FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Draft or Pass on These Rising ADPs? | Fantasy Football Draft Court Debates (Ep. 1671)
Date: August 27, 2025
Host/Judge Joey: Joe P. Zapia (“Joey P.”)
Analysts: Pat Fitzmaurice (“Fitzy”), Derrick Brown (“DBro”)
Theme: Fast-rising players in fantasy drafts—should you “Draft or Pass” as their ADP surges? Featuring Draft Court “debates,” with real-time polls and in-depth, comedic analysis.

Episode Overview

In this Draft Court episode, Joe P. Zapia presides over a series of debates about 2025’s “risers”—fantasy football players whose Average Draft Position (ADP) is climbing rapidly as draft season peaks. Experts Derrick Brown and Pat Fitzmaurice argue for and against drafting these hype-laden players: Jakory Croskey-Merritt (RB, WAS), Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF), Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN), Dak Prescott (QB, DAL), and Mark Andrews (TE, BAL). Lively banter, rapid-fire stats, and audience polling drive the courtroom proceedings, all wrapped in the show’s signature wit.

Key Draft Court Debates & Analysis

1. Jakory Croskey-Merritt (RB, Washington Commanders)

Segment: 04:00–12:00

The Debate

• DBro’s Argument (Pro-Draft, RB28):

  • Believes his aggressive rank isn’t aggressive enough given draft room trends.
  • Praises 2023 college efficiency: “19th in yards after contact per attempt, 12th in elusive rating... and [Washington] was 1st in NFL rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line.”
  • Dismisses Chris Rodriguez as a real threat, citing his negligible usage last year.
  • Sees Croskey-Merritt's RB3 status with strong upside: “This is the type of upside Bill brings to us.” (05:20)

• Fitzy’s Argument (Pass, RB37):

  • Calls DBro “quick to get caught up in fads” (07:00), and ranks Croskey-Merritt as a committee back.
  • Skeptical due to “three-headed backfield”: “Dan Quinn has already told us that Chris Rodriguez is going to be used in short yardage situations... so we have a seventh-round pick who’s not going to be getting many of the high-value touches.” (07:40)
  • Believes too much hype, not enough role clarity.

• Notable Quote:

  • Dbro: “We’re shading Bill JCM because he was drafted in the seventh round, yet we’re touting players with similar or worse profiles! If he has the goal-line role, takes all the early-down work, and scores 8–10 TDs, he’ll pay off.” (09:20)

Verdict

• Audience vote: 54% in favor of drafting JCM.
• Judge Joey: “This court does not approve that decision... but we are the people’s show. DBro gets a win.” (10:58)

2. Khalil Shakir (WR, Buffalo Bills)

Segment: 12:42–22:25

The Debate

• DBro’s Argument (Pro-Draft, WR37):

  • Likes the rapport with Josh Allen: “Weeks 7–17... he had a 23% target share, 2.15 yards per route run, and almost a 28% first-read share.” (14:20)
  • Considers Shakir Buffalo's safest WR for targets.
  • Believes the threat from Keon Coleman and others is overblown: “This is a Khalil Shakir argument, not a Keon Coleman argument.” (14:20)

• Fitzy’s Argument (Pass, WR47):

  • Focuses on injury: “Drafting injured players without a substantial discount is never good policy. Shakir is dealing with a high ankle sprain... and his ADP is still in the 10th round.” (16:12)
  • Notes Buffalo’s “everyone eats” approach: “They play five or six receivers, Josh Allen spreads it around.”
  • Only seven TDs in three seasons. (16:12)

• Notable Moments:

  • Judge Joey: “The Bills are the new version of Drew Brees’ Saints—fun for real football, but maddening in fantasy.” (18:50)
  • Chat banter: Emphasis on volatility, and the fun ban on viewers calling the judge names (“Mr. Wumbo, get out of my stream!” at 19:33).

Verdict

• Audience vote: 77% against drafting Shakir.
• Judge Joey: “Get out of my room... you’re going to fantasy jail, Khalil.” (22:25)

3. Courtland Sutton (WR, Denver Broncos)

Segment: 24:00–37:05

The Debate

• DBro’s Argument (Pro-Draft, WR18):

  • “I apologize for not being high enough on Sutton—he’s up to WR23 in real-time ADP; 12th-highest riser.” (29:14)
  • Lauds role as Bo Nix’s ‘Nico Collins’: “WR20 fantasy points per game after Bo Nix got going; 17th in yards per route run.”
  • See’s WR1 potential: “He could produce top-15 or even top-12 numbers this year.” (30:40)

• Fitzy’s Argument (Pass, WR28):

  • “Cortland Sutton’s never finished better than WR26 in PPR fantasy points per game.” (33:28)
  • Cites Denver’s strong defense, run tendency, and many mouths to feed.
  • “He’s being drafted at his historical ceiling.” (33:28)

• Judge Joey: “Copy-paste season for Sutton... young QBs develop a rapport and lean on one guy.”

• Notable Exchange:

  • Joey objects to bringing up Nathaniel Hackett-era Broncos as precedent: “That was one of the most ill-prepared, underwhelming, frankly unprofessional situations in the NFL!” (33:18)

Verdict

• Audience vote: 82% in favor of drafting Sutton.
• Judge Joey: “That’s a Shaquille O’Neal mid-90s backboard-breaking slam dunk.” (37:03)
  • “This is how you win fantasy leagues: WR3s who play like 2s, 2s who play like 1s.” (37:03)

4. Dak Prescott (QB, Dallas Cowboys)

Segment: 37:05–50:20

The Debate

• DBro’s Argument (Pro-Draft, QB8):

  • “He could be the NFC counterpoint to Joe Burrow in a high-flying offense with a terrible defense.”
  • “We are one season removed from Dak being QB4 in fantasy points per game.” (41:36)
  • Sees offensive situation as pass-heavy out of necessity.

• Fitzy’s Argument (Pass, QB15):

  • Emphasizes landscape: “QB is deep this year... Dak doesn’t run, so he’d have to go absolutely bonkers with passing numbers.” (42:47)
  • “He has played 12 or fewer games in three of the last five years and is 32.”
  • Prefers upside of rushing QBs (Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix).

• Notable Exchange:

  • Fitzy: “He’d need to stay healthy all season and go nuclear. I just rather bet on guys who add some rushing value.” (42:47)
  • Dbro, on single-QB strategy: “If you want upside like Dak, you may want to pair him with a young, upside QB.” (45:05)

Verdict

• Audience vote: 60% in favor of drafting Dak.
• Judge Joey: “He is guilty of being just too tempting to pass up... especially with this defense and run game.” (46:44)

5. Mark Andrews (TE, Baltimore Ravens)

Segment: 50:20–58:44

The Debate

• DBro’s Argument (Pro-Draft, TE4):

  • Emphasizes upside: “Once healthy, Weeks 10–18, tight end 5 in points per game, 18% target share, 2.3 Y/RR.” (50:20)
  • Touchdown scorer: “If you want to swing for elite upside at the position, you take Mark Andrews at TE7 price.” (51:46)

• Fitzy’s Argument (Pass, TE10):

  • “He’s coming off a season slathered in touchdown deodorant. He did not have a single game over 70 receiving yards.” (52:46)
  • Andrews hasn’t had more than 80 rec yds in a game since 2023.
  • “He’s now 30; I’d rather swing for upside with younger TEs like Tucker Kraft or Tyler Warren.” (53:59)
  • “He’s a catch and fall-down guy now—he just happened to do it in the end zone a lot last year.” (55:23)

• Judge Joey: “But I like when he catches and falls down in the end zone... you get me six points.” (55:47)

Verdict

• Audience vote: 62% against drafting Andrews.
• Fitzy: “Pretty satisfying—feels like the end of A Few Good Men...” (58:29)

Notable Quotes & Fun Moments

• DBro: “You almost fell in the route win rate hole, Joey!” (22:25)
• Judge Joey: “This is how you win leagues—find WR3s who play like 2s, 2s who play like 1s. And sometimes 4s that sneak to 2 or 3!” (37:03)
• Fitzy: “Drafting injured players without a discount is never good policy.” (16:12)
• Chat Banter: Timu Hamilton reference, playful judge enforcement, and shenanigans about costumes and judge’s wigs.
• DBro: “I want wide receivers who jump a tier; that’s the secret sauce!” (37:03)
• Joey, on Dak: “Brings the glass and rim down like Shaquille O’Neal... just crashes.” (37:03)

Important Timestamps

• 04:00 – Jakory Croskey-Merritt debate
• 12:42 – Khalil Shakir WR Buffalo debate
• 24:00 – Courtland Sutton WR Denver debate
• 37:05 – Dak Prescott QB Dallas debate
• 50:20 – Mark Andrews TE Baltimore debate

Episode Tone & Style

• Fun, rapid-fire, and irreverent—“Draft Court” brings legal drama energy and lots of in-jokes.
• Arguments are backed by stats but laced with humor: fantasy “jury” polling, judge's theatrical rulings, and classic analyst banter.
• Real-world analysis meets high entertainment value: clear takeaways for redraft leagues.

Takeaways for Fantasy Drafters

• Don’t overreact to hype: Committee situations, injuries, and past role volatility can make risers risky.
• Late QB/TE targets: There are upside shots to take, but be wary of age, injury, and systemic risks.
• Audience wisdom edged toward upside plays for RB/WR/QB, fading older/injury-question TEs.
• Leverage real-time ADP trends: The market shifts rapidly during peak draft season—stay alert for jumps that push values out of reasonable range.

Follow and interact with the FantasyPros crew for daily shows, expert tools, and live debates as draft season culminates. The Draft Court is adjourned!