← FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Pat Fitzmaurice's 2026 Breakout Stars: These 10 Players Are Ready to DOMINATE! (Ep. 1996)
00:59:41
Loading summary
Transcript135 lines
- [00:00]
Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Brooks Running Advertiser
Guaranteed Human Max softness, Max energy Max run. Go on a run that never runs out. In the new Brooks Glycerin Max 2 dual cell DNA tuned cushion is optimized for soft landings and powerful toe offs while a glide roll rocker helps provide a more fluid step through. To help you truly tune out and max your run, shop the Glycerin Max 2@brooksrunning.com
- [00:30]
Joey P. (Host)
welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the fantasy football podcast and it's me, Joey P. Joe P. Zeppia. And today we're going to take a look at the 2026 breakouts via pat Fitz Morris. That's right, our own Patty Cakes has made a top 10 list and I can't wait to get to number one on this list. You got to watch the entire show so you get all the way there. No fast forwarding because these names are going to win you some Fantasy Leagues in 2026. The NFL Draft is just days away now make sure you stay with us for all of our coverage. And guess who's gonna be there live? Me, Joey P. So check out the Tailgate, our new channel as well. We're gonna have some content on there. Again, search Tailgate NFL subscribe right there to the new channel and of course here, also on the program. By the way, I didn't forget you. He's sitting quietly in the corner for once. For once on this show, the Athletics, Jake Seeley, who's going to give some more insights to some of the players that Pat's going to go into the. So before I turn the floor over to Pat, Jake, it seems like you had something on your mind you wanted to share with the audience today.
- [01:30]
Jake Seeley
Are you going to be at Pittsburgh?
- [01:31]
Joey P. (Host)
I will be in Pittsburgh. Are you going to be.
- [01:33]
Jake Seeley
I will be in Pittsburgh on Wednesday.
- [01:34]
Joey P. (Host)
Did we just become best friends?
- [01:38]
Jake Seeley
I'm up there for the Dane Bruger beast like giveaway type stuff. So we're going to be answering fantasy pre draft and all that type of stuff. So where are you on Wednesday? Because maybe we need to get together.
- [01:49]
Joey P. (Host)
Well, are you staying Thursday for the draft too?
- [01:52]
Jake Seeley
No, I'm not that cool.
- [01:53]
Joey P. (Host)
Well, I mean I will be checking into a hotel sometime late Wednesday evening, so I don't understand why you're not just. So you're going all the way for the draft and you're leaving the day before the draft. That makes no sense. Pat, have you ever heard a dumber thing in your entire life than that? Like who drives all the way to Pittsburgh? I assume you're driving.
- [02:11]
Jake Seeley
90%.
- [02:11]
Joey P. (Host)
No, you're flying.
- [02:13]
Pat Fitz Morris
Okay.
- [02:14]
Jake Seeley
This is company. This is company.
- [02:16]
Joey P. (Host)
I'm Jake Seeley. I work for the Athletic. They'll fly me all over the country.
- [02:20]
Jake Seeley
Pat.
- [02:20]
Joey P. (Host)
Not sure who goes to Pittsburgh the night before the draft and doesn't stay. That's.
- [02:24]
Jake Seeley
That was my question.
- [02:27]
Pat Fitz Morris
Good. Good question. That's okay. But I've just. I'm more interested in finding out if you guys are going to meet up at Primanti Brothers and have the sandwich with the fries. Nicole, Slaw. Right on it. Primanti's famous sandwich.
- [02:39]
Joey P. (Host)
Sandwich.
- [02:39]
Pat Fitz Morris
I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly, but it's Primanti Brothers.
- [02:42]
Joey P. (Host)
It is. You got it right there. So it's.
- [02:44]
Jake Seeley
I never heard of that. I got the hamburger with the pierogi on it when I was up there.
- [02:48]
Pat Fitz Morris
This one, they dump the. The fries and the slaw go right on the sandwich.
- [02:52]
Joey P. (Host)
Yeah. So the Permanent Brothers is not as appealing to me, but yes, I will be there. Wednesday, Thursday, we've got a flag football tournament on the weekend. Regionals. So we did not win the Ravens regional. We came close, but we fell short. So now we travel to Pittsburgh. And while I'm there, I figured I'll just hang out and cover the NFL draft and take my daughter with me, too. So fun day for her. She gets to see the NFL draft and gets to play a little NFL flag on the weekend. They're pretty cool. All right, so let's get to some of the names on the breakout list here and start with a running back who missed some time in 2025, but in 2026 looks to have perhaps a clear path at the running back position. It's Bucky Irving, who we know a couple years ago burst onto the scene. Right. He finished as RB14 last year, obviously only RB33 Pat in this mix because unfortunately, like I said, injuries kind of derailed the season for him in 2025. So let's talk about Bucky Irving. What you see in the future for him and why you think currently this guy who's ranked is the 18th running back off the board in our early rankings, could be a breakout this season.
- [03:53]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, I don't know if breakout is really the. The best term for this. He. He did sort of have the half season breakout in 2024, but this player is probably going to earn me more pushback than anyone else I talk about on the show because I've seen a lot of people say Bucky Irving is going to be a clear fade for them in 2026 drafts the Buccaneers signed Kenneth Gainwell in free agency, had a good year for the Steelers in 2025, and they also resigned Shawn Tucker, who was getting goal line work last season. Tucker had seven touchdown runs, most of them in short yardage. Then there was the 2025 efficiency dip for Bucky Irving. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry as a rookie in 2024. 3.4 per carry last season, went from 3.93 yards after contact per attempt in 2024. I think that was one of the highest marks in the league, if not the highest, to 2.33 yards after contact per attempt. Percentage of breakaway runs went from 34.9% to 13.4%. But I want to push back on the idea that Bucky Irving's workload is under siege. Like Kenneth Gainwell is a replacement for Rashad White as a backup and third down back. A gainwell averaged 6.7 carries a game last year. That was a career high. The idea that the Buccaneers are somehow disenchanted with Bucky Irving because of the signing of Kenneth Gainwell, like, that's just silly. They were so disenchanted with Bucky last year that he averaged 20.3 carries a game. Like, is it possible he gets poached on goal line carries again? Yes, totally. I don't think anyone was really buying Bucky Irving for the touchdowns in last year's draft. People were buying him because he averaged 18.5 touches and 115 yards from scrimmage over Tampa's final eight regular season games of 2024. Then he averaged even more touches per game in 2025. So drop off in effectiveness. I'm not going to put it all on Tampa's offensive line, but they did go from ranking second in adjusted line yards in 2024 to 22nd last year. To my eye, Bucky Irving was pretty much the same guy last year that he was in 2024. Even though the numbers didn't reflect it, I thought he looked good and maximized his runs. The big games just weren't there. But we always talk about how there just aren't that many workhorses in the NFL anymore at running back. Now we've got a guy who's actually been used as a workhorse back for the last season and a half, and we just want to kick him to the curb. Like, if everyone is fading Bucky Irving this year, then I will happily take the discount on him.
- [06:27]
Joey P. (Host)
Jake, that's a really interesting case for Bucky Irving because I'm sure a Lot of people will read maybe too much into the Kenneth Gainwell acquisition. And then on top of that, you do have the inefficiencies that Pat touched on. Do you think the inefficiencies were more based on his returning from injury than anything else? And what do you make of the Kenneth Gainwell addition to this roster? Are you concerned of that eating into the Bucky Irving workload?
- [06:48]
Jake Seeley
So to the first point, yeah, Pat brought up a lot of numbers that I had down to 48th by the way, in percent of rushes for 10 plus yards, 6.4%. It was stuffed 21% of the time. So all those numbers that Pat said, those are two more that I had on my list as well. Where to add in your second part of your question, I actually do think some of it was injury and some of it was not just his own injury. Pat brought it up. I think a lot of it had to do with the offensive line. The offense as a whole saw a huge downtick as he mentioned. So I think there's a lot of concerns for Bucky Irving, the Kenneth Gainwell one, where the one aspect I do have slight and it's not major concern. I completely agree with Fitz. He's replacing Rashad White. Well, Bucky Irving saw a little bit of a downtick in the passing game. So is that going to be Kenneth Gainwell's job? And then we lose that for Bucky Irving and then we were stuck to the rushing side of it. Here, here's the good thing that I wanted to bring up. We're going to Zach Robinson. What does Zach Robinson do? Wide zone rushing schemes. What does Bucky Irving succeeded wide zone rushing. The downside to that, Kenneth Gainwell also works well in zone rushing as we've seen with the Eagles in last year as well. So I think that's a concern that some people will bring right back up. It'll be like if I. I think it's kind of like your confirmation bias here. If you're concerned about Kenneth Gainwell, I don't think Fitz or I are going to be able to talk you off of it. Like you're concerned about him. Everything we bring up are probably gonna be a little the same argument you can make for Gainwell. I'm more with Fitz on this. I'm going to be back in a Bucky irving as an RB2, not an RB1 next year. But I think that a lot of people are so far off of him that I could see him falling down to low end RB2. And in that case I'm going to be with Fitz and having a lot of shares of him next year.
- [08:23]
Joey P. (Host)
All right, let's get to number nine on the list here. And it's quarterback Malik Willis, now with the Miami Dolphins. He had a great game in week 17 where he dropped 31 1/2 fantasy points QB3 against the Ravens. And it seemed impressive in theory until we look back at the season the Ravens had. And maybe it's not quite as impressive as we thought it might be. However, a lot of teams were in the Malik Willis sweepstakes. And Pat, you feel like that a lot of fantasy teams in Super Flex should be in that sweepstakes as well. Do you even believe potentially that Malik Willis could be a guy that in deeper leagues you even want in single quarterback because of what rushing upside he might hold in this Miami Dolphin offense?
- [09:03]
Pat Fitz Morris
I do, Joe, and I wonder if I think Malik Willis was going to be trendy in 1 QB drafts before the Jalen Waddle trade. Now I think people are going to be scared off. So in six career starts, Malik Willis has averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game and has run for four touchdowns. So he's averaged about 8.5 fantasy points per game just with his legs. And Malik Willis seems to have made considerable strides as a passer. Like when Jordan Love injured his knee in the Packers 2024 season opener. That game in Brazil against the Eagles, Willis started weeks two and three, the game plans admittedly very run heavy from Matt LaFleur. But Willis completed 2533 throws in those two games. 324 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions. Also ran for 114 yards and a touchdown in those two games, both of which the packers won. And then last year, when Love sustained a concussion Midway through the second quarter the Packers Week 16 game against the Bears, Willis came in nine of 11 for 121 yards and a touchdown and two and a half quarters. Next week against the Ravens, Willis started in place of love. 18 of 21, 288 yards, one touchdown. In those two games, he completed 84.4% of his passes and averaged 12.8 yards per attempt. Now, I can't guarantee Willis is going to be a serviceable passer this season. Like the sample size in Green Bay. Encouraging, but also too small for us to draw sweeping conclusions. And obviously the Jalen Waddle trade did leave the Dolphins with just bare cupboards at wide receiver. But every season, even the least prolific passing offenses in the league usually generate about 3,000 passing yards. So even if we put Willis down for about 2,800 passing yards, 17 touchdowns. If he averages eight and a half running points a game, like he's going to be a low end QB1 or very close to it. So yeah, I think even in one QB leagues, Joe, there's some viability here.
- [11:04]
Joey P. (Host)
Jake, do you think that there's some overreaction in the market to the Jalen Waddle trade affecting Malik Willis's value? Because if you look at the numbers, you know, in 2025, Jalen Waddle was wide receiver 23. Before that wide receiver 46. Before that wide receiver 34. So last three years it's not like he finished as a wide receiver one where he had some impact on the offense. He only had one 1,000 yard receiving season and only had one year where he had six touchdowns. That was the high. So do you think if anything to Pat's point that maybe all of a sudden Malik Willis went from being overhyped to maybe a little underappreciated based on the circumstances. And we still have the draft coming up too. It's not like they can't add some more wide receiver help in the draft.
- [11:43]
Jake Seeley
No. And that's actually what I was going to bring up. You know, with the two first round picks, do they go in at 11 or they wait and see what there's 30. I think that could change things a little bit because obviously you're talking about at 11. They're probably taking one of the big three. Three at 30 you're into that second tier. You know how much I like Concepcion, but if he's still there, I would feel a little bit better about the other tier, two wide receivers. But again, I don't think it's an overreaction depending on what you're looking at. Like is this a downtick? Yeah. Jaylen Waddle. I don't love Jaylen Waddle but when healthy, because that's why it's, it's always the nagging soft tissues. But when 100% healthy, that's a major weapon to take away. And now you're down to two. Two Atwell and Jalen Tolbert is your one and two and hoping to get something out of Malik Washington and and those mishmash of tight ends that they got going on over there. So you know, everything Pat said is right. I just think that for us in fantasy the real value is that when he came out of college I brought this up. I said he has Jalen hurts rushing upside. Probably not with the double digit touchdowns, but that 6, 700 yards can he get half those touchdowns. Five, six, seven touchdowns. Absolutely. So in fantasy, we already care. The risk is that it goes as bad as Justin Fields. The middle ground is. Maybe it's a Daniel Jones type of situation. And part of it has to be, yeah, the weapons do matter. We would feel 100 times better if they at least take one at 11 or 30 or in the first round in general as a wide receiver. But for Pat's point, yeah, we take the risk. But at the same time, in a single quarterback league, this is one of those situations where you take the risk. And if we're not seeing it in the first two or three games, it's okay to move on. Like, we don't have to sit out there and play the Justin Fields game where it's like, oh, well, you know, we saw it for one out of five games. Let's keep holding on hope here. We'll just get our answer on what this looks like. The good news is that maybe Slowik has learned enough and he does use a lot of pre snap motion, which we know in fantasy for wide receivers and their quarterback efficiency. That pre snap motion is a big thumbs up. I actually like the situation in that aspect a little better than people might think because McDaniel left good points all
- [13:42]
Joey P. (Host)
the way around there. And I actually think the Dolphins, to me, have the most to lose potentially in this draft. I think they have the most pressure on them. More so than the jets, who have a lot of picks too. I do, because I think with the Dolphins, look, you haven't won a playoff game since the year 2000, right? It's a long time. That's a. There's a generation of Dolphin fans that have never seen them win a playoff game now. And that's kind of absurd. And I think.
- [14:03]
Jake Seeley
No, I laugh because when you said
- [14:04]
Joey P. (Host)
that, I think of the gif where
- [14:06]
Jake Seeley
the guy's like faking that he's going to jump over, like drink the Clorox or jump over the. Oh yeah, those are Dolphins fans.
- [14:12]
Joey P. (Host)
Absolutely, the Dolphins fans. And you know, we had a big discussion on the tailgate about who, you know, which organization needed to crush this draft more than any other. And my pick was the Dolphins. And Deborah and I, you know, went back and forth about that. And actually Debra and I are also doing a great show too on our Twitch that before the NFL draft next week. We've got one more left. Go to twitch.com fantasypros twitch. Excuse me, Twitch TV fantasy pros. That's the link. Twitch TV fantasypros We do a full Breakdown of the film room where we pick a bunch of prospects and we watch about half a dozen guys and we talk about what we like about them, what we don't. So it's a great way to get kind of that next level stuff. And DBRO's gone through all the scouting stuff over the last couple years and all the classes and all the things and stuff what to work for. And it really. He's done a great job on there and I like to go support him as well. So go check that out on our Twitch again. Twitch TV fantasy pros for the film room. The next one is going to be on the 21st at 2pm Eastern time. That's Tuesday, April 21, 2pm Eastern, so check that out too. The last two are really great shows. All right, let's get to the next guy on Fitzy's list here for the breakouts of 2026. And it's Alec Pierce. And Pierce certainly, I would say maybe the darling of the off season here as far as wide receivers goes. There's a lot of talk about A.J. brown getting traded. That was. That was the other wide receiver who got a lot of talk. But man, Alec Pierce. Every fantasy nerd I know Fitzy has been talking about Alec Pierce and Alec Pierce. And guess what? The Colts maintained and retained Alec Pierce. So what does that mean for him now with Michael Pittman gone? Alec Pierce kind of in that pole position going forward.
- [15:43]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, well, he's Mr. Moneybags now. Wound up re signing with his own team. Four years, 114 million, 84 million guaranteed. I wasn't really excited about him going back to the Colts until they traded away Michael Pittman a day or two later. Then I got excited. So now Pierce has room for target growth. He averaged 5.6 targets a game last year. That number is going to come up. I think we're going to see Pierce run a more complete route tree and not just be a vertical threat like last year's average depth of target was 18.9 yards. He's led the league in yards per catch the last two years, 22.3 yards per catch in 20, 24, 21.3 last year. So over 21 both years we're still going to get the big plays from a guy who's 6 foot 3 and runs like a gazelle. But now I think we're going to get some games where Pierce has five, six, seven or more catches. So far, he's played 64 career games and has had five or more catches in only six of those 64 games. So Colts aren't going to be able to bring in much in the way of target competition. They don't have a first round pick because of the Sauce Gardner trade. And while they are probably going to add some sort of receiver, it's not going to be someone who will threaten Alec Pierce's target share. And look, they're paying him like a guy who's going to get a lot of targets.
- [17:03]
Joey P. (Host)
I think he will this year despite all that. Jake, you look and he's still ranked as the 35th wide receiver so there's possibility for a lot more volume. But right now in the early rank he's only wide receiver 35. He is sandwiched between Chris Godwin at 34 and Brian Thomas Jr. At 36. Would you take Pierce easily over both those guys, Jake?
- [17:23]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, so I have Pierce at 27 and I have him in a tier
- [17:27]
Joey P. (Host)
but like so I guess the answer is yes.
- [17:29]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, I, I, I kind of undercut that. Yeah, like I threw it. I was like yeah, I have a 20 cent. There you go.
- [17:35]
Joey P. (Host)
Well yeah, maybe difference. That's 10 times it happened happened in
- [17:39]
Jake Seeley
my brain and it didn't happen with my mouth. Well that's weird. Anyway. Yeah, like you if you want to move them up a few more spots too because I have Christian Watson in this group. If you want to make an argument versus Christian Watson in a similar situation and role and what we hope to as Fitz said, I mean I initially saw Pierce and I'm like hey, maybe this is the first one I don't agree with on fits. And and then I'm like, you know what though? Because even if the depth of target comes back because he is a more complete route tree and even do I, I think that Josh Downs is going to be a beneficiary of no Michael Pittman. Michael Pittman, even with his injury still kind of keeping him out of some plays last year and some game time I still had over 20% of the target share. So you knock him out and you're down to Warren Downs and Pierce. And as Fitz just said two things. We're following the money and we're following the fact that the target share is going to go up and they're not bringing anybody else of real significance. The only concern I have with this entire thing and why I thought I might be a little concerned to begin with is one Daniel Jones, how healthy is he? If you told me Daniel Jones for 17 games, as much as I don't love Daniel Jones, I'd be thumbs up like cool. Like you can even argue Pierce higher. The concern I have is what if it's not Daniel Jones? Because as Anthony Richards still on this team and Richardson as we've seen before, like he can throw it deep. We know that. But what if it's Riley Leonard? Because the funny thing is I said in that draft last year Will Howard is discount Daniel Jones and then I said that Riley Leonard is Will Howard with a lesser arm. So to kind of give you the idea of why I'm bringing that up as a concern is that I actually think if they had to go to Riley Leonard that would be bad news for Alec Pierce, mostly because of the arm. I don't think we're going to see the same production on a per target basis.
- [19:15]
Joey P. (Host)
There's a lot of production last year in a short span for number 7 on Fitzs List and it's a ronde Gadsden. He had two games there where he finishes tight end one and tight end four in week seven and eight against the Colts, Colts and the Minnesota Vikings. These both games of them were at home. He had 12 catches in those two total games, over 200 yards and two touchdowns. And then Fitzy after that. It was pretty pedestrian. So I understand we all know that the Chargers had some challenges last year with some health, especially in the offensive line. We have a new offensive coordinator coming in, Mike McDaniel, so certainly we know he can make a tight end very special if he chooses to. Is a ronde Gads and going to be that special piece in this offense that maybe people don't see coming quite as much as they should. Because when you look at the early rankings right now Gadsden's kind of floating in that range of oh, he's probably a tight end one, but nobody's really excited about it. At number nine overall.
- [20:09]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, he's tight end nine and that's where he is. For me I think this is mostly about being willing to wait a little bit at tight end if if you don't get the the top prizes. Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Colston, Loveland Gadsden, perfectly good fallback option a little bit later in the draft. So you frame this so well. Joe as a rookie, 49 catches, 664 yards, three TDs, good season, tight end 15 and PPR scoring. But over that four game stretch, it was really four games. From week six to week nine, Gadsden averaged six catches and 94.3 yards per game. He was tight end one over that stretch, 17.9 PPR points per game and here's the thing, that was a really good offensive stretch for the Chargers overall. In those four games where Gadsden was going bonkers, the Chargers averaged 29.3 points. And it wasn't all against pushover defenses. They hung 37 points on the Vikings, you know, the, the Brian Flores defense. Gadsden had five touch or five catches for 77 yards and a touchdown in that game. And with the Chargers offense faring well when Gadsden fared well, I think they're going to endeavor to make him a more regular contributor in this offense. And now the Chargers have an offensive coordinator coming in, Mike McDaniel who two seasons ago milked an 88 catch, 884 yard, eight touchdown season out of John who Smith in Miami. So yes, I'm excited about Gadsden, Jake.
- [21:39]
Joey P. (Host)
I think when you look at Gadsden, you can understand, you know, between, you know, some of the success that 80 year old Darren Waller had with Mike McDaniel and then of course Johnny Smith, as Fitzy pointed out. I mean Gadson kind of fits the mold of that style of play. Do you think that there is enough to go around and what this offense is going to be? I'm sure we all think Marian Hampton's gonna be a big breakout guy. We've all talked about him a lot. I know this off season, but can Gadson kind of piggyback there and a little bit kind of flying under the radar where everybody's talking about Hampton but not so much about guys like Gadson on this squad.
- [22:12]
Jake Seeley
The interesting thing here is that what do we know about Mike McDaniel is that he wants you to be able to do everything, whether you're the tight end, the wide receiver, whatever it might be. And that includes moving and moving across the line because the pre snap motion as we saw time and time and time and time again, but also that includes putting you in positions that you might not normally play. What did Gadsden start as? Oh, by the way, a wide receiver who's in converted wide receiver to a tight end. So he knows how to do that. So my biggest concern on this roster is actually if we're looking at it right now, is Quinton Johnston, because we know Quentin Johnson struggling to do all that. Run a complete route tree. What if, and I just throw the scenario out there, what if we're talking next year it's McConkey, Harris, the backfield and Gadsden and all of a sudden Quentin Johnson is just left to the sidelines and it wouldn't be a Surprise. Now, if Quentin Johnson is still involved and he gets more out of him, cool, we'd be excited about that as well. But I think Gadson, as Fitz said with Johnnu, is just the fact that like, if it was more of a, you know, like a Jake Ferguson type who's just like, you know, a good all around and quality blocker, I'd be like, yeah, probably not going to be as a biggest threat because we've seen that before with McDaniel too. Like the Kasekis of the world, like he doesn't get a ton out of them. There's flashes here and there, but that's more because of a game matchup situation. I think Gadson fits what Mike McDaniel wants to do with his receiving options. So I'm in on this one as well. Like we're eventually going to disagree. It's coming, but unfortunately, so far I'm fully on board with Fitz's list and for the entertainment factor.
- [23:39]
Joey P. (Host)
Well, look, I'm sure we'll find some more entertaining factors to disagree on later on, but good practice is good practice and I think when we're talking about, you know, this specific year with the tight ends, there's a lot of tight ends at the top, the first five or six that people are very excited about for very good reason. But if you miss out on that run, there's still guys like Gadsden out there that I think have unique upside at a much better cost. And he's not the only tight end tease that we're going to talk about.50's list today, the next guy we're going to talk about though, I bet a lot of people watching and listening stole this from me.
- [24:11]
Jake Seeley
I'm so excited like that. I told you we're not going to disagree yet.
- [24:14]
Joey P. (Host)
Well, number six on the list. If you go back and pull up the stats here from week nine on, which is when this player had the buy, week eight came back, they were wide receiver, 11 and half point PPR. I bet you didn't know that about one Parker Washington. So Fitzy, let's walk us through why Parker Washington can carry over that second half momentum from 2025 into the 2026 season.
- [24:38]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, and I was kind of stodgy about buying into Parker Washington last year.
- [24:43]
Joey P. (Host)
I think a lot of people were, yeah, there was a lot of those conversations like, let's not buy into this. Let's not make too much of this week or that week of this. And then by the time you look up at the end, you missed out on wide receiver 11 in the second half season.
- [24:55]
Pat Fitz Morris
It was really a turbo finish for him Joe. So like the total numbers 58, 847 yards, five touchdowns in 16 games, eh? But then you throw in that he had a great playoff game, seven catches, 107 yards and a touchdown and the Jaguars lost to the Bills. And over his last four games of the season, including that playoff game, he averaged 10.3 targets, 6.5 catches, 113.5 yards per game and he had three touchdowns in those four games. So Trevor Lawrence loves his slot guys and his tight ends in Jacksonville. Christian Kirk had an 84 catch, 1100 yard, 8 touchdown season in 2022. Evan Angam, 114 catches, 963 yards in 2023. Kirk and Ingram both had other good seasons with Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. The only outside receiver to have a thousand yard season with Trevor Lawrence while playing primarily outside Calvin Ridley, 76 catches, 1016 yards in 2023. But he wasn't the Jaguars target and reception leader that year. It was the Evan Ingram season where he had 114 grabs. And I don't know if we can really count Brian Thomas a couple years ago, I know people are shouting at their screens right now about this, but Trevor Lawrence played 10 games in 2024, effectively nine games. And with Lawrence in quarter at quarterback first nine games of that season, Thomas averaged 5.9 targets, 3.9 catches, 66.1 yards per game. From Week 10 on when it was Mac Jones at quarterback for all but 10 pass attempts in one partial game for Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr. Averaged 10 targets, 6.5 catches, 85.9 yards per game. So much higher production with Mac Jones, so. Plus the slot receiver role has generally been pretty valuable in Liam Cohen's offenses. Saw Chris Godwin get off to that great start a couple of years ago when Cohen was the OC in Tampa before Godwin got hurt. I don't want the outside receivers in a Trevor Lawrence Liam Cohen offense for fantasy. I want Lawrence's slot guy, maybe his tight end. And last season Parker Washington was in the slot for about 40% of his snapshot. Now the Jaguars also have Jacoby Myers who's done a lot of slot work in his career, but when Parker Washington was going nuts down the stretch, it was predominantly him in the slot, Myers at flanker. So the one thing above all else that I am going to be paying attention to in the 2026 preseason, who lines up in the slot for the small number of snaps that Trevor Lawrence plays, if it's Mostly Parker Washington. I am going to be all in on Parker Washington and drafts. It's kind of a 5050 mix of Washington and Myers. Like I'll be a little more hesitant if it's mostly Myers in the slot then I'll be out on Washington quite honestly. But I do think it's going to be Washington mostly as the slot guy, the main slot guy for the Jags and if so he could be in for a really big season.
- [27:55]
Joey P. (Host)
One of the things I I love about working with Fitzy is it's always like you get to up your vocab a little bit. Stodgy is not a word that you hear very often. So I looked it up while Fitzy was going on giving some great stats about Parker Washington and the definition is quite good actually reminds me of you a little bit silly things that are dull, boring, old fashioned and excessively formal. But it also describes heavy, dense or hard to digest foods such as a thick pudding. Jake, I've often referred to you as a thick pudding sometimes are you so thick that you can't love Parker Washington or do you see Parker Washington with Fitzy does too. And now Travis Hunter, another guy out of the equation. One more guy not to worry about catching footballs in Jacksonville. Is Parker Washington's 2025 for real?
- [28:39]
Jake Seeley
Let's how about the fact that I'm so thick that I have Parker Washington way above Brian Thomas and that pains my soul and as I said is that the fact that Fitz stole my Parker Washington from me. Like I, I just love it.
- [28:52]
Joey P. (Host)
Like I told this is probably on your ranking because he's wide receiver. He's a wide receiver 45 in the consensus. Okay. Number 45 overall. So you've got him as a three already locked in. That's good to know.
- [29:01]
Jake Seeley
And Brian Thomas is a wide receiver four for me and that might be too high. And that like I said this pains me. I want Brian Thomas on a new team. Get them away from here. And let me be clear, I want to go back. I'm surprised you didn't bring this up to bring up the point as you said as we were we everybody was hesitant to buy in. You and I were doing a waiver show and you thought I met Parker Washington on Monday and I was like nah, I don't know if I really like give me another week or whatever. And so admittedly I didn't want to believe out of the gate because it was Brian Thomas. But the thing I go back to what Fitz said is like let's just take all the numbers, let's throw them to the side for a second. We knew the Mac Jones numbers. We knew how much better Brian Thomas was with Mac Jones. We just assumed, hey, it's Trevor Lawrence, he can at least do what Mac Jones did. But here's what Trevor Lawrence does. It's not just the Liam Cohen offense, as Fitz brought up, is that Trevor Lawrence looks to get the ball out quickly. You go back to Clemson, same thing. He looks to the middle of the field, the slot options, gets it when he's comfortable. He's making the decision quick. The problem is, is when Parker, Washington and then the arrival of Jacoby Myers came around. You know this because you and I talked about it last year. Brian Thomas's adot went up almost 50%. He was seeing targets 15, 20 yards down the field when he got them. He didn't even get as many targets because Trevor Lawrence is already throwing a completion to somebody else at that point. And then when he chucks him downfield, when you're getting 15, 20 yard targets, we know those are much less likely to be caught than when you're in the 5 to 15 range. So it's just a numerous amount of factors that I want Brian Thomas somewhere else. Throw him on another team where he can go back to being Brian Thomas with an offense and a quarterback who would just use him more. This is just really an unfortunate scenario where he was on a team where the changes for the head coach, the style and the quarterback being healthy all just threw his ability kind of off to the side for now.
- [30:50]
Joey P. (Host)
All right, we're officially in the top five here and some great names 50's got for you. Before we get to those names, shout out to the sponsor of our show today. And that's Hard Rock Bet. Florida Sportsbook Baseball is back. It's in full swing. And Hard Rock Bet makes it easy to bet on America's pastime, just like Pete Rose would have did, just to get a few taps right there and boom, you're in the action right now. And of course you can watch all the stuff from our MLB channel, Fantasy Pros mlb. In case you didn't know where we do our daily bets of the day. Plus we got amazing baseball talk. So subscribe to that channel and download the Hard Rock Bet apple and take that knowledge and go make some money. Because right now, if you haven't already tried it, you could sign up today, double your winnings on your first 10 bets, maximum of $50. That's right, you could double your winnings on your first 10 bets. So if you would want a hundred bucks, double that. Now it's 200. See, that's how doubling works. You download the Hard Rock Bet app today and get the party started only at Hard Rock Bet. Get off the bench. Go play on Hard Rock. Payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in other states. Must be 21 plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concern about gambling in Florida, call 1-833-PLAY-WISE in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia picture this.
- [32:14]
Brooks Running Advertiser
A serene run where you feel like you can go forever. There's soft cushion in every step. Your energy never runs out and you reach a form of flow state. That's what it feels like to run in The Brooks Glycerin Max 2, the newest addition to the Glycerin series featuring max softness, Max energy, max run with dual cell DNA tuned cushion to optimize soft landings and powerful toe offs for a seamlessly tuned experience. Plus the Glide roll rocker helps provide a more fluid step through for an optimal and effortless heel to toe transition. Now you can truly tune out and max your run. Go on a run that never runs out in the new Brooks Glycerin Max 2. Shop the Glycerin Max 2@brooksrunning.com let's run there.
- [32:58]
Daniel Cormier
This is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier Show. This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc. All UFC fighters know power doesn't wait in the octagon or outside of it. You either make the move or you miss the moment. That's why you need a network that's as powerful as you are. With Total Wireless, you get unlimited 5G data keeping you in on all the action from the walkouts to the knockouts. You'll never miss a moment. That's coverage that you can count on for every single round. So when the moment happens, you're not catching up. You're already there. Now that that's a total power move. In the ufc, power isn't given, it's taken. So make your total power move today. Visit totalwireless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless Store 5G access requires a 5G capable device in a 5G service area. Monthly rates on the Total Base 5G Unlimited plan for new subscribers applies only to the monthly rate for your plan. Additional terms apply. See website for details.
- [33:53]
Joey P. (Host)
All right, let's get to number five here. And it's a Patriot, which warms my soul. But Pat, you're gonna have to convince me of this one because I have massive concerns about Ramandre Stevenson still eating into such a workload that Travion Henderson, your guy and my guy, can't get that game to the next level for fantasy. So please tell me I'm wrong here, Fitzy. Show me why.
- [34:16]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yes, Fitz, you cannot be excited about Travion Henderson. He's just Ramon Ray Stevenson's backup. You saw how that worked in the playoffs. Yes, Joe, everything is completely static in the NFL. Situations are always unchanged year to year. And since Ramondre Stevenson was New England's running back of choice in the playoffs, we should totally forget that three game stretch last year from week nine to week 11 when Travion Henderson averaged 110 scrimmage yards per game and had a pair of two touchdown games. And we should forget about that week 15 game against the Bills when Ramandre Stevenson was playing in Trayvon Henderson still had 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
- [34:54]
Joey P. (Host)
I'm still trying to forget the super bowl. All the other games I want to
- [34:57]
Pat Fitz Morris
kind of remember maybe a little more. Trayvon Henderson would have done them some
- [35:00]
Joey P. (Host)
good, Joe, but I ain't gonna argue that. I can argue that couldn't hurt.
- [35:06]
Pat Fitz Morris
I mean, bottom line for me on Travion is that he gave us several weeks of high end running back one production last season. A lot of fantasy managers are going to turn up their noses at Henderson in drafts this year because he mostly sat behind Stevenson in the playoffs. Just remember what Henderson did when he got his chance last year and realized that it's pretty silly to think he won't get other chances in 2026.
- [35:31]
Joey P. (Host)
All right, so Henderson for you, Jake Seely, are you concerned with the usage and the way it's at least presenting to be similar year over year? You know, Fitzy might have dropped a little bit of sarcasm there about the static thing in the NFL, but I do know this Mike Variable is going to be a defensive minded coach. They're going to grind games when they can, and part of that means more of a Ramandre Stevens and style. Do you think that changes though when you need a little bit more breakout ability from a guy like Travion Henderson to kind of get the offense humming along a little bit better also?
- [36:05]
Jake Seeley
And Fitz can jump in anytime he wants or wait till the end. But part of my question would be what does breakout mean? Like how far are we going to go? Because I think that's going to depend whether or not I'm in on Travion Henderson. Because going from week 13 through the super bowl, which matters because that usage was there and the 13 was Stevenson's second game back from that injury, it was a 51% 42% running back touch split 50, 40 for all intents and purposes. The bigger concern I have here is that Henderson only saw 6% about of the team target percentage Stevenson was up at almost 12%. The yards per touch were vastly in favor of Stevenson. The yards per reception vastly in favor of Stevenson. The percentage of plays for 10 plus rushing yards and 20 plus yards overall, vastly for Henderson. So here's the other good side for Henderson. Nine goal to go rush attempts versus only two for Stevenson. So I'm saying there's ways to like both of them and that's where I'm at. I like both. I have them both as RB2s, which actually puts Henderson very close to his ranking as of right now, but vastly overranks Stevenson. And everybody's like why is Stevenson. Because they can both be RB2s. The biggest takeaway I have as today is I'm okay if they're RB2s. If you want to push for either being higher and you know I'm with you guys. You know how much I love Henderson. I said he was like those little hot wheel cars that you pulled back back in the day and just like launched them out of the launcher is that's the excitement we have. And he can be an RB1. If Stevenson gets hurt, he can be an RB1. If Henderson gets hurt, Stevenson can be an RB1. I think we have to understand that if we know we are getting 17 games from both, it's going to be like this. It's going to be up and down. It's going to be the best of Charbonnet and Walker from two years ago where we got that up and down and up and down. One week one of them got 20, one of them got five. The next week they both got 15 points. So you just have to understand that's what you're buying into with the upside of potentially being an RB one if either gets hurt. But I want them as mid to low RB2s. I think going higher is where I would pull back on Henderson. If you have him as a high
- [38:01]
Joey P. (Host)
in RB2 and that's where he is, he's ranked right now currently as the 20th RB overall, which I think feels right. I think it's baking in the downside that you're talking about Jake, but also the upside that Fitz, he's talking about the explosives.
- [38:13]
Jake Seeley
Do you have them higher fits or would you push them higher than that? Because that's where we would finally disagree a bit. Little bit, yeah.
- [38:19]
Pat Fitz Morris
I mean like I'm a tick higher. I think I'm RB19, so. And your, your take is totally, literally
- [38:25]
Joey P. (Host)
one tick for the record.
- [38:27]
Pat Fitz Morris
And let the record show.
- [38:29]
Joey P. (Host)
Hold on, where's my gavel? I haven't gotten the gavel out in a long time. Let the record show it is one single tick. All right, Fitzy, go ahead.
- [38:36]
Pat Fitz Morris
My, my sarcasm was probably unwarranted because Henderson is ranked ahead of Stevenson in ecr and I kind of expect that the ADP is going to work out that way too because people sort of recognize what the upside is with Henderson. Like they're not oblivious to what he did when he got that chance. But like we thought that was going to be. That was it. He had arrived after that three game breakout when Stevenson was out. I don't think anyone expected the sort of pivots fully back to Stevenson that we saw from the Patriots, but part of it was that Henderson was billed as such a good pass blocker coming out of college. Not really the case. Stevenson was like way better in that department last year and I think that's what they cared about, not getting Drake may killed in their stretch run. So Henderson had shown in college that he could be adept in that area. Maybe another NFL training camp, more tutoring. It's going to help him and leave the Patriots coaching staff a little more confident that they can put him on the field and not get their franchise QB put in the hospital.
- [39:34]
Joey P. (Host)
Yeah, and, and look, he's younger running back than Stevenson too. You know that that does factor into its long season. So, you know, I think there's a lot of reason to invest and hope for the best there with Stevenson. But you also have to understand he's to the guy's point, he's not an RB one. Okay. You don't draft him like an RB one. That would be crazy to think about. So he's definitely mid level RB2, but you want to make sure that, you know, if. Yeah, heck, if you can get him as a flex rb, that's great. I think that's where you'd love to have him in an ideal world, but that's not always the case in a lot of these deeper leagues. Speaking of guys in the top 20, how about a guy in the top 20 of wide receivers and it's Luther Bird. And number four four on Fitzy's list today, Luther Burden. Also a guy who's gotten a ton of off season helium. So Fitzy, why is everybody so excited about Luther Burden and why is Fitzy think he can be a breakout in 2026?
- [40:19]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, 2.48 yards per outrun as a rookie. Joe Wildly impressive number after sort of a slow rollout for Luther Burden last year. He was playing behind Alamine Zacchaeus for the first few months of the season. Didn't see more than four targets in a game until Week 11. Or maybe it was more than five targets. Didn't have a game in which he played more than 50% of the Bears offensive snaps until week 12. But from week 12 through the end of the regular season, Burden averaged 4.7 catches, 67.2 receiving yards a game. That's an 80 catch, 1100 yard pace and that was with D.J. moore around. Moore now in Buffalo. So Luther Burton just moves differently. Like this guy's feet are so quick. He is going to be such a tough cover for cornerbacks and we saw that late last year when he came on. Bears QB Caleb Williams started to get a better handle in Ben Johnson's offense late last year and you know, the Luther Burden bandwagon is already annoyingly overcrowded. He's not going to be cheap in drafts. No, I do feel like the enthusiasm is warranted because what we saw from him late last year is pretty exciting.
- [41:31]
Joey P. (Host)
Celie, what's your enthusiasm level when it comes to Luther Burton?
- [41:35]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, so apparently I hate him because I'm a spot behind on consensus on this one. How many comes?
- [41:40]
Joey P. (Host)
That's the question.
- [41:42]
Jake Seeley
One tick. One tick. Just one whole tick and one whole tick.
- [41:45]
Joey P. (Host)
Don't make me put my judge wig back on. But the thing is it's a little irritating.
- [41:50]
Jake Seeley
I think it's more what Fitz said is that it's the bandwagon because going back to last year and the draft, normally I smash up two players but for him I smashed up three because I said if you took Garrett Wilson, Julian Edelman and Randall Cobb and mixed them all together and you get Julian Cobson and I think that was like my joke about it. But that's the upside. He has the concern underlying that. But no, this is where I'm going to go.
- [42:13]
Joey P. (Host)
This is why I just, I'm just thinking about the stodgy thick pudding and how There you are with that, with that three combination names.
- [42:22]
Jake Seeley
I guess so many people like, like pudding can be good late at night, nice little treat. Especially if you peel off that and then you put on your face like on the office. So in any case, going back to this, I think that that Randall Cobb back when he was a fringe wide receiver, one with the packers in his best days, also came alongside where my slight concern, like I love Luther Burton, let me make that clear. And everybody thought like there was not everybody. There was a lot of people that thought Luther Burden was being overrated at coming out of college and for various factors. But whatever it might be is that it's the touchdowns, it's the playing more of a 1B to a 1A. And I'm not completely out on a Dunes A yet. I still really like a Dunes A and I think a Dunes A to go back to those days of the packers could be like a Devonte Adams or Randall Cobb type of situation where they're both great. But I still think a Dunes A has the slightly higher ceiling because of the higher touchdown upside, the higher red zone and end zone touchdown, which also comes down to a player. We'll pause on that one because I have some numbers for that. And something that I really love about this, I just feel like all three of these options now that there's no DJ Moore are going to be great. We could hopefully get Caleb Williams to be the first Bears quarterback to ever throw for 4,000 yards. Still didn't even do it last year. And get 4,000 plus yards, 30 plus touchdowns and all three will be great. It's just I think what fits his biggest point there, maybe not his, but my biggest point from what he just said is this is going to be, I feel like one of the bigger players that the bandwagon gets so overblown that he's going to get overdrafted because everybody wants him and everybody's going to be like, well I got to get him because I know everybody else is about to take them. And then you lose all potential return on your value.
- [44:01]
Pat Fitz Morris
Jake, how big is the, how big is the gap between Odun saying Burden in your rankings?
- [44:07]
Joey P. (Host)
It's a good question.
- [44:08]
Jake Seeley
Three.
- [44:09]
Pat Fitz Morris
Three. Okay.
- [44:10]
Joey P. (Host)
Very close.
- [44:10]
Pat Fitz Morris
So I've got, I've got Burden one spot higher. My only.
- [44:14]
Jake Seeley
You're so. You're tighter than I am. So there you go.
- [44:16]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, you're probably right about Odunze. The only thing with odunze, I'm like 95% sure he's good, but I'm not 100% sure he's actually good.
- [44:25]
Jake Seeley
Yeah. Same page.
- [44:26]
Joey P. (Host)
You know what? To that point though, Fitzy, I mean, Luther Burton has had maturity issues not just in college, but also in the NFL level. There's a lot of stuff last year in camp, if you recall him getting kind of punished for not doing the right thing or being at the right meeting at the right time and all that's like. There's a lot of that stuff floating around. So you might. There's a 5% of me when I look at Luther Burton, I'm like, is he a serious football player? I know he's a talented one, but I'm like 95 there that he's serious. Whereas with a dunes a that like the 5% is just whether or not like for me, he can just stay healthy and play. He's a smart kid, good worker, all that stuff. But again, Luther Burdens a special talent. But we've seen time and time again these special talents. Sometimes they can't let some of those maturity issues get in the way of what they could be. And oftentimes they do, which is have
- [45:10]
Jake Seeley
a full career like OBJ and then row it in on a boat. There you go.
- [45:13]
Joey P. (Host)
Hey, man, Giants haven't won a playoff game since, right?
- [45:16]
Pat Fitz Morris
I've got a bunch of Missouri, University of Missouri friends. So I've sort of been forced to do my homework on burden by these people. And I'm pretty convinced he's like not a bad kid. Like, I think he's.
- [45:29]
Joey P. (Host)
Oh, I'm not saying a bad kid. Immature. And I think, you know that that's the thing that comes up now, Fitzy, we're in the top three. And I gotta say this one, you'd have to sell me a little bit because I have gone down this well many a fantasy season only to drown in the bottom of it in despair because Christian Watson always let me down. Now, I understand last year from week nine on, he was wide receiver, 16 and half point PPR. I get it. But this is another guy that's never healthy. This is a guy that has teased us with the big playability, what he's got. And Jordan Love, also another guy that's teased some great stretches but has also dealt with some injuries and some issues on his own. So how do we get Christian Watson to be a full breakout for a full season? Fitzy, sell me. Because I want to believe. I've just been hurt so many times, Joe.
- [46:17]
Pat Fitz Morris
It's like trying to sell you in a Faberge egg. Like, I can promise it's Going to look great above your fireplace. I can't promise that you're not going to drop it and it's going to shatter into a million pieces. Because obviously like that's the thing everyone worries about with Christian Watson. He has missed 20 games in four years. He's had a torn ACL. The injury fears are going to hold his ECR down. But man, if this dude can stay healthy for a full season, like he could be a wide receiver one, maybe even a high end wide receiver one like Christian Watson is that good. Averaged 17.5 yards per catch last year, 11.1 yards per target, 2.28 yards per route run. All terrific numbers and for his career, also really good numbers. 10 yards per target, 2.06 yards per outrun. 6 foot 4, 208 pounds, 436 speed. And that speed shows up on the field like this guy is a freak athletes. He's paired with a high quality quarterback in Jordan Love and he's really poised for a big role in 2026. Like I'm not going to sell you on the idea that Don Tavian Wicks was some sort of star, but the packers right now have three credible wide receivers. It's Watson. It's Matthew golden who did very little as a rookie last season, so I'm not even sure we can count him in the credible category. And then Jaden Reed at wide receiver. That's basically it. And Tucker Kraft, yes, very high quality tight end. But Watson is the undisputed king of the Green Bay receivers right now. And if he can stay healthy, target uptick coming. Like I, I think he could be a 1300. He could be the George Pickens of 2026 stays healthy.
- [47:58]
Joey P. (Host)
There you go. Clip that for social. That's the one that's going to run around. I can feel the YouTube comments right now. Jake Seeley, Christian Watson, wide receiver, 27 in the early ranks. You buying that?
- [48:09]
Jake Seeley
I'm buying where he is mostly because it comes down to health. I mean you mentioned we've been burned because of hell. This is the comparison I was making earlier to Alec Pierce is that no, Don, Tavian Wicks wasn't a massive threat. I think that trade had more to do with the fact that they still believe Matthew golden can be something. But we're seeing at least through one year as rookie season. The downside of Matthew golden was like a Nelson Aguilar type. So that's just, you know, what we might see is for his entire career and he might be a non factor. Jaden Reed has to Stay healthy too. But if you have Jayden Reed and Watson both healthy, Those are your one and twos and those are both potential top 25 wide receivers if they stay healthy for the entire year. A big part of it is we just talked about the previous team. I think all three are in play, including Tucker Kraft. So it comes down to Jordan Love. It comes down to consistency in this offense. There's a lot of questions, but I think when you have him at 27 where if he stays healthy and this team executes next year we might see him inside the top 15. Because to go back to the ndunze comparison with Jaden Reed is like Jaden Reed kind of plays and they're not the same wide receivers everybody, but like Jaden Reed, Luther Burden crossover and what they can bring to their team's crossover. Dunes and Watson have the upsides with the touchdown equity to be top 15. Bigger part about it too with Watson is that of his touchdowns, only two of the six came in the end zone. They're all from outside. Bigger plays, actually one week and that's what he does.
- [49:31]
Joey P. (Host)
He's the splash.
- [49:32]
Jake Seeley
Well, yeah, well, I was gonna say he had three end zone targets one week and didn't catch a single one of them. So there's like still even potential for more with the touchdown department for Watson.
- [49:40]
Joey P. (Host)
All right. We saw a lot of potential out of a mecha Egbuca last year. The first eight weeks of the season he was wide receiver six. And then things kind of fell apart for him along with the health of Baker Mayfield. Levante David just retired. Fitzy. He spoke about how all the injuries that Baker had that people didn't even know about. So I feel like we could just kind of chalk that up to Baker wasn't healthy. Things kind of fell apart. It just got rough for the Buccaneers. I'm buying back in on Ibuka. And number two on your list here looks like you are as well, especially now that Mike Evans is elsewhere. Now you get an opportunity for Emeke Ibuka, I think to really become a star and a true number one fantasy wide receiver.
- [50:18]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah. So Ebuka was wide receiver three in PPR scoring through the first five weeks of the season. Five touchdowns in those five games. And then it wasn't just Baker Mayfield maybe not being fully healthy, Joe, it was Ebuka himself. He tweaked his hamstring in week six, played through it, but the production started to fall off then and there. First five weeks of the season, Abouk averaged 20.5 PPR points a game caught 65.8% of his targets. From week six on he averaged 7.8 PPR points, caught 42.7% of his targets. So it was a stark contrast between his start and the rest of the season. And yes, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin did both miss some games during Ibuka's hot five game stretch run earlier in the season. But Godwin didn't play in the first three of those games. Evans didn't play in the last two, but at least one of them was playing in all five of those games. So it wasn't like he was totally benefiting from both of those guys being out. Evans now gone. Abouk has a real chance to be the Buccaneers alpha receiver and we've already seen the upside and it was high end wide receiver one upside, you know, wide receiver three through five weeks. That was his rookie season. It is absolutely worth chasing the upside here, Jake.
- [51:34]
Joey P. (Host)
It feels like the only thing it can keep Egg Mecca Egbuca down is the health of Baker Mayfield and the health of Abeke Igbuka.
- [51:41]
Jake Seeley
Keep him down from what though? This is another one from becoming a
- [51:44]
Joey P. (Host)
top, I think top 10 wide receiver in fantasy. Like that's where I think he is, to be honest, I think he's in that range.
- [51:51]
Jake Seeley
That's where if that's where we're going with it, that's where I'll disagree. And it mostly just comes down to and maybe I'm giving him too much hate. I just think that Ibuka is more of a Keenan Allen and I don't think he's fully equipped to be the pure Mike Evans in that aspect. And like for most of Keenan Allen's career about 50% of the time of the slot and if you told me that if like Ebuka was going to be that usage then I'd say probably still not top 10, but maybe top 15 kind of bouncing around that fringe. Wide receiver one what basically older. Well not older but younger before the injury started to mount for Chris Godwin where we, you know we saw a season or two where he got into the side of the top 10. But I think the Chris Godwin being healthy and I'm not saying he's a major factor at this point in his career because he is older now and he is as exceptional as he was. But Chris Godwin we saw McMillan pop off in that one game where McMillan was the baker Mayfield target and we're already remembering from his rookie season how excited people were for McMillan late in that year. So I just think it's A kind of like there's a lot of options here with Ibuka, McMillan and Godwin. And I'm not saying Ibuka is not the best of all three. I have him ranked as the best of all three. I just have him more as like wide receiver 20ish than to say kind of a wide receiver one. And I think it just comes down to there's a lot of talent on this team. Now if Baker Mayfield throws for 4400 yards and 40 touchdowns then well, obviously somebody needs to be a wide receiver one and it would be, well, he's
- [53:16]
Joey P. (Host)
only one year removed from that massive season.
- [53:19]
Jake Seeley
Exactly. That's why, that's why I bring that up. So you know, if we get back to that. Sure. Then yes, he would be the one. I just, I would buy into him more as a two. So that again, it comes down to context of where you would think the breakout for Igbuka is coming.
- [53:31]
Pat Fitz Morris
Sure. You don't have to buy him as a wide receiver one. That's, that's the thing though and I think Joe is saying like that's the upside.
- [53:37]
Jake Seeley
But I don't know actually he was just looking right now at wide receiver 20. That's six over consensus. So there, I'm actually over consensus.
- [53:43]
Joey P. (Host)
So there you go. Yeah, well that's 26 is way too far down for a book in my opinion. If he is going to be I don't think we're going to get there come August. But if he floating is he's floating around 24 or even 20, I will have more mkbukish errors than probably anybody else because I see Nazis.
- [54:00]
Jake Seeley
I think give me the Abuka shares over the Luther Burton shares for the same price.
- [54:05]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah, that's fair. 100 because I have a Buka ranked ahead of Burden.
- [54:10]
Joey P. (Host)
It's a really good discussion point. So drop your comments. Burden or a Mecca Igbuka. Drop your comments below here. And remember, we love to hear from all of you, which is why we love to you in our discord. So go to fantasybros.com chat it's free, it's fun. And we've got a lot of fun shows out there too with Pat Fitzmaurice, with Ryan Wormley and of course with Scott Bogman. 5pm Eastern every first Tuesday and each Tuesday of the rest of the month of April. You can get your questions answered. Be on the shows as well. Fantasypros.com chat Right now we have the AMAs. We got a million channels in there. If you're looking to join leagues, join Dynasty, startups, whatever it is, or just talk football. It's all there on our discord fantasypros.com chat all right, Fitzy, number one here on the breakout list for 2026. And it's not a running back, it's not a wide receiver, nor is it a quarterback. It's a tight end. Fitzy Colston Loveland, who had a really strong finish to the season from week nine to week 18. He was second in fantasy points of all tight ends and half PPR with 119. And it looks like after some of that stretch run into the playoffs, we're seeing a young superstar with Colson Loveland starting to emerge.
- [55:18]
Pat Fitz Morris
I can't believe as a lifelong fan of the Green Bay Packers, I've got two Bears in the top five of this list.
- [55:24]
Joey P. (Host)
Well, you snuck that Packer in there and Watson in between, so.
- [55:27]
Pat Fitz Morris
I did, I did. But still, it's two against one here. Yeah, Loveland. You said it, Joe. Only Trey McBride scored more fantasy points at tight end. From week nine on, the season just kept getting better and better for Loveland. And at the very end of the season, Ben Johnson fully unleashed Colston loveland. He had 10 or more targets in all of his final four games, including the Bears two playoff games. Averaged 12 targets, seven catches, 94 and a half receiving yards over that stretch. And I hate to remind packers fans of this, but in that playoff win for the Bears over the packers, Loveland had 15 targets, eight catches, 137 yards. He was just a monster in that game. This guy is such a matchup nightmare. 6 6, 241 pounds. Most defensive backs can't physically handle him, and Loveland is too fast for most of the linebackers who try to cover him. So turned into a target monster at the end of last season, and that was with DJ Moore around. And now DJ Moore is gone. Like Loveland. I feel like he's poised to just go off in 2026.
- [56:37]
Joey P. (Host)
Jake, the question's not about, you know, where he ranks at tight ends. I think we're all pretty clear he's a top three guy there. We can debate the order if people want to. It's more about overall when it comes to Loveland. For me, He's a top 40 player overall in the consensus rankings. Is that where you have Loveland? Are you ready to take a tight end in the top 40 or are you somebody that wants to wait on some other guys that you feel have some other upside? Less of a. Less of an investment in terms of adp?
- [57:04]
Jake Seeley
So it kind of goes two way. Tight end, is Ricky Bobby first or last? I want to be in that tier one or I'm waiting till the end game and gas is a great opportunity. I am not dipping into the tier twos but if you want to make the argument for Loveland into tier one, I can see it. My hesitancy here is then I'm going to ask and I'm not asking Fitz. I'm going to ask everybody. Like when you, when you sit down and look at the Bears, you need to tell yourself who's getting left out. Because the odds are that Burden, Adunze and Loveland are not all going to be great. I wrote an article or included in one of my waiver articles last year. There's only five times in the history of the NFL where three teammates topped 1,000 receiving yards. Once it included a tight end that was kellan Winslow in 1980. The other times included Peyton Manning throwing for 4,500 yards and 49 touchdowns. One final point to this, twice did a trio do it with 900 yards. So there's only two more times even if you drop down to 900 yards. So I say, all I say is is Caleb Williams going to break the 4,000 mark for the Bears? Is he going to throw for 4400, 4500 yards and is he going to keep it a narrow tree to these three? That's a lot to ask where it's going to be. Somebody needs to be left out. And if Loveland's being drafted as a tier one tight end and he just barely misses the mark and he gets that's 700 yards in the touchdowns which I actually think it's better than that. I put the note down that Fitz had over the final four games. It was asserted he was averaging 16 and a half fantasy points per game and half point PPR. So is it him and Burden? Well then a dunes a and I'm wrong on a dunesay and he's the one that gets left out if it's burden that gets left out. So I think that's the biggest thing when you're investing in the Bears. Are we either going to get a career year, a historic season from this offense and Caleb Williams or who's going to be the one that left out. And I think that's going to be the biggest question to ask yourself when you're drafting this year is who do you think has the biggest risk?
- [58:57]
Joey P. (Host)
I have a third option that I like to throw out there. It's Colston Loveland. Every Week plus a wide receiver. That's my take on the Bears offense.
- [59:07]
Jake Seeley
Watching how they operate so they cannibalize each other and they both end up getting left out to a degree is
- [59:11]
Joey P. (Host)
what to a degree. Yes, to a degree. My hesitation with the Bears wide receivers is partially the Bears wide receivers, but also due in part to Colston Loveland, who I think is integral to what they want to do offensively. He's a guy that obviously we, you know, he went in there and he drafted for a reason. And we, we know that when the new coach comes in, you always pay attention to the guys drafted. I know Luther Burton was that guy too. But I think that when you see what the Bears evolved into last year, Loveland is a cornerstone piece. I'm not saying that the wide receivers aren't important, but I think the variability goes week to week between the wide receivers, not between Loveland and a wide receiver, if that makes sense. Fitzy, that's my take on it. I don't know if you agree or disagree.
- [59:51]
Pat Fitz Morris
Yeah. And I feel like with three principal pass catching targets for Caleb Williams, like, I don't feel like that's too crowded. I think there's enough room for everyone to eat and I don't expect both of the receivers to have 1200 yard seasons. It probably will ebb and flow a little bit with some of those guys. Like, I don't, I don't see O'Dunze or Burden is really potential wide receiver ones more as potential wide receiver twos.
- [60:17]
Joey P. (Host)
Yeah. All right, everybody. So what do you think of all these breakout performers? What do you think of the bear situation? Drop all your comments in the YouTube, subscribe to the channel. Ring the bell till it goes ding. Make sure you join us on NFL Draft Night 2 for all of our coverage and subscribe to our newest channel, the Tailgate NFL. Go check it out on YouTube. Just search Tailgate NFL. It'll pop up there. It's a super fun opportunity if you just love talking football, listen to people talk football. That's what we're doing. It's not just fantasy. It's a lot more than that. It's all the news and notes of the day and a whole lot of fun, too. It's like hanging out with your homies, having a good time and talking a little ball. And that's what I get to do every single day here on the shows, which is awesome. Jake Sealy from the Athletic, great stuff as always. Appreciate you spending time with us. And of course, for more of Fitzy's rankings You can check them out@fantasy pros.com that'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on. For Jake Seeley and Pat Fitz Morris, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time kids.
- [61:08]
Brooks Running Advertiser
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros. Max Softness, Max Energy Max Run Go on a run that never runs out in the New Brooks Glycerin Max 2 dual cell DNA tuned cushion is optimized for soft landings and powerful toe offs while a glide roll rocker helps provide a more fluid step through. To help you truly tune out and max your run, shop the Glycerin Max 2@brooksrunning.com this is Julian Edelman from Games With Names.
- [62:17]
Julian Edelman
I got a look at the first ever Infiniti QX65 and wow. Let me tell you, it's one of those rides that immediately grabs your attention. Sporty, smart and surprisingly spacious, it show stopping presence and Infiniti keeps pushing the standard of luxury forward. The QX65 takes things up a notch with the bold design and some serious tech like Pro pilot assist 2.1 Klipsch individual audio and a 3D around view monitor. Then you add turbocharged engine, standard intelligent all wheel drive and available 21 inch wheels and the QX65 just feels unstoppable. Ready to experience the first ever infinity QX65 for yourself? Visit infinityusa.com to see the QX65 and learn more. 2027 QX65 expected early summer 2026 your
- [63:18]
Podcast Announcer
social media feed delivers plenty of advice, but it doesn't know you. It doesn't ask questions. It doesn't give physical exams or order tests doctors do. At the American Medical association, we believe the best care starts with a real conversation with someone who understands the science and your unique health. So stay curious. Ask questions, but when it's time to make decisions, make them with a doctor. Learn more@amahealthvshype.org that's amahealthvshipe.org this is Jacob
- [63:48]
Jacob Goldstein
Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out Odoo at o d o o dot com. That's o d o o dot com.
- [64:20]
Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.