← FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
How To Win BIG at The 2026 Masters | Complete Betting Guide for Beginners & Experts (Ep. 1992)
00:52:38
Loading summary
Transcript79 lines
- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
B
Guaranteed human. With Vrbal's last minute deals, you can save over $50 on your spring getaway. So whether it's a mountain escape with friends, a family week at the beach, or sightseeing in a new city, there's still time to get great discounts. Book your next day now. Average savings $72 select homes only.
- [00:36]
A
Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmaurice here with Bo McBrayer. Bo hasn't retired yet, despite his torrid stretch of PGA Tour wagering, which is great news for the rest of us. It's Masters week. Poe, how are you feeling?
- [00:51]
C
I feel like I'm on a hot streak and it's the perfect week to enter with a win. I think I got my my runoffs and my fast greens out of my system. I'm ready. I'm ready to go. This is, this is a winners. The only winners get invited to the Masters. Here I am. I got my green jacket on. Oh wait, sorry. It's in the wash. I'm ecstatic. It's my favorite week of the year. It's. It's Masters week. Come on, Pat.
- [01:19]
A
It is a great week and you fatten your bankroll you going into Masters week and you know, in just a minute we're going to plunge into our Masters betting preview. Bo and I love the Masters as much as you all do, so it feels like Christmas around here. We'll have a great many thoughts on who to bet, who not to bet, and why. But first, a quick recap of the Valero Texas Open. JJ Spahn wins the Valero Texas Open on a soggy Sunday in San Antonio, edging out Robert McIntyre, Matt Wallace and Michael Kim. If you had a sense of deja vu on Sunday, maybe it's AJ Spun also edged out Robert McIntyre on a soggy Sunday at last year's US Open, winning by two shots at Oakmonts at the Valero. McIntyre took a four shot lead into the weekend after the first two rounds. Then came the rain on Saturday. Play was suspended, forcing everyone to play about a round and a half on Sunday. Matt Wallace got in the clubhouse with a lead at minus 16. A bogey on the 15th hole dropped spawn two shots behind the leader, but he birdied the par three 16th, then eagled the short par four 17th, drove the green, made the putt, took the lead, Spawn then par the long par five 18th. McIntyre was one shot back going into the 18th hole. He hit a big drive down the middle, but then badly hooked A fairway Wood got to take a free drop away from the grandstands, hit a wedge to 30ft. But as birdie putt, missed shorts and left, and J.J. spawn got his first victory since that memorable U.S. open at Oakmont. Spawn hadn't finished top 20 in other. Any other 20, 26 tournaments, but he brought his A game to the Valero. Bo. You had a ticket on JJ Spawn. You were drinking champagne Sunday night. I had a ticket on Robert McIntyre. I was drinking my own salty tears. How was the celebration? And what were your takeaways from the Valero Texas Open?
- [03:17]
C
Yeah, champagne's from the champagne region of France, and I'm in Northern California, so we just have really, really, really good sparkling wine. That's how I celebrated it. It's just good to get a win. JJ Spawn, I pretty much had written off because he was kind of hovering around the lead, but hadn't really made a charge. That bogey that dropped him to two back, I thought that was it. And then 16, 17, 18, he just decided to turn on the afterburners and clutch city. That's JJ Spawn at the Valero Texas Open for the second time now. He's won that tournament. Horses for courses, baby. That's. That's what I was banking on.38 to 1. Spawn had a really good 2025 season. Had kind of started off sluggish as far as results go, but he was looking good this year. He just hadn't had the good finishes to account for that. And I just. I thought that this is the kind of tournament where he could find his groove, and he did. So I also was intrigued with Robert McIntyre. Bobby Mack is one of the. One of the good ones out there. He's going to get talked about in this. In this show as well for the Masters, but I just couldn't get there on Bobby Mack because of his overall game. Like his first two days, he was otherworldly with the irons. He was sticking iron shots close, and that's really not his game, so. So I was hoping that that would kind of dry up. And it did. Thankfully, the wet weather brought in Robert McIntyre into a different state of mind, apparently because he could not make birdies over the weekend despite soft conditions.
- [04:55]
A
Yeah. Figure the quality of play for the Scotsman going down in the rain, that's unusual. Yeah.
- [05:02]
C
Good for me, bad for you. Sorry, Pat.
- [05:06]
A
Well, it's time to get into our Masters betting preview. Let's start with a look at the host course, Augusta national in Northeast Georgia, near the Georgia South Carolina border. Arguably the greatest course in the world. Quite possibly the world's most beautiful golf course. It's a par 72 measuring 7565 yards, playing 10 yards longer than last year. There's some extreme elevation changes at Augusta. Some of the holes play shorter than the listed distance because they're so extremely downhill, such as the par 4 10th, and some play longer than the listed distance because they go sharply uphill, such as the 18th. Players are going to get a lot of uneven lies because of the rolling terrain at Augusta. Players who find the fairway on the par five 13th will often try to hit a fade when the ball is well above their feet. Not an easy task to try to hit a fade off a hook lie on number nine. Players are often hitting approach shots from a downhill lie to an elevated green. So, yeah, some interesting challenges at Augusta. Shot shaping is critical. Players who can work the ball both left to right and right to left have an advantage. Augusta national has wide fairways, and the rough is fairly light. For the most part, big hitters do have an advantage here. Distance off the tee helps create birdie and eagle opportunities on the par fives, and it sets up easier approaches on the long par fours. But distance off the tee probably matters less when Augusta is playing firm and fast. And it looks like Augusta is going to be firm and fast this week. We're more on that in a minute. The greens at Augusta national incredibly demanding. They're big, undulating bentgrass greens, and they are slick. It's not just about putting well at Augusta. It's about setting yourself up for makeable putts. Landing your approach shot on the right tier of each green, keeping the ball below the hole as much as you can because there are some putts you do not want to see at Augusta National. There are going to be a lot of three putts this week. We'll see some four putts. Ernie Ells famously six putted from three feet on the first hole ten years ago. Augusta national is well bunkered. These big, beautiful white sand bunkers aren't always the worst place to land an approach shot, but the fairway bunkers can be pretty treacherous at Augusta. Some of them have very steep faces and force you to hit less club than you'd like just so you can clear the face. And the soft sand can make it hard to flush an iron or a wedge from out of a fairway bunker. And chipping ability always critical at Augusta because of the runoff areas that force you to hit tricky chips from tight lies. Also critical this week. Par 5 scoring par fives are gettable in two, especially the ones of the back nine, 13th and 15th holes. But poor approach shots might find the water on those holes. And as for the par 5s on the front nine, number two gives you a downhill approach shots to a triangle shaped green. Number eight asked you to hit a blind, uphill approach to a green guarded by mounds on either side. Par threes here have made for some great drama over the years, especially the two on the back nine. Number 12 widely regarded as one of the best par threes in the world. Only 155 yards long, but you're hitting over Ray's Creek into a very shallow green and the wind can be hard to judge. Number 16 roughly 170 yards long, depending on the pin placement. There's a pond on the left and the back left. Sunday pin position makes this a fantastic risk reward. Hole down the stretch Experience tends to matter at Augusta National. Helps with reading putts A lot of the Masters veterans know how to use the slopes of the green to their advantage, landing their shots in spots where the contours will funnel the ball down toward the hole. We've seen players such as Fred Couples, Bernard Langer make cuts well into their 50s. A couple of years ago, Couples made the cut at age 63. Now, the weather forecast for Augusta, Georgia this week? Pretty ideal. Temperatures ranging from the low 70s to the mid 80s. No rain in the forecast. Winds of five to 10 miles an hour, maybe slightly breezier than that on Thursday. Not enough wind to punish the players, but enough to challenge them. And yeah, so bo Rory McElroy, your defending masters champion, finally broke through for a win at Augusta national last year, finishing 11 under par and beating Justin Rose in a playoff with a birdie on the first playoff hole. Scotty Scheffler won by four shots in 2024. He was also 11 under par. Jon Rahm won by four shots in 2023 with a score of minus 12. And Scotty Scheffler won the first of his two green jackets in 2022. He was three shots ahead of Rory that year at 10 under par. Hideki Matsuyama became the first Japanese player to win the Masters in 2021. He was also 10 under par. Bo, I'll let you take the discussion about an Augusta national any direction you want. The floor is yours.
- [10:14]
C
This golf course is immaculate. Not a blade of grass or blade of pine straw left out of place. The fairways are wide, but the short rough makes for long runoffs, and I think that's going to come into play with firm and fast conditions this week is you're still going to want guys who can hit the ball long and straight off the tee. And straight is kind of a misnomer because you have to shape the ball off the tee here. Right to left is primarily the shape of most of these driving holes. That's why we've seen a lot of left handed fade players like Bubba Watson win here, Phil Mickelson right handed draw. Players which are fewer and farther between these days tend to have an advantage at Augusta national if they can shape the ball right to left. That's a big advantage on these driving holes. That's to say if you can hit these fairways in the right spot to have an angle at these incredibly fast. Basically, I think, I can't remember who said it, but somebody said it's like putting on the hood of a Volkswagen Beetle. So that's, that's what you can expect. It's fun, fast, it's very, very sloped. And if you are above the hole here, you're dead. You cannot avoid three putts if you're above the hole on this golf course. And every hole has lots of bad places to put your approach shot and plenty of runoff areas. There are only 44 bunkers on this golf course, which is the sixth fewest on the tour. They're very well placed. You said well bunkered. That's not by quantity, that's by very precise measurements where they always seem to be in the driving landing area and then the ones that are around the greens, not always the worst place, like you said, but they are going to punish bad shots and you're going to, you're going to see guys really struggle at the short game here. This is the golf course where, yeah, the Houston Open gives you a little preview for fairway length grass around the greens where you get the runoff collection areas nowhere near the undulation and elevation changes of Augusta National. This course is for people who have seen the course, live the course, breathed the course with all the patrons, not fans, patrons roaming the grounds without cell phones. It is a whole different universe at the Masters. These guys have just as much of a mental challenge as it is going to be. Planning their way around one of the most immaculate properties in the world, just so happens to have one of the best golf courses, most well designed golf courses in the world. And there's only 91 guys in the field. It's, it's just going to be really tough on all of them. I'm expecting with these conditions, the winning score to Be in single digits under par. And I have a feeling that somebody is going to be slipping on a second or third green jacket rather than a first time winner. I think that the experience this year is going to matter more than anything.
- [13:11]
A
Yeah, I was just going to ask you to predict final score we haven't seen. Apparently they have not had any significant rain in Augusta for two weeks and are not going to get any this week. I saw Michael Kim, who does a nice little Twitter diary of his experiences on the PGA Tour. He chipped around today. His, his hip was feeling a little sore. He. So he just went out to the front nine and, and chipped and putted on all of those greens. Said the greens were firm, but like he knows they're not tournament firm yet. And he said it's amazing what they can do just in a few short hours to make that course play a lot faster than it does. Maybe during those practice rounds.
- [13:57]
C
That. And they have exact measurements of how close, how close they mow the grass. For every blade of grass on that property, there's an exact measurement down to the 16th of an inch for every level of grass. So they've got it dialed in. They're not going to reveal their cards before Thursday. You might get some practice rounds Tuesday, Wednesday that are going to show off the par three contest. They're going to have those greens running at the 13 stimp that they usually run the tournament at. It's going to be fast. It's going to be extremely fast. Uh, receptive. Still plenty receptive if you're, if you're landing in the right spot on the greens, but putting and chipping on these greens with all the undulations, with all the speed. It's going to be so difficult. And I cannot wait to see all of our favorite players go out there and win some and lose some. There's going to be some great shots. Augusta national is great because the best players will make birdies, they will make eagles. They will also make bogeys and double bogeys when they. This golf course rewards great shots and it punishes mercilessly the shots when you're out of position or you're taking too much risk. We've seen it year after year. Last year with Ludwig Oberg and Colin Morikawa, it was just. Or that. Was that the year before last? Yeah, they, they were in the, in the hunt. Now that was last year in the hunt. Get to Amen Corner. There's no patrons on Amen Corner. It's quiet. All you can hear are the birds and the bees buzzing around beautiful flowers. You can probably hear somebody cough 100 yards away and you get to Amen corner and it just breaks people down. We saw two water balls on 11 from Kalamorakawa and Ludwig Oberg. Right as it starts to get serious on Sunday, the guys who haven't seen this property before are going to shrink. They're going to wither. It's just, it's, it happens every single year. You might get a guy who comes out hot and then the pressure hits, it just kicks in and all of a sudden the cream rises to the top every time.
- [16:07]
A
Winning score, nine under par. I'm going to go with eight.
- [16:12]
C
Yeah, I think we're on the same, we're on the same page here for sure.
- [16:16]
A
Masters odds coming up in a moment. But first I want to mention that after I hit an outright this week at the Masters, I'm going to celebrate on Sunday night with a filet mignon from Omaha Steaks. I have found Omaha Steaks superior to the steaks I get from my local grocery store. The filets mignon from Omaha Steaks have carried. They've earned the coveted distinction of USDA certified very tender. With Omaha Steaks in your freezer, you're always mere minutes away from a quality dinner and every purchase is a risk free win with Omaha Steaks, 100% satisfaction guarantee. You can order with complete confidence. And Omaha Steaks has a wide variety of options from handcrafted steaks to convenient comfort meals like their fully cooked beef, pot roast, meat lovers, lasagna, beef, shepherd's pie and more. They also carry those mouthwatering burgers, chicken, pork, seafood, dessert and easy to prepare comfort food. Omaha Steaks is a family owned company that gets it. With over 100 years of expertise, Omaha Steaks helps you get dinner done with delicious everyday proteins your family will love. Taste the Omaha Steaks difference and never settle for grocery proteins again. Get flavorful, high quality proteins delivered by visiting OmahaSteaks.com/$35 off when you use the promo code pros at checkout. That's omahasteaks.com promo code pros terms apply C site for details.
- [17:46]
B
And Doug, there's nowhere I wouldn't go to help someone customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual. Even if it means sitting front row at a comedy show.
- [17:56]
A
Hey everyone, check out this guy and his bird. What is this, your first date?
- [17:59]
C
Oh, no.
- [18:00]
B
We help people customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual together. We're married. Me to a human, him to a bird.
- [18:06]
A
Yeah. The bird looks out of your league anyways.
- [18:08]
B
Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty
- [18:11]
A
Liberty Liberty Liberty let's get to the odds for the Masters Please note that these odds are just a snapshot as of early Monday afternoon. The betting handle for the Masters is always big, so these odds are going to move around throughout the week. In the run up to Thursday tee times, Scotty Scheffler is plus 485, John Ram is plus 910, Bryson DeChambeau is plus 1075, Rory McElroy plus 1150, Ludwig Oberg plus 1650, Xander Shoffley is plus 1800, Cameron Young and Tommy Fleetwood are plus 2300 and Matt Fitzpatrick is plus 2350, Hideki Matsuyama plus 2700 and Colin Morikawa plus 3100. Those are your Masters favorites for 2026. Bo, which of them appeal to you?
- [19:03]
C
And honestly, obviously we get Scotty Scheffler plus 485. I can't touch him. He's number one in my model by a pretty good margin here. He just had a baby. I know it's not a distraction for the best player in the world, right? It is. It really is. Brand new baby. If he was expecting a baby still, I'd probably still bet on him if the baby's born. He still got a lot of stuff going on in his mind. Organizing time for as a prior champion, two green jackets in his closet. He's got a lot of responsibilities this week, namely young Remy who was just born a few days ago. I cannot bet on Scottie Scheffler this week. I just won't. I think I might get burned by that with if he slips on his third green jacket, then I'll tip my cap to him and just say that the number just wasn't right for what we've seen back to back performances outside the top 20, coming in out of form and as good as he is at Augusta National, I just can't do it. John Rahm was my early favorite until I saw that his line had gone from 15 to 1 to plus 9 10. If you can find Jon Rahm at 15 to 1, absolutely bet on him. But he's right now single digits and the defending champion of the Masters is really good at number two in my model. Really good across the board, every category. Rohr McElroy is plus 1150. That's where my bet's going first and foremost. And then Xander Schoffley who's looking to get three quarters of the way through the Career Grand Slam is coming in at 1800. He has a great game for this golf course. It's just those two guys have the best value for the buck. They're all in the top five or top ten in my model. I just cannot get to Rom or Scheffler with the way that this tournament set up. I can't get to Bryson 1075 for him. I think he's going to be. He's won twice on the live tour. I don't care. He's done well the last couple Masters. Before that, he couldn't. You couldn't even get him inside the top 20 at the Masters. I just can't do Bryson this week. Ludwig Oberg, what has he won? Every time he gets in the lead on a Sunday, it's not just shrivel and wilt. It's go swimming in. In the water. Ludwig Oberg is not going to win the Masters. He might get top five, he might get top 10. He's not going to win the Masters. I just have to be right locked in with Rory and Xander. Best values, the best bets, and I think one of them is going to get it.
- [21:38]
A
I think we're on a similar wavelength here. Scotty, you know, plus 485. You can't get him at a price like that very often. I loved when he was at plus 450 last year in the Open Championship, and I thought that was great value considering that those were some of the longest odds we had seen Scotty at all year. But like you said, the baby thing, and maybe more concerning than that, for me, Bo, just the tinkering with his grip that he's been doing lately. So like you said, last two tournaments, out of the top 20, last three tournaments, no top tens. So I know his scoring average at Augusta lifetime is 70.33. And he's been under par in 18 of his 24 career rounds at Augusta. I'm with you. I. I can't bet him. Rom has been hot, but like you, I. I want. I want 11 to one or longer.
- [22:35]
C
I want better. I love John Rom this week. I loved him going in until I looked at the books. Looking at the books, I was like, I'm going to wait and see where this goes. Because if he does slip, which is liable to happen with the way the line, the line moves this week, I will hit a little bit of Jon Rahm, but I'm getting Rory, the defending champion, all the pressure, all the pelican, the albatross off his back, and he's Coming in fresh green jacket. He's got media privileges out the wazoo to, to say, oh, yeah, let's, let's come back and run it again. Let's. Let's do it again. Now that I know how. Now that I know how to finish on Sunday at Augusta, let's do it again. I really don't think that 1150 is going to get any shorter or any longer for sure for Rory. If it slips to single digits like it might, then I've got it locked in at a much better value. I think Rory is the guy to beat this week. Honestly, it's interesting.
- [23:39]
A
I mean, he withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Championship. Arnold, excuse me, Arnold Palmer Invitational. I think he. Was it a back tweak or something like that. Showed up at the Players Championship the next week, but didn't fare especially well. Finished 46th. Uh, those were his last two tournaments. But look, Rory, we know he can flip the switch. And I just. I do like that now that he's finally won a green jacket and isn't carrying the weight on of the world on his shoulders as he drives down Magnolia Lane, maybe he'll be nice and loose when he teased it, tees it up on Thursday, Bo.
- [24:15]
C
I think he would. And a lot of people are saying, oh, don't bet him because returning champions don't have the best history here. This isn't your run of the mills returning champion. This isn't like when Danny Willett won. This is. This is the. This is a number two golfer in the world coming back after getting all the pressure taken off him last year career Grand Slam. And this is his. This is his tour of look how, Look, I mean, I can. I think he's more likely to win going away this year than he is doing poorly. That's how. That's how free I think he's going to feel.
- [24:51]
A
Interesting. I'm with you on DeChambeau. Like, maybe he's finally starting to crack the code at Augusta national, but there have just been too many struggles and, you know, finishing sixth and fifth the last two years. I know he got into the final twosome with Rory last year, but, you know, then he shot a 75 on Sunday, so. And Ramen DeChambeau, great form lately. How much stake do we put in a live tour form? No offense, live tour enthusiasts, but like, great, you beat Pat Perez. Is Pat Perez still on the live tour?
- [25:25]
C
Well, I don't know.
- [25:26]
A
You're not, you're not beating Xander and Ludwig out there.
- [25:30]
C
You know, and that's the thing is the live Tour. The farther we go away from those guys playing competitive golf on the PGA Tour, the worse they do when it comes down to majors. So we've seen that diminishing return year over year is when it was still fresh and they still had that competitive fire to them. A year two or even three in now we're, we're, we're deep in this, this remerge or whatever is going to happen and we're seeing some of the guys try to come back and it's, this is just they're trying to get back into real competitive fire because the live Tour, if you look at their standings, it's ROM and it's DeChambeau and everybody else is so far behind those two that it just shows you how little competition those two have the entire season. It's just, it's kind of a joke. And that's why we've seen Patrick Reed go to the DP World Tour as an avenue to come back to the PGA Tour where he can actually log some real rounds against real guys who are going to be on the PGA Tour very soon through their performance. You're not going to see very many guys come from the live Tour back to the PGA Tour unless they're prior history says that they're good enough to do that.
- [26:38]
A
Yeah. Now I'm very much with you on Xander Shafley. His strong all around game is well suited for tough venues. Won the PGA Championship in the Open Championship in 2024, so we know he's capable of closing the deal in majors. And the short game struggles that plague Shoffley in 2025 appear to be gone and arrives at Augusta national in good form. Last two tournaments, Shoff Lee finished third at the Players Championship and fourth at the Valspar, so things are lining up nicely. What about Cameron Young? Bo Superb golf over the last 10 months for Cam Young. Finished inside the top 10 at the Masters in two of the last three years, although he did miss the cut in 2025. I know a lot of people like him this week. Do you like him?
- [27:27]
C
Out of 75 players who made my first filter list, he's number 61. So he's only green in three categories out of 11. On approach, he's 56th. In these conditions that I've filtered through around the green, he's 66 out of 74. And short game, he's 72nd out of 74. Those two stats I've weighted to include bunker play and for fast greens. And I think it's the fast greens that throw Cameron Young all the way down to the bottom of this pile. And longer courses. Ironically, Cam Young struggles on longer golf courses because his strokes gained par five. Goes from top 10 in this field to 62nd on par five scoring. When it's a longer golf course. Cam Young is hot. He's playing the best golf of his life. His short game has made some kind of turnaround this year, but I don't think it's up to where it needs to be to do well at Augusta National. It. And I might. I might eat my words, but every way I look at this, Cameron Young is going to be a huge disappointment at. At cost. He's getting really, really short odds because of all the people laying money on him this week. I would just beware.
- [28:45]
A
Let's just cover all the guys in this group. I've seen people into Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood. I, I don't get it though. Just maybe for Fitzpatrick especially. Yeah, like, Fitzpatrick just not a lot of, like, he's. He's been okay. He's not, not really made any significant noise at the Masters ever. And you know, we know Fleetwood kind of has trouble closing the deal if you want to bet him for a top five or top ten. But even there, you're not getting a great price on him, I think. So I'm kind of off those guys. I mean, any, Any reason you see, to invest?
- [29:26]
C
Nope. And in fact, I would say Hideki Matsuyama is a prior winner. Is a much better, better bet at his. At his number. I'm kind of on the fence right now with betting him. He's. He's just not in great form right now, which is kind of why I'm apprehensive. But amazing short game. If he can. If he can get his approach game back in line. This is, this is really a good spot for him to regain that form because this is a guy who not only won here, he won in impressive fashion. And this is a place where he can find some good vibes. He's kind of gotten out of his way off the tee, but overall he's not that bad off the tee. He just. He's run into some tight golf courses where he wasn't in good form and it exposed it. Augusta national is not going to expose his off the tee game as much as it is his approach game. And then his world class short game.
- [30:22]
A
Yeah. Ranks first in scrambling, but right now, 105th in strokes gained off the tee outside the top 75 in both distance and accuracy.
- [30:32]
C
Yeah. And 51st in three putt avoidance is a little scary. He's really good at chipping. But three putts on this golf course are a killer. They're really easy to do too because of how fast and undulating the greens are. I'm on the fence with Hidecki. He's on the outside looking in. But he's a better bet than the two Englishmen that you mentioned where I'm just like, okay, yeah, they're okay for a placement bet, but you're getting no value because both of them have played well in recent months that are getting a lot of support from the betting market.
- [31:05]
A
Yeah, the one guy we haven't mentioned, Colin Morikawa, he's still not guaranteed to play.
- [31:09]
C
He's, he's, he's probably going to withdraw.
- [31:13]
A
Yeah, he said he was day to day and it was not sounding very encouraging, so I wasn't going to bet him anyway. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Let's look at more the odds for the Masters as of early Monday afternoon. We've got Robert McIntyre at +3400. Minwu Lee and Justin Rose +3500. Brooks Koepka is +3700. Jordan Spieth and Masters debutante Chris Got her up are plus 4200. Patrick Reed plus 4350. Victor Hovland plus 4500. Russell Henley plus 4700 Si Woo Kim plus 4900 Justin Thomas plus 5300 Akshay Bhatia plus 5700. Patrick Cantlay plus 5800 and Adam Scott plus 6000. What about this group bo who jumps out?
- [32:01]
C
So I have one guy who's won here before and a guy who should have won here before but hasn't yet. The first guy is Patrick Reed at +4300. He's playing really good golf on the DP World Tour. He's, that's his avenue to get back on the PGA Tour. Prior winner here, he's finished high here just about every year he's been here. He went to Augusta State. This is, this is a guy who is just a Masters specialist. Amazing short game, really accurate off the tee and on approach. His only thing is between his ears. He gets inside of his head sometimes, but as a more mature older golfer he, we've seen him stay pretty unflappable when it comes to playing the Masters, understanding Augusta national inside and out. I think he's going to make some noise this week. Plus 4300 is right where I would expect him to be and that's where I'm going to bet Him. And the other guy is Victor Hovland. He should have won this tournament a couple times now, but he's had one bad day that has sunk his ship. This guy is a ball striking extraordinaire and surprisingly has figured out some short game things that have plagued him over the years. I think that we're going to get a surprise performance out of Victor Hovland's short game this week to support his already great ball striking, especially if things are firm and fast. This guy with a long iron in his hand is lethal. And I think that the proximity of approach over 200 yards, that's where he's going to shine. He's going to be attacking these par fives. The, the par fours and par threes, those are ball striking type of holes where good iron players like him, like Scotty Scheffler, that's where they make their hay, is their scoring average on those holes that require good iron shots, it's just simply better. I think Victor Hovland at +4500 is the best value on this board. So I'm going to be attacking it.
- [33:54]
A
Interesting. Not worried that his form has not been superb this year.
- [34:00]
C
Not super far, but the ancillary stats around his performance, I think his stats are better than his results so far this year. I think he's just one, one week away from really showing what he's got now.
- [34:16]
A
You know, you don't have to talk me to Patrick Reed. I laddered him last year. Didn't get me the win, but did finish third. Yeah. Top five, top 10, top 20. So that was, that was pretty nice for Reed. Yeah, best short game in the world and he just second best.
- [34:34]
C
Second best behind one of my guys later.
- [34:37]
A
Yeah, but yeah, Reed won here in 2018, finished 15 under to edge Ricky Fowler by a stroke. He since finished top 10 in four of his for the last seven years and was third last year just two shots behind Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose. Bo. And I still remember, I can't remember if it was a birdie putt or an eagle foot, but it was about a three footer on number 13 and he three putted from there. Yeah, had he just knocked in that putt, he might have gone to the playoff with Those, those other two. So, Bo, I am interested in Robert McIntyre again with Augusta likely to be playing firm and fast. I mean, Bobby Mack played well at the Valero Texas Open until the course stopped playing firm and fast. Then he lost his lead when the rain arrived and the course softened up. I mean, he's third and scrambling on tour right now, sixth in strokes gained putting, and he's been good off the tee. Plus, we have seen left handers have success at Augusta National. Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Mike Weir. I mean, you would. You were talking about the importance of working the ball right to left. For the lefties, it's, it's left to right. If the lefties can hit a fade, nice edge for them. But yeah, McIntyre's 139th and Strokes gain and approach. I worry less about that if it's hard for everyone to hit these greens, which I think it might be this week.
- [36:00]
C
Yeah. What worries me about him is par five scoring. He's not a good scorer. And I think that where you're going to have to score this week with everything else being so firm and fast is on the par fives and even. It's more important when it's firm and fast to score on the par fives because they're going to be your only real chances at birdie or eagle and par five scoring. He's 60th in this field. That's what scares me on him, is that if you need to make birdies, you need to get 2, 8, 13 and 15. Those have to be circles on your card. I don't know that Robert McIntyre can get any circles on his card. And in this field, he's 54th on approach. In firm and fast conditions on longer golf courses, it's just not good enough. And his, his short game's good, his putting is okay, his driving distance is fine. It's. He's not a long hitter, he's not a short hitter. He's fine with distance. I just really worry about him scoring on the longer par fours and the par fives because when the courses get long, he doesn't just. He just doesn't score as well. And three putt avoidance, he's 59th out of 74 in my model. That's not good either. I cannot go and say this guy in the middle of the pack of my model. 38th is +3400. I just can't get there. I love Bobby Mack. I loved watching him play well last week. I just think this is a whole different animal. And he, he better have that approach game locked in like he did on Thursday and Friday last week, or he's not going to even make the cut.
- [37:32]
A
What about Minwu Lee? His price is. He's. His odds are shorter than I expected. Ranks 13th in driving distance, 6th and strokes gained off the tee, 37th. Excuse me. 27th in strokes gained putting. And Lee does have a very deft touch around the green, the profile that can win at Augusta if his bulky irons cooperate.
- [37:59]
C
And that's the thing is he's kind of in that same boat as Robert McIntyre, except he's got a little bit of that. He's got more distance than McIntyre, but he struggles scoring on par fives, which is strange for a guy of his ability off the tee. And with his short game being as good as it is, he's better at than McIntyre at three putt avoidance. He's green in that category. And he's number seven on the long par fours. That's a very good green flag for him. Struggles on par fives and on approach. He's near the bottom of this field on approach, which is a little scary because his irons have been pretty poor this year, which is probably why he gets to show off his chip in game so often and let the chef cook. I can't do it at the odds, but if he starts slipping into that 40 range 45 where Reed and, and, and the other guys are, Reed and Hovland, that's, that's the sweet spot for Minwi Lee. And even then Reed and Hovland are so much more appealing at their. Even with the same odds as Minwuli is. I'm getting great value on two guys that have been there before many times, and Reed even getting it done once than, than Minw Lee, who's kind of making a charge into better form this season. I just can't get there at the odds. That's way too short.
- [39:19]
A
I, I wish Beith were a little longer than 43 to 1 or whatever it is. Guy who early in his career seemed like he was born to play the Masters second in his debut, won it in 2015, had that horrible meltdown. Let Danny will it that one year. But like this guy, I want to say he's got what, eight top tens in 12 starts.
- [39:48]
C
So he's a magician around the greens. So. And his, his approach game is good and his off his off the tee troubles really don't hurt him here. That's kind of the reason is that he can spray the ball all over the yard. As long as not in the pine straw under the pine trees, he's fine. And the rest of his game is sharp. So I, I think that he's going to be there. Can we get there at the odds that are beyond the books right now? Gives me an adjustment just thinking about it.
- [40:14]
A
What about Akshay, who was Red hot not long ago, hasn't played since, you know, went to play the Hero Indian Open on the World Tour. And I think he missed the cuts, but obviously was red hot for a while there in what, late February, late February, early March. What about him? And what about Masters first timer Chris got her up.
- [40:43]
C
Those are two guys that I really want to like because I do like them. They've both shown great aptitude this season, taking both of their games to the next level. Akshay's short game worries me. He's good around the green, but when you include the whole short game with putting and bunker play, he's 53rd, that's, that's a little scary. And on longer golf courses that present those longer par fours, he's near the bottom of this pack. So there's lots of long par fours on this course. Every single one except for number four are over 440 yards. Leaves all but one nine out of ten par fours considered long par fours. And he's 64th on the long par fours. And that's just not good. I think he's going to struggle on the par fours, probably on the par threes as well. He's middle the pack, par five scoring, and his short game is not great. I don't know if I can do it with Akshay. Goderup is a first timer. And as much as I like him, I want him to do well. I don't know that he can really get around this course as well as he needs to, being at his first time here.
- [41:52]
A
We haven't seen a Masters first timer win since Fuzzy Zeller in 1979. And before Fuzzy won in 1979, it was 1935, the last first timer to win. So yeah, experience helps.
- [42:05]
C
Oberg a couple years ago was just about there. But again, this is why you get to Sunday. It's, you can lead, you can have a 54 hole lead as a newcomer, as a debutante, and the pressure just changes as soon as you hit hole 11 on Sunday. Everything this, the flip, the switch gets flipped and something is just in the water there. 11, 12 and 13. It's in the water. Raised Creek. Once you cross the Hogan bridge on number 12, it's just a different animal. Augusta national just eats these newcomers alive on Sunday. So I love Chris Goderup. I think his game fits Augusta national really well. But let's revisit that next year.
- [42:49]
A
Agreed. Now, we'll talk Masters long shots in just a moment, but first we've teamed
- [42:56]
C
up with Edge Boost, the leading debit card built specifically for gamers to bring you exclusive perks you won't want to miss. Edge Boost gives you a dedicated Visa debit card designed specifically for online gaming. Use it across US Licensed sportsbooks, DFS platforms, sweepstakes sites, authorized online casinos, poker operators and more. Why use edgeboost get up to a half a percent cash back on eligible deposits, real time deposits and instant transfers. 24-7365 fewer declined deposits on US licensed sportsbooks, DFS platforms and sweepstakes sites. No usage fees and keep your gaming bankroll separate from your main bank account. That's huge. The Edge Boost Visa debit card works at U.S. licensed sportsbooks, DFS platforms, sweepstakes websites and authorized land based casinos. We are committed to providing our users with the best tools in the industry for sports betting and that's why we partner with Edge Boost, which is a secure and seamless virtual wallet to store your betting funds separate from your main bank account and exclusive to betting pro users. Edge Boost is offering a $50 first deposit match. Sign up for Edge Boost today at Edgeboost BET and use promo code Fantasy to claim your exclusive offer. That's Edgeboost bet promo code fantasy for a $50 first deposit match. Deposit accounts are held at Cross river bank member FDIC and are insured up to a quarter million dollars standard aggregate. Daily limits start at up to a quarter million and upon review of additional documentation may be increased to as much as $1 million per day. Approval is not guaranteed and limits may be changed or reduced at any time. Higher limits do not increase FDI insurance coverage. The Edge Boost Visa debit card is issued by Crossover bank member FDIC pursuant to license from Visa.
- [44:47]
A
What about players with odds longer than 60 to 1? Bow who do you want to make a case for?
- [44:52]
C
There's two guys here, one another returning champion and a guy who I think is going to fit this course really well. Former Champion the best short game in the world, Cameron Smith, Aussie. Yeah, ball striking's come around this year a little bit. He's still got the best short game in the world. He got a green jacket for having the best short game in the world. He's just a math masters specialist and his off the T woes are not not going to kill him. His approach game has gotten a lot better over the years and this guy is so silky smooth. Putting, chipping, you name it. If he's got a wedge or a putter in his hand, it's lights out. 110 to one on Cam Smith. That's easy money, easy money. Top 20 top 10 kickers if you want to throw that in there. And from an Aussie to a Kiwi. Ryan Fox. Great fit for this golf course. Power to burn. Great approach game. His short game leaves a lot to be desired, but that's why he's baked in at 210 to 1.
- [45:53]
A
Interesting. So I'll give you a couple. Nikolai Hoygard 781 so Hoygard shot a 67 in his first Masters round two years ago, briefly held the lead, faded, finished 16th. But this guy has recorded top tens, I think four of them this year on a variety of course types and his game seems like a good fit for, for Augusta National. Statistically, he's been really solid all around this year. Corey Connors 781 I like him more for a top 10 or top 20. He's finished top 10 in four of his seven Masters appearances. That top 10. Yeah, but he's never finished top five. So Connors has broken par in 15 of his 28 Masters rounds. Just such a good ball striker and it's going to take precision ball striking this week. So also kind of like him for a first round leader bet for that reason, like a guy who's going to be able to hit it close perhaps and score like for that one round window. It's like the guys who can scramble for pars. They're going to be positioning themselves well for the weekend. But for a first round lead, I like Connors. Jacob Bridgman 861 Interesting that you can get a guy who, who's finished 18th or better in every event he's played this year at longer odds. Yeah, I know. Tough for a first timer to contend at Augusta, but man, Bridgman can put the lights out. Bo, we know that leads the tour in strokes gained putting, so he's interesting. And one more. Sungjae Im is 115 1. He finished second to Dustin Johnson in his master's debut in 2021. Im has finished or excuse me, that was late 2020.
- [47:44]
C
I believe that was the Fall Masters.
- [47:46]
A
The Fall the COVID Masters. But Im has finished inside the top 10 in three of his six master starts. Missed the first couple of months of the year with a wrist injury. Kind of looked rusty upon his return. Although he did finish fourth at the Valspar Championship, which was kind of encouraging. Just for a guy who seems to like this course. Ball 1151 odds seem pretty inviting.
- [48:09]
C
Yes.
- [48:11]
A
Now it's time for the Hard Rock Best Bets of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet. Here are our favorite bets this week Bo My Hard Rock Bet of the week is Xander Schoffley at 18 1. Who is your Hard Rock Bet of the week?
- [48:25]
C
I see your 18 to 1. Great value on Xander Shaft League best bet. My Hard Rock Bet of the week is Victor Hovland, 45 to 1. Another great value on a guy who hasn't won the Masters just like Xander, but should have won the Masters by now. So I think we're going to have some dueling value picks for the Hard Rock Bets of the Week and today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet Florida Sportsbook. Spring is in the air and that can only mean one thing. Baseball is back in full swing. Hard Rock Bet makes it easy to bet on America's pastime in just a few easy taps. It's not just picking winners. You can bet on home runs, strikeouts and even whether there's a run scored in the first inning for quick, fast paced action right out of the gate. And if you miss the first pitch, no problem. You can live bet every inning, every at bat, all the way to the final out. Maybe you're more into the NBA. The hard work is Hardwood is heating up as the playoff pushes on and with Hard Rock Bet, every night is a shot to build the same game parlay and score a major bucket. You might like the hot hand to drop 30, the big man to control the glass with a double double and the point guard to dish out five assists. However you draw it up, Hard Rock Bet gives you tons of ways to stack your picks into an epic same game parlay. If you're ever late to tip off, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet lets you live bet all game long from the first bucket to the final buzzer. Sign up today and double your winnings on your first 10 bets with a maximum of $50. That's right, double your winnings on your first 10 bets. So if you would have won a hundred bucks on your bet, now it's 200. Download the hard Rock Bet app today and get the party started.
- [50:01]
D
Payable and bonus bets Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by the Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and other states must be 21 plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-PLAY-WISE in Indiana. If you are someone you know as a gambling problem wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
- [50:30]
A
What does the rest of your early betting card look like, Bo? In addition to the Hovland bets.
- [50:35]
C
So I got Rory McElroy plus 1150 to go back to back, put the green jacket on himself. I got Xander Shafley also at 18 to 1. Patrick Reed 43 to 1. Cam Smith at 110 to 1, and Ryan Vox at 210 to 1.
- [50:52]
A
All right, I'm getting into the weeds here. In addition, in addition to betting Shoffley for an outright at 18 1, I'm betting him for a top 10 at plus 325. I've not bet Robert McIntyre to win this week, Bo. I want the odds to drift past 34 to 1. I think eventually they'll get there. Nothing yet. Jordan Spieth for a top five at plus 650. Nikolai Hoygard to win at 781 and plus 180 for a top 20. Harris English for a top 30, a plus 108. Conditions are going to be tough. English is a grinder, Bo. Great chipper and putter too, so I like him. Top 30 basically a little better than even money. Corey Connors for a top 20 at plus 172. I might throw a dart on Jake Knapp at 671 and possibly bet him for a top 10 at plus 415. And I'm betting Sungjae Im for a top 10 at plus 570. And how about this for a Masters parlay ball? Let me run this by you. I might throw a couple bucks on this fun, Scott. Scotty Scheffler for a top five. Xander Schoffley for a top ten. Jordan Spieth for a top 20 and Corey Connors for a top 20 for that four leg parlay, 32 to 1 odds.
- [52:07]
C
That would be fun. Just to trail. That would be fun.
- [52:11]
A
Now for our one and done picks. Bo crushed it on the betting front last week, but didn't feel fair as well. In the one and done, he had Russell Henley at the Valero. Henley missed the cut by a stroke. I didn't do very well either. I had Jordan Spieth. He finished tied for 63rd, good for a whopping $21,364. Not a banner week for us in the one in Dunbo, but a new day dawns. You have the honors at Augusta. Who are you taking?
- [52:36]
C
I'm going to take John Rum, the Spaniard.
- [52:40]
A
I think that's, that's the way to play it. According to Hoyle. Use the live Tour guys who our Master specialists. And I'm going to do the same. I'm going to use Patrick Reed.
- [52:50]
C
Good call.
- [52:52]
A
That's all for this week's Betting Pros PGA Podcast, the Economy Sized Masters Special. Thank you for being here with us. We hope you enjoy the Masters and are fruitful on your bets. Please join us again next week for our betting preview of the RBC Heritage. Until then, so long everyone.
- [53:11]
B
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast.
- [53:14]
C
If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and TikTok, eddingpros and Instagram eddingprosnfl. Also, subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com bettingpros.
- [53:42]
A
This is an I heart podcast.
- [53:45]
B
Guaranteed human.