Best NFL Prop Bets For Week 16 (Ep. 1912)

Summary

FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Best NFL Prop Bets For Week 16 (Ep. 1912)

Hosts: Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia) and Welsh
Date: December 20, 2025

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Overview

In this episode, Joey P. and Welsh dive into the best NFL prop bets for Week 16, focusing on player performance props (over/unders on yardage, receptions, touchdowns) rather than game outcomes. With regular co-host Andrew Erickson absent due to a power outage, the duo brings an energetic, playful tone while breaking down their favorite prop angles for the week, explaining their logic with stats, trends, and some good-natured ribbing.

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Key Discussion Points & Prop Bets

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR) – Over 83.5 Receiving Yards

Timestamp: 02:00

• Joey P. is bullish on St. Brown at home vs. Pittsburgh, pointing to how he regularly surpasses this number in Detroit.
• Confidence cited from his performances vs. Rams and Cowboys, and home splits.
• Quote: "[A]t home, he's crushing this number... this is where Jared Goff and company do their best work." (02:20)

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2. Ladd McConkey (LAC WR) – Over 46.5 Receiving Yards

Timestamp: 03:10

• Welsh targets McConkey against Dallas, noting the Cowboys' dreadful wide receiver coverage, using PFF grades as evidence.
• McConkey fits the mold of an explosive receiver who can cash this prop on one play.
• Quote: "An under 50 yard receiving yard prop for him against the Dallas Cowboys, it's a smash to me as the first one I locked in this week." (04:35)

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3. Nico Collins (HOU WR) – Over 61.5 Receiving Yards

Timestamp: 04:50

• Joey P. calls Collins a "smash" play against the Raiders, noting he's gone over in 6 of his last 7 games and is Stroud’s clear No. 1 option.
• Even with a potential blowout, Joey says Collins will be heavily involved to help establish a lead.
• Entertaining aside: Joey jokes about catching himself with the "six of seven" phrase his kids hate.
• Quote: "To get to the blowout, you gotta have some big plays..." (05:00)

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4. Devon Achane (MIA RB) – Over 27.5 Receiving Yards

Timestamp: 07:10

• Welsh likes this due to Miami's rookie QB Quinn Ewers likely needing dump-offs, and the Bengals' poor RB coverage grades.
• Achane has hit this prop in 4 of 6, and Bengals allow 45 receiving yards to RBs per game.
• Quote: "AChan has hit this in four of his last six weeks, including hitting 67 last week." (07:30)

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5. Jacoby Brissett (ARI QB) – Over 243.5 (now 248) Passing Yards

Timestamp: 10:45

• Joey P.’s favorite QB over of the week, citing Brissett’s streak (over the number every week as starter since Week 6) and the "checked-out" defenses of both Atlanta & Arizona.
• Quote: “These are two defenses... have zero to play for... tackling becomes, ‘well, I'll do my best if it's there, but I'm not hurting myself.’” (11:05)
• Joey’s pick is shaped by the soft, end-of-season vibes.

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6. J.J. McCarthy (MIN QB) – Over 13.5 Rushing Yards

Timestamp: 13:00

• Welsh explains that McCarthy is using his legs more frequently (hit this prop in 6 of 8 games).
• Against the Giants’ defense, which consistently allows QB rushing yard props, the over is favored.
• Quote: "He's going to look over at Justin Jefferson, he's going to not throw to him... and he's going to tuck it down and he's going to get this probably in two carries." (13:46)

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7. Quinn Ewers (MIA QB) – Under 191.5 Passing Yards

Timestamp: 14:25

• Joey P. is skeptical of Ewers in his NFL debut, even with a soft Bengals matchup.
• Expects the Dolphins to rely on Achane and limit Ewers’ exposure in the passing game.
• Quote: "I just don't see a word [world] where Quinn yours in his debut is going to get to 191 passing yards." (14:30)

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8. Bryce Young (CAR QB) – Over 12.5 Rushing Yards

Timestamp: 15:55

• Welsh notes Young has gone over this line in three straight games, and includes concrete projections.
• Tampa allows over 20 rushing yards per game to QBs on 5+ yards per carry.
• Quote: "We need from Bryce Young in a really important game... I think you're going to have blitzing situations where he's going to cut that ball up and go." (16:30)

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9. George Kittle (SF TE) – Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

Timestamp: 17:18

• Joey P. touts Kittle as a “smash” play with Purdy feeling confident and Kittle hitting this mark in 4 of last 5 games.
• Suggests pairing it with a touchdown and 49ers win as a juicy parlay.
• Quote: "Brock Purdy, feeling good, feeling confident. That's what you want here at this stage in the game. And George Kittle has gone over this number... since week 10." (17:22)

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10. TreVeyon Henderson (NE RB) – Over 2.5 Receptions (at +137)

Timestamp: 18:24

• Welsh likes Henderson’s target share, plus the Ravens’ poor RB coverage.
• RBs have hit this prop vs. Baltimore in 6 of the last 7 games; Henderson has gone over in 3 of last 4.
• Quote: "This is big plus money to make sure he's involved in a very, very highly competitive game. So three receptions, we need three receptions from Trayvon at +137." (19:39)

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Touchdown Calls (Anytime TD Bets)

Summary Segment: 20:22

Joey P.’s TD Calls

• Mike Evans (TB WR) at +165
• Bucky Irving (TB RB) at +140
  • Joey expects an “angry Buccaneers” effort after previous loss; both players at plus odds.
  • Quote: "I do think the angry Buccaneers show up against the Carolina Panthers. And I mean angry." (21:39)

Welsh’s TD Calls

• Travis Kelce (KC TE)
  • Safety net for Minshew, favorable matchup vs. Titans (4 TDs to TEs in last three weeks).
• George Pickens (PIT WR)
  • Better matchup if top coverage goes to CeeDee Lamb, “bounce back after two bad weeks.”
  • Odds: Kelce +185, Pickens +170
  • Quote: “Travis Kelsey I think is going to be the safety net for Minshew... George Pickens... should be the opportunity... to have a bounce back.” (22:36)

Andrew Erickson’s (texted in)

• Isaiah Likely (BAL TE) at +255
• Justin Jefferson (MIN WR) at +130
  • Welsh jokes “maybe the power is also out to his head” (24:10) since these were highly questionable picks after both disappointed recently.

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Notable Quotes & Banter

• On children’s slang:

  • "We both have like middle school age children... and they don't even do it anymore. But now it's just where they did it so much. They hate it... I do it to annoy them." – Joey P. & Welsh (06:18–06:38)

• On stat-based betting:

  • "They've got a linebacker coverage grade of 29 of 32. Defensive tackle ranking of 31 out of 32. I mean, again, like, I'm just giving you some of the rankings of like if, if I tell you what are bad defenses like, you know who they are." – Welsh (07:38)

• On the late-season angle:

  • "Defenses have zero to play for... you're going to see some of these defenses start to shut down." – Joey P. (11:00)

• On Touchdown Calls logic:

  • "We are, because of yours are yours, mine are mine. We can get Erickson in the background, maybe even while you're going where yours. I see Erickson is back alive, but he can't make the show. Maybe I can get some touchdown calls from him." – Welsh (21:00)

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Important Timestamps

• Amon-Ra St. Brown Over: 02:00
• Ladd McConkey Over: 03:10
• Nico Collins Over: 04:48
• Devon Achane Over: 07:01
• Jacoby Brissett Over: 10:41
• J.J. McCarthy Over: 12:11
• Quinn Ewers Under: 14:23
• Bryce Young Over: 15:56
• George Kittle Over: 17:16
• TreVeyon Henderson Over (Receptions): 18:24
• TD Calls Segment: 20:22

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Tone & Style

Joey P. and Welsh keep things light and jovial, peppering the conversation with jokes, child/parent anecdotes, and fantasy football war stories. Despite the banter, their analysis is sharp—leaning on matchups, player trends, and projection tools to explain each bet. Clear explanations and data-driven logic make this episode useful even for those less familiar with advanced stats.

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Summary Table: Prop Bets Discussed

| Player | Bet | Odds/Line | Analyst | Timestamp | |-----------------------|------------------------------------------|-------------|-----------|-----------| | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Over 83.5 Receiving Yards | - | Joey P. | 02:00 | | Ladd McConkey | Over 46.5 Receiving Yards | - | Welsh | 03:10 | | Nico Collins | Over 61.5 Receiving Yards | - | Joey P. | 04:48 | | Devon Achane | Over 27.5 Receiving Yards | - | Welsh | 07:01 | | Jacoby Brissett | Over 243.5 Passing Yards | - | Joey P. | 10:41 | | J.J. McCarthy | Over 13.5 Rushing Yards | - | Welsh | 12:11 | | Quinn Ewers | Under 191.5 Passing Yards | - | Joey P. | 14:23 | | Bryce Young | Over 12.5 Rushing Yards | - | Welsh | 15:56 | | George Kittle | Over 59.5 Receiving Yards | - | Joey P. | 17:16 | | TreVeyon Henderson | Over 2.5 Receptions | +137 | Welsh | 18:24 | | Mike Evans | Anytime Touchdown | +165 | Joey P. | 21:39 | | Bucky Irving | Anytime Touchdown | +140 | Joey P. | 21:39 | | Travis Kelce | Anytime Touchdown | +185 | Welsh | 22:36 | | George Pickens | Anytime Touchdown | +170 | Welsh | 22:36 | | Isaiah Likely | Anytime Touchdown | +255 | Erickson | 24:10 | | Justin Jefferson | Anytime Touchdown | +130 | Erickson | 24:10 |

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Final Thoughts

This episode is data-rich and actionable for players in fantasy and betting, with clear explanations for each prop. The hosts blend sharp analysis with lighthearted banter, making it approachable and entertaining for listeners at any experience level. Welsh and Joey’s chemistry carries the show, with recurring nods to absent co-host Andrew Erickson’s tendencies.

Perfect listen for NFL prop bettors and fantasy managers prepping for Week 16.

Transcript

[Podcast Announcer]

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[Coca-Cola Advertiser]

What a matchup we got, y'.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

All.

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[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place your bets. It is me, Joey P. Joe P. Zappia, and this is bpnfl. Time to look ahead to the props. And no, don't adjust your YouTube screens. There's no Andrew Erickson today. He had a power outage. Why? Because the guy's just too damn hot. He's just, you know, he's so good. It just blew out a whole receiver up there in the New England area. So you're left with myself and the Welsh today to pick up the pieces for week 16 in the prop department. And I think it's really convenient. Welsh. And all of a sudden we're tied in touchdown calls and his power is out and he can't record today. Don't you think that's fishy?

[Welsh]

I mean, yeah, like, I was over 500. He wasn't. I tied the touchdown calls. Very convenient that the power was out. It's like 70 degrees here in Arizona. So, like, it's always a lie to me anytime you guys are like, oh, yeah, it's really stormy. And I'm like, it's pretty great out. I'm wearing my shorts today, so I don't know. But yeah, touchdowns are tied. I had a plus week. We're over 500 as we get whimpered out to the end of the season with no Erickson.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

We see you, Ericson with no Erickson to be found anywhere. So. But that's all right. Like, Andrew more disappointed about not being on the show today than anybody. So we shout out, hopefully he'll get the power back soon. This is what happens, is the fun of homeownership. But we're going to own our picks here going forward this week. And I'm going to start with one of my favorite Detroit Lions. That's right, I'm on Ross St. Brown at home where he does his best work. The number is pretty high up there. It's 83 and a half right now in terms of those receiving yards. And Welsh, I'm going over this one. I actually locked this in at 81 and a half before. It grew a little bit over the last couple days, but I see it's growing in some spots to 83 and a half. I still feel comfortable. He's gone over this against the Rams last week, he went over this against Dallas the week before. Then of course he was hurt the week of Thanksgiving. But the week before this against the Giants as well. When this guy is at home, he's crushing this number. At home against Tampa, at home against Minnesota, this is where Jared Goff and company do their best work. And I think in this contest here coming up, I feel very confident against the Steelers that the Detroit Lions will find a way to win this football game and that you will have Amon Ross abround being a big part of it. So I'm going over here. Welsh, where's your first pick going for week 16?

[Welsh]

We're going to the wide receiver market as well. I was actually kind of bouncing around both of these wide outs. This is one me and Erickson probably would have fought over because I know Erickson's in this spot. I'm going with lad McConkey and we are taking his receiving yards and going over it is a low total this week. Be honest, all those receivers are. Keenan Allen was the one I was looking at. But then I got a hold of lad McConkey's and went, oh, we're going to have to take it because it's 46.5. This is against the Dallas Cowboys, who ranked 24 of 32, 32 in wide receiver overall PFF. This is according to PFF on their coverage. They've got two unranked PFF corners right there. And Revel, who is the one named corner they put up over on PFF is literally ranked 112 of 112. So all that is telling you is it's like overall like really bad coverage. Cowboys they have and you knew that by the way. Cowboys have given this up to a wide receiver, this receiving prop in eight straight games. Projections like this BFF has got this around 56. Fantasy pros projections agree. Betting pros projections agree. This is all a smash over even in like the fantasy rankings. We're looking at lad McConkey and we're looking at this situation. You look at the implied total as well against this defense it's kind of the claim we put and you know, sometimes it just balls out, sometimes it fails like a Justin Jefferson. But like, you look at this secondary and you go, oh my gosh, if they're going to be passing the ball, you see high implied totals receiving, receiving yard props on guys that can do it in one play. Lad McConkey fits every single one of these pieces of narrative. So an under 50 yard receiving yard prop for him against the Dallas Cowboys. It's a smash to me as the first one I locked in this week. Lad McConkey 46.5 over receiving yards.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

All right, so lad is in and over. Next one for me is also an over Nico Collins, 61 and a half receiving yards. Now, Nico Collins has gone over this mark in six of his last seven games. And I understand there's some concern this week because you got a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders that feels like a blowout. But to get to the blowout, you got to have some big plays and some yards and you got to have some points. And the Houston Texans right now are feeling it. They look so much better on offense these last couple weeks. C.J. stroud's been back healthy. Things are really starting to click for this team overall. They're getting red hot at the exact right time, too. They are very dangerous. They Raiders of a defense that hasn't been good all year and a defense, which is going to be a theme of my picks today, a defense that is looking ahead to the off season, let's put it that way. They're not trying to stop anybody. They got their doors blown off against the Eagles last week. And offense, it has its own issues. But to me, I don't think the Raiders are going to put up much fight here against C.J. stroud and Nico. In fact, I don't have a problem if you want to pair some CJ Stroud numbers along with Nico and do a little parlay duo bet there. I think that's certainly in the cards. But for me, this is a smash on Nico. He's the number one target. He's the number one guy. Sure, he'll spread the ball around a little bit. Dalton Schultz and maybe one or two other guys. But for me, it's gonna be another day for Nico and we've seen that many times here in the last six, seven weeks. And I can't believe I just did the six, seven thing. I hate myself. Take it away for the next pick. It's almost 2026. That's never going to be uttered Again on the show, I promise you.

[Welsh]

Yeah, you got to train yourself out of it. Like, I fell into it, but, like, I ignore all the opportunities.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

Well, it's hard because we both have like middle school age children, so, you know, and they don't even do it anymore. But now it's just where they did it so much.

[Welsh]

They hate it.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

It's just like they hate it now. Yeah, I do.

[Welsh]

I do it to annoy them. I agree with you. I do this to annoy them.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

They hate it.

[Welsh]

Yeah. Yeah. Like they'll just walk in the car and I'll just be like six and they'll just be like, dude. And I'm like, gotcha. I'm like, that's how it feels now.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

We've killed it.

[Welsh]

Get out of here.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

How we. This is how we get rid of things we don't like by starting to do them.

[Welsh]

Yeah, but then you just made everybody not like this show.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

Well, it's like that south park episode where the parents started getting to Pokemon so the kids wouldn't be into Pokemon anymore. Yeah. Back in the day. This is. This is the path. They showed us the path as parents.

[Welsh]

We're just asking you to be better, Joe. Don't bring it here. Don't bring your home to work here.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

No promises. Okay. Pick number two.

[Welsh]

Yeah, pick number two. I am. It's actually funny. I think you've got one that's kind of attached to this A little bit later with Quinn Ewers going in at quarterback. One thing, as soon as Quinn, yours came in at quarterback, obviously, like, we have questions. We're not 100% sure what this offense is going to look like, but we all kind of assume it's not going to be great. But immediately the thing that I look at is we are going to have to play safety net stuff with him. And the safety net goes to Devon H.N. and Devon Achan loves to get the ball out of the backfield. Receiving, obviously rushing as well. So we're going to look at his receiving yards at 27.5 and we are taking the over. Achan has hit this in four of his last six weeks, including going over and hitting 67 last week. I didn't do it. Bengals, who they're going up against are averaging 45 yards receiving per game to running backs so far this year. They also on their pff, actual rank as far as coverage to running backs out of the backfield, 28 of 32. They've got a linebacker coverage grade of 29 of 32. Defensive tackle ranking of 31 out of 32. I mean, again, like, I'm just giving you some of the rankings of like if, if I tell you what are bad defenses like, you know who they are. Bengals have obviously gotten a little bit but this is a spot with a rookie young quarterback who's going to play the dump off game. I don't think a dump off game is going to be Darren Waller who kind of plays that wide out spot. I don't think that's going to be a ton of Jalen Waddle. I do think it's going to be Achan. Get the ball in Achan's hands. Projections again. They like this. Most all spots have him over 30. So I'm going 27 point, 27.5 receiving yards over for Devon HN with Quinn Ewers as his quarterback.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

I like it. Welsh. I like where your head's at. Nate Chan's gonna be that guy. So we'll see what Ken yours has up his sleeve in a few days from now. But before we get to that wager, I want to remind everybody about our sponsor. And that is Hard Rock Bet this holiday season. That's the place where you should be betting all of your sports. And what I love is the new for you page. They've got their recommends picks based on my favorites, my favorite teams, my favorite players, my favorite leagues to bet on. And I open the app, I go to the for you page and I find the bed I like and boom, that's it. That's all I do. My bet is in and I can go back to enjoying the holidays and sipping eggnog out of my moose mug because I have one just like Clark Griswold. And you could sign up today at Hard Rock bet with five bucks and you get 150 in bonus bets when you win and your winnings as well. Now that's what I call spraying the holiday cheer. Plus, Hard Rock Bet fills your stocking every single day with new promos. So whenever you're listening, just download the app. Check out what they've got in store for you because every day it's a new present under the tree. Download the Hard Rock BET sportsbook app today and enjoy your holiday season by making a little extra green. That's right. That's what we're doing right now. Payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC and other states must be 21 plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia play terms and conditions apply. Concern about gambling in Florida, call 1833 play wise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.

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[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

All right, next up here, pick number three. Welsh has a quarterback. I have a quarterback. I'm going with my boy, Jacoby Brissette. Why? Well, because it never fails, that's why. Because Jacoby Brissette just keeps on going. And I gotta say, it's. It's one of the fun bright spots of 2025. There's been a lot of injuries, a lot of disappointment, and I locked this number in earlier in the week at 243 and a half. I see it's moving a little bit here in some of the markets up, and I'm still okay with why, because these are two defenses now in this game. It's my favorite over of the week as well. The Atlanta Falcons and the Arizona Cardinals. These defenses have zero to play for. The tackling becomes kind of like, well, I'll do my best if it's there, but I'm not hurting myself because I've got an off season staring me in the face in a couple weeks, and you're going to see some of these defenses start to shut down. They had a fun, emotional game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. Okay, cool. That was just fun. You take out your division opponent, there's still nothing to play for right now. And I think this one's actually going to be a surprise in total, with two defenses that, A, haven't played very well most of the season and B, have nothing to play for. So Jacoby Brissette, let's go over and just for S's and G's, he has gone over this mark. Welsh every single week, is the starter every single week since week six, he continues to go over this mark. And even if you raise it up to 248, he's still going over this mark. So Jacoby Brissette, I'm sorry, I didn't believe in you right away, but I am a believer. And now I'm an investor as well. You've got a quarterback investment. Welsh. Talk to us about JJ McCarthy this.

[Welsh]

Week, by the way. You were like. You're like, dory. He's like, just keep throwing. Just keep throwing, throwing, throwing.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

Why not? Why not? And the Michael Wilson stuff, like, seriously, I mean, you're out there in Arizona has been. I know they're. They're not a good football team.

[Welsh]

Nope.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

But they've got to be pleased with Jacoby Brissette out there. Yeah.

[Welsh]

They're more. Everyone's disgusted with Kyler Murray. I'm not, as everybody knows I am. I'm a 49ers fan. I am not a Cardinals fan. So I know enemy territory here. But they all just hate Kyler Murray. Everybody's down on Marvin Harrison. No one knows what to do with guys like Brissette. Michael Wilson, us as fantasy owners are not attached to the team. We do, we play them. So I'm with you on the Jacoby Brissette. That was one I was taking a look at. Yeah, I do have a quarterback. This is not a quarterback that I am like a huge fan of. But I'm taking the angle as this guy has gotten better, that moves away from Justin Jefferson. I can promise you. If Erickson were here, Erickson was tempted to play the latter game with Justin Jefferson. I have been screaming with Scott Bogman for the last pretty much 15 days about Justin Jefferson, and I have been right at every moment. He's still screaming about this week is going to be the week. Okay, that's fine. J.J. mcCarthy has looked better, so I want to be a little bit invested and take it. But it's not going to have anything to do with the passing game and have nothing to do with Justin Jefferson. Got to do with the rushing side. His rushing yard prop, J.J. mcCarthy is at 13.5. He has hit this in two straight weeks in six of eight games he has played this season. He's done this going up against the Giants, just in general bad against the run. They are giving up on average 25 yards rushing. Two quarterbacks on the year, and they have given this up in every single game to a quarterback but three all season. Projections like this J.J. mcCarthy, he's going to look over at Justin Jefferson. He's going to not throw to him because that's the best thing he can do in his game. And he's going to tuck it down and he's going to get this probably in two carries. So I really like this for McCarthy, who does like to take the ball down a little bit, maybe sees a little bit of a blitz. But J.J. mcCarthy, 13.5 rushing yards. This is my favorite way to be invested in the Vikings against the Giants this week.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

I like it. I like where your head's at with it. All right, let's get to the next one here. And it is my only under of the week that I'm picking. Of the five picks, it's the under on Quinn yours, 191 1/2 passing yards. You can find this on betting pros. And look, this is why you use the prop bet cheat sheet. This is why you go to bettingpros.com props. You download the app, you look for all the help here with the projections because I just don't see a word where Quinn yores in his debut is is going to get to 191 passing years. I just don't think that's a smart path to victory here for the Miami Dolphins. Now look, Quinn yours. I watched a bunch in Texas over the years and he is capable, but I just don't know what he's going to be able to do at the NFL level. Now the good thing is he's going against the Cincinnati Bengals. Now, I understand there's going to be a lot of people that will look at that matchup and say, well, Cincinnati Bengals, like of course we're going to go ahead and we'll take the over on that. I think that's a little trappy. It's his first game. I think he had a lot of Devon Hn in this contest. I think you run the football, you try to limit the exposure a little bit despite the fact that it's the Bengals. And frankly, you know, I still think that Quinn yours went where he went in the draft for a reason. And this is just them evaluating the roster talent. Why Zach Wilson's not playing, I don't understand because it seems like that would be an interesting guy in this Mike McDaniel offense. But no, we're going to Quinn yours instead. And I just think this is a big trap. People see Cincinnati, they get excited. Oh, it's something new. Let's go, let's go bet on it. I think it's going to be disappointing. I think it's going to be something more in that 170 range, if that, even with Cincinnati on the other side. So give me the under here in that one. Welsh, as we continue on here, what is your next bet here for Week 16?

[Welsh]

Got another quarterback rushing prop that we're going to dive into. Haven't done a ton of those this year. It definitely is one of those where you love that edge. It's like running back, receiving yards, quarterback rushing yards. But there's two that just really jump out to me this week. J.J. mcCarthy was number one. Number two was Bryce Young. Bryce Young's rushing yards are set at 12.5 and we are taking the over. He has hit this in three straight weeks. He is averaged around five carries per game during that span of the last three weeks where he's really started to run the ball a little bit more. The Bucks are averaging over four carries and 20 plus rushing yards to quarterbacks on the year. And this is the more important one. They're averaging over five yards per carry to those quarterbacks. So if you're looking at the even four to five range at the five yards per carry, three carries, we can lock this down. Projections, they've got the lean kind of across the board, all the projections. Anywhere between 15 and 17. That number is coming in at 13 yards. We need from Bryce Young in a really important game as well where I think you're going to look to attack Bryce Young. I think you're going to have blitzing situations where he is going to cut that ball up and go. So Bryce Young rushing yards. We're taking the over at 12.5.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

I love these last picks that we're going to do here because I have a guy from your favorite team and you have a guy from my favorite team. This is beautiful. So this is. We're switching homerisms here.

[Welsh]

Yep.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

I love George Kittle this week. I'm going to talk about this at length on the Monday Night Football show. But the 59 and a half receiving yards I think is a absolute smash. Brock Purdy, feeling good, feeling confident. That's what you want here at this stage in the game. And George Kittle has gone over this number of 59 and a half since week 10. Smash. Week 11 did it. Week 12, did it. Week 13, week 14 off, couldn't do it, but he wanted to. And then week 15. So the trend line is here, the baseline is here. In fact, the number is set in some spaces as high as 50. Excuse me, 62 and a half. But you can find this over on Betting Pros right now at 59 and a half. And I would take that one obviously because you're giving yourself a couple more yards. That's all you need. I even like pairing this with a touchdown as well. With the 49ers to win. You put that little parlay. You're getting almost three to one in that action. So for me, George Kittle is that guy. Look, the Colts gave it everything they had last week. I think this week will be a little bit trickier for them. Second week of Philip Rivers. I think more exposure for Phil Rivers is not a great thing for him. So I like your 49ers to win this football game and I like George Kittle to be a big part of it. Welsh, you like my guy Travion Henderson this week? Tell everybody why I do.

[Welsh]

Well, Travy and I had as a touchdown call last week and that was good. I also kind of went ballistic last week with my plus money reception. Props one I think. Well, actually one hit one smashed one. I was in the right logic, but Philip Rivers is a quarterback and one was embarrassingly stupid. So we, we had to go down the market again. Going to be honest with you, quietly just not telling anybody else. I still do like the Tyler Warren one. Again, I'm kind of a masochist to that against the Niners, but I didn't pick that one. This is the one that jumped out to me talking about that receiving yard edge you get out of running backs. Travion Henderson 2.5 over on his reception. So three receptions, it's plus 137 is the number I got. He's hit this number of receptions in three of his last four games. Running backs have hit this prop against The Ravens in six of their last seven games and running backs on average are seeing almost seven targets and six catches for over 40 yards against the Ravens. Now one of the thing that is baked into this, it's almost the exact same number for Ramondra Stevenson because we know this can go in either side sometimes. Ramandre has those big breakout ones. We know his snaps are super annoying, but what we've seen with Trevon Henderson is when he is out there, he's getting the ball in some capacity. So if this is a competitive game, this kind of can work in the favor. Especially if they're not able to run the ball for Trayvon to see some more pass attempts. Also running back coverage grade Baltimore ranks 31 of 32. So this is not their bright spot now. So the scary part is if you know this does become one of those stupid Ramandre things. But I love this for Trayvon. I kind of laid this out. This is big plus money to make sure he's involved in a very, very highly competitive game. So three receptions, we need three receptions from Trayvon at +137. Probably my best return bet of the week. I think the first one I gave you is probably my favorite. This one is number two.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

All right, there you have it. And we're going to call some touchdowns too, because it is tight right now. We are tied three way tie on the last show of the year here for us. Oh, my goodness. Because remember, we'll be here for the playoffs, but this is the regular season calling it next week with everything being shortened. We're going to be a little bit early with best bets for you, just like we did on the Thanksgiving week. We're going to have everything ahead of time for you. So this is the last chance for us to kind of make some picks here. And mine can count for Andrew Erickson. So we'll see if they're good. They count if they're, if they're, if they're bad, they count for Andrew Erickson, right? Welsh, that's what you want, right?

[Welsh]

Because I think, I think what we're at here is because, like what you're alluding to is I'm not here for the next two shows for the regular season. We can let Ericsson maybe give a touchdown call to count for this one and then we've got to come back into the playoffs when we're all back together and then we'll kind of tie in the playoffs to put a bow on the season here because we are, because of yours are yours, mine are mine. We can get Erickson in the background, maybe even while you're going where yours. I see Erickson is back alive, but he can't make the show. Maybe I can get some touchdown calls from him. But we will count. We will, we will hold his feet to the fire for the touchdowns.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

All right, well, if you need help making touchdown calls, make sure you go to bettingpros.com touchdown to find the best projections to identify the very best at anytime. Touchdown bets. Right here on Betting pros. Again, the latest touchdown prop analysis is here for you to help with your touchdown score report on betting pros. For me, I'm going with the same team in the same game. A little different strategy. I do think the angry Buccaneers show up against the Carolina Panthers. And I mean angry. I watched them after that press conference. I watched Mike Evans throwing helmets around in the tunnel. I feel it. I feel that Tampa is pissed off. I think they're going to take it out on the Carolina Panthers this week. They should have beaten the Atlanta Falcons. They should have won a lot of games. They're finally getting healthy. Mike Evans plus 165 to score a touchdown. Bucky Irving plus 140 both plus money to score a touchdown. All the bucks to hopefully win the regular season. Touchdown call here. Welsh, where are you going for your TD calls this week?

[Welsh]

I wanted that Bucky one. You got the Bucky one early. I actually started to write it and then I looked at the sheet and I saw you had it and I was like, dang it. I really like the Bucky Irving one. Specifically, I think that plus money is just too high. So that's a great call. My touchdown calls of the week. This might be ugly because you got Gardner Minshew at quarterback, but gimme Travis Kelsey. Travis Kelsey I think is going to be the safety net for Minshew. They've got a plus matchup. I know everybody's like, oh, they're going to pack it in, they're going to pack it in. But I think Minshew is going to be looking Kelsey's way a lot. And also you got the proto issues with Rasheed Rice. I really like him on this spot. And four touchdowns have been given up to tight ends over the last three weeks against the Titans. So I like that. And then this one, there's a little vibe feel on it, but I'm going with George Pickens. Obviously this is like a tougher matchup, but the top corner coverage is going to be put to CD Lam, which gives kind of like median coverage grades. As far as corners go to George Pickens, that's a much better matchup. PFF is actually giving it the good rating and they've got like, you know, the scale. So this is a pretty good spot. Especially again, you go back to like implied totals for this game. If there's going to be points being scored and Dak Prescott is going to still thrive and live and be a top 10 quarterback. He's going to have to throw the ball. And if Lamb is going to be shut down, that should be the opportunity for our dear friend George Pickens to have a bounce back after two bad weeks. So I'm going to go with the George Pickens and Travis Kelce calls. Not like my Loveland call. I think I hit last week, which is a three to one. These are both like, you know, I think one and a half or like 1.6 to one. But I'm trying to get this touchdown calls. Like you said, this is a tie game and I don't know if you see it. We do have some Ericsson touchdown Calls. You want to hit those?

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

No, I can't see it so.

[Welsh]

Oh, I can. Okay. Yeah. I'm not going to give his analysis, but he did give us two. He is an insane person. And maybe this is because the power was out. Maybe the power is also out to his head because he's going with one. Isaiah likely as a touchdown call. I'm not sure I see what the odds are, but I believe that's a close to three to one. And I warned you guys, he's going Justin Jefferson because of course he is. Him and Bogman are in the same. I know what I hope they're right because if Justin Jefferson goes off, I'm hitting the championship this coming week. But he is not consistently. Ericsson is locking in Justin Jefferson and Isaiah likely. The two biggest disappointments are probably knock people out from last week are going to have bounce backs and that is his picks and we are all tied up and we'll see how it goes into the playoffs.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

Well, I see likely is it plus 255. So that's a big return one.

[Welsh]

Yeah, that's the biggest return I think of all of ours that we have.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

Here because I think the football that's asking a lot. And then Justin Jefferson plus 130, which is still, you know, pretty good. I mean Justin Jefferson's a guy that we're used to sometimes getting around that, you know, minus money.

[Welsh]

That's actually he's got the highest and the lowest odds of both of our touchdowns because Kelsey is 185 and I, I think I forgot to write it down, but I think pickens was like 170 or something. So he's got the highest and lowest here and 170.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

I got it in there for all.

[Welsh]

Right, there you go.

[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

A lot of good touchdown calls. You can follow us over on Betting Pros. Download the app that's smarter, not harder. Use all the tools. Talk about the prop ed cheat sheet, talk about the tracking. It's all there for you. And of course, the college football playoffs are starting this weekend. We've got regular season NFL still going and then the NFL playoffs will be here before you know it. And that'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh and a powerless Andrew Erickson. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and TikTok edding pros and Instagram ettingprosnfl. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com bettingpros.

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[Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia)]

All.

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