FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Draft or Pass on These Fantasy Football Gambles: Boom-or-Bust Picks For 2025 (Ep. 1675)

Date: August 28, 2025
Host: Joe Pisapia ("Joey P.") with co-hosts Chris Welsh ("The Welsh") and Pat Fitzmaurice

Episode Overview

This episode is all about sorting out the biggest “boom-or-bust” fantasy options for 2025. The trio tackles the hardest strategic questions in drafts: Are you taking the swing on players with league-winning upside or playing it safe with steadier options? The hosts work through running backs and wide receivers (with some late-round quarterback/tight end rapid fire), discussing whether to draft or pass at their current ADPs—with plenty of banter and a few memorable disagreements along the way. Perfect listening for managers about to draft and trying to filter optimism from risk.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening & Format (03:35–04:08)

• The trio sets up a “Draft or Pass” game, focusing on players whose risk profiles may cause divisive opinions. Focus is on current ADPs sourced from FantasyPros’ real-time tools.

2. Running Back Boom-or-Bust Picks

Christian McCaffrey (CMC), SF

• ADP: #7 overall (was #14)
• Debate: Does his dominant ceiling outweigh monster injury risk?
• Welsh: Draft. Raves on production: “When Christian McCaffrey is healthy, it is Christian McCaffrey’s team...he might be the safest first-round pick there is, taking out the actual injury worry.” (06:17)
• Joe: Pass. “I’m out...at 7, I don’t know, I’m out.” (07:05)
• Pat: Reluctant Draft. “The injury risk is absolutely terrifying...But if you are in a league with a lot of sharks...the risk is justifiable.” (07:15)

Notable Quote:

• Pat: “He is a reluctant draft and the injury risk is absolutely terrifying... He always smashes when he’s healthy.” (07:15, 08:11)

Breece Hall, NYJ

• ADP: RB19, #43 overall
• Pat: Pass. “Aaron Glenn...wants to use multiple backs...The Jets are going to have a low-scoring offense...not a lot here for Breece Hall.” (09:52)
• Welsh: Draft. “He had one of the highest checkdown percentages...if Breece is getting five or more catches a game, that’s where he’s going to make a lot of that money.” (10:55)
• Joe: Pass at current ADP, would consider if he slips to the 60s. “He just doesn’t have the value of where he’s being drafted.” (12:52)

R.J. Harvey, DEN (Rookie)

• ADP: RB22, #52 overall
• Welsh: Draft. “RJ Harvey is explosive. He is too much of a playmaker for this offense...I think even if Dobbins chips away, he’ll be impossible to take off the field.” (14:04)
• Pat: Draft. “He was the Broncos’ second-round pick...Sean Payton has a history of giving us two or more valuable fantasy assets at running back in any given year.” (15:59)
• Joe: Draft. Clean sweep for Harvey.

Notable Advice:

• Welsh: “If Harvey doesn’t come out the gate strong, he might become a really accessible trade asset in the first couple weeks—someone you want to target.” (17:41)

Joe Mixon, HOU

• ADP: RB37, #102 overall (plummeting)
• Pat: Pass. “A foot issue, no bueno. It’s possible we don’t see Joe Mixon this year with this foot issue...even if we do, he’s running behind a really bad offensive line.” (19:11)
• Welsh: Hard Pass. “There’s no risk/reward here for me on Joe Mixon... Four weeks (out) could in a snap turn into eight and then not coming back at all.” (19:35)
• Joe: Draft, but only late. “There’s money involved here...I expect Joe Mixon to be back in the four-week window.” (21:17)

Washington Commanders Backfield

• RBs in play: Jacory Crosby Merritt, Chris Rodriguez, Austin Ekeler
• Welsh: Pass. “I think there is too much of a committee here...these ADPs have gone too high.” (22:40)
• Pat: Draft Eckler, Draft Rodriguez, Pass Crosby Merritt. “Eckler is going to be the pass-catching back...I just don’t see Bill (Crosby Merritt) having enough value to generate...the mania we’re seeing right now.” (24:32)
• Joe: Agrees—committee is too muddy.

3. Wide Receiver Boom-or-Bust Picks

Tyreek Hill, MIA

• ADP: WR15, #37 overall
• Pat: Pass. “The vibes just have not been great between Tyreek Hill and the team...now he’s in his 30s...Just too many things to worry about.” (31:05)
• Joe: Draft, but only as a WR2/3 at this discount.
• Welsh: Firm Pass. “Eleven games he finished WR30 or worse last year...already dealing with an oblique issue...He’s a pass for me.” (32:56, 33:45)

Notable Quote:

• Welsh: “He was heavily, heavily tied to Tua...as we saw Tua and his air yards drop, that had a very direct effect to Tyreek Hill.” (33:45)

Tetairoa McMillan, CAR (Rookie)

• ADP: WR26, #59 overall (rising)
• Welsh: Draft. “Give me Teowa McMillan 100%...He’s going to find just really good points of separation against cornerbacks as a rookie and he’s going to get tons of targets.” (36:08)
• Joe: Draft. “I think he’s this year’s Brian Thomas Jr.—the guy that people aren’t really on enough.” (37:51)
• Pat: Draft. “He steps into a high volume role right away as the day-1 X receiver...this one is easy, guys.” (38:18)

Rashee Rice & Xavier Worthy, KC

• Rice ADP: WR32 (falling due to 6-game suspension)
• Worthy ADP: Rising due to Rice’s absence
• Pat: Draft at the right price. “If you pay something appropriate for what those guys are going to be when they play, then I think it’s OK...Now that Patrick Mahomes has weaponry...I do think the Chiefs passing game is going to click.” (41:00, 41:08)
• Welsh: Mostly Pass, but caveat. “Rice at the current value doesn’t make sense...but if he falls to WR5 range, I’ll definitely do it.” (42:30)
• Joe: Pass. “Rice needs to drop way further...Worthy’s ADP is going up, maybe too much—it could be overrated.” (44:28)

Travis Hunter, JAX (Rookie, two-way player)

• ADP: Clustered near Pearsall, Golden, Egbuka
• Joe: Pass. “I just can’t get there at the current ADP...I like the other three WRs in that range more.” (47:51)
• Welsh: Draft, but prefers Pearsall/Egbuka. “He is going to be out there way more than people are expecting...This offense and coaching staff breeds to players like him in that slot.” (47:51–49:53)
• Pat: Pass. “They say he’s going to be mostly offense and Liam Cohen is saying it’s going to be like an 80% snap share for him, but lies...they might shift that a little bit in season.” (49:57–50:53)

Notable Quote:

• Pat: “You think they’re going to want to leave Travis Hunter on the bench when Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are running wild on them? I just have concerns about that.” (50:53)

4. Lightning Round: Quick Draft or Pass Takes

Rams WRs (Puka Nacua, Davante Adams)

• Pat: Pass—Mutual cannibalization concerns and QB health (Matthew Stafford back issues). (51:36)
• Welsh: Draft—Talent and volume trumps all. “Even Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t screw it up.” (51:46)
• Joe: Draft at 17th overall—“I’m looking for that discount.” (52:07)

Saints WRs (Olave, others)

• Joe: Hard Pass—Concerns over QB (Rattler/Shuck) and Olave’s concussion history. (52:07)
• Welsh: Draft—Olave is a steal at WR34, Rashid Shaheed interesting. (52:31)
• Pat: Draft Olave—“For his career, Olave has averaged 2.21 yards per route run. That’s up with CeeDee Lamb and Ja’Marr Chase.” (53:03)

Justin Fields, QB, NYJ

• Pat: Pass—Bleak passing outlook, risk of Wilson injury. “What would the O/U be on his passing yards without Garrett Wilson—99.5?” (53:30)
• Welsh: Draft—“You’re not drafting him for his passing, you want the rushing.” (54:01)
• Joe: Draft in SuperFlex. (54:14)

Drake Maye, QB, NE

• Welsh: Draft at current value (QB16 real-time, QB13 on some boards)—Value too good. (54:37)
• Pat: Draft—“He could give you rushing numbers very similar to what Justin Fields...but vastly superior passer.” (55:19)

Travis Kelce, TE, KC

• Pat: Pass—Prefers Bowers/Kittle early or Kraft/Warren late. (55:57)
• Welsh: Draft, with caveat—“I’ll put a ring on it...but there are other guys I want.” (56:08)
• Joe: Draft, later the better. (56:22)

Tyler Warren, TE, IND

• Pat: Draft—“It’s like George Kittle and Jeremy Shockey had a baby—it was Tyler Warren.” (56:41)
• Welsh: Draft—Late TE target if miss out on elite options. (56:59)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Joe (on CMC): “I’m a pass. At 7, I was in. At 14, I was curious...but at 7, I don’t know, I’m out.” (07:05)
• Welsh (on Puka/Adams): “Even Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t screw it up. Those wide receivers are way, way too talented.” (51:46)
• Pat (on Olave): “He’s really, really good and really undervalued.” (53:03)
• Pat (on Justin Fields): “What would DraftKings/FanDuel set the O/U at for Fields passing yards if Garrett Wilson didn’t play? 99.5?” (53:30)

Episode Flow & Tone

• Energy: The tone is high-spirited, but the show keeps advice practical—often highlighting how player values shift in response to news (injuries, usage, suspensions). The hosts don’t shy from disagreement (“I just can’t get there…” vs. “100% draft!”), contributing to lively, informative banter.
• Language: Conversational, direct, with signature industry humor (“put a ring on it” for Kelce; “circumstantial evidence” for the boom/bust picks).
• Memorable banter: Frequent references to the “Chubby shirts” that all but Pat are wearing, jokes about mailing gifts, and poking fun at each other for being industry “divas.”

Quick Reference Timestamps

• 04:08 – Christian McCaffrey Boom-or-Bust debate
• 09:19 – Breece Hall timeshare worries
• 14:04 – R.J. Harvey rookie hype
• 19:11 – Joe Mixon’s injury uncertainty
• 22:40 – Commanders RB Committee confusion
• 31:05 – Tyreek Hill’s risk versus reward
• 36:08 – Tetairoa McMillan’s sky-high rookie upside
• 41:00 – Rashee Rice suspension fallout & Chiefs WR room
• 47:51 – Travis Hunter two-way role debate
• 51:36 – Lightning round: Rams/Adams/Puka, Saints/Olave, QBs, TEs

Takeaways for Fantasy Drafters

• Be careful at rising RB/WR values—sometimes the risk grows faster than the ceiling.
• Injury discount is only a discount if the player actually returns.
• Rookies Harvey & McMillan drew unanimous “draft” calls as potential league-winners.
• For committee situations, err toward late, low-risk shots (Eckler, Rodriguez) or avoid altogether.
• At tight end, wait for upside (Tyler Warren), unless you get a falling veteran at true value.
• Remember: League context matters—big swings are often necessary in tough competition.

For full player-by-player breakdowns, ADP recommendations, and up-to-the-minute news, visit FantasyPros.com.