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- [00:00]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
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- [00:34]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
In everybody to Betting pros. It's time to place your bets. It is me, Joey P, Joe P. Zappia, and this is BP NFL. It's week 15. It's time to look ahead to the props with the Welsh and the Andrew Erickson. They've got five props each lined up for you. We got some touchdown calls. That contest has gotten way too close. I don't like it at all. And of course, maybe we'll touch on a little bit of what we saw last night. Thursday Night Football. The Buccaneers, Welsh. The bleeding cannot be stopped. It's orange blood everywhere. The Buccaneers just keep losing games. And Kirk Cousins, Kirk Cousins keeps carving them up on an annual basis. What is happening to the Bucks?
- [01:08]
Welsh
I mean, how about stop a tight end? How about stop what we thought was the most overrated tight end ever, and then he just puts up the third best tight end performance I think since the year I was born. It was wild to watch Kyle Pitts live up to all the expectations. And I think what's more brutal about it is this was the full completion of this team. You know, what was the interview before? They're like, baker, how do you feel that you now have all your pieces and everybody's healthy and everyone's there? And he's like, I feel like losing. You know, like that's what it essentially happened. It was pretty actually shocking, to be honest with you, for them to kind of drop it and not be able to put all that together. But it wasn't, you know, it wasn't just on Baker, the offense, even though Baker seems way more stoic and confused at the. At the offensive line point when any type of pressure is coming in. But the defense was just cake. It was. It was. It was bad. It was depressing. If you were a Bucks fan, I'm not, so I'm not depressed, but it was rough.
- [02:02]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
Andrew, we talked a lot about the Best Bet show. If you miss it, you can go back and watch about some of these games that are very heavy favorites this week. Right. A lot of big giant underdogs, a lot of one sided potential games. How does that affect, as you're, you know, starting to work on analyzing props because, you know, one side of games sometimes can be really difficult to kind of plug into stuff that you like because you just don't know our team's going to shut things down in the third and fourth quarter if they're up by a lot or are things going to go sideways in some of those games that we never saw coming.
- [02:30]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, it's always tough to handicap that and try to consider that. But again, sometimes it's just better to look at how many points does this team implied to score. They're going to score a lot of points. Chances are that's good for those offensive players. You bet the overs on those offensive players. You bet the unders on the players that are getting blown out. So again, you can always get beat by garbage time. You can always get beat by a backdoor cover here and there. But those things tend to regress over time and, and usually aren't the best bets to make, unlike the ones that we're going to talk about here today.
- [02:59]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
All right, you got to get better than last week, too. Welsh 1 and 4, Erickson 2 and 3. Erickson, you're just under 500. Welsh still over 500 for the year. And a touchdown contest. Oh, my God. Welsh at 12. Erickson, I tied at 13. I didn't get any last week. I got to get a bunch this week.
- [03:14]
Welsh
I hit my almost 4 to 1. So if we were doing RO, I'd love to have seen this as an ROI thing this year, next year, because that was a close to four to one tight end call. But that was about the only good thing I had last week.
- [03:24]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
So next year we'll have that technology. All right, Welsh, why don't you kick us off here with the first of our props for week 15. Obviously the first one up here is from the New York Giants and Washington Commanders contest, one that could have a surprisingly high total. So let's talk about Terry McLaren's output in that game.
- [03:41]
Welsh
So if you listen to any of the shows that Erickson and I have done this week. Erickson and I do quite a few shows together. We're a team. And we would have given you a preview specifically on the Extra Point podcast, which is on our discord over on Fantasy Pros, you would have got a little bit of a tease of the few of the things that we really, really liked. And I had talked about this one and I made it my first one of the week. It is Terry McLaurin. I'm all in on Terry McLaurin this week. We're going with the receiving yards. 60.5, 14 targets. Those 14 targets, they were not last week. Those were the Jaden Daniels targets. And then he gets hurt in the Mariota. Those are the targets as Terry McLaurin return back to game action with Marcus Mariota. Marcus Mariota targeted him 14 times. He got 7 for 96 in that big game against the Denver Broncos. Phenomenal start even when he was just getting his legs fresh under him. Now you've got Mariota as the start of this week. You've got a great matchup. Giants giving up the in top 10 in passing yards allowed overall on the season. They defensively grayed out according to PFF, 28 of 32 against wide receivers. I think it's a prime matchup where Mariota is throwing the ball a bunch more. Terry McLaren is his target. As Erickson says, anything but Deebo Samuel should be your fantasy output. And in your prop output, I think that equates to Terry McLaurin. Terry McLaurin is also the big target. You know, the big play target guy. This is something with a really bad defensive matchup or at least on their side bad defensively. Terry McLaurin could get 80% of this on one catch and we know he's going to get targeted by Marcus Mariota. Run games also a little banged up. We'll see with the Chris Rodriguez stuff. But either way and you can run against the Giants, that's probably like the biggest negative you would have in this one. But. But I think that's going to set up play action and I think that's going to set up Terry McLaurin to kind of eat in this one. So 60.5 receiving yards. Give me the over.
- [05:28]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
All right. Andrew Erickson, looks like your first prop of the week has a little bit of Joey P Influence. Cause this is one of my things for the parlay show. Let's talk about Drake May and his passing yard total in this huge game where the division's on the line with the Buffalo Bills.
- [05:42]
Andrew Erickson
Well, I loved it so much that I threw it on the prop show because I think that it deserves for everybody to be part of this even if it's not part of your parlay. This should be a single player prop bet that you make drake may over 230 and a half passing yards. It really is just a number that you look at and think this guy leads the NFL in passing Yards. And this is what his passing yards prop is set at. He's thrown for 240 passing yards 10 times this season. That's tied for the most of any quarterback this year. He's on a streak of six consecutive games that leads 240 passing yards, third longest active streak in the NFL this season. He's already thrown for 273 yards against the Bills this season back in week five and at home. He's hit this number in all but one home game, six out of seven and in three of four of the games with the Patriots as underdogs this season. So I mean usually some of these props you come on here, it's like these kind of vomit players with these really low props. You're like, oh, like I think you can squeeze right over it. But this one to me is just like, oh, I can bet on a great player in a great game to hit a dramatically low number. So yeah, this one for me is a layup easy. Especially with the Bills. They actually put one of their. Christian Benford was on the injury report added this week. He's probably their best defensive back and if he doesn't go or he's less than 100%, you're just going to see Drake may shred this Bill secondary. So give me the over.
- [07:00]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
Yeah, it's a low number. I don't get it. Like weather be damned again, people tried to tell me last week about how everything was going to be under because of the weather. How'd that work out? How did that work out? All right, let's go to Welsh's second selection here. And it's got to do with Rushy Rice. Now the, the Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs right now are in their feelings and rightfully so. I mean, they're a six win team on the outside of the bubble looking in another must win game. And I'm getting tired of saying it. Welsh on the must win game every single week for the Kansas City Chiefs. So how can Rushy Rice's prop market influence the Chiefs in maybe a positive way and maybe our wallets as well?
- [07:34]
Welsh
Yeah, I mean I, the Chiefs are definitely, you know, teetering down right now. I don't, I wouldn't quite think that they're a team that, you know, when that pressure is put on and when it's important that they're going to just buckle and just pack it in. They're going to go as hard as possible and that means they need to be more aggressive. I don't even know if that necessarily Pushes to this exact prop but I think they got to get the ball in the air more. But what we did see last week when that must win big pressure situation was drops. We saw a ton of drops and we need these guys to pick this back up this week. I'm pretty heavy across multiple props on receptions and the reception guy. When you look across all the wide receivers in this game, it is Rasheed Rice. We're going to go to Rasheed Rice plus seven catches or over six and a half receptions and it's plus money this week. Rice has hit this in two of his last three games. Found this really interesting over on pff. Rice against zone heavy defenses. Rice is targeted at the third highest rate among wide receivers in the NFL in zone coverage. The Chargers play the fourth highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL. So in what I think is going to be a pass heavy situation, Rasheed Rice should see a ton of receptions. Projections also like this. Most projections have him at the seven plus marker. So you're getting plus money on seven receptions for Rasheed Rice. I know it's a weird situation with the Chiefs. Didn't hit it last week, had the drops. We're going to bounce back from that. Mahomes is going to target him a bunch and we're going to get seven receptions plus money. Rasheed Rice.
- [09:03]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
All right, plus money on Rasheed Rice. Next one we're talking about is a running back here in one of the many potential blowout games. We've got the Jacksonville Jaguars in a beat up spot where the jets are playing a third string quarterback. Gross. So Travis Atn, let's talk about his prop total. It's 72 and a half rushing yards. Andrew, it seems like a game where you're going to have a lead if you are the Jags and you're going to be running out some clock late.
- [09:25]
Andrew Erickson
That's the way I hope it plays out because I'm taking the over on Travis Etienne and his rushing yards. At 72 and a half rushing yards, he actually hit this in four of his last six games played. He's kind of been on a low key heater. Usually Travis Etienne kind of falls off in the second half of the season. Not really been the case this year where they've been really leaning on him and he's been part of the reason why the Jaguars have been on this hot streak over the last four to six weeks. So the jets defensively ever since they traded Quinn and Williams. I've been saying this on a lot of shows but just buns against the run the New York Jets. So I I like attacking their defense. You've just seen some running backs recently face them and just have absolute monster games. Hn last week he didn't play the full game and he had a monster game in the first half against the New York Jets. Nine running backs in the last seven games have hit at least 62 rushing yards against the Jets. Seven have hit 65 or more. And like I said, ETN's been going over this number pretty consistently and I do think they're going to continue to lean on him instead of Bay Shell too. And who had two fumbles last week and they even talked about the the coaches this week about etn. Hey when he gets going he is our workhorse. He can really do a lot of damage. So I like ETN here to go over at home. Big total positive game script against Brady Cook. Brady Cook. Yeah, give me the Jags or rb.
- [10:36]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
All right, before we get to the next prop on our list, don't forget to support our sponsor and that is Hard Rock BET Sportsbook. The holidays are here and the sports schedule is jam packed tighter than Santa's gift bag. And week 15 football is on its way. We got bowl games coming to NBA, college, hoops, hockey. It's all going down right now. The sleigh is loaded and the Hard Rock Bet sports app is here for you to unwrap and you can start betting on some of these events. Bet 5 bucks. Get 150 in bonus bets when your first bet hits, plus your winnings. Stick that in your stocking. How's that for holiday magic? If you're not sure what to put your first bet on, don't worry because the Hard Rock Bet app has launched the brand new for you page, making it easy to follow your favorite teams, players, leagues. They got the stats up. They got everything there. It's it's also legal in Florida. It's the only one in Florida, by the way, where you have a sports book you can download to your device. Plus it's there in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan. Coming soon to more states near you. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos daily, so whenever you're listening, just open the app, check out what's in there every single week and download the Hard Rock Bet app today so you can make your first deposit and start winning some bonus Cash payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by the Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and other states bonus must be 21 plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concern about gambling in Florida, call 1-833-play- wise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. And Doug, here we have the Limu.
- [12:14]
Welsh
Emu in its natural habitat helping people customize their car insurance and sa hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug Limu. Is that guy with the binoculars watching us. Cut the camera. They see us. Only pay for what you need@liberty mutual.com Savings very unwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company affiliates excludes Massachusetts.
- [12:39]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
All right, let's get to the next prop on the list for the boys here. Welsh. It's tough to know what we're gonna get from the Indianapolis Colts now that Daniel Jones is out for the year. So how are we going to take a look at Tyler Warren in week 15?
- [12:54]
Welsh
Yeah, this is the second of my series of plus money receptions that we're going with this week and I talked about this a lot on all of the shows and you know, it's a, it's a risky endeavor because you have no idea what you're getting in with with Philip Rivers hasn't played in five years. He is familiar with the offense. Are they going to just lean on 422 carries from Jonathan Taylor? You don't know. But if Philip Rivers is going to be in that game, there is going to be some passing going on and I don't think it's going to be big volume passing and that's where I'm going to lean on Tyler Warren. I think Tyler Warren will be his safety net. So on Warren himself. Warren has hit this six times this year. Five or more receptions, including three of his last five. Rivers, when we look at him last we saw him, he was a slight lean to throwing to tight ends. Before his retirement he was a little bit above average on his target rate to tight ends versus the league average. So that's a positive in general. Then if you go and look at the Seahawks, the Seahawks defense does a lot of things well. What it doesn't do is cover tight ends. They have a defensive grade of 31 out of 32 against tight ends so far this year. And going in to this is a stat I saw and God, I should have saved the person who put this out. This is going into last week's matchup but essentially was saying that the Seahawks were averaging almost seven targets per game around seven the most receptions around just around seven receptions and allowing the third most receiving yards. The tight ends. So tight ends are a susceptible piece for for the Seattle Seahawks and that's going to be the safety net for this offense. Plus on top of it, you know this isn't necessarily, this is more to something we'll talk about later, but I think Tyler Warren is going to be used in a lot of spots, but I think Philip Rivers is going to be looking for safety net stuff when they're trying to move the ball. When the boxes are stacked on Jonathan Taylor first down runs, which should probably happen, you know, every single play, then they're going to be forced into throwing and it's going to be short line stuff and I think that's where Tyler Warren is going to help a lot here. So five receptions from +1:30 and that's a Philip Rivers esque number because we're terrified of him. I get it. I'm jumping out on a plus number five receptions for Tyler Warren.
- [15:03]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
All right, Andrew Erickson, we're already discussed Travis Atn and what that game might look like in garbage time running out the clock. What about the Seattle Seahawks also potentially in that Mode in week 15?
- [15:14]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think that Seattle is going to destroy the Colts. I mean would he have been surprised if Daniel Jones went up to Seattle with this team and got destroyed by the Seattle Seahawks? Like no. So considering now that you have this 44 year old quarterback coming in, I just, I'm just not optimistic about this Colts offense. So I like backing the blowout type of game script with the Seattle Seahawks and that leads me to Kenneth Walker Over 57 and a half rushing yards. The Seahawks have been the run heaviest team this season calling run plays nearly 50% of their plays. Ken Walker has been much better at home than he's been on the road. He's 60 plus rushing yards in three of his last four home games. The last four running backs to face the Indianapolis Colts have given up 64 rushing yards or have had 64 or more rushing yards. Now there is a chance that the Colts do get defensive tackle DeForest Buckner back from injured reserve, but he's also missed a lot of time. He was dealing with a neck nerve injury so that's always kind of concerning about how effective he is going to be dealing with the loss of strength with so much time missed. So I'm just buying into the Seahawks laying the hammer on Indianapolis Colts I mean, Seattle has showed up big in these spots at home as heavy home favorites of touchdowns or more. They're 30 against the spread. They're also number one in the NFL in margin of victory, 17 points. So if they're killing this team, I think Kenneth Walker, yes, maybe he's not even in the game in the fourth quarter, but I think he's getting enough work and see enough explosive plays where he can get to at least 60 rushing yards. I'm take the over on Ken Walker.
- [16:43]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
All right, make sure you take a look at the Prop Ed cheat sheet every single week because that's going to give you all these props, the best lines, the projections too. So sync your sports books for free. Download the Fantasy Pros app and the Betting Pros app as you make your run to glory and fantasy make your run to glory in the betting world too. There's only a couple regular season weeks left here or if fantasy didn't work out for you, it's a perfect time. Start looking a little bit more towards the betting things and the betting Prop cheat sheet is the the tool that you all need right now. Again, passing, rushing, receiving, all the stack categories are there in the Prop Ed cheat sheet. Go to bettingpros.com props or just download the app today and start betting smarter, not harder. Next up here, Welsh we know the Cincinnati Bengals do not fare well against tight ends, so let's talk a little about Isaiah Likely and what he's likely to do in week 15.
- [17:30]
Welsh
This is the final of the series. This is our third book in the plus reception series that we're going to be running and I am all about Isaiah Likely over Mark Anderson.
- [17:39]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
I like a good trilogy Walsh, I gotta say.
- [17:40]
Welsh
Yep. And this and hopefully this trilogy is going to end better than many other trilogies. Isaiah likely receptions four plus is also plus money around plus 130 is where you're seeing it. Bengals are the worst against tight ends. We talked about Tyler Warren going up against the Seahawks. There's a dicey situation. Seahawks aren't good, but the Bengals are the worst. They grade 32 at 32 according to PFF. On average they're giving up 10 targets to tight ends over seven receptions and over 90 receiving yards. So receiving yards might be a plus that you can play on this, but I like the receptions that this big plus money here trying to go out big towards the end of the year. Likely has been the top tight end option for the Ravens over the last couple weeks with 12 targets over the last two games and he has Hit this reception yard prop in both of those games. Plus, it would have been even more had those touchdowns not been ruled out of his favor. The one that just, you know, plopped out. I, I like likely in this situation. He did this against the Bengals. He hit this prop against the Bengals. I think he is the. The big playmaking option here. His receiving yarn prop is also, again, low. It's relatively low. It's like in the 30s. But for four receptions when he's been hitting this against a Bengals team. That is Cheeks against tight ends. I'm, I'm. I'm all about Isaiah likely on the receptions.
- [18:56]
Andrew Erickson
All right.
- [18:57]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
More likely stuff later in the show, too. Andrew Erickson, let's do another tight end conversation here. Juwan Johnson, the numbers three and a half receptions for the Saints tight end. We're going over or under undertaker?
- [19:08]
Andrew Erickson
We are going over. But I do have to make one point about Welsh's cheeks reference. You know who was on the injury report with a glute injury? Mark Andrews.
- [19:17]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
Who?
- [19:17]
Andrew Erickson
Mark Andrews.
- [19:18]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
That's right.
- [19:18]
Andrew Erickson
The other Ravens tight end. So it's all coming first full circle with buns, cheeks and glutes.
- [19:24]
Welsh
We need Jake Butt. Where is he?
- [19:26]
Andrew Erickson
Where is Jake Butt?
- [19:27]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
Jake Butt. Nice. Well done. Well done, Welsh. Well, Keisha on booty, too. We can give a booty little parlay. It feels like a parlay somewhere in there. I don't know how. We got to figure it out.
- [19:35]
Andrew Erickson
I am going over with Juwan Johnson. This one just kind of stood out to me because I thought there was a lot of value on the number here. Over three and a half receptions. He's had at least four catches in every single game he's played since week seven, except for one last week. He even got to four receptions. Despite the Saints kind of dialing back the passing attack because of the weather that was being played in Tampa Bay. In the first matchup against Carolina, Johnson had four catches on four targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. So his reception prop has really been more around that four and a half number. It's down to three and a half. Just because I think that last week we didn't see a ton of passing volume from the Saints. I don't expect that necessarily carry over in dome conditions here at home for the New Orleans Saints. So I would take the over on Juwan Johnson. Three and a half receptions. He's been hitting this at a pretty high rate.
- [20:21]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
All right, we've got one more prop to go for everybody and then the touchdown calls will be upon us. So Welsh, let's finish strong here with your 49ers. Ricky Piersol, he still, he still goes there. Does he still go to San Francisco?
- [20:33]
Welsh
You wouldn't know it. This is, this is an all vibes play. So if you're looking for all the great data that's going to tell you why this is a lock in a smash. Sorry, this is me and Erickson. Me and Erickson are all vibes about this. The 49ers. I mean, since Ricky Pierce hall has come back, you wouldn't know that he's been back. He's been an absolute ghost in that offense. He has not been used whatsoever. 49ers have been trying to get their feet under them. The, the. One of the big changes here is going into the bye week and I think if you're looking to, you know, not only regroup, you're looking to retool what your offense is going to be coming out of the buy. I think one thing that is clear to them is they've got to get Ricky Pierasol involved back in the offense because prior to the injury he's hitting these props. This is a low number. We're looking at 30.5 receiving yards when this was an absolute smash every week before he ends up getting hurt. So are there great numbers on targets and everything? There's not because he hasn't been getting them. But Erickson and I both believe he is going to get involved coming out of this. Now the other side of this is taking a look at the defensive matchup. This is a great defensive matchup. Eight of the 14 weeks the Titans have given up 30 or more yards to two plus wide receivers gone up against again. This isn't like a huge, big crazy number. Marcus Harris, their best corner, you know, grades out pretty well but is likely going to be locked up against Juwan Jennings. Other corner. You're looking at bottom half, 59 out of 111 according to PFF and really, really bad safety coverage grades, which actually I like about a wide receiver that's going to come over the top, which that is Ricky Pierasol. Projections love this though. Every projection place has got him over 40 and really there's not a lot to go off of but everybody thinks we are going to get him back in this offense. I believe coming off of the buy, this clear cut thing that needs to be addressed will be and it is a really good matchup for that to happen. So super low number. Ricky Pierasol 30.5. If he doesn't hit it, he's Dead to me and I'll be over. But this is the gross sicko bet vibe bet of the week.
- [22:38]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
Those vibes really come and go quickly around here. I just gotta say Welsh. So I hope for Ricky Piersoll's sake things go all right. All right, next up here, Kyle Manangai. Look Andrew, there's another one that we've discussed on some other shows. You and I together, we're both in on guy this week the carry number is 12 and a half and I think the undertaker is going to take the over. I got a feeling about I already bet this.
- [23:00]
Welsh
I just want to point out before Ericsson even says it, me and Erickson talked about this. This is the first thing I bet this week.
- [23:04]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
If anything, save the best for last.
- [23:06]
Andrew Erickson
Let's go Andrew, because it's gonna smash. And I think it took 15 weeks but I have a full card of all overs. All my player props are over.
- [23:14]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
Yeah, that's right, you do. Holy, look at you.
- [23:17]
Andrew Erickson
This is not like an intention like I be like I gotta do all the overs. I actually liked a lot of unders in terms of the game totals this week. So go check out the best bet show with myself and Joe. But yeah, this week I'm doing all overs on the player props and this is my favorite one on the card. Kyle, man, guy going over 12 and a half carries. It's December at Soldier Field. You have a bowling ball running back in Kyle Menangai against a Browns defense that just got boat raced by Tony Pollard, someone that was left for dead on every fantasy football bench and he went off against this Browns defense. What do you think Ben Johnson's going to do when he reviews the tape and thinks yeah, I think I could probably run effectively on this Brown's defense, especially with them on the road. Malik Collins, defensive tackle, he didn't play last week. Mason Graham, their other defensive tackle, he's banged up with a rib injury. He hasn't been practicing. So I think the Bears run wild here and the guy that they feature in feed is rookie Rutgers running back Kyle Manangai. Based on how physical he is, no one's going to want to tackle this guy when it's zero degree temperatures out, especially the Browns defense on the road. So give me Minangai over 12 and a half carries again. Last four weeks he's been averaging 15 carries per game. That's the same as Deandre Swift. He actually has 14 or more in three of his last four games played. 12 plus carries in four straight games overall. So I think 12 is like the minimum for me. It wouldn't surprise me if he gets up to 20 carries in this game. Has a monster performance. So give me Kyle Manon guy, the rookie running back to smash the Browns this week.
- [24:42]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
I like it. I'm in on it. Got my non guy shares too that I drafted that I've been playing the last couple weeks. Been very happy overall with all those shares. All right, let's get to the touchdown calls and remember the touchdown score report is also available on betting pros. All you have to do is head over to bettingpros.com touchdown to review the very latest in touchdown prop analysis. Again, the touchdown stats the props to bet the odds everything is there versus the projections to help identify the very best in anytime touchdown bets only at bettingpros.com/touchdown. I'm going with two here today. I was gonna go and be fancy with the the two tight ends but the Mark Andrews injury popped up yesterday and now I'm not feeling as good about the double tight end touchdown call. So I'm just gonna stick with Isaiah likely plus 230 and then I'm gonna go with Tearoa McMillan in a game against the New Orleans Saints at plus 155. So those are pretty good numbers there. I think I can go 2 for 2 this week and I need to, I need to stop crap into bed here. I need to get forward here on this touchdown call contest got way too close here. I had a nice lead and that is disintegrated, man. I feel like, I feel like the Indianapolis Colts or me, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Welsh, how about you? Where are you going for your touchdown calls in week 15?
- [25:50]
Welsh
Yeah, that's disintegrated by the way. Like Erickson is tied with you and I was, I was far. I'm one behind both of you.
- [25:56]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
I was way far away.
- [25:58]
Welsh
I know I've caught up.
- [25:59]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
Good drama. It's good ratings for TVs.
- [26:01]
Welsh
It is pretty good. Well kind of in, in with that. I don't think I've taken a single like minus touchdown bet this entire season. I am going to this week but it's essentially like minus 105, minus 110 in any spot and I'm going to start with Travion Henderson. Just kind of looking through the card. I think there's some solid like you know, plus 140, 150 bets but I just kept staring at Travion Henderson and I couldn't get away from it. Bill's ranked 31 of 32 defensive grade against running backs specifically this according to PFF, 24 of 32 in yards after contact. They rank 31 of 32 in missed tackles and 24 of 32 on their overall defensive front. Oh by the way, the Bills have given up 16 rushing touchdowns this year to running backs and at least one rushing touchdown in all but two games. Treveon Henderson book it and then my big play, everyone's going to hate it. It's going to be gross. It's Tyler Warren. Now here's the now here's part of it though and what I said before because it didn't really account to the receptions. Not only take everything I said with Tyler Warren as far as like receptions go and Seahawks grading out horrifically five touchdowns, they've given up the tight ends but also we should be looking at Tyler Warren being used in some other spots. Guy can be a running back. I mean the quarterback thing is not going to help me if he throws a touchdown. But don't be surprised if there's you know any tush push type of situation and he runs out. You're not going to Philip Rivers do that if they do those little end around things like Tyler Warren is going to be used in other spots where they need to get creative with a 67 year old quarterback behind center. So I really like Tyler Warren on the ROI because the number is like +350. So that is super super low against a team that is bad against tight ends and a tight end that get used in other spots. So I'm very much in on a Tyler Warren touchdown.
- [27:47]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
All right Erickson you're up. Give us two tutties for week 15.
- [27:50]
Andrew Erickson
Already talked about my love for Common on guy gonna see a lot of carries, a lot of rushing yards. I think he's also going to find pay dirt just because he's really been the guy. They've focused mostly in the red zone. He actually had a two point conversion last week where the offensive line just like willed their way to push him into the end zone. I think that you see that again here with the Bears playing at home. So I like Manungai especially at the odds at plus 130. Again it's kind of a process play with me. Take home teams the lead running back in the red zone and bet them to score touchdowns because that's a most likely outcome going to happen. So manangai plus 130 and then the same thing with Zach Charbonnet I I get that he's super frustrating fantasy because he just scores a bunch of touchdowns And Ken Walker gets all the yards, but it doesn't matter. Jack Sharpening has scored in every single home game the Seahawks have played this year. Minus 105. Like, I get that it's not like the sexiest odds, but if he scores, just like with. With Welsh's pick, if Henderson scores, who cares? Like, minus 105 is fine. Like, and that's making money. You can't make money going or you can't be. You're not gonna go broke being right. So I, I like the Zach Charbonnet call because I think he's just. He's gonna score. So minus 105. I think those good odds also. Joe, too. I think the likely odds at plus 230. Like, yeah, that's. That's kind of like insane. That long.
- [29:01]
Welsh
Joe made the sheet. Joe made the sheet and then just dropped his touchdowns and didn't allow. I was 100 going likely in Warren this week. Those are my touchdowns.
- [29:09]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
Go lightly. And if he scores, you're just gonna, you know, just keep pace with me.
- [29:13]
Welsh
No, I wanted. I. I want you to be at the bottom of this list on touchdowns.
- [29:16]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
More than I might be.
- [29:17]
Welsh
Who.
- [29:18]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
Look, Isaiah likely holding touchdowns is the problem. Catching them, completing touchdowns, leading and finishing the touchdown. That's where the struggle.
- [29:27]
Welsh
He's kind of like, there's kind of like a. There's a path going. He catches one and then drops it right before the end zone. Then he catches one, gets three feet down, but it's not quite there. Like, the only path next is to have a full completion, hold it, fall on the ball and actually get a touchdown. It's the perfect ending to his story.
- [29:45]
Joey P (Joe P. Zappia)
Yeah, let's hope. Look, the Cincinnati Bengals just continue to give up points to tight end. So I'm just hoping Isaiah likely, if he's going to take advantage of that somewhere, it's going to be against the Cincinnati Bengals, but we'll see. And in the meantime, you can follow us over on Betting Pros. All of us, just download the app and search for our names. You can follow and see what we're in on this week in the NFL. And that'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh and the overtaker. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and TikTok, eddingpros and Instagram eddingprosnfl. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com bettingpros.
- [30:37]
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