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AFC Conference Championship Best Bets & Player Props (Ep. 1945)
00:23:51
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- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast.
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B
Guaranteed Human new year, Same extra value meals at McDonald's. So now get two snack wraps plus fries and a medium soft drink for just $8 for a limited time only.
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A
Prices and participation may vary. Prices may be higher in Hawaii, Alaska and California. And for delivery. Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place your bets as me, Joey P, Joe P. Zappia. And this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead to championship Sunday and we've got one but two specials for you this weekend. First, let's start with the AFC special here. We're talking about the Broncos. We're talking about the Patriots. Andrew Erickson and I are on the edge of our seat hoping our paths could get back to the Super Bowl. And of course, if there's somebody who likes to throw a little cold water on the Patriots, it's our good friend the Welsh who's back.
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B
Yay.
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A
We missed the Welsh. He was moving. He took some days off to unpack and now we're going to unpack the AFC Championship game here. They've got their best bets for the game. We've also got some touchdown calls, same game, parlay all that stuff. So, Welsh, we haven't seen you in a while. We miss you. So why don't you kick us off here with your first bet for the AFC Championship game.
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C
All right.
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B
Well, you throw in a little bit of shade. Like, I don't think the Patriots are a good team. Well, my first bet is on the Patriots, but we're not going to go full game. All right, we're going to go first half, Patriots, first half on the spread, minus two and a half. It is floating around a lot of places. Might want to try to get you at three and a half. You got to get two and a half. The Patriots 14 wins against the spread in the first half this season. The number one first half team, ATS, they are currently two and oh in the first half during the playoffs and they have been a juggernaut. They have been a monster. Obviously. I'd also throw out that you're looking at the Broncos and what is their offense going to be able to do versus Stidham. I really like the position that the Patriots are in. I really like for them to be able to take this in the first half and I'm looking for them to be up by a field goal. So minus two and a half in the first half. One of my favorite bets, Patriots the best at it and they're going to do it again.
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A
Speaking of the first half of the AFC championship game, you can join us here live on Betting Pros to watch Seth Wilcock and Scott Bogman sweat out the first half of the AFC Championship Game 2:45 Eastern Time right here on the channel. Subscribe to the channel. Ring the bell to Licko's Ding so you get the notification when we are live. They're going to take you through their favorite bets for the game. The first half bets are going to sweat it out. Plus Welsh's bet right here and you can sweat along with them and make some bets right here on the channel. So make sure you join us live for AFC championship first half where with Scott Bachman and Seth Wilcock shout out to Seth taking over so I can watch my Patriots play because I don't have to coach football because the snowstorm looks like it's shutting down the entire area. As Andrew said, hopefully I just have power. That's the only hope.
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C
So, Andrew Apocalypse, make sure your phone is charged. You'll be good to go.
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A
Well, and if I had no Internet, that's going to be tricky.
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C
What? You got 5G, baby. Come on.
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A
I do have the 5G data, but, you know, that's true. Yeah. Oh, yeah, that's true. I always use that anyway.
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C
No.
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A
Excuse me.
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C
You might be cold. You might be cold watching the game, but you'll be watching.
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A
It might be freezing watching the game, but Drake May will keep you warm. That's right, Drake. Drake May. May. All right, let's talk about Andrew Erickson. What's your first bet? Here are the five for AFC championship Sunday.
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C
I am taking the Broncos with the points. Broncos plus five and a half. I think that the lines have shifted too far in favor of the Patriots because of the Bo Knicks injury. You know, they asked odds makers before the start of the season how many points all the quarterbacks were worth against the spread. Bo Knicks was worth four points. But we've seen how this line has shifted. It was originally going to be Broncos minus one and a half hosting the Patriots with Bo Nicks as a starting quarterback and it shifted over six points. And I think that's too much for Bo Nicks to. We talked about a little bit before we started recording. I mean, not the perfect quarterback. I think his biggest impact this year has been on the clutch factor and, and picking up first downs with his legs. But he hasn't been a great quarterback in terms of helping the Broncos cover spreads. The Broncos have been one of the more overrated teams this year in terms of covering when they've been a favorite this season, but as an underdog, they've covered four straight as an underdog. They're actually one of the few undefeated teams against the spread as an underdog this season. 4, 01 against the spread, 4 and 1 straight up as an underdog this season. So Denver showed out when they've been counted out by the odds makers. And I think again, they're going to do that in this particular matchup because I think for the New England Patriots heading on, this is the first time the Patriots have faced an elite defense on the road this season. We saw the last two weeks elite defense, elite defense. Their offense has scored less than 20 points per game in both of those contests. So I think that the way that we've seen this offensive line play, Will Campbell has been terrible over the last two weeks and now he's facing the number one defense in sacks generated and sack percentage. Like that concerns me. Drake May has six fumbles over the last two weeks. He had nine in the entire regular season. So it's one of these balls doesn't bounce in favor of the Patriots. You get short fields, tough place to play in Denver, hostile environment. So I do ultimately think the Patriots win because Bo Nicks, they're going to miss him in the fourth quarter in the second half. But I think this is going to be tight, more of a field goal type of game. So give me the Broncos with the points again. I'm rooting for my Patriots to win, but I think the Broncos cover.
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A
I agree. I think these two defenses will, you know, keep it tight here. I do. Like, I'm a little annoyed at all the Jarrett Stidham coverage that's coming out here recently, too, where it's all this. Look at what he did against, you know, the 49ers in this game and look at it like, stop, okay? Just stop with that. If he was that good, he would have gotten a job already somewhere else. He's a backup quarterback for a reason. Look how much he's being paid as a backup. Well, that's because they had a young quarterback and they could afford to pay a higher backup because they had a young quarterback. So Stidham, I'm sure will make a couple plays. I don't doubt that. But at the same time, let's just pump the brakes a little bit. Now. Speaking of those Drake May turnovers and Drake May season here, Welsh, your next pick has to do with Drake May. Let's talk about it.
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B
Yeah, I've actually got a Jared sit them one. We're going to do in a little bit as well, but I'm going to just go back to it. This is so weird. You guys are like, you're like, oh, we Patriots fans. And you both are just like, well, Jared stood him and the Broncos and covering like I'm the Patriots guy here. A lot of my bets are on the Patriots because I think they're the superior team. I, I feel like you guys are giving a lot more credit to Jared Situm than need be the Patriots. Guess what? The defensive matchups are not going to get any easier when you get to the super bowl if they make it. And they're a pretty good offense as well and Drake May pretty good quarterback. So yes, it's a great defensive matchup. Broncos the best out there, but that's also going to put them in a situation where Drake May is going to have to sling the ball. I don't think they're going to be as successful in the running game. It might lead to Drake May even running a little bit more. But I like the passing yards, so I'm going to go with the passing yards. Over at 223.5. That's the over on Drake May's passing yards. He has hit this in seven of his last 10 games and as a matter of fact, he's only gone under this passing line five times the entire season. Broncos, they've given this up to quarterbacks in three of the last five games played. But I thought this was interesting. The two that didn't go over the passing marker were against Trey Lance and Chris Oloken. So I think that as good as that Broncos defense is, the way that the Patriots are going to do this and make this happen is in the passing game. So Drake May over on the passing yards. That is bet number two for apparently my.
- [07:28]
A
Well, look, we're just giving the Broncos respect. Also, you have to keep in mind Andrew and I have a lot of bad memories of going into Denver and being disappointed. So there's a little bit of, you know, psychological issues that we're trying to work through here.
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B
Today you're doing the reverse thing where we are. You're in the playoffs and fantasy and you're down and then you text your best friend, congratulations, you won. It's over. Like, I know this game. I've done this game.
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A
You missed it though. On on out of bounds. We're recap so last week here on the Betting Pros Live, I was able to successfully jinx both the Bills and the Denver Broncos. I had my Denver Broncos headband. And then I had my Bills hat and going back and forth. And eventually I did get Josh Allen eliminated for the playoffs and Bo Nix eliminated from the playoffs. So it just.
- [08:14]
B
Why do you have all the other teams stuff? Because every coach, you're like, oh, because.
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A
Every year I coach three different flag football teams for NFL flag bag. So we get gear, and I got cool stuff laying around the house all the time. You know, when I. When I coach the Broncos, I get Bronco stuff. When I coached, you know, the Patriots, I had Patriots up. I already had Patriot stuff.
- [08:33]
B
But it's all 49ers here. Except I have. I have a hat from a unaired commercial that Joe Pizza P and I did that was potentially gonna air on, like, the NFL. Remember that? And it was the. It was a Chargers hat, and I wore it around. And every time people like, oh, you charge your fan, I'm like, ew, no. And I'm like, oh, I forgot. I'm wearing this Chargers hat that I was purchased.
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C
Well, Joe is slowly becoming that Homer Simpson meme where he comes out of the bush with just a different hat of a certain team.
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A
I'm always a Patriots fan, but I got NFL gear because this is what I do. I coach football. I do NFL shows. Nothing wrong with that. Hey, my Rams team from last winter, Undefeated Rams team. I got the big pennant hanging up right here in the office. You know why? Undefeated champions live forever. That's why.
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B
That might happen in the playoffs, too.
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A
We'll have to check out the NFC show for that. Erickson, you've got some bets on Evan Ingram. Let's take your favorite one here with the Denver Broncos.
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C
Yeah, I'm going to go with Evan Ingram over 19 and a half receiving yards. So what I'm expecting to see from Jared Stidham this week is more throws over the middle of the field. That's one of the main differences between him and Bo Nix. The other being he also takes way more sacks than Bo Nicks does. So that also plays into why I like the under in this game. But I think Evan Ingram is kind of the X factor for the Broncos passing attack. You look at the receivers for Denver. Cortland Sutton probably going to match up with Christian Gonzalez. Okay. That kind of takes him potentially out of the equation. The next two guys, Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant, well, they both got hurt last week. Both limited in practice on Wednesday. We'll see with them how they shake out in terms of the offensive game plan. But that leaves Marvin Mims, who I have been fooled once too many times trying to chase his points in production. So he I can all but guarantee an Evan Ingram breakout game because Marvin Mims broke out last week because Sean Bayton the usage never carries over from week to week. You look at the matchup, he lines up in the slot primarily again. So I like that in terms of Jared Sitting taking over as the quarterback and I think the Patriots have kind of been just mediocre against tight ends this year. 11th in yards allowed to tight ends this year 57.1. Evan Ingram before last week had gone over 20 receiving arts in three straight games. That Buffalo Bills are one of the best defenses against tight ends. So I'm not going to hold last week's dud against Evan Ingram even when those other receivers went down. I think with Jared Stidham, look, I don't expect you can't copy and paste all of his numbers, but he's thrown for at least 219 yards in his four starts in the NFL. Like I don't think he's going to go out there and throw for 100 yards. So if he's going to bring one of his receivers along for the ride, I'm kind of pinpointing and circling Evan Ingram as that player. He's four games with 40 yards or more, six 79 receiving yards. This is season high. Four tight ends the Patriots have faced this year have gone for at least 62 yards. They've allowed two 100 yard games, two tight ends. So I think that because this is such a low number, I want to ladder bet Evan Ingram this week because you can get Evan ingram to get 50 receiving yards at close to 5 to 1 odds and I just don't think that's a very high bar for him to pass based on what we could potentially see with the quarterback switch. So debate I'm seeing is if I'm right about Stidham like honing in on Ingram as the matchup to attack against this Patriots defense, then I think you can make a big profit off an Evan Ingram big type of game, especially with those other receivers maybe not as involved in the game plan as they're putting it together for Sunday's game.
- [11:47]
A
Now your third pick also has to do with Evan Ingram because you think he actually has the upside. If you're right about all this to score and that return is five to one.
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C
Well you can't run on the Patriots defense. So I'm not expecting any of these Denver Bronco running backs to find the end zone in any capacity. Again, Cortland Sutton has the tough matchup against Gonzalez. Troy Franklin has been the other red zone guy, but he's dealing with a hamstring injury. So I think that leaves Evan Ingram as the next man up in terms of usage in the red zone. So I love his odds. Again, 5 to 1. The Patriots second highest passing touchdown rate allowed this season because as I mentioned before, can't run on this team. And the Denver Broncos have been really inconsistent running game. We'll see if J.K. dobbins comes back. I think that he's a long shot to play. Harvey's been too inconsistent, especially near the goal line. So yeah, I like Evan Ingram a lot in this game and if I'm right about him, I'm going to be a very, very happy man.
- [12:34]
A
Now, Welsh, I don't want to leave you out of the Evan Ingram conversation because you've got an Ingram bet as well.
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B
Yeah, just when you thought you were done with Evan Ingram, it's the Evan Ingram show. Because I'm, I'm in the same space with Erickson here. I think Stidham is going to be targeting Evan Ingram and there might be. I don't know if I'm quite as comfortable in the ladder betting territory. But you know what, it's floating out there for us. But where I'm going, because I'm going on receptions that reception markers at like two and a half right now. He hit this in five of his last six regular season games. Tight ends have been on average getting just under six by 5.7 catches and over 50 yards receiving against the Patriots on the year. So kind of as mentioned, like, you know, that is an open space especially for Evan Ingram in that tight end market to be able to find some success. But, but also, you know, Stidham is going to be looking for safety net options. He's going to be facing a ton of blitz. He's going to be probably on his heels. The outside is going to be a tough spot for him to throw and I think Evan Ingram is going to be that safety net option for him. This is a classic backup quarterback tight end where they can't air the ball out and they're going to look for that safety net and that is where I think Evan Ingram is going to shine. I don't mind the receiving yards but I legit think it's going to be Stidham. But one look and then it is going to be dump off to Evan Ingram and Evan Ingram is going to have to play some yak. So I actually. The yards are cool. I Think I might ladder the receptions and play four to five in this one. This one is, you know, anywhere from like 120 to 115 on three receptions. I might play that up. And like Erickson, if he hits, we're going to be happy boys. If not, we're going to be swimming in sludge and it'll be a bad Evan Ingram and we'll, you know, curse his name for the rest of the.
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C
It's going to be the scene from the Joker or the Bat or Batman or the Dark Knight when the Joker lights up all that money on fire. Like, that's going to be betting on Evan Ingram to have a big game and him.
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A
Glad you land on the right Batman film eventually.
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B
There's a lot of Batman.
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C
There are Batman.
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B
There's a lot of references.
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C
Batman's not even. Batman's not even in that title of that movie.
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A
So he's the.
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C
He's the.
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B
Well, he's the Dark Knight.
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A
He is the Dark Knight.
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B
Yeah. That is it. Who's the best Batman, by the way?
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C
Who is the best Batman?
- [14:48]
A
I still say it's Christian Bale all around. I have a. I have a soft spot for Keaton, but in terms like the Batman part of it, I, I still got.
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B
I think hipsters want to be, like.
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A
Pretty good, too, to be honest.
- [15:00]
B
I think he's good.
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A
I think he does a pretty good job on it. It's a very different version.
- [15:03]
C
It's more.
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B
Hipsters want Keaton to be the guy and want him to be the only guy. But Bale was the best. Pattinson was underrated like that.
- [15:12]
A
Val Kilmer forgotten Batman, too. Just. I think Val Kilmer wouldn't have been better if it was more of a serious film, but it was so goofy that it didn't stand the chance. So let's go to the next bet. Yeah, let's go to the next one. By the way, before, if you want to keep conversations like this going, but instead about betting, go to our discord bettingpros.com chat it's free. It's fun. You get expert picks from guys like Matt Peralta on there. Plus, if it's NBA, if it's NHL, if it's football, we got everything going on there. College hoops is around the corner, too, with the big tournament looming in March. So make sure you go over and join our discord again, bettingpros.com chat next up, Welsh, Jared Stidham. You promised it, now deliver.
- [15:48]
B
All right, and look at this. We're playing an under because it's Jared Stidham. Jared Stidham, rushing yards opened up at 14 and a half and we are playing the under now. Him facing, you know, a lot of guys in his face, a lot of blitz and stuff could potentially have him moving through, but I wouldn't look back and sit him. Stidham, over his career, has 37 total carries for a total of 101 yards. That's like 2.7 yards. Just under 3 yards per carry over the last three years. When given an opportunity because he's had minimal opportunities, he has seen 14 carries. Those have equated to 12 yards. Patriots, they're averaging giving up about three carries to quarterbacks total. I don't think Stidham is going to be in a spot now, to be fair. You know, if all the guys are taken away, maybe he's able to bring it up. I just don't think that's going to be the case. I think Stidham, they're going to keep Ingram in low. They're going to keep guys like RJ Harvey. He's going to take a bunch of sacks, and I don't think the opportunity for him to be flying is going to happen. It hasn't happened in his career. I see why the line opened up there, but I absolutely love smashing the under on 14.5 rushing yards for ST in this game.
- [16:57]
A
All right, Andrew, for your fourth pick, between the Patriots defense and Jared Stadham playing quarterback, what kind of day does that portend for Cortland Sutton?
- [17:05]
C
Probably an inefficient day for the Broncos number one wide receiver. So I'm going to take the under on his receptions at four and a half. He's been under this number in three straight games. You are considering the tough matchup against Christian Gonzalez. You have a new quarterback under center, so I think this one is just. Hey, the process, the process, the process. Take the under here. Sutton's a good player, but he hasn't really played up to that level over the last couple weeks. So I'm taking the under here.
- [17:28]
A
Okay, the under for Cortland Sutton. So finally getting under from the undertaker. Love that. All right, Welsh, give me your last pick here, and then we'll get to our favorite picks. Some touchdown calls, a little sgp. Actually. We got a lot of stuff left in the show, but let's get to the last pick for you guys. First. Let's start with Hunter Henry for you.
- [17:45]
B
Yeah, speaking of, anytime touchdown, Hunter Henry. Anytime touchdown is where I'm going to go. Broncos have given up touchdowns to Tight ends in three of their last six games. Henry, four touchdowns over his last five games. And though we've seen guys like, you know, Booty or even like a Demario Douglas see like increased red zone targets, as mentioned, a bunch in here, the corner matchups, I guess we've talked about it on the other side, but you know, you're going to have the corner matchups locking down a lot of these guys and May is going to be looking at Hunter Henry. So I really like this spot for Hunter Henry. I think unlike you guys that Drake, May is going to have a successful game and Hunter Henry will be one of the reasons behind it. So anytime touchdown for Hunter Henry or them Patriots.
- [18:24]
A
For the record, I think May will have a successful game because he will make some plays. But the Denver Broncos off defense is very good. They are playing at home. It's a distinct advantage. It's tough building. I know they've been road warriors all year and they've been terrific at home and they've won all these. Excuse me, they've been terrific on the road, winning all these games in a row on the road. But I still got to give some credit to how good the Denver Broncos team is defensively. And Sean Payton's a good football coach. He's going to have them ready to play. And sometimes these weird things happen, right? You know, guys rally around a backup quarterback. Look what happened all those years ago to the Rams, right? Kurt Warner, but a little late in.
- [18:56]
B
The game, Nick Foles. Nick Foles tweeted out like, hey, don't let, don't sleep on the backup quarterback.
- [19:01]
A
Show your mouth.
- [19:02]
C
You know who used to be a backup quarterback too? Tom Brady. Right? He was back.
- [19:05]
A
That's right. That's right. Thank you, Andrew. Actually, I don't know if I'm happy about that analogy or sad about it.
- [19:12]
B
Do you guys even hear yourselves? By the way?
- [19:13]
C
Broncos are going to cover. That's all I care about. They're going to cover.
- [19:16]
B
Okay.
- [19:17]
C
Yeah.
- [19:17]
A
All right, let's talk about your final pick here, Andrew. What do you have here?
- [19:21]
C
Last but not least, RJ Harvey, under 43 and a half rushing yards slammed the under on Woody Marks last week. He didn't even come. He didn't even 20 yards despite having double digit carries. Because you can't run on the Patriots defense. We got Milton Williams, you got Tonga, you got Robert Spillane, just you can't run on the Patriots defense. No running back has more than 60 rushing yards through the first 11 games played when they were all healthy through two playoff games. None of the running backs have exceeded 25 more rushing yards. So I think this is just rinse and repeat. J.K. dobbins maybe comes back, maybe he doesn't, but R.J. harvey has been under 43 and a half rushing yards in his last three games and his rushing yards have actually decreased in six straight games. So trust the process. Bet against running backs facing the Patriots run defense.
- [20:04]
A
All right, trust the process too with our sponsor Hard Rock Bet. If you haven't already, download the Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app because we are brought to you by Hard Rock Bet, Florida's big sports book. And for those folks who you know have been crazy all year with football, this is a crazy opportunity for you to get into a little wager here and there on some of these games. Here on Sunday you got the big games here, AFC Championship, NFC Championship, who knows. You can bet the props. You can bet the game. You can bet whatever you want. Hard Rock Bet. And if you miss kickoff, don't worry, Hard Rock Bet Live is going too. So you can bet in game live action all the time. But you have to go right now and get the special offer. $5 if you bet it and you win. You get 150 in bonus bets when you win, plus your winnings only at Hard Rock Bet in between same game parlays. Live Betting can't miss offers, new promos dropping every day. Hard Rock Bet is the place to have you covered all postseason long from now through the Super Bowl. So download the Hard Rock Bet app today and make your first deposit payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by the Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in other states must be 21 plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833 playwise in Indiana. If you are someone you know has a gambling problem wants help, call 1809 with it. Gambling problem call 1-800-Gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, let's talk about it here. Welsh what is your favorite bet for AFC Championship game?
- [21:35]
B
Of the five bets that I've laid out for you, I absolutely love New England to cover the spread in the first half minus two and a half. As I said before, they have been monsters at it. They've been the best in the NFL at it and they're going to do it again in this one. So Patriots minus two and a half first half spread that is my Hard Rock best bet.
- [21:54]
A
Andrew, what is your Hard Rock best bet for AFC Championship Sunday?
- [21:58]
C
Taking the Broncos with the points plus five and a half. Matt Pearl mentioned this stat nugget earlier this week. That four point or more home underdogs in the playoffs are 10 and oh against the spread. So they've been undefeated so far this season against the number or in past seasons against the number. And when you look at Drake May, when He's faced top 10 defenses this year, he's been sacked at least five times in every single match against top 10 defense and he's thrown at least one interception. So I think that's enough where he's they're getting stalled out drives, there's a potential turnover here or there and I think that's enough to keep this within a field goal. So give me the Broncos even if the Patriots end up winning it in the fourth quarter.
- [22:37]
A
All right, you put those two things together at Hard Rock bet you get plus 431. So that is our SGP here for the AFC Championship Game. And if you're looking for touchdown calls, don't forget the guys already made them. You got Hunter Henry plus 220. Evan Ingram plus 500. They're looking for Evan Ingram to have a big day potentially here for Jared Stidham and the Denver Broncos. But if you're going to place these bets, do it over at Hard rock bed again, five bucks if you win. Get your 150 bonus bets only at Hard Rock Bet. Gentlemen, great job today as always. And if you love this, you're gonna love the NFC one even more. So make sure you subscribe to the channel, subscribe to the podcast feed and check out our NFC Best Bet show as well. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on. For Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids. Enjoy Championship Sunday.
- [23:24]
B
I'm also the Welsh. Bye.
- [23:25]
A
I didn't say in the Welsh. Nope, because you haven't been here in a couple weeks.
- [23:29]
B
Go Patriots.
- [23:30]
A
I'll do it again for the Welsh and Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids. That time it was the Welsh too.
- [23:38]
B
Boom.
- [23:42]
D
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X&TikTok, eddingpros and Instagram ettingprosnfl. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel channel@YouTube.com bettingpros.
- [24:12]
E
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- [24:40]
A
This is an I heart podcast. Guaranteed human.