FantasyPros Betting Pros Podcast - NFC Conference Championship Best Bets & Player Props (Ep. 1947)
Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Joe Pisapia ("Joey P")
Guests: Chris Welsh ("Welsh"), Andrew Erickson
Game Analyzed: Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks, NFC Conference Championship
Episode Overview
This episode features Joey P, Welsh, and Andrew Erickson breaking down their top betting picks, player props, and angles for the NFC Conference Championship—Rams vs. Seahawks. The discussion explores detailed trends, player usage, and fantasy insights to find the best values for betters, with a focus on nuanced prop plays and game scripts.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Game & Spread Analysis
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Welsh's Take: Rams +2.5
- Rationale: Despite the outcome for his 49ers, Welsh sees the Rams as the NFL’s best team this year, pointing to their consistent close wins and passing offense firepower.
- Quote:
“I think the Rams are the best team in the NFL and I thought that for quite some time… I love this spot. So my first bet, Mr. Joe Pisapia, is going to be the Rams. We are going to go with Los Angeles Rams plus two and a half.” (01:23) - Context: Both prior matchups between these teams this season were decided by a point or two, with Seattle losing some key offensive momentum due to injuries (Zach Charbonnet).
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Erickson's Take: Under 47.5 Points
- Rationale: Points out that games between these two often go under when totals are set high. Notes red zone defensive strengths and key injuries reducing Seattle's scoring ceiling.
- Quote:
“Anytime the total between Rams and Seahawks... closed north of 42.5, the game has gone under... Both defenses ranked top five in the red zone.” (02:52)
2. Sam Darnold Props
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Welsh: Darnold Over 29.5 Pass Attempts
- Why: Seattle likely to lean on the pass without Charbonnet; both prior matchups saw Darnold exceed this total, with 34 and 44 attempts.
- Quote:
“I think the Seahawks... are going to have to rely a little bit more on the passing game. So I really like the idea of him just having at least 30 pass attempts here.” (04:46)
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Erickson: Darnold to Throw an Interception
- Why: Seven interceptions in past three games vs. Rams under Chris Shula; pass attempts volume and pressure means mistakes are likely.
- Quote:
“His last three games against the Rams he has been picked off seven times... Sam Darnold against this Chris Shula led Rams defense, I know the Rams secondary is not good... but that pass rush I think is going to get after Sam Darnold.” (06:00)
3. Rams Offensive Weapons
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Welsh: Puka Nacua Over 8 Receptions
- Stat: 8+ catches and 10+ targets in six of his last seven vs. Seattle; Rams' passing offense revolves around Puka.
- Quote:
“Puka, eight receptions, it’s such a big number. But believe me, you are going to get 12 to 14 targets from him in this game.” (08:04)
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Welsh: Puka Nacua Over 4.5 Rushing Yards
- Why: Used on gadget plays; over 5 rushing yards in 4 of last 5 games with at least 1 rush attempt.
- Quote:
“Puka has had at least one rush attempt in five straight games. He has gone over five rushing yards in four of his last five… So five plus yards for Puka Nacua rushing, that's a fourth bet.” (10:40)
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Erickson: Kyren Williams Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
- Why: Hit 54+ in 9 of last 10 games, over this total both prior matchups vs. Seattle, despite Seattle’s strong run defense.
- Quote:
“Kyren has hit at least 54 rushing yards in 9 of his last 10 games played... So I just think this one is just too low.” (09:18)
4. Longshot/Value Touchdown Props
- Erickson: Terence Ferguson Anytime TD (+650/+700)
- Why: Ferguson getting more snaps/routes, scored last time vs. Seattle; high air yards per target for a tight end.
- Quote:
“I’m gonna go with Terence Ferguson anytime. Touchdown at plus 650 or plus 700 in some spots here as well... he also out snapped Tyler Higbee and Davis Allen. So it seems like Terence Ferguson, the snaps, the routes are trending in the right direction.” (12:11)
5. Quarterback Props
- Welsh: Matthew Stafford Over 3.5 Passing TDs
- Why: Only failed to throw 2+ TDs three times all year, 10 games with 3+ TDs, five TDs and zero picks vs. Seattle this season.
- Quote:
“Stafford has only not thrown more than one touchdown three games this entire season. Ten times this year, 10 he has thrown for three or more touchdowns.” (13:27) - Fun SGP Mention: Parlaying this with Cooper Kupp over 2.5 receptions pays +683.
6. Veteran Value
- Erickson: Cooper Kupp Over 2.5 Receptions
- Why: At least 3 catches in both games vs. Seattle this year. Rams vulnerable to slot WRs means more looks for Kupp in “revenge” game.
- Quote:
“He has at least three catches in both games this year against his former team... Cooper Kupp over two and a half catches.” (14:38)
7. Hard Rock Best Bets (Summary & Favorites)
- Welsh: Sam Darnold Over 29.5 pass attempts
- “The 30 pass attempts for Sam Darnold will be a necessity. So that is going to be my Hard Rock best bet in this NFC Championship game.” (16:56)
- Erickson: Cooper Kupp Over 2.5 receptions
- “So five star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet. Don’t let me down.” (17:36)
Most Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “I think the Rams are the best team in the NFL and I thought that for quite some time… I love this spot.” — Welsh (01:23)
- “Anytime the total between Rams and Seahawks... closed north of 42.5, the game has gone under.” — Andrew Erickson (02:52)
- “Sam Darnold has gone over this Pass attempt total 34 and 44 pass attempts in both those outings.” — Welsh (04:46)
- “His last three games against the Rams he has been picked off seven times.” — Andrew Erickson (06:00)
- “Puka, eight receptions... you are going to get 12 to 14 targets from him in this game.” — Welsh (08:04)
- “Terence Ferguson anytime touchdown at plus 650 or plus 700...” — Andrew Erickson (12:11)
- “Stafford has only not thrown more than one touchdown three, three games this entire season. Ten times this year, 10 he has thrown for three or more touchdowns.” — Welsh (13:27)
- “Cooper Kupp over two and a half catches.” — Andrew Erickson (14:38)
Key Timestamps
- 01:03 — Welsh makes the case for the Rams +2.5
- 02:52 — Erickson lays out the under (47.5) and key trends
- 04:46 — Welsh: Darnold Pass Attempts over 29.5
- 06:00 — Erickson: Darnold INT prop; historical struggles vs. Rams
- 08:04 — Welsh: Puka over 8 receptions (and target volume)
- 09:18 — Erickson: Kyren Williams rushing yards over 54.5
- 10:40 — Welsh: Puka rushing yards over 4.5
- 12:11 — Erickson: Terence Ferguson anytime TD
- 13:27 — Welsh: Matthew Stafford over 3.5 passing TDs
- 14:38 — Erickson: Cooper Kupp over 2.5 receptions
- 16:56 — Hard Rock Best Bets: Welsh (Darnold pass attempts), Erickson (Kupp receptions)
- 18:00 — Mention of plus-money SGP: Kupp over 2.5 recs + Stafford 3+ TDs (+683)
Tone & Style
- Conversational, analytic, and bet-focused; some banter and humor, especially around division rival hate and “revenge” game narratives (“lose by a million or lose by one,” Welsh, 01:03).
- Each host/guest provides rationales rooted in stats, trends, and matchup specifics.
Summary Table: Top Bets
| Analyst | Bet | Reasoning | Odds/Line | |--------------|------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|---------------| | Welsh | Rams +2.5 | Rams best team; prior close matchups | +2.5 | | Erickson | Under 47.5 | Trend, red zone defense, missing Charbonnet | 47.5 | | Welsh | Darnold o29.5 pass att. | Volume, past matchups, no Charbonnet | 29.5 | | Erickson | Darnold To Throw INT | Struggles vs. Rams/Chris Shula, high pressure | N/A | | Welsh | Puka o8 recs; o4.5 rush yds | High usage, gadget plays vs. Seattle | 8 / 4.5 | | Erickson | Kyren Williams o54.5 rush yds | Consistent over, past success vs. Seattle | 54.5 | | Erickson | Terence Ferguson Anytime TD | Snap/routing trends, red zone role | +650/+700 | | Welsh | Matthew Stafford o3.5 passing TDs | High ceiling, previous success vs. SEA | 3.5 | | Erickson | Cooper Kupp o2.5 recs | Slot WR trend, historical data | 2.5 |
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