FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast: Running Back Sleepers to Draft or Fade – Episode Summary
Episode: Fantasy Football Sleepers | Running Backs To Draft or Fade (Ep. 1657)
Date: August 18, 2025
Hosts: Chris Welsh, Pat Fitzmaurice, Jake Seeley
Theme: Identifying running back sleepers, values, deep sleepers, and fake sleepers for the 2025 fantasy football season
Overview
This episode dives deep into the world of fantasy football sleeper running backs as the hosts discuss value targets, deep options, and avoidable players. The trio not only covers the usual suspects but also tackles backfields marked by ambiguity, changing depth charts, and players trending up or down due to recent news and preseason usage. Listeners get a comprehensive look at which running backs to consider in the middle and late rounds, who has the upside to smash their cost, and who may be traps despite disguise as “sleepers.”
Main Discussion Points and Running Back Sleepers
1. Defining Value Sleepers (Rounds 6-9, RB Picks Outside Top-5 Rounds)
- Focus: RBs in the 6th-9th round range—guys not exciting as early picks but strong values for teams deploying Hero-RB, Zero-RB, or best ball strategies.
- Terminology:
- ECR = Expert Consensus Rank.
- ADP = Average Draft Position (aggregate from Yahoo, ESPN, etc.).
a. Javonte Williams (Dallas Cowboys)
- Jake’s Pick (03:42)
- Case for Williams: The team’s lack of confidence in alternatives (injured or unimpressive backups), and his role as potential lead back if healthy.
- Role Outlook: If he’s 90% of pre-injury self, could be a “fringe RB2 or RB3 value where he goes.”
- Risks: Addition of other backs via trade/free agency would worry Jake.
- Quote:
“If Javonte Williams is even a fringe RB2 or RB3 where he’s going in this range…he’s number one in like, hey, this is a value.”
— Jake Seeley [04:09] - Pat’s View: The risk seems adequately “baked in” at his price, but it’s not obvious the old Javonte is back. Opportunity in a strong offense is enticing, but health/competition remain question marks.
“We have not exactly got overwhelming affirmation that the old Javonte is back. But we also haven’t heard…that this guy looks totally cooked.”
— Pat Fitzmaurice [09:15]
b. Tony Pollard (Tennessee Titans)
- Pat’s Pick (10:26)
- Pollard is a Value, Not a Sleeper:
“Don’t yell at me in the YouTube comments about picking Tony Pollard as a sleeper…he's a value pick.”
— Pat Fitzmaurice [10:26] - Upside factors: Spears’ injury, thin depth, soft early schedule, improved O-line, and big Week 17 matchup (Saints D was weak vs. run).
- Jake’s Skepticism:
“It’s a wet fart came to mind.”
“He's a fine RB2. That’s all he’s going to be.”
— Jake Seeley [14:04] - Best Use Case: Roster construction; as a safe third RB, or as depth behind risky RB2s.
- Pat’s Take: He’s currently undervalued:
“He should go ahead of where his ADP is. He’s kind of a target for me right now.”
— Pat Fitzmaurice [13:00]
c. Travis Etienne (Jacksonville Jaguars)
- Jake’s Pick (22:01)
- Situation: Uncertainty in the Jags backfield means everyone is undervalued; Etienne’s price reflects risk but includes pass-game upside.
- Pat’s Outlook: A “wide range of outcomes” – could be a starter or a waiver drop, but cost is low enough for upside:
“I can imagine him being an every week fantasy starter. I could imagine him being a guy people are waiving like three weeks into the season.”
— Pat Fitzmaurice [24:26]
d. Zach Charbonnet (Seattle Seahawks)
- Pat’s Pick (29:15)
- Reasoning: Seattle wants to run, has upgraded their OL, and Charbonnet has flashed when given touches. Health issues with Kenneth Walker make backup attractive as both standalone and handcuff value.
- Jake’s View: Recent news and preseason has him moving back in; Charbonnet “should be one of the first [handcuffs] off the board.”
“If anything happened to [Kenneth] Walker, Charbonnet might have some standalone value…could be a monster if Walker were to miss.”
— Pat Fitzmaurice [31:13]
2. Deep Sleeper Running Backs (Outside Top-36, Late-Round/Endgame Plays)
a. Austin Ekeler (Washington Commanders)
- Jake’s Pick (34:31)
- Key Point: Nobody is talking about Ekeler; his role is stable, and he was still productive when healthy (“RB3½ in PPR,” [35:00]).
- Quote:
“Austin Ekeler is just being overlooked. Period. End of statement this year.”
— Jake Seeley [34:51] - Pat Adds: “He’s not the guy threatened [by Jacory Croskey Merritt]…Eckler’s role is going to be the same.”
b. Jacory Croskey-Merritt ("Bill", Washington Commanders)
- Pat’s Pick (36:28)
- Riser Alert: Preseason darling; late-round pick, tremendous buzz. Could push Brian Robinson off the roster.
- Athletic Pedigree: 4.45 speed, 41.5” vertical.
- Usage Watch: Flying up draft boards—risk is a committee backfield, but cost is “still way too low.”
- Quote:
“He just might end up being a starting running back for an up-and-coming offense…and you can get him well into the double-digit rounds.”
— Pat Fitzmaurice [39:09] - Jake’s Perspective: If all are active, it’s a messy, avoidable committee, but Merit is “the upside play if Robinson is gone.”
c. DJ Giddens (Indianapolis Colts)
- Jake’s Pick (44:16)
- Handcuff Sensation: Taylor has missed time each of the last three years. Giddens would see David Montgomery-style volume if Taylor goes down.
- Quote:
“If DJ Giddens has to step in…he will be a Top 20 running back.”
— Jake Seeley [45:22] - Supporting Evidence: Good pass-protection marks in camp, immediate handcuff appeal (Pat Fitzmaurice [46:01]).
d. Braylon Allen (NY Jets)
- Pat’s Pick (47:49)
- Profile: Super young, bruising back, former freshman phenom at Wisconsin, possible “thumper” and goal-line specialist.
- Opportunity: Jets have discussed multiple RBs; injury or change in usage could make Allen a sudden workhorse.
- Quote:
“He could potentially score quite a few touchdowns this year.”
— Pat Fitzmaurice [49:03] - Jake’s Take:
“If something happened to Breece Hall…Braylon Allen is going to step in and be an RB2.”
— Jake Seeley [49:38]
e. Ollie Gordon (Miami Dolphins)
- Jake’s Pick (52:52)
- Rookie Watch: Fits Mostert’s former role, showed more than backfield competitors in preseason.
- Research: Once considered a top prospect, Gordon flashed Oklahoma State ceiling; Jalen Wright losing ground.
- Quote:
“If this keeps up, it might even be week one that Gordon takes that #2 role…he should be drafted in every league right now.”
— Jake Seeley [54:51] - Pat’s View: Already has moved on from Jalen Wright—Ollie has shown difference-making ability and a Jamal Williams-like profile ([55:38]).
f. Bashaw Tootin (Jacksonville Jaguars)
- Pat’s Pick (55:56)
- Freak Athlete, Opportunity: 4.32 speed, high RAS; in a “murky” backfield, could overtake incumbent RBs.
- Quote:
“Tutin is explosive man, has good contact balance for a smaller back and he catches passes…don’t mind throwing a dart in the double digit rounds at a freaky athlete in this murky backfield.”
— Pat Fitzmaurice [56:49] - Jake’s Counterpoint: (Next section) Not anti-Tootin, but wants him to go after clear backup RBs and is concerned about role/pass blocking, “gets chopped down at the knees.”
3. "Fake" Sleepers or Fades – Beware These Names
a. Bashaw Tootin (Jake’s Doom "Fade in Disguise")
- Jake’s Take (58:31)
- Notion: Athletic testers like Tootin aren’t always successful. “Can’t get past Bigsby and Etienne” is a concern, as is poor blocking/tackling.
- Value Argument: Don’t take him ahead of known backups like Will Shipley, DJ Giddens, or Taj Brooks, as you’re “paying for a dream, not a job.”
- Pat's Rebuttal: “Tutin doesn’t necessarily need an injury to vault to the head of the class. That’s the thing.”
b. Brian Robinson (Washington Commanders, Pat’s Fade)
- Pat's Case (61:44)
- Warning: Preseason buzz that Robinson is being shopped by team, with Croskey-Merritt surging, makes Robinson a very risky middle-round pick.
- Draft Table Danger:
“People start whispering at the table…‘you ever hear of Jacory Croskey Merritt?’”
— Pat Fitzmaurice [61:44] - Best-case: In a committee, still touchdown dependent and not much upside.
- Opportunity Cost: Going around “the last wide receivers you feel good about drafting.”
Notable Quotes and Moments
- Jake on Pollard:
“It's a wet fart came to mind...he’s a fine RB2. That's all he's going to be.”
[14:04] - Pat on Meritt:
"The drumbeat with Jacory Croskey Merritt has just gotten too loud to ignore. This guy goes by the nickname Bill, by the way..."
[37:09] - Jake on Giddens:
“…he will be a Top 20 running back because they are going to turn to him 18 times a game.”
[45:22] - Pat on Braylon Allen:
"He could potentially score quite a few touchdowns this year. And I think there's like substantial upside..."
[49:03] - Jake on Ollie Gordon:
“...if you strip the names off the jerseys, anybody at home would be like, that guy’s better than that guy. And the guy that you’d be pointing to...is Ollie Gordon.”
[53:50]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 03:35 – Episode setup, defining sleepers, approach
- 04:09 – Javonte Williams discussion (Jake & Pat)
- 10:26 – Tony Pollard as value (Pat)
- 14:04 – Jake's skepticism on Pollard’s ceiling
- 22:01 – Travis Etienne/Jaguars backfield debate
- 29:15 – Zach Charbonnet profile (Pat)
- 34:31 – Deep Sleepers section begins: Austin Ekeler (Jake)
- 36:28 – Jacory Croskey-Merritt “Bill” (Pat)
- 44:16 – DJ Giddens as Taylor handcuff (Jake)
- 47:49 – Braylon Allen’s role on the Jets (Pat)
- 52:52 – Ollie Gordon’s sleeper candidacy on Dolphins (Jake)
- 55:56 – Bashaw Tootin, athletic upside and risks (Pat)
- 58:31 – Fake sleeper/fade: Bashaw Tootin (Jake)
- 61:44 – Fake sleeper/fade: Brian Robinson (Pat)
Flow & Advice Takeaways
- Strategy is king: Roster construction impacts value—balance upside with dependable production.
- Cost sensitivity: Most deep/sleeper picks are only good if the price stays reasonable; late-weekend/next-week ADP swings could alter which RBs are true values.
- Ambiguous backfields = opportunity: Unclear situations (Washington, Jacksonville, Seattle, Miami, Jets) mean draft prices lag behind potential roles.
- Don’t pay up for uncertainty: If buzz turns these names into middle-round picks, pass—opportunity cost rises.
- Handcuff snipe: Prioritize handcuffs with a clear path to RB1 touches if the starter misses time.
- Fades matter: Robinson, Tootin (if prices spike), and any RB in a muddled, low-usage committee face “doom” risk.
Listener Engagement
Final words from Chris Welsh:
"Your favorite from this episode, your number one favorite RB sleeper below and drop some that you think we didn't talk about that we should have in the comments."
For more rankings, cheat sheets, and draft tools, check out:
- FantasyPros running back rankings
- Draft Assistant and Premium features at fantasypros.com.
Contributors:
- Chris Welsh (Host, neutral and fun tone)
- Pat Fitzmaurice (Measured, data-driven, optimistic on value)
- Jake Seeley (Outspoken, skeptical, construction first, vivid analogies)
Set yourself up with these RB sleepers, but don’t ignore roster build and shifting ADP over the next two draft weekends!