FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Players Most at Risk of Losing Jobs After Free Agency (Ep. 1958)

Date: February 11, 2026
Host: Joey P (Joe P. Zeppia)
Guests: Jake Seeley (The Athletic), Andrew Erickson

Episode Overview

This episode dives into NFL players most at risk of losing their fantasy relevance or starting jobs due to the upcoming 2026 NFL free agency period. Joey P, Jake Seeley, and Andrew Erickson break down how established players, up-and-comers, and whole positional groups could see dramatic value swings based on real-life roster moves. The tone is energetic, fun, and honest, with plenty of in-depth fantasy football insight and actionable advice, especially for dynasty league players.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Young Players With High Risk Entering Free Agency

Highlighted Players: J.J. McCarthy (Vikings), Woody Marks (Texans)

J.J. McCarthy – Minnesota Vikings

• Situation: McCarthy delivered a rough sophomore year after being drafted with high expectations. The Vikings moved on from GM mid-offseason and lost Sam Darnold, who won a Super Bowl elsewhere.
• Jake Seeley:

  “They might be done with J.J. McCarthy. They might have already decided, this isn’t working, we’re moving on. … JJ McCarthy might be done and that’s why he could lose all his value.” (03:43)

• Concerns center around McCarthy’s lack of progress, poor performance, and high pressure after watching Darnold thrive elsewhere.
• Impact: If Vikings change QBs via free agency or trade, McCarthy’s value collapses—this could actually help Justin Jefferson in fantasy.

Woody Marks – Houston Texans

• Andrew Erickson:

  “I look at Woody Marks…as a former day 3 running back. The draft capital is not there for him to be…irreplaceable.” (05:41)

• Racked up stats via volume but bottomed out in all efficiency metrics (yards/carry, explosive runs, missed tackles).
• Also constantly nicked up, hindering trust and upside.
• Texans may add a veteran or rookie RB, or even trade for a star like Breece Hall.

  “If Hall ends up in Houston, I mean, Woody Marks, sayonara to any value that he had.” (08:13)

2. Running Backs on Thin Ice

Jakory Croskey-Merritt (Washington Commanders), Alvin Kamara (Saints)

• Jakory Croskey-Merritt:
  Jake sees Washington as “very live” to add a major free agent RB or significant committee piece.

  “Jakor(y) Croskey-Merritt, I would almost bet money is splitting with somebody next year even if he’s the lead, I think it might only be 50% of the workload.” (10:18)

• Alvin Kamara:
  Age, salary cap, and declining efficiency on the decline.

  “They are second worst in terms of salary cap space at negative $42 million...career low three catches per game.” (11:03, Andrew) “I have concerns about the moving pieces in that backfield.” (13:43, Andrew)

• Even if he remains, Kamara could lose passing work and goal-line touches—fantasy trustworthiness fading.

3. Wide Receiver Groups in Jeopardy: Team Overhauls

Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots

• Buffalo Bills:
  Have not replaced Stefon Diggs, lack a clear WR1, and the group is “junk” behind Allen.

  “The Bills are realizing…what they’re doing to Josh Allen is like what the Giants did with Saquon Barkley: hey, let’s have this amazing talent and surround them with junk.” (15:31, Jake) Expectation: Bills must add a WR1 (Mike Evans, A.J. Brown trade?) which would push down existing WRs (Shakir, Coleman, Palmer).
  “Whoever they bring in is going to push down Shakir…He can’t be the one for this team.” (16:32, Jake)

• New England Patriots:
  No true alpha; Diggs produced but showing age and is an expensive near-term asset.

  “I think it makes more sense for them to not pay Stefon Diggs necessarily a ton of money if they can use those assets…towards getting a better younger wide receiver to pair with Drake May.” (18:26, Andrew) Patriots could land a premier WR (A.J. Brown?)—which would squash depth pieces’ fantasy value.

4. Lightning Round: Notable Individual Risers/Fallers at Risk

Darnell Mooney, Calvin Ridley, Theo Johnson, Jake Ferguson, James Conner, Aaron Jones, Michael Penix

• Darnell Mooney (ATL): New regime, no investment in Mooney, potential outside WR additions risk his job.

  “I don’t even know if he’s the number two next year at this point.” (26:15, Jake)

• Calvin Ridley (TEN): Aging, injured, underperformed, possible cut despite Daboll history. Might reunite with Wandale Robinson elsewhere, but future looks grim.

  “Calvin Ridley, the buy low that is still seeing his value go down and down by the days…” (27:51, Andrew)

• Theo Johnson (NYG TE): John Harbaugh as head coach likely brings in his own TE (Isaiah Likely).

  “Theo Johnson’s dead.” (31:09, Jake)

• Jake Ferguson (DAL TE): Value locked to target share; with healthy WRs, his upside vanishes.

  “Ferguson, I’m not so sure that he is this super dynamic player…so Jake Ferguson for me is trending like a tight end that I’m not going to be drafting a lot next year.” (32:51, Andrew)

5. Quick-Hits & Closing Thoughts

Lightning Reactions

• James Conner & Aaron Jones: Both aging, high salary, injury-prone—likely to be cut or become timeshare backs.

  “He’s like Theo Johnson, you’re done.” (34:49, Jake, on James Conner) “Free agency is going to hurt Jones because I think he’s going to be on the open market.” (34:54, Andrew)

• Michael Penix (ATL): Not that young, injury concerns; Stefanski might hedge with a vet QB.

  “…Michael Penix plays the first four weeks. Doesn’t look right. Joe Flacco. Put him in.” (36:08, Andrew)

Most "Out On" and "In On" Players If Free Agency Started Tomorrow

• Most Out:

  • Andrew: Woody Marks (“I’m much lower on him versus consensus.”) (37:48)
  • Jake: Jakory Croskey-Merritt (37:59)

• Most In:

  • Jake: Kenneth Walker (if he leaves SEA for bell cow role: “If somebody pays him to bell cow…that would be good.”) (38:33)
  • Andrew: Breece Hall (if traded):

    “If he’s not on the Jets, 31 teams have a chance to save Breece Hall and I’m here for it.” (40:56)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On J.J. McCarthy:

  “He can’t come out your second year and look as raw as he did…An old ass Carson Wentz with one arm was doing better with Justin Jefferson in this offense than you were.” (04:25, Jake)

• On Woody Marks:

  “Bottom 10 yards per carry…dead last in fantasy points versus expectation. Every time it looked like he was going to take a step forward in a game, he would leave with an injury…” (05:41, Andrew)

• On Buffalo WR room:

  “This is very simple. They don’t have a one. They’re going to address this position and maybe it’s only in the draft, but we are talking free agency.” (16:32, Jake)

• On Patriots WR strategy:

  “They are in the market to land a premier pass catcher, whether that is in free agency or in the NFL draft.” (18:26, Andrew) “[A.J. Brown] can still play like a number one wide receiver. Still 28 years old, still a guy that can produce at an elite level.” (19:20, Andrew)

• On free agency hot takes:

  “You want to pay me a million dollars a year? I’ll go kick for the damn Jets.” (42:19, Jake)

Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------------| | 03:43 | Jake: McCarthy’s risk of losing starting job | | 05:41 | Andrew: Woody Marks critique and Texans backfield risks | | 10:18 | Jake: Commanders’ RB room and risk for Croskey-Merritt | | 11:03 | Andrew: Alvin Kamara’s value on decline in New Orleans | | 15:31 | Jake: Bills’ WR group criticism and call for overhaul | | 18:26 | Andrew: Patriots WR group and need for alpha presence | | 26:15 | Jake: Darnell Mooney on the outs in Atlanta | | 27:51 | Andrew: Calvin Ridley’s value sunk in Tennessee | | 31:09 | Jake: Theo Johnson (NYG TE) at risk, likely replaced | | 32:51 | Andrew: Jake Ferguson’s tight end value post-FA | | 34:49 | Jake: James Conner “done” in Arizona | | 34:54 | Andrew: Aaron Jones cut risk and value loss | | 36:08 | Andrew: Penix’s shaky outlook under Stefanski | | 37:48 | Andrew: Most “out” on Woody Marks | | 38:33 | Jake: Most “in” on Kenneth Walker’s post-SEA potential | | 40:56 | Andrew: Breece Hall’s upside if traded | | 42:19 | Jake: Sarcastic offer to “kick for the Jets” |

Summary Table: Players Most at Risk After Free Agency

| Player/Group | Team | Risk Level | Why? | |----------------------|------------------|------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | J.J. McCarthy | Vikings | HIGH | Poor development, possible replacement at QB | | Woody Marks | Texans | HIGH | Inefficient, injury-prone, likely replaced | | Jakory Croskey-Merritt | Commanders | HIGH | No clear feature role, likely new RB added | | Alvin Kamara | Saints | HIGH | Aging, cap hit, uncertain role | | Bills WRs (Shakir, Coleman, etc.) | Bills | HIGH | New WR1 almost guaranteed to arrive | | Patriots WRs | Patriots | HIGH | Seeking alpha WR, could add star via FA or draft | | Darnell Mooney | Falcons | HIGH | New regime, no ties, possible replacement | | Calvin Ridley | Titans | HIGH | Aging, injured, new regime, might be released | | Theo Johnson | Giants (TE) | HIGH | Harbaugh likely to bring in own TE (Isaiah Likely) | | Jake Ferguson | Cowboys (TE) | MODERATE | Value plummets if WRs healthy | | James Conner | Cardinals | HIGH | Age, injuries, likely timeshare/cut | | Aaron Jones | Vikings | HIGH | Age, injuries, cap, likely cut | | Michael Penix | Falcons | MODERATE | Injury history, new regime might hedge |

Overall Takeaways

• Free agency will result in numerous established and young players losing value due to incoming competition, team desperation, or regime change.
• Veterans with mileage (Kamara, Conner, Jones) are most at risk, but so are “promise but not production” types (McCarthy, Woody Marks, Mooney, Ridley).
• Whole position groups (WR in Buffalo and New England, RB in Houston and DC) are live for shakeups that could wipe out borderline starters’ fantasy value overnight.
• Dynasty managers: Use this window to “sell on hope” for overvalued names likely to lose jobs.

For more, subscribe to the FantasyPros Dynasty YouTube channel and stay tuned for more free agency breakdowns!