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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
NFC Conference Championship Best Bets & Player Props (Ep. 1947)
00:19:19
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- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place your bets. This is me, Joey P. Joe P. Zapia and this is BP NFL. We just did our AFC championship game. Look ahead now. We're going to do the NFC version right here. Our best bets, our favorite props, some game stuff. We got all the touchdown calls, sgps. It's all right here for you. And don't forget right here on the Betting Pros channel, when you subscribe and you ring the bell till it goes ding, you can watch live our first half coverage of the AFC Championship game. Seth Wilcox, Scott Bogman will take you through the first half of that game. Their favorite bets, some in game live betting, but you can only do that if you're here on the channel, so subscribe to The Betting Pros YouTube right now. Gentlemen, we got a good contest here between division rivals meeting up for a third time here in this one, the Rams and the Seahawks. So Welsh, let's talk about it. I know you're bummed a little bit because you're 49ers, didn't quite make it there, but I don't know about you. I'd rather lose by a million than lose by a point.
- [01:03]
B
Yeah, that's a good point. I'd rather know that Brandon Iuk is driving 120 somewhere super happy not being a niner and losing by 40 than it being a close game and Brandon Iuk trying to suit up. That's what I, that's what I always say. I've actually always said that. So this is gross. I don't like this. I have to pick between two of the division rivals. One team I do hate a little bit more than the other. That actually is not going to influence this though, because I've been saying this for a while. I think the Rams are the best team in the NFL and I thought that for quite some time there, even though the playoffs have been a little squirrely, both games they've only won by three. You know, the Panthers thing almost got away from them like skin of their teeth, but they, I think that's kind of the testament to this team. And I think that offense, obviously, you know, the passing offense at the top of the league, I think they're monsters here and they are plus money. I love this spot. So my first bet, Mr. Joe Pizza Pia is going to be the Rams. We are going to go with Los Angeles Rams plus two and a half. I know Seattle is a tough place to play, but I think they're the best in the, in the NFL. Both of these matchups, by the way, these teams have obviously this will be the third matchup they've had this season. Both of the two matchups they've played has had a winning margin of one or two. They have split the series between these. I think there is a bit of a momentum loss also that's going on with Seattle. They're losing Charbonnet and I think the Rams, they're going to be able to hold this one. So I'm going to take the two and a half points in what has classically been close games throughout this entire series. And gross, we're going to have to pick a NFC team, NFC west team that is not the 49ers, but at least it's not the Seahawks.
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It's okay, Wash, I know this is a tough show for you. We appreciate your professionalism here on the program. All right, let's get to your first pick here. Andrew Erickson. What do you have for the people?
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I also like the Rams with the points in this matchup, but it's not my pick. I'm going with the total and I'm going to take the under at 47 and a half points because the odds makers have done a very bad job of projecting these Rams Seahawks games. Basically, any time that we've had games with a high total, it goes under and when they've been very low totals, it's gone over and it's also been whoever's been favored doesn't actually cover the spread. So again, another reason to back the Rams plus two and a half. But anytime the total between the Rams and Seahawks last two years has closed north of 42 and a half points, the game has gone under in those matchups at 42 points or lower. The game went over the total. So considering we're coming off a monstrous offensive explosion from both teams in the in the last time we saw them play is a game also that went to overtime. That's why you look at total it's at 47 and a half points when I don't think it's really a stretch to think, well we're probably going to get more of a 42 point game because that was the first matchup was a much lower scoring game when Sam Darnold had four interceptions. So I look at both these defenses, both ranked top five in the red zone. So I think that's where you're going to see the biggest impact from both defensive sides. Show up here, Mike McDonald and Chris Shula. Man, this guy Puts Sam Darnold through a blender. The last two years he's put Sam Darnold through a blender in these matchups. Whether it was with Sam Darnold with the Vikings or Sam Dollar with the Seahawks, Darnold has not played his best football offensively when facing this Rams defense. So I think the defense is dominant in the red zone, especially without Zach Charbonnet. I think that's a big loss in terms of Seattle's ability to convert in the red zone. If they're kicking more field goals than touchdowns. I think this game goes under 47 1/2 points. Both defenses allowing fewer than 21 points per game this year. I'm taking the under.
- [04:34]
A
All right, so the under for Andrew Erickson with his first pick. Welsh, let's go back to you. I know both you and Andrew have some feelings about Sam Darnold. Props you want to share. So we'll start with yours, which has to do with the past attempts for Darnold in this game.
- [04:47]
B
Yeah, I mean, I guess non traditional people are looking at like touchdowns or passing yards. I'm going to go with the pass attempts on Sam Darnold. I'm going to go over at 29.5. Darnold only had 17 pass attempts last week, so you could be like, why are we going over? Well, that game was over after the first kickoff. Unfortunately, Rashid Shahid takes it back. Niners are done. They were able to establish that running game. This team has had a great running game the entire season, but as mentioned before, there's no Zach Charbonnet. I think you're going to have to really ask yourselves how comfortable are they going to be unloading Ken Walker. But also I think the Rams can have a steady hold on this game. So that comes back to this team needing to throw the ball and Sam Darnold needing to throw the ball in the matchups, ironically, Seahawks versus the Rams, both of those. Sam Darnold has gone over this Pass attempt. Total 34 and 44 pass attempts in both those outings. So I think that is going to be another continuation. I think the Seahawks, whether it's a close gamer playing from behind, I think they're going to have to rely a little bit more on the passing game. So I really like the idea of him just having at least 30 pass attempts here. So that is my second bet here. Sam Darnold 29.5 overpass attempts.
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All right, so to you, Andrew Erickson, what's the best approach for Darnold in this game on your opinion he's going.
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To throw an interception. His last three games against the Rams he has been picked off seven times. That is so many interceptions for Sam Darnold against this Chris Shula led rams defense. Like Darnold's 1 and 3 against the Rams in the last four matchups. He has five passing touchdowns to the aforementioned seven interceptions which have all happened in the last three games. He has faced this Chris Shula led defense since Week 11. Darnold has nine passing touchdowns and eight interception. So he's really kind of fallen off significantly since his hot start of the year. You've kind of even seen that with jsn. His numbers have dipped down a little bit in the second half of the season. It was actually, I was actually surprised looking at some of the fantasy numbers that Puka actually finished ahead of Jackson, Smith, Jigba in the end through all 17 weeks of the season. So yeah, all the left tackles for the Seattle Seahawks are on the injury report this week and I expect Sam Darnold to be constantly under pressure and this is when we see him make mistakes. First career playoff to start last year in the Wild Car round against the Rams he was sacked nine times which was the most sacks taken in a playoff game all time. Sam Darnold against this Chris Shula led Rams defense. I know the Rams secondary is not good, I know they have a bunch of injuries, but that pass rush I think is going to get after Sam Darnold and force him into a mistake, especially if he's attempting over 30 pass attempts like Welsh talked about. So more pass attempts means more turns for opportunities for interceptions and I think that's going to happen here.
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Warranty.
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It's an energy someone gives off when their appliances and home systems are protected.
- [07:32]
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By an American home shield warranty. Don't worry, be warranty for 20% off plans. Visit hs.com listen see hs.com contracts for coverage details including limit amounts, fees, limitations and exclusions. All right. When it comes to the Rams, we all know we have to make some sort of Puka Nakua investment. Obviously last week a little disappointing because the weather, some issues there. Obviously it was a little bit little chilly in Chicago, a little different scenario here in Seattle. So let's talk about Puka Nakua. How do we want to approach him? Obviously the yardage troll is very high. So Welsh, in your opinion, what's the best bet you can make on Puka in this game?
- [08:04]
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I'm going to go to the receptions and by the way, the receptions weren't there last week but the targets were continuously there every single week, too. I look at the Rams, I go and I have this spot where I'm like, all right, look at those high numbers for Puka. Look at those sexy numbers for Devonte Adams. He can have five catches at plus money. You know, he'd been such a great red zone target, but what continuously happens is that never happens. He might, you know, spatter it out to a couple other guys, but it is Pukinakua three or four times every single drive, it feels like. So we are going to go with the receptions on Puka. He has caught eight or more balls and had 10 or more targets in six of his last seven games versus Seattle. He caught 12 and seven this year. Puka, he's been first, second and third read for Stafford over the last couple months. Obviously, him getting to the, you know, the top of the wide receiver ring and the fantasy side, he's. They, they have shown us the playbook. They are going to continuously lean on him. They move him around in the offense. I got another Puka bet that's going to be fun with this here in just a tiny bit. But Puka, eight receptions, it's such a big number. But believe me, you are going to get 12 to 14 targets from him in this game. And I really like this spot for him.
- [09:13]
A
All right, so that's the Rams through the air. What about on the ground? Andrew, what can Kyron Williams do in this game?
- [09:18]
C
Hopefully rush for over 54 and a half rushing yards, because that's the bet that I'm making here. Kyron has hit at least 54 rushing yards in nine of his last 10 games played. And he's hit the over in both matchups against the Seattle Seahawks this season. 70 rushing yards and 91 rushing yards. So I'm trying to wrap my mind around why this number is so low. I get the Seahawks have a really good run defense, but Kyron Williams has shown that he can overcome the specific matchup not just this year, but last year, too, when he also had 69 rushing yards at Seattle. So I just think this one is just too low. And when you look at the projections, they have Kyron well north of 60 rushing yards. So give me the over.
- [09:55]
A
All right, so those are the first three picks here for the guys. We got a bunch more to go, some touchdown calls, lots of fun stuff still to happen. But if you want to keep the fun going, make sure you go to our discord bettingpros.com chat. It's free. It's fun. You get expert advice. So whether you're new to wagering or you're an old grizzled vet, we got everything for you there. Every sport as well. We've got NHL, we got NBA, we got college hoops and of course NFL still going on. We got that little game called the super bowl coming up. So if you want to talk about it, see what the Sharps are in on and how you should approach it, go to our chat right now on Discord bettingpros.com chat join our Discord today. Next up here, Welsh. Now look, when it comes to Puka, it's not just getting him the ball on targets, it's just getting the ball in his hands. So what can we do with that? When it comes to Pukinaku in this.
- [10:40]
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Game, this might be the most fun one this week. So we went on receptions. I'm telling you, I wasn't jumping on yards. So what are we doing? We're going with rushing yards. This one is set at 4.5 and follow me here. Puka has had at least one rush attempt in five straight games. He has gone over five rushing yards in four of his last five games where he had those attempts. The last game played up against Seattle, he ripped off two rush attempts for 18. They want the ball in his hands. However, they're going to be able to do it. Hopefully both of these are going to be able to lock together and it's not going to be a situation where, you know, kind of like in last week's game where it's like they just couldn't, you know, get the targets to fly and they couldn't get it in Puka's hands. If that does happen, this bet seems even more likely. But they continuously are running stuff like this and this is a really good, strong defense. This is the exact type of play that they want to run. They've been doing it five straight weeks. We need one good rush attempt, but we've seen him get multiple rush attempts as well. He did against Seattle last time. So five plus yards for Puka Nukua rushing, That's a fourth bet.
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All right, Andrew Erickson, I know you're always good for at least one bets. A little off the reservation, a little outside the box. So what do you have for everybody in this game?
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Well, after hitting Keon Coleman anytime touchdown last week, I got to run it back with another long shot anytime touchdown. That was after he dropped a touchdown. He still ended up scoring later in the game. So I still love Keon Coleman even if everyone in Buffalo doesn't like him anymore. I'm still a kia.
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B
Ownership doesn't like him.
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Yeah, ownership doesn't like him. I'm gonna go with Terence ferguson anytime. Touchdown at plus 650 or plus 700 in some spots here as well. Ferguson scored the last time he played the Seattle Seahawks earlier in the year and he had an end zone target last week against the Bears totaled five targets. I thought it was interesting that he was still in the game late when Matthew Sav was chucking the ball down the field. He also out snapped Tyler Higby and Davis Allen. So it seems like Terence Ferguson, the snaps, the routes are trending in the right direction for them to use him more as a pass catcher. And specifically how he's been deployed in this offense. Averaged 17.6 air yards per target this season. It's the second most among players at his position with at least 25 targets by more than six full yards. So they're using him a ton downfield. They're doing some play action. I think they're going to take some shots with Terry and Ferguson, especially in the end zone. So we know that one of these tight ends of the Rams is going to catch a touchdown, right? There's so many of them. Matthew Stafford's probably good for at least three touchdowns. He destroyed the Seahawks the last time he played them without Devonte Adams. So I like the rookie here in this situation to catch the touchdown.
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All right, so the rookie TD here. Welsh, let's get to your last pick here. It has to do with Matthew Stafford, possibly the MVP of the year, and you've got a fun one here. Let's talk about the touchdowns and how many Matthew Stafford could throw in this game.
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Yeah, this is definitely my fun one. A little bit longer odds. But Erickson just kind of said, he said Matthew Stafford's good for three touchdowns. Well, guess what? That's the bet. Matthew Stafford passing touchdowns at 3.5. We've got some good odds on this one. You're going to get close to three to one for him to do that. Stafford has only not THROWN More than one touchdown three, three games this entire season. Ten times this year, 10 he has thrown for three or more touchdowns. Against the Seahawks. He actually did this once. He has five passing touchdowns, no picks. One of those games. He did get three. As I've said before, I think the Rams are going to steadily have this. I think the. I am a little dicey on the Kyron Williams one because I think Seattle is going to shut down some of that running game. What that ends up doing is that pushes Stafford to throw the ball more. You've got some short goal line spots maybe and that's the big key too. They get into that, you know, five yard range instead of going to, to Kyron Williams. It's more play action to Puka or the tight ends. I actually really like that Ferguson call there. So Matthew Stafford at three passing touchdowns in this game, almost three to one. That's my very, very fun bet.
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Okay, Andrew Erickson, let's close it out strong. What do you have? What's your final bet for the NFC Championship game?
- [14:38]
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If Matthew Stafford is the fun bet, this is the least fun bet on Cooper Cup. The dusty old veteran playing his old team is going to be over two and a half receptions. He has at least three catches in both games this year against his former team. And what have we been doing all throughout the playoffs? Attacking the Rams secondary with opposing slot wide receivers. Jaylen Coker two weeks ago, Smash Luther Burden last week, Smash Cooper cup this week. Yes, Smash. And then, and his version of a Smash is. Oh, he caught three passes for 30 yards. We'll take it because it still hits the over. So Cooper cup over two and a half catches.
- [15:13]
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All right. Like Cooper Cup. Look at that. The third in the revenge game of the year. I mean, you can't really have revenge now. We played this many times. I think it's kind of, it's kind of old, but a big spot. So we'll see if the old man's got one left in the tank. But that brings us to our favorite part of the program, our Hard Rock Best bets of the game here sponsored by our sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. So it's the only legal sports book in Florida and obviously we've got a lot of good action going on with the NFL this weekend and the Super Bowls around the corner. So if you're betting props, you're betting game stuff, we want you to bet it over at Hard Rock Bet. And don't worry if you miss kickoff because they've got in game live betting as well. And the winner of any prop here that we've put out there for you, you could bet it hard to Rock bet any of these props that were thrown out there, any of these game bets, it's all there for you, whether it's before or even during the game. And when you bet your first bet at five bucks and you win in Hard Rock bet, you get 150 in bonus bets plus your winnings only at Hard Rock Bet. So between the same game parlays A live betting and of course the welcome offer and also they got promos every single day. Hard Rock Bet is giving you all that you need to be successful this NFL postseason. So download the Hard Rock Bet sports app today. Payable and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and other states must be 21 in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Texas, Tennessee or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1833 play wise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- Gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Let's take you through our favorite bets of the week. Welsh, what is your favorite of all that you've laid out for us today for the NFC Championship game?
- [16:56]
B
I gotta tell you, I'm. I'm kind of locked into these maybe even a little bit more than in the AFC side. I definitely had a really good favorite that I think is maybe my singular favorite bet of the entire entire weekend. There's like three and the Puka rushing yards is really, really close. But at the end of the day, I'm gonna lock in on the Sam Darnold pass attempts at 29.5. I think that is the play. That is the spot. Seattle losing a little bit on the running game with Charbonnet. They are going to be forced as much as possible to be slinging the ball and I think the 30 pass attempts for Sam Darnold will be a necessity. So that is going to be my Hard Rock best bet in this NFC Championship game.
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All right, Andrew Erickson, what do you have for the people? What's your favorite bet for this game?
- [17:36]
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My Hard Rock best bet of the NFC Championship game is Cooper cup over two and a half receptions. He's gone over this number in both his games against the Rams this season and last week he's coming off one of his better games of the year. Five catch for 60 yards on five targets. He's gone over this number in four straight home games, three of his last five games overall. So five star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet. Don't let me down.
- [18:01]
A
There you go everybody. And remember, we like to do a little SGP action as well for you. So if you pick Cooper Cups with this two and a half total receptions, you go over that and you take Matthew Stafford's over three passing touchdowns, which is one that Welsh mentioned on the program, you can get that number up to plus 683. That's a huge number there. So enjoy that one while it's out there. And of course, when it comes to touchdowns, we know Terence Ferguson is Andrew's pick at almost 7 to 1 there. Crazy number. And and Pukua for the Welsh at +115. So those are all your bets. Download the Hard Rock Bet sportsbook app. Bet 5 bucks. Get 150 in bonus bets when you do, but you can't do that unless you download the app. Gentlemen, great stuff as always. And if you're looking for more insights, go check out the AFC version of this show right here on our YouTube channel. Subscribe to the feed, subscribe to the podcast, subscribe to everything and join us live too for AFC Championship first half of the game. We're going to be here, Scott Bogman, Seth Wilcock taking you through some in game live betting. It's going to be a great Sunday of football and then we get to the Super Bowl. Oh, good times. Very excited about all of that. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh and Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids. Enjoy the games. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and TikTok, bettingpros and Instagram ettingprosnfl. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com bettingpros.
- [19:39]
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- [20:11]
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Guaranteed human.