FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Episode: Projecting the First Round | The Top 12 Fantasy Football Players in 2026 (Ep. 1939)
Date: January 16, 2026
Host: Joey P. Zapia
Guests: Jake Seeley (The Athletic), Andrew Erickson (Fantasy Pros)
Episode Overview
The crew gathers for a classic fantasy football exercise: projecting what the first round of 2026 fantasy football drafts will look like, months before the season kicks off. Joey P., Jake, and Andrew break down their personal Top 12 lists, debate positional values, discuss players’ situations, and analyze how ever-shifting NFL factors (coaching changes, free agency, injuries, offensive lines, and more) impact first-round strategy. The episode is filled with player-specific arguments, trends, and friendly banter meant to give listeners early insight and a great foundation for draft prep.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
The Value of Early Projections
- Draft Boards Are Fluid: All three emphasize that this exercise is about flexibility. Projections in January will look nothing like drafts in August. As Jake Seeley says:
“Drafting today should look nothing like your drafts come August, but the exercise ... lets you pivot on the spot because you know these names, you know the information.” (01:35)
- Context Matters: Coaching changes, free agency moves, injuries, and even rumors can have drastic impacts on top-12 values.
The Hosts’ First-Round Projections (Picks 1–4)
Jake Seeley’s Top 4 (03:51)
- Bijan Robinson (RB)
- Puka Nacua (WR)
- Jackson Smith-Njigba (WR)
- Jamar Chase (WR)
- Bijan Robinson: Only RB Jake sees as truly safe; still hasn't hit his ceiling.
- Puka Nacua: Elevated by elite target share, even amid injury and QB questions; only hesitancy is Matthew Stafford’s future (06:09).
- Smith-Njigba & Chase: Top target volumes, but tie-breakers come down to consistency, offensive schemes, and QB health.
Andrew Erickson’s Top 4 (08:15)
- Bijan Robinson (RB)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
- Jamar Chase (WR)
- James Cook (RB)
- RBs On The Rise: Points out trend reversal vs. previous years; more RBs finishing in top 12 than WRs (08:15).
- James Cook: Called a “prime time running back” and “NFL’s leading rusher,” gets unique billing as a high-volume, low-competition option in Buffalo.
Joey P. Zapia’s Top 4 (11:48)
- Jackson Smith-Njigba (WR, Seahawks)
- Jamar Chase (WR)
- Bijan Robinson (RB)
- Puka Nacua (WR)
- Smith-Njigba at 1: Believes Seattle runs it back as-is, maximizing JSN’s share with Sam Darnold at QB.
- Notes his preference for top-4 wide receivers, given reliable context/stability.
Big Debates & Notable Quotes
Jamar Chase’s Ceiling and Consistency
- Jake Seeley (20:12):
"The 20 point season was the anomaly. The other three seasons with Joe Burrow went healthy... he's averaged 16.2, 16.3 fantasy points per game... which is amazing but it's not even JSN and it's hell far from Puka Nacua."
- Andrew Erickson (22:28):
"I just, I guess I would push back when Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase are playing at a high level, I don't think anyone can beat them as a combination versus Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua."
Christian McCaffrey: Age, Usage, and Ranking
- Deep dive (30:20–36:17). The panel spends ~7 minutes dissecting McCaffrey’s first-round value given his age (turns 30), insane workload (400+ touches), and risk of decline.
- Andrew Erickson (30:34):
“He’s not in my top eight. He barely stuck into my first round. He’s number 12. Spoiler.”
- Jake Seeley (26:06):
"If you take 20% off what Christian McCaffrey just did... he's still RB5."
- Joey P. Zapia (26:39):
"It's not just now the total... year old number standing us in the face too."
The Coaching/Context Factor
- All three stress that OC/head coaching changes can dramatically reshape a player’s fantasy outlook (e.g. Mike McDaniel landing in Detroit would make Jahmyr Gibbs potentially the 1.01).
The Sun God Slander
- Amon-Ra St. Brown is Joey’s top-5 lock, and he calls out the others for underrating him:
"We don't deserve Amon-Ra St. Brown, okay?...the slander has gone too far, not enough respect on his name." (39:41)
Picks 5–8: More Debate and Contrasts
Jake Seeley (23:39) 5. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) 6. Christian McCaffrey (RB) 7. Jonathan Taylor (RB) 8. Devon Achane (RB)
Andrew Erickson (35:52) 5. Jackson Smith-Njigba (WR) 6. Puka Nacua (WR) 7. Jonathan Taylor (RB) 8. CeeDee Lamb (WR)
Joey P. (41:06) 5. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) 6. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) 7. CeeDee Lamb (WR) 8. Drake London (WR)
Key Commentary:
- Joey pounds the table for Amon-Ra (“PPR God”) and argues for valuing weekly consistency.
- Jake takes heat for having Rashee Rice in his top-12, citing “he’s Drake London on the Chiefs” (47:49).
- Andrew is bearish on Drake London (cites Atlanta uncertainty) and CMC (production drop-off without George Kittle and visual athletic decline).
Closing Out The First Round: Picks 9–12
Jake Seeley (45:37, 49:00) 9. James Cook (RB) 10. Rashee Rice (WR) 11. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) 12. Omarion Hampton (RB, rookie)
Andrew Erickson (53:31) 9. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) 10. Devon Achane (RB) 11. Saquon Barkley (RB) 12. Christian McCaffrey (RB)
Joey P. (57:51) 9. Justin Jefferson (WR) 10. Jonathan Taylor (RB) 11. James Cook (RB) 12. Christian McCaffrey (RB)
Notables:
- Omarion Hampton's inclusion is justified by Jake for bellcow potential in a retooled LAC offense.
- Justin Jefferson stays in Joey’s top-12—“extraordinary talent” whose situation is almost certain to improve.
Players on the Outside Looking In (61:52, 64:01)
- Trey McBride (TE) - No one had him in their first round, citing depth at TE and uncertainty.
- Nico Collins, Chris Olave, Devon Achane (for Joey), Ashan Genti (Jake and Andrew elite, but situation-dependent).
- Drake London: Only Joey placed him in first round, citing potential breakout if healthy and minimal competition.
- Rookie Running Backs? The consensus is that no rookies will crack the top-12 in 2026 redraft, though Jake gives a “maybe” to Jeremiah Love if he gets perfect draft capital and landing spot (67:25).
Notable Quotes & Moments
- On why this exercise matters:
"It’s not about being right today; it’s about having a flexible process and updating your thinking as new data and situations emerge." – (Multiple, recurring theme)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown respect:
"He shows up every week. He is the main cog. He is the PPR God. He is the Sun God... The base he gives you every week as a floor of points is terrific." – Joey P. (39:41)
- Christian McCaffrey age discourse, comedic roundtable:
“We’re not convincing each other. Like, I just…was throwing the numbers out to say this is why I have [CMC] here. If you disagree with me, I’m okay with it.” – Jake Seeley (31:41)
Important Segments & Timestamps
- Intro/Theme (00:00–03:20)
- Exercise explanation and how rankings shift all offseason (01:31–02:50)
- Run down of Top 4s & reasoning (Jake, Andrew, Joey) (03:51–11:48)
- Deep dive: Jamar Chase vs. others in WR pecking order (20:01–23:30)
- Christian McCaffrey workload, age & “risk” debate (26:06–35:52)
- Rapid-fire through 5–8 & contextual debates on several players (35:52–43:58)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ranking and overlooked value (39:41–41:07)
- Discussion on “tiering” positions for first rounds instead of strict order (45:37)
- Controversy: Rashee Rice in first round, Mahomes injury risk (47:31–49:00)
- Potential first-round rookies in 2026? (67:02–68:06)
- Favorite second-round/turn value targets (66:02–67:02)
Summary Table: Most Frequently Selected First-Round Players
| Player | Jake Seeley | Andrew Erickson | Joey P. Zapia | |-----------------------|:-----------:|:---------------:|:-------------:| | Bijan Robinson | X | X | X | | Jamar Chase | X | X | X | | Jackson Smith-Njigba | X | X | X | | Puka Nacua | X | X | X | | Jahmyr Gibbs | X | X | X | | James Cook | X | X | X | | Jonathan Taylor | X | X | X | | CeeDee Lamb | | X | X | | Amon-Ra St. Brown | X | X | X | | Devon Achane | X | X | | | Rashee Rice | X | | | | Drake London | | | X | | Christian McCaffrey | X | X | X | | Omarion Hampton | X | | | | Saquon Barkley | | X | | | Justin Jefferson | | | X |
Tone & Style
The episode is fast-paced, lively, and humorous, but always rooted in data and sharp analysis. The hosts don’t shy away from disagreement and often break into digressions or inside jokes, but always return to actionable advice and roster-building philosophy.
For Listeners Who Missed the Episode
This episode is the perfect early-offseason listen for fantasy players who want to gain insight into the shifting first-round landscape, learn how to adjust for context, and get a feel for the major debates and trends that will shape 2026 drafts. It sets the tone for fluidity in rankings and stresses the importance of planning for variance as the NFL landscape evolves. Whether you’re a “RB early” believer or a “lock in WR” drafter, this roundtable covers every angle to inform your prep.