FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Biggest Fantasy Football Takeaways For EVERY NFC North Team (Ep. 1934)
Date: January 14, 2026
Host: Ryan Warmley
Guests: Andrew Erickson & Jake Seeley

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the biggest fantasy football lessons and takeaways from each NFC North team after the 2025 season. Ryan, Andrew, and Jake break down how player value, coaching changes, and QB play shifted the fantasy landscape, and what managers should look for heading into 2026 drafts. The discussion leans on rookies, coaching impact, and the real influence of quarterback performance.

1. Chicago Bears: Sophomore Surge & Shifting Roles

(Starts ~00:41)

Key Takeaways & Discussion

• Spotlight on Luther Burden

  • Jake is bullish on Luther Burden's year-two breakout potential:

    “Give me some hell of Luther Burden next year, especially with Caleb Williams and that comfort level...” (01:26)

  • Warns about tempering expectations for rookie WR3s:

    "Sometimes these third rookie wide receivers... can surprise with injuries, but more often than not, they're buried for a year. And when do we want to be back in? Year number two." (01:17)

  • Notes history of similar WRs (Jackson Smith-Njigba, Rome Odunze) emerging in their second year after a slow rookie season.

• Dynasty & 2026 Redraft Value

  • Fitz (from Dynasty show) ranks Burden WR10 overall in dynasty.
  • Consensus ranks for 2026: Burden at WR23, McLaurin at WR22, Zay Flowers at WR21.
  • Jake:

    “I’d probably still go Terry McLaurin, mostly because he’s the one. Whereas Burden, I would still say, is the two to Roma Odunze.” (03:46)

• Running Back Insights

  • DeAndre Swift was clearly named by coaches as the lead guy despite offseason skepticism.
  • Jake:

    "Pay attention to the fact that they told us DeAndre Swift is the guy... everybody's like, 'No, no, no, no, no.' DeAndre Swift is the flipping guy." (04:02)

• Ben Johnson's Coaching Influence

  • Andrew:

    “Ben Johnson handpicked Colston Loveland and Luther Burden when nobody was pegging the Bears [for those picks]... These are the two guys I want and you’re seeing it start to blossom here.” (05:18)

  • Colston Loveland: Elite playoff performance (15 targets, 137 yards, 8 catches)
  • Johnson’s scheme is facilitating offensive growth and high passing volume.

• Quarterback Caleb Williams' Development

  • All agree: Year two for Williams + Ben Johnson’s system = arrows up for Bears’ passing game.
  • Williams currently sits at QB13 in early 2026 ECR.
  • Erickson:

    “Caleb Williams will probably be the guy I’m circling as, oh, this is the late round quarterback that I actually want to draft because of the upside…” (06:42)

  • Jake voices a note of caution:

    “He’s too off target. 57–58% of his throws are on target. Like, I love some Caleb Williams, but that needs to change for him to hit the top 10.” (07:34)

Notable Moments

• On DJ Moore fading as an afterthought due to new weapons: “I don’t know that Caleb Williams knows that DJ Moore is still on the team...” (01:06)
• On the Bears’ sophomore stack:

  “I want all these Bears second-year studs because they’re going to get a full offseason healthy with Ben Johnson...” —Andrew (05:07)

• On hype and ADP:

  "If [Williams is] still going outside the top 12, I will be drafting him and taking that swing as a later round quarterback." —Ryan (08:59)

2. Green Bay Packers: Draft Capital (& Hype) ≠ Production

(Starts ~09:16)

Key Takeaways & Discussion

• First-Round WRs Need Caution

  • Jake examines the failure of Matthew Golden to make a rookie impact despite high expectations.
  • Stat drop:

    “I did an article... the hit rate for just finishing top 30 [for first-round rookie WRs]?... 50%. It was legitimately 50 on the nose.” (10:47)

    • Don’t assume first-rounders will thrive immediately for fantasy purposes.

• Important Reminder

  "Remember that going forward, if we have four or five wide receivers next year in our draft class: landing spot, draft capital — they matter, but... probably only going to be 50% at best.” (11:07)

• Tucker Kraft’s Development at TE

  • Andrew champions Kraft’s after-the-catch skills and believes he’ll excel once back from ACL injury:

    “He balled out as a rookie in the second half... what really got me onto him was he was so good with the ball in his hands, yards after the catch per reception.” (11:24)

  • Metric to watch: Yards after the catch per reception is a key late-round TE predictor.
    • Late-round TE names to watch: Darnell Washington, Dalton Kincaid, Colby Parkinson, Tyler Warren, Pat Freiermuth, Chig Okonkwo.

• Dalton Kincaid’s Outlook

  • Jake is wary of another Kincaid ADP inflation:

    “I have a feeling we’re just going to go right back into the trap of chasing Dalton Kincaid again... he ends up tight end 7 because of the talent, because of the upside... but the Bills spread it around.” (13:27)

  • Points out Buffalo’s use of 12 personnel, Josh Allen’s distribution, and Dawson Knox’s continuing contract.

Rankings Talk

• Early ECR for tight ends: Kraft at TE3 (tier two, behind only McBride and Bowers).
• Kraft’s injury has not suppressed his value, per rankings.

Notable Moment

• Kraft’s value is so high, even the hosts are taken aback:

  “Where do you think Craft is ranked in early ECR? … You’re still too low. He’s tight end three. Well, he’s… It’s literally tier one.” (15:08–15:10)

3. Minnesota Vikings: Quarterback Play Can Kill (Even Elite) WRs

(Starts ~17:32)

Key Takeaways & Discussion

• Elite WRs Aren’t Always “QB-Proof”

  • Jake:

    “Not everybody is QB immune. Or maybe how about the fact that like quarterbacks do kind of matter a little bit here because we all sat here. Justin Jefferson, by the way... But quarterbacks can kill wide receivers, even elite ones.” (17:37)

  • Mentions how changing QBs (Nick Mullins, Carson Wentz, Jake Browning) limited Jefferson and even Jamar Chase.

• Types of QBs Matter for WR Value

  • Erickson refines takeaway:

    “I’m a little bit more specific…about it being young, inexperienced first-year quarterbacks that can kill elite wide receivers.” (18:57)

  • Veteran backups (like Wentz, Nick Mullins, Jacoby Brissett) come in with no pressure, simply slinging it, whereas rookie QBs often overly focus on “doing it right.”
    • Experienced rookie QBs (older, many games played) have adjusted faster in recent years.
    • “21 year old rookie quarterback coming in to start for an NFL team, maybe not the best bet to make when you’re looking at, Oh, should I draft this guy’s receiver?” (21:44)

• For 2026: Justin Jefferson Outlook

  • Jake:

    “Still not inside the top 10. ...I think the whole conversation we’re having right now is proof and testament that like we need to factor in who the quarterback is and as of today that’s a giant question mark.” (22:24)

  • Jefferson is WR9 in early consensus ECR.

Notable Quotes

• “J.J. McCarthy, basically a glorified rookie because he missed his entire rookie season... he basically got to the halfway point and it wasn’t even in consecutive games...” —Andrew (19:44)
• On risk assessment:

  “Let’s take a pause and associate a little bit more of the risk with the quarterback playing the position...” —Jake (18:29)

4. Detroit Lions: Coaching Changes Ripple Through Offense

(Starts ~23:22)

Key Takeaways & Discussion

• Offensive Coordinator Impacts Production

  • Both Jake and Andrew echo:

    “Offensive coordinators make a significant impact.” (Jake, 23:43 & Andrew, 25:20)

  • Case in point: Losing Ben Johnson led to a step back — not a collapse, but enough to degrade some supporting fantasy players.
  • Change to how Jameson Williams was used:

    “Let’s go back to using Jameson Williams like we did two years ago when he didn’t do anything but run a route 20 yards downfield... Dan Campbell said that’s enough of this, we’re going back.” —Jake (24:04)

• Impact Felt Most on Ancillary Weapons

  • Dave Montgomery’s production fell (“one of his worst seasons for fantasy”), largely due to coordinator/line changes and shifting focus to Jameer Gibbs.
  • Andrew:

    “When you’re starting to see clusters of personnel usage in terms of they lost their coaches, the interior OL took a major hit... bits and parts of this offense are going to take a hit here, and that’s always going to be...the lesser pieces.” (25:20)

• Draft Caution for 2026

  • Pay attention to coaching hires in the offseason:

    “We have a huge coaching cycle right now ... Offense coordinators can have a big impact on not just the quarterback but really the wide receivers and the running backs and everything.” —Jake (24:42)

Notable News

• Mike McDaniel is interviewing for the OC role in Detroit.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I have a feeling we’re just going to go right back into the trap of chasing Dalton Kincaid again...” —Jake (13:27)
• On hype cycles and busts:

  “Sometimes these rookie wide receivers, they can surprise with injuries, but more often than not, they’re buried for a year.” —Jake (01:17)

• Quickly pinning change on coaching:

  “Offensive coordinators make a significant impact.” —Jake (23:43); echoed by Andrew (25:20)

• On Bears' youth movement:

  “I want all these Bears second year studs...” —Andrew (05:07)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Bears Takeaways/Breakouts: 00:41–08:59
• Packers Draft Capital Reality: 09:16–15:45
• Vikings WR Value & QBs: 17:32–23:22
• Lions & OC Impact: 23:22–27:25

Final Thoughts

This episode highlights the critical importance of:

• Observing year-two leaps, especially for WRs with first-round pedigree (Bears).
• Skepticism regarding immediate returns on rookie hype or draft capital (Packers).
• Taking QB context seriously when ranking “elite” skill players (Vikings).
• Closely watching coaching and scheme changes (Lions).

For 2026 drafts: focus on offensive continuity, beware “rookie fever," and trust multi-year development curves—especially for skill players surrounding young or shifting QBs.