FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Episode: Best NFL Prop Bets For Week 15 (Ep. 1898)
Date: December 13, 2025
Overview
This episode dives deep into the best NFL player prop bets for Week 15. Host Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia) is joined by analysts Welsh and Andrew Erickson to break down their favorite player props across the league. The trio share detailed reasoning, key stats, matchup analysis, and vibrant banter, aiming to help listeners gain an edge in sports betting and fantasy. There's also a recurring, good-natured contest among the hosts for successful touchdown predictions.
Note: Timestamps are provided for major discussion points and memorable moments.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Thursday Night Football & Buccaneers' Struggles
[00:33-02:02]
- The team briefly recaps the most recent Thursday Night Football game, spotlighting the Buccaneers' ongoing defensive woes and inability to stop opposing tight ends.
- Welsh remarks:
"How about stop a tight end?...it was wild to watch Kyle Pitts live up to all the expectations." (01:08)
- Discussion on Baker Mayfield’s struggles behind an unstable offensive line.
- Welsh remarks:
Betting Strategy in Lopsided Games
[02:02-02:58]
- Joey P. asks about the impact of heavy favorites on prop betting.
- Erickson explains:
"Sometimes it's just better to look at how many points does this team implied to score...bet the overs on those offensive players. You bet the unders on the players that are getting blown out." (02:29)
- The unpredictable nature of garbage time and backdoor covers is mentioned.
Hosts' Prop Bet Records and Friendly Rivalries
[02:58-03:23]
- Brief mention of ongoing prop contest standings among the hosts:
- Welsh: 12 touchdowns, slightly over .500
- Erickson: 13 touchdowns, just under .500
- Joey P.: tied at 13, seeking redemption this week
- Welsh notes a near-miss on a longshot tight end prop:
"I hit my almost 4 to 1...ROI thing this year, next year..." (03:14)
Top Prop Bets of the Week
1. Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 Receiving Yards
Welsh: [03:23-05:28]
- Emphasis on Mariota starting and his affinity for McLaurin (14 targets in relief).
- Giants' pass defense ranks bottom-10; set up for McLaurin to eclipse this total.
"Terry McLaurin could get 80% of this on one catch and we know he's going to get targeted by Marcus Mariota." (04:44)
2. Drake Maye Over 230.5 Passing Yards
Erickson: [05:28-06:59]
- Shockingly low line for a league-leading passer.
- Bills' best defensive back, Christian Benford, banged up.
"He's thrown for 240 passing yards 10 times this season...Usually some of these props you come on here, it's like these kind of vomit players...But this one to me is just like, oh, I can bet on a great player in a great game." (05:42)
3. Rashee Rice Over 6.5 Receptions (+ Money)
Welsh: [06:59-09:02]
- Motivated Chiefs facing must-win; Rice has been the go-to vs. zone coverages.
- Chargers play the fourth-highest rate of zone coverage.
"Mahomes is going to target him a bunch and we’re going to get seven receptions plus money." (08:38)
4. Travis Etienne Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
Erickson: [09:02-10:35]
- Jets' run defense struggling since trade of Quinnen Williams.
- Recent running backs have gashed the Jets; Etienne is hot and trusted.
"I like ETN here to go over at home. Big total positive game script..." (10:29)
5. Tyler Warren Over 4.5 Receptions (+130)
Welsh: [12:39-15:03]
- Colts quarterback uncertainty; Rivers likely to lean on tight ends.
- Seahawks' defense rates near worst vs. TEs.
"If Philip Rivers is going to be in that game, there is going to be some passing going on...Tyler Warren will be his safety net." (13:30)
6. Kenneth Walker Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
Erickson: [15:03-16:42]
- Seattle expected to dominate game script at home.
- Colts run defense vulnerable, even with expected return of DT Buckner.
"The Seahawks have been the run heaviest team this season...If they're killing this team, I think Kenneth Walker...can get to at least 60 rushing yards." (16:18)
7. Isaiah Likely Over 4 Receptions (+130)
Welsh: [17:29-18:56]
- Bengals worst in league against tight ends.
- Likely’s had 12 targets in last two games.
"Bengals are the worst against tight ends…receiving yards might be a plus that you can play on this, but I like the receptions at this big plus money." (17:40)
8. Juwan Johnson Over 3.5 Receptions
Erickson: [18:56-20:20]
- Consistent usage above this line, only dipped briefly due to weather game in Tampa.
"He's had at least four catches in every single game since week seven except for one." (19:34)
9. Ricky Pearsall Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
Welsh: [20:20-22:38]
- Pure “vibes” play: 49ers need to reignite Pearsall post-injury vs. generous Titans secondary.
"If he doesn't hit it, he's dead to me...But this is the gross sicko bet vibe bet of the week." (22:19)
10. Kyle Monangai Over 12.5 Carries
Erickson:[22:38-24:41]
- Rookie RB expected to be fed in December cold vs. struggling Browns run ‘D’.
- Averaged 15 carries per game last month; style fits weather.
"No one's going to want to tackle this guy when it's zero degree temperatures out." (23:29)
Touchdown Prop Calls
[24:41-29:44]
Joey P.
- Isaiah Likely (BAL TE): +230
- Tetairoa McMillan (unspecified team): +155
"I think I can go 2 for 2 this week and I need to, I need to stop crapping the bed here." (25:39)
Welsh
- Treveyon Henderson (BUF RB): ~-105/-110
"Bills have given up 16 rushing touchdowns this year to running backs..." (26:07)
- Tyler Warren (IND TE): +350
"I really like Tyler Warren on the ROI because the number is like +350." (27:36)
Andrew Erickson
- Kyle Monangai (CHI RB): +130
"Process play: take home teams, the lead running back in the red zone, and bet them to score touchdowns." (27:57)
- Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB): -105
"He's gonna score...He's scored in every home game the Seahawks played this year." (28:20)
Memorable Banter
- Welsh playfully gripes:
"Joe made the sheet and then just dropped his touchdowns and didn’t allow. I was 100 going likely and Warren this week. Those are my touchdowns." (29:01)
- Extended, running joke about tight ends:
"We need Jake Butt. Where is he?...Well, Keisha on booty, too. We can give a booty little parlay." (19:24)
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
Welsh, on the "plus reception" prop trilogy:
"This is the final of the series. This is our third book in the plus reception series…and hopefully this trilogy is going to end better than many other trilogies." (17:40)
-
Erickson, on his Week 15 props:
"It took 15 weeks but I have a full card of all overs. All my player props are over." (23:05)
-
Prop betting wisdom from Erickson:
"You can't make money going—or you can't be. You're not gonna go broke being right." (28:25)
Timestamps for Important Segments
| Segment | Timestamp (MM:SS) | |----------------------------------------------|----------------------| | Introduction & Thursday Night Recap | 00:33–02:02 | | Betting Big-Favorite Games | 02:02–02:58 | | Prop Records, Contest Standings | 02:58–03:23 | | Terry McLaurin Over (Welsh) | 03:40–05:28 | | Drake Maye Over (Erickson) | 05:28–06:59 | | Rashee Rice Receptions (Welsh) | 06:59–09:02 | | Travis Etienne Rushing (Erickson) | 09:02–10:35 | | Tyler Warren Receptions (Welsh) | 12:54–15:03 | | Kenneth Walker Rushing (Erickson) | 15:14–16:42 | | Isaiah Likely Receptions (Welsh) | 17:29–18:56 | | Juwan Johnson Receptions (Erickson) | 18:56–20:20 | | Ricky Pearsall Receiving (Welsh) | 20:33–22:38 | | Kyle Monangai Carries (Erickson) | 22:38–24:41 | | Touchdown Calls | 24:41–29:44 |
Tone & Style
The hosts blend sharp, analytic fantasy football insight with witty banter and accessible betting advice. The mood is competitive but friendly, filled with stats-backed recommendations and recurring jokes about tight ends, injuries, and “vibes” plays. Their language is lively, intelligent, and never forgets to entertain as well as inform.
Summary
In this entertaining and information-packed episode, Joey P., Welsh, and Andrew Erickson break down the best player prop bets for Week 15 of the NFL. Their picks mix strong statistical basis, matchup analytics, and a dash of humorous intuition—particularly on some riskier, “vibes”-driven calls. The episode is essential listening for anyone looking to bet (or set fantasy lineups) with confidence—and enjoy a good touch of podcast banter.