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Are We Buying Trey Benson or Cam Skattebo? | Week 4 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1728)
00:35:20
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- [00:00]
Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
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- [00:31]
Andrew Erickson
Lenovo.
- [00:35]
Ryan Warmley
Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined as I am every Tuesday morning by Andrew Erickson. It is extra early because Erickson has a flight to catch, which is extra rude because it gives me less time to recover from that Monday Night Football game. Yet I am still here trying to power through. I told you before the show, I am pretty much good if the Ravens stop playing primetime games. Cause I've been deeply unhappy multiple mornings here this season. You know, you wait all off season dreaming of big things, and now it's already like, oh, boy, they're staring down, you know, the possibility of one in three going up against the Chiefs next week, and I'm not feeling great about it. Eric.
- [01:14]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, not only do the Ravens keep losing games, but you're losing sleep now because you have to stay up all night to watch these Ravens games for them just to lose. Because Derek Henry keeps fumbling the ball. I mean, he's putting on his best Ramandre Stevenson act by fumbling the ball in the fourth quarter. Three fumbles in three games. Does he have the yips again? I've never seen a guy of his stature look so defeated on the sideline. He's King Henry. And I was immediately thinking about that meme where it's Mario and he's like, you drop this king. And I'm like, derek Henry, you dropped the ball again, even though you are the king. What's going on, man? Yeah, not good vibes from the Ravens right now.
- [01:49]
Ryan Warmley
That actually is a pretty funny meme. I won't put it on the Fantasy pros account for. For, you know, personal reasons, but that is a pretty good one. Yeah, I.38 to 30, by the way, is the final. We do usually talk about Monday Night Football. I don't know that there's actually much to say. Even setting aside the jokes of me being, you know, depressed this morning because we expected a really high score game where everybody kind of shows out. That is basically what happened. We did get our first good games this season from Mark Andrews, Andershot Bateman, who had 6 for 91 and two touchdowns for Andrews. Bateman was 5 for 63 and one touchdown. They had the most targets on the team. The Lions took away Zay Flowers who had been really good this year. I don't think we're panicking on him. I still think he's a really high floor player who's going to have spike weeks. I, I, I continue to be worried about the touchdowns, which obviously he didn't get one yesterday. I, I was also saying to you, just like I, I think so far the start of this season is proving that Lamar is the most valuable player if, if we are accounting for the team around him because he basically is playing with last year's Bengals defense right now and he's playing with a, like the offensive line looks really bad now. They faced a couple of, of really good defensive linemen, you know, Miles Garrett, Aiden Hutchinson, but, but it doesn't look good. And now his, his superstar running back which was the big case against the winning MVP last year. Like, oh well, he is Derrick Henry. It has a fumble in every game, including two in the fourth quarter of the losses. So like, and Lamar's been playing amazing through it. Like I think this is the best he's ever looked, honestly. It's just everybody else around him is letting him down.
- [03:11]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, definitely the, I don't know what the MVP odds are right now, but I assume it's Lamar, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert. It's got to be those three guys at the top across the board.
- [03:19]
Ryan Warmley
I wouldn't be surprised if Herbert ends up winning just because people like to give it to, you know, a new winner for the first time. And he does look awesome and the Chargers are going to win a lot of games. But I, my point is less that like Lamar must be the favorite and, and just that like he looks amazing despite everything around him being terrible.
- [03:34]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah. And I imagine now if teams are looking at Derrick Henry and now don't try to just tackle, just get, go after the ball. Like, like maybe that's a new strategy for teams because he's so hard to tackle anyway. It's, hey, forget about trying to tackle this guy. Just go for the weak spot. Go for the ball. So we'll see how Derek Henry rebounds in week four against. Hey, another tough matchup run defense for the Kansas City Chiefs.
- [03:55]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, it's tough because like you're not sitting Derek Henry right. Like that's not the advice we're coming on here giving but like I would definitely like avoid him in some kind of any kind of daily fantasy format. And like I would, I would be lowering my expectations if you are the type of person who makes like fringe starting decisions, like, oh my God, my second flex. If I expect these other guys to have a bad day, I'm going to go for the higher ceiling rather than the higher floor, which, you know, I, on the one hand I, I sometimes say like, just pick the guy you think is going to score the most points. But on the other, like, I totally get that as a lineup setting strategy. I would, I would have a low expectation for Derek Henry this week because I, the Chiefs are good run defense and it like you mentioned the yips as a joke. But like I do think it's one of those things that when this starts to spiral it because like I don't think him fumbling initially was like a sign of things to come, even if it plays out that way. Because I think you become a mental thing where, where it almost has a snowball effect. And just like you, you get this, that snowball becomes an avalanche. Right. And it just gets worse and worse because it becomes a mental thing.
- [04:55]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I mean we see these things spiral like you said. And if he now he's thinking about it. Right. It just become an issue because again, it's never an issue until the guy starts fumbling the ball and it's like, well, what's going on? You start second guessing yourself. And this is just so is with any type of athlete when you start to go through a slump, you know, whether it's in baseball, whether you're a kicker, you're missing field goals. Like, it's not about his inability to be a running back and hold onto the ball. It's just, hey, you got to squeeze the ball. And now defenses know that they're going to attack that. So one last thing with the Ravens too. Mark Andrews, is he a sell high after two touch one garbage time touchdown as well. If people didn't finish watching the game, one of them was in total like garbage time.
- [05:26]
Ryan Warmley
Listen, the way Andrews has been playing this year, you don't care if it's garbage time. You'll take what you can get.
- [05:32]
Andrew Erickson
I, I, I, because likely is coming back.
- [05:35]
Ryan Warmley
I, I was going to say likely is going to be back soon. For as much as we really like likely and think he could be a superstar, he has never really actually overtaken Mark Andrews. And the opportunity might have been there if Andrews was playing really poorly, you know, but if he's starting to play better like Lamar, Lamar does trust Likely, but he will. Look, Andrews is the guy that he trusts more than anybody, particularly in the red zone. And if Andrews is playing well, like multiple years now, we said like, likely. It's kind of more explosive as a player and has better yards after the catch. And yeah, it's always been Andrews, you know, by the time we get to a couple months into the season. So I actually am really genuinely torn on answering that. I don't know if he's a good sell high or not. I wouldn't blame anybody for selling high and saying, let's, you know, jump on this opportunity because you don't know when you're going to get it again. But I also would not be surprised if this is similar to last year where it's slow start and then it just turns into a guy who's like gonna catch 10 touchdowns because the offense is really good and that's who Lamar looks to.
- [06:41]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah. I mean, if I can flip him for Tucker Craft right now, I'm trying to do it after. Craft's coming off a stinker, so.
- [06:46]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I do like Crafts better. The, the. The last thing I was gonna say on the Ravens, then we will move off this game is I said before the season that the. My biggest concern for the Ravens was the rush defense. I don't think people talked enough about Michael Pierce retiring. He did a lot for them in terms of the run defense. And like, I know people were very surprised because it's the Ravens, they're at home in prime time. And seeing them get run all over the way they did, I was not that surprised. I actually was surprised that the longest run Gibbs had was nine yards. That was surprising. I thought. I know that Montgomery have the 70 yarder was just crushing. But I, I really, like, I think a lot of teams are going to run on the Ravens this year. Like, I, I don't. I think this. I have a lot of faith in the secondary. Secondary long term. This season, I don't have that same faith. I mean, especially if Matt, we hurt like, like long term and he's a.
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Andrew Erickson
Neck issue that, like, that's a big loss for them.
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Ryan Warmley
Yeah. No Van. No. No mad week. Like, I don't know. I, I would be concerned about the rush defense and like, I know Isaiah Pacheco is tricky to, to, you know, discuss what to do with him right now, but I would probably start him against the race.
- [07:54]
Andrew Erickson
Dude, if you want 45 Russian yards, he's your guy.
- [07:58]
Ryan Warmley
All right, let's jump into our buys and sells. This is our Running backs show we're going to be splitting this into two parts all season long. So this one we're going to talk to a macro level trade strategy and then dive deep into the running backs to buy and sell. We'll have a second part where we hit on receivers, some quick notes on quarterbacks and tight ends and, and you know, take it from there. But this will be the running back one. So please, you know, watch or listen to both shows if you're interested. Before we dive in, we do like to get some kind of high level, 30,000 foot view trade strategy advice from Ericsson. So heading into week four, what are you looking at right now?
- [08:31]
Andrew Erickson
Look at the rookies. That's who I'm going to talk a lot about trying to go after and trade this week. We saw some rookies break out in week three. I wish that I was sharp enough to be ahead of the curve when it came to a Marian Hampton and Quinton Judkins. I was not. I didn't bring up either guy last week. If anything, I was kind of pouring cold water on Omarion Hampton. Najee gets hurt and now like the whole rest of season outlook looks completely different from Aaron Hampton after coming off his best game of his career. So again, just a reminder that sometimes rookies, it takes a couple weeks to get them going. Sometimes it's just like you just need that one matchup which I'm going to talk about today as well with some of the players we're looking to buy is hey, sometimes the first couple weeks of the schedule are just tougher matchups against good defenses against that position and that's maybe why these rookies aren't necessarily firing. But yeah, a couple weeks in, we saw it in week three. Guys that didn't start that great ended up breaking out. So I want to be ahead of the curve again targeting some of these rookies that are disappointing on people's fantasy benches.
- [09:24]
Ryan Warmley
I mean like we're not, we don't have him on the list of players to talk about today, but just looking in that same game, RJ Harvey hasn't had that breakout yet, so he probably is still affordable. And would it shock anybody if I we don't want this to happen. But would it shock anybody if J.K. dobbins got hurt and was going to miss significant time and all of a sudden now there's this opportunity, right? Like I like those injuries happen all the time. It's the NFL and there is a particularly, you know, injury riddled history player in front of Harvey right now. So like, I mean, he just, he just is a good example of like, you know, it maybe you quote, unquote missed the boat on Hampton. There are other rookies that you, you maybe haven't missed the boat yet and that upside is still there even if we, we're seeing what the floor can be also.
- [10:06]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, use the Hampton breakout. Not as a, a, oh, this was a missed opportunity, but a reminder like, hey, like this can still happen. Like these rookie running backs can still break out this season. It's. They're not, you know, not all is lost when it comes to these players. And to the Harvey point, I didn't mention him. He's not a specific buy, but he's another player that I want to try to get if I can get him for dirt cheap because of the Dobbins injury history. And he started the last game like he, he was the starting running back for the Denver Broncos. He had four touches on the first two drives. And if Dobbins had more of a bigger impact in the later part of the first half and in the second half of the game and obviously had a better box score at the end of it. But Harvey just getting the starting nod just is an indicator that, hey, there's someone that this player, this coaching staff is excited about and I think he's going to have a bigger role as the season progresses. So again, not someone I want to bring up specifically, but someone that, hey, keep your eyes on, especially if you can get them really cheap.
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Ryan Warmley
You've got not one, but two rookie running backs in your running backs to buy segment. Let's start with the first one.
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Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I'm going to go with Ashton, Jenny, because I think that week four is going to be his breakout game. I think that when you look at what he's done so far through three weeks, it has not been great. It's been lackluster, I think, to say the least. But he's still doing the things that we expected when it comes to forcing missed tackles. Through three weeks, he's top five in the NFL and forced missed tackles, and he's coming off his best game to date, 63 rushing yards. So I've seen steady improvement from Ashton Genti every single week. You know, he's getting better every single week as he's getting another NFL game under his belt. And I think he's had some tougher matchups against some of the better run defenses in the NFL. But this week that's not the case. Like he's based in the Chicago Bears. Like no team gives up more yards before contact than the Chicago Bears. So whenever you watch these Raiders games, you're seeing Man Genti has no space to run. There's nowhere for him to go. Like, he keeps breaking all these tackles for 2 yard gains. That's not exciting. But this is the matchup where, oh, you can finally see him ripping off some of those big runs that made him such a household name at Boise State. So Ash and Genti, for me, I think that managers might be just starting to get sick and tired of, man, this guy was supposed to be so good. He's not that good. He's averaging two yards of carry. This guy is not that. Not the player I thought he was going to be. I want to get rid of this player similar to kind of what we were, the sentiment around Hampton a little bit before Najee Harris's injury. So I think right now this is their time. Like, if you're going to go after Genti, you have to do it before week four because I think this is going to be his breakout game.
- [12:18]
Ryan Warmley
Do you feel like, and maybe this is less of a question specific to Genti and more of a macro level, kind of just your, your experience with making trades in fantasy, do you feel like managers are less willing or at least they have a higher asking price for players that they drafted really early? Because I do feel like, like even if you, if, if a manager in a vacuum would look at Astro Genti and say, yeah, this has been disappointing, I want to sell him with the name value. I feel like a lot of the managers that I interact with in trying to trade in my leagues, maybe this is just anecdotal, but I feel like a lot of them are like, if I spend a first or second round pick on this guy, I am much less willing to accept the sunk cost of selling low. And like, even if you go down with the ship and that happens like, like if Jente was a true bus this season, all season long, there are managers out there who would still be starting him in week 11 and they'd be, you know, 2 and 8 on the season because they just keep rolling him out. Like, like I do you have that experience too, where maybe you. It's not as easy to buy low on a guy like Genti just because, hey, I spent the 14th overall pick on this guy. I can't, I literally can't sell low even if I want to. Does that make sense?
- [13:32]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, no, I think that definitely makes sense. It's definitely hard to get the players that were drafted so highly because those Managers want to see the roi. They want to see this pick work out. They don't want to jump ship like you said so early on. But if you are 03 and Astro Jetty is a big part of why you're 03, I I think that you may be more opt to move off of him because you may even acknowledge, hey, I think that Genti could still be a big hit in the second half of the season but I'm sitting at 0 and 3 right now and I can't afford to wait necessarily. So maybe if you're looking for a Genti trade, you look for a manager that is 03 with Ash and Gendy because we know that the Owen 3 teams are much more and this goes into the other macro level of kind of approaching trades this week is the Owen 3 managers. Like those are the managers you want to come after when it comes to trades because they're going to be open for business as they try to blow up their team and try to make moves because they want to get back in contention. You don't want to start 04 or even like 05. So I think that would be my other layer of okay, a 3.0team with Genti. They're probably not going to move him because they hey, it's been okay like I'm still winning games. Genti is going to be continuing to get better. The Bears matchup is really good this week. I'll hold him But I think an 03 team that has Ashton Genti might be more opt to move off of him.
- [14:42]
Ryan Warmley
I is there is there just because he's a big name. I want to ask you one more follow up question on Genti. Is there a specific name in mind of a type of guy you would look to move for him?
- [14:50]
Andrew Erickson
Travis Etion.
- [14:51]
Ryan Warmley
Okay.
- [14:51]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah.
- [14:51]
Ryan Warmley
Rest of season rankings they are very close. Genti's RB11 and ETN is RB14. So not far off.
- [14:57]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think that and I think that's a deal you get done just based on what they've done so far.
- [15:02]
Ryan Warmley
All right. Who's the other rookie running back that you want to trade for? Ed, by the way, I think has been mentioned on every episode of the show so far this season.
- [15:09]
Andrew Erickson
Yep. Travan Henderson. Because this has to be the time to get him because if he doesn't hit against the Carolina Panthers, who the Patriots are playing in week four after you saw both veteran running backs of the Patriots fumble combined for three fumbles in week three. Stevenson had two, Gibson had one. After those guys fumbled, they didn't touch the ball again in the fourth quarter. It was all travy on Henderson. So I know Mike Grable said postgame that they still want Ramadre to be a big part of what they're doing, but moving forward, yada, yada, et cetera, et cetera. But I don't think that that's necessarily going to be indicative of what we see. I think that this is going to be Henderson's opportunity to kind of take this backfield and carve out a standalone specific role. We already know what he can do from a pass game perspective, but the explosive rushes really haven't been there for him this year. Even though he's averaged four targets per game, he still hasn't ripped off that really big run. And even if you just look at the box score from last week, really low yards per carry, I don't think he looked bad. He just, he just didn't get any space to rip off one of those big runs. But if he's ever going to run for a 50, 60 yard gain, it's going to be against Carolina Panthers. Like, we know this is the worst run defense in the NFL and I know that even the Falcons didn't score against the Panthers last week. You still saw some big runs from Bijan Robinson, especially as a pass catcher. So I think this has to be the game for Henderson to really hit. And the Patriots actually have a lot of good running back matchups coming up even after they face Carolina at home this week. So I think that right now is this is kind of like a chance to get in on Henderson because I think that week four, again similar to Genti, is a breakout potential game for this rookie running back.
- [16:39]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, like Henderson, the case is so clear. Right. Like there has never been a more obvious like this will be an opportunity here because of the fumbles of everybody else in the backfield. And he's not a guy who fumbles himself. So I get it. I mean, I guess kind of same same for Genty. I'm curious, like what you think an appropriate price is to pay for Henderson because unlike Genty, this was not a first round pick for people. So they, you know, I think are maybe more inclined to say, like, yeah, I just want to be done with it. But there are going to be, you know, pretty smart managers who look at the same situation and say, well, let me hold on one more week because I think the breakout's coming. So if you want to entice them that manager and say, no, I know you want to hold on for one more week but I am this convicted about it. Like how how aggressive are you willing to be in this trade?
- [17:31]
Andrew Erickson
Would Keenan Allen get it done? A player that's performed at a really high level has scored a touchdown every single week. Another player that comes to mind, Tony Pollard is getting all the usage in the Titans backfield, scored a touchdown last week has really good I mean the thing with Henderson is the usage has been really up and down and really inconsistent where he's not seeing as many touches as you'd feel confident about starting him in your lineup every single week. So those are some names that I've kind of thought about. Maybe it's not aggressive enough, but those are some names that come to mind of players that kind of profile a little bit as like sell highs. Whereas Henderson maybe not technically like a buy low, he's a buy low based on the box score and you know, just depending on how that manager feels about what his outlook is going to be just given the current status of the Patriots running back depth chart and the lack of ball security that they.
- [18:18]
Ryan Warmley
Have, I think Pollard is a good one. Especially if like let's say the Chase Brown manager is also the Trayvon Henderson manager. Like somebody who is saying like I just need somebody who has a higher floor if they're because I'm 03 and you know my RB1 is now looking really bad rest of season because of the offensive situation, you know, for whatever it is, I think a situation like that a guy like Pollard would be would be pretty appealing to an 0 and 3 manager who's looking to avoid, you know, going on 4. So I, I think that's a good one. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. We know Tuesdays are for scouting the waiver wire. Once you're done finding your diamond in the rough, maybe with the Fantasy Pros Waiver planner, head on over to Hard Rock Bet. See what your new players odds are to score another touchdown or double down and take the over on their yardage total this week. Week four doesn't start till Thursday, but there's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but $150 in extra bonus bets. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and Check out what you've got any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable and bonus bets Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC and other states. Must be 21 and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call-888- admit it in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois and New.
- [19:59]
Andrew Erickson
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- [21:02]
Ryan Warmley
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- [22:08]
Ryan Warmley
All right, running backs to sell Erickson, who do you have?
- [22:11]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, so these are some players I already mentioned as guys that I would sell for the players that we were trying to buy. So the first guy is Travis etn and this is a player that I have a decent amount of in most of my leagues because I liked him at his cost. This year I liked going into the Jaguars backfield and ETN has performed well above what we kind of expected as a running back, kind of going outside that top 30 range. But this past week kind of brings up more concerns for me. So we saw Jacksonville kind of use more of a three man committee more than we saw the first two weeks. ETN snaps were down to 54% but Quint Allen, the seventh round rookie, he went up to 30. He actually led the team in routes run Bay Shell Tootin also played 17 of the snaps. He also scored another touchdown. So three headed committee for the first time all year. And I actually mentioned and teased ETN as a sell high in last week's beyond the waiver wire piece just because I I was looking ahead at some of the schedule for ETN and it gets pretty tough. The first two weeks of the season he had really good matchups for a running back and he had those really explosive running plays. The thing with ETN that I want to point out is his yards per carry 5.9 that ranks third in the NFL. But when you look at his success rate, which is a better indicative or better way of describing how a player is actually rushing on a down to down basis, he's seventh worst in success rate. So his yards per carry is really boosted by a lot of his really big runs that he had over the first couple weeks of the season. In this past week it was a tougher matchup. His yards per carry was not nearly as efficient and I just don't like a lot of the matchups he has over the next couple weeks. He's got the 49ers, he has the Seattle Seahawks that he's playing, he has the Los Angeles Rams that he's going to be playing. So I am concerned that his efficiency is going to continue to decline and they're going to use more of these running backs and the fact that he only had two targets last week that they're using La Quint Allen more as a pass catcher. I am one of the biggest fans of Bashel Tootin. Again, I really still think that he can be this year's Bucky Irving and that concerns me for ETN down the stretch in the second half of the season. Does ETN have a vice grip on this RB1 role the rest of the way? I'm not so sure. So ETN has been great if you drafted him, but I think right now is a time to, hey, I can really cash out for a strong return. Which is why I think you can potentially get a guy like an Ashton Genti. Someone's been really disappointed that you're like more in the second half of the year. Whereas etn, I'm not as optimistic just based on the upcoming schedule.
- [24:25]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, you know, I was gonna, the first point I was gonna bring up to just play devil's advocate was gonna be that, you know, in terms of the usage this week, like, this was a kind of a weird game and B, like Houston's defense is really good. And maybe in other matchups, you know, we wouldn't see it play out that same way. Maybe that was something specific for this game. But you are right. You were mentioning some of the, the defenses that they are facing coming up. You didn't even mention the Chiefs that they're playing in two weeks, which is another tough one. So, you know, before the buy, it's, it's a, it's a pretty tough stretch. And then coming out of the buy, they get the Raiders, but then after the Raiders, they get Houston again and then the Chargers, who are a really good defense. So, you know, between now and week 11, they get like one, maybe two, you know, good matchups. It's, it's not a tough, it's not a good stretch now. It's a little bit easier later in the season. But you know, you're, you're worried about right now if, if you are, you know, wanting to sell high, capitalize on his strong start, you. Because you won't be able to do that later if these matchups do present real issues here. So I do think that's a good point to make on, on what his upcoming schedule looks like. And he, he is somebody that again, it's almost a reverse of Genti. What we talked about before, where I feel like anybody who took ETN with like the 90th pick in their draft is like, I hit a home run in terms of value. Like this was. I did everything right and now I get to reap those rewards. And I feel like those players, again, it's the opposite reason of Genti, but I feel like sometimes those players are hard to get people to, to move off of. But you're saying to actually move off of them. So you would imagine that everybody else would be very interested in paying up for him. I guess is the ultimate point I'm trying to lay.
- [26:04]
Andrew Erickson
I think too ETN does ETN's not as much of a flash of the pan where like a Quentin Johnson, for example, like he's someone that you can write about. Okay, he's obviously sell high. He's not going to keep this up. But no one's going to give you anything for Quint Johnson. But we know that. But Etienne has been a top five fantasy running back before in with the Jaguars offense with Trevor Lawrence. So there is a bit of okay, he has done this. He does have a strong body of work and so far he's been good this season. But to your point about the schedule, who did he face the first two weeks of the year, Panthers and Bengals to do the worst run defenses in the NFL. And the minute that he faces somebody better in Houston, we see his efficiency fall off. So yes, again you're I don't know exactly how these players are gonna be valued in your leagues, but for the upcoming stretch I very strongly believe that ETN's efficiency in production is going to fall off. So I would be putting them on the block and seeing what you can get for him.
- [26:55]
Ryan Warmley
Who's your other running back to sell?
- [26:57]
Andrew Erickson
My other running back to sell is the other player I mentioned, the veteran Tony Pollard. So Pollard for me he has been a workhorse for the Tennessee Titans through the first three weeks of the season. Now the Titans offense has been really underwhelming. They've been dealing with offensive line injuries. The receivers haven't been as great. Calvin Ridley, Ella Guyman or Cam Ward has struggled a bit. I think that a lot has to do with Callahan honestly being the head coach. I just don't think that he. I think he's really holding Cam Ward back, to be totally honest. But the thing I want to point out with Pollard is twofold where yes, he's receiving a lot of carries but he's getting no targets in this backfield because Cammore does not target running backs in the passing game. This was something that we looked at when scouting Cam Ward, that this is not something he likes to do. He wants to be a pocket passer, read the field, get the ball downfield to his receivers. He doesn't want to check the ball down to his running back. Through three weeks, no team has less targets to running backs than The Tennessee Titans, 32nd in the NFL and running back target share. So that's hurting Tony Parr in terms of what his upside can be. The second part is Tajie Spears is going to be coming back to this backfield. He's eligible to come off IR starting in Week five. So I'm trying to get ahead of this because last year under Callahan, we saw this backfill become more of a committee between Spears and Tony Pollard. Now, I can't guarantee that Spears is going to be healthy all year long. He's had a long injury history, but I'm just trying to look for ways, hey, could things go south for Pollard? Is he going to be able to keep up this type of volume just on a carry? And he, again, he's an RB2, like, that's what he's been. So if you can get a little bit more for him right now, again chasing some upside with some of these rookie players, like I mentioned, that have been underperforming for Pollard, who you made a good point about, you feel good about starting in your life, especially right now, because again, Spears still isn't back. So it's not like he's a total zero in week four. And we don't know how long it'll take Spears to actually get back up to speed. So Pollard still has some value for the next couple weeks, but I think I want to use that to try to ship him off because I think in the long term, I think that his production could fall off.
- [28:50]
Ryan Warmley
I think he's just very clearly a high floor, not high ceiling player in this, in this offensive situation. The floor could change even with, you know, when Spears is back. But there's. There's a lot of, like, data out there about that how high floor players don't actually really matter as much as you think they do. In fantasy, all that really matters is getting the ceiling guys and, you know, spike weeks and things like that. So, like, if you are 03, this is somebody that I think you could be talked into actually buying and not selling like you have them, but if you have, if you are two and one or three and, oh, I think this is a great sell because I think you want to be just aiming for the most upside you can find. And this is the time of year with no Spears where you would imagine the most upside for Pollard.
- [29:43]
Andrew Erickson
So.
- [29:44]
Ryan Warmley
And it's not playing out that way. Again, the floor has been totally fine. You know, he's averaging something around nine or 10 points a game, but the floor doesn't really matter all that much. And it could go away. There's no such thing as a real floor for any player because they can get hurt, but it could go away, you know, with Spears coming back, even. Even if Pollard stays healthy. So I think. I think this one is maybe a little more dependent on your situation at least. But. But if you have a winning record I totally on board with selling Pollard and would strongly encourage it. He's by the way, RB. I want to look RB25 in our consensus rest of season rankings. So the players ahead of him, Scatterboo and Trey Benson are the two names right ahead of him that you know, you can paint that upside picture.
- [30:27]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think those are sharp names to go after because I think there's definitely excitement about those players but there's definitely concern of is this just a flash in the pan like is Benson going to actually be the Bell Cow or are they going to use DeMarcado in some way? Whereas with Pollard maybe manager feels I know exactly what Pollard is. I know exactly what it is. I know what to expect from him. But you can take that risk. I think moving off him because I don't think if you trade away Pollard you're going to look up eight weeks from now and say man, I traded Tony Pollard away and he was a league winner. I don't think that's the scenario and I'm ready to be coltakes exposed on this in eight weeks when Tony Pollard is a league winner.
- [31:01]
Ryan Warmley
Let's do some buy seller hold trios. I've got three of them for you here at the running back position. I did these very late last night after I didn't watch the Ravens game live because I was out of the house and then I came back and watched the full recording very late and then I put these together so I can't speak to the headspace I was in if these are not good trios. I mainly just kept guys who were ranked close to each other in rest of season rankings without thinking too much about well who would actually be the obvious one here. But we'll see what you say. Buy, sell or hold Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard. Chase Brown.
- [31:35]
Andrew Erickson
Selling Chase Brown. So sold them last week and nothing is changing from that. About.
- [31:41]
Ryan Warmley
Well on that point because like selling do you think it's too hard to sell him right now because you know the vibes are just so bad like you're not going to get enough out of them. But you're saying that doesn't matter. You would just sell them.
- [31:50]
Andrew Erickson
The offensive line is. Is terrible and that's not going to change. They had. They got another guy that's injured so I don't know where you're supposed to. I don't know how it's going to improve again. It's not all Chase Brown's fault but I mean Maybe you wait for him to score a touchdown and then try to move him. But I just. Yeah, I feel so bad for Chase Brown, but I just don't think it's going to work. I would say Alvin Camara is probably a. He's probably the hold for me because he's going to have better weeks. I know this was a tougher matchup for him playing on the road against Seattle, so I think that he's probably a hold. And then I guess Chuba Hubbard's probably the buy for me Again, I don't. I don't particularly like buying any of these running backs. Maybe Camaro would be the better buy then, because he will have. At least he. I feel pretty confident about his volume. And Chuba Hubbard kind of split a little bit more with the work with Rico Dowdle, so that does concern me. So, you know what? We're not buying any of these guys, so I'm making my own rules.
- [32:41]
Ryan Warmley
So you're rejecting the premise of this segment.
- [32:45]
Andrew Erickson
I. I told you the running backs I wanted to buy, and they were not on this list.
- [32:49]
Ryan Warmley
Well, yeah, we already talked about it. That's why I didn't include them here. All right, so we're not buying Camara, Hubbard, or Chase Brown. Let's go to the next trio. Trey Benson. Cam Scatter. Boo.
- [33:01]
Andrew Erickson
JK Dobbins definitely would sell JK Dobbins. We talked about Harvey a little bit earlier. It's just not a matter of if. It's just a matter of when the wheels fall off, the tires fall off of J.K. dobbins. He's been really good to start the year, which is what we expected, kind of in a similar way that we talked about with Tony Pollard. Beginning of the season, this was when Dobbins was gonna be most productive. But there has to be an opportunity. Get off the. Get off the bus, get off the train, because eventually we're going to see these other running backs working a little bit more or if Dobbins suffers an injury. So he would definitely be the sell for me. I think Scatter. I think Scatterbo would probably be trying to think the hold or the buy. I think. I think you could probably buy Trey Benson maybe a little bit cheaper. Who do you think is more expensive, Benson or Scatterbo?
- [33:45]
Ryan Warmley
I see. I think Benson will be more expensive because it's. You know, we had this clear Runway of James Connor out for the season, and he's a player that some people like, did really like, you know, going into his rookie season and thinking that he could have overtaken James Conner in the second half of last year. It didn't happen. But now he has this opportunity and I think it's a better offense than the Giants offense will be throughout the course of the season. I. I think they are back to back in the rest of season consensus rankings and Scatteroo is one spot higher. I don't think that's how it would actually be. Like, I see Benson. I would much rather have him than Scaboo, and I assume he would be more expensive. Every. Every league's different, right? It's all contextual, but I would imagine Benson's kind of the clearer player that you'd want to have right now.
- [34:29]
Andrew Erickson
I think I agree with you and I think that even if he is more expensive, I think I would still try to buy Trey Betsy to your point. Better offensive ecosystem where he could really be a league winner if he takes on this James Conner role. We've seen the Cardinals be one of the better running offenses in the NFL. Again, did not work out last week against a tougher 49ers defense. Obviously, Connor got hurt last week, but I liked Benson a ton. Like, he was my RB one in that class from last year. I know that he did not do that much as a rookie, but I believe in his upside. And I mean, if you could move Scatterboo in a piece to get Benson, I don't think that that's like, automatically rejected. I think that a manager will look at that being. Man, Scatter looks so good on Sunday Night Football. He's. He's. He's the favorite. He's everyone's favorite player on the Giants. We all love this guy. My wife is watching the game. She thinks I want to cam Scatter Boo jersey. Like, let's go. Like, let's sign up for this. This is gonna be so much fun. So, yes, I will hold Scatter Boo, but I want to buy Trey Benson and then sell the other running back that we mentioned earlier. I don't remember. Yes. Dobbins.
- [35:27]
Ryan Warmley
All right, last one. Buy. Seller. Hold. Jakori Crosby. Merit Quinshon, Judkins. David Montgomery.
- [35:33]
Andrew Erickson
I want to sell David Montgomery. I just think that this is one of the best performances we're going to get from him all season. It's a primetime game. Everybody's watching. Ripped off the big runs, but his snapshare is still significantly less than Jameer Gibbs and significantly less than it was last season. So he's taken a bigger step back than he was last year. So I think that this is a good opportunity to sell high on a player like Dave Montgomery. Judge Gins is probably the hold for me. I don't know what's going to happen with the suspension thing so I think that is always going to be in the back of managers minds when you're trying to make trades for him where I don't think you're ever going to get fair market price for him just because there's always that risk that he doesn't serving a suspension at some point down the line. I think if you have him, I think you just hold him and then the other running back, Jacob Crosky Merritt I get that Chris Rodriguez kind of started this game, but I still think Cross Gamer just looks so good and I know that McNichols ended up having the big rushing touchdown. It's still not super clear like how the backfield is kind of what order it's in. But I I think that in the long term cross key Merritt, when we're talking about this backfield on a month from now, I think that he's going to be the clear guy, the clear RB one in this backfield. So cross merit as people are kind of panicking I think because of Rodriguez and what he was doing in the first in the beginning of that game. I I think that he's probably the buy because I think that he's going to be you can get him for probably next to nothing.
- [36:50]
Ryan Warmley
Don't forget about our weekly trade live stream on our YouTube channel where you can come and ask your specific Fantasy Trade questions. We'll be with you every Wednesday at 3pm Eastern. For those listening on the podcast, just go to YouTube.com fantasypros subscribe and click the bell to be notified of all of our weekly live streams. I will go ahead and wrap things up there again. Part two come in either on YouTube if you're watching there, or audio wherever you listen to your podcast. We'll be diving into wide receivers and a little bit of talk on the quarterbacks and tight ends as well. For Erickson, I'm Ron Warmley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [38:03]
Andrew Erickson
In the.
- [38:03]
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- [39:59]
Ryan Warmley
This is an I Heart podcast.