← FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
6 Must-Start Players for Week 3 | The Primer (Ep. 1719)
00:22:23
Loading summary
Transcript61 lines
- [00:00]
Matt Jones
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
Drew Franklin
Hey, this is Matt Jones and I'm Drew Franklin and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week, that is exactly what you're going to get. Listen to NFL Cover 0 with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
- [00:38]
Seth Wilcock
All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy football podcast. We're just two weeks into the NFL season, but the landscape has certainly shifted. We have players that we are ranking as RB3s wide receiver threes coming in the season. They're now firmly inside the top 12 of their respective positions. We won't quite be focusing on those particular players, but instead on our favorite week three sleeper starts. Yes. Welcome back to the Primer episode. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and I'm joined by a man who's been on top of all the shaking and the bacon inside the expert consensus rankings. You can call him the Ricky Bobby of our staff. He's Derek Brown. What's up, dbro? How are you as we approach yet another weekend of NFL football?
- [01:17]
Matt Jones
That intro was fantastic. And now you started talking about bacon, and now I'm hungry. Seth.
- [01:24]
Seth Wilcock
Yes.
- [01:25]
Matt Jones
Is there anything before we get into this real fast, is there anything that you can't put bacon on? Like, like, within the realms of, like, decent reality? Like, I'm not talking about adding bacon to your breakfast cereal, but, like, sure. Is there anything that bacon doesn't make better?
- [01:41]
Seth Wilcock
Seriously, I. I legitimately can't think of one. I am stumped on that because Mac and cheese. Put it in there.
- [01:47]
Derek Brown
Sandwiches.
- [01:47]
Seth Wilcock
Put it in there. Burger. Put it in there.
- [01:49]
Matt Jones
Bake?
- [01:49]
Seth Wilcock
Pretty much, yeah. Yep.
- [01:51]
Derek Brown
Absolutely.
- [01:51]
Seth Wilcock
100% anything and all things bacon. Yep, yep.
- [01:55]
Derek Brown
Maybe a little bacon on top of these starts. We got for you this week as well. Quick shout out to everyone who's tuning in, either on The Face Pros YouTube channel or the audio feed.
- [02:04]
Seth Wilcock
We see you.
- [02:05]
Derek Brown
We appreciate you. Please do us a quick favor. Give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content and make sure you're subscribing to the channel if you're new. Also, if you want a chance to win a side Jamar Chase signed Bengals jersey for free. Curtis VR friends over pristine auction.com or all you need to do is head over to fancyprose.com contest. Complete the form and either A download the Fancy Pros app, B leave a review for this podcast or C follow us on x Instagram or TikTok at fantasypros. The more actions you go ahead and complete, the more entries you're going to receive and we will be announcing a winner right here on the program. So make sure you turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new programs are up and you can claim your prize if you're that lucky winner. Derek, let's go ahead and jump into the quarterback position where I don't know if you're trying to just, you know, butter me up here with a little more bacon talk but but you certainly are are speaking to me here with one of my favorite players out there in the Steel City.
- [03:01]
Matt Jones
I was going to say man, I'm playing to the insert crowd just a little bit. Come on dude. But no, seriously, Aaron Rodgers is a fantastic start this week. QB 26 and ECR is laughable. I mean one he's QB 14 and fantasy points per game and two the New England Patriots defense has been God awful man. Like their past defense has not been anything close to what I thought we were going to get. Maybe they get Christian Gonzalez back. Even if they do, I don't know if he's a full time player and if it matters that that much. This week New England cannot stop the pass, man. So I think Aaron Rodgers and they can't pressure the quarterback and that's huge for Aaron Rodgers. Looking into England, they've allowed the highest yards per attempt, the most passing yards per game, Seth, the eighth highest pass rating and like I said, Aaron Archer is going to have plenty of time to dice them up when he's going to face a team that has the 12th lowest pressure rate. So I'm not in on the old man every single week, but he's going to look younger this week. Dude.
- [03:58]
Seth Wilcock
Yeah man. Smoking that ayahuasca and some other things potentially keeping him young forever. And you, you know, I think potentially.
- [04:05]
Derek Brown
Why the expert consensus rankings have him so low, Derek, is because when you actually look at fancy points per game.
- [04:10]
Seth Wilcock
It hasn't been great for New England.
- [04:12]
Derek Brown
You know, quarterbacks going up against them.
- [04:14]
Seth Wilcock
But that's because no one's been running right.
- [04:16]
Derek Brown
They've had Geno Smith, they've had Tuatagavaloa, but both of those guys had over 300 passing yards. Both those guys scored a passing touchdowns and you look at who's leading the league and passing yards allowed well, it's the Patriots. Like you said, Christian Gonzalez hasn't been himself. The free agent acquisitions they've brought in also haven't done what they've meant to do. So I think it's a lot of overlook by the community as a whole this week. And I like this little sleeper play and a little permanent sandwich action. You can also put bacon on that one there, Derek.
- [04:44]
Matt Jones
Hey, like I said, bacon is undefeated, bro.
- [04:48]
Seth Wilcock
Let's go to the running back position.
- [04:49]
Derek Brown
Derek, where you have one play this week staying in this same game.
- [04:54]
Matt Jones
Why is Ramandre Stevenson ranked as RB 29 in ECR? I. I can't seem to square this in my head. Like, he is the clear leader of the Patriots backfield. I'm not telling everybody that. Look, Trayvon Henderson does not need more touches and maybe that happens this week. I still think he's going to lead them in everything meaningful for Stevenson. He's played 65% of the snaps in both games. He's looked extremely good, Seth. Like he's gotten three of the five red zone rushing opportunities. He's averaging 84 and a half total yards per game. He's the RB19 in fantasy points per game. So the fact that I could even bring up Radre Stevenson's name as a player that is not ranked inside the top 24 is kind of ridiculous. And then you look at what he's done again, like he's played well, he's healthy amongst 50 qualifying running back, Seth. He's 18th in explosive run rate. He's 14th in yards after contact per attempt. And again, sorry we gave a lot of love to the Steelers at the top of this, but now we also got to throw some shade. Man. What the heck has happened to this supposed to be awesome defense? They cannot stop the pass, they cannot stop the run. Pittsburgh has given up the third highest explosive run rate so far this season, the fifth most rushing arts per game and the second highest highest missed tackle rate. Like, they have way too much talent on this defense to play as bad as they're playing, but they're playing really terrible so we could take advantage in fantasy.
- [06:17]
Seth Wilcock
Yeah, I think this is a byproduct of what happens when you have veterans missing training camp. You know, Cam Hayward didn't show up until the very last minute. He wanted that new deal and he has just not looked like the same run stuffer we've been accustomed to out here in Pittsburgh for years and years. And this is another situation where I think perception of this defense is that maybe they'll get it together and that you look at fancy points per game, they're not one of the highest allowed to the position, but you look at rushing yards, they're right up there. They're number two, right behind the Minnesota Vikings. The only reason they haven't allowed more fancy points is because the running backs they've gone up against have only had five targets this season. So from Andre, who continues to get receiving work, that's what I'm stunned about. I don't know if. If it's the fact that Trayvon Henderson picked up a couple of flags there for holding is why he took a back seat there, but I was really impressed by Ramondre and kind of reminded that this guy has always been a pretty decent pass catcher when he's been asked to do that. So Ken Walker had a big day last week. Over 100 yards and a score. We saw Breece hall in week one as well. Look great. The best he's looked at in a minute. So wheels up here for Ramondre Stevenson. Are you using this opportunity if you do have his counterpart there in Travion Henderson, Is he a bench for you? Is he a set sell? Is he just a stash for later on?
- [07:34]
Matt Jones
Henderson is a stash. And I. I'd say if you're really in a pinch with flex plays, like, if you drafted him as your RB2, you probably gotta be starting him. I'm not dropping him. I'm not doing anything like that. Like, I think he's an interesting flex play this week. Like, again, I think Ramon Dre still leads the backfield in everything meaningful this week. But to say, like the Patriots or this is a really close game or an explosive game, I think this game has some shootout potential. If that happens, there's an opportunity for Henderson to break off her big run.
- [08:07]
Seth Wilcock
Yeah, absolutely. Real quick. I wanted to remind everyone that you can dominate your fans football league with Fancy Pros Premium, which is now available free for six months. When you deposit and place your first wager at any of our partner sportsbooks, this is the easiest way to get full access to our top fancy football tools all season long. Go to fancyprose.com premium to get yourself started today. Derek, let's shift over to the wide receiver position where you have a trio of players we should be considering in lineups this week, including someone who's been kind of rather disappointing right off the rip here in Chicago.
- [08:41]
Matt Jones
Yeah, and full transparency, man. Like, usually we're. We're talking about two whiteouts, two running backs. The running back position is just a mess this week, dude. Like outside of there's so much uncertainty with workloads, so many bad matchups that like there's really nobody else that I feel like supremely confident. This is one of those kind of weeks, Seth, where it's like I really think that if you're playing like you're, you're kind of dividing up like who am I going to play in my flex? It's probably going to be a wide receiver. And that leads me to DJ Moore, dude. Like he's wide receiver 32 in ECR. Honestly, I was kind of expecting him to be a little bit higher and not even be able to, you know, talk about him in this segment. But here we are. DJ Moore, the the the top down numbers haven't been amazing. Like a 16.2% target share, 23 arear chair 19 first read. Those aren't just jump off the page awesome numbers, sure. But when you look at the matchup and you look at the coverage shell, I think this is a huge opportunity for DJ Moore to have a monster game this week. So Dallas utilizes Too high at the third highest rate in the NFL, 64% of their defensive snaps against Too High. It has not been Roma Dunes a so far this season. It has been DJ Moore that Caleb Williams is going to religiously. I talked about all those numbers to begin this with DJ Moore. Just his overall market share against Too high Seth DJ Moore, his numbers go to. He has a 27.3% target share. His yards per route run jumps up to 3.32 and his first read share is colossal at 36.8%. And then if you look at the matchup, Seth, do we just saw last week that Dallas can't stop anybody through the air. They've given up the most receiving yards per game and the highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. You need upside like for your lineups this week. DJ Moore I think can really, really provide it in one of the game environments that honestly it's one of the few game environments of the whole week, Seth, where people are looking at betting totals. One of the few high total games of the week. So you're buying into total, you're buying into coverage shell matchup and you're buying into a talented player. DJ Mort Smash this week.
- [10:51]
Seth Wilcock
You know I was so disappointing in week one when I was on some Devonta Smith overs in that Thursday night opener saying the Eagles just didn't throw the ball right. And I was like come on, this secondary is not good. And then lo and behold Russell Wilson sets a new career high last week, goes absolutely, you know, bananas here. Wanda Robinson over 140 yards. Malik neighbors over 160 yards. Each of them combined for three touchdowns as well. So I was like, okay, that, that is the Dallas Cowboys secondary I know and love. I don't think Jerome Bland is going to be in for this game as well. So I think it will open up some even more potential for DJ Moore. And like Derek, if we go Back to week one in that prime time game against the Minnesota Vikings, D.J. moore was running wide open and Caleb John Williams missed him. Excuse me. And if he would have hit him in stride for that touchdown, I think people feel a little bit better about DJ Moore and he's maybe a little higher up in the ECR rankings. Let's stick with, let's stick with the wide receiver position. A receiver I just mentioned here that is connected to our friend Russell Wilson.
- [11:54]
Matt Jones
This is not me chasing last week's points. I want to be very clear about that. Wando Robinson at wide receiver 45. I'm telling you right now, I'm going to have him ranked higher than that. The matchup, the coverage, everything lines up for Wando Robinson this week. And again, I'm not dismissing that he's the wide receiver. Nine of fantasy points per game. We got two weeks. He had a monster game last week, so toss that out. That, that, that's not where I'm going with this. I do really enjoy the fact that his adot is not at 2 or 4. His adox respectable. Seth, like it's 11.0 right now. Like it's 11 flat. Wow, that is something we have never seen with Wanda Robinson's usage. And then if you look at just his market share in this offense, 23% target share, 32% first reach here he's averaging. And I know it's only two games. 98 receiving yards per game, 2.7 yards per route run. The real big thing that I want to highlight here, Seth, is not only the coverage matchup for Wanda Robinson, but the Chiefs have stunk against slot receivers over the last few seasons. They've been abysmal. The Chiefs run too high at the six highest rates of 62% of the defensive snaps against too high. Wando Robinson, his first read share increases to 37% so. So Russell Wilson will be looking for him early and often. And his yards per route run jump all the way to 3.45, which is just a wonderful number. And again, the Chiefs can't stop slot receivers. They've Been torched already this season. They're giving up the seventh highest PPR points per target. Wand Robinson in for another big game. So again, if you need the upside from a flex play, I think Wandell can give it to you. And then that's not just PPR formats, half ppr, start him.
- [13:39]
Seth Wilcock
It's so cool to kind of see this development in a prospect like Wanda Robinson, who I think coming out of Kentucky we were all pretty high on and just was kind of one of those guys who you would stash on your bench if you need to throw them out there. In a desperation flex, desperation wide receiver too. You could over the last few years, but you were looking at a ceiling of 13, 14 points and it feels like they're starting to unlock him a little bit. We're seeing that downfield presence and to your point here, like last week again, let's throw out the Eagles game against the Chiefs because the Eagles don't throw the ball. But you look the week before when Keenan Allen was in that game. Ten targets, seven receptions, 68 yards and a touchdown. I know him and Ladd were kind of in and out of the slot. Ladd had a respectable game too. So this is the time for Wandale to continue to heat up. And if I had to guess, it's probably going to be still a little bit of dinking and dunking form too, because I just don't think it's going to be a super high scoring game. I think this will be a lot of ball possession for the Giants and the Chiefs, teams that historically have kind of struggled to score a little bit of points here as of late. Derek, let's go back to the wide receiver position where you have a sneakier start. One of my favorite prospects that we talked about way back in the NFL draft show who do you have?
- [14:49]
Matt Jones
I hope people picked him up off of waivers. Man, this could be the week where Ellic Am anor says to everybody, I'm the real wide receiver one for the Tennessee Titans. If you look at what Calvin Ridley has done and what he hasn't done to this point, his separation metrics, his route win rate, they're not good, dude. Ellick is quietly bawling out and we saw like a small snippet of this last week. He was wide receiver 24 in fantasy last week. He's gotten to this point a 21.3% target share, a 26.8% first read share. I know that a lot of his counting stats aren't amazing, but we could see all that come to fruition this week. Because if you look at the Colts secondary, they've utilized single high coverage on 54% of the defensive snaps. Why does this all matter and why do we keep talking about coverages? Because the way that teams attack certain coverage shells matters. Are they going to go underneath? Are they going to stretch the field? What? Receivers get more of a bump when they face certain defenses and how do they attack them? And this all matters, dude. And Ellic versus single high. His target share goes from 21.3% to 23%. His first read share jumps from 26% to 32%. And he has solid first downs per route run. And then the cold secondary, like we shouldn't be that scared of them, man. Like They've allowed the 6 most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. And if the Colts are handling their business like J. J.T. is running wild, Daniel Jones is doing the freaking thing this week. We know the Tennessee Titans are going to be playing catch up. They're going to have to throw the ball this week. And I think a lot of targets and production is going to go to Alec.
- [16:23]
Seth Wilcock
I mean, it kind of just makes sense here. I mean, he's always been the type of receiver coming out of Stanford where he had to play a little bit of backyard football, right? I mean, Ashton Daniels, his quarterback in 2024 was God awful and kind of that same mentality a little bit in. In Cam Ward, while Cam Ward is a much better quarterback. Obviously he still knew, right? He's still getting his feet under him. He's still, you know, you know, the touchdown he had to him last week was a bit of a backyard BS Type of move, man. So, yeah, I mean, I. I think it makes sense here and give me a guy who's on the field right now a ton. And it's not just he's running wind sprint 79 of snaps, 73 in week two as well. And I think, you know, better days are ahead for Calvin Ridley still just because he's had such tough matchups, right? I mean, two of the better cornerbacks.
- [17:11]
Derek Brown
In the league he's been going up.
- [17:12]
Seth Wilcock
Against in week number one and two. But I think there's a chance that we're looking back and you know, I think pie on both of your nice faces because we're drafting a ton of Tony Pollard, we drafted a ton of Calvin Ridley, and it might turn out that Ellick was really the one we wanted all along. Yeah, dude.
- [17:26]
Matt Jones
The fact that he is wide receiver 55 and ECR, I'm telling you right now like I'm gonna have him inside. Like he's probably going to be a borderline wide receiver 34 for me and I might push him up into the wide receiver three range this week.
- [17:38]
Seth Wilcock
Yeah might be someone also to consider in the prop market too. I'm sure his receiving yards will be low. I don't know if I would want to go back to the anytime TD market with him but definitely someone I'll be eyeing up. Especially potential SGP play. So Derek, round us out bring us home here with the tight end position. Another one of these prospects that I think you and I both really fell in love with from a production standpoint. Had one of the best overall seasons we've ever seen from the tight end position. He's a Mac boy from Bowling Green actually got to touch touch base with his parents there over the summer out there at the fancy football expo.
- [18:15]
Matt Jones
Yeah man, before we get to him real fast, good shout out for the betting stuff dude. Like he so Alec, what's right now in the prop market over at hard rock bet over 35 and a half minus 115. Give me that plus anytime touchdown score plus 325 gonna hit both of those on betting pros right now dude. Like that's easy money. And speaking of easy money man, like with with the tight end position being just kind of a mess like with injuries underperformance you don't know who to play. I'm telling you man. Harold Fannin Jr. Got to meet him down in Senior Bowl. Super awesome guy. Great interview. He is tight end 13 and ECR. He is going to be inside of my probably top 10 tight ends for the week. Tight end 9 in fantasy points per game Seth and he's getting the usage dude 15 target share. He's averaging 55.5 receiving her. It's per game 1.9 yards per route run. It is good as the packers defense has been and it has been very good. Surprisingly so. They're giving up a lot of production to tight ends dude. And a lot of that comes down to if you're a quarterback and the corners are extremely good, how are you going to move the ball and avoid corners. Really talented corners. You're going to target your tight end over the middle of the field and that's what teams have been doing. The Green Bay packers have allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game, the 11th highest yards per reception and the fifth most receiving yards. Two tight ends. So if you got David and Joku, fine play him this week Just, you know, considering your options. But if you got Harold Fannin Jr. And they're like, okay, do I need to play him or am I gonna go with, I don't know, Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry, all these other guys where it's low end, tight end one you're like, I don't know, like, probably the answer is Harold Vanna Jr. Yeah, I.
- [20:06]
Seth Wilcock
Mean, it's been sensational. To start the season, he has 14 targets in just two games. That's one of the better runs that we've seen from a rookie tight end coming out only two targets behind Jerry Judy, one behind Cedric Tillman. And also he is the one tight end that has a red zone target too between him and David Najoku. So when they get in close, he's looking for him. So I, I'm all in on Harold Fanon Jr. The, the prospect and like rest of season, I think it's clear that he is the tight end. Rookie or tight end? Rookie too. Right. Would you agree, like, I mean, I'm dropping Colston Loveland if I had him anywhere. From a dynasty perspective. I know this isn't a dynasty show, Derek, but would you also bump Harold Fanning Jr. Up past Loveland and Dynasty rankings or is that just a bridge too far?
- [20:49]
Matt Jones
I don't think it's a bridge too far. I think, I think the way to approach that is they should be talked about in the same area code. I think that, that that's how I think people should be approaching it. And I know you and I talked about this like a preseason shows, live streams and everything. I was worried about Colston Loveland getting Dalton Kincaid and where it' like, okay, like, the veteran guy is probably not gonna go away. What if Loveland isn't this full time? Like everybody's talking about, oh, Benjamin's a goody. Sam Laporta. Okay, what if that doesn't happen? What if this is more Dalton Kincaid treatment and his route shear is cut and that's what we've seen. Like he's been in the 40s, dude. You can't even start him. He's droppable right now in every format. Not Dynasty, but a redraft. He's droppable because he's not playing. So no, like, Harold Fannin needs to be above him in redraft and in Dynasty. I think there's a very interesting conversation about discussing them in the same breath.
- [21:41]
Seth Wilcock
To your point, if we're, I think if we're redrafting rookie drafts right now, Harold Fanning is not going outside the top 20 picks.
- [21:48]
Matt Jones
Oh no, no. Agreed.
- [21:49]
Seth Wilcock
It's been exciting. I'm excited to continue to watch this player develop and grow in this Browns offense that's going to have to sling the ball because even though their defense is okay, they're just not a good football team. So they're going to be trailing Derek. Great stuff today, man. That is going to do it for us on this episode of the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. Comment down below your favorite Week three must starts. We want to hear from you. And while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing to the channel. If you're new for Derrick Brown, I'm Seth Wilcock. Take care, y'. All.
- [22:18]
Fantasy Pros Outro
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [23:01]
Drew Franklin
Hey, this is Matt Jones and I'm Drew Franklin and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week that is exactly what you're going to get. Listen NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [23:33]
Daniel Jeremiah
Hey everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here and I'm Bucky Brooks on Move the Six. We take you inside the game, from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies.
- [23:43]
Drew Franklin
To evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct team winning rosters.
- [23:48]
Daniel Jeremiah
We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.
- [23:54]
Drew Franklin
It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sundays.
- [23:59]
Daniel Jeremiah
Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [24:07]
Dan
I'm Dan. He's Ty.
- [24:08]
Ty
Hello.
- [24:09]
Dan
And we're the Solid Verbal College Football Podcast.
- [24:12]
Ty
Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else, and all the emotional support you need as a college football fan.
- [24:20]
Dan
Join us all season long as we ride the rollercoaster of this ridiculous sport.
- [24:25]
Ty
Listen to the Solid Verbal College Football podcasts on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [24:33]
Dan
We don't just love college football, Ty. We live it.
- [24:37]
Matt Jones
This is an iHeart podcast.