FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast — Episode 1678

"High-Upside Fantasy Football Draft Picks | Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates"
Date: August 30, 2025
Host: Ryan Wormley (A)
Guests/Co-Hosts: Derrick Brown (Debro, B), Tom Strachan (C)

Overview

In this lively episode, Ryan Wormley, Derrick Brown, and Tom Strachan break down the 2025 wide receiver (WR) breakout candidates who could define fantasy seasons and win leagues. They focus on a dozen names across categories: second-year breakout WRs, players “behind an alpha” who need a situational boost, and true league-winner types hiding in plain sight. The crew debate rankings, share stats, and offer pointed opinions on upside, value, and risk for each player.

Key Segments & Insights

1. Second-Year Wide Receiver Breakouts

(Starts ~01:38)

Ricky Pearsall (49ers)

• Debro’s Pick: “He flashed in the final two weeks of last year: WR7, WR14…30% first read target share, 2.84 yards per route run…He's going to be the guy competing with George Kittle for the team lead in targets. Second-year breakout is here, boys.” [01:38]
• ADP Talk: Real-time ADP is WR35, Debro would rank as high as WR26.
• Tom’s Take: More measured—notes he “didn't really earn targets at an astronomical rate last year... but I do believe he can take the leap this year having a much cleaner offseason.” [03:31]
• Head-to-Heads: Pearsall vs. Chris Olave: Tom prefers Pearsall.
  Pearsall vs. Jameson Williams: Room split.

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

• Tom’s Pick: Leans in with Rice’s suspension: “I just think he's primed…huge time for Xavier Worthy to establish himself, develop a role…all offseason, Mahomes has emphasized improving the deep ball…I’m very much buying." [05:55–07:37]
• Debro's Skepticism: Sees limited upside: “I just don't see any meat on the bone where you're drafting him...if Mahomes doesn't bounce back, it won't matter…Worthy didn’t separate as a downfield threat.” [08:01]

Jalen Coker (Panthers)

• Tom & Debro Both Pick: Coker moves way up due to opportunity after Adam Thielen trade.
• Tom: “I've been hammering Jalen Coker in the late rounds…Coker is always going to be a little bit boom or bust…but the Panthers trading Thielen speaks volumes.” [15:10]
• Debro: "He is the Carolina Panthers WR2...again, we bank on talented rookies, we bank on those guys in the second year for sophomore breakouts. Jalen Coker is the one where you're making that bet for basically free." [17:26]

2. Breakouts Behind an Alpha / Needing Opportunity

(Starts ~19:59)

Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers)

• Debro’s Pick: “It’s all lined up—Godwin’s health is a question, Jalen McMillan hurt, and Egbuka has first-round pedigree...the runway has been cleared, man.” [20:37]
• Ranking Aggression: Moves up to try to stay ahead of consensus as ADP climbs.
• Tom: “I wouldn’t be surprised if he leads the Bucs in catches and yards. Talent wins out.” [23:06]

Jalen Waddle (Dolphins)

• Tom’s Case: “Easy argument…Fins likely to pass more with bad defense. Waddle led team in yards per target, yards per reception, just needed the ball more…Vibes around Tyreek Hill aren’t good; Waddle and Tua have spent a lot of time together." [25:34]
• Debro: “I have Waddle ranked ahead of Tyreek Hill. I think there’s a non-zero chance Tyreek pulls an AB and is gone midseason…Waddle could be a 100-catch guy.” [27:07]

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

• Debro’s Deep Sleeper: “Big lane for Joshua Palmer this year…amongst WRs: 16th in separation, 12th in route win rate. Bills see more man than anyone—Palmer fits that role perfectly… Perimeter guy, tied to Josh Allen, all day.” [28:26]
• Tom’s Take: Likes Palmer as a late-round Best Ball pick, thinks he could be most valuable Bills' WR.

Darnell Mooney (Falcons)

• Tom: “He averaged 12.1 PPR/game last year… Falcons will play 3WR sets at one of the league’s highest rates… I think the Falcons will pass plenty, I'm happy to wait for Mooney.” [32:19]
• Debro: “It's a consolidated passing attack: Drake London & Darnell Mooney at the top...With Penix, Mooney could have huge spike weeks.” [33:40]

3. League Winners Hiding in Plain Sight

(Starts ~35:04)

Zay Flowers (Ravens)

• Debro: “If he was on another team, he’d be ranked higher…Per route, he’s amazing: 14th in target share, 17th yards per route run, 5th in separation…Just feature the man, Baltimore.” [35:04]
• Tom: “Positive regression coming—seven end zone targets, only two TDs. If the Ravens shift priorities, he has the upside to smash. But the WR range around Zay is loaded—I double-dip there.” [36:59]
• Wormley: Out at cost. “I do not see a path to significant red zone usage…the priorities for the Ravens close to scoring are Henry, Andrews, Likely, Hopkins, Lamar…ceiling looks capped.” [38:34]
• Debro: “I want to be crystal clear—if I can get him as a WR3, I’ll take that swing, but not at a WR2 cost.” [41:15]

George Pickens (Cowboys)

• Tom: “Now he's going to Dallas—top three in passes per game…he ranked sixth in YAC/reception…Dallas will use him more creatively, and the CD Lamb effect on Pickens is huge. We'll be wondering why Pickens wasn't going higher.” [43:05]
• Debro: “Top 15 WR for me. He's the NFC T. Higgins. Pickens is going to be awesome—volume, talent, contract year.” [45:09]
• Quick Would-You-Rathers: Tom takes Pickens over Tyreek, Marvin Harrison Jr.

Devonta Smith (Eagles)

• Debro: “Disrespected. Wide receiver 15, 20, 14 in PPG last 3 years…If AJ Brown misses time, DeVonta Smith is a league-winner in plain sight…in 2 games without Brown: 29.4% target share, 58% air yards, WR8 pace.” [47:47]
• Tom: “People don't appreciate how good he is…huge contingent value if Brown or Goddard miss time. High ceiling, high floor—good players win leagues.” [50:38]

Travis Hunter (Jaguars)

• Tom: “Best pure upside swing. Yes, defensive snaps are a question, but Liam Coen didn’t trade up for a corner…Jags need firepower, Hunter will be a full-time WR, and he can win your league if it hits.” [51:50]
• Wormley: Cites own hesitation—has invested rookie optimism elsewhere (McMillan), but agrees he fits the “hidden league winner” archetype.
• Debro: “I have him at WR25. You don’t trade up that far for a cornerback. He’s the difference-maker the Jags need. They need points.” [55:25]

4. Mailbag: “Pure Hype” Players (e.g. Cedric Tillman)

Starts ~58:37

• Debro: “I’m out. Tillman’s raw stats were all volume-driven. Metrics are terrible: 82nd in separation, 90th in route win rate.”
• Tom: Tilman’s price is appealing ("cheaper than Jerry Jeudy"), but generally avoids Cleveland WRs.

Notable Quotes

• Debro on Coker: “Jalen Coker is the one where you're making that bet for basically free.” [17:26]
• Tom on Worthy: "I'm very much buying Xavier Worthy at his price in redraft to get you off to a strong start." [07:37]
• Wormley on Zay Flowers: “He's got talent. Love the player. Not...Zay Flowers the fantasy investment.” [42:37]
• Debro on Joshua Palmer: “You’re gonna give me a perimeter guy that can separate with tied to freaking Josh Allen all day. Let’s go.” [30:41]
• Tom on Hunter: “If it works, Hunter’s the guy who can win your league—and you didn’t pay for it.” [54:48]

Timestamps of Key Sections

• [01:38] Second-year WR breakouts: Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Worthy, Jalen Coker
• [19:59] Breakouts behind an alpha: Emeka Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, Darnell Mooney
• [35:04] League winners: Zay Flowers, George Pickens, Devonta Smith, Travis Hunter
• [58:37] Mailbag: Handling “pure hype” WRs (Cedric Tillman et al.)

Tone & Vibe

• Spirited, data-driven debate between hosts.
• No-nonsense, occasionally blunt, but always insightful.
• Honest about risk and upside ("I'm out;" "I'm not paying WR2 price;" "He can be a WR3 weekly").
• Jargon and advanced metrics abound, but accessible for serious fantasy players.

Summary/Takeaways

The FantasyPros team delivers a packed episode spotlighting WRs with breakout and league-winning upside for 2025, focusing on value in the mid and late rounds. They blend analytics with actionable context on team situations, injuries, and role vacuums. While they disagree on a few player costs, the shared thread is aggressively targeting talented players on the ascent, especially sophomores and those whose ADPs lag behind their true ceilings.

Targets for 2025:

• Must-targets:
  • Ricky Pearsall, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen Coker
  • George Pickens, Devonta Smith, Travis Hunter (high-upside swings)
• Potentially Overhyped/Avoid:
  • Cedric Tillman, other "volume perfume" WRs without underlying metrics
• Double-dip WR Range:
  • Zay Flowers, Jalen Waddle, Calvin Ridley, Jameson Williams, Teddaroa

Actionable Advice:
Stay fluid with your approach, target strong talent with a path to volume—and don’t be afraid to swing for upside in the middle rounds. Leverage uncertainty in depth charts to your advantage!

For expert rankings, advanced stat breakdowns, and up-to-date consensus tiers, visit fantasypros.com/rankings.