FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Best NFL Prop Bets For Week 16 (Ep. 1912)

Hosts: Joey P. (Joe P. Zappia) and Welsh
Date: December 20, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Joey P. and Welsh dive into the best NFL prop bets for Week 16, focusing on player performance props (over/unders on yardage, receptions, touchdowns) rather than game outcomes. With regular co-host Andrew Erickson absent due to a power outage, the duo brings an energetic, playful tone while breaking down their favorite prop angles for the week, explaining their logic with stats, trends, and some good-natured ribbing.

Key Discussion Points & Prop Bets

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR) – Over 83.5 Receiving Yards

Timestamp: 02:00

• Joey P. is bullish on St. Brown at home vs. Pittsburgh, pointing to how he regularly surpasses this number in Detroit.
• Confidence cited from his performances vs. Rams and Cowboys, and home splits.
• Quote: "[A]t home, he's crushing this number... this is where Jared Goff and company do their best work." (02:20)

2. Ladd McConkey (LAC WR) – Over 46.5 Receiving Yards

Timestamp: 03:10

• Welsh targets McConkey against Dallas, noting the Cowboys' dreadful wide receiver coverage, using PFF grades as evidence.
• McConkey fits the mold of an explosive receiver who can cash this prop on one play.
• Quote: "An under 50 yard receiving yard prop for him against the Dallas Cowboys, it's a smash to me as the first one I locked in this week." (04:35)

3. Nico Collins (HOU WR) – Over 61.5 Receiving Yards

Timestamp: 04:50

• Joey P. calls Collins a "smash" play against the Raiders, noting he's gone over in 6 of his last 7 games and is Stroud’s clear No. 1 option.
• Even with a potential blowout, Joey says Collins will be heavily involved to help establish a lead.
• Entertaining aside: Joey jokes about catching himself with the "six of seven" phrase his kids hate.
• Quote: "To get to the blowout, you gotta have some big plays..." (05:00)

4. Devon Achane (MIA RB) – Over 27.5 Receiving Yards

Timestamp: 07:10

• Welsh likes this due to Miami's rookie QB Quinn Ewers likely needing dump-offs, and the Bengals' poor RB coverage grades.
• Achane has hit this prop in 4 of 6, and Bengals allow 45 receiving yards to RBs per game.
• Quote: "AChan has hit this in four of his last six weeks, including hitting 67 last week." (07:30)

5. Jacoby Brissett (ARI QB) – Over 243.5 (now 248) Passing Yards

Timestamp: 10:45

• Joey P.’s favorite QB over of the week, citing Brissett’s streak (over the number every week as starter since Week 6) and the "checked-out" defenses of both Atlanta & Arizona.
• Quote: “These are two defenses... have zero to play for... tackling becomes, ‘well, I'll do my best if it's there, but I'm not hurting myself.’” (11:05)
• Joey’s pick is shaped by the soft, end-of-season vibes.

6. J.J. McCarthy (MIN QB) – Over 13.5 Rushing Yards

Timestamp: 13:00

• Welsh explains that McCarthy is using his legs more frequently (hit this prop in 6 of 8 games).
• Against the Giants’ defense, which consistently allows QB rushing yard props, the over is favored.
• Quote: "He's going to look over at Justin Jefferson, he's going to not throw to him... and he's going to tuck it down and he's going to get this probably in two carries." (13:46)

7. Quinn Ewers (MIA QB) – Under 191.5 Passing Yards

Timestamp: 14:25

• Joey P. is skeptical of Ewers in his NFL debut, even with a soft Bengals matchup.
• Expects the Dolphins to rely on Achane and limit Ewers’ exposure in the passing game.
• Quote: "I just don't see a word [world] where Quinn yours in his debut is going to get to 191 passing yards." (14:30)

8. Bryce Young (CAR QB) – Over 12.5 Rushing Yards

Timestamp: 15:55

• Welsh notes Young has gone over this line in three straight games, and includes concrete projections.
• Tampa allows over 20 rushing yards per game to QBs on 5+ yards per carry.
• Quote: "We need from Bryce Young in a really important game... I think you're going to have blitzing situations where he's going to cut that ball up and go." (16:30)

9. George Kittle (SF TE) – Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

Timestamp: 17:18

• Joey P. touts Kittle as a “smash” play with Purdy feeling confident and Kittle hitting this mark in 4 of last 5 games.
• Suggests pairing it with a touchdown and 49ers win as a juicy parlay.
• Quote: "Brock Purdy, feeling good, feeling confident. That's what you want here at this stage in the game. And George Kittle has gone over this number... since week 10." (17:22)

10. TreVeyon Henderson (NE RB) – Over 2.5 Receptions (at +137)

Timestamp: 18:24

• Welsh likes Henderson’s target share, plus the Ravens’ poor RB coverage.
• RBs have hit this prop vs. Baltimore in 6 of the last 7 games; Henderson has gone over in 3 of last 4.
• Quote: "This is big plus money to make sure he's involved in a very, very highly competitive game. So three receptions, we need three receptions from Trayvon at +137." (19:39)

Touchdown Calls (Anytime TD Bets)

Summary Segment: 20:22

Joey P.’s TD Calls

• Mike Evans (TB WR) at +165
• Bucky Irving (TB RB) at +140
  • Joey expects an “angry Buccaneers” effort after previous loss; both players at plus odds.
  • Quote: "I do think the angry Buccaneers show up against the Carolina Panthers. And I mean angry." (21:39)

Welsh’s TD Calls

• Travis Kelce (KC TE)
  • Safety net for Minshew, favorable matchup vs. Titans (4 TDs to TEs in last three weeks).
• George Pickens (PIT WR)
  • Better matchup if top coverage goes to CeeDee Lamb, “bounce back after two bad weeks.”
  • Odds: Kelce +185, Pickens +170
  • Quote: “Travis Kelsey I think is going to be the safety net for Minshew... George Pickens... should be the opportunity... to have a bounce back.” (22:36)

Andrew Erickson’s (texted in)

• Isaiah Likely (BAL TE) at +255
• Justin Jefferson (MIN WR) at +130
  • Welsh jokes “maybe the power is also out to his head” (24:10) since these were highly questionable picks after both disappointed recently.

Notable Quotes & Banter

• On children’s slang:

  • "We both have like middle school age children... and they don't even do it anymore. But now it's just where they did it so much. They hate it... I do it to annoy them." – Joey P. & Welsh (06:18–06:38)

• On stat-based betting:

  • "They've got a linebacker coverage grade of 29 of 32. Defensive tackle ranking of 31 out of 32. I mean, again, like, I'm just giving you some of the rankings of like if, if I tell you what are bad defenses like, you know who they are." – Welsh (07:38)

• On the late-season angle:

  • "Defenses have zero to play for... you're going to see some of these defenses start to shut down." – Joey P. (11:00)

• On Touchdown Calls logic:

  • "We are, because of yours are yours, mine are mine. We can get Erickson in the background, maybe even while you're going where yours. I see Erickson is back alive, but he can't make the show. Maybe I can get some touchdown calls from him." – Welsh (21:00)

Important Timestamps

• Amon-Ra St. Brown Over: 02:00
• Ladd McConkey Over: 03:10
• Nico Collins Over: 04:48
• Devon Achane Over: 07:01
• Jacoby Brissett Over: 10:41
• J.J. McCarthy Over: 12:11
• Quinn Ewers Under: 14:23
• Bryce Young Over: 15:56
• George Kittle Over: 17:16
• TreVeyon Henderson Over (Receptions): 18:24
• TD Calls Segment: 20:22

Tone & Style

Joey P. and Welsh keep things light and jovial, peppering the conversation with jokes, child/parent anecdotes, and fantasy football war stories. Despite the banter, their analysis is sharp—leaning on matchups, player trends, and projection tools to explain each bet. Clear explanations and data-driven logic make this episode useful even for those less familiar with advanced stats.

Summary Table: Prop Bets Discussed

| Player | Bet | Odds/Line | Analyst | Timestamp | |-----------------------|------------------------------------------|-------------|-----------|-----------| | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Over 83.5 Receiving Yards | - | Joey P. | 02:00 | | Ladd McConkey | Over 46.5 Receiving Yards | - | Welsh | 03:10 | | Nico Collins | Over 61.5 Receiving Yards | - | Joey P. | 04:48 | | Devon Achane | Over 27.5 Receiving Yards | - | Welsh | 07:01 | | Jacoby Brissett | Over 243.5 Passing Yards | - | Joey P. | 10:41 | | J.J. McCarthy | Over 13.5 Rushing Yards | - | Welsh | 12:11 | | Quinn Ewers | Under 191.5 Passing Yards | - | Joey P. | 14:23 | | Bryce Young | Over 12.5 Rushing Yards | - | Welsh | 15:56 | | George Kittle | Over 59.5 Receiving Yards | - | Joey P. | 17:16 | | TreVeyon Henderson | Over 2.5 Receptions | +137 | Welsh | 18:24 | | Mike Evans | Anytime Touchdown | +165 | Joey P. | 21:39 | | Bucky Irving | Anytime Touchdown | +140 | Joey P. | 21:39 | | Travis Kelce | Anytime Touchdown | +185 | Welsh | 22:36 | | George Pickens | Anytime Touchdown | +170 | Welsh | 22:36 | | Isaiah Likely | Anytime Touchdown | +255 | Erickson | 24:10 | | Justin Jefferson | Anytime Touchdown | +130 | Erickson | 24:10 |

Final Thoughts

This episode is data-rich and actionable for players in fantasy and betting, with clear explanations for each prop. The hosts blend sharp analysis with lighthearted banter, making it approachable and entertaining for listeners at any experience level. Welsh and Joey’s chemistry carries the show, with recurring nods to absent co-host Andrew Erickson’s tendencies.

Perfect listen for NFL prop bettors and fantasy managers prepping for Week 16.