden, fourth in the NFL, 126.3. So when Caleb Williams finds him, he, he's having success. And with the fourth most target separation versus man, I think Burden's really starting to flourish a little bit. And Ben Johnson would be kind of dumb not to use him. Right. And now he's starting to like, would you rather start Luther Burning or DJ Moore? Is that, is that a bridge too far?
C
It's not a bridge too far, especially if you look at the coverage matchup. DJ Moore has been a ghost against single high. He has been so coverage matchup dependent. Like they use them a lot versus too high versus single high. And again, we're talking about this matters because the Steelers have been running single high over the last two years at a top five clip. So this isn't just like small sample variance, things like that. They have been single high heavy. They're going to continue to be single high heavy. And yes, I, I'm going to have Luther Burton probably ranked over DJ Moore this week and that's going to be they, I know they're not close in ecr and I think that's wrong.
B
Yeah. I think with Jalen Ramsey now like totally out of the slot, not playing the nickel anymore, it's Brandon Echols who we have there for the Steelers. I don't really like Brandon Echols. Honestly, I don't. I think he's kind of just a plug and play guy.
C
Very good.
B
No, so, so I, I, I feel a lot better now that it isn't going to be our guy Jaylen Ramsey on him. So, dbro, let's go to your next wide receiver. Who do you have for us, my friend?
C
Again, we're going deep, baby. Andre Yoshavas, he is buried in ecr. I'm, I'm all in this week. And this really comes down to how I'm projecting this matchup. I think T. Higgins is going to get shadowed by Christian Gonzalez and if that's going to be the case, no Jamar Chase, who else is going to step up? Dude, I think Andre Yoshivas is the clear guy to step up in this offense. It's got to be him and it's got to be Chase Brown a ton this week and Yoshavas, he hasn't done much throughout the entirety of the season. I'm not going to push back on anybody with that. But the matchup is right and target's got to go somewhere, man. So like is it Noah fan? He's not running a full time route share. Well okay then it's probably Yoshivas. And the matchup is good, dude. Since week seven the New England Patriots are 16th and receiving yards per game allowed to the slot. Okay, that doesn't jump off the page, but they're allowing the 8th highest PPR points per target slot. Wide receivers.
B
Wow.
C
So shadow targets moving in Hinda's direct his direction. No Jamar Chase. Again, we're trying to read tea leaves. When all of these different factors all stack up in the favor of a player, we probably need to take that a signal and not shy away from it. Just saying. Well he hasn't done it at any other time. Okay, well then are you really. I mean I know I'm going out on a limb here, but if you had to fall beyond that same limb, you, you would have been playing Christian Watson, you'd have been playing Troy Franklin, you'd have been playing Alec Pierce in previous weeks and you would have played Mac Hollins in previous weeks. So those limbs can look shaky but be pretty freaking sturdy and provide fantasy points, man.
B
Yeah, I'm with you there. And the thing I like about Yoshi Voss is he always carries touchdown equity. Right. He's always been a guy even from when he first came to the NFL and even when he's not used that much, he always seems to find the end zone. And. And the New England Patriots, Derek, over the last three weeks or last four weeks, excuse me, they are number three in most receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. You bump that out to four weeks a month long span. Their second was seven. You go to the entire season. They're also top three. So despite Christian Gonzalez being locked down on the outside, they are still allowing a ton of receivers to find pater. So I'm with you on Yoshivas there. And speaking of New England, you're staying in this game for your next sleeper start.
C
I am. And also to add to Yoshavas for your point about touchdown equity over his last five games, he has four Reds on targets. So he's getting targeted. Maybe not a ton.
B
Yeah.
C
But inside where it counts. Inside the red zone, he's getting targets. But that leads us. And I'm going to give this as a twofer. Okay. Because right now we don't know the status. I think K Sean Booty plays this week. If he doesn't roll Mack Hollands into this analysis, they're playing basically the same freaking role. Matt Collins assumed the field stretching role when Kayshawn Booty was out.
B
Yep.
C
So if you got. Look, if Booty's out, roll Mack Hollins into what I'm about to tell you right now. But one of these guys is going to pop off. If Booty is active, pluck him in strong flex play. Because what comes down to is DJ Turner is probably going to shadow Stefon Diggs and again, looking at shadow coverages that's going to push targets in the direction of other players. Is it a good matchup for Trayveon Henderson and Hunter Henry? Absolutely. It's also a really good matchup for K Sean Booty and Matt Collins, whoever plays the field stretching role in this passing game. Because like I talked about DJ Turner probably following Stefon Diggs, the target bump there. Plus, if Turner is in Diggs's back pocket, that means one of these wide receivers is going to see a ton of Dax Hill and Josh Newton. Both these players are giving them 90.8 or higher pass ratings and coverage. And as well as you talk about the downfield role in the Patriots passing attack since week six, the Cincinnati Bengals are giving up the seventh highest deep ball completion rate allowed and the fifth most deep passing yards per game. So whichever one of these guys is going to be running opposite Stefon Diggs all freaking day can pop off for a big day.
B
I really hope it's Booty, man, because I said it when he first went down to injury that I was expecting maybe Drake May's ceiling to also come down without him.
C
No, hadn't.
B
Yeah. And honestly dude, like I, I think like Booty is a key cog in this offense right now. Fancy points per target number one among the position 3.1. Derek quarterback rating per target number one for booty. So like Drake May and this guy have a really great connection and it's also crazy to see that he has that good of a connection with a guy whose ADOT is 17.1 yards. Right. I mean they're just long connections and they seem to have it. So I'm looking forward to Booty being back specifically because I have a ton of Drake May shares that I need that ceiling to be re upped. So Derek, you got one more wide receiver for us and it's someone who's coming on Monday Night Football. Maybe a little Monday night hero action you're calling here. Yeah, dude.
C
And I know he's a little bit higher in acr, but I think people are going to really struggle about what to do with Ricky Pierce all this week and I I'm telling people play him. Okay, you read the primer last week. You knew not to play him. You knew that the down week was coming so nobody should have been surprised about that if you were ingesting the content. But I think this is a bounce back spot for Ricky Piersol. So last week he only got a 7.7.7 target share, had one reception, zero first reads. It wasn't good. The coverage matchup was not in his favor this week and he's playing the Brandon Iuk role in this offense. He's the single high beater. He's the guy they go to when they get single high coverage. And and since week eight the Carolina Panthers have utilized single high at the 11th highest rate. 56% of the defensive snaps against single high this year. Ricky Pearsall 23.6% target share, 3.87 yards per route run and he's at a 31.9% first read share. So I think that you're going to see Ricky P. Get a lot of targets early and often against the Carolina Panthers.
B
Yeah, we've seen three straight games where a wide receiver has gone over 90 yards against the Panthers. And I don't know how you feel about the the Panthers offense, but I think it's cooking with enough gas right now, specifically in some more tougher matchups than what San Francisco is going to provide that I think Bryce Young can actually throw and keep them in this game where the 49ers just can't get up and rest on their laurels because I think that's the only way this goes sour. Derek is the 49ers get ahead Pierce hall doesn't do anything in the beginning of the game and the Panthers can't come back. But I think they can be in this game with how bad in particularly that San Francisco defense is.
C
Yeah, I agree with you. I think Carolina and you know, just a peek behind the curtain. I also consider like Xavier Leggett, Jevin Coker for this because I think the Carolina Panthers can push them. Their secondary has been bad. They're not pressuring the quarterback. And if Bryce Young again, like this offense is kind of dinged up. Like does Legette play? Does he not Bryce Young, is the ankle thing going to bother him this week? All goes back to the 49ers. Defense has not been good, man. So I think however you slice this up, the 49ers are going to be pushed in this game and they're going to need to put up points.
B
I love Bob Sala. I love everything that man brings to a defensive coordinator position. But you can't overcome some things, right? You can't lose Bosa.
C
You gotta have talent to be able to do stuff. Scheme is only going to carry you so far, dude.
B
Yeah, you just can't lose some of the absolute stalwarts they had on that side of the ball, man. Like. Yeah. So I'm with you there. Before we get to the final mention of a sleeper star, I wanted to remind everyone that you can dominate your fans football league with Fantasy Pros Premium now available for absolutely free for six months when you deposit and place your first wager at any of our partner sportsbook. And yes, it does include our friends over at Hard Rock Bet. The easiest free way to get full access to our top fantasy football tools all season long is with FP Premium. Go to fancyprose.com/premium and get yourself started. And Derek, bring us home. You got another Seattle Seahawk this time coming in at the tight end position.
C
Well, if we think Sammy Darnold's gonna have a good game, I think A.J. barner's gonna come along for the ride, dude. And it is tough in the tight end streaming. We weeds. It is rough man. I mean it's rough. Honestly just the week, this week finding sleepers like amongst all these different positions and again like running back is a mess. That's. We're not talking about running backs this week because if I don't feel good about it, I'm not recommending players to people. I'm just not so going to the tight end position though. Like AJ Barnum, there's a lot of things to kind of dice through here. Like since week 10 he has been much more involved in the offense. Has almost an 18 target share, 35 receiving yards per game. This goes back to and we talk about coverage match matchups a lot because I think they matter, man. And the Tennessee Titans defense, you're looking at, they run a lot of too high. It's the third highest rate in the NFL that they utilize too high. Cooper Cup, Rashid Shahid have been more on the single high spectrum. They're not getting used a ton. It's been a crap ton of jsm. But over the last two weeks with Rashid Shahid there, you're seeing AJ Barner get more work against too high coverage. And I think they're going to see that a ton this week. So like over the last two games AJ Barner has had a 33% target per route run rate versus too high with 2.2 yards per route run. If that continues this week, Tennessee hasn't been a wonderful matchup for tight ends, but now they're kind of middle of the road. Like over the last five weeks they're 17th and schedule adjusted fantasy points per game allowed. Ball's got to go somewhere. But think Darnold's gonna have a big game. I do think that AJ Barner is hopping in the car and they're riding along together this week.
B
Little squad ride there. I like it, man. AJ Barner quietly has the six most total touchdowns for the tight end position with five of them. And you look just back at some of those game logs, I didn't think coming into the season or even midway through the season the Titans were really a matchup. I wanted to attack specifically at the tight end position because teams can get up, they don't have to throw on them. But I mean look at some of these game logs. Derek 6 for 51 for Dalton Schultz last week, 5 of 68 for Gadsden the week before. But the week prior to that, 4 for 53 for Tyler Warren will take that. Austin Hooper found the end zone. Also had Hunter Henry go over four for 33 against the Patriots and the Tennessee Titans and five for 50 and one for Michael Mayer. So like all the game logs line up here too. We just got to hope that A.J. barner can have a little more consistency because monster game last week, but I think it was almost close to a donut the week before. So we just kind of have to hope and pray a little bit that everything lines up because A.J. barner, he's talented, man. He's very, very talented. I liked him coming out of the draft process out of Michigan a couple years ago. He and now seeing him develop into almost an every down tight end with how elite of a blocker he is as well has been very, very fun to watch.
C
Yeah, it's been fun to watch, man. And all those stat lines that you threw out there, even if we're talking about like 3 for 34 for 40 if you throw a touchdown on top of any any one of those stat lines you're talking about strong. If not, maybe like top five to six tight end for the week type of fantasy numbers. Like it didn't take a lot to get you there, man.
B
Like no it doesn't.
C
4 for 40 in a PPR league is 8 points. Throw 6 on top of that, you're talking points. So that, that is an easy top 12 score for the week.
B
Yeah, I'm there with you, Derek. Great stuff as always, both in the written version and the audio and video version of the Primer. We appreciate all the work you do for us here at Fantasy Pros. That is going to do it for us though, on this episode of the Fantasy Pros Fans Football Podcast. Go ahead, comment down below your favorite week 12 sleeper starts. We want to hear from you. And while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing to the to the channel. If you're new for Downtown Derrick Brown, I'm Seth Wilcock. Take care y'.
C
All.
B
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros. Kraken is built to make crypto simple.
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Lenovo.
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This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, or osa. In adults with obesity, they may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snore loudly, or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability and concentration issues, it may be due to osa. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at don'tsleep on OSA.com this information is provided by Lily, a medicine company. This is an iHeart podcast.
Release Date: November 20, 2025
Hosts: Seth Wolcock & Derek Brown (“Debro”)
This episode dives deep into the six must-start sleeper picks for Week 12 of the fantasy football season, focusing on players who offer hidden value amid mounting injuries and depleted rosters. Seth and Debro explore favorable matchups, rookie breakouts, and expert-level stats and projections to help listeners make critical start/sit decisions at the business end of fantasy season.
On “batting average” for sleeper picks:
“If we’re hitting .500 and helping people out with some decisions and win some matchups this week, man…that’s what it’s about.” — Debro [01:13]
On rookie WRs:
“This is the time of year where I love to invest in rookies, right? They finally start popping off, they can overtake those veterans on the depth chart.” — Seth [05:17]
On deep shots:
“These limbs can look shaky but be pretty freaking sturdy and provide fantasy points, man.” — Debro [09:53]
About defense and scheme:
“You gotta have talent to be able to do stuff. Scheme is only going to carry you so far, dude.” — Debro [15:29]
The hosts combine analytics, matchup data, and insider perspectives with a playful, supportive dynamic. Even deep dart throws come with statistical backing and transparent reasoning, demonstrating their balance of evidence and instinct.
“If I don’t feel good about it, I’m not recommending players to people. I’m just not.” — Debro [16:52]
This episode is essential for fantasy managers needing off-the-radar starts to survive the critical bye weeks and injury crunches heading into playoff season.
For further deep-dive analysis, access the written Primer at FantasyPros.com and tune in weekly for new sleeper picks and actionable insights.