FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode Title: Best NFL Prop Bets For Week 14 (Ep. 1883)
Date: December 6, 2025
Host: Joey P. (Joe P. Zepia)
Analysts: The Welsh, Andrew Erickson

Overview

This week, the Betting Pros team returns from a holiday hiatus to break down the best NFL player prop bets for Week 14. Joey P., The Welsh, and Andrew Erickson cover value picks and projections informed by stats, trends, and game context—helping listeners looking for betting action (especially those out of their fantasy playoffs) or simply seeking an added edge. The episode balances statistical insights, projections, and betting strategy with the hosts’ signature humor and banter.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trevor Lawrence Over 220.5 Passing Yards vs. Colts

• [01:34] Welsh:
  • Colts’ man-heavy coverage scheme aligns with Lawrence's strengths.
  • “Lawrence ranking 10th in NFL in their PFF pass grade against man coverage. Colts run man coverage 8th most of all their defensive snaps. … I love this passing yard marker.”
  • Lawrence has exceeded this yardage in 2 of last 3 games; Colts have allowed it in 7 of their last 9.
• Projection: FantasyPros puts him at 242—well over the posted prop.

2. Kyron Williams Under 15.5 Carries vs. Cardinals

• [03:14] Andrew Erickson:
  • Points to ankle injury and increased rotation with Blake Corum.
  • “Kyron Williams has hit the over 16 carries one time in his last nine games played… This is the lock of the week under.”
  • Rams likely to manage Williams’ workload with postseason in mind.

3. Chase Brown Receiving and Total Yards Props vs. Bills

• [04:22] Welsh:

  • Targets Chase Brown over 18.5 receiving yards.
  • “He has hit this receiving yard marker in five straight games. … Bills have given up this prop to running backs in six of their last seven games.”

• [05:37] Andrew Erickson:

  • Leans on total yards: over 75.5 rushing plus receiving.
  • “Six straight games of 100 plus yards from scrimmage. … Regardless of quarterback, Brown has been absolutely cooking.”
  • Buffalo defense weakened, allowing explosiveness to RBs.

• [06:30] Joey P.:

  • “It’s just a Chase Brown day all the way around. Maybe put all three of them together … You’re just going to make massive amounts of money.”

4. Bo Nix Over 15.5 Rushing Yards vs. Raiders

• [09:15] Welsh:
  • Looks for Nix to exploit weak zones and run more on the road.
  • “Seventh in scramble rate… Bo Nix has hit this rushing yard prop in every single road game he has played this year.”

5. Tua Tagovailoa to Throw an Interception vs. Jets

• [11:01] Andrew Erickson:
  • “Tua is going to throw an interception this week. … Last two matchups at MetLife, three interceptions.”
  • Jets moving to more zone coverage could exploit Tua’s weaknesses (all 14 INTs vs. zone).
  • “You can get this at plus money.” Also mentions 2+ INTs is nearly 6:1 odds.
• [12:51] Welsh:
  • Playfully pushes the idea of betting on 2+ interceptions for a big payout.

6. Colson Loveland Over 32.5 Receiving Yards vs. Packers

• [13:43] Welsh:
  • Highly involved tight end with 5 of last 6 over this mark.
  • “Packers giving up over 7 targets a game to tight ends… This might be done in maybe one catch.”

7. Kirk Cousins Under 33.5 Pass Attempts vs. Seahawks

• [15:00] Andrew Erickson:
  • Falcons will lean heavily on running backs to hide Cousins.
  • “Doesn’t have 34 pass attempts in any game this season… Hyde, Kirk Cousins again against a very fierce Seattle Seahawks defense.”

8. Adonai (A.D.) Mitchell Over 47.5 Receiving Yards

• [16:11] Welsh:
  • High air yard and target share; massive usage boost.
  • “359 air yards to Adonai Mitchell… most by 80 yards over the next player. … He can do it in one catch.”
  • BFFs (PFF) model has him at 56 receiving yards.

9. Brenton Strange Over 41.5 Receiving Yards vs. Colts

• [18:21] Andrew Erickson:
  • “Colts have been absolutely eviscerated by tight ends… He has 44 plus yards in all but one of his healthy games played this season.”
  • Colts play more zone, where Strange sees a higher target rate (23% target/route vs. zone).
  • With Jaguars’ LT potentially out, expect quick throws to Strange.

Touchdown Bets Segment

10. Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks

• [19:47] Joey P.:

  • Jamar Chase (-115) vs. Bills: Betting volume here over odds.
  • Kyle Manon Guy (+210) vs. Packers: Hot streak and value.

• [20:59] Andrew Erickson:

  • Darren Waller (+260): “Jets are actually 31st in DVOA [against tight ends]… Earlier Waller had two touchdowns vs the Jets.”
  • Blake Corum (+290): “Way too long of odds. … Cardinals have allowed five straight running back rushing overs… Regression is due.”

• [22:25] Welsh:

  • Colson Loveland (+380): “Packers giving up almost six receptions/game… banged up at receiver. I think Loveland is in play.”
  • Brenton Strange (+320): “Colts are giving up over 72 yards and almost seven receptions to tight ends… five touchdowns to tight ends this year.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Joey P. warms up the crowd:
  “It’s a warm holiday feel fest over here… Big hugs.”

• Welsh calls his shot on Trevor Lawrence:
  “This is the first prop I locked in this week. Trevor Lawrence, 220.5 over passing yards.” [01:34]

• Erickson's lock of the week:
  “This is the lock of the week under… Kyron Williams 15.5 carries.” [03:14]

• On Tua’s interception prop:
  “Tua has been really, really bad against zone coverage… We haven’t played 14 games yet, folks.” [11:01]

• Bo Nix ‘road warrior’ stat:
  “Bo Nix has hit this rushing yard prop in every single road game he has played this year.” [09:15]

• High on Chase Brown:
  “Chase Brown… has been absolutely cooking. … A ton of points in this game.” [05:37]

• Welsh jokes about Adonai Mitchell:
  “He can also fumble right after [catching one], but he can do it in one catch.” [16:11]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Colts/Jaguars Projections & Trevor Lawrence Prop: 01:34
• Kyron Williams Under 15.5 Carries: 03:14
• Chase Brown Receiving (18.5) & Scrimmage Yards (75.5) Props: 04:22–06:30
• Bo Nix Over 15.5 Rushing Yards: 09:15
• Tua Tagovailoa INT Prop: 11:01
• Colson Loveland Over 32.5 Receiving Yards: 13:43
• Kirk Cousins Under 33.5 Pass Attempts: 15:00
• Adonai Mitchell Over 47.5 Receiving Yards: 16:11
• Brenton Strange Over 41.5 Receiving Yards: 18:21
• Touchdown Bets Segment: 19:47–22:25

Quick Reference: Featured Props & Recommended Bets

| Player | Prop/Bet | Lean | Rationale Summary | |--------------------|-----------------------------------|-------|-------------------------------| | Trevor Lawrence | Over 220.5 Passing Yards | Over | Colts' man-coverage, stats | | Kyron Williams | Under 15.5 Carries | Under | Rotation/injury risk | | Chase Brown | Over 18.5 Rec. / 75.5 Scrimmage | Over | Bills RB defense, hot streak | | Bo Nix | Over 15.5 Rushing Yards | Over | Away game scramble tendency | | Tua Tagovailoa | 1+ INT (potential for 2+) | Over | Jets shifting to more zone | | Colson Loveland | Over 32.5 Receiving Yards | Over | Usage, Packers TE defense | | Kirk Cousins | Under 33.5 Pass Attempts | Under | Falcons' run-first offense | | AD Mitchell | Over 47.5 Receiving Yards | Over | Target/air yard share | | Brenton Strange | Over 41.5 Receiving Yards | Over | Colts poor vs. TE, usage |

Tone & Style

• Upbeat, data-driven, with plenty of friendly banter and actionable advice.
• Accessible to both casual betters and stat-focused players.
• Heavy use of stats and historical context, but always focused on practical takeaways ("this is my lock," "shop the lines," "look for plus money").

Conclusion

The Betting Pros team delivers a robust slate of Week 14 prop bet recommendations, targeting value in player markets and exploiting matchups with sound reasoning and statistical support. Whether you’re chasing action outside your fantasy league or just want an edge for Sunday betting, the episode hands you both context and concrete picks—with plenty of entertaining analysis along the way.