FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast
Episode: Biggest Fantasy Football Takeaways For EVERY AFC West Team (Ep. 1929)
Release Date: January 9, 2026
Hosts: Ryan Warmley, Andrew Erickson, Jake Seeley (The Athletic)

Episode Overview

This episode wraps up the divisional fantasy football takeaways series by zeroing in on the AFC West. Hosts Ryan, Andrew, and Jake break down what fantasy managers should remember from the 2025 season for each team in the division: the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Las Vegas Raiders. The analysis covers trends, coaching impacts, player outlooks, roster construction, and actionable strategies for 2026 drafts.

Denver Broncos

Main Theme:
"Sean Payton will always do Sean Payton things—unpredictability and committee usage is here to stay."

Key Points & Insights

• Coaching Consistency and Frustration:

  • Sean Payton’s history from New Orleans has replicated in Denver: rotating multiple RBs, unpredictable WR usage, and little matchup consistency.
    • "Stop expecting Sean Payton to be anything but Sean Payton because Payton is going to Payton… this is what Payton does. Payton uses everybody up and down his roster." (Jake, 01:13)
  • Fantasy managers chase hot names but are rewarded with frustration due to role shifts and “noise” players who only pop up occasionally.

• Caution With Coach Speak:

  • Don’t trust offseason hype, especially claims about increased roles for certain players.
    • "Look, Sean Payton… cannot be trusted when it comes to workload. When it comes to player usage, he's a guy that says one thing." (Andrew, 03:06)
    • Example: Marvin Mims was repeatedly hyped but often fifth in WR routes run.

• Who Can You Actually Trust?

  • RJ Harvey emerges as a legitimate RB2, but it took injuries and time to get there.
  • Courtland Sutton as a solid WR2, but beyond that, it’s a fantasy crapshoot.
  • Only 2 to 3 possible reliable fantasy pieces (Harvey, Sutton, Bo Nix in superflex).

Notable Quotes

• "When in doubt, don’t trust Sean Payton for fantasy football." (Andrew, 03:06)
• "You probably get two, maybe three if you want to include Bo Nix at quarterback… fantasy pieces out of this roster." (Jake, 02:47)

Timestamps

• [01:13] Jake’s Takeaway: Sean Payton’s Unpredictability
• [03:06] Andrew’s Confirmation & Advice on Coach Speak
• [05:16] Erickson on RJ Harvey’s 2026 Draft Range

Los Angeles Chargers

Main Theme:
"Despite a rough 2025, this is an ascending offense to buy into—bet on health, not last year’s bottom lines."

Key Points & Insights

• 2025 Wasn’t the Full Picture:

  • Injuries (especially offensive line, Justin Herbert’s hand) skewed results.
    • "I just don't want to hold the performances from these players when they were playing behind a patchwork offensive line against them." (Andrew, 08:58)
  • When healthy, playmakers in the offense flashed (Ladd McConkey, Gadson, Quentin Johnston mini-breakout).

• Reasons for Optimism in 2026:

  • Assuming improved OL health and possible key FA/trade additions, this unit has top-5 upside under Herbert.
    • "Back in; buy low on Ladd McConkey, give me Amarian Hampton… I'm going to want a part of and I can see this being a potential top five offense next year." (Jake, 06:22)

• Skill Players Worth Targeting:

  • Ladd McConkey (especially over similar WRs like Zay Flowers), Amarian Hampton as possible workhorse, and a belief that Herbert can return to form.
  • Caution: If new WR acquisitions muddy the pecking order, the value could be diluted.

• Staff Usage Trends:

  • Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh are not death sentences for fantasy output; the Chargers passed even near the goal line.
    • "They were ninth in the league in passing and goal to go." (Jake, 10:49)

Notable Quotes

• "There's pieces up and down this roster that I'm going to want a part of and I can see this being a potential top five offense next year." (Jake, 06:22)
• "I think that we're going to get a discount just because the season long stats are not going to look that great." (Andrew, 09:38)

Timestamps

• [06:22] Jake’s Outlook: Buy Chargers Offense for 2026
• [08:58] Erickson: Don’t Blame Players for Being in a Broken Offense
• [10:49] Jake: Passing Tendency Still Exists Under Roman/Harbaugh

Kansas City Chiefs

Main Theme:
"Don’t overreact to early season suspensions; elite talents returning mid-year can be league-winners, but ancillary Chiefs pieces remain unreliable."

Key Points & Insights

• Suspension Strategy:

  • Don’t fear early suspensions; it’s the easiest time to patch holes, ADP falls, and elite talents provide massive second-half upside.
    • "I don't fear early season suspensions… what he [Rice] was able to do when he came back… is a clear example." (Andrew, 15:32)
  • Rice finished top-5 in PPG after his return (and was top-2 in red zone targets per game).

• Chasing the Second Option Trap:

  • Don’t chase the WR2/3 in elite offenses without strong usage.
    • "The ancillary pieces aren't always worth chasing, even on some of the better offenses." (Jake, 19:10)
  • History of Kansas City: burning fantasy players searching for “the next guy” after Kelce/hill era; minimal, inconsistent returns from players like Skyy Moore, Xavier Worthy.

• Key Approach:

  • Go for elite, clearly-played pieces (e.g., Rice) at a discount; don’t pay up for ambiguous volume even in a top offense.

Notable Quotes

• "If Rice had not got suspended, I would have been way underweight on him and I would have been totally wrong about Rice…" (Andrew, 15:32)
• "You got to pay attention. It's twofold. You want a top 10 offense, but you want some kind of clarity of usage." (Jake, 19:46)

Timestamps

• [15:32] Erickson’s Takeaway: Don’t Fear Early Suspensions
• [18:05] Jake: When It’s Safe to Fade Ancillary Pieces in Great Offenses

Las Vegas Raiders

Main Theme:
"Elite tight end remains a boom-bust, high-opportunity-cost strategy; fading RBs on truly bad offenses is wise no matter the talent."

Key Points & Insights

• Elite Tight End: Risky Business

  • Elite TE can be impactful if you pick the right one (Trey McBride in 2025), but missing can tank your draft due to opportunity cost.
    • "Elite tight end still remains the riskier approach because every single year we see tight ends get drafted really, really late and end up being top five, top six guys." (Andrew, 22:10)
  • Late-breakout or lesser-known names like Fannin, Kraft or even Pitts often deliver huge value.
  • “Don’t draft the player that put up an elite season [last year]. Draft the guy who will do it this year.”

• Talent Can't Overcome a Bad Offense

  • Ashton Genti was a case study: talented, workhorse role, but capped by the league’s worst offense/OL.
    • "Nobody watching Ashton Genti was questioning the talent… I say all to say… sometimes the opportunity cost… is understand how bad some of these offenses could be." (Jake, 24:33)
    • On Raiders RBs: usage and touches were there, but yardage and efficiency cratered.
  • Be cautious drafting RBs on bottom-five offenses for top-12 upside, regardless of their skillset.

• Roster Construction & Draft Advice

  • Avoid premium RB picks in hopeless situations (unless price fully bakes in that risk).
  • Chase cheap late-round TEs with breakout potential vs. overpaying for “last year’s” star.

Notable Quotes

• "He didn't fail because he was a rookie. He failed because he was on the Raiders." (Andrew, 28:46)
• "You throw [Genti] on 20 other teams, top 10 at minimum, potentially even top." (Jake, 31:06)

Timestamps

• [22:10] Erickson: Elite Tight End as Risky Strategy
• [24:33] Jake: Bad Offenses Cap RB Ceilings
• [28:46] Erickson: On Genti, Talent vs. Situation

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• "We're the people that are looking in the mirror with the clown mask on. Be like, I listen to Sean Payton again." (Andrew, 03:06)
• "I've never been a huge Justin Herbert fan, but I will be a Herbert fan next year." (Jake, 06:46)
• "If you told me [Hampton and Genti] both get 270 touches next year... I'm taking Hampton 10 out of 10 times because of the teams." (Jake, 31:07)

Episode Roadmap

• [00:36] AFC West takeaways kick-off
• [01:13] Denver Broncos discussion: Payton’s volatility (Jake)
• [03:06] Broncos coach-speak and usage warning (Andrew)
• [05:16] RJ Harvey draft projection
• [06:22] Chargers as a buy in 2026 (Jake)
• [08:58] Chargers’ offensive line context and rebound candidates (Andrew)
• [10:49] Chargers’ passing tendencies analysis (Jake)
• [15:32] Chiefs: drafting suspended players, Rashi Rice case study (Andrew)
• [18:05] Chiefs ancillary pieces, usage clarity (Jake)
• [21:55] Raiders: Elite tight end draft philosophy (Andrew)
• [24:33] Raiders: Don’t draft RBs on hopeless offenses high, Genti’s cautionary year (Jake)
• [28:46] Genti vs. Bijan, contextualizing RB disappointments (Andrew/Jake)

Quick Takeaways for Fantasy Managers

• Broncos: Draft for talent and role, not coach hype; limit exposure beyond most reliable starters.
• Chargers: Buy low based on 2025’s “injury season”—expect big bouncebacks if health cooperates.
• Chiefs: Don’t fade studs due to missed games if ADP drops; ignore WR2/3 hype unless usage or injury creates clarity.
• Raiders: Be wary of RBs trapped in bottom-tier offenses; TE breakouts often come from unexpected places, and the “right” elite TE is hard to predict.

For more divisional takeaways, check out FantasyPros’ other episodes covering the AFC East, North, and South.