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6 Must-Start Players for Week 9 | The Primer (Ep. 1810)
00:22:33
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- [00:00]
Derek Brown
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
Podcast Announcer
Fantasy Pro's Fantasy football podcast is brought to you by Grainger. If you work as a maintenance manager, your facility is your home turf and your home field advantage is having a partner like Grainger. They offer trusted professional grade products for every industry from lighting and electrical to safety and everything in between, plus next day delivery. Which is why they always come through in the clutch. Trust. Just like you.
- [00:28]
Seth Wilcox
Call 1-800-granger.
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Podcast Announcer
Click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.
- [00:35]
Seth Wilcox
All right. And welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. It's the week nine primer episode, which means we've got our top six sleeper starts that have matchups to target. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock and today I'm joined by a man who is seeing the field pretty dang well right now. He's Derek Brown. D RO how are you coming into week nine? After some pretty good hits last week, including the pride of East Palo Alto, California, Troy Franklin, baby, in last week's program.
- [01:05]
Derek Brown
Yeah, dude, Troy Franklin. For everybody that tuned in last week, the wide receiver 1 in weekly scoring last week. So if you know, you know, and if you flexed him, congrats on hopefully taking home a W in fantasy. But now we're back, man. I think, I think I might quietly have a player we've talked about in previous episodes, but he could be the Troy Franklin of this week. We shall see. But it's been good, man. I love the middle and later parts of the NFL season because the data sample we get continues to grow and the more data that we get, the more accurate hopefully we can be in projecting a lot of these situations, whether it's coverages, usage and everything in between.
- [01:46]
Seth Wilcox
Yeah, it's very fun because everything we thought in draft season is so out of the window and everything we even thought through the first month of the season is starting to fade away and. And you really have to continue to be on top of these changing trends as a fantasy manager, as a fantasy analyst if you want to take home those championships. So we're going to help you out today once again. And before we fire it up, shout out to all the fine people out there joining us either on the Fancy Pros YouTube channel or the audio feed. Thank you so much for all the support this season. Please give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content and also make sure you subscribe to the channel if you're new. We're trying to get to 300,000 subscribers by the end of the season and with your help we can get there. By the way and by the way, if you want a chance to win A signed A.J. brown Philadelphia Eagles jersey for free courtesy of our friends over pristine auction.com all you need to do is head to fancyprose.com contest complete the form neither a Download the free Fantasy Pros app, B leave a review for the podcast or c follow us on x Instagram or TikTok. We are at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you're going to receive and we will announce a winner right here on the podcast beginning of next month. So if you're watching on YouTube, make sure you ring the bell so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize if you are that lucky winner. And Derrick Brown, let's go ahead and get things started at the quarterback position where you're keeping things 100 once again with a QB that I think I don't say is disrespected in the fantasy community, but definitely undervalued time in and time out.
- [03:18]
Derek Brown
Well, I think it's being he's being undervalued because as good as Jared Goff is playing this season, it hasn't translated to consistent fantasy success because he doesn't run. But I I just want to give him respect and tell people like, look like you definitely should be starting in this week. He's QB13 and ECR, so right outside the top 12 and I'm starting him over a number of players this week. Like I would play Jared Golf over even Caleb Williams. I love him this week man. Like I know he's QB17 in fantasy points per game, but also, let's talk about the quarterback play for Jared Goff throughout the season. This dude is top six in every single per dropout metric that I care about. Seth, you, yards per attempt, passing, touchdowns, accurate throw rate, catchable target rate and the matchup this week is absolutely fantastic. Since Week 4, the Minnesota Vikings pass defense has fallen apart. Seth yeah, dude, since week four they have given up the highest yards per attempt and the highest pass rating and the third highest cpoe. They are getting shredded by downfield passing and if Jameson Williams would have been lower in rankings this week, I would have added him to this show because I think it's JMA week, dude. And for everything that Minnesota has struggled with and everything that they do, Jared Golf has been good against. They've given up a ton of deep ball production as well as Minnesota is blitzing at the highest rate in the NFL. That doesn't matter for Jared Golf, dude, out of all the quarterbacks, he has the highest yards per attempt and the second highest passer rating this season versus the blitz. So Jared Golf is going to sit back there this week and say, fine, Brian, you want to blitz me? Bring it on, baby. Downfield bombs are coming. Jared Goff is going to light it up.
- [05:04]
Seth Wilcox
Dude. Man, we get to this point every single season, it feels like, at least in the last two or three, where it's like, is Jared Goff a dark horse MVP candidate and you know, egg on my face a little bit. I was kind of down on this entire Lions offense coming into the season. We had the changes up front in the middle of that offensive line. We also had Ben Johnson leaving for Chicago. It doesn't matter. I mean, you mentioned it, man. Like clean pocket completion percentage, Jared Goff, number one in the NFL, 79.7 completion percentage. And then blitz completion percentage as well, 75.5. So it doesn't matter if you bring four, if you bring three, if you bring the house, this guy's gonna light you up. And it feels like whatever Minnesota is doing right now on defense, it's not working, man. Like, like, look, just a couple weeks ago, they face Dylan Gabriel over there overseas. Dylan Gabriel had two passing touchdowns come back over Jaylen Herz. Can't get anything right in the passing game. Oh, how about three touchdowns? 326 for Jalen Hurts. Best completion percentage or passer rating in Philadelphia Eagles football history. And then Jay Herbo, after a down week, gets going for three touchdowns last week. So maybe a, a good week also to bet some, some Jared Goff maybe over passing touchdowns. If, if that line's coming in at one and a half or two and a half even.
- [06:12]
Derek Brown
Oh, I bet you it's. Look, I, I'm going to pull it up while we're sitting here going through stuff. I bet you how much you want to bet Jared Goff's line is probably plus money. Like probably plus 115. Would you. What do you think of the line?
- [06:25]
Seth Wilcox
Is that.
- [06:26]
Derek Brown
Do you think it's minus money, Seth? Because I, I bet you over one and a half is probably plus money. What do you think?
- [06:33]
Seth Wilcox
If it's plus money, it's got to be bet. I'll say that if, if it's plus money, if we have it out sometimes we're getting a little bit later in the week, so we might not have that yet. But if it's at plus money, I think you have to hammer it honestly. Against this Vikings team.
- [06:46]
Derek Brown
Well, it's not plus money, unfortunately. It's extre steamed up. But I mean hard, hard rock bed. It's over. One and a half is minus 1 70. I'm not saying like you don't want to straight bet that, but if you're throwing that into a parlay.
- [06:59]
Seth Wilcox
Dirty parlay. Yeah, I like that. Like that. All right, Derek, let's go to the running back position where you have just one running back sleeper start for us this week yet again.
- [07:08]
Derek Brown
Yeah, dude. Like, I mean running back just gets gross and it gets gross fast. And a lot of the good situations guys are. Guys are pushed up in ranks. But there's one guy that I do think is getting disrespected and I think he is a really strong flex play and that's a maje P rya. He's at RB39 and I know people hear that name and they're gonna say dude, seriously, are you being real? Like, come on. But oh look, he is average of the last few weeks, 8.3 touches per game, 54 total yards per game and he's had 3 of 11 red zone rushing attempts. And if I were to tell people Samaj P. Ryan is top 12 in missed tackles, force per attempt and yards after contact per attempt, people wouldn't agree. People wouldn't believe me, Seth, but that is the reality. He's 9th and 12th in those two metrics. Now you stack all that up against a Bears run defense that since week four has given up the fourth most rushing arts per game, ninth highest explosive run rate for a player that's got a good matchup. And in the same game, like people will talk about this week, oh, you need to flex Kyle Manon guy because of same reasons. He's been productive, he's been efficient. He's probably going to flirt with 10 to 12 opportunities. He is getting respect in the rankings. But in the same game, a player with the similar outlook, Seth, who's probably going to get 10 to 14 opportunities has a chance at a touchdown this week and it is a really good matchup. Samaj P. Ryan needs to be discussed in that same breath and people aren't going to do it, but it's real.
- [08:34]
Seth Wilcox
Well and the reason that I was so high on Chase Brown after the first two weeks of the season is he was getting nearly every single opportunity in this Bengals offense. And and it has completely shifted where this is nearing a 5050 split right now. I mean Chase Brown last week 15 touches, P. Ryan 10. And P. Ryan very effective last week nine for 94 and one on the ground. So I'd love to see that. And he's someone here. Like, it feels a little dirty. It feels a little wrong to be after someone like P. Ryan, but at the same time, you laid out the case for him brilliantly. And Joe Flacco is kind of the boat that lifts all tides, if you would.
- [09:10]
Derek Brown
Yeah. And I mean, even if we get Jake Browning, right, as of recording this right now, Joe Flacco's practicing. His status is a little bit in the air. I do think that he plays this week. But to your point, regardless of whatever quarterback plays, I'm still in on P Rime, because the other thing is Cincinnati, look, they know how bad Jake Browning has played. So even if, like, yeah, Jamar Chase is going to get his targets, okay, let's. Let's not beat her in the bush. Like, that's going to happen. But also, if you're Cincinnati, if Browning were to start in this kind of matchup, wouldn't you also lean on your ground game just a little bit considering, you know, the deficiencies of the quarterback that would be under center and you could do that in this type of matchup. So any way you slice it, Samaj P. Ryan is a really strong flex play. If he scores this week and he gets 10 to like, say 14, 15 opportunities, he could be an RB2 this week.
- [10:00]
Seth Wilcox
Man, when you look at what we saw inside the red zone last week that we saw Jamar chase, he had three targets there. We saw Chase Brown have five total touches. Samaj P. Ryan right behind him at 2. T. Higgins is not getting looks here. The backup wide receivers are not getting looks. You have a Tanner Hudson target every now and then down there if it's not Kasiki. So, yeah, I'm okay with Samaj P. Ryan. He's one of those guys. He just does not go away, man, and pour one out for our boy Taj Brooks. Right? Does not see.
- [10:27]
Derek Brown
Oh, man. Yeah, man. Because the thing about it is Taj is a better player than Samaj.
- [10:33]
Seth Wilcox
Like, he is.
- [10:34]
Derek Brown
I was saying about Taj, like, all through draft season, like, I don't think Chase Brown is going to keep this CMC level workload. That was right. But I thought Taj could shove P. Ryan aside and that hasn't been the case.
- [10:46]
Seth Wilcox
Yes, sir. Guys, make sure you're dominating your fans football leagues this season with Fantasy Pros Premium now available for free for six months when you deposit and place your first wager at any of our partner sportsbooks, including Hard Rock Bet, baby. This is the easiest way to get full access to our top fans football tools all season long. Just go to fancyprose.com premium to get yourself started. And Derek, let's go ahead to the wide receiver position where you're going back to the well on receiver you were high on a couple weeks ago. That came through for us.
- [11:19]
Derek Brown
Yeah, I mean again, like I alluded to this at the top of the show, but I'm back in on it, man. We're back on the same shiz here. Like with Alec Pierce, bro. Like wide receiver 38. I'm going back to the well. And again, this is what we talk about with with the coverage data and why it freaking matters. Because Alec Pierce has been a a stud versus single high coverage. And he's been the deep, the downfield receiver for the Colts passing attack. And both of these things will meet up this week and coalesce into Alec Pierce having another strong outing. Since week four, Pittsburgh has allowed the 12th most deep passing yards per game and the ninth highest deep passer rating. So you look at Alec Pierce, who leads the team in deep targets. Hello, Alec Pierce. As well as you look at the Steelers secondary and I know you know, shut your y your ears ears for just a second or so because I'm, I'm, I'm going to give some dirty Steelers stats here. Steelers secondary also has the third highest single high rate. And again, like the reason I highlight all this coverage data is because it freaking matters against single high. Seth. Alec Pierce, 29.5% target share, four 3 yards per route run and a 33.3% first reshare. You add all of this stuff up together as well as just I'm piling on top, dude. It's not one data point. It's two data points. It's actually three data points because since week four, the Pittsburgh Steelers are giving up the second most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. So however you want to slice this baby. Deep passing shots from Daniel Jones. Single high coverage. The outside corners for Pittsburgh have sucked this year. Alec Pierce. All roads lead back to Alec Pierce this week.
- [13:08]
Seth Wilcox
Yeah. And I feel like I know as good as anyone how bad this Pittsburgh Steelers defense, specifically the secondary, has been. Like Joey Porter, say what you want about him. I still think he's a good cornerback, but he's continuing to everybody else around him.
- [13:21]
Derek Brown
That's bad.
- [13:21]
Seth Wilcox
Well, that's the thing. And like you look at the safety situation here we have Miles Killer brew. He's on ir you also are at a point where desean Elliott's going to be out of this game, who Elliott's been up and down with his Pittsburgh career, but has been, you know, really one of the better safeties we've had in recent years. They just made the trade this week for Kyle Ducker. He's probably going to be in the lineup right now. He'll start.
- [13:42]
Derek Brown
Yeah. Kyle Dugger is going to be in the starting lineup.
- [13:44]
Seth Wilcox
It's Juan Thornhill, It's Chuck Clark. Is Jabil Peppers. Like that's what we're looking at really for the Pittsburgh Steelers. So it is rough in that safety room. Jalen Ramsey, he's going to be the guy holding down the slot. So it doesn't really come into, into play here. So yeah, I, I think I'm very much on board with Alec Pierce continuing to just get a ton of bear yards, man. Like this guy, you look at what he's done, I mean he's got to be up there for ADOT. Yeah. Like right now he is number two in ADOT this season. 22.4 yards per target. So just insane. Fourth and deep target share. Love what he's been doing. Gives another receiver, Derek, who not only has been getting deep shots to him in Tennessee, but also some design touches as well for this young rookie.
- [14:24]
Derek Brown
Yeah, Shmer DK, man, wide receiver, 44 in ECR. I think he is very viable as a flex play especially in PPR formats. And last week, dude, he was a full time player with tower locket gone, had an 86 route share, 21 target share, popped off for 93 receiving yards and I don't think that's a flash in the pan. Dude, he had a 24 first read share which was second on the team behind Alec Amanner. And the reason I want to highlight DK here is because it's the coverage but it's also the fact that the Chargers secondary has been very good against defending perimeter wide receivers. Against the slot, not so much. Dude, they're giving up the 10th most PPR points per target to slot receivers as versus you look at conversely versus perimeter. Guys, it's a bottom 12 matchup. So I think you have a lot of things at play here for DK. One, he's been very good when he's been targeted. Two, he's a full time player. Three, it's. It's hot. Too high coverage. And since week seven he's at a 21 target per route run rate and 2.1 yards per route run against too high and then the Bolts being more vulnerable versus slot receivers than the perimeter. It all lines up for him to have another strong outing and be a strong flex play for everybody that needs it.
- [15:37]
Seth Wilcox
Yeah and DK was someone that we saw primarily running out of the slot to start the season. But last week, with Tyler Lockett released, Calvin Ridley injured, he played a career high in snaps last week, so that was great to see. And like ever since Brian Callahan's been out, this is one of those trends you have to follow is the firings of head coaches. He's been awesome and he's led the Titans in receiving in two straight weeks and you look at the more advanced metrics you laid out some of them, he's number three in all wide receivers in red zone Target Share Obviously the Titans don't get down there much, but when they do, Cam Ward's looking DK's way getting those design targets with one per game and 100 true catch rate as well, which is tied for first in the NFL. So I love DK. I call him now as one of my favorite rest of season sleepers earlier this week and I I'd be delighted to throw him in a couple lineups this week. I certainly spent the fab money on him to get him so he'll go right into a couple lines for me. And you have another receiver here who was a high priority waiver wire AD after Week one kind of slowed down. You know, the steam came off him. But as of late he is back in business baby.
- [16:41]
Derek Brown
Dude, K Sean Booty has been on fire, man. The fact that ECR has him as wide receiver one or excuse me, wide receiver 41 is disrespectful. And just to give more respect to K Sean Booty, he's been a top 24 wide receiver and in each of the last three weeks. Seth wide receiver 4 wide receiver 24 wide receiver 12 he's operating and I said this on Twitch earlier today, he is operating as New England's Jameson Williams. Except he's actually hitting and scoring fantasy points. Dude. And again, going back to coverage data, the Atlanta secondary has struggled over the last few weeks and they're running a ton of single high. They are running single high at the highest rate in the NFL and K Sha Booty has seen his target share. He his numbers come up against Single High. Single high has a 16.2% target share. That's up from 12.7%. His first read share comes up and since week four, Seth the Atlanta Falcons are giving up the seventh most PPR points Per target to perimeter wide receivers. It all lines up. I'm not telling you that Booty's gonna be a top 24 wide receiver for the fourth straight week, but can he be a strong flex play? Can he be top 36? Yeah, dude. Fully believe that, dude.
- [17:54]
Seth Wilcox
I am always drawn to these very efficient wide receivers. And even though he's not seeing some more of the intermediate and lower adot work that we'd like him to, I mean you just look at some of these metrics. Derek number one among all wide receivers in fancy points per target 3.2. That's an insane metric. First also in quarterback rating per target, 143.8. So Drake may having success every time he's target booty, which isn't a ton, but he's picking his spots and he's doing it wisely. So I, I've loved Booty this season. He's been a guy I've had to throw out in a couple flexes. The explosive rating is up. The yards per target is number one in the NFL too. All roads port to point to Keisha. Booty having a great week once again here in week number nine of the season. And bring us home Derek with a tight end who once again you're going back to the well on a guy who's been a little hit or miss as of late.
- [18:48]
Derek Brown
Well, it's. It just comes down to the coverage matchup and just in general, man, like Zachary, it's a tight end. 14 like is too low, dude. And I understand that's close to like he's tied in 15 and fantasy points per game. But when the coverage has been there in the coverage matchup and just the matchup for tight ends in general, Zach Ertz is produced this year, dude. Like he has two tight end one outings this season and you look at McLaurin's out, Debo and Ertz are going to lead the way. And this all goes back to again the coverage data. Seattle has the second highest rate of too high coverage in the NFL. And it matters because against too high, Zach ertz has a 24.7% target share. He has 2.0 yards per route run and a 34.7 first reacher like that is an elite wide receiver one type of usage number. And it leads the team even more than Debo Samuel. And then we add on all of this. I heard people like asking me a ton of questions about Dalton Schultz last week and I'm like, dude, no, you can't play Dalton Schultz. You're chasing points. But who did Dalton Schultz pop off against and why? Everybody was chasing points on a streaming tight end. It was against the freaking Seattle Seahawks, dude. They've given up the 8th most receiving yards to tight ends and the 4th most schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to the position. This all points back to. To Zach Herz being a tight end one, a strong tight end one this week, regardless of whether Jaden Daniels or Marcus Mariota is under center. I do think Jaden plays, but it doesn't freaking matter. Zach Herz is going to have a strong game. The matchup, the coverage data, all of it lines up. He's a top 12 option this week and he's probably available or he's on your bench and depending on if you're looking at like, do I play Zach Herz vs. TJ Hawkinson or Mark Andrews? I'm playing hers and it's not even close, dude.
- [20:41]
Seth Wilcox
Yeah, I mean, you mentioned it. Schultz, 9 for 98 just a couple weeks ago. Before that bye week where he went off. Before that, it was Jacksonville who they had lost. Breton, strange. But the week prior to that, Kate odin. How about four for 81? I'll take that week before Trey McBride, 752 on 11 targets. So, you know, even Joanne Johnson, the ghost of Joanne Johnson out there, 6 for 51. So it's been a really good stretch for the big men against the Seattle Seahawks. I don't know if that's just the coverage that Daniels is running out here.
- [21:13]
Derek Brown
They funnel everything underneath. That's what two high coverage is. It's, it's. You got the two safeties high and you're giv. You're taking away the deep shots and you're saying, look, we'll give you. You can run versus us and. Well, not Seattle because they have an elite run defense, but a lot of them, the two eye coverage is just. We're taking away the big plays. So you can, you can crush us with, I mean, death by a thousand cuts, but you're not getting the big chunk plays versus us. So a lot of the tight ends and you see running backs get elevated uses versus too high. So it all lines up, dude.
- [21:44]
Seth Wilcox
Well, and who else in this offense is someone that's going to command targets right now? You said it. No, Terry McLaurin, Debo, he's in, but he's been banged up all season long. Luke McCaffrey is not a thing. We can stop that right now. He's not a thing. And even JCM not getting the run that we're hoping to see from him as well. So like, unless it's a bit big Jeremy McNichols game again, I think Zach Hurts might be in for a big one. So I agree. Love that there Derek. That is going to do it though for us on this episode of the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. Comment down below your favorite week nine sleeper starts. And while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing to the channel. If you're new for Downtown Derrick Brown, I'm Seth Wilcox. Take care y'.
- [22:26]
Podcast Announcer
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- [23:09]
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- [24:41]
Derek Brown
This is an Iheart podcast.