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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Fantasy Football Draft Advice | Key Injuries to Know (Ep. 1677)
00:24:45
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This is an iHeart podcast.
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I'm Jake Hofer and this is Back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access?
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Should you?
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That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand.
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Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
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Hello everybody. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined by my friend Dr. Deepak Chona. He is Sport MD Analysis. We have done many shows together over the years. Some live shows, some pre recorded. I believe last year you and I did the same thing we're going to do today, which is a bit of a season preview from an injury perspective. Sort of a short form video where we hit on a about a dozen or so names here. Just give folks who are drafting this weekend because as we talked about before we started recording, it is the biggest draft weekend of the year. Give them some last minute injury insights from an actual doctor here about what to expect from maybe some of these recovery timelines. A lot of the stuff that you do is really backed by data and kind of the science behind this. So you obviously come to this with a lot of expertise in terms of, you know, evaluating these injuries as best we can from afar and, and seeing what's going to happen. Does that sound like a good plan here?
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C
Yeah, that sounds great. Appreciate that. And let's get it, let's get it rolling.
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I will remind everybody that all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasyprose.com rankings and also I do just want to take a moment to kind of thank the audience as we're sort of wrapping up our offseason coverage. Obviously not wrapping up fantasy pros, you know, stuff in general. We have a whole lot coming your way in season, but sort of wrapping up the off season part of the program and just thanks everybody for listening throughout the summer. And um, you know, the best way to support the show is by leaving a review and make it an honest one. If you have feedback, we want to hear it. But by leaving a review at fantasyprose.com review and by rating the show wherever it is that you're listening to your podcast. So we really appreciate the feedback. It helps to grow the show and also make it better. We want to make the show kind of Our best foot forward as best as we possibly can. So I wanted to get that out of the way. Let's dive into some injuries to know before your drafts. I want to start kind of with the 49ers in general. Brandon Aiyuk, somebody who obviously he's. He's got a delayed start to his season last year with, you know, some of the holdout stuff and then he ends up missing a large chunk of the season with an injury. What can you tell us about a.
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C
Yeah, so he's going to start the season on pup. It looks like that was kind of the expectation all along. I wouldn't really consider that a setback with most of these injuries. He was projected to be about an 11 month type return. His was more than just an ACL. So ACL, MCL combo takes a little bit longer to return. The comments suggested somewhere around a week six target might be realistic and the data that we had projected him for mid to late October, so that is fairly consistent. The one thing to keep in mind with these types of players coming back is wide receivers off the combo. ACL, MCL usually take about a 6 game ramp up to see their target volume get back to normal. So with that in mind, we think he's in for potentially a strong last third of the season. But the early phase of his return maybe a little up and down and we're not really planning on using him ourselves in most of those lineups.
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Yeah, that's, you know, when you talk about a delayed start and then also a ramp up period once you get back. You're basically at the fantasy playoffs already, which is hard to imagine sitting here in August. But you know, it does come quickly. So you know, discouraging if you're, you're counting on him in any kind of redraft format. It's interesting because there are really multiple 49ers that you could talk about. It feels like basically the whole, I mean all the wide receivers like Juan Jennings, although you know, who knows how much of that is like kind of a sort of a hold in like with some of the contract negotiating stuff like Ricky Pearsall, obviously he started last year, you know, with, with the chest gunshot wound. So very different situation this year. You know, obviously we don't even have him on the list to talk about. But you know, everybody knows what happened with Christian McCaffrey a year ago. Just it seems like all the 49ers are at least worth just saying like hey, you know, be aware of some injury stuff. So the guys, besides that, you can you weigh in on any of them?
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C
Yeah. So Juwan Jennings is an interesting Casey. If it is truly an injury, it's a re aggravated calf strain. That initial aggravation dates all the way back to OTAs. So those tend to carry a very high re injury risk in season for a wide receiver and he's had a lot of time to recover. But even still they're talking about this potential IR and it's very uncertain how much of this is injury versus contract. So with that in mind, we would Suspect not unlike McLaurin coming off of Pup right after his contract, that sort of thing. So I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case. Most of these re aggravated castrains within six weeks of rest you would start to see players at least try to ramp up. So if they're still talking about IR and it truly is an injury related concern, we wouldn't bank on Juwan Jennings in really any capacity. And then you look at Ricky Pearsall. Now he, he had a hamstring injury that made him start training camp on the inactive list, but he very quickly came back from it. It doesn't look like it's affected him at all during training camp and he's been available the whole time. So with that in mind, that would predict that he doesn't have any lingering risk going into the season. So Ricky Piersol, we would basically fully send on nothing from last year, really overly concerning and then this year really no reason to doubt him so far.
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Pearsall is somebody that as a fantasy pros team we are going full send in terms of just the rankings in general. So that's very good to hear because we, we consider him to be one of the, you know, real key breakout candidates for the season at wide receiver. So a clean bill of health will certainly go a long way towards that. I want to let everybody know that you can get in the game. Best Ball is live at DraftKings. $15 million is on the line with real stakes and real excitement. Best Ball is the biggest fantasy contest at DraftKings. Talking a $15 million guaranteed prize pool with two millionaires being crowned for first and second place play season long fantasy football the draft kings way. With Best Ball, there's no waiver wires and no roster management. You get bigger rosters so injuries won't end your season. Just draft your team and you're set. If a shot at winning a share of $15 million isn't enough to get you excited, you check this out. DraftKings is offering everyone a draft one get one special your $20 entry fee scores you a bonus ticket. Download the DraftKings app and use Code Fantasy Pros. That's Code Fantasy Pros for all customers who enter the NFL Best Ball $15 million millionaire contest to get a bonus ticket and get a shot at being crowned one of two millionaires only on.
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Hola, it's Honey German and my podcast Gracias Come Again is back. This season we're going even deeper into the world of music and entertainment with raw and honest conversations with some of your favorite Latin artists and celebrities. You didn't have to audition?
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No, I didn't audition.
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I haven't auditioned like over 25 years.
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I won't say whitewashed because at the end of the day, you know, I'm me. Yeah, but the whole pretending and coat, you know, it takes a toll on you.
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Listen to the new season of Gracias Come Again as part of my Cultura Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast or Wherever you get your podcast.
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I'm Dan, he's Ty. Hello. And we're the Solid Verbal College Football Podcast. College football season is here. And you know what that means. Your team is going to break your heart three times probably before Halloween. Uh huh. But fear not, the Solid Verbal will be right there with you through every soul crushing loss and impossible comeback. Join us all season long, all year long, as we ride the rollercoaster of this ridiculous sport. Whether you're a diehard fan or a casual observer, we'll help you make sense of all the chaos and of course, celebrate the madness. Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else, and all the emotional support you need as a college football fan. We don't just love college football, Tyler, we live it. Listen to the Solid Verbal College Football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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All right, next name here. And by the way, there's the outside of putting the 49ers together, there's not really a whole lot of rhyme or reason to the order. Just kind of wrote out the names as I had them here, so there's not like we're going position by position or anything like that. The next name I have written down is Chris Godwin, who was on pace to be, you know, wide receiver one in fantasy early last season, was having a ridiculous season, obviously has another season ending injury. It's been interesting because they gave him the contract early in the off season and that seemed to most people, based on the terms of the contract, to suggest that, hey, maybe the team says there's not actually that much injury concern here. Then they go out and draft a first round wide receiver who's looked really good. Now there's, you know, talk about Godwin like being on PUP and everything. So just kind of taking into all the different factors that we've had over the last several months. What's your analysis on Chris Godwin right now?
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Yeah, so super hard to bank on much here. So the Chris Godwin most recent update just today is that he passed his physical and Todd Bowles announced week two to five is, is roughly when he's expecting a return for Godwin. But keep in mind that he hasn't even practiced yet with the team, so there was some skepticism that he's even been running yet. I think he probably my guess is he has if he, if he didn't make the PUP list now with Chris Godwin's injury, he fractured and dislocated his ankle there's some torn ligaments as part of that as well. Just the complex of that injury usually creates a 12 month performance dip of up to about 20% but then that's with a single surgery and a normal sort of post op recovery course. You have to remember Chris Godwin had a second surgery which means there was some sort of complication. And we don't know the details of what was done at that second surgery, but it kind of implies that you're going to push his recovery timeline even further back. So. But his injury was a week eight, so you would expect about week eight for him to hit his 90% level if you were looking at a smooth recovery course. Now you're pushing that back. It's unclear to when, but my guess is at least about a month in terms of, you know, if we're kind of being conservative with that estimate. So with that in mind, I'm not really banking on Chris Godwin. I think he will be out there. My guess is more towards the later end of what Bulls suggested probably around that week five timeline. But in terms of him being a high level or high volume contributor, I think they're going to have to ramp him up and I think his efficiency very likely will dip as well.
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So that in, you know, kind of along those lines would suggest that it is probably a good idea. Another, you know, receiver who has been moving up draft board similar to Ricky Piersoll is a Mecha Igbuka. And that would sort of go along with what you're saying here too that it is smart to feel like the Bucks are going to rely on Ig early. He's gonna have this real Runway because not only will God would not be on the field to start when he is on the field, we're expecting a bit of a, you know, delayed kind of ramp up period again. So, you know, arrow up for Igbuka in that regard. Obviously you don't want to see that due to an injury, but that is sort of the, the fallout of it. One player who is basically not even on my draft board. I'm curious to hear if you agree with that. From the the injury perspective is Joe Mixon. What are we doing with Mixin at this point?
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Yeah, Joe Mixon. There's a lot of concern that he might not play at all this year and it sounds like he's been dealing with an injury since at least May. Now you would think about most non operative injuries three to four months and still not really any sign of him practicing or healing is pretty doubtful in terms of making a lot of progress over the next, let's say month or two given that it's been this long already. Reportedly he may have had a procedure that wasn't really approved by the team and there's some skepticism about maybe it didn't work. And that's kind of the latest of what we've been hearing. Again, none of this is verified by the team, but at the same time with Joe Mixon, he's also had a severe foot and ankle history, even as recently as last year, missing time with a bad high ankle. So not really banking on much here. Looking very much at the committee approach for the Texans running back room.
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Yeah, I mean like, like I said, he's basically not even on my draft board at this point given everything and just I will let if somebody else takes huge risk and it pans out, good for them, it will not be me. Before we get to the rest of the show, I want to take a quick second to talk to everyone about Fantrax. Guys, if you want customization in your fantasy platform, look no further than Fantracks, offering the greatest fantasy experience for your dynasty, keeper redraft and best ball leagues. Their free NFL Fantasy Football League manager is the most customizable, easy to use, feature rich platform in the industry. They can easily import any current leagues you have on other platforms and begin customizing your settings immediately. Personally, I use fan tracks for my college football fantasy league, my dynasty baseball league, my dynasty college basketball fantasy league. Yes, that's a real thing. And of course my longtime dynasty NFL league made the switch as well. Whether it's devi leagues, IDP leagues, decimal scoring, tight end, premium, unique matchup settings like weekly double headers. There's a reason why fantasy players who try fan tracks make it the permanent home for all their fantasy league because they have it all. And I haven't even mentioned the best part yet. Sign up for free today and you will be entered. To win a signed Jamar Chase Jersey. Head to fantrax.com fantasypros and sign up today. That's F A N T R-A X.com fantasypros for your chance at a signed Jamar Chase jersey, Fantrax, the home of fantasy sports, another kind of veteran running back here, Najee Harris, obviously had this stuff going on with the eye and the fireworks over the summer and fourth of July. You know, people, a lot of people are really excited about Omarion Hampton and see this as an opportunity for Hampton to really, you know, solidify his kind of grip on on this backfield. Harris is the type of player that Jim Harbaugh really does like, though. So if he's on the field, I am. I'm still worried about him kind of eating into those Hampton carries. What do we expect out of Harris in terms of being on the field and being productive?
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Yeah, Najee Harris is. They called it a superficial eye injury, but it dates back to the July 4th weekend and you're now looking at about seven, eight weeks later that he's now cleared and returning to practice and that sort of thing. So it looks like he's going to be playing Week 1, but obviously he's missed all the reps. So the question is, yes, he's a veteran running back. Maybe he just plugs right in. It's more of a usage question, but I don't think it's so much of an injury question, if that makes sense. Most likely the only injury impact you're going to see from this going forward is just him having missed training camp.
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Captain, one player who missed large chunks of training camp, Matthew Stafford. And I'm really curious to get your opinion on this one for two reasons. One, Stafford is a real key to multiple fantasy players value, right? Like, we need this offense to be good for Kyren Williams of scoring opportunities. We need the quarterback to be good for guys like Puka Nukua and Devonte Adams to take advantage. I'm also curious because it's been kind of an interesting journey, right? He was on. I don't even. I'm not even going to pretend to remember what all that stuff was called, but that like glass table thing with his back like that they had the like Airstream looking. You can tell I'm not. I have no medical background talking about this, but what do you make of just everything that's been going on with Stafford? And you know, a guy who's older, there's, you know, everybody always makes a joke like, nobody used to have a bad back. It's just something you deal with. So, like, are you nervous about Stafford from a fantasy perspective?
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Yeah, very, to be honest. So I do think he's going to start week one. He's probably going to look pretty good when he's healthy. The issue with him is going to be managing this back injury all season long. He's been having epidural shots. That implies to me he probably had some sort of disc herniation. And those discs can slip out and basically pinch on nerves. And Matthew Stafford's tough, but it's almost impossible to play through that level of pain. Nerve pain is extremely severe. In a lot of cases. So the issue is if he's being managed with these injections, would a bad hit or a bad trunk rotation when he's throwing lead to him re aggravating this? Very possibly, yes. So I have been avoiding the Rams wide receivers as much as tempting as it is. But the the reason just being even though I expect Stafford to start healthy, there's going to be a super high re aggravation risk all season long.
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A
Wide receiver, I want to ask you about Jaden Reed. What do you have for us here?
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C
Yeah, Jaden Reed actually just returned to practice today, so he was seen in a boot as recently as two weeks ago. They were calling it a foot sprain and most likely the most common thing here would be a midfoot area sprain given that it took him about six weeks to get back in the game. With that in mind, you would think that Jaden Reed having returned to practice today would probably be a full participant by the time next week rolls around in the lead up to week one. So I would think he plays I don't think he has a lot of restriction, but there is some concern that this may have some effect on how much they use him early on just because like I said two weeks ago he was in a boot and looked like he was even limping in some videos that were circulating online. So today he looked pretty sharp from the brief highlights that we've seen and I do think he's going to play week one without major dip.
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I'm interested to see what the usage is for him because I feel like I've been maybe too low on Matthew golden for a lot of the summer and if Reed is like at all rusty or limited just in any capacity, then that just you know, gives even more of an opening for their first round picket receiver to to take advantage early on in the season. How about Devon Achan? Obviously one of like the biggest names that we're talking about just in terms of like when healthy, where they're going, they, you know, RB8 in real time ADP which is available on Fantasy pros. And now to kind of see where these guys are are really actually going not just from year long ADP but from the last 24 hours and then also the last seven days. You can see those trends. He's RB8 but he's down to about 17th overall. That is definitely lower than when he was going kind of early on before more of this injury stuff cropped up. One of the reasons that I've been a little wary of Achan in previous drafts is because it's multiple guys need to stay healthy, right? It's him and Tua needs to be healthy for Achan to be really effective. And that just scares me. Kind of having an extra person involved that you're worried about. But just thinking about a chance specifically is, is any injury stuff with him enough that you think he should be kind of falling far out of the first round or if you want to take the big upside swing on him regardless, do you think it's worth investing in that?
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C
Yeah, I think he's worth investing in. I probably wouldn't take him as my first pick, but as a second rounder I think it's very reasonable. The issue with a Chan is that he had a calf strain. We never really know the severity of these things until the player returns to practice because that we find is the only real objective indicator. The teams are at a little bit of disincentive, to tell us the truth. They don't have to report any of the preseason injuries, honestly. And with hn, the question is he's an explosive player. There is going to be a re aggravation risk with the calf. Now, if he does return next week to practice, which is what we're projecting, what all the comments have suggested so far, then that would have him at two weeks out and about a 10% re injury risk, which is relatively low, but not zero. The real concern here is if they are misleading us and you may remember Christian McCaffrey's supposed calf injury last year in this time. If they are misleading us, we won't find out until last minute and we will likely see an extended absence. But but in the absence of an aggravation, you would generally see a Chan progress on and the GM just came out today saying he's going to play week one. So with that in mind, we expect him to return to practice next week and probably not have a huge re aggravation risk given that this was likely a mild injury.
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How about another big name running back here, Kenneth Walker, who is going a couple rounds later than HN is. And you know, we've talked on the show that the upside is as significant as almost anybody in fantasy. But for me, like I'm not worried about usage, I'm not worried about anything. I'm worried about these like kind of nagging injuries that have continued to crop up for Walker over the years. You know, always feels like he's off on the practice report, like injury designation as like some kind of foot injury or something. Obviously he's dealt with Some of that here in August. So going into draft day, are you willing to draft Kenneth Walker despite the kind of litany of injury reports and everything that have added up over the years?
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C
Yeah, it's a good question. He's, he's been on the injury report a lot now. With that being said, he's somewhat of a value where he's going compared to what his role is projected to be. And if you also look at his overall history, he, he hasn't missed that many more games than the average running back. The one thing this year that does kind of stand out, yes, he has a prior soft tissue history with recurrent kind of core abdomen, groin type injuries and that does raise his risk a touch over the average running back. But this year the question in my eyes is why hasn't he been practicing that consistently? They've called it foot soreness, which suggests overall not a high concern and not any like major structural damage that's going to keep him out. And he has been intermittently practicing and reportedly looking good. But given that Zach Charbonnet is as talented as he is, he's a second round running back, always been efficient when he's out there and he's been getting all these rave reviews, I would think that Kenneth Walker, if he were truly fully healthy, would have priority in terms of being out there to compete with Charbonnet and to keep him as the backup rather than split that load. So that's the one concern with Kenneth Walker. I do think that foot soreness may be a little more serious than they're letting on. But with that being said, you know, the, the history itself, not highly, highly concerning just because he is a running back and wear and tear is actually quite common with these guys.
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A
Let's look at another backfield with kind of a possibility for split carries, at least when guys are healthy. That's the Titans. Taje Spears, a popular sleeper for a lot of people early on in draft season. Of course now he has, you know, his, his injury stuff that is going to, I believe, keep him out for a certain number of weeks here. Is it going to be long enough that you would say that you should bump up a guy like Tony Pollard in your rankings and we're worried about the effectiveness of Spears when he comes back from the ankle issue.
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C
Yeah, I would, I would bump up Tony Pollard. And the other aspect to it is that Taj Spears, so he's going to miss the first four games, that's official. But when he comes back, even if he comes back week five, given the timeline we know it's a severe high ankle so most players don't come back right away as their pre injury selves they usually have about a 20% dip in their performance and with the severe high ankles usually a 20 25% re injury risk in season. So all of those numbers are pretty high. The other aspect to it is usually you'll see a ramp up in their touches while the other running backs on the team, whether that's Pollard or someone else, get more of the workload in the interim. So I do, I do think Tony Pollard deserves a bump up and Tajai Spears very hard to justify drafting at this point.
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A
You know I have to squeeze in a Raven here with you on I'm not going to ask about Lamar Jackson's foot getting stepped on because that seems to be a non issue. I am not stressing about it. I want that clear and on the record. But I do want to ask you about Isaiah Likely because I was really expecting big things from Likely this season. I still am to a degree but like I went into this offseason saying like I think he explodes this year. I think if Mark Andrews ever misses anytime Likely is going to be like a top three tight end in fantasy like that is how strongly I feel about his talent and his fit in this offense. And then he breaks a bone in his foot and is and I as somebody who's currently dealing with a small fracture in my foot who is not a professional athlete, I can relate to how, you know, frustrating and difficult it can be to navigate that. So when you look at somebody like Likely, I believe they said he's not going on IR so they do expect him back early in the season. But in terms of effectiveness, is there like a point in time where we would think he gets back to 100% and maybe is taking some of that workload away from Mark Andrews is that sooner rather than later? What do we make of the broken foot?
- [25:16]
C
Yeah, so the most common injury here is going to be a Jones fracture. And assuming that is kind of the the most likely the average on these even though six weeks is possible, the average is eight. Six weeks would have put him back for about week one. Now eight weeks puts him closer to week three. He is reportedly not going to be on the IR of the pup so therefore has a good chance of coming back in the first four weeks and our data was always projecting him week two to four as most likely. The real question though is as you said, performance and typically players do take about a month in terms of pass catching production to get back to where they were before. So I think he comes back. The data says week three is the most likely here and then after that you see a three to four game ramp up in terms of his efficiency, production and volume and then yes he could, depending on how they decide to use him, very much look like his old self.
- [26:11]
A
Mark Andrews, currently real time ADP, is tight end 7, about the 71st overall pick. So something to keep in mind with likely. You know given where he's at in his recovery, that Andrews is going kind of in that tier two like middle class or so of tight end. If you are worrying about injuries, this is a good episode to listen to. If you're worrying about making your lineups and optimizing them, let Autopilot help. Autopilot can manage your fantasy football lineup automatically so you never have to worry about last minute changes. Auto swap inactive players and ensure your lineup is always optimized even when you can't be online. Take control with the flexibility to approve lineup changes via email or let Autopilot handle everything. Stay ahead with my Playbook Autopilot available now for Fantasy Pros Premium subscribers@FantasyPros.com MyPlayBook or on the Fantasy Pros app. Try Premium for free right now by claiming your three day trial of fantasy pros premium@fantasypros.com premium. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Got through a lot of names for you. For Dr. Deepak China, I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Good luck in your final drafts this weekend. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [27:56]
B
I'm Jake Hofer and this is Back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight Whitetail hunting Pros, a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal accurate should you?
- [28:15]
A
That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand.
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Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast. I'm Dan, he's Ty. Hello and we're the solid verbal College Football Podcast. Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else and all the emotional support you need as a college football Join us all season long as we ride the roller coaster of this ridiculous sport. Listen to the solid verbal College Football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. We don't just love college football, Ty, we live it. Football is back. That's right, the new NFL season is.
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