NFC West 2026: Every Team's Ceiling, Floor & Breakout Player (Ep. 2053)

Summary

FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: NFC West 2026: Every Team’s Ceiling, Floor & Breakout Player

Hosts: Joe Pisapia ("Joey P"), Andrew Erickson, Derek Brown ("DBro")
Date: June 12, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into every NFC West team for the 2026 fantasy football season, exploring each squad’s best-case and worst-case scenarios, key roster changes, and potential breakout players. The hosts debate odds, fantasy ADP, team strengths/weaknesses, and how off-season moves affect both real and fantasy football outlooks. Along the way, they tackle returning stars, injury risks, major schematic shifts, schedule traps, and which bets or ADPs they love (or hate) for 2026.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Intro: Banter & General NFL Notes

• Casual NBA & sports talk (00:59-06:30): Lighthearted segment on NBA playoff drama, filling time before getting to fantasy content.
• Baker Mayfield’s Contract Situation (06:44–13:01):
  • Mayfield says he’s nowhere close to a deal with Tampa; hosts see "posturing."
  • “If you’re going to pay the guy, just pay the damn guy. Because eventually... you’re just going to end up paying him more.” – Dbro (09:43)
  • Potential fits if Baker moves on include: Steelers, Rams, Vikings, but not Panthers/Browns.
• Mahomes’ Extension Reaction (13:01–14:53):
  • Brief analysis of Mahomes’ new $64M/year deal; hosts question timing and team impact.
  • "Did you really have to do this? Is this just... Mahomes will be the number one paid quarterback...?" – Dbro (13:23)

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AFC & NFC Notes

• Alec Pierce’s Injury Concerns (14:56–17:57):
  • Pierce late to camp, ankle injury; Colts WR1 role in question.
  • "His ADP continues to dip… he’s wide receiver 36. Clearly the market’s not super aggressive." – Erickson (16:52)
  • Breakout candidate: Tyler Warren (TE), whom hosts say they’re “too low on.”

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NFC WEST DEEP DIVE

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Los Angeles Rams (21:14–31:01)

Offseason & Roster Overhaul

• Reigning MVP, Sean McVay, Miles Garrett Trade, Aaron Donald's Potential Return.
• Roster is "very top heavy," with concerns about health and depth—especially at QB and OL.

Best & Worst Case

• “If Matthew Stafford's healthy, we find a way. We will be a playoff team here for the Rams.” – Joey P (24:45)
• Stafford injury = team collapses.
• Defense highlighted: Miles Garrett (sack king), improved secondary with McDuffie & Watson.

Breakout Player

• Tyler Warren (TE), consensus top-5 at his position.

Notable Quotes & Stats

• “The Rams were fourth in pressure rate last season... and they just added the reigning sack record breaker in Miles Garrett.” – Erickson (25:56)
• 10 dropped INTs last year; hosts expect improvement.
• “I would feel actually better about the depth on the defensive side than... their offense.” – Dbro (23:10)

Key Bets (29:26–30:36)

• Win total: 11.5 (over -120)
• Playoffs: -317 Yes
• Division: +105
• Conference: +305 (“best bet on the board for this team” – Joey P, 30:32)
• Super Bowl: +575 (“value’s been nuked, especially after they got Miles Garrett” – Erickson, 30:02)

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San Francisco 49ers (31:01–40:30)

Offseason & Depth Concerns

• Brock Purdy: “king of system quarterbacks.”
• Injury and age issues at multiple spots: Kittle (Achilles), McCaffrey (high wear), Evans (hamstrings, age 47 joke), Ricky Pearsall (unproven), Trent Williams (37, OL)

Boom or Bust Nature

• “There's a wide range of outcomes from the 49ers – if everything works out... they could be the No. 1 seed... We could also see the other side, where it’s a disaster.” – Erickson (34:10)
• “Already going in with some injury questions before we even figure that out.” – Joey P (36:24)
• Playoff drubbing vs. Seattle and an OL with “diamond guard positions; don’t know who’s playing guard.” (37:21)
• Expectation: defensive improvement with Raheem Morris hired to replace Salah.

Key Schedule & Betting Notes

• “Circle November on your calendars”—Dallas/Mexico City/Seattle stretch could be turning point (39:24)
• Super Bowl: +1900, Conference: +1150, Division: +325 (“pass” or “bet early, try to flip when 49ers start hot and then fade late”—Erickson/Joey P)
• Win total: 9.5 (over -140), 10.5 (under -125)

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Seattle Seahawks (40:50–48:49)

Offseason Changes, Strengths, Weaknesses

• Mike Macdonald’s defense: “runaway best defense in the entire NFL” (45:47).
• Loss of OC Clint Kubiak is major concern; offense expects natural regression.
• Running back turnover: Ken Walker, Charbonnet out; relying on Wilson, Price, Holani.
  • “I am skeptical that they can do it... this team was so reliant on the run last year.” – Erickson (42:02)

Passing Game: Regression?

• JSN “all world,” led NFL with 44% yardage market share
• Cooper Kupp “dust” at this point (46:45)
• Shahid & Horton’s roles defined but not expansive

Key Bets

• Super Bowl: +1150 (pass)
• Conference: +614
• Division: +225 (“wait, let the 49ers start hot, then bet Seattle for division if the opportunity arises”—Joey P, 48:14)
• Playoffs: -225 Yes, +257 No
• Win total: 10.5 (under +126, over -125—"stay away")

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Arizona Cardinals (50:36–62:37)

Roster Shake-up & Coaching

• New HC Mike LaFleur, exciting weapons: Jeremiah Love (RB), Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR), Michael Wilson, TE Trey McBride.
• Big hole at QB: Jacoby Brissett opens the year, rookie Carson Beck (and possibly Gardner Minshew) also in mix.
• “If you’re trying to lose games, Carson Beck’s your best bet.” – Erickson (52:53)
• Franchise is rebuilding—hosts agree team is live for #1 pick.

Breakout/Bust Candidates

• Jeremiah Love’s ADP/rookie award odds debated (concern: can a top offensive rookie come from a terrible team?).

Key Schedule & Bets

• Brutally hard, division-heavy opening, late bye week, tough matchups—hosts see O-8/1-11 as plausible.
• “The win total for the Cardinals? Four and a half.” (59:54)
• Over +125 / Under -135—“crush the Cardinals under, then buy out post-bye week” (60:14)
• Favorite Cardinals bet: “first overall pick prop,” then hedge when schedule eases late (57:29-58:17)

Trade/Depth Notes

• “James Conner will be traded” (61:30); possible destinations: Packers, Lions, Commanders, per Dbro
• Crowd in RB room—Love, Algier, Conner, Trey Benson (injured already)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If you’re going to pay the guy, just pay the damn guy...” – Dbro on Baker Mayfield (09:43)
• “The Rams were fourth in pressure rate... they just added the reigning sack record breaker in Miles Garrett.” – Erickson (25:56)
• “There’s a wide range of outcomes for the 49ers... they could be the number one seed... or this team’s picking in the top 10.” – Erickson (34:10)
• “I think this team [Cardinals] is live to go 0-8” – Joey P (56:44)
• “If you’re trying to lose games, Carson Beck is your best bet.” – Erickson (52:53)

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Segment Timestamps

• Baker Mayfield contract / QB carousel: 06:44–13:01
• Mahomes extension reaction: 13:01–14:53
• Alec Pierce injury/Colts depth chart: 14:56–17:57
• NFC West team breakdowns:
  • Rams: 21:14–31:01
  • 49ers: 31:01–40:30
  • Seahawks: 40:50–48:49
  • Cardinals: 50:36–62:37

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Summary Table: NFC West at a Glance

| Team | Ceiling | Floor | Breakout Candidates | Key Risks / Questions | Win Total | Notable Bets | |------------|----------------|-----------------|---------------------|-------------------------------------|-------------|-----------------------------| | Rams | Super Bowl | Miss playoffs | Tyler Warren (TE) | Stafford health, OL depth | 11.5 | Conf winner +305 | | 49ers | NFC 1-seed | Top-10 pick | Ricky Pearsall (WR) | Age, offensive line, injury cluster | 9.5 | Div winner +325 (flip) | | Seahawks | Deep playoff | 7–8 wins | JSN (WR) | Loss of OC, RB turnover, regression | 10.5 | Div +225 (watch, then bet) | | Cardinals | 5–6 wins | #1 pick | Jeremiah Love (RB) | No QB, hard schedule, RB injuries | 4.5 | Under, 1st overall pick |

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Final Takeaways

• The Rams are stacked but vulnerable to injuries, especially at QB. Defensive additions push their ceiling sky high, but betting value is limited by current market odds.
• The 49ers remain dangerous but their thin roster could break down quickly, especially after a tough schedule stretch.
• The Seahawks face regression with much of last year’s offensive magic tied to their departed OC; defense keeps them relevant, but time your bets.
• The Cardinals are the division’s doormat, with early-season schedule hell and quarterback chaos—prime candidates for the first overall pick and a true “fade.”

The hosts employ a friendly, sometimes irreverent tone, with rapid-fire debates, personal anecdotes, and pointed gambling/fantasy takes aimed at savvy listeners setting up for the 2026 fantasy football season.

Transcript

[A]

This is an Iheart podcast.

[B]

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[C]

park it right here, everybody. It's time for the tailgate. It's me, Joey P. Joe P. Zeppia. With me, of course, is Mr. Big Pot Energy Andrew Erickson and Debro Derek Brown, the king of bros. And we're talking football here as we do at the tailgate. No frills, no fillers. Just football and friendship. And a festival of friendship at that. Today we're going to talk about the NFC West. We're going to put all these previews to bed and we got a lot of fun stuff planned for the next couple weeks. So make sure you subscribe to the channel. Drop your comments below because when you do over here at Tailgate NFL, guess what you get? You get an opportunity to win our latest giveaway. Boom. This right here, the Bijan Robinson autograph jersey from pristine auction.com. not too shabby, folks. Again, how do you win? You subscribe to Tailgate NFL. You drop your comments below like this video can't hurt your chances. And shout out to everybody's been watching us and subscribing to we're over a thousand already. We're hoping to be over 5,000 by the time we get to NFL season. And who knows, end of the year, maybe 10,000, maybe more. Yesterday, if you missed the show, you can go back and and watch it on demand. We talked a little bit about the the New York Knicks because even though it's a football show, we're still friends. We talk about stuff. And we talked about Elmo getting dragged on the Internet. All is forgiven now because of the incredible evening of basketball that was provided the dramatic comeback. It's just sports. It's just incredible. That kind of comeback for even the most casual NBA fan, which I am even below that standard. And Derrick Brown might even be a notch below that. Did you watch the comeback? Did you see any of it? D Bro.

[D]

That's the story that I wanted to tell you guys. So last night, I was. I was scrolling through the channels on old YouTube TV, and I happened to come across the game, and I was like, oh, I haven't. I haven't watched a single second of any NBA playoff basketball Anything. Nothing. I happen to come across the game and turn it on with exactly 5.7 seconds left.

[C]

Oh, my gosh.

[D]

And the play happens, and I'm like, holy crap. Like, what is.

[C]

The G bro's running around smacking children. I was like, look at that.

[D]

My wife and I don't give a crap about NBA. And we're both watching this and all like, did that just happen? Did we just turn it on at this particular moment?

[E]

Whoa.

[D]

So, yes, I got to tune in for the best of it. Yes.

[C]

Yeah. That was certainly the best of it. Andrew Erickson, you were in the infirmary, I believe, dending some wounds from the dog. I want to say no. Show everybody puppy. What's happened to you? Put away up by your face. I don't know if the boxes shoot away. Just.

[D]

Just shoot away. Cujo. Cujo. For all the young. Young people here. Don't know who that is, but the puppy.

[E]

Arch. But I actually did turn on the game as well. I turned it on, looked at the score, turned to my wife and said, well, this game's over. She's gonna go to bed.

[D]

Whatever.

[E]

Little did you know.

[C]

And then.

[E]

And then I'm like, on. Because she. It was in the. We were watching TV in the bedroom. So I'm like. I'm like, half asleep. She's like, still watching it, and she's trying to talk to me about, like, this epic comeback that's about to happen. And she's. They're closing the gap. They're down by 10. They're down by six. They're down by three. And I'm just like, yeah, yeah. Half asleep. Yeah. And then I wake up this morning, and I. Then it all. I realized that they actually won. And I texted her. I say, taylor, did you really? The Knicks won last night? She's like, yeah, I know. I watched the game. Which you didn't.

[D]

Yeah, yeah. Goes to bed at 8:30 at night. We all know this.

[C]

Let's not bring up early bedtimes here in the program.

[D]

All right?

[C]

Let's get to some. It's a beautiful moment. Like, you know what's happening. I know there's some negativity going on in the streets of New York. It gets amplified. I get it.

[D]

Side tangent real fast. Did y' all see Charles Barclay's breakdown of that? He's like, this is the terriblest game. It's the worst game I've ever seen.

[C]

Well, he's right.

[D]

He's.

[C]

I mean, teams with a lead that don't play like a lead. It's the stuff that I coach with my 14 you girls, for God's sakes, like, hey, you gotta lead. Play like you have a lead because they're playing against you and the clock. And when you have a 30 point lead going into the second half of a game, you sit on it. You don't take eight straight threes and you just run down the court and keep lobbing balls up like, what the hell are you doing?

[D]

Not good.

[E]

Shoot or shoot, baby.

[C]

Every 32nd.

[E]

What would Kyle Shanahan have done?

[C]

What?

[E]

What would Kyle Shanahan.

[C]

Rings does Kyle Shanahan have? Is what I always say, run the damn ball. Stop showing everybody you're the smartest guy in the room. Bill Belichick was boring af. And he has a bunch of rings because he was boring af. He played with a lead when he had a lead, and everyone's like, oh,

[D]

it's good to win.

[C]

These Patriot games were a bit of a slog. Yeah, they are. Yeah, they are. And they won a lot of them. But look, it's, it's. I know there's like some negativity on the Internet about, you know, some of the bad apples in the Big Apple. But overall, the majority of, like the beautiful moments that are going on there where these crowds are watching games on the sides of buildings, like, the energy is infectious, is unbelievable. Like, I've never seen anything in this. My whole. I mean, look, I'm a New Yorker, I'm old fart. Like, I've never seen anything quite like this ever. Not Mets, Yankees, not anything. I think it's because of the, the gap of like a generations that haven't seen them win. It's unbelievable. And so I guess tailgate is now like all purpose sports now today. So if you hated yesterday show.

[E]

World cup starts today as well.

[C]

World Cups.

[D]

Screw football.

[C]

We'll talk football.

[D]

Well, the real football.

[C]

Football is life.

[D]

Last thing I want to say before we kind of transition here, boys. The only thing that gr. That, that grinded my gears about all of that stuff last night was when they're Showing all of the fans reacting to what just transpired. We don't need five straight minutes of like, let's get every single celeb in the building and see how they feel.

[C]

The Knicks won television for casual fans. Yeah.

[E]

There are televised programs of celebrities dressed up in fancy outfits. Like, that's a thing that people watch. So of course they're going to want to see their reactions to after a big basketball game like this. So dbro your takes wrong.

[C]

Sorry. Yeah, I totally want to see Larry Davis reaction to everything. Like, just generally speaking, because he's an amusing human. All right, let's talk about some quarterbacks getting paid. Because, you know, that never happens in the NFL. We'll start there today. Baker Mayfield said he's nowhere close to agreeing to a new contract with the Buccaneers. Now the Buccanese Buccaneers need Baker Mayfield. Okay. In the worst way. He's 31 years old. I know last year was a down year for him, but the year before, it was magical. Pretty strong for the year before that as well. Since he's come to Tampa, he has been the franchise quarterback. I assume we're going to get everything right here eventually. But does anyone else have a feeling at all that that is not the case? Because I think these two sides need each other. Just a matter of working out the money. And it doesn't help that once again, Mahomes restructures his contract against paid more. We'll talk about that in a second. Erickson. I think this is posturing. I think this is nonsense. You can't not go into, you know, I think free agency with Baker Mayfield, like testing the waters in the NFL.

[E]

Yeah, that's not a great recipe for success for the Buccaneers. Although from their standpoint, how do you get the best out of Baker Mayfield is make him an underdog. Make him like, you got to earn this contract. You know, maybe it's eight weeks through the season and you're putting up MVP level numbers like you were in the first half of last year. Stop playing three Rangers. I think maybe to a point with Mayfield, he needs to come to grips with. I can't play three injuries anymore. If I'm hurt and can't play at 100% or close to 100% where I'm operating at an elite level, I gotta. I don't know if I can go on the field because this has happened to him multiple times. Last year with Tampa Bay played horrible down the stretch because he was injured in Cleveland. That's why he. Part of the reason why he got run out of Cleveland is because he was batting through shoulder injuries and he's banged up. He's a warrior. We know that. That's what we love about Baker Mayfield. At the same time, if I'm his agent, I'm like, dude, try to get you paid, man. Like, another big contract. He's 31 years old. So, yeah, I think that ultimately they'll probably come to terms at some point, but I don't know.

[C]

Edge Sword, though, like. Because that's what. That's what teams want, isn't it, Derek? They want the guy that's going to be tough and be the warrior and play through injuries and be a team leader right. Until the performance suffers and then everybody kills him for the performance suffering. You're kind of screwed either way, aren't you?

[D]

Yeah. And Baker knows this. Like Ericson talks about. He knows this all too well. So is it time for Baker to start making business decisions decisions instead of real life decisions to where he's like, I have been the good soldier. I have gone out there and I have played Will like, on one leg without the ability to throw the ball at 100%. Like, at what point is he like, fine, you want to drag me through the mud whenever you think you got leverage? Because I didn't play as well because I went out there to sit here and try to will us to victory despite playing behind a battered offensive line. Mike Evans in and out of the lineup. Chris Godwin in and out of the lineup. Jalen McMillan hurt for most of the year. Yeah. But sure, I'm the one that sucks. Don't pay me. I think with the way that all these situations usually work out, we just call this the Jerry Jones effect, is if you're going to pay the guy, just pay the damn guy. Because eventually, if you're going to pay the guy and the longer you wait, you're just going to end up paying him more.

[C]

Right. More friction. Two between you and the organization. That whole thing happened. I'll tell you what, there's one team out there, though, that I think should be monitoring this situation very closely and sending signals to him because they're a team that's kind of in limbo. No, not the jets, because they're going to have a high draft pick, Okay? A team that's going to win more games than the jets, but not enough to be relevant. Pittsburgh Steelers. He fits the mold of a Pittsburgh gutty quarterback kind of thing.

[D]

Earthy quarterback.

[C]

Hey, he's got a little bit of that. A little bit of that gunslinger in him. Like Farve, you know, I mean, to me, this is exactly the guy the Pittsburgh Steelers should be looking at for the future if they can shake him loose from the Buccaneers. And look, if the Buccaneers aren't good this year, coach gets fired, maybe they do strip things down. I don't know. I mean, I think it'd be a massive mistake to let the quarterback walk at 31 years old, two years removed or a year removed from a 4, 500 yard season with 41 touchdowns. I would not do that. But if I'm the Pittsburgh Steelers, I say, here you go, here's the check. You write it and you come back to me and then we go play football. That's what I would do.

[D]

Who's the.

[E]

To that point, who's the backup in Tampa Bay? I don't. Oh, it was Bridgewater last year, but I don't think he's on the team.

[C]

I will tell you, it is Jake Browning, good friend of the show. Friend of the show, Jake Browning.

[D]

So real quick, guys, if Baker doesn't stay with Tampa, where else? I mean, we just kind of threw out that as a landing spot. I'll also say, could he go to the Carolina Panthers? See, I'm saying no.

[C]

Yeah, but that's why I say no, because he's got a history there. Like, that's.

[D]

We know he's not going to Atlanta. He's not going to have a reunion with Here are the team the way that ended.

[C]

So Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, not happening. Those would be the best situations for a guy like Baker. Bayford, I feel like to go into.

[D]

Oh, what about the Houston Texans, if they finally get done with the CJ's trout mess and they're like, hey, that's a toss Baker away from a Super Bowl.

[E]

Dude, I, I think it's more likely he would play for like, honestly, the Rams. Stafford retires. Let's say Ty Simpson's not in. They, they, they get through an entire year and they're like, we made a mistake. I feel like we should not have drafted this guy. And then bringing BAKER Mayfield at 32 years old to an offense into a team that's already built to win the Super Bowl. We already saw what Baker Mayfield did with Sean McVeigh in like a week. And I think that would be kind of exciting too. Again, that's only if still there. Yeah, yeah.

[C]

But if you play, if it goes well, they all leave. And it depends on who goes in there. It's the shuffle of things. I think McCarthy's not going anywhere for a while. Regardless of how they perform this year.

[D]

No, I agreed to.

[C]

And McCarthy I think is a viable coat. Like if you're Baker Mayfield. There's a lot you can learn from Mike McCarthy. Okay. By far the best probably quarterback minded coach that he's ever played for. Except maybe Sean McVeigh. But again played for as an air quotes because it wasn't a very long time.

[D]

My last. My last spot. Kyler moves on. They still. Hey jj. The Minnesota Vikings.

[E]

Yeah, I like that.

[C]

That's not terrible either. That's not a bad one either. But maybe Justin Jefferson black and gold. Black and gold mentality there. Like Baker Mayfield. Steel City, baby. Like they would love.

[E]

Gets to play the Browns twice a year.

[C]

I'm sold.

[E]

I'm sold.

[D]

Baker would love that. Yeah, out of there, please. Fightful Baker, baby. As a Pittsburgh Steeler.

[C]

Okay.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

Speaking of quarterbacks, Mahomes two year extension. Okay, so now he's gonna make $64 million a year. That's a new high watermark for the league. Just when I thought the Chiefs were trying to figure out their cap space and make things better. Does this make things better? Anybody?

[D]

No.

[C]

I feel like this is kind of like a bad timing for this move. But I guess you got to keep Patrick Mahomes happy. Is that it?

[D]

I guess. Man, this just felt weird. It was like did you really have to do this? Like is this just. We're gonna keep upping the ante of Mahomes will be the number one paid quarterback in the NFL. Blah, blah. It's like, I mean,

[E]

is that what happens from this? Is that. Is that the only thing that. Is that really the only thing that's changed? Because I just figured that this was just like moving money around to free up, you know, restructured salary cap, etc for the next. Felt weird, dude.

[C]

Yeah, but it's like it's a very short term window in which it does that. From what I'm gleaning from the the deal. Brady ever the highest played quarterback? No, by the way.

[E]

Not. Not to my knowledge. Could not confirm or tell you. I no idea if he was ever

[C]

curious because he restructured his contract so many times so they could sign more guys.

[E]

It does depend on how you briefly.

[C]

He was only one.

[D]

Is that accurate? Is that just what the AI is saying?

[C]

No. Well, I mean it's giving a readout of all of them. So one time in 2010 he signed a four year, 72 million dollar extension that made him the highest at the time. But what year was that one? 2010.

[E]

Oh. So after like right before his like second MVP, I think.

[C]

Yeah. And Erickson was a wee last thing I know. He was just a boy.

[E]

I remember that.

[C]

But interesting. It was only in his 23 years. Seasons. 23 seasons rather. Only one time was he ever that

[E]

famously took pay cuts.

[C]

So yeah, I mean, look. And that's the odd. Some of these guys, like, it's like

[D]

if only Mahomes would take the pay cut for the team.

[C]

Yeah. Alec Pierce, let's talk about him for a second. Now there's. This is a little. It was like, everything's fine, we're signing him, everything's cool. Now all of a sudden we're getting news that he's going to be late in his recovery, maybe sometime towards the end of camp. He's got an ankle injury for those people who don't know. And his status is kind of up in the air for week one right now. Erickson, this feels a little like, I don't know, like we were kind of hiding this news a little bit from us and now it's sort of slowly drip, drip, dripping out and I don't like the sound of this at all.

[E]

I also do not like the sound of this. I knew that he was dealing with something that was keeping out of OTAs, but it was the expectations to be back for training camp. So this news was actually pretty noteworthy for me as oh, now he's going to miss training camp or parts of training camp. So he's going to be in a new role this year as the Colts wide receiver. 1. However, when you look at the optics of the way the Colts offense is built, I know Joey, that you're the number one Colts fan. Daniel Jones is going to be 100 ready to go in week.

[C]

Our team, we bleed blue.

[E]

That's one of the questions is just how effective Daniel Jones. The second thing is he has to compete with guys that command targets at a really high rate. Josh Downs had one of the highest target rate per out runs last year, the year before, because when he's on the field, he gets open at a really high rate. And the same thing with Tyler Warren. He led the team in targets last year. The Colts rookie tight end. Tight ends tend to get better jumping from year one to year two. So is he going to see more targets than Alec Pierce? So although it seemed like they were really gung ho on making him the guy this season by the amount that they paid him, it's not like he's the only. He's not the last man standing. Even with Michael Pittman Gone. Like, they have really good other options to throw the ball to. And obviously Jonathan Taylor is the focal point of the run game. So Alec Pierce to me again, his ADP continues to dip. I mean, he's like wide receiver 36, so clearly the market's not super aggressive on him anyway, as it should. But I mean, yeah, it's definitely not

[C]

a ring for Tyler Warren.

[D]

That's my big takeaway. Tyler Warren's gonna lead this team in targets. And we're too low on Tyler Warren's upside.

[E]

I mean, he's tight. Yeah, he's 10 and 4. He's in a weird spot in drafts because he's after the big three with lovely McBride and Bowers. And then Tyler Warren, I think he's right. He's in a good tight. It's not about him versus the other tight ends, really, because I think he's consensus tight end four, but it's him versus the running backs, receivers, and elite quarterbacks that go in his range in fantasy draft. So he's interesting.

[D]

All right, does this make this, like a quiet Stefan Diggs possible landing spot if Alec Pierce continues to be out?

[C]

You just. You just wanna, like, are you his agent? Like, you are really? No.

[D]

I mean, literally, you could put him on every team that has. Has a thin wide receiver depth chart like we're talking about. It's.

[C]

It's.

[D]

It's really thin, dude. It's like Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, and after that, it's Nick West, Brigakine Ashton, Darren Dion Burks, Anthony Gold, Laquan Treadwell, Coleman, Owen Wolf.

[E]

I think. I think Diggs is more likely to go to the Commanders if they just don't do this Brandon Iuk thing. He's from. He went to Maryland. I think that makes more sense than him going to, like, Indianapolis. So.

[D]

Just saying.

[C]

All right, before we move on to the NFC west and all the previews there, don't forget to support our sponsor, Hard Rock bet. Download the Hard Rock BET app today, Florida Sportsbook. And of course, the home for all the action of the NBA Finals that we obviously have converted the show over to right now. So make sure you go check out all the action at Hard Rock Bet. Don't forget, they've got same game parlays, they've got profit boost in game live betting. It all happens at Hard Rock Bet. And new signups bet 5 bucks. Get 150 in bonus bets when you bet over at Hard Rock Bet, Payball and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida. And Florida offered by the Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and other states must be 21 in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concern about gambling in Florida. Call 1-833-PLAY-WISE in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.

[A]

A decade ago, the ethanol kingpin of Iowa became the king of corn in Brazil.

[C]

So we met with a lot of larger farmers, went from Bahia to Tocatines

[D]

to Monte Grosso, and he brought a team of executives.

[A]

They were going to help the country get in on a gold rush.

[E]

Carbon and its derivatives are going to be really the next great commodity that

[C]

the globe's going to trade.

[A]

But back home in Iowa, trouble was brewing.

[D]

If you live in Iowa, your land, your water and your voice could all be at risk.

[C]

Thanks to a man named Bruce Rastetter.

[A]

Now people are questioning if his climate solutions have anything to do with climate at all.

[D]

Gotta give Bruce and the guys credit. They're Republicans.

[E]

They don't give a about any of this.

[A]

Now on this season of Drilled Carbon Cowboys, the story of how the ethanol kingpin of Iowa became the king of corn in Brazil, and what it tells us about the limits of technology and markets to solve the climate crisis. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[F]

Hi, I'm Chris Fairbanks.

[A]

And I'm Karen Kilgariff. We host do youo Need a Ride? The mobile comedy podcast that answers the question, what does it sound like when we drive our comm around the wild streets of Los Angeles?

[F]

Yes, every week we pick up a hilarious guest, maybe run some errands, share some laughs and our dreams.

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Like when Martha Kelly shared her career pivot. I want to become a influencer of divorced moms whose kids have gone off

[E]

to college, who have decided they're going

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to start living life for themselves.

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Or the time Baron Vaughn got distracted by the majestic scenery.

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Then there's a freaking deer right there

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on the side of the road. Holy shit. Eating freaking glass.

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Road, grass.

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Road, glass. I wish you said glass.

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New episodes drop every Monday on the exactly right network.

[F]

Listen to do youo Need a ride? On the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[A]

Thank you.

[E]

You're welcome.

[C]

This week at Safeway and Albertsons, red, green or black, seedless grapes are $1.99 per pound limit six pounds. Member price with coupon and fresh boneless pork shoulder Country Style ribs. Value packs are $2.49 per pound member price plus selected sizes and varieties of General Mills cereals or Treat bars. Nature Valley Granola Bars, Mots, Fruit by the Foot or Gushers are $1.99 each. Member price when you buy. 3.

[D]

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[C]

Visit safewayoralbertsons.com for more deals and ways to save. Let's start at the top, gentlemen, with the Rams, shall we? Pretty fun offseason for it. After a very weird, like, NFL draft, vibes were not good. A couple weeks later, all of a sudden, Miles Garrett's there. I've never seen a human being as happy as Miles Garrett walking around training camp. He has a smile a mile wide or miles wide. You could even say thank you, I'll see myself out. Dad joke for you.

[E]

And then he froze.

[D]

I love it. Then he froze right after that. He's like, I'm out. Made my best joke in the whole entire show and I'm out.

[C]

I didn't even prepare it too. Just came up. So look, obviously we know we have a reigning MVP here. We have a great head coach. You have Aaron Donald thinking about returning. I mean, there's certainly a momentum here. But Debro, I feel like sometimes this momentum with all these stars, especially aging stars, doesn't always go the way we think it's going to go. I look at the schedule, it's tough. I look obviously, you know, the Rams had some challenges last year with some health issues, a little bit of Devonte Adams issues, a little bit of Puka issues. They're deep at running back, but it certainly seems like this is a team that's a favorite for everything for a good reason. Do you think they're a worthy favorite in your opinion?

[D]

I think they are a very worthy favorite. But we also have to talk about, like this roster, as good as it is it you're going to say it's

[C]

top heavy and I'm going to say the same thing, which is every year

[D]

I feel like it's very top heavy. But the other part about this is I just feel like this tepidness of like we're all in on it and it's like, does this go horribly? I don't want it to for the Rams and the Rams fans and stuff, but it's like you're a Matthew Stafford injury away from. You're not a Super bowl contender anymore. Puka Nakua has been banged over the last Few years. Devonte Adams was banged up last year. He's getting older as well. Alaric Jackson is in the news for all the wrong reasons. The. The offensive line has been banged up in previous seasons. I, you know, I. I would say I feel actually better about the depth on the defensive side and the. The. The state of their defense than I do about the top heavy nature of their offense. Again, going back to. And I know this point has been belabored a ton. How much better would you feel about this offensive situation with Makai Lemon instead of Ty Simpson? I would feel a ton better or an offensive lineman, because we were also. Either if we weren't mocking Makai Lemon to this team or, you know, pick your wide receiver, flavor du jour, Jordan Tyson, what have you. We were mocking an offensive lineman. If Lyric Jackson misses time or gets suspended or whatever because of what he. He's in the news cycle right now. If that happens, you're down an offensive lineman and you have a statuesque quarterback with back issues. Is that great? Not so much. So the Rams, like, sure. Like, I. I'm willing to talk about their. Their roster is freaking awesome.

[C]

Yeah.

[D]

They're super bowl favorites, and they probably win the super bowl and all that kind of stuff. I'm just saying I've got a bad feeling like, this could go sideways, and it's not really hard to see how it could.

[C]

Erickson, you're statuesque. To me, it's about Matthew Stafford chiseled, staying healthy. Right? You got the chiseled chin. It's got the Riz. He's got the whole thing going on there. Mogging for the camera later in the show. Let's mog off at the end

[D]

of this.

[E]

And we're trying to get the more people to watch our videos, not less.

[C]

We're Rams maxing here.

[D]

Yeah, yeah. Put the tiny hammer away. Eric's good enough, buddy.

[C]

To me, it's just about. More than anything, it's Matthew Stafford health. If Matthew Stafford's healthy, we find a way. We will be a playoff team here for the Rams, and we will go on to have a pretty good playoff run. So I think that is the. The, the most crucial thing more than anything else, because of all the depth challenges that D. Bro pointed out very astutely, the depth challenge at quarterback is the one that undoes them.

[E]

At the end of the day, I'd agree with that. But what team isn't, you know, dependent on their quarterback staying healthy? Right? So I don't want to, like, overbear that type of conversation And I mean who knows if Ty Simpson has to start a couple games this year, maybe he's good, maybe he's not. It's an option. At least they have and they can always hit up. Jim Garoppolo, he's a free agent. We know he knows this offense and I think that he would be the first guy Sean McBay calls if there was some type of injury flare up with Matthew Stafford in his back. So I think that overall their offense is going to be top five. They're going to be locked and loaded. Honestly, I think that the reason they win the super bowl this year is their defense getting Miles Garrett again the highlight of their off season. The Rams were fourth in pressure rate last season. They just added the reigning sack record breaker in Miles Garrett. And the thing that the big difference between him and Jared Verse. Jared Verse actually had more pressures than Miles Garrett did last year, but he had a much lower sack rate. He had less than double digit sacks despite finishing second in the NFL in total pressure. So he didn't always come away with the sack at the end of the day, at the end of the play. That's what Miles Garrett does every single time. Other things to note too. What was the poor part of this Rams defense last year was a secondary. So what do they do? Jalen Watson and Trent McDuffie. Trent McDuffie is an all pro cornerback. Like he is a lockdown shutdown type of guy. Another really cool point about the Rams too. Last year led the NFL and dropped interceptions. Ten dropped interceptions.

[C]

That's a really interesting stat.

[E]

That's a really good when those then become game flipping field flipping type of plays. Okay, now you're getting short field. You're not have to be as reliant on the office because Matthew Stafford's not going to win MVP again. He's not going to throw as many touchdowns. The offense isn't going to be as good as it was last year because of the point and reasons that Deborah laid out. Devonte Adams is another year older. Maybe Puka doesn't play as many games but to make up for that they just get the best defensive player in football over the last like 20 years and miles Garrett to make sure I can make up for it.

[C]

How what the percentage was of double teams that Miles Garrett faced too. Because I think that's the difference also

[E]

dictates where the team runs the ball.

[C]

Well that's what I'm saying is like you know, great Jared versus great. I'm a big Jared Verse fan. Yeah. Jared versus freaking Good. And I. And I won. The Rams got him. I was like, wow, this is going to be. This is going to be a great situation there for him. But. And it's not a knock on Jared Verse. You literally have to game plan around Miles Garrett. Like, that's. That's the problem there. So what effect does that have on the rest of the team? And to your point, Andrew, it's. It's amazing. A 10 dropped interceptions is a lot, you know, and yet they still had more interceptions than the jets, which is unbelievable. To still drop 10 of them and

[D]

still have everybody had that.

[C]

That's. I know. But I'm still.

[E]

I can't wait for the Jets. Week one. Pick six.

[D]

I'm going to bet. I'm going to be all over betting that first touchdown.

[E]

First touchdown of that game. Pick six, Cam Ward. I love him, but if he could just do a. Do me a solid and throw. Pick six in Week 1 against the

[C]

jets, yes or no? Aaron Donald comes out of retirement. Debra.

[E]

Yes. Yeah.

[C]

Erickson.

[E]

Yeah, I'm warming on it. I think it's going to. I don't think it's going to be one of. I don't think it's going to be Eric Weddle situation. I think it's like, no, if Aaron Donald's in, he's in.

[C]

Oh, he's in.

[D]

And he's gonna be gonna wait till towards the end of training camp because he's just gonna take the veteran thing.

[C]

Nobody's gonna want to do training camp. He's like, whatever, I'll show up. And we.

[E]

Aaron Donald is a psychopath when it comes to. Have y' all seen any of the clips?

[D]

Like, in his home gym, bro is

[C]

just like, I was putting up 160 on each side. Oh, my God.

[D]

Yeah. Super setting 160s on the flat bench and then turning into rows and everything else. And I'm just like, wow, psycho.

[C]

It's funny because, like, my youngest daughter plays football. She's just started, like, weight training stuff now because she's just turning 14. So, you know, we have the gym once a week for her and her teammates to go to. So now she's getting familiar with weights. And I. And she saw that video and she was like. She's like, is that 160 on each hand? I said, yep. And I took her to show her in the gym what that weight looks like. And she was like, that's insane. She was like, I can't even wrap my brain around that.

[E]

That's lifting multiple. Andrew Erickson.

[C]

That's Right, that's on each side there.

[D]

That's an Ericsson on each arm.

[C]

A little lighter now. We lost all that blood from the dog bite. Just checking out the schedule there. They got the Australia game, and then they go to host the Giants at SoFi in week two for Monday night Football homeover. So a little weird start to the season in terms of like, kind of the back and forth they've got to do. But look, let's talk about the Rams here. Well, let's start with the win total, because what do you think? The win. We're gonna do it inverse because the Rams are so highly touted.

[D]

10 or 11 and a half.

[C]

I bet you it's 11 and a half, Erickson.

[E]

It's got to be 11 and a half.

[C]

11 and a half it is. So over is minus 120. Under plus 120 to make the playoffs. Minus 317. No. Is plus 400. So obviously this. You know, we all think they're a playoff team, even with issues. I think they sneak into the playoffs, division winners only, plus 105, which I thought was kind of interesting. Like, it's kind of like, you know, they're factoring in the age and the depth here, and I think that's fair. Conference winner, plus 305. Not bad. Three to one. I kind of like that. And super bowl winner is only 575. So that is top of value.

[E]

Value's been nuked, especially after they got Miles Garrett.

[D]

So, yeah, it's all been solved considerably.

[C]

Yeah, it's funny, too, because you would have thought, like, for the division, even, like, plus 105. Like, yeah, you got the 49ers in there. You got the Seahawks. That's what I mean. Like, I'm surprised that it's. It's plus 105, but the Garrett effect has been real on that board.

[D]

I would.

[C]

I think they can win 12 games, but I don't love the.

[D]

I don't want to bet it, though. That's the highest win. I think that the highest win total in the entire NFL. I don't want to bet the over on that.

[C]

Conference winner. Three to one, I think, is the best bet on the board for this team. That's what I would do.

[E]

Or just. I think I have. Or.

[D]

Or go full. Full heel and bet him to not make the playoffs. That's the only other thing that.

[C]

The thing is on the board, but

[D]

I don't want to do it. I'm just saying.

[E]

So here's how you get your cake and Eat it too. Matthew Stafford gets hurt. Okay. He misses a couple games. So then how do the Rams win games? Defense. Miles Garrett to win defense. Player of the year again.

[D]

Oh, yeah, that's good call. And then very good call.

[E]

That's better than a lot of the numbers you just listed off.

[C]

I would think it's a number.

[D]

What is? Miles Garrett to win.

[C]

I thought it was like three to one betting pros. In the meantime, we'll talk about The San Francisco 49ers weak schedule last year. We all knew it was weak sauce and well, they took advantage of it. So good on them. Brock Purdy, the king of system quarterbacks. Good in the system yet again. Oh, don't be like that. Come on. Mac Jones went out there, was dropping 300 yard games. Call it what it used, it's successful. But he's a system quarterback and that's okay.

[D]

That's.

[C]

That's okay. It's okay to be a system quarterback. It's not a problem.

[D]

So dismissive.

[C]

Oh, you know, it's so hard to dismiss a guy who was taken last in the NFL dwaft.

[D]

And he's been that he's better than that. It shouldn't have happened. Yeah. How dare you. You should.

[C]

You should feel he's in a perfect system for a quarterback of his skill set. And it's great. This is the, this is the poster child for if you land in the right spot, good things can happen no matter where you get drafted. It's not a knock, it's just a fact. Anyway, I mean, if you think Sam Darnold wasn't, didn't stay in that system, that wouldn't have been all right. They would have been fine. I think the 49ers would have won the same amount of games last year. Just saying. You can look confused all you want. It's a fact. Anyway, let's talk about Brock Purdy's weapons here. We've got one coming off Achilles injury in George Kittle. We got one coming off 400 plus touches again in Christian McCaffrey and God bless him, he stayed healthy last year. We've got Mike Evans, who I love as a Hall of famer, but he's 47 years old and he has a chronic hamstring issues. You bring in underwhelming Christian Kirk, you've got on top of that Ricky Pearsall, who has yet to really flash full potential and he's at a host of different injuries. It's a bit of a cluster. I think it's San Francisco and I don't mean the magnetic kind of cluster that kind of hovers over the practice facility. I mean an actual cluster in terms of a lot of things that have to break right for them. Not to mention a 37 year old left tackle who also had some injury issues last year. I'm concerned about the 49ers now that we've raised the bar of the schedule on them a little bit. Does anyone share my concerns about the 49ers?

[D]

I mean, I'm concerned too because just because of this is a roster that's getting very old very fast. But, you know, so again, like, yes. Is it a house of cards with the offense and stuff? Absolutely. Is the defense a little bit underwhelming? But the other side of is you could paint them again going to this. It's like I could paint a really positive picture about this defense if Nick Bosa comes back. They traded for osa. So the defensive line, a healthy Dre. Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner. I I feel really good about the defense this year. If everybody can stay healthy, I do have more of a. I hope the offense can stay healthy for all the things that you outlined, Joey. So yeah, I've got concerns about the 49ers.

[C]

Definitely. Erickson, what are your thoughts on the San Francisco 49ers offense? That there's no doubt about the talent, the skill set of it and there's no doubt that Kyle Shanahan knows what he's doing when in terms of play calling and as long as it's not in a pressurized situation where you have to just hold the football and run it to run out clock to win a Super Bowl. As long as we're staying out of that, we're good. So talk to me about the situation you see another year older for a 49ers team. Is the window still open or is it starting to close a little bit?

[E]

The fact that they were so close to winning the division last year, despite all of the injuries that happened on their defense, they had no one left on defense and they still were able to do enough, at least on the offensive side of the ball, enough on defense to keep themselves in contention. Now, playing a little bit of an easier schedule is always helpful, but it's only easy up to a point because they still have to face their own division, which we've talked about as one of the toughest divisions in football. When you're not talking about the Arizona Cardinals between the Los Angeles Ramsay, the Seattle Seahawks and the obviously the San Francisco 49ers. So they feel Boomer bust, right? A lot of if, ands or buts about, well, if this guy stays healthy, this guy stays healthy, this guy comes back from his season ending injury, can he return to form? So there's a wide range of outcomes from the 49ers where you could see them. Hey, if everything kind of works out, the planets align, then they could be the number one seed and have the best record in all of football. We could also see the other side of the coin where it's a disaster and this team's picking in the top 10 next year because just things just get unraveled at the seams. So I lean a little bit more towards the upside case with them just because I'm a believer in Kyle Shanahan. And this offense just, it just always cooks. And offense tends to be a little bit more sticky year to year than defense is. I think the defensive regression for injuries will just work. It has to work in their favor. It just simply has to. I think they bring in Raheem Morris as a replacement. Robert Salah is a, was a good hire for them. Obviously losing Salah is a big loss for them, but I think that Raheem Morris is a really good defensive coordinator, so I think that he can at least fill the void somewhat. So we'll see their schedule again opening up against the Rams in Australia. That's weird, but it's a game that they could win potentially because it's a weird setting and they're going to be underdogs. And then after that it's Miami and Arizona. So you could see, look up, this team is three and oh, so that's where I'm like, okay, I feel like I want to be in on the Niners early when they are healthy and Mike Evans hasn't injured his hamstring yet and Ricky Pearsall is healthy. And then maybe you try to cash out in one of these prediction markets where it's like, Yeah, I got 49ers, you know, three to one or whatever to win the division and now they're in first place. Other teams haven't started out nearly as well. Okay, how can I cash out before things unravel like we've seen with this team? That again, to your point, talking about a top heavy team, I think the 49ers are probably more top heavy than even the Rams are. Especially when you just look at defenses

[C]

and, and already going in with some injury questions before we even figure that out. The other thing I can't shake about the 49ers guys is the absolute ass kicking they got by the Seattle Seahawks in the playoffs. Like that was, you know, you're supposed to be built and, and go against the teams in your own division and play them tough. They got spanked in that game. That game was over in the first quarter. Did it feel like unbelievable?

[D]

Yeah.

[E]

Did it feel like the 49ers ran out of gas? It was just like everything kind of caught up like they had.

[C]

No, no. That's a great question. You know what it felt like? It felt like they were completely outclassed. It felt like they had their number. The coaching staff knew exactly what they wanted to do and they knew exactly how they wanted to attack the 49ers and they just bullied them into submission in the first 15 minutes of that game. That's what it felt like to me, guys.

[D]

Chaney didn't have a counter punch. He didn't have a counter like he did. That's who was left of like, like

[C]

late in that game.

[E]

Yeah, but that was it though. Who else was left? I, I, that's, that's the only thing

[D]

I'm, that's fair that my other thing about it, that's where it comes back to like the state of their offensive line, which we haven't talked about a ton yet. Like Trent Williams is the anchor, but the rest of that offensive line is like diamond guard position.

[C]

You don't know who's playing guard too. That, that's not an offensive line.

[D]

You can impose your will and just run it down there twice throats if you want to do that. Like they struggled to run the ball at an efficient clip the entire year until they like it got a little bit better than the back half when they got a little bit away from the, the inside outside zone stuff and they went more to gap and stuff like that. But like still it wasn't ever great.

[C]

Now 41 to 6, by the way, that score in that playoff game.

[E]

Yeah, they got, I mean it was curb stomp.

[D]

Yeah, they got crushed.

[C]

And it's funny because if you saw that they played the last time they played each other was Genu January 3rd. Before that.

[E]

Week 18, right?

[C]

Week 18, yeah. And that was a 13:3 muscle game.

[D]

Right.

[C]

It was like, oh, we're just jockeying for. And then whatever. The coaching staffs went away, went to their corners and came back with new plans. One of them came up with a really good plan. The other one, I mean, and look, I know it's crowd factor and I know like, and Seattle was on the road and they still beat the 49ers in their own building, too. On week 18 on the road, Seattle,

[D]

when they got easily the best defense in all of football ball last year, too.

[C]

It's funny because they went in September, it was 1713 in Seattle. And then by the time we got to January was 13:3. And then by the time we got to the playoffs, it was 41 to 6. And at one point they were up 246 at half. And then it was 346 in the third quarter. It was just like. Just an embarrassment. And even so, like the embarrassment of the domination of that game, too. Like it was a dominant one. Let's talk about the schedule here. For this team, late November is important. They have a trip to Dallas, a Mexico City game against the Minnesota Vikings, and then they play the Seattle Seahawks in November. So to Erickson's point, like, might be a good start. But circle November on your calendars for this

[E]

reminder to cash out of all 49ers.

[D]

That's exactly what I was gonna say. The cash out moment is set.

[C]

A reminder for me to cash out all 49er bets November 1st. Thank you. All right, let's talk about the super bowl for them, plus 1900. I'm a pass for me.

[D]

I don't know.

[C]

No conference. Plus 1150. No. No. Division winner. Plus 325. It's intriguing, but I'm a hard pass on this, too.

[D]

Yeah, I. I don't really want to bet anything with this team. I'm sure their. Their wits were in total at probably nine and a half.

[C]

Well, to make the playoffs. Minus 146. Yes. No. Plus 145. Win total is nine and a half. Minus 140 on the over. You can get ten and a half in the under at minus 125. I gotta tell you, I think Erickson's. I think Erickson. I think you. You've laid out the path. Plus 325 for the division right now. And then sell it off and reinvest in somebody else. That's what you do, don't you? Don't you, De Niro. Me too. It's bad enough when he does it. There's only one guy.

[D]

He's not wrong. He's not wrong.

[C]

There's one guy who's got that face. I'm the guy's got that face. You don't have that face. You need that nose sucking on a lemon.

[D]

It's like the Foster's, like bitter beer face commercials.

[C]

Funny guy. You're real funny.

[D]

So good.

[C]

You Tell jokes. It's good jokes. It's funny jokes. All right, let's move on to, you know, a team that just won the super bowl last year. Nobody seems to give her any respect. I know they lost their offensive coordinator, but Mike McDonald, again, credit to him, like, what a game plan that he had there to spank the 49ers in division. Right. It's hard to beat teams twice in a year. Right. He did it like, it's just hard to do. And he goes out there, he spanks the Patriots to a team that looked like they were the golden child. They could do no wrong there. He again, a great game plan. The defense was spectacular last year. I know it hurts to lose the oc they promoted from within, so it's not like all of a sudden, you know, Brian Flurry is part of the. The crew. So I don't know how much is going to change, but I think the big thing that's going to change here for this team is Ken Walker's gone, Zach Charbonne is not there, which means we're turning over this run game to a bunch of other guys. So you have Emmanuel Wilson coming in. You draft the Jadarian, Price, Erickson. Can those two names carry the torch for this run game that was so important to the Seahawks last year? The way that they want to play, the style they want to play on defense, they need these guys to perform. Can that duo do it? And if you want to throw George Holani in there, I'll tell you, don't.

[E]

I am skeptical that they can do it. Just this team was so reliant on the run last year, and that set up everything for Sam Darnold and JSN to absolutely cook from an efficiency standpoint. I've got concerns with loss of Clint Kubia. I mean, he was. He's been great. Every spot he's been in as an offensive play caller, and that's why he was so heavily decorated as a head coach candidate and why he was basically on the free agent market for five seconds before the Las Vegas Raiders made him their head coach. So I think it's just a big loss. And we've seen this before with coaches and teams that even coming off of winning season, super bowl winning season, they lose these key coordinators and sometimes it's hard to make up for it. Now, the defense, to your point, with Mike McDonald, dude, like, unless, like, they just get destroyed by injuries, even if that's to happen, like, the scheme is so good and it's built to beat all the offenses in the NFL, especially the ones in the division between John McVeigh and Kyle Shanahan, the fact that they had the best defense in the NFL and they also faced some of the toughest offensive minds week in and week out and dominated those teams. It's just a credit to how good McDonald is as a head coach, defensive mind. So I think the defense is going to keep them very much in contention. I just have reservations about if Sam Darnold takes a step back without click Kubiak, I think they might let him throw the ball a little bit more. If you look, it's kind of interesting because look how much they've invested in wide receivers versus running backs, right? They drafted one in the first round, at the end of the first round, but they paid jsn, they extended him. They paid Rashid Shahid, who they traded for last year, and he wasn't really unlocked in this offense at all till like, very, very late into the year. So I think that they might actually put more on Sam Darnold's shoulders as opposed to last year where it was maybe Kubiak calling more of the shots. So, again, Sam Darnold, someone that I think that has always tried to prove people wrong and prove me wrong last year, I know I was picking against him a lot, weeks, more often than not, and he was a Super bowl champion. And I think that if they're going to repeat, I think it's going to be put more on Sam Darnold's plate. I think he's got to continue to play at a high level.

[C]

Is that a good idea, D Ro to put more on Sam Darnold's plate or is the special sauce to Sam Darnold's success limiting his calories?

[D]

I think it's definitely, yeah. What him watching his diet when he goes to, you know, into the pantry too often, Twinkie or the late night snack and stuff. The bad version of Sam Darnold has a tendency to come out.

[C]

I eat because I'm unhappy.

[D]

I'm unhappy because I eat.

[E]

Yes.

[C]

Ask the Vikings.

[D]

I'm with Erickson that I've got concerns about this offense because taking a step back because the efficiency that Clint Kubiak with the offensive scheme has dialed up and I understand they're promoting from within. That doesn't always go well because it. It still comes down to like, you can promote from within and the guy run the same scheme, but he's not pulling the same levers at certain pain points in a game or calling the same plays or running the same the run of the offense in the same manner. And we also need to talk about the fact that Seattle was an incredibly efficient offense. JSN, he had 44% of the team's receiving yardage market share. The closest guy behind him last year was puka at 37%. So some of that is gonna regress. This was an offense last year was that was fourth best in yards per play. They were sixth best in drives ending in an offensive score. So those numbers just naturally are going to come down and I think a

[C]

lot of that's going to get tied

[D]

to Kubiak and it should because I mean the Saints even go back to the Saints before the entire offense imploded in the team got hurt. They Carr was putting up crazy per drop back numbers and so they are going to take a step back.

[C]

I mean just look at what happened

[D]

with the Eagles and they lost Dyke in and they kept trying to chase replacing him. They're still doing that to this day. So I think it's going to be a big thing. I'm not saying Seattle is going to totally fall off. They're not going to make the playoffs. They're going to be like a seven win team and stuff because their defense is still going to be a top five unit. Even talking about their defense, they were the runaway best defense in the entire freaking NFL. Fine. If you want to have a conversation with them versus the Texans, I get it, I'll entertain the conversation. But I think we still all so all know that Seattle was the best freaking defense on paper last year. I think losing Tariq Woolen is also going to play in this secondary. Is Devon Witherspoon really still really freaking good? Is Josh Job still good? Is Nick Emmanue good and he can take another step in the second year? Okay, fine, all those things can be true. But as pure as Seattle ran last year, there is going to be a certain amount of regression. The question is how much.

[C]

Yeah, look, JSN is all world great season for him. I, I don't see anybody really taking targets from him. Shahid has his role in the offense. Cooper cup is dust I think pretty much. You know, I'm, I'm surprised they didn't do a little bit more. Unless they think that Tory Horton who's you know, healthy could do more. But then again Tori Horton kind of does what Shahid does so I don't really see a path for him.

[E]

I think they, I, I mean I like AJ Barner.

[C]

I think he's an underwriter which is AJ Barner's. A little under.

[D]

Yeah. Surgeries this off season too, by the way. He just came out.

[C]

He did. So it's, it's. It's gonna be tricky for them to repeat, but just don't underestimate them because I remember last year doing betting pro shows with Andrew and the number was eight and a half. And I was like, I think this is wrong. I think this is a 10 win team. I just, I just like, I just thought the Seahawks played really well two years ago. And then last year going in, I was like eight and a half seems kind of like almost disrespectful to a team that played such good defense. And I still did not my wildest dreams think they were going to win a Super Bowl. Let's take a look at the. The numbers here for them. Super bowl winner to repeat. Plus 1150. No, thank you. I'll pass. Conference winner plus 614 to get back. Not feeling it, although it's a nice return.

[D]

Six to one.

[C]

That's tough to win the division again. Plus 225. Now this would take, I think a Stafford. This is where the Stafford injury or the November swoon of the 49ers. It would be intriguing here, but I, I think if you like them to win the division, you wait and let the 49ers get out ahead. So, yeah, that's the path for that.

[D]

Bet that in season.

[C]

Yeah, that's more of a. That's more of a October 1st bet than a June 11th bet. Yes. To make the playoffs. Minus 225. So Vegas still thinks they're a playoff team. Plus 257 to not make the playoffs. What do you think the win total this year is for The Seahawks, gentlemen? Ten and a half, Erickson?

[E]

I think probably ten and a half.

[C]

You are correct, boys. Under plus 126 for the under. Minus 125 for the over. That's a. Stay away from me. I'm just gonna.

[E]

Yeah.

[D]

I'm not betting anything with this team.

[E]

What?

[C]

Yeah.

[E]

Is the line. Week one against the Patriots.

[C]

Because they are three and a half. It was three and a half.

[E]

And then what. What did the super bowl close at? Was it the same line?

[D]

I got three and a half. Three and a half. I think it got to four because it's interesting because.

[E]

Because I think you have to look at the Patriots and say, okay, this team is very different than it was last year. You're. I mean, A.J. brown, like you have totally different receivers that you didn't have last year.

[C]

Do you have A healthier in theory. Drake May a healthier.

[E]

Drake May a healthier. Will Campbell in theory. Do you think that this Patriot.

[D]

I want to take The Patriots Week 1.

[C]

Took the Patriots to cover that game.

[D]

I'm taking the Pat Patriots week one.

[E]

I missed. I missed the take the Patriots party, apparently.

[D]

Sorry we left you out. You were doing stuff with your puppy Joe, and I felt like for my

[E]

life

[D]

on top of you. I just want to make the bed.

[C]

Yeah. Plus four and a half right now. Minus 115 is what you're getting.

[E]

That seems pretty good. Almost like it's smashed again.

[C]

Yeah, it's always possible. I can see that. I could see that going down. I mean, look, it is in Seattle. Okay? So it's going to be a very hype train. But I also think the Patriots coaching staff is licking their wounds after getting embarrassed in that game. And I think Variable is a smart enough football coach.

[D]

By the way, make a statement.

[C]

We underestimated the AJ Brown vibes since that trade. It's a lot more conversation, a lot more social media stuff about A.J. brown and Drake. May I see a lot of that stuff and a lot less variable stuff. So. Timing is everything in life.

[D]

I'm not spin. Yeah.

[C]

As I told you, it will be a distant memory, that scandal by the time we get to training camp. Nobody cares.

[D]

On the national consciousness inside that locker room. I don't know, you can say the same exact thing, Joey, but inside that locker room, I mean, we can conversation for another day.

[E]

I mean, we're done with the NFC West. We've talked about all the relevant teams. So we can talk about.

[C]

There's one more team to talk about. It's the Arizona Cardinals. Cramming up your cram hole. Leflore. It's another Leflore. Michael Floor takes over. So in the many head coaches that we've had in the history of the Arizona Cardinals, certainly there's some. Some toys here to play with. I mean, if you're Michael Fuller, you got to be excited about the fact that you've got Jeremiah Love, you've got Trey McBride, you've got Michael Wilson coming off a career year, and you've got Marvin Harrison Jr. Project that if you somehow crack the code there, you could have a lot of fun pieces to play with. The problem is don't have a quarterback. You don't. Well, I mean, look, Jacoby Brissette was admirable at times.

[D]

You don't have a quarterback.

[C]

You don't.

[E]

How many weeks did he start with New England before they were like, we have to play Dre by three. Like.

[C]

Well, let's also not. Like, let's also put in context the roster around that team. That was pretty. Yeah.

[D]

And they.

[E]

And they threw Drake May into the fire because they're like, we can't see any more. Jacoby.

[D]

We're back at Patriots.

[C]

Don't worry, I'm going to bring it to Browns talk in a second. You think it's bad now, but let's not forget Jacoby Brissette kind of cruising with the Browns before it was all, desean Watson's healthy again. Let's put him in. And the rest of the team was like, no, please don't do that. We're playing good football with Jacoby Brissette. And everybody liked him. And everybody was like, jacoby Brissette's a wonderful human being and he's really good. And this team is gelling right now. We're playing tough football. We're playing good defense, and the offense is doing enough. Look, the Arizona Cardinals are up against it. If they were in a different division, maybe it'd be a different factor. But the facts are the facts. They're just not. But let's talk about productivity and where they're going forward here because they did draft Carson Beck. How many games do we see Carson Beck get evaluated this year? Under the circumstances of. We assume this is a very sub 500 team. Erickson, how many games? Let's say it at four and a half. Carson back games, easy over. Okay.

[E]

If that. If you give me that bet right now, it's my favorite Cardinals bet.

[C]

Well, you gotta have one, I guess. Dbro, would you go over four and a half, too? I thought it was a good number. Andrew jumped all over it. He was hot to trot on that bad boy.

[D]

I don't know. I think Gardner's gonna get. He'd be up starting over after Brissette, so I don't know. I. I'll take the under. I also don't like Carson Beck. I do not think he's an NFL quarterback.

[E]

Well, I mean, if you're trying to.

[D]

I don't think you're trying to evaluate there.

[E]

If you're trying to lose games, Carson Beck's your best bet, that's fine.

[D]

But the whole evaluating him for the like. I don't think there's a world where the Cardinals go into next season with Carson Beck as their starter again. They're more alive to probably sign a Baker Mayfield or draft a guy. Carson Beck's not going to be the long term Answer for this franchise. He's not.

[C]

We didn't him talk to talk about Baker Mayfield in Arizona, but I. I don't know if they would be smart enough to do that and just say, instead of going for another young quarterback, let's just bring in the veteran. Go win. Because if you look at the history of the Arizona Cardinals, right, the two times in the organization of relevance, Carson Palmer and Kurt Warner, signing veteran quarterbacks with a team that's kind of got a lot of other talent around it. You got, you know, you got Larry Fitzgerald and run this system too.

[E]

Leave it to the Arizona Cardinals to pass on a really talented 20, 27 quarterback, rookie class and draft a veteran or sign a veteran instead.

[C]

So, yeah, 41 in Baker Mayfield. I don't think that's a bad.

[E]

This team is not 38. I think it's. They got a reset franchise.

[D]

I'm gonna fight you on this. That's not a bad move.

[E]

I think it is. Why you want to, like, why do you want to drop in a veteran quarterback to this? Oh, this roster is built to win, dude.

[D]

Okay, fine. Let's list off the offense. Jeremiah Love, Marvin Harrison Jr. Michael Wilson, Trey McBride. The offensive line is league aver, not could be decent.

[C]

All the draft picks of 20, 25 on defense.

[D]

Exactly. You have Walter Nolan, who looked really good in a small sample. They also have Will Johnson.

[C]

Like, and picture for you. Andrew, let me paint a picture for you.

[D]

Yeah, like, I. I'm fine. Baker, draft defense.

[C]

Let's say Matthew Stafford doesn't. Things don't go well for him and McVeigh, and then it's off. You know, we. They're on borrowed time. They know that. Everybody knows. That's why the Miles Garrett trade happened. This is like, hey. With pushing all our chips in. We just talked about all the Seattle, you know, changeover in the running game and, you know, Sam Darnold putting too much on his plate and all that stuff and make everybody sick. And then we Talked about the 49ers being a team that has age and injury history, not on their side. There's an avenue for a team like the Arizona Cardinals to, in a year or two, all of a sudden flip that entire division and be at the top of it. It's not impossible.

[D]

Or if you're a wild card team,

[E]

if you're Baker Mayfield, are you going to the Rams? You going to the Cardinals? The Cardinals?

[C]

You're going to the Rams?

[D]

He's not going to the ranks.

[E]

Exactly.

[D]

They drafted Ty Simpson.

[E]

What I'm saying is like, if it's. If it's the Cardinals, Rams in the bidding for Baker Mayfield in a scenario where Ty Simpson's not their guy. Where. Where are you gonna go? He's gonna go to the Rams. You just need to go to the Cardinals. He'll hit up Kyler Murray and say like, hey, how was your time with Arizona? He's like, no, I mean, it wasn't the best. Not.

[D]

Not every team, especially one that I think is one run. Well, like the Rams is dumb enough to pull a plug on a quarterback without like seeing a full. At least a full season.

[E]

Well, I'm just saying if they see. I mean, they're gonna see me at practice every single day and they might be like, dude, this guy doesn't have it. They may come to that conclusion. I don't know.

[C]

Let's talk about their schedule for a second, shall we? Because the Arizona Cardinals, they open at Los Angeles, where as the, you know, opponent there. Then you have September 20th. They play the Seahawks in San Francisco. So they literally start off with three straight games in division, which I think we all agree that's. That's a real fat looking Owen. Three potentially after that. Giants on the road. So they gotta travel. Then they've got the Detroit Lions at home. Then they get the Rams again. Then they get Denver in their own building. Then they get Dallas on the road, Seattle on the road, Los Angeles again. I don't see how can they open with the Chargers. Pardon me? Not. Not the Rams. They open with the Chargers again at the Chargers though. That. So I'm trying to find the win here before the bye week.

[D]

You're. You're with me, Joey. I think like we're gonna ride to the same. I think this live to go winless. I think this time this team is live to go 0 and 8, like 17 talent on there, so. I know, but this schedule is horrible, dude.

[C]

Week 11 at Kansas City, not an easy place to play.

[D]

Nope.

[C]

I think I found your W. Maybe at home against the commanders. Week 12, maybe. So one in 11, maybe. And they have a late buy. Andrew. They got a late buy too. So they have the Eagles.

[E]

They have the toughest schedule in the NFL. They. They play in the toughest division in the NFL. They have the toughest schedule. They're gonna potentially have the number one overall pick and they're gonna use it on a quarterback. So that's why I can't get behind this. They're gonna sign a veteran guy when they're going to have every single top quarterback staring them Right in the face next year. And I just think that's the best investment.

[C]

At home against the jets, on the road against New Orleans, then at home against Vegas and then San Francisco, who might not be playing for anything. They could easily win their way out of that first pick and like win

[D]

their final four games because that's what this team does.

[C]

Here's what you do, everybody. You bet them to have the first overall pick. This is the best bet on the Cardinals, bet them down the number one overall pick and then sell off at the buy because at the bye week they could be a one or two win team. And then between the Jets, New Orleans, Vegas, San Fran, there could be two wins in there. Especially if like San Fran is like, like not playing for anything starters, playing backups or just threw this towel because the season went so bad and they're like now screw it, we're done. Really? Wouldn't that be. Wouldn't that be just the best too? Like the. The jets, you know, I mean, right on the precipice of another.

[E]

So the point that D. Ro you're talking about how this team could go. Owen 17. Right. We're talking about this team's gonna have the worst record, the number one overall pick. So how is Jeremiah Love the favorite to win rookie of the Year if he's going to be playing for the worst team? I. I couldn't. I know we talked about Raider. I thought so then why is he like. That's what I can't name on the board.

[D]

That's why.

[C]

The second name on the board. He's the best talent.

[D]

That's the biggest name on the board.

[E]

Mendoza was the number one overall pick and he's a quarterback. How is he not.

[D]

I don't know how long or when he's going to start. That's the problem with that. And then he's going to be on a bad team as well. So do you want to guess what

[C]

the Week 1 line is for the Chargers Cardinals, by the way?

[E]

Nine and a half.

[C]

Would you like to take a crack?

[E]

Is it more?

[D]

I'll go lower. I'm not going to say no. I think they're probably gonna be, I'll say six and a half or seven and a half.

[C]

You're not even the neighborhood debro. Andrew was closer without going over. It's ten and a half right now, dude.

[E]

O' Marion Hampton is going to be smashing in fantasy for the first, first two weeks of the season. Like.

[D]

No, that's a lot.

[C]

It is a lot. I could see.

[D]

I think in garbage time. They can get the COVID now. Yeah, yeah.

[C]

They're going to Mendoza. Too much. 430 right now.

[E]

It's. It's so easy.

[C]

My favorite tied at the number one with Love, by the way. They're tied.

[E]

Is that.

[D]

I'm not betting Love for offensive rookie of the year, though.

[E]

I thought earlier when we talked about it, Love was the favorite.

[C]

Well, he ain't anymore because I think people have come to Jesus on that and realize that Cardinals are going to be sledding. There's going to be really bad. So. So the win total for the Cardinals, we could just jump down to that. What do you think that number is, boys?

[E]

Four and a half.

[D]

And a half.

[C]

That is correct.

[E]

I feel like we need to go back and review these guesses and see what our hit rates.

[D]

I feel like we missed one. I think we missed one along the way.

[C]

Has been very good.

[D]

That's the thing. We haven't looked at any of these. Just for everybody at home. We haven't looked at any of these prior.

[C]

So the over is plus 125. The under is minus 135. So yeah, might want to tease this. Maybe down to three and a half.

[D]

I was like, this feels like we were talking about earlier. If you could bet this in season and play for that, that, that, you know, it goes down to say three and a half. I say you play terrible.

[C]

I see you go crush, crush the Cardinals on the way into the season and on the way over later, week 14 by when nobody's looking, go the other way. Just like cash out of it and then take what you can get and put it on stage. Put it on the, you know, the Miami Dolphins to be the worst team in the league.

[D]

Miles Garrett to be defensive player of the year. Put it on that last question.

[C]

Can we talk about what that is, what that number is?

[E]

I don't think we did defensive player of the year. No, I did not. I think it was like close.

[C]

He adds the top of the board plus 430. Yeah, that's so really good. Rookie of the year, I love. Yeah. So great.

[E]

Yeah, I think that both of those are. Those are like my two, my favorites and usually it's those are the. I usually like betting in the other bigger markets like mvp, offensive rookie of the year, like those types of markets.

[C]

But I love defensive players.

[E]

For me it's like, yeah, these point out to me. Last question on the Cardinals. Really crowded backfield with love, Algier James Connor, Trey Betson. One of these guys has got to get traded.

[C]

Well, Benson's already hurt, so.

[E]

He's already hurt again.

[C]

Yeah.

[D]

James Connor will be traded. I'll give you the two spots. Right, but not in the packers of the Lions.

[E]

But not if Benson's hurt.

[D]

They still algier in love, bro.

[E]

That's two running back. I mean, you got what you want. I mean, they lost every single running back last year on their team like Bam Knight was.

[D]

And they could resign somebody like a Michael Carter or D. Mercado if he gets cut or something like that. No, I, I think James Connor is going to get traded, full stop.

[E]

Not if Trey Benson's injured. I feel like they would want a third running back.

[D]

Trey Benson's not factoring into this freaking backfield. Even if it's healthy. It doesn't matter.

[C]

I think for a residential standpoint, James Connor's age is. Is an automatic move on. And you could just find somebody off the scrap heap who's cheaper.

[D]

This is, this is one of those things where you do right by the veteran and you, you, you give them.

[E]

So why did they resign him in the first. The first place if they're trying to do right?

[C]

Everybody in Arizona was.

[E]

Where does he go then?

[D]

Is he a Detroit lion or Lions? That's my two desk commanders, actually.

[E]

Could be kind of nice too.

[D]

He either reunites with Jonathan Gannon or Drew Petzing. And both of those could use a strong RB2 with the Josh Jacob stuff. And if Isaiah Pacheco. The Lions get into camp and they're like, oh, man, this dude's cooked.

[C]

All right, we gotta. They're kicking us out. This conversation is never gonna end. So the parking lot's closing. That'll do it for the tailgate. Subscribe to the channel like this video. Do good things. Bijan Robinson jersey could be yours. We'll see you next time we're out.

[D]

Welcome to the tailgate. The fail safe from stale takes Erickson. D Bro Joe stay late. Tail of the game taping trade grades, dual action play fakes and JJ Spades hit the day slate like hopscotch on play dates. All things NFL takes away. This the tailgate yet?

[C]

It's the tailgate. Hey, it's Alec Baldwin.

[D]

This season on my podcast.

[C]

Here's the thing.

[D]

I talked to composer Marc Shaiman.

[C]

It's about the hang. It's the pleasure of hanging out with the people that you're with.

[D]

You know, Rob and I was always a great hang. And director Morgan Neville.

[E]

Film school teaches you all the wrong things about making documentary. What do you want to say? Documentary is all about your ear. What do you hear? I feel like my job is listening really, really hard.

[D]

Listen to here's the thing on the

[C]

iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas and I'm CJ Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the Playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season, and I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was firm. You just understood. That's how personal it got.

[E]

Wow.

[C]

Then after that, Game seven, my mark keep coming to you. He's like, you know I love you, dawg. You know it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point game on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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It's that time to put on your jersey and wave your flag, whoever you root for.

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Why do I watch the World Cup? That's like asking me, why do I breed?

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And it's beautiful.

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The guys are young and cute, and it's not just a game.

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It's your culture.

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I like watching it with my dad. It's a connecting force.

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From Futuro Studios, I'm Fernanda Echabarri, and this is American Football, a show about soccer culture in the US and its underdog roots. Listen to American football on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. If you live in LA, you already spend about 89% of your life in

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a car, so we turned it into a podcast on do youo Need a Ride? We pick up our comedian friends, drive around Los Angeles, and discuss what's happening in the world around us.

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Cars are very rude to bicyclists, but

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