FantasyPros – Fantasy Football Podcast

AFC Conference Championship Best Bets & Player Props (Ep. 1945)

Episode Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Joey P. (Joe Pisapia)
Guests: Andrew Erickson, The Welsh

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on best bets and player props for the AFC Championship matchup between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots. Joey P. is joined by Andrew Erickson and The Welsh as they break down their top wagers, key player insights, and betting strategies for Championship Sunday. The conversation maintains a lively and jocular tone, with plenty of side remarks and references to both football experience and pop culture.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. First Half Betting Edge

Welsh’s Take: Patriots First Half Spread

• Bet: Patriots -2.5 first half spread
• Rationale:
  • Patriots have 14 first-half wins against the spread, #1 ATS in the league
  • Undefeated ATS (2-0) in the first half during the playoffs
  • Expecting Patriots to lead by at least a field goal at halftime
  • Broncos’ offense, now led by Jarrett Stidham, faces major questions
  • "Patriots the best at it and they're going to do it again." (Welsh, 01:11)

2. Broncos as Underdogs: Too Many Points?

Andrew’s Take: Broncos +5.5

• Bet: Broncos +5.5 points
• Rationale:
  • Contests the big Vegas swing after Bo Nix’s injury (line moved over 6 points)
  • Broncos are 4-0-1 ATS & 4-1 straight up as underdogs this season
  • Patriots have struggled offensively against elite defenses, scoring <20 points per game last two weeks
  • Hostile Denver environment plus Patriots facing #1 team in sack rate
  • "Denver showed out when they've been counted out by the odds makers. I think again, they're going to do that in this matchup." (Andrew, 04:16)
• Notable Stat:
  • Home underdogs by four points or more in the playoffs are 10-0 ATS (21:58)

3. Drake May Player Prop: Passing Yards

Welsh’s Take: Over 223.5 yards passing (Drake May)

• Patriots likely forced to pass vs. Broncos’ elite run defense
• Drake May has surpassed this number in 7 of last 10 games
• Broncos have allowed >223.5 passing yards to QBs in 3 of last 5 games
• "As good as that Broncos defense is... I think the Patriots are going to do this and make this happen in the passing game." (Welsh, 06:40)

4. Evan Engram Breakout? Multiple Props

a. Andrew’s Take: Over 19.5 Receiving Yards; TD at +500

• Bet 1: Over 19.5 receiving yards
• Bet 2: Evan Engram Anytime Touchdown (+500)
• Broncos’ WR corps is banged up; Engram the X-factor, especially with a backup QB under center
• Patriots have struggled against tight ends (have given up multiple 100-yard TE games this year)
• "I want to ladder bet Evan Ingram this week... you can get him to 50 yards at close to 5 to 1 odds." (Andrew, 10:57)
• "Because this is such a low number, I think you can make a big profit off an Evan Ingram big type of game." (11:27)

b. Welsh’s Take: Over 2.5 Receptions

• Engram hit this in 5 of last 6 regular season games
• Patriots allow an average 5.7 receptions/TE per game
• Backup QBs tend to rely on tight ends as safety valves
• "Classic backup quarterback tight end where they can't air it out – they're going to look for that safety net." (Welsh, 13:12)
• Considering laddering receptions up to 4–5 for better payout

5. Fading Jarrett Stidham Rushing

Welsh’s Take: Under 14.5 Rushing Yards

• Stidham historically not a running QB (2.7 ypc)
• Patriots defense allows just 3 carries/game to QBs
• "I absolutely love smashing the under on 14.5 rushing yards for Stidham in this game." (Welsh, 16:45)

6. Cortland Sutton Under Reception Total

Andrew’s Take: Under 4.5 Receptions

• Tough matchup against Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez
• Transition from Bo Nix to Stidham at QB lowers passing ceiling
• Has been under this number in three straight games
• "Hey, the process, the process, the process. Take the under here." (Andrew, 17:13)

7. Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown (+220)

Welsh’s Take:

• Broncos have yielded TDs to TEs in 3 of their last 6 games
• Henry has scored 4 TDs in last 5 games
• Patriots likely to attack Broncos over the middle in the red zone
• "Unlike you guys, I think Drake May is going to have a successful game and Hunter Henry will be one of the reasons behind it." (Welsh, 17:54)

8. Fading the Broncos RB – R.J. Harvey

Andrew’s Take: Under 43.5 Rushing Yards

• Patriots elite run defense: no RB has exceeded 60 yards in any of last 11 games when healthy
• In postseason, no RB has even reached 25 yards
• Harvey's volume and efficiency have both trended down
• "Trust the process. Bet against running backs facing the Patriots run defense." (Andrew, 19:57)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Welsh, on Patriots covering first-half spreads:
  "I'm looking for them to be up by a field goal. Patriots the best at it and they're going to do it again." (01:11)
• Andrew on Broncos ATS as underdogs:
  "Denver showed out when they've been counted out by the odds makers. And I think they'll do that in this particular matchup." (04:16)
• Welsh, on Drake May’s role in the passing game:
  "As good as that Broncos defense is, the way Patriots are going to do this... is in the passing game." (06:40)
• Erickson, on Evan Engram’s upside:
  "With Jared Stidham, if I'm right about him honing in on Ingram... you can make a big profit off an Evan Engram big type of game." (11:27)
• Humorous aside:
  • On wearing random NFL gear and coaching youth teams, Joey P. jokes,
    "I'm always a Patriots fan, but I got NFL gear because this is what I do. I coach football." (08:59)
• Pop Culture Detour:
  • The chat briefly turns to debates over "best Batman" incarnations, settling on Christian Bale (14:43–15:02)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-----------|---------------------------------------------------------| | 01:11 | Patriots First Half Spread Pick – Welsh | | 03:26 | Broncos +5.5 Points Argument – Andrew | | 06:03 | Drake May Passing Yards Prop – Welsh | | 09:27 | Evan Engram Receiving Prop – Andrew | | 11:46 | Evan Engram Anytime TD Prop – Andrew | | 12:38 | Evan Engram Receptions Prop – Welsh | | 15:48 | Jarrett Stidham Rushing Under – Welsh | | 17:05 | Cortland Sutton Under Receptions – Andrew | | 17:45 | Hunter Henry Anytime TD – Welsh | | 19:20 | RJ Harvey Under Rushing Yards – Andrew | | 21:34 | Hard Rock "Best Bet" Recap: Welsh & Andrew’s Choices | | 22:36 | SGP Summary: Parlaying Patriots 1H and Broncos ATS |

Summary Table: Panel's Favorite Bets

| Analyst | Prop/Bet | Reasoning | |----------------|------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------| | Welsh | Patriots 1H Spread (-2.5) | Elite 1H ATS record; expect early lead | | Andrew | Broncos +5.5 | Line over-adjusted; Denver excels as home underdog | | Welsh | Drake May Over 223.5 Pass Yards | Forced to pass; track record vs. Broncos’ recent pass defense | | Andrew | Evan Engram O19.5 Rec Yards, TD | Slot role vs. weak TE D; targets likely up with WR injuries | | Welsh | Evan Engram Over 2.5 Receptions | Backup QBs favor TEs; strong recent volume | | Welsh | Stidham Under 14.5 Rush Yards | Low career rushing profile; Pats limit QB runs | | Andrew | Sutton Under 4.5 Receptions | Tough CB matchup; QB change limits ceiling | | Welsh | Hunter Henry Anytime TD | Broncos weak vs. TE TDs; Henry hot in recent games | | Andrew | RJ Harvey Under 43.5 Rush Yards | Patriots run D stifling; RB trends weak |

Final Parlay & Touchdown Calls

• Parlay (Same Game Parlay)

  • Patriots 1H -2.5
  • Broncos +5.5 full game
  • Odds: +431 (22:36)

• Anytime Touchdown Calls

  • Hunter Henry +220 (Welsh)
  • Evan Engram +500 (Andrew)
  • Both expect major TE usage, especially in the Red Zone.

Episode Tone & Closing Remarks

The show remains energetic and fun while providing actionable betting insights. The hosts engage in playful ribbing about their favorite teams, coaching youth football, and even movie preferences, making it relatable for both fantasy diehards and casual listeners. They close with reminders to check out the NFC episode and join their Betting Pros chat for more picks and banter.

For listeners, this episode provides a comprehensive breakdown of AFC Championship best bets, player prop angles, and expert perspectives for both sides—plus plenty of humor and camaraderie.