FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast: 6 Must-Start Players for Week 9 | The Primer (Ep. 1810)

Episode Date: October 31, 2025
Hosts: Seth Wilcox & Derek Brown ("D-Bro")

Episode Overview

This week’s Primer episode is all about sleepers and undervalued players who should be must-starts for Week 9 of your fantasy football season. Hosts Seth Wilcox and Derek Brown break down their top six “sleeper” starts at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end, using both matchup-specific analysis and advanced data. If you’re looking for that edge to push you into the win column, this is the episode for you.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Quarterback Must-Start: Jared Goff

Analysis & Rationale:

• Current ECR: QB13, just outside starter range in 12-team leagues
• Season Summary: Hasn’t been a consistent fantasy scorer only because of lack of rushing, not bad play
• Key Metrics:
  • Top 6 in all important per-dropback metrics: Yards/Attempt, Passing TDs, Accurate throw rate, Catchable target rate.
  • #1 in clean pocket completion %: 79.7%
  • Great vs the blitz: #1 in Yards/Attempt, #2 in Passer Rating
• Matchup: Faces Minnesota, who has fallen apart vs the pass since Week 4 (most Yards/Attempt & Passer Rating given up; can’t contain deep ball).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments:

• “Since Week 4, the Minnesota Vikings pass defense has fallen apart… highest yards per attempt and the highest pass rating and the third highest cpoe.” – Derek Brown [03:34]
• “Jared Goff is going to sit back … and say, fine, Brian, you want to blitz me? Bring it on, baby. Downfield bombs are coming.” – Derek Brown [04:36]

Betting Angle:

• Hosts discussed betting Goff’s passing TD over (line was -170 at 1.5)—Seth: “If it’s plus money, it’s got to be bet. I’ll say that.” [06:32]

Running Back Must-Start: Samaje Perine

Analysis & Rationale:

• Current ECR: RB39
• Usage: Averaging 8.3 touches and 54 total yards per game over the last few weeks
• Efficiency: Top 12 in missed tackles forced per attempt (9th) and yards after contact per attempt (12th)
• Red Zone Work: 3 of 11 recent red zone carries
• Matchup: Faces Bears run defense giving up 4th most rushing yards and 9th highest explosive run rate since Week 4
• “Very strong flex play, if he scores, you’re looking at an RB2 week.”— Derek Brown [09:46]

Team Context:

• Bengals RB situation is nearly split (“Chase Brown last week 15 touches, P. Ryan 10. And P. Ryan very effective last week nine for 94 and one on the ground.” – Seth [08:34])
• Joe Flacco likely to play, but even with Jake Browning, Cincy may lean on run game (“Any way you slice it, Samaje P. Ryan is a really strong flex play.” – Derek [09:46])

Wide Receiver Must-Start #1: Alec Pierce

Analysis & Rationale:

• Current ECR: WR38
• Role: Primary deep threat in Colts offense, thrives vs single-high coverage
• Metrics: Against single-high: 29.5% target share, 4.3 yards per route, 33.3% first read share
• Matchup: Steelers allow 12th most deep passing yards and 9th highest deep passer rating. “Outside corners for Pittsburgh have sucked this year.” – Derek [12:38]
• Steelers allow 2nd most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs since Week 4

Quote:

• “All roads lead back to Alec Pierce this week.” – Derek Brown [12:59]

Wide Receiver Must-Start #2: Shmerek DK

Analysis & Rationale:

• Current ECR: WR44
• Situation: Full-time player with Tyler Lockett out, 86% route share last week, 21% target share, 93 yards
• Role: Slot usage up, fits matchup
• Matchup: Chargers are top-10 in fantasy points per target allowed to slot WRs, bottom-12 vs perimeter
• Coverage: Thrives against two-high; 21% TPRR, 2.1 YPRR since Week 7 vs two-high
• “He’s a full-time player … it all lines up for him to have another strong outing and be a strong flex play.” – Derek [15:31]

Team Context:

• Led Titans in receiving two straight weeks, #3 in NFL red zone share, 100% true catch rate

Wide Receiver Must-Start #3: Kayshon Boutte

Analysis & Rationale:

• Current ECR: WR41 (“disrespectful” – Derek)
• Form: Top-24 WR in each of last three weeks, massive efficiency (“Number one among all wide receivers in fantasy points per target: 3.2” – Seth [17:54])
• Usage: Functions as NE’s “Jameson Williams, except he’s actually hitting”
• Matchup: Atlanta runs most single-high in NFL (“since Week 4, Atlanta is giving up 7th most PPR points per target to perimeter WRs” – Derek [17:44])
• Efficiency: #1 in yards per target; top QB rating per target (143.8)

Quote:

• “All roads point to Kayshon Boutte having a great week once again here in week number nine.” – Seth [18:27]

Tight End Must-Start: Zach Ertz

Analysis & Rationale:

• Current ECR: TE14 (“too low, dude” – Derek [18:47])
• Usage: 2 TE1 weeks already
• Matchup: Seahawks defense—8th most yards and 4th most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to TE
• Coverage: Seattle uses 2nd most two-high shells, which pumps up target share for Ertz to 24.7%, 2.0 YPRR, 34.7% first read—“elite WR1-type usage”
• Team context: McLaurin is out, Ertz and Deebo will lead targets; “I’m playing Ertz over T.J. Hockenson or Mark Andrews, and it’s not even close, dude.” [20:31]

Supporting Evidence:

• Multiple TEs (Schultz, Kmet, Otton, McBride) have gone off vs Seattle recently
• Two-high defenses funnel underneath, tight ends see higher usage and efficiency

Notable Quotes & Highlights

Jared Goff Analysis

• “Jared Goff is going to sit back this week and say, fine, Brian, you want to blitz me? Bring it on, baby.” – Derek Brown [04:36]
• “It feels like whatever Minnesota is doing right now on defense, it’s not working, man.” – Seth Wilcox [05:23]

Running Back Trends

• “If I were to tell people Samaje P. Ryan is top 12 in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt, people wouldn’t believe me, Seth, but that is the reality.” – Derek Brown [07:50]

Wide Receiver Insights

• “All roads lead back to Alec Pierce this week.” – Derek Brown [12:59]
• “Number one among all wide receivers in fantasy points per target: 3.2. That’s an insane metric.” – Seth Wilcox [17:54]
• “He’s led the Titans in receiving in two straight weeks… I’d be delighted to throw him in a couple lineups this week.” – Seth Wilcox [15:52]

Tight End Take

• “When the coverage has been there… Zach Ertz has produced this year, dude.” – Derek Brown [18:54]
• “He’s probably available or he’s on your bench and … I’m playing Ertz and it’s not even close, dude.” – Derek [20:41]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Jared Goff Analysis: [03:17] – [06:58]
• Samaje Perine as Sleeper RB: [07:07] – [10:45]
• Alec Pierce as Must-Start WR: [11:18] – [13:07]
• Shmerek DK Sleeper Appeal: [14:24] – [15:37]
• Kayshon Boutte’s Rise: [16:41] – [18:27]
• Zach Ertz as TE1 Option: [18:47] – [21:44]

Summary Table: 6 Must-Start Players for Week 9

| Position | Player | Rationale/Matchup | |---------------|---------------|------------------------------------------------------| | QB | Jared Goff | Min pass D falling apart, elite metrics, blitz-proof | | RB | Samaje Perine | Efficient, increased usage, strong matchup (CHI) | | WR | Alec Pierce | Deep target, PIT perimeter D weakness | | WR | Shmerek DK | Slot work, LAC vulnerable inside, full route share | | WR | Kayshon Boutte | Hyper-efficient, ATL weak zone, big recent weeks | | TE | Zach Ertz | 24%+ target share, SEA funnels to TEs |

Final Thoughts

This episode is packed with actionable insights and sharp data-based recommendations. Derek and Seth use both advanced metrics and deep matchup/contextual notes to unearth this week’s most undervalued starting options, with special emphasis on coverage tendencies. If you’re chasing upside or desperate for flex/streamer help in Week 9, you’ll want to follow these picks.

“All roads lead back to Alec Pierce this week.” – Derek Brown [12:59]

“He’s probably available or he’s on your bench … and I’m playing Ertz and it’s not even close, dude.” – Derek Brown [20:41]

Don’t forget – keep an eye on injury reports, check your waivers, and use these insights to capitalize on the most exploitable matchups for Week 9!