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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Best Bets for NFL Week 17 | Top Picks, Predictions & Props (Ep. 1920)
00:35:55
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- [00:00]
Seth Wilcox
This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.
- [00:04]
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- [00:35]
Seth Wilcox
All right, and welcome in to BP NFL. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and I hope everyone had a very merry Christmas. And because we're still in the holiday spirit, we're combining both our player props episode with our best bets for week 17. That's right. We're going to give you our top five plays for the ATS totals and player props markets. And to help me do it is our resident holiday cheer meister. He's Andrew Erickson. Andrew, how was the family's Christmas? And are you expected to get as much inclement weather over the next 24 hours as we are here in Pennsylvania?
- [01:08]
Andrew Erickson
I don't think so. I think we are getting some snow again here on Saturday as the weekend kind of rolls in, but not too, too much. But who knows? It's winter, it's New England, you never know. I know it's really, really cold, which is usually kind of like the precursor to you're about to get bombarded with like a foot of snow. So hey, I got shovels, I got time, so we'll make it happen. We got football on basically every single day. You look up and this is where football on. So great. Time to be alive again. Christmas, ton of fun. And I was telling you before we started recording here, I don't know why I just don't continue to bet blindly bet. The underdogs divisional on Thursdays. I talk about it on every single primer I write and then I don't even follow through sometimes. I did on the Chiefs. I like them with the 13 and a half because I just thought, hey, this is the biggest line. But when I look up, okay, commander's covered check. I mean, Vikings winning outright was just pretty insane. Just the way that game played out, how great their defense was. Lions couldn't do anything offensively. Neither could the Vikings offense. But it didn't matter because how good their defense was playing. And then Vikings beat the Lions twice this year, both as like monster underdogs. Just, you gotta. I just wish there was more Thursday football, man, because I just keep betting on these underdogs, especially individual games.
- [02:25]
Seth Wilcox
Well, you would be more rich than I think Netflix would be if that's the case, because I don't know if that was the best investment after seeing the product out on the field. But that's what you get when you, you know, buying games for Week 17, the NFL season. You never know what you're going to get. And it kind of is true for the gambling streets, right? I mean, we have to constantly keep our head on a swivel this time of year. We just had news sometime over the holiday break where Brock Bowers now and I are done for the rest of the season. So this is a type of shifting shaking that can really transpire and move the lines, right? We've seen a lot of line movement already this week and I'm sure we're going to continue to see it throughout the weekend as well. As noted in today's program, we will be counting down our top bets for the weekend from 10 down to 1. And if you yourself aren't being a Grinch this holiday season, please do a quick favor. Give this video a thumbs up. Also, make sure you're subscribing to the channel if you're new. And Ericsson, before we dive in, have a How was the week 16 betting card from a game bets and player prop perspective and how are the vibes as we turn the page here?
- [03:22]
Andrew Erickson
The vibes were immaculate last week 5 and oh, a perfect week. I don't know how many five and zero weeks I've had. It's not that many. I'm sure the YouTube commenters can let me know that it's probably never happened so far. But yeah, it was really, really strong week. So looking to finish the season strong. I am well above.500 here on the Best Bet Show. Now that's mostly been picks against the spread and the totals. My player props have not been as good on the prop show. Actually wasn't even on the prop show last week. So I actually probably did most people a solid by not being on the prop show. Although I did a social short, went 3 0, chased five star bets on the prop bet cheat sheet and they came through. So I got a couple more couple more of those player props here for us today. So feeling good heading into week 17 because week 18 is going to be so much chaos with team motivations. There's a chance that all of the playoff teams are basically set and it's just seatings that are up for grabs and some teams might think we could care less where we're seated. We just want a bye week. So in the NFL's effort to remove teams from resting their players, they've just created a week 18 where every team rests their players because only one team, the number one seed, actually gets a bye week where everyone else like, well, we'll just take our bye week anyway. So.
- [04:37]
Seth Wilcox
And it's so interesting too, because the NFL truly wants them to stop that because it's all divisional games in week 18, right? Like, it's like, hey, you don't have time to rest on your laurels here and go into the playoffs coasting. And, you know, we'll see how that affects the betting markets next week. But this really is the last week of full fun opportunity to get invested with all the teams that will have their starters up and a full slate for Sunday, even though it's a little bit truncated just because we have some Saturday games, also some Thursday games that just went off as well. So one of the last times I really, on week 18, like, I start kind of really looking at the futures market for what I can get invested with for the playoffs, maybe an award. Last call for those as well. So, Erickson, let's go ahead and dive right into the best bets for week 17 and keep it here. And now what do you have for us with your fifth best bet?
- [05:24]
Andrew Erickson
I am going with the Browns to cover the spread here, plus three and a half. Hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, who may or may not be really playing for anything in this particular game. The Ravens lose against the Green Bay packers on Saturday. Steelers basically lock everything up in terms of winning the AFC North. Now where they seed is still kind of to be determined, but they're not going to be the number one seed. So it's one of these scenarios where, hey, we just want to make sure we get our guys that are our most important starters to the finish line. So again, it still depends on if the Ravens lose again. Lamar is not going to play. So it's potential that they lose that game against Green Bay on the road. But besides that, even if the Steelers are playing full force, we want to win this game. You know, Mike Tomlin seems like that kind of coach where week 17 we're still going to be locked in week 18, maybe we'll take off. I just like get the Browns here at home. Like they've been one of the best teams in terms of against the spread at home. They are four and one against spread as home underdogs this season. And when you just look at who historically has been one of the best home teams against the spread. And it's the Cleveland Browns, it's the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Chicago Bears. What are those things all, what are those teams all have in common? It's just like bad weather, cold environments and usually strong defenses. We have Miles Garrett who is chasing the sack record and I've also heard kind of rumors where what kind of poetic justice would it be if Mason Rudolph is the quarterback that Myles Garrett sacks to break the all time sack record would just be. I just, I mean you can't write a better Hollywood picture than that, right? So I think the Browns are still going to continue to be motivated here again. Shadur Sanders, he wants to play well because he wants to try to be the Browns quarterback next season. So yeah, I like the Browns here covering the spread. Maybe the Stewards just don't go all out, especially if the Ravens losing. What's interesting about this line too and depending on when you're listening to this, you can actually parlay the packers money line with the Browns to cover the spread and at plus three and a half get close to two to one odds. And I do think there's a little bit of correlation there because if Green Bay does win, maybe Pittsburgh isn't as motivated to win this game, especially by a field goal or more than a field goal. So give me the Browns plus three and a half at home. The Browns have been one of my more profitable teams this year betting on and it's usually when they're home underdogs catching more than a field goal.
- [07:40]
Seth Wilcox
I'm with you. I've bet a lot of Browns games this season. They finally let me down a few weeks ago with Jerry Judy dropping would have cleared his reception total. And in the same game I also had them over their team total as well and that did not come through. But I like the correlation here that you're putting out this play, Erickson, because I originally when the week open I said oh, maybe I will back the Steelers because I don't think three and a half points is enough. But then I get a call from my younger brother this morning, it's like hey, you know, I can't wait to watch the Steelers game with you on Sunday. Gonna be in in town to see the family. So I was like, well you know, we might not get the full allotment of players. And he's hoping for Will Howard. He's a big Will Howard guy. So he's hoping to see Will Howard out there. Maybe he's. If it is the the Steelers resting some starters and kind of to that point like right now you have the Jaguars who are already locked in likely to that three seed and whether it's them or the Texans, like the Steelers would need that team to lose out basically whoever's coming out of the AFC south to hop them for that three seed. So like if the Ravens lose I don't think they do have a lot to play for and like we're already in this reality Erickson which feels like a bad dream where our star wide receiver thrown out for the last two regular season games because he was punching a fan. Our number one best player, one of the best in franchise history I'd say in T.J. watt out right now because he's got poked in a lung with a needle. So like we're already kind of like sitting in this time where the Steelers like yes we're going to the playoffs hopefully and all vibes are looking high but it's also a little shaky at the same time so I don't mind fading them in this spot with with you with the Browns plus three and a half with my first bet I'm going to go with an alt play. I'm going to go Rams Alt -6 and a half -156 vs the Falcons this is the Monday Night Football game folks and I really just want to get back invested with a team that has really been the NFL's best team against the spread this season 114 that includes a 30 ATS record after a loss 2 and 1 on a rest advantage to the number 8 and 2 to the number in non divisional games. And I think that rest advantage is really going to be key for a Rams team that is led by a 37 year old Matthew Stafford. And it also gives this defensive coordinator Chris Shola some ample time to prepare for this Falcons offense that has been playing better than I think anyone's been giving them credit for lately. But I still think it's somewhat predictable from the Falcons offensive standpoint where it's Kirk Cousins. It's a ton of under center work. It's really relying heavily on Bijan Kyle Pitts trying to force feed the ball to Drake London if he's going to be up for this one as well which we are expecting him to play again after playing last week. And I also think the Rams like they've been really running the ball a lot. Blake Corum seen a ton of action lately. They've been averaging 34.7 rushing attempts per game over the last three matchups they're going to try to control the time possession in this game, I believe. I think the Falcons defense, which is allowing the eighth most yards per game on the ground, could be a little susceptible there to Corum to Kyron Williams. And if that doesn't work, I think they can still air it out right. Like this secondary has been a top 10 matchup for opposing wide receivers over the past month. So expecting Puka to go buck wild, Kirk Cousins to choke in prime time once again, and the Rams to win by at least a touchdown on this alt play.
- [10:44]
Andrew Erickson
Andrew Erickson I like this one. I am very usually on the Rams when they're on the road as favorites. They're definitely one of the better teams against the spread where they go on the road. Now the one thing I will say, just as a caveat and going back to motivations, what are these teams playing for? The Rams are in kind of a weird situation where they are atop the NFC standings and they are playing this is the Monday night game, so they're the last team to play. Depending on how things shake out, they also may not be not necessarily playing for nothing. But we know that Sean McVay values health more than anything else. Like he doesn't play anyone else in the preseason. So that's something to kind of monitor just in terms of, you know, could he pull a Houdini and just kind of take Matthew Stafford out? Right. And because he wants to protect his quarterback going into the postseason. So maybe this one, I would just say maybe you could wait on it a little bit because I don't think that we're going to get oh well, got to take all this money on the Falcons right now. Sure. So that's something I would just add a caveat again. There's a lot of layers to this week heading into next week, especially with just one team having that bye week. So that's something I would keep on. And that wasn't even something I was thinking about. We talked about it on the Fantasy Pro show with some of the Rams players. So that's something to just monitor.
- [11:56]
Seth Wilcox
Yeah, I agree with you there. I think it's, it's really going to be up for grabs though, because the Niners right now tied with the same record, the Seahawks one game above them. So I think it is a little bit more of a cluster. And at the same time, like, do you really think Sean McVeigh would rest Stafford in the midst of an MVP season? Right. Or at least pull. I mean, maybe it's a pull them early type of situation. Maybe they get up on the Falcons and they backdoor them, right? They get in through that back door. That's what I would be afraid of because that has happened to me more than once this season. So hopefully we can just, you know, tie that back door shut, make sure it's, you know, grab the string, tie it to, to the, the back door, whatever you got to do, make sure that thing isn't opening in, in that win. So Andrew, let's go to your second play this week. It is your fourth best bet of the week and it's coming with another team in this very division.
- [12:42]
Andrew Erickson
Yes, another team in the NFC west playing on the road here. Actually going to the east coast. Seattle Seahawks against the Carolina Panthers. Seth betting on the Panthers all of last year, all of this year. And I think I finally cracked the code. It was one of my best bets last week, not for them just to cover, but to beat the Buccaneers outright. And it's because they were coming off a loss. The Panthers have been undefeated against the spread after losing a game. However, they're 2 and 5 against the spread after a win this season. So you gotta fade them after they win games, but then you smash them after they. And we think about the Panthers, right? What does this game mean to them? Really nothing because all they're trying to do is get to week 18 so they can face the Buccaneers again, beat the Bucks and win the NFC South. So I think that this game really is a low spot here for the Carolina Panthers. Again, one of the most volatile teams. But the pattern is and the trend is you bet against them after they are coming off a win. When people have confidence in the Panthers, then they immediately lose all that confidence because as a Panthers better I know how hard it has been able to ride this team on a week to week basis. But I think I cracked the code. And the other part of this handicap here is I just love Seattle on the road. This team is built to just be a dominant team on the road. 12, 2 straight up on the road since the start of 2024, 4, 3, 1 against the spread. And they've actually been historically great on the east coast. 5 and O straight up 4 and 1 against the spread. So going to be fading my Carolina Panthers until next week, which is totally fine. I'm cool with that because I just love the Seattle Seahawks coming off extra rest after playing on that Thursday night game, that crazy Thursday night game against the Los Angeles Rams. So give me the Seahawks Lane 7.
- [14:22]
Seth Wilcox
Yeah. The only time the Seahawks didn't cover A line this big or bigger on the road in the eastern time zone has been against the Tennessee Titans where they kind of again, same thing left the back door open and Tennessee came more. They scored a bunch of points late in that game and I was on the Seahawks that day. I think mine's 13 and a half is what I had them at. So I was very disappointed. But this is a good spot I think to get back invested with them. They have that first round buy within sight. It's within their reach. They need to stay on the gas and they can't lift off. And that's actually kind of where I'm going with my next play here. I'm going with a totals teaser. Minus 111. It's a two legger. Seattle Seahawks versus the Panthers. I'm on the alt over 36 and a half points, that's minus 270. And then the New York Giants versus the Raiders under 48 and a half points, minus two hundred and sixty again. Together it's going to be minus one hundred and eleven. And really like the first part of this is that first leg where Seattle, I think they're going to be roaring once again on the east coast like you said and they have ample rest. Sam Darnold got to be feeling himself after maybe arguably the biggest win of his career on Thursday Night Football against the Rams. Their games have hit this alt Line in 11 of 15 games this season, six of seven road games as well. The Panthers have hit this total in 10 of 15 games and are also feeling better about themselves offensively as well after beating the Bucks. Beating the Rams. Like take out those Saints games recently and the Panthers look like, you know, legit super bowl contenders. Obviously we have to consider those but at the same time, like, you know, keep in mind this is a team that significantly better at home are the Panthers. They're five and two straight up. They've been dogs in all five of those wins they have got. And in leg two, like this is the game that is so important for Fernando Mendoza's future, right between the Giants and between the Raiders, this game will likely decide the number one overall pick. So I think both organizations are going to do a lot of funky things. Hey, let's send out the young guys, see what they can do here. And the Giants offense, they've really started to slow down in December with their line just continuing to break down. Of course more weeks without Cam Scatter Boo as well starting to wear on them. The Raiders, they had some big plays last week with Ashton Genti I know a lot of people in fantasy were bummed because they finally sat him in what was a terrible matchup and he went off. But they Only still scored 21 points against the Texans. So like that's the most they've scored in the last seven games. The the Giants run the ball at the eighth highest clip in the NFL. The Raiders are coming off a game where they were in it and they still passed under 50% of the time. So I think that should help run out the clock and keep this total that is hit in 11 Raiders games, nine Giants games a season at 71.4% clip. So again I'm going with a totals teaser there. Leg 1 We're going to take the Seattle Seahawks and the Carolina Panthers over 36 and a half and the Giants and Raiders under 48 and a half points and Erickson. That is where I'm going with my second bet.
- [17:00]
Andrew Erickson
I like the overplay with the Seahawks and Panthers that is also on my betting radar. Just the general over in that game. Carolina is home to a ton of overs. I'm looking at 11 of their last 14 home games have actually gone over the points total. Now I don't know exactly how that correlates with them coming off wins and coming off losses because obviously their offense plays significantly better usually after they're coming off a loss and Seattle get boat raced a little bit by the Rams offense but that is the Rams offense. So it's always tough. But moving it down to 36 and a half points is good. And you're a braver man than me for betting on Giant Raiders. I just four range outcome game. Anything could happen in this game. Right? We really don't. Okay. Because we don't know what teams are, what are they playing for? Are they trying to win, are they trying to lose? What are the teams trying to do, who's going to be out there. It'll be fun to watch, I would say. All I know is like for me it wasn't. I talked about this with Joe on the Look Ahead lion show. Not betting this game. I would bet Ashton Genti's overs. Like that's all I know. I know the Giants run defense sucks. Yeah. He's going to be a monster and I need him so badly in fantasy because I advanced with him despite him being on my bench. Didn't, didn't even feel bad about him. Like no, I wasn't going to start him. No. But he's in my lineup this week in the championship and I need to have a big game so Touchdowns for Genti, rushing yards for Genti against the Giants. Yes, please.
- [18:18]
Seth Wilcox
I need the Giants to come through. I need them to save Fernando Mendoza's career so someone like the Rams or a better organization can trade up and go get him. I need you. I need you Giants. Let's do this. If you're looking to up your game in sports betting, go ahead and join our exclusive sports betting discord community@bettingpros.com chat. Not only can you connect with some expert handicappers who provide free picks for the NBA, NFL, mlb, NHL, College football player, Pops, Live Betting and so much more, but now you can also participate in our weekly community Picks Catch. Cast your votes, see how your picks stack up against the experts like Andrew Ericson and track your success today.
- [18:56]
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- [18:57]
Andrew Erickson
All.
- [18:58]
Coca Cola Advertisement Voice
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- [19:43]
Seth Wilcox
Andrew, let's go ahead to the next best bets up for us number three. What do you have for us?
- [19:47]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, we're moving into the player props. I'm going to Tennessee hosting the New Orleans Saints this week. Tony Pollard, over 59 and a half rushing yards. Guy's been on an absolute heater after sucking house basically for the first 12 weeks of the NFL season. He has over 60 rushing yards in four straight games. As the Titans office has kind of come alive in the last month or so they've been playing much better, especially at home. And Tony Pollard, he's got incentives in his contract to hit big numbers to finish out the season. He is 949 rushing yards currently. So 51 yards away from a thousand. 151 yards away from a quarter of a million dollars bonus in his contract along with two more rushing touchdowns which give him another quarter of a million dollars. So I think Tony Pollard's going to motivated. I know this is a lost season for the Tennessee Titans. Again you're not really able to fully evaluate Cam Ward in this type of environment. Although I think that he has shown Signs of, hey, I can be a franchise quarterback. Just get me the right coach, get me some better surroundings. And I think that Pollard's going to continue to be relied on here. He's averaging over 20 touches per game over the last three weeks. And something to point out about the Saints defense, Brian Brzee, their defensive tackle who actually leads the team in run stops, not going to play this week. So I think that's a big loss for their defensive interior. I'm talking about this on a lot of different shows this week where when you lose a linchpin player in the middle of your defense, it puts other players in bad positions to then have to pick up the slack. And sometimes they're not up for that opportunity. Remember the vaulted Browns run defense, Malik Collins goes down, they can't stop the run.
- [21:26]
Seth Wilcox
Sure.
- [21:27]
Andrew Erickson
My Patriots, they lose Milton Williams lose Robert Spillane, all of a sudden they can't stop anybody on the ground. So I think that this could be a potential floodgates opening against the run for the Tennessee Titans without one of their defensive tackles for New Orleans. I like them, they're at home. I think that they can even cover here too. But I think my best bet for this game was giving Tony Paul, especially with money moving closer to Tennessee again open much. I think it was like Saints like four Saints minus four, Saints minus four and a half. Now it's down to Titans plus two and a half. Don't like that as much in a field goal game. Rather bet the props. So give me Tony Pollard over 59 and a half rushing yards.
- [22:01]
Seth Wilcox
If you would have told me the way Tony Pollard started the season that he had a chance to get a thousand, let alone 1100 rushing yards, I would say what reality are you in? Especially when Taj Speers came back, they really started shifting back towards the committee. But now Paul are just getting so many of the touches and he's been great for them down the stretch. So I don't see any reason for him to take his foot off the gas. And yeah, really excited to see this one in kind of a battle. Potential future franchise quarterbacks Tyler Schuck looking out. They're pretty nice for the Saints as well. For me though, Andrew Erickson, I'm going to go with a player prop as well. For this third pick I'm going Parker Washington over his reception total. Right now we are just seeing lines released for Parker Washington and a couple of different books. No line at a few different ones. So I'm going to wait out and see if I can find a two and a half and then pay that juice, whatever that is. If it's minus 140, I'm willing to pay it. Or I'll take the three and a half that I'm seeing at plus money from our friends at Hard Rock bet right now. But Trevor Lawrence, he is balling out and and Parker Washington has been a legit weapon for him when he's been healthy. He's had 13 targets, nine receptions in the past two games since being healthy. He has cleared two and a half receptions in five of seven games since Travis Hunter went down and whether it was a big play to DeMarcus Robinson on Monday Night Football. Cooper cup catching five passes this past week the slot Wide receivers have been doing so much damage against the Colts lately that I think they're just going to get roasted up here by Parker Washington, who he's not only playing the slot but in those three wide receiver sets he's coming into the middle of the field. And the Colts secondary they have allowed tied for the fourth most wide receiver receptions over the past month, 13 per game, the second most receiving yards in that span as well. T Law, he's thrown an average up 34 times the past two weeks and I see no reason that they're going to stop. The Texans are only one game behind them for the divisional lead, so I think it's full go on the Jacksonville Jaguars and how I want to get invested against the Colts is with Parker Washington manning that slot and just looking good out there for a former Penn State Nittany Lion.
- [23:54]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, great after the catch, making a lot of explosive plays. I think that this will probably help you too if we get Saskara back for the Indianapolis Colts. I don't know if it's been confirmed whether he's coming back or not this particular week. I don't know if it makes sense for him to come back. But the Colts traded for him so they're like no, you got to play because we traded all these picks for you. Yeah, right. Or no, we don't want you to get hurt again because we trade all these picks for you. So again, you know which side of the coin are you going to land when it comes to how the Colts should be deploying their prize asset of SAS Garter. But if he is playing more like he's locking up guys like Jacobe Myers, Brian Thomas Jr. On the outside. So yeah, that would let Parker Washington and Brenton Strange, he's another guy I like a lot this week for props touchdowns. He should eat. We saw what George Kittle did to the Colts and they, I mean he, that was one of my favorite props from last week and there wasn't even sweat, man. Like the game just started. George Kittle just freaking destroys his player, his receiving arts prop in the first half. I mean Brock Purdy was on fire in the first half. So yeah, I think the, the T law train continues to roll through Indianapolis.
- [24:55]
Seth Wilcox
This week and you actually think that may force the Colts to also put up some points and start throwing the ball late in this game. Where are you going for your second best bet of the week staying in this particular matchup?
- [25:06]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I mean our transitions have been just spot on here, Seth, with us going from game by game, connecting all the dots here. So I like Alec Pierce to go over his receiving yards prop over at 39 1/2 yards. The Colts, I don't think they're technically eliminated from the playoffs, but they're pretty much eliminated from the playoffs. I think that that's pretty clear just based on how everything's. It would take very, very weird outcomes for them to make a run here. But Alec Pierce, I just think that this number is way too low. I get that it is Philip Rivers that is the quarterback, but what we saw from him against the 49ers, I think that this guy can throw for 200 yards. Right? I didn't think that. Yes, the deep ball is not there. Sure, it's really more of like a duck type of pass, but I think that he's still shown that he's been good enough and he can read the defense to understand where to get the ball to. And Alec Pierce has just been a monster all year long. He has 40 plus receiving yards in all but three games, 60 or more. And all but four games played this season. That's 78%. And when you look at who is the leading receiver for the Colts this season, it's not Michael Pittman. It's alec Pierce. He's 129 yards away from a thousand yards. He's going to be a free agent at the end of the year. He wants to get to this number because when I'm hitting free agency and I'm talking to all these teams. Yeah, well, I had a thousand yards last year. Like that. No, he doesn't say I had 950. No. Like I had 1,000 yards last year. So what's old man Rivers going to do? He's going to feed his guy, he's going to get him going so he gets paid. Because what else is Philip Rivers playing for at this Point, right. He's playing to have some fun. So I think that Alec Pierce is going to go over this number again. 4 for 86 last week against the 49ers on just five targets. He has a long air yards per target at 18.1. So he does feel a little bit boomer busty. But I mean he's shown all year with whoever the quarterback has been for the Indianapolis Colts that he can get it done. He can generate explosive plays. And what do we know about the Jaguars defense? Pass funnel teams cannot run the football against the Jaguars defense playing at an elite level. I know they'll try to get Jonathan Taylor going, but they couldn't get him going that much when they first played Jacksonville. They had to throw it a ton. We saw yardage for those types of players. He hit this the last time they played the Jacksonville Jaguars and he got hurt at the end of that game. So give me the over Alec Pierce, 39 and a half receiving yards.
- [27:22]
Seth Wilcox
Let me tell you what if George Pickens resigns with the Dallas Cowboys and Mike Evans either retires or resigns with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You have two guys in Wanda Robinson and Alec Pierce who are going to be the bell of the ball in NFL free agency and this offseason. I think it potentially starts here because he has been arguably Philip Rivers favorite target since going under center for the Colts. So we'll see what happens out there. One of my favorite storylines has been seeing Uncle Phil back under center there in Lucas Oil. So hopefully we continue to see good things in terms of Alec Pierce. For my next bet, I'm going Ramon Dre Stevenson, anytime touchdown minus 130. And this is simple for me. This is really, really simple of a handicap. We have to go back to the well on running backs to score against the jets last week no running back scored against them. That was the first game in the jets last five games where a running back did not score an anytime touchdown against them. And they had 14 touchdowns in the previous four games against them. And I would even say like Taysom Hill at least threw a pass right and he's kind of the running back slash tight end there. So you know, it doesn't count as anytime touchdown. But still in that realm. And like I think the Pats who are nearly two touchdown favorites in this game, they're going to impose their will. They're going to make the jets look as bad as these other good teams have like the Jaguars recently. And I think Ramon Dre Stevenson with Trayvon Henderson likely being out this week is going to fall into the end zone once again. So simple one for me Mondre for your Pats into the end zone.
- [28:44]
Andrew Erickson
He's going to score. It's probably a better bet than laying the points with the Patriots. I agree man. Yeah, we just saw three third string quarterbacks all cover the spread as home underdogs. So I know it seems so simple. You got to take the paths, got to lay the points and that's how I felt early in the week. And maybe it's just because the jets motivation is less than those other teams where the jets actually have incentive to lose. Right. They really have nothing to play for. That's why they're playing Brady Cook. Even though it seems like to Rod Taylor is actually healthy enough to play, they're electing to play Brady Cook anyway. So are we gonna get 4 for 4 covering the spread as third string quarterbacks? I don't know. So I think that Ramondre Stevenson is a good way to approach. Especially with Henderson coming out the concussion. We don't know if he's gonna play still. So maybe two can if he and they'll probably keep it at do you think the odds and move at all if Henderson is still in maybe get a better value or they'll just be like nah, we're going to keep it at minus 130 just in case.
- [29:41]
Seth Wilcox
I would say this is only released on a couple of books right now. I think a lot of books are waiting to see if Henderson will be out. So I don't mind going to take this now as soon as you're listening to this. But if that's the case, like, like just go out there and kind of scour the books. Go to the betting pros.com website, download the app and look at the odds boards for Ramon Dre's touchdown odds and just kind of see what they're going out there. But I think it does potentially move if Henderson's out there because only a few books are brave enough to even put it out there right now. But before we have that confirmation, love those books.
- [30:13]
Andrew Erickson
The brave ones.
- [30:14]
Seth Wilcox
Yes, yes they are. They are books of the people. And that includes our friends over at Hard Rock Bet which are powering this week's Hard Rock Best bets of the week. And Andrew Erickson, where is your top play for week number 17?
- [30:29]
Andrew Erickson
Well as the undertaker naturally this is an under play going Michael Wilson, under four and a half receptions as my Hard Roc best bet of the week. Simply put, Michael Wilson just doesn't see targets when Marvin Harrison Jr. Is healthy and in the lineup last week, Marvin Harrison Jr. Came back after missing a couple weeks. Michael Wilson, four targets. He had two catches for 52 yards and a touchdown. But every single game this year where Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. Have played together, Michael Wilson has gone over four and a half receptions zero times.
- [31:03]
Seth Wilcox
Wow.
- [31:03]
Andrew Erickson
Zero, wow. I understand why the line is where it is because of the absolute monster games Michael Wilson has had while Marvin Harrison Jr. Has been sidelined. Trust me, I know picked up Michael Wilson. Fancy playing him every single week. But yeah, if you just look at his game, if you just look at his game log, it's really easy to see the games where Marvin Harrison Jr. Comes back in place and the ones where he's not playing because the numbers are just so stark. So I'm taking the under at four and a half receptions for Michael Wilson, like I said, just doesn't hit this number when Marv is healthy. Look, I'm not saying that Marv is so much better and he should be seeing all these targets, but he's usually the first read among wide receivers which Kobe Brissette as a quarterback, when he's not playing, it's Michael Wilson, but when he's back, and I expect him actually play more snaps than he did last week. The thing too, with the last two games that they've played together, Marvin Harrison Jr. Has been on snap counts in both those games. One where he was coming back from an injury and then another game was when he actually got re injured again. And then you saw Michael Wilson get a bunch of targets after Marvin Harrison Jr. Left that game. So I also don't love the matchup necessarily. Yes, it's the Bengals, so it's a game where there's a lot of scoring. But how do you attack the Bengals is with running backs and tight ends. So Trey McBride, you can't, you can't list his receptions, yardage, touchdown props low enough for me this week because he's going to have like an absolute bonkers game. The Bengals have allowed the third fewest receptions to wide receivers this season. Like they just don't give up a lot of production, specifically completions to wide receivers. And also the forecast in this game, it's gonna be a little bit rain this week.
- [32:33]
Seth Wilcox
A little bit of rain, a little.
- [32:34]
Andrew Erickson
Bit of wind, not gonna be cold, it's gonna be like 60 degrees. Which is kind of bizarre, I guess for a, for a late December game in, in Cincinnati. But slick ball maybe. Michael Wilson doesn't catch all of his targets. He's not as efficient as he was last week getting 52 yards on just two catches. So sure, I'm taking the under four and a half. And you get a plus money too. Like that's the thing too. It's plus money that you're getting for a guy that's never hit this when Marvin Harrison Jr. Has been healthy and active. That's why it's my Hard Rock best bet, baby.
- [33:00]
Seth Wilcox
Hey, I love it. And because specifically DJ Turner has been better and I'm not sure if he will be. He's not the shadow type of cornerback. He's going to bounce a lot. But back between Marv and Michael Wilson most likely. And that's the great thing about the betting pros, Prop Bet Analyzer and Ericsson is you can go in there and actually filter with players and without players. So you can easily it probably took you two clicks go into Michael Wilson's Prop Bet Analyzer page. You click without player or with player and in this case, Marvin Harrison Jr. And you saw red, red, red across the board. So yes, I'm there with you. And once again we're staying in the same game here because my Hard Rock best bet of the week is chase Brown over 82 and a half rushing plus receiving yards. This is going off at minus 115. This Cardinals defense, it is getting hanged up as the season progresses. Their linebacking core right now, it is a legit liability. They have allowed the most rushing yards to opposing running backs over the past month, 152.3 per game. The six most receiving yards to them as well in that span, over 50. And while Brown is playing less snaps, he's been way more efficient with P. Ryan mixing in. He's hit this BP projected line of 82 and a half of eight out of nine games in the last two months and also averaging 102.3 yards per game in that span. So with him also seeing 5.5 targets per game with Joe Burr back under center, I think this is a very safe receiving floor. And then you get the Cardinals where he's probably going to get a good yards per carry clip too. I'm all in on Chase Brown this week. I'm aboard the train and it was one that I thought I was going to have to get off early in the season because I was so high on him for fantasy. I had a couple futures tied up in him as well. But all good things come to those who wait. Andrew Erickson yeah, Chase Brown, just one.
- [34:43]
Andrew Erickson
Of the other players that just absolutely dead weight on your fantasy roster. Start the year very similar to Tony Pollard where you just couldn't use this guy at all and you're just ending the year on absolute heater. So I got Chase Brown in my remaining fantasy league championship this week.
- [34:57]
Seth Wilcox
Let's go.
- [34:58]
Andrew Erickson
Slotted in as RB1. I traded for him right before the trade deadline because I saw this schedule rest of season, I was like, I gotta get Chase Brown on my season. So yes, also high and Chase Brown during draft season, miserable to start the year, but hoping he can finish on a high note. So yeah, I'm hand holding with you, man. Let's go.
- [35:13]
Seth Wilcox
Let's go. And if you want to know where I bet on sports during the holiday season, it is only on Hard Rock Bet. Not just because it's our presenting sponsor, but also because they make it so super simple. Easy to bet both pregame and live with just a few simple taps. I open up the app, I find a bet I like and then bam, my bets place just in time for me. Back to wrapping Christmas presents, which I was up pretty late on Festivus wrapping those presents because my fiance, her birthday is on Christmas Eve. So how to get all that done? Hard Rock Bet, though, made sure I was ready for those bowl games happening and I could get back to that. So sign up today, bet $5 on any single game and if it wins, you're also going to score yourself $150 in bonus bets, a winning bet plus $150 in extra bonus bets. Now that's what I call spreading holiday magic, folks. Plus Hard Rock that also is filling your stockings. Even post Christmas with new promos daily. So whenever you're listening, just fire up the app and check out what they've got going on any day of the week. Don't download the Hard Rock Bet app now and make your first deposit. All right, folks, well that is going to do it for us today. Don't forget that you can also check out every single week Joe Madden, our friend who is hosting a short betting live stream ahead of Monday Night football on the BP YouTube channel. It goes off from 8pm Eastern Time until kickoff, so please check that out. Also, make sure you're subscribing to The Bank Pros YouTube channel. Ring the bell to be notified of all of our weekly live streams. Let us know down in the comments below your favorite Week 17 bets. And and while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like button and downloading the free Betting Pros app today For Andrew Erickson, I'm Seth Wilcox. Take care y' all. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X&TikTok, eddingpros and Instagram eddingpros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com bettingpros.
- [37:15]
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- [37:49]
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- [37:51]
Andrew Erickson
All.
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- [39:03]
Seth Wilcox
Com this is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.