FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Best Bets for NFL Week 17 | Top Picks, Predictions & Props (Ep. 1920)
Date: December 27, 2025
Hosts: Seth Wilcox & Andrew Erickson

Episode Overview

This episode combines the Player Props and Best Bets shows, delivering the top five plays across ATS, totals, and prop markets for NFL Week 17. Seth Wilcox and Andrew Erickson break down their favorite matchups, highlight key betting strategies, take a dive into player motivation at the close of the season, and share actionable insights to help listeners make winning picks in one of the final full-slate NFL weeks before the playoff and Week 18 chaos.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Setting the Stage: NFL Week 17 Betting Chaos

Timestamps: 00:34 – 04:36

• Both hosts reflect on their holiday breaks and how Week 17 is a critical week for bettors, with starters mostly still playing, unlike the often-unpredictable Week 18.
• Andrew notes the volatility of end-of-season games, especially as playoff motivations shift:

  "Week 18 is going to be so much chaos with team motivations. ... Some teams might think, we could care less where we're seated. We just want a bye week." (03:37)

Best Bet #5 – Browns +3.5 vs. Steelers

Timestamps: 05:23 – 07:40

• Andrew backs the Browns as home underdogs:

  "They are 4-1 against the spread as home underdogs this season... The Cleveland Browns, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Chicago Bears—what do these teams have in common? Bad weather, cold environments, and usually strong defenses." (05:28)

• Motivation factors: Steelers could have less to play for depending on other weekend results; Miles Garrett chasing the sack record is noted as an X-factor.
• Suggested correlated parlay: Packers ML + Browns +3.5 for added value depending on schedule outcomes.

Best Bet #5 (Seth): Rams Alt -6.5 vs. Falcons (Monday Night Football)

Timestamps: 07:40 – 11:56

• Seth highlights the Rams elite ATS performance, especially off a loss (8-2 ATS in non-divisional games):

  "I just want to get back invested with a team that has really been the NFL's best team against the spread this season." (08:22)

• Key angles: Rest advantage for Matthew Stafford and the Rams' defense, potential run-heavy game script.
• Andrew adds a caveat regarding late-season rest mechanics, especially under Sean McVay:

  "[McVay] values health more than anything else... He doesn't play anyone in the preseason." (10:44)

Best Bet #4 – Seahawks -7 at Panthers

Timestamps: 12:42 – 14:21

• Andrew leans hard into historical trends:

  "The Panthers have been undefeated against the spread after losing a game. However, they're 2-5 against the spread after a win this season." (12:51)

• Seahawks have been dominant ATS on the road and particularly on the East Coast (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS).
• The angle: Fade Panthers fresh off a win, while buying Seahawks off extra rest after Thursday Night Football.

Best Bet #4 (Seth): Totals Teaser – Seahawks/Panthers OVER 36.5 + Giants/Raiders UNDER 48.5

Timestamps: 14:21 – 16:59

• First Leg: Seahawks/Panthers to hit the over—both offenses trending up, Panthers home overs have been strong (11 of last 15).
• Second Leg: Giants/Raiders under—concerns about dysfunctional offenses, possible tanking moves, low pace, and conservative game scripts.
• Andrew likes the over but won't touch Giants/Raiders sides:

  "You're a braver man than me for betting on Giants-Raiders. Four-range outcome game. Anything could happen." (16:59)

Best Bet #3 – Player Prop: Tony Pollard OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards

Timestamps: 19:47 – 22:01

• Andrew pivots to player props:

  "Tony Pollard's going to be motivated. He's 51 yards away from a thousand. 151 yards away from a $250k bonus in his contract, along with two more rushing TDs..." (20:18)

• Cites matchup advantages (Saints DL injuries), volume spike, and contract incentives as key factors.

Best Bet #3 (Seth): Parker Washington OVER Receptions

Timestamps: 22:01 – 23:53

• Parker Washington stands out as a slot weapon for the Jaguars, strong recent volume (13 targets, 9 receptions last two games).
• Colts secondary hemorrhaging yards and receptions to WRs recently.
• Willing to take either 2.5 or 3.5 line depending on juice and book.

Best Bet #2 – Alec Pierce OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards

Timestamps: 25:06 – 27:22

• Andrew loves this number:

  "Alec Pierce... 40+ receiving yards in all but three games, and 60+ in all but four games this season... What's old man Rivers going to do? He's going to feed his guy." (25:33)

• Big play upside, contract incentives, and a pass-funnel Jacksonville defense all highlighted.

Best Bet #2 (Seth): Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (-130)

Timestamps: 27:22 – 29:41

• Seth keeps it simple:

  "Have to go back to the well on running backs to score against the Jets... In the last five games, only once did a running back NOT score." (27:23)

• Patriots big favorites, matchups and expected volume all point to a Stevenson score.

Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week

Andrew: Michael Wilson UNDER 4.5 Receptions (vs. Bengals)

Timestamps: 30:29 – 33:00

• The angle:

  "Every single game this year where Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. have played together, Michael Wilson has gone over 4.5 receptions zero times." (31:03)

• Bengals allow the 3rd fewest WR receptions, plus weather could add another barrier.

• Plus money prop for a consistent trend, makes this Andrew’s top play.

• Notable Quote:

  "If you just look at his game log, it's really easy to see the games where Marvin Harrison Jr. comes back and the ones where he's not playing, because the numbers are so stark." (31:18)

Seth: Chase Brown OVER 82.5 Rush + Rec Yards (vs. Cardinals)

Timestamps: 33:00 – 34:43

• Cardinals defense hemorrhaging yards to RBs:

  "They have allowed the most rushing yards to opposing running backs over the past month... and the sixth most receiving yards in that span." (33:16)

• Brown averaging 102.3 scrimmage yards over the last two months; efficient with touches, especially with Joe Burrow back.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Andrew on seasonal betting trends:

  "This is the last week of full fun opportunity to get invested with all the teams that will have their starters up and a full slate for Sunday." (04:36)

• Seth on Rams–Falcons play:

  "Expecting Puka to go buck wild, Kirk Cousins to choke in primetime once again, and the Rams to win by at least a touchdown." (10:01)

• Andrew on Parker Washington:

  "Great after the catch, making a lot of explosive plays... The T Law train continues to roll through Indianapolis." (23:53)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------------|---------------| | Welcoming banter and Week 17 setup | 00:34–04:36 | | Browns +3.5 vs. Steelers (Erickson) | 05:23–07:40 | | Rams Alt -6.5 vs. Falcons (Wilcox) | 07:40–11:56 | | Seahawks -7 at Panthers (Erickson) | 12:42–14:21 | | Totals Teaser: SEA/CAR Over + NYG/LV Under | 14:21–16:59 | | Player Prop: Tony Pollard Over Rush Yds | 19:47–22:01 | | Parker Washington Over Receptions | 22:01–23:53 | | Alec Pierce Over Receiving Yards | 25:06–27:22 | | Stevenson Anytime TD | 27:22–29:41 | | Hard Rock Best Bets (Wilson U, Brown O) | 30:29–34:43 |

Episode Tone & Style

Conversational and analytical, with a strong focus on actionable betting insights, motivational context, and a dash of holiday cheer and friendly ribbing. The hosts keep discussion lively, driving home both stats and narrative context to enhance each pick.

Final Remarks

This episode serves up a smorgasbord of NFL Week 17 bets, with the hosts demonstrating sharp attention to detail, motivation, statistical trends, and prop market edges. From ATS plays and totals to correlated parlays and sharp player props, listeners receive both rationale and ready-to-bet recommendations, all wrapped up in FantasyPros’ signature style.

Recommended for: Sports bettors seeking evidence-backed edges, DFS/fantasy players looking for matchup insights, and fans wanting deeper context for one of the NFL’s most unpredictable weeks.