Joey P. (Host) (2:35)

All right, Andrew Erickson. The Rams last week certainly had a rough go of it losing to the Carolina Panthers. So it would suggest that this week they kind of take out their frustrations on the Arizona Cardinals. Now, there's also been news about Kyron Williams maybe being rested a little bit here and managed a little bit because obviously the super bowl is all that matters for the Rams this season with Matthew Stafford's back being what it was. Remember, remember guys, going into the season when Matthew Stafford, his back is so bad he's never gonna play now. He might be mvp. Remember? That seems like years ago. Well, those are the good old days. Anyway, what does Kyron Williams attempts total look like for you this week? Is it an over or under? Undertaker?

Andrew Erickson (Analyst) (3:14)

I'm slamming the under on Kyron Williams 15 and a half carries. I think that this number is significantly way too high. We're starting to see Kyron Williams rotate snaps and drives with Blake Corum. And it wasn't just last week when Kyron Williams injured his ankle, which he's still dealing with heading into this matchup against Arizona Cardinals. But it's been over like the last month that Sean McVeigh likes to rotate his two running backs. Both of them have been really effective on the ground this season. Again, it's a good matchup for them against the Arizona Cardinals, but given that Kyron Williams has hit the over 16 carries one time in his last nine games played, I think that 15 and a half carries is way too high of a number for a guy that's dealing with an ankle injury and is going to be rotating drives with Blake Corum. So to me, this is the lock of the week under Cameron Williams. Fifteen and a half carries.

Joey P. (Host) (4:00)

All right, next one here a big game for the Buffalo Bills as they try to stay relevant in the AFC east and fight for the Patriots at that one spot right now. But the Buffalo Bills have the Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals coming into town. I've already said my favorite bet of the week is the over in this game. I don't care what you said of that. It's going over what does that mean for Chase Brown, props in particular, Welsh?

Welsh (Analyst) (4:22)

Well, I was able to go and do this, by the way, via betting pros, as always going and shopping the lines and find the absolute best number on betting pros and it helped us out even more because Chase Brown's receiving yards, they're my target and I was able to even get a line under where I usually like to bet as well. 18.5 on chase yards, receiving yards. And you know, to your credit, if you're talking about this game being a big offensive powerhouse and it's going to be playing overs, Chase Brown on the receiving side is going to be involved. He has hit this receiving yard marker in five straight games. He has had 33 targets, whether it's Flacco or Burrow in his last four games and he has caught six or more passes in three straight games. Bills have given up an average of 33 yards receiving to running backs and have given up this prop, this receiving yard prop to running backs in six of their last seven games. The projections both on PFF and fantasy pros are in sync. This is around 25, so there's a really good cushion. You might see this number around like 19.5, 18.5 is the best that I found. Go to betting pros, shop the lines, get the best number and. And you can do that with Chase Brown's receiving yards.

Joey P. (Host) (5:31)

All right, Andrew Erickson, you're in on Chase Brown. I'm in on Chase Brown this week as well. What's your take?

Andrew Erickson (Analyst) (5:37)

Well, you take all of the analysis that Welsh just laid out with the receiving and I'm going to add the rushing component to this. So I'm going to go his yards from scrimmage, rushing and receiving yards over 75 and a half, six straight games of 100 plus yards from scrimmage. So that's giving us a 25 yard buffer for what he's already been doing over the last six weeks. Regardless of whoever the quarterback is going be to, Chase Brown has been absolutely cooking. The Bills have been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season, allowing over 130 yards per game to opposing running backs, the fourth most rushing yards. And this way, it doesn't matter what the game script is, whether the Bengals are winning, whether they're losing. Chase Brown is going to be involved in all facets and he's going to be able to rip off explosive plays against a Bills defense that looks like Joey Bosa is not going to play. Terrell Bernard is not going to play. So again we're going to see a ton of points in this game. The superstars are going to show up on the offensive side of the ball and that includes Chase Brown who will go for over a hundred yards from scrimmage in his seventh straight game.

Joey P. (Host) (6:30)

I'm just betting the rushing yard total over. So basically it's anything Chase Brown. So there you have it everybody. It's just a Chase Brown day all the way around. Maybe put all three of them together and if he has a big day, you're just going to make massive amounts of money. There's your, there's your SGP there. Or you can also take my guy later to score touchdown I'm going to talk about too. You can put that in with some of these Chase Brown totals, little SGP action and of course we want you to place that SGP with where at Hard Rock Bet, our sponsors. So go to Hard Rock Bet right now. Download the Sportsbook app for Hard Rock Bet. It's now live in Michigan. Yeah buddy, let's go. You sign up today, you place your first bet of $5. You get 150 in bonus bets on top of your winnings. And if you're into more casino games while new customers get up to $1,000 back in casino bonus. If you're not up money after your first 24 hours playing slots, win money or get a casino bonus back please. Plus you also get a 200 bonus spins package. You get winnings paid in cash. All of it's right there for you at Hard Rock Bet. Plus if you are betting football this weekend there they got the stats hub with the streaks, the trends, everything to help guide you in the right direction to make your picks. What are the sports books doing that?

Welsh (Analyst) (7:35)

Nobody.

Joey P. (Host) (7:36)

So check out the stats hub right now. And of course the promos, the legendary reward drops. Everything's going on. So now when you listen just download the app and see what's happening on there because they've always got a little gift under the tree for you. And at Hard Rock Bet, download the Sportsbook today for Hard Rock Bet and.

Welsh (Analyst) (7:51)

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Joey P. (Host) (8:54)

All right, next up here we got pick number three. You know everyone wants to take shots at Bo Nicks from fantasy. He always shows up and puts up points. Is it pretty? No. Is it inconsistent? Yes. Yes, oftentimes inconsistent. But he's got a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders this week. So what does that mean in terms of that soft matchup for Bo Nix's prop market?

Welsh (Analyst) (9:15)

Well, something you know I'm always trying to pay attention to is what he's doing with his legs and what the rushing yards are looking like. And this week it really looks primed that we are going to hit that rushing yard prop. A 15.5 over Knicks is averaging on the season around 19 yards per game rushing. He's now this is a weird one. He's hit this only once in his last three games which includes the Raiders. But I love this stat that's attached to it. This is from Tom Strachan. Our dear friend Tom Strachan put this out and it was Bonix versus zone coverages. So most of this is going to be built around how bad Bo Nix is going to look versus own coverage. 32nd quarterback rating among quarterbacks with 50 plus attempts. He's 37th in yards per attempt. A 7 to 6 touchdown to interception ratio. Then here's the last stat that really got me seventh in scramble rate with over 157 yards versus zone. He's going to run. So we go back and I just found another just weird random stat. By the way, I think it was the Kansas City Chiefs and the Raiders were the two that he had not not hit when he'd only hit one in the last three. But this is just a weird stat. Bo Nix has hit this rushing yard prop in every single road game he has played this year. So when he's on the road he's a running. It's a bad defensive coverage where he is going to be taking the ball down and he's going to be chugging. The projections all support this. Maybe not by like you know, crazy insane big numbers. It's like 17 and 20 but everybody's with this. We're hitting this prop. He's on the road. Bo nick's rushing yards 15.5 over also.

Joey P. (Host) (10:48)

On the road this week to a Tunga Violoa as the Dolphins take on the Jets. It's going to be a little chilly and sometimes Tua is not a big fan of the cold. Andrew Erickson, how can we take advantage of that fact this weekend?

Andrew Erickson (Analyst) (11:01)

Tua Tango Viola is going to throw an interception this week. It's going to be the jets first interception on defense all season long and you can get this at play plus money. So this is one of the reasons why I really like the jets on the money line this week because I think that you're going to see Tua turn the ball over here. He's going to turn back the Tua, turn the ball over here. Playing in MetLife Stadium the last two matchups he's played at MetLife against the New York jets, he's totaled three interceptions. And again, talking about the best bet show, something that I mentioned was Tua has been really, really bad against zone coverage this year. He has thrown all 14 of his interceptions. Again, he's thrown 14 interceptions this year. We haven't played 14 games yet, folks. So the Dolphins quarterback has turned the ball over a lot this season, but against man coverage he's been much better. The jets for the most part have played heavily in man coverage this year, but that's because a lot of that goes to them having Sas Garder as part of that defense. And over the last couple games we've seen them kind of throw a couple change ups where they've played a little bit more zone coverage. Week 11, it was just 19% man coverage, 24% in week 12. So I'm kind of doing some forecasting here, getting into the mind of Aaron Glenn again. If he looks at how Tua plays and how he turns the ball over, it's okay. Let's limit our man coverage. Let's play zone and make Tua make mistakes against our defense. I think that's going to work this week. So for me, Tua is going to throw a pick. It's at plus money. If you look at what he's done from December on, he has 28 passing touchdowns to 21 interceptions. The last time he played outdoors in December, The Dolphins lost 56 to 19 and he threw two interceptions. They also lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 26 to 7. He has threw another pick in that game. I mean, look, I can't guarantee the jets are going to win this game, even though that's what I think. But I feel pretty strongly about two. At least throwing one pick here because the jets, they're just, they're, they're due, they are so due for him to throw a pick.

Welsh (Analyst) (12:51)

I would also like to say you are not doing what we talked about off air where we may potentially be looking at laddering this. If you want to go two interceptions on Tua, it's almost six to one for him to throw two interceptions and you just happen to have thrown out that two interception number.

Joey P. (Host) (13:08)

Just saying, just saying, just saying. For more Props, if you want help too, you want to find the best values, the best lines, shop them right over here at the Betting Pros app and look at the Prop ed cheat sheet bettingpros.com props that's the place to go. There you get all the passing, rushing, receiving stat categories, the fantasy projections, the difference between the two and then the best line to bet it. So again, literally handing you the cheat sheet for the test. So make sure you're going to pass the test this week in the NFL. Next one here we've got the Chicago Bears going to Green Bay. Welsh, you've got some love for coast and Loveland this week.

Welsh (Analyst) (13:43)

We are on the Loveland train and I believe I found the best number over at our dear friends over at Hard rock. Receiving yard total 32.5 oh yes, we're going with the over. Though Loveland did not hit this last last week, he has gone over this receiving yard total in five of his last six games. Loveland has also had five or more receptions in two of his last three games. So he has been involved in this offense. Packers defensive grade a little bit suboptimal against tight ends. Safety's grayed out run according to PFF 19 of 32 linebackers 21 of 32. So there you go. That's kind of like that. Suboptimal overall grading against tight ends, but packers are on average giving up over seven targets a game to tight ends. That average comes out to around five catches for 43 yards. Loveland has been a big play guy. It's a cold game, they got injuries on the wide receivers. Loveland's going to get involved. This is an easy big play. He's been making big plays as well. This might be done in maybe one catch, but we've seen lots of targets to tight ends. Loveland has been heavily involved. He's going to get involved in this one and we're going to hit this. Receiving yard total 32 0.5 over all.

Joey P. (Host) (14:49)

Right, let's talk about the Atlanta Falcons who lost last week and now they're moving on to a home game against the Seattle Seahawks. So let's talk about them. Andrew Erickson and Kirk Cousins, what could we see out of him this week?

Andrew Erickson (Analyst) (15:00)

A lot of handoffs to the running backs for the Atlanta Falcons. That's what I'm expecting to see here. This is a five star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet this week. Kirk Cousins under 33 and a half pass attempts. He doesn't have 34 pass attempts in any game this season. Now he's only started a handful of games, but it's been pretty clear what the Falcons are wanting to do when Kirk Cousins is under center is hide him. Don't have him drop back to throw the ball and hand the ball off to the running backs. Weeks 12 through 13 pass rate over expectation for the Falcons negative 10%. In his other start in week eight it was negative 13%. Still not sure if Drake London is going to play in this matchup. So again that goes back to we want to establish the run Hyde, Kirk Cousins again against a very fierce Seattle Seahawks defense and pass rush. I think that this is simple what the Falcons are trying to do here and that's trying to run the football. So give me the under 30 three and a half past attempts.

Joey P. (Host) (15:48)

All right. Welsh last week we saw a breakout game from AD Mitchell and the Jets. Previous two games he had been targeted a lot but really nothing came of it. So this week the number is 47 and a half. Quite a bump here. It's never a matter of targets. He's getting targets. It's catching the ball, catching the targets that have been the challenge for Ednai Mitchell in the past. So what happens this week? We're going over or under that 47.

Welsh (Analyst) (16:11)

And a half going to play the over. It's all the. Is it the over for this week and A.D. mitchell, that's my guy. And the unfortunate thing, the one problem to have of course when you're a wide receiver is to have the hands because he's got everything else. He's got breakaway speed and incredible route runner. Just separation. He's got all of that. It just has been the hands. But it clicked this past week. Over. And I've said this a couple different shows for the last week or two but this counting 12, 12 and 13, 359 air yards to Adonai Mitchell that is the most by any wide receiver in the NFL over the last two games. That is the most by 80 yards to the next player which was CD Lamb before this weekend averages over the last two weeks, 31.1% target percentage for Adnai Mitchell, 42.5% first read. And he's averaged 9.5 targets per game. I love it. He is the guy. Torod Taylor absolutely loves getting him the ball. We look at the Dolphins, they have given this up to opposing wide receivers in four straight games. Grading out is a little bit tougher. Some of the grades don't love this, but what I do is that Adonai Mitchell is going to get a massive amount of target share. He does have to actually catch the ball, but he is the first read guy. He's the deep play guy. Jokingly, we say that about Loveland. Like, oh, he could do it in one catch. Adam Mitchell legitimately can do it in one catch. He can also fumble right after, but he can do it in one catch. So I love this. I think he has proven to be the guy at least that they're putting their trust in and the projections all over the board. But I thought it was interesting. BFFs put this at over 50. 56 was actually the number. So I'm jumping headfirst into the AD Nitchell Waters. We have suggested that people go pick him up in waivers this week. We're suggesting that he's a wide receiver. 3. So let's suggest that he can crack 50 and actually live up to that fantasy outcome. So Adonai Mitchell is my, my last prop.

Joey P. (Host) (18:01)

All right, your last prop, Andrew, has to do with Brenton Strange of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now last week, four targets caught, three of them for 45 and a touchdown. Is this a pivot now to a different set of circumstances? Like, you know, the BTJ stuff wasn't working this year and you know, we had the Travis Hunter injury. Is this something that's sustainable in Week 14 against the Colts?

Andrew Erickson (Analyst) (18:21)

100% because the Colts have been absolutely eviscerated by tight ends this year. You look at the ECR rankings on Fantasy Bros. Where Breton Strange is ranked. He's not top 10, he's not top eight, he's not top seven. He's like top five for tight ends this week. Now, obviously George Kittle's not playing we which puts up other guys up the board, but he's in an absolute smash spot this week. And what I really like about him in this particular matchup, you look at where he's been targeted the most. 23% target rate per run against zone coverage this season. That's the highest rate among non backfield Jaguars pass catchers. That's According to Next Gen Stats, 315of his 342total receiving yards have come against zone coverage this season. And when I'm looking at the Colts defense, I think that maybe we could see them play a little bit more zone coverage just because going back to my sauce Gardner Corollary it's when you don't have sauce you have to play a little bit more zone because you don't have guys that are matching up in manto man situations. So given Breton Strange the matchup against the Colts, they're playing a little bit more zone. They've been giving it up to a ton of tight ends this year and he's been super, super productive. He has 44 plus yards in all but one of his healthy games played this season. He left game because of one of an injury. So I think over 41 and a half receiving yards, I mean he could get this over in the in the first half. So I think he has an immense ceiling this week. And considering that it looks like Walker Little, the starting left tackle for the Jaguars might not play in this game, I think that it's more Trevor Lawrence. Get the ball out quick to your tight end underneath option. He trusts Strange so I think he's given a monster game. So take the over.

Joey P. (Host) (19:47)

All right, let's talk touchdowns here. And of course the touchdown score report is available@bettingpros.com Touchdown if you're looking for the edge, we've got it for you. Touchdown stats to prop bet odds and the projections help you find the very best in anytime touchdown bets this week in the NFL. So head over and check out the touchdown score report@bettingpros.com touchdown that's easy to remember. All right, I'm going with some simple ones I think this week. But simple is good. Simple is effective. I want to maintain my lead at the top of the board here. So Jamar Chase -115 against the Buffalo Bills. Yeah, it's minus. I don't care. I'd rather put two units on it and get it that be wrong on a three to one. I will say though, Andrew Erickson did have one that I love so we'll get to his in just a moment. And my other one is Kyle Manon guy who's been on a bit of a touchdown streak. Everybody always negates the Bears dismisses the Bears and every week they either cover or win outright. And who knows, maybe they can do it again in Green Bay. But Kyle MANANGAI, you're getting 2 to 1 plus 210 on that number for Kyle Manon. Guy Erickson, we'll start with you. You've got two touchdowns here, one in that Jets Miami game and another one, as I mentioned earlier, kind of full circle moment for you with your Kyron Williams pick coming back around here.

Andrew Erickson (Analyst) (20:59)

Yeah. So first one is Darren Waller. Anytime touchdown plus 260. Not really correlated with kind of fading Tua this week, but I do think that the jets have been really bad against tight ends this season. They're actually 31st in DVOA. 32nd is the Cincinnati Bengals. So the jets are in that Bengals territory for tight ends and we've already seen this matchup play up before. Earlier in the year, Waller faced the jets. He didn't have one touchdown, he had two tutties. So Darren Waller, that's all he's really good for at this point is just being this big body in the red zone. So if the Dolphins score, I think that Waller can find pay dirt. So I love him at plus 260. And the other one is Blake Corum, the secondary back in the Rams backfield. But really it's more of a 1A 1B situation. If Corm is cooking on the drives that he has the football, well, he's going to get chances to score. So I think at nearly 3 to 1 plus 290, these are way too long of odds against the Arizona Cardinals bottom 10 run defense. They've allowed five straight running back rushing overs and Corum has 17 red zone opportunities this season. He but he only has two touchdowns. Every other player with at least 13 red zone opportunities has scored at least three touchdowns. Regression is due for Blake Corum in this matchup, especially if Kyron Williams is continuing to nurse this ankle injury. I think he's going to get a red zone carry. He's just got to punch it in. I know sometimes Corum has been stuffed at the goal line, which has been kind of frustrating, but he's going to get his opportunities here and I think he's going to find the end zone. So Blake Corum plus two nine again, I'm giving some pretty long odds this week, but I feel pretty good about both of them.

Joey P. (Host) (22:21)

All right, Welsh, what do you feel pretty good about when it comes to touchdowns in week 14?

Welsh (Analyst) (22:25)

I'm playing even longer odds on this one. Both of mine are more than three to one and we're going in in the tight end market and I'm going to attach one to my guy and then I'm going to go with one to Ericsson on both of these tight ends. So the longest odds of any of these is colson Loveland at plus 380 right now. And as I mentioned, packers giving up almost six receptions per game. They're banged up on the wide receiver front. They're going to win this game. They're going to have to do it without just a Roma dunzo who really hasn't been doing a whole bunch. Obviously if they get into short yardage I think a guy like Kyle Menon guy, Deandre Swift comes into play. But if you're playing from anywhere outside of the 10 I think Colson leveling is in play as everything I mentioned before. So I like him at +380 and then I'm going to go with Erickson's guy in Britain. Strange I really like this one. Colts are giving up over 72 yards to tight ends per game, almost seven receptions and they've given up five touchdowns to tight ends on the air. Colts are grading out 30 of 32 in defensive grade against tight ends so far this year. So I love Trevor Lawrence. I think Strange is in a really good spot. Get him in the red zone, he's going to score. I got that one locked in at plus 320. So a little bit longer odds but kind of like Ericsson. I just like both of these plays this week.

Joey P. (Host) (23:39)

Now remember, you could tell us over at Betting Pros too. When you download the app, just search our names. You can see what we are in on this week in week 14. And check out the Betting Pro systems and track your own bets too so you know what's going well for you and what's not going well so you can maximize your profits. That's what it's all about. All right everybody make sure you subscribe to the channel. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on. For the Welsh and Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

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Andrew Erickson (Analyst) (25:06)

All.

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