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Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast.
Matt Jones
Hey, this is Matt Jones and I'm Drew Franklin and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different.
Dbro
Did you see the Colts pretzel?
Matt Jones
That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week, that is exactly what you're going to get. Listen to NFL Cover 0 with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
Ryan Warmley
Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast, our Friday show. I am Ryan Warmley, joined as I will be every Friday and have been for the last few years by Pat Fitzmaurice and Derrick Brown. Fellas, this is our key questions episode. I know from talking to you guys that it is one of your favorite shows to do every week. It is my favorite show to do every week. We just basically highlight one or two questions for every single matchup on the slate and have a conversation about what we expect this game to look like, players that we are interested in, all that good stuff. It's a casual show. It is a fun show. It is a question forward show. We did sort of a season preview version of the show earlier over the holiday weekend. This will be what the weekly Friday show looks like for anybody who is here with us for the first time in season. Dbro, how are you feeling here?
Dbro
I feel it a lot better than it was two days ago, man. The. The primer for week one is out. I feel like, man, I just. Every single week, it's like every single week, that's like the, the thing on my back that I'm carrying and once I get that out into the ether and it's. It's live and then I move on to different types of content for the rest of the week. It's like I feel like I can breathe again, boys. I feel like I could breathe.
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, we are taping this a day early. This has become our annual tradition because you have a draft that go takes place after the Thursday night opener. So you'll be out of town on Friday morning. Typically, just so everybody knows, for housekeeping, we will be recording this on Friday mornings for this week only week one because of Fitz's schedule. And again, this has been the case the last couple of years, so we're happy to do it. We are taping this before Thursday, so we're not going to touch on the Thursday game because this isn't coming out Till Friday. But if some big piece of news happened, you know, if we probably could, frankly just pretend we watch the game. Eagles win by a billion. I expect that to be, you know, the way it's going to go. But in case there's a huge upset by the Cowboys or some crazy injury or any other piece of news, normally on the Friday show, we will be able to react to some of that Thursday game news and information and twists and turns. We will not be doing that this week because that game hasn't happened yet. So just letting everybody know that. But Fitz, are you excited for this kind of final draft? You always have every.
Fitz
Yeah, I am. And just to answer any questions people might have on their mind. So we start in week two. After the first week, we have a cooling off period. It's like buying a handgun. You can't use it in anger right away. You draft your team and then you have to wait a week before you can unleash it on other people.
Ryan Warmley
So one more thing that I want to hit on before we dive in. You guys saw me. I put on this Georgia Tech sweatshirt before we started recording. I promised my uncle I would wear this. He was in town over the Labor Day weekend. He and my cousin came in. My uncle went to Georgia Tech. They were in town for the Colorado Georgia Tech game. Georgia Tech won. It was actually an awesome game. We put a little money down on it. So I was very happy about that. On. On Tech to win by exactly seven. And they won by exactly seven. So that was pretty lucrative for us. And. And I promised that I would wear this sweatshirt on the show if that happened. So here I am, Uncle Greg, for you. Georgia Tech. Go Yellow Jackets. They beat Colorado and hope they have a good rest of the year. Yeah, I. I don't really have a strong opinion on Georgia Tech, but I guess actually now that they won me some money, I will be rooting for that. They will be my team of the year. Besides Maryland, who?
Fitz
Georgia. Not.
Dbro
Not to jump the gun. Can we get a bet, like, if the Bills beat the Ravens this week, you can wear some Bills gear. No, no.
Ryan Warmley
Absolutely.
Dbro
We can't get that to happen. No, no, no, no.
Fitz
Do not.
Ryan Warmley
Because I expect that to happen.
Fitz
Do not mess with the Yellow Jackets on week one of the college football season. They knocked off Florida State overseas last year in the opener and this year go into Boulder and beat Colorado. Like, watch out for the Yellow Jackets, man.
Ryan Warmley
That's exactly what my uncle was saying. We're talking about it before the game. How, like, because I was like, hey, who do you think said a win? We should put some money on this. We're here in Colorado, we can bet. And he was like, well, they always, they usually get a pretty big upset early in the season. Their coach key I think is his name gets him ready to go early. They got a good quarterback. He rushed for three touchdowns in that one. King is his last name. So, yeah, it was really fun game to go. Boulder is just like a beautiful city. It's a beautiful stadium. If you ever have a chance to go. I can't recommend it enough. Night games, super fun there. So had a great time. Go Jackets. Let's dive into the actual show. By the way, quick reminder. All of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers each and every week of the season can be found@fantasyprose.com rankings. We have a Friday night game, guys. Second year in a row that we've had this kind of coming. Right off the opener, I wasn't sure how I was going to feel about it. I expected to like it. And even though the game was really sloppy last year, like the field conditions were really iffy. I'm really excited to have this game because you get that Thursday opener, you don't want to wait like, you know, whatever it is, 60 hours until you get more football. You want another one right away. So I really like that they have this Friday game now and this year is a good one. It's Chiefs, Chargers. My key question for you guys and deeper. I'll start with you in the week one expert consensus rankings. And by the way, whenever I reference the rankings, unless I specifically say otherwise, this is going to be half PPR that we're talking about. But in the week one expert consensus rankings, Omarion Hampton is RB18. Xavier Worthy is wide receiver 18. So if you could only start one in your flex spot, who would it be? Hampton as running back 18 or Worthy as receiver 18?
Dbro
Man, it's going to be Hampton. I think this is just leaning on the volume. Although we did see it grace the the news wire that Naji Harris is supposed to start this game. That's probably just a veteran ceremonial start. Like maybe he gets the first drive or maybe he gets the first few snaps and stuff like that. But I think this is just a volume play. Like both of these guys have have pretty rough matchups. So for me, it's going to be Hampton just leaning on the volume and the touchdown equity he probably has in this offense.
Ryan Warmley
What do you think, Fitz? I find myself a little, I've been a little worried about Hampton for most of the summer relative to where he's been ranked because I am nervous that he is not going to get the volume that we anticipate. You know, Worthy obviously has this Runway with with Rice not playing. So how do you see it? Hampton vs. Worthy?
Fitz
Yeah. One of the things I've really missed during the long NFL off season is Twitter during a standalone game. Like, we all know that even on a slow day, Twitter is like a Wild west saloon. It's loud, it's rowdy. Stick around long enough and you'll see someone get thrown through a plate glass window. Twitter during a standalone game is like Wild West Saloon times 10. Like the hot takes are flying. There's some really good comedic takes. There are also a lot of really bad takes and there's just so much anger about everything. The vitriol levels are just through the roof. And now just imagine the level of anger on Twitter if Najee Harris gets nearly as many touches or as many touches as a Marian Hampton. Like people are going to lose their freaking minds. And I could totally see this being much more of a 5050 split in week one than anyone in the fantasy community wants it to be. And I don't know about the start thing. I know Greg Branos of Coach Speak Index, a really good Twitter account. He sort of batted away that initial report and said no. Jim Harbaugh has never said anything of the sorts. So I don't know if Harris actually starts, but I do think Harris might play more than we expect. So the other thing is that the Chiefs gave up the fewest fantasy points and the third fewest rushing yards to running backs last year. Like Steve Spagnolo's defense has always been murder against the run. And as for Worthy, no Rasheed Rice for the Chiefs. He's suspended. And with Rice hurt last season worthy had 50 catches over Kansas City's final eight games if you include the playoffs. So that's like better than 100 catch pace. With no Rice, I think we can expect a busy night for Worthy.
Ryan Warmley
Debra, you kind of focused your analysis on the Hampton side. What do you think about Worthy in a vacuum in this game?
Dbro
I mean, I'm more worried about. I think the volume will be there for him, but I'm worried about what he's going to do as far as actual efficiency. Only in the. In that breakout, that breakout time time frame that Fitz he talked about. So week 17 or 13 through 17 when he faced too high coverage, which is he's going to get a ton of that this week like the Chargers ran at the third highest rate last year. Worthy had only in that Rasheed Rice roll. He had only an 18% target per route run rate against too high. He only produced 1.0 yards per route run and.016 first downs per route run which is basement level. So I, I, I have a lot of concerns about Worthy. Although like I, I see the volume point that vids you makes.
Ryan Warmley
That game is on Peacock, right? Am I remembering that correctly? The Friday night game. I can't remember what it was. Oh, it might, that might be a YouTube game. Sorry, I forgot to write that down.
Dbro
I think it is. I think that is or YouTube or Netflix of those.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I don't think it's Netflix but I could be wrong. At any rate that's too many streaming services.
Dbro
We shall see. I'll to find it soon.
Ryan Warmley
Don't even talk to me about like watching games. I mean this like commercial stuff on red zone I actually think oh dude.
Dbro
Total can of worms. I but we will be here for that will consume the next hour.
Ryan Warmley
Can of what by the way? Can. Can of worms. Yeah, I do, I do think Pat McAfee might be the dumbest thing he's ever said that oh, people aren't going to care about commercials.
Dbro
What it might be the only thing they care about. That, that, that's, that's co toeing the company line. That's what that's called.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, of course. But it still makes them look dumb. Well, let's get into the red zone slate here Sunday early on first game that we'll talk about. Buccaneers at Falcons Emeka Egbuca was one of the biggest draft risers during this, during, you know, August really during draft season. Do we expect a hot start right away? Right off the bat in week one? First career game for this rookie fits.
Fitz
I think so IG Bukan, Mike Evans should both see a lot of targets and if IG Buka is mostly playing from the slot, he should have a pretty favorable matchup. It looks like the Falcons slot corner is going to be Billy Bowman Jr. 4th round rookie who played safety at Oklahoma. Bowman's a good football player but that is a matchup. I would expect Igbuka to win.
Ryan Warmley
Dbro, I messaged you yesterday when putting together this sheet I was like, I was like hey, is this a typo? Do you really have a Mecca Buka as wide receiver 61 in your Week 1 rankings? It turned out I was looking at a not updated version of the rankings. I was looking at them from like May so That was my bad in asking you that because obviously that would have been. I was going to ask you that question, like, what am I missing here? Why do you hate him? Instead, it's the reverse. You're actually above consensus on Igbuka.
Dbro
Yeah. Right now in my most recent set of rankings, I've got Egbuka at wide receiver 19. I'm extremely high on. On him. Chris Godwin's not going to play in this game. Mike Evans, this is not a great coverage shell matchup for him, although I do think he's going to get his volume. But Kate Otten is banged up. Like, Jalen McMillan is not playing. We know Sterling Shepard's not going to command a high target share. It is going to be all Mike Evans and Igbuka. I think Igbuka probably leads his team in targets out the gate this week because the matchup. Fitzy, I mean, dude hitting all the, the proper points here. Like, I'm not worried about Billy Bowman Jr. About him, like his final collegiate season, he allowed a 68% catch rate and a 1:25 passer rating in slot coverage. Now they're expecting this dude, like to just go cover Igbuko Week 1, which, I mean, just, if you want to just talk about rookie corners in general, not a converted safety asked to play nickel. Now you know about rookie corners in general. Ricky corners don't usually start out with like Sauce Gardner, like Joey Porter Jr. Just studs out the gate. They usually struggle find their feet. And if they're good, most of them, you'll see the back half of the season. That's where they really kind of get their legs underneath them. So Igbuka in week one, wheels up dude, like, he should be ranked as a wide receiver too. I think he's going to get a ton of freaking targets. Atlanta's going to run a lot of too high coverage. Probably at least like 51 to 55% of their defensive snapshots. All of this leans in Egg Buka's direction.
Fitz
Do you think is this. Oh, I'm, I'm sorry. I was just going to say, do you think Egbuca is. Gets more of the slot snaps than shepherd, or do you think Egbuca might spend a lot of time playing Z in this game?
Dbro
No, I think they're, I think they're going to put Shepard out there as like a sacrificial perimeter wide receiver. I think a book is going to spend 60% plus in the slot, maybe higher. Just depends.
Fitz
Gotcha.
Ryan Warmley
I was gonna, I was gonna ask You D ro do you think that Igbuka like this is this a matchup specific aggressive ranking or do you anticipate ranking him around that wide receiver 20 range? Really like multiple weeks kind of right off the bat here?
Dbro
I mean what where would be we'd be ranking Chris Godwin if he was fully healthy we would be ranking him in this offense. And I'm not going to like make the exact one to one comparison but I mean he's going to play a very similar role. He's going to be the counterpoint counterpart to like Mike Evans is going to crush single high coverage. He's good versus too high but not as good. Like I think the targets are going to go in that direction. I mean what's to stop him right now from being and and we saw other stuff like a video surface yesterday of Chris Godwin walking and stuff. He doesn't look great. I don't even know when we see Chris Godwin this year. Like I know he's not on the IR and stuff like that, but that doesn't mean that we're going to see him suit up in week three. And if we do, at what point do we see like not even a fully healthy Chris Godwin? Like 75 to 80% Chris Godwin? Like a book. It should be like it's a narrow target tree guys. Like he should probably be a wide receiver too. In weekly ranks.
Ryan Warmley
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Dbro
And that's the way it should be. Like, come on.
Ryan Warmley
So, yeah, that's definitely what we all want to see for sure. All right, let's get to our next game here. Bengals at Browns Key question here, dbro, starting with you. The Bengals always start off slow, but this year they actually did play their starters a bit in the preseason, which they hadn't done before. So do you think that will be enough to help them play better this year in week one against a terrible Brown Steam?
Dbro
I think it's the aim. I don't know if we're going to see it, but I think it's the aim. I mean, you don't run Joe Burrow and company and starters and Jamar Chase for like two to three drives in the freaking preseason if that's not what you're trying to accomplish. But to your point, Worm, this is the avenue. If you want to get off to a hot start, this is the team like, you'd want to see first on your schedule. Like, the Browns are not anything that I'm worried about. A lot of single high coverage, which leads to big day for Jamar Chase. As long as he's probably not going to see Denzel Ward a ton, they're going to move him around the formation. They've been doing that more and more. T. Higgins is good versus single high. You're not worried about the pass rush outside of Miles Garrett. So as long as they can give Joe Burrow, like, decently clean pockets, which again, you're not worried about anybody outside of Garrett and outside of Ward in the coverage structure. So, yeah, I think the Bengals get off to a really strong start. I already bet the spread for the.
Ryan Warmley
Bengals to cover for as much as you say this is a great matchup to go against. We said the same thing last year about the Patriots and they lost that game. Fitz, what do you make of this week?
Dbro
Do you think the Bengals before we get to like, do you think the Bengals cup, like, speaking a hard rock bet, that line is minus four and a half. You don't think the Bengals can cover that?
Ryan Warmley
Oh, that Move. That was. We. We taped a show earlier today on Thursday, and it was minus four and a half.
Dbro
Minus four. It's four and a half, minus one right now.
Ryan Warmley
Interesting. Give me a question.
Dbro
I'm actually gonna bet it right now.
Ryan Warmley
Obviously they can. I mean, Joe Flacco has a lot of experience in this division. Right. Like, he's faced the Bengals a bunch. We like the Bengals defense is terrible. Like, there's a lot of things that you could, if you want to build the case for an upset and just, just their history, like I mentioned. Fitz, how do you see this one?
Fitz
Yeah, I mean, that's exactly it. I, I do think the point of playing the starters more was to avoid the slow start because that 16 to 10 loss to the Patriots in Week 1 last season was catastrophic for the Bengals. Like, it was the beginning of a 4 and 8 start and by the time they got their act together and won five straight at the end of the season, too late. So, yeah, I mean, like, that's why we were subjected to seeing Joe Burrow getting rag dolled by the Washington Commanders pass rush and why we were terrified, like, get Joe Burrow out of there. But, yeah, I mean, the question is whether the offensive line and defense for the Bengals are going to be good enough. We'll see, like, seemingly soft matchup to start the season, but they have to go to Cleveland and hear it from the Dog pound. Not, not an easy thing to do, a divisional game on the road against a hostile crowd. We'll see. Like, I, I think four and a half is a pretty good line.
Dbro
The other thing I'll say too, can we honestly say, like, arguably this is the healthiest offseason the Joe Burrows had.
Fitz
Yes.
Dbro
So, you know, camp and what have you, preseason, all the things. Like, they're kind of lining up here for me.
Ryan Warmley
D Row, obviously, like, we know everybody. We're starting in the Bengals. It's Joe Burrow, it's Jamar Chase, it's T. Higginson, it's Chase Brown. And you're pretty much not messing with anybody else. So they're, they're going to be really easy on the show. Literally every week. We're going to know what we're doing with them, the Brown side. I'm curious, is Dylan Sampson somebody you're starting in week one?
Dbro
No. I mean, you have to be like in a 14 teamer to consider him as a flex. Like, we just, it comes down to, like, there's so many parts like, and if people were reading the primer, there's so many Players like where you get deeper down the depth charts of guys like wide receiver threes where it's like I don't know what their snapshare or running backs were. Like I don't know what their snapshares look like this week. Like where you can't confidently plug them in any lineup.
Ryan Warmley
Game number four, Dolphins at Colts. Fitz, who are the pass catchers worth starting for Indianapolis now that Daniel Jones is officially the quarterback?
Fitz
Tyler Warren. That's it.
Dbro
I thought he froze for a second.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, it wouldn't be unheard of for Fitz's Internet to go out. So I did have the same thought. But no, he's making a point here that it's only Tyler. Where is Warren ranked amongst tight ends for you?
Fitz
Tight end nine. Kind of wait, see a little bit. But you know I, yeah, I'm excited about him. He played pretty much every snap with the starters in the preseason and all reports were great. And this was a guy who is just. I mean he is a demon after the catch and I can't wait to see what it looks like. But you know, I think he's going to totally gut the value of Josh Downs for fantasy. Like those short area targets are like. He is a big problem for Josh Downs target volume. I think he's going to hurt Michael Pittman less, but I still don't really want to play Michael Pittman in week one.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I was going to ask if, if there is a second, I was going to assume it might have been Pittman. D row any interest in Pittman or, or downs if you disagree with.
Dbro
With Fitz I think it's downs and, and, and Warren for me I, I do have concerns about Pittman just being a stylistic fit with Daniel Jones. Like talking about archetype of wide receiver and stuff like that. Daniel Jones is not throwing into tight windows. He's not throwing back shoulder balls. Like it's gotta be like easy separation scheme stuff like make it easy for him. And I think that's where downs and both Tyler Warren both make a ton of sense. And I think both these guys I'd feel fine flexing. I mean like you know, starting Talawarn. I'm with Fitzy. I've got him a tight end 9. So as a TE1 Miami was horrible against tight ends last year. 12th most receiving yards and fantasy points per game. You're also talking about like to Fitzy's point demon after the catch. That defense allowed the 10th most missed tackles last year. So Warren, it's like just give him layup targets and Let him just go, bully dudes. But to the point about Downs, a lot of too high coverage he's probably going to see against too high. Last year, downs had a 32% target per route run rate. Their nickel corner. Again, a lot of defenses this year for various NFL teams. Trust trusting a lot of converted safeties to play nickel out the gate here in week one. Like, Miami's gonna start Jason Marshall Jr. Which in his final collegiate season gave up a 119 pass rating and coverage. So I think Downs and Warren are both good.
Fitz
Downs had a 32% target per run rate when he was playing with Will Mallory and Mo Ali Cox, not with Ty Warren. D, bro.
Dbro
I mean. Yeah, well, Pittman's not getting a lot of targets. I gotta go somewhere. Warren ain't getting 15 a week.
Ryan Warmley
We obviously have a full slate to get through, so I don't want to go along in this, but I do want to sneak in. Just a very quick question on the Dolphin side that I didn't prepare you guys for. I feel like the vibes have been really bad in terms of just the way people have been talking about Miami all summer. I've heard a lot of, like, national, like, not fantasy shows, but NFL shows, talking about them as, like, a dark horse to have the worst record in football this year. But it feels like, like, at the beginning of the season, at least, the. You know, they're generally healthy, at least healthier than they'll be later in the season or maybe. Or we may be overrating the bad vibes in Miami, and, like, this is a team that usually does play very well when the weather is warm and, you know, they can take advantage of their speed. So, like, is it possible that they actually do provide a lot of fantasy production fits early in the year and.
Fitz
In this matchup, I mean, fantasy production, maybe, but as far as, like, the bad vibes, like, I. I bet on football for fun and do it with, you know, pretty modest amounts of money. And, you know, I bet under eight and a half wins for the dolphins. And minus 130 with that is one of the more uncomfortable amounts of money I've ever bet in my life. Like, that's how certain I feel about that. So, yeah, I think they're going to be pretty bad this year.
Dbro
DBRA bad vibes are real, man. Like, this team could be a total dumpster fire. Like, I. I'm worried about, like, just the wheels coming off. Like, if this is a team where we're at, like, week seven, week eight, and Mike McDaniel has been fired because the team is off to a horrible start. Tyreek is up to his same stuff. Heck, maybe he pulls off a jersey and go full goes full ab. We still feeling good about that team now in fantasy for the rest of the season? Probably not.
Ryan Warmley
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Fitz
I'll go big for Ted Arrow McMillan, 10 or more. No, Adam Thielen, he was traded away. Jalen Coker hurts Xavier Leggette objectively bad last year. 1.19 yards per route run. I think McMillan is just going to be a target hog early this year. Hunter, tougher call. I'll. I'll say six or seven is kind of the median guess.
Ryan Warmley
D ro I'm assuming your target for Tedev McMillan is going to be really low now that I have him ranked higher than you in our.
Dbro
I saw that. I saw getting tagged in that post last night.
Ryan Warmley
I saw no response from. You're scared to compete here about.
Dbro
I was too busy prepping for this show, sir. Priorities. Priorities. But dude, tell. Tell me if I'm wrong on this. What's to stop Ted McMillan from coming out and having a pukinaku a week one where he gets 15 targets like no Jalen Coker, Xavier Leggett, like he is who he is at this point in his career. Maybe there's more this year, more meat on the bone. But like J.T. sanders, he's going to be splitting routes with Tommy Trimble. Hunter Renfro, is he really going to draw a ton of targets like Ted Roman Millen could get 12 to 15 targets in this game and nobody should be surprised about it. Like, the matchup is fantastic. I'm not worried about Jerrion Jones. I'm not worried about Tyson Campbell on the outside. I'm not worried about a secondary that gave up the fourth highest PBR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. So tet wheels up, double digit, lock it in. I think get a high as. As high as 15 in this game. And for Travis Hunter, I'll go with Fitzy here. I think somewhere in that six to eight bucket, just because of. I. I do think he's gonna be a full time wide receiver. But the matchup I don't think is as great as everybody thinks on paper. Chow Smith Wade is taking over as their slot corner this year. That dude was really good in the limited sample that we got last year. 2nd lowest pass rating, 14th lowest yards per snap amongst 42 playing slot corners. So Hunter I think will get a decent amount of volume, but it's not like one of those situations where he's going to get anything close to Tedro.
Ryan Warmley
McMillan maybe sneaky like shootout potential in this game. Honestly, just giving defenses and what I expect out of the offenses and like, so we could get a ton of targets for both these guys. But, but McMillan especially like that's the reason I have him as a top 12 receiver in my season long rankings is because like, like this is gonna be the case every week, right, like until somebody else steps up or Coker gets healthy and takes a step forward. Like he is going to get as many targets as he can handle and I am a believer enough in the talent that he can handle them. So I just don't see any reason why like the defense is bad so they're gonna have to throw a ton. You know, we've talked before all summer how I'm a believer that what we saw in the second half from Bryce Young was real enough for him to support a guy like, like McMillan. So I'm really, really bullish on him this year and I'm bullish on him right away in week one. So where do you actually have him ranked, by the way? McMillan.
Dbro
I was going to ask you guys. I have a wide receiver, 14, which might sound crazy. Fitzy, were you at 16? Okay. Oh, okay, good. I'm not insane. Then I was putting up rankings and I was like, I keep moving him up, moving them up, moving them up. I'm like, I might be getting close to insanity territory, but it's really nice to hear Fitz. He has in top 17 draft rankings.
Fitz
And week one rankings. Wide receiver 16.
Dbro
Love it. Love it.
Ryan Warmley
All right, let's go to game number six, Raiders at Patriots. I want to ask you guys about kind of comparing two guys at different positions. Who has a higher positional finish in week one? Ashton Genty @ running back or Drake May at quarterback. So Genti obviously was going higher in drafts among his position, but it's harder to finish higher at running back because there's just, you know, more options available. Quarterback, there are fewer names to be going against. So I thought it was an interesting kind of head to head. They're roughly ranked in similar ranges amongst their positions for week one, specifically in the expert consensus rankings, which by the way, if I ever reference those, we are talking half PPR for those. I forget if I said that already, but in half PPR on the genty side. So Drake May at quarterback. Ash and gentee running back Deebro who finishes higher.
Dbro
I don't want to steal Fitzy's thunder, but I think it's definitely going to be Drake May this week. Okay, dude, I think the Patriots are going to absolutely eviscerate the Raiders this week.
Ryan Warmley
Really?
Dbro
I bet the over on their total of their points. I bet the over on Drake May passing touchdowns at one and a half. I got plus money on that. The only thing that could crush Drake May is if the game script goes sideways. Like, they get a defensive touchdown, they run two in. He's not part of that. But I think Drake May could absolutely crush this week. Like, dude, the Raiders have nobody on defense outside of Max Crosby. Like Eric Stokes. Sorry if it's a former Packer. Not worried about him. Caillou Kelly, not worried about him. The Raiders, again, like, outside of Max Crosby, who are you worried about, dude? Like, they had the 12th lowest pressure rate last year. That's going to get worse this year. Their. Their secondary last year gave up the 14th most passing yards, the fifth most passing touchdowns last year. Can we also say those numbers are going to be worse this year? And this isn't me hating on Genty. I think he's going to get a ton of volume. He might get checkdowns for days and make me look stupid on this call if game script goes sideways. But this, I think the Patriots are going to put up a ton of points out of week one and everybody's going to be talking about them after this game.
Ryan Warmley
Well, let me ask you this then as sort of a second question here. Which rookie running back do you like better in this game? If you think the Patriots are going to smash, would you rather play Henderson the Genti too?
Dbro
No, I mean, I'm playing Genti for the volume. I'm not getting that cute with it. But I am going to be ranking wherever consensus is on Trayvon Henderson. I'm ranking him and Mondre above consensus because I think both of them might get in the end zone even on a limited touch volume. Like, like go look at their depth chart. Their defensive line is terrible outside of Crosby. Like, Hindo might pop like two huge runs in this game and nobody should be shocked.
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, what do you think? Genti at running back or May at quarterback?
Fitz
Jeremy Chin's a pretty good defender for the Raiders. Dbrow.
Dbro
Oh, good. They got two. Two?
Fitz
Yeah, I mean, like. So for what it's worth, Matt Peralt, our primary betting pros host, he is a Patriots fan and he likes the Raiders in that game.
Dbro
Dbro oh that's that's a self hating Patriots.
Fitz
It could be. It could be.
Dbro
That's all that is.
Fitz
So I have I've as much as I like May I've Genti ranked RB6 and May QB10 this week. So I have to say Genty I think the Raiders are going to work Genty hard against a New England defense that was pretty bad against the run last year. Like the Patriots gave up third most rushing yards to running backs. We know Raiders offensive coordinator Chip Kelly likes to push pace and if Genty gets into a rhythm like he could have a big day. This dude is special. We I forget which show was on. Like I if there is a Mount Rushmore for running back prospects of the last 10 years, Genti is on it along with B John Robinson, Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott. Apologies to Jameer Gibbs no, I agree.
Ryan Warmley
Let Autopilot manage your fantasy football lineup automatically so you never have to worry about last minute changes, auto swap inactive players and ensure your lineup is always optimized even when you can't be online. By the way, this is especially helpful when we get to the time of year with the London games, especially if you're on the west coast and there's, you know, last minute inactives. We had an Alvin Camara scenario like that Autopilot using managers were saved. In that scenario you can be saved to take control with the flexibility to approve lineup changes via email or just let Autopilot handle everything. Stay ahead with my Playbook Autopilot available now for Fantasy Pros Premium subscribers@FantasyPros.com MyPlayBook or on the Fantasy Pros app. Try Premium for free right now by claiming your three day trial of Fantasy Pros Premium at FantasyProse.com Premium.
Matt Jones
Hey, this is Matt Jones, I'm Drew Franklin and this is NFL Cover Zero. We think NFL coverage should be in informative and entertaining and twice a week that is exactly what you're going to get. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different.
Dbro
Did you see the Colts pretzel?
Matt Jones
That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that?
Dbro
Looks like something that should not be sold.
Matt Jones
Oh my. So that was my other big Colts takeaway. They sold that?
Fitz
Yes.
Matt Jones
Might want to go back at the Colts stadium.
Dbro
Yeah, I might want to go back to the drawing board on that.
Matt Jones
Yeah, I thought the shape we have with Pretzels was working pretty well.
Dbro
It's worked for generations.
Matt Jones
We're just here trying to enjoy it. We hope you all will join us throughout the year. And let's go. I hope I'm as youthful as Pete.
Dbro
Carroll is at his age.
Matt Jones
He's a young 73. He is a young 73. He is spry, I would say.
Dbro
I wouldn't fight him.
Matt Jones
I would listen NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
Dbro
I'm Dan, he's Ty.
Matt Jones
Hello.
Dbro
And we're the Solid Verbal college football podcast. College football season is here and you know what that means. Your team is going to break your heart three times, probably before Halloween. Uh huh. But fear not, the Solid Verbal will be right there with you through every soul crushing loss and impossible comeback. Join us all season long, all year long, as we ride the rollercoaster of this ridiculous sport. Whether you're a diehard fan or a casual observer, we'll help you make sense of all the chaos and of course, celebrate the madness. Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else, and all the emotional support you need as a college football fan. We don't just love college football, Ty, we live it. Listen to the Solid Verbal college football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Greg Rosenthal
Football is back. That's right. The new NFL season is here. And you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 60. This is a show for sickos like me. NFL Daily is your kind of show. It's in the name NFL Daily. You'll have fresh content in your feed all season long. Myself, Greg Rosenthal and an all star cast of co hosts will preview and recap every game all season long. Josh Allen, coming off an MVP season.
Dbro
And now lateral to Allen and reaching for the pylon. Are you kidding me? It's a touchdown.
Matt Jones
Have you ever seen that one before?
Greg Rosenthal
Rookies making a name for themselves.
Dbro
Bulldozer. He is bouncing off defenders and dragged down.
Greg Rosenthal
And of course, the Eagles trying to win another Lombardi.
Ryan Warmley
What a game.
Dbro
What a season. What a team.
Ryan Warmley
Eagles fans savor it and rejoice.
Greg Rosenthal
Listen to NFL daily on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Ryan Warmley
All right, guys, next game. Here we've got Cardinals at Saints True or false. After this game, we will be happy with the way the Cardinals utilized Marvin Harrison Jr. Debra, you can go first.
Dbro
False. Like be emphatically false.
Ryan Warmley
Emphatic false.
Dbro
Okay, I. I know that I'm not telling you. The Saints are going to be a good team. I'm not telling you this defense is amazing. What I will say is this coverage structure is Kyler and Marvin Harrison junior's kryptonite. Last year like Too High, they were both not great against and a lot of this is more. This is much more emphatically laid at the feet of Kyler Murray. But that impacts Marvin Harrison Jr because if Kyler is not going to play great because it's really just preventing the deep balls, preventing the the off schedule stuff like New Orleans ran Too high at the 8th highest rate. Brandon Staley coming in as their DC is going to keep that in house. I think that's our is they're going to run that back this year. And Marvin Harrison Jr. Against Too High last year had an 18.6% target share. Nothing has changed in that wide receiver room. Drew Petsing, we're still hoping he learns how to utilize Marvin Harrison Jr. Properly. He only had an 18.6% target share against too high and 1.53 yards per out run. So I don't look at this as being a Marvin Harrison Jr. Type of game. I look at this as being a monster game for Trey McBride and James Conner.
Ryan Warmley
That's.
Fitz
I'm going to give this one a reluctant true, but it's like 5050 man. And like if the Cardinals continue to like foolishly use Marvin Harrison as a vertical receiver, then yeah, like. Cause too high is like too high throttles the vertical receivers. But like you know that Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon and offensive coordinator Drew Petzig spent a lot of time in the off season trying to figure out ways to get Harrison going. Like that is a mandate for this organization. You cannot have another season where the number four pick in the draft is putting up Mohammed Sanu numbers. All right. Okay. Well, maybe it wasn't that bad, but.
Dbro
No, I mean, you're not wrong. No, no, no, no, no, you're not wrong. You're not wrong.
Fitz
You get the idea like it is a priority for that team to jumpstart Marvin Harrison Jr. This year. But on the other hand, like maybe Harrison is just never going to click with Kyler Murray. Kyler doesn't throw to the middle of the field very often and that's where Harrison does some of his best work. Or at least he did at Ohio State. Just seemed like there was not much chemistry between Kyler and Harrison last year and maybe that's an ongoing problem.
Ryan Warmley
Steelers at jets the total on this game at hard rock bet is 39, which is the lowest of the week by a wide margin. Despite the kind of fun double quarterback revenge game narrative, if I force you guys to pick one player in this matchup that you want to be significantly above consensus on and maybe I'm not forcing you, maybe you do have it ranked this way. I don't know. I didn't actually look. But if you had to pick one to be significantly above consensus on, who would it be fit?
Fitz
This game is definitely going to be a taffy poll. But there is one guy I like above consensus. Jalen Warren, like his week one ECR is running back 27. But all indications from Mike Tomlin and from the preseason usage we saw are that Jalen Warren is the clear lead back in Pittsburgh going into week one. And I don't think think rankers have really come to grips with that. So Warren is going to outkick his ECR this week and it's just like Debro. I know Caleb Johnson is your guy, but we also know that Arthur Smith, you know, if, if Arthur Smith can murder the rookie year value of Bijan Robinson, like he can certainly do it to Caleb Johnson too.
Dbro
You're not wrong. Fancy.
Ryan Warmley
You're not wrong.
Dbro
I hate it, but you're not wrong.
Ryan Warmley
Well, deeper. What do you think?
Dbro
I'm going to go further down the list here and I'm looking at just this matchup on paper and I think this lines up really well and I've already bet the over for his receiving yardage prop at Hard Rock bed. It's at 19 and a half. You can get minus 115 on this Mason Taylor dude. I think Mason Taylor is going to get a ton of targets this week. Just, just let's zoom out a little bit. Just straight up, just common sense talk here. Pittsburgh Steelers freaking pass defense. Do you think Justin Fields needs to be testing or stressing or forcing the ball to Garrett Wilson versus Jalen Ramsey, Joey Porter Jr. Or Darius Slay? So regardless of wherever they move Garrett Wilson this week, he's getting a tough corner matchup. And you look at the defensive matchup for this dude, Pittsburgh gave it the 10th most fantasy points per game and the 11th most receiving arts to tight ends. The way you avoid those corners is you feed Mason Taylor a ton of targets this week. So I'm going with Mason Taylor on this.
Ryan Warmley
It's kind of like a useless one to pick because he's 3% rostered. I actually, I think Roman Wilson is going to finish higher than his. I mean he's wide receiver 86. So like I don't that's I mean starting Roman Wilson, when you have he.
Dbro
Catches one pass and he out kicks that rank. Wow.
Ryan Warmley
But I'm saying if, if I had to force myself to pick one, that's somebody because I just don't want to pick anybody else. That's what I expected.
Fitz
Yeah.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. Really, really ugly game. Who do you guys think win this one?
Dbro
I think it's gonna be the Steelers just off their defense. I, I'm with. I think this game's gonna be a rock fight. I bet the under on the total. It's gonna be nasty.
Ryan Warmley
I, I drafted in leagues where I didn't get the guys that the defenses I really wanted. But I, you know, I always take the, I take defense after I draft a kicker if I'm in the league with both because I just know I'm gonna stream the defense like that is literally my last pick. I took the jets in a few places just because they were available and I think like, I think both teams are bad. It's gonna be an ugly, low scoring game, in my opinion. Steelers are laying two.
Dbro
This is, this is like a 14 to 14 to three kind of game. A 14, you know, like 10 kind of.
Fitz
I'm looking forward to that game in a perverse sort of way.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, you're like, it's like the sicko. Like you're, you're. We're back. Like football is back now. That's so ugly.
Dbro
It's beautiful.
Ryan Warmley
It should be a Thursday night game. That's how ugly it is.
Dbro
No. Yes. This feels like a Jaguars Tennessee Thursday.
Ryan Warmley
Night or should be an AFC South.
Dbro
Do we have to watch this? Like, seriously?
Ryan Warmley
Well, you don't because thankfully it's on Red Zone, so you don't really have to watch it because I'm sure, I'm sure they're not going to show up on Red Zone at all. If you want a chance to win a signed Jamar Chase Bengals jersey for free courtesy of our friends@pristineauction.com all you need to do is head to fantasypros.com contest, complete the form and either download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review for the podcast or follow us on X Instagram or Tik Tok at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive. We will be announcing a winner right here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. All right, guys, last game in the early slate Giants at Commanders, how many running backs in this matchup are we willing to start as at least a flex in week one? Because there's a lot of different names that you could throw out here, but none of them are like surefire Mustart studs. So I'm curious how many are at least willing to start in that flex range. D, bro, you can go first on this one.
Dbro
I mean, depending. Probably nobody, but I think there's two guys that I would roll with depending on it. Like Tyrone Tracy. Just because the volume, although the matchup is horrible for him, I do think that he's gonna get but, you know, 60% of the the work or 60% of the snaps at the gate considering Cam's gottaboo missed a lot of time with a hamstring injury. So just from a volume perspective, I get it and I'll, you know, I'll run Bill Jacori Crosby Merit out there in some only because look like I. I do not care where he's at on the dev chart. I think it's so hilariously goofy that on social media, the same people that will tweet, oh, Jacquari Cross Emeritus RB3 on the depth chart, but they won't tweet that Trayvon Henderson was RB. Excuse me, RB4. But they won't tweet that Travion Henderson was RB3 on his respective depth charts because the bags are too packed with Trayvon Anderson. Oh, that must be garbage. Blah, blah, blah. It's like you're talking about both sides of your mouth, man. So I think Bill is going to be the. The guy that leads the backfield. It gets the goal line carries this week. Maybe that blows up in my face, but I'll. I'll flex him in in certain leagues where I need it.
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, what do you think? For both sides, how many running backs are you willing to consider?
Fitz
I mean, I am starting Tyrone Tracy on a team where I kind of went with a 0 RB build and I'm starting Austin Eckler on a team in a deep have to start like three flex guys. But ideally you don't have to start any of these guys because it's week one and there are no buys and fantasy teams are pretty healthy for the most part.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. All right, let's move off that game to the Sunday late slate. Titans at Bra. Excuse me, Titans at Broncos. We generally love Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard at cost this season. Even Cam Ward, I felt like, was a really interesting later target in super flex leagues, but it's Ward's first ever Game going up against possibly the best defense in the NFL. Some, some, you know, people do have it ranked that way. Should we be looking to sit all three of those guys? If we can. Debro?
Dbro
Yes, you, you, if you can. You should. Like, Pollard's a volume bet. I understand if you got a roll with him as a flex or an RB2, depending on your builds. I'm not telling you to feel great about it. This game is going to be. Again, this is another. I think this game could be quietly, like a nasty game. Like, Ridley is going to go into the shadow realm. Patrick Certain is going to shut him down. Dude like, Certain fought Shadowed seven times last year against a laundry list of who's who in the NFL. Like DK Metcalf, Jamar Chase, Mike Evans, George Pickens, DeAndre Hopkins, Jerry Judy, and Garrett Wilson. He followed them on 60 to 90, 96% of their routes. And none of those receivers, none of them eclipsed 54 receiving yards in his coverage. So. So Calvin Ridley, I'm burying you in ranks this week, sir. Pollard. It's a volume bet.
Ryan Warmley
Only fits.
Fitz
I mean, I want to play Pollard. Like, when I rank running backs, I weigh projected volume more than I weigh matchup. And yeah, Denver is a tough matchup with Taije Spears on ir. Though Tony Pollard is in for some heavy touch volume this week especially. You're not wrong, especially since the Titans are not going to want to let Cam ward drop back 40 times against that nasty Denver pass rush in his NFL debut. Like, Denver's pass rush is seriously wicked and like, they're going to want to run the ball to just counter that. So yeah, I mean, I might have Ridley ranked too high. I've got him as like a low end wide receiver. 3. Like, certain is definitely a matchup to be avoided. But you know, on the other hand, I could see Ridley getting eight to 10 targets. Like, I don't think the target efficiency is going to be great, but I think if you're in a pinch, you could play him.
Dbro
If, if ward feeds him 8 to 10 targets, certain is picking him off at least once.
Ryan Warmley
I feel like, like even a guy like Pollard, if he's gonna get the volume, Like, I don't think he's gonna score. Like, I just feel like they're gonna put Ward in a blender and there's not gonna be any touchdowns scored or like maybe one fluke one. And I'm not gonna bet on on any one of these guys to get it. But depending on your build, you might not really have a better Option. So it's not like, you know, it's.
Dbro
A decent volume bet. But the matchup.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah.
Dbro
You know, so I mean, I get it.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. Let's go to game 11.49ers at Seahawks. Fitz, I'll start with you on this one. With Juwan Jennings back in practicing, are we going to start him right away in week one? How wide is the gap between Jennings and Pearsall in your week one rankings?
Fitz
So the gap for me, I have Pierce all ranked wide receiver 35, Jennings wide receiver 42. I don't want to play Jennings this week. Like, aside from the layoff and the, the bad vibes with him and the contract impasse, it's just a really tough matchup. Like the 49ers are on the road against Seattle and the Seahawks have a really good pair of cornerbacks in Devon Witherspoon and Reek Wolin.
Ryan Warmley
Dbra.
Dbro
I think there's gonna be like, I'm worried about the Seattle defense. I, I do have a little more faith in the 49ers. Like I've got Pierce solid wide receiver 25 and Jennings at 29. This is assuming and making assumptions that Jennings gonna play like a full time snapshare, which I, you know, I think the con, the calf stuff was a lot of contract related stuff because magically he's fully back in practice and stuff. And you know, this being a wide receiver that he's been in this system for years, so it's not like he's losing a lot of like the continuity and things like that with the quarterback and the system and stuff like that. So I think both of them are wide receiver threes. I don't love the matchup. I will say like with the corners, I will say that, that they quietly did Give up the 9th most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers last year. So I. It's not saying like on paper like I don't want to challenge Reek Woolen and Josh Job on the outside, but this is a 49ers offense. They are going to get volume and they quietly. Did you know they were had by perimeter wide receivers last year despite the.
Ryan Warmley
Talent we can move off this matchup. I thought it was a weirdly difficult matchup to come up with interesting questions about it. I feel like both teams like outside of the Juwan Jennings like injury sort of, you know, element. I feel like both teams, it's pretty obvious what who you want to start and who is not. You're not interested in starting. I do think like both these defenses could actually end up being really good this year like Salah back in San Francisco. I think the Seahawks could be like a top three defense this year. Mike McDonald, like year two. I'm really bullish on the defense, but the guys that you want to start are pretty clear I think. So we'll move off this one. Lions at packers this would like be the game of the week if not for Bill's Ravens. So I do want to ask you guys who you think is going to win this game, but we'll end with that. First I want to hit on the fantasy side. We generally ranked the Lions best players kind of the same way we did when Ben Johnson was in town in terms of the draft rankings. Like we weren't expecting too deep of a fall off. It felt like in the expert consensus rankings. But with Johnson gone, do you expect not from the season long perspective, but from the Week 1 perspective this offense to maybe take a little while to gel under a new play caller and play designer or do you think we should be ranking their guys aggressively or at least as we would as normal right away in week one fits.
Fitz
So for week one I'm ranking the Lions running backs pretty normally. Like I think Detroit will try to get the running game going to keep the Micah Parsons led Green Bay pass rush from taking over the game. And you know, to get Micah Parsons, the Packers had to trade away Kenny Clark, their defensive tackle who was probably their best in interior run stuffer the last couple of years. So maybe it's a better game for David Montgomery than some people expect. But I'm ranking all the components of the Detroit passing game pretty conservatively. I think I'm behind ECR on all of Jared Goff, Amon Ross, St. Brown, Jameson Williams and maybe Sam LaPorta too.
Dbro
Debra, I, I actually think the Lions are going to take to the air in this game. I just look at the Green Bay secondary and Fitzy, I know we've talked about this on other shows. Like I just, I don't know what you'd be scared about like looking at their secondary like outside of the pass rush and this is making assumptions like I think the Lions we could talk about their, their offensive line is not what it was last year. I still think it's good enough. I don't even know if we see because Parsons is dealing with the back injury. Fitzy, do you think he's gonna be a full time snap player? Do you think he's just gonna be on rush downs this week like missing camp, missing training camp and the back issue like, like I kind of look at him as being a part time player out the gate. But do you, I mean, how do you. How are you?
Fitz
No, I agree with you on that. I don't think he plays a full compliment of snaps.
Dbro
Yeah. And, and I think that helps Detroit. But even losing Kenny Clark. Kenny Clark was not great last year. Like his run defense grade that they've dropped, he's actually fallen off the map in the last four years from run defense grades. Like he hasn't crested a 62 grade for PFF stuff in run defense. And I know grades aren't everything, but like even like all the football heads, like film watchers will tell you the same thing. Like Green Bay, outside of Kenny Clark, their run defense was elite last year. Like they gave up the third fewest rushing yards per game and the second lowest missed tackle rate. So I honestly don't look at losing Kenny Clark as like a really big impact as much as some. I think it's gonna be a harder game for David Montgomery. I think that Jared Goff and the Lions should come out, test this secondary early, often and just light it up, dude. Like, I'm not worried about Keyshawn Nixon. I'm not worried about Nate Hobbs. I'm not worried about whoever they're going to run out as the nickel. Like I, I'm just not like, I think this is a really good spot for Detroit to take to the air and really, I think this game could shoot out. If it does, Lions are just having their way through the air.
Ryan Warmley
Like I said, probably the game of the week. Besides, Ravens, Bills, packers are laying two and a half at home on Hard Rock. Bet. Bet. Which side are you taking? D, bro.
Dbro
I've already bet the Detroit money line. It's plus money. I, I don't know how we look. Like, I just don't understand why, why the. I get the fact that the packers are at home, but I don't understand. Looking at this matchup, I feel like losing the coordinators and all that kind of stuff is really carrying a lot of the debt. Like it for the betting lines and stuff like that. Like, I think the Lions are going to win this and I think honestly they should be favored in this.
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, do you agree? I mean obviously you have an emotional attachment to this game.
Fitz
I do. But over the last three years the Lions are 5 and 1 against the Packers. Like Dan King.
Dbro
Yeah. Like why. Why are the packers favored in this game? Fitzy? Like, I, I don't understand.
Ryan Warmley
It's because they're home and the Excitement.
Fitz
Around but even at home. Yeah, I think it should be closer to a pick em like Dan Campbell just seems to have Matt LaFleur's number right now. So I, I too have bet the Lions in this game. Although I took the points rather than.
Dbro
Going money line A plus money line for the Lions. I couldn't stay away, man. Couldn't stay away.
Ryan Warmley
Last game in the Sunday late slate is Texans at rams. How will C.J. stroud and the Texans offense look in their first game with a new play collar and a somewhat different, let's not say improved yet somewhat different looking offensive line?
Dbro
Dbro I think it's gonna look good, man. You look at the Rams secondary, which is pretty much largely intact from what they did last year and you know, going through all the week one stuff, it's like, okay, what changed in the off season? Do they get new corners, they get a new DC and all that kind of stuff. The Rams are just kind of running it back, dude. And looking at that like we're discussing a past defense that weeks 10 through 18 last year gave it the fourth highest success rate per drop back, six highest EPA per drop back and the 11th most passing touchdown. So like am I worried about the Rams pass rush? Yeah, to an extent. I, I still, I'm not very worried about their corner. So I think Stroud's gonna look good, man. I think you're gonna see a big game from multiple receivers now, whether that's Jaden Higgins or hey, maybe happy birthday to Jalen Noel. Maybe he gets on the field because Christian Kirk is dealing with a hamstring injury. But I think it's gonna be a good game for Stroud. I do.
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, what do you think? You. You. I feel like, and maybe this is just anecdotal, I don't, I didn't go back and check, but I feel like you have been the analyst that is most kind of like not faded the Texans, but been just wary of like are we sure the offensive line really improved enough to help these guys get to where we want to see them go. How do you feel about it in this first matchup?
Fitz
Spot on Worm. I think the Houston offensive line is still a major problem and you know, good luck to the Texans trying to keep Jared verse out of C.J. stroud's face. Like, I just, I don't know how well the Texans are going to be able to run the ball with some combination of Nick Chubb, Damian Pierce, Woody Marks like the under in Texans. Rams is my favorite bet of the week. Oh yeah.
Ryan Warmley
What's the line that?
Fitz
It's 43 and a half, I believe.
Ryan Warmley
Okay. Yeah. I mean, not only the offensive line on that side, but like, the Texas defense should be really good this year. And, you know, Stafford, you know, some degree of back issue here coming into the season.
Dbro
Yeah, that, that, that's, that's the worry where I think the under could hit. Like, Stafford takes a big shot in this game and he goes out like, I'm not. But I don't want to see that happen. And I'm not projecting injuries. I want to be very, very clear about that.
Fitz
Right.
Dbro
I don't feel good about his back.
Fitz
A quarterback who can't move with Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter steaming in off the edges. Like, this is going to be. I think this is going to be a really low scoring game.
Dbro
Could be, yeah.
Ryan Warmley
I mean, it's the same thing with like, Tua. Like, nobody wants to see him take another concussion. But like, you, you have to think about it in the back of your mind when you're kind of projecting out a game. We're not projecting an injury there. Same thing with Stafford's back. Like, nobody wants to see his back, you know, messed up. And we, we are not going to project it, but it is a possibility that you have to be aware of, at least. Let's get to Sunday night football. Ravens at Bills, possibly the game of the year already here in week one. I hate that this game is in week one, by the way. This would be a great, like, early November, late October, Sunday night football game. I don't, I don't want this in week one, but the schedule they came up with. Is there anybody that you guys would actually fade in this one or is this an obvious, like, start everyone scenario? Debra, I see you nodding your heads. We'll go to you first.
Dbro
This is a fade. A lot of players. Fitz, he's talking about his favorite underbed of the week. I ran, I sprinted really at the under at 50 and a half. Right now it's minus 110 at Hard Rock.
Ryan Warmley
Bet.
Dbro
Yeah. Like, just, just line all this up. Okay. Take, take the fact that Josh Allen and Lamar are playing in this game, which, by the way, neither one of them played in the freaking preseason. Neither one of these teams ran their starters a bunch in the preseason. We talk about rust and teams coming out rusty in week one, but we're expecting that this game is going to shoot out with a 50 and a half freaking total. And, but, but, and also, we haven't even talked about both of these teams have Good. If not, we could talk about elite tier defenses, but yet we think this game is going to be fireworks and shootout potential and all the things and stuff. I. I'm just not seeing it, man. I think this game's gonna hit the under. You look at James Cook, I'm worried about him. The Ravens Last year, weeks 10 through 18 gave it the fourth use rushing y third lowest explosive run rate. You talk about Zay flowers versus too high coverage. Buffalo's gonna run a ton of that. Their top five in it. Last year he had 1.53 yards per route run, 0.068 first downs per outrun everybody. That's not a math head out there that it's not good at all. Khalil Shakir, now he's gonna face Marlon Humphrey all freaking game against a secondary that gave up the 11th fewest fantasy points per game to slot receivers. No, I don't think this game is going to put up a ton of points. Maybe I am absolutely wrong on this. There's nothing I look at on paper and then you want to stack up narratives. 50 and a half total just feels like window dressing for with the two teams without considering everything else.
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, I'm curious if you agree with D Ro about the elite defenses. I see the case for the Ravens, just what they did in the second half of last year and then adding, you know, Starks and Green with the first two picks in the draft, like there's a. There's a clear case to make for them as an elite defense. I don't really see the case for the Bills. I think they'll be. They're a fine defense. I'm not saying they're going to be terrible, but I don't know if they're on that same level as. As Baltimore's defense. The other thing that I would say is like I felt like the Bills did a good job of running against the Ravens in the playoff game when they were at home. And the Ravens don't have Michael Pierce anymore who was a big key to their run defense last year. They didn't really, I think, do a great job of replacing him. I think the defense is still really good, but I do worry about stopping the run against Buffalo. So what do you think? Do you agree with Debra that this is a case where you're actually open taking the under and fading a lot of the players in this one?
Fitz
No, I mean like I think the Bills defense is probably above average, but elite. I'm not going there. You know, if we, if we could turn back the clock and have this be like prime Joey Bosa and Tredavius white instead of 30 something Joey Bosa and Tradavius White maybe. Yeah, I mean it's a okay defense. Above average. Like I think the Bills are legit super bowl contenders for sure. But yeah, I mean I, I do think the Ravens have, you know, pretty close to an elite defense though. So in this game, like I'm not rushing to get Dalton Kincaid or Rashad Bateman into my lineup, but I think you start all the main characters.
Ryan Warmley
Okay. Diva, what do you think about the. What I mentioned about like Michael Pierce? Because I, I do think there's a chance that if the Ravens have a weakness this year, it's their run defense.
Dbro
It could be now. I think that, you know, there's something to be for continuity's sake, I think like it. Despite what we saw in the playoffs, like I mentioned, like the Ravens run defense was really stinking good the back half of last year. So like losing Michael Pierce, it's like fine. Like you take them out of elite tier status, which the numbers say they were the back half of last year. Take them out of elite tier status. Okay. They're above average. Like I think there's a case to be made. But it's like also the all remaining continuity on that defense outside of Pierce. There's something to be said for that too.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I did want to throw just a second question your way on this one because it's such a big game. Hard Rock Bet has the Ravens minus one in Buffalo. Who wins the game? Either of you, I think.
Dbro
Yep.
Fitz
Ravens have the best roster in the afc.
Dbro
Ravens, dude, their defense is nasty. Like they're secondary. Like you talk about the best starting three corners in the NFL. It's Pittsburgh and Baltimore are both up there in that conversation. Like it's.
Ryan Warmley
I think, I think Buffalo wins the game because they're at home.
Dbro
You're a self hated fan.
Ryan Warmley
It's fine. If they were in Baltimore, I'd pick the Ravens. In Buffalo, I'm picking the Bills. These teams are just so good that, you know, I'm just gonna give the slight edge to home field advantage.
Dbro
It's okay. Homer's gonna homer. I get it.
Ryan Warmley
And the Ravens too. Like a lot of people are saying, oh, they're gonna come out really angry they lost. Like, like because that's a team who ended their last season. They lost to the Chiefs last year when the Chiefs ended their season before like in week one. So we just saw this kind of same narrative play out and they didn't win. It was a really close game. I think this will be a close game. The Ravens are the better roster. I think like actually like maybe even by a wide margin. I think the defense is that much better than Buffalo's that I actually do think the Ravens are clearly the better team.
Dbro
This, this is regular season Ravens and not playoff where Todd Monkin gets goofy and decides he's going to throw the ball a crap ton and get away from what they've done the entire year. So if this is in the play playoffs, probably agree with you, Worm, but it's a regular season.
Ryan Warmley
I did pick DBRO on the Thursday show. We do our touchdown calls contest and I had to pick tight end this week and I, I did pick Mark Andrews because I do think there is a revenge element. They are going to try to get him a touchdown.
Dbro
Yeah, you got, you got to believe that they're, they're going to feature the big man. So I'm trying to get.
Ryan Warmley
If there's an opportunity, they will, they will give it to him.
Dbro
Like this is one of those kind of games where like it's also the playoff implications, things you're doing and stuff like that. You got, you got to kind of get some guys right too because you know you're going to see them again later in the year.
Ryan Warmley
Oh, for sure. Yeah. It's a huge game. Like I said, I wish it wasn't week one, but will be a very fun one. Very nerve wracking Sunday night for me. Let's go to Monday Night Football here to wrap things up. Vikings at Bears. Who has a better week one? Caleb Williams in his first game under Ben Johnson or J.J. mcCarthy in his first game ever in the NFL? I think we know what direction DBRO is going, so I'll go to Fitz first.
Fitz
Yeah, I mean, I'll say J.J. mcCarthy. Like, it's a good bet that J.J. mcCarthy is going to play the way Kevin O' Connell wants him to play. And I don't know if we can say the same thing about Caleb Williams. Like, I want to believe that it will work out this year and Caleb makes a year to leap. I just worry that he is a chronic improv guy and can't stick to the script. And you know that Ben Johnson is a guy who wants his actors to follow the script.
Ryan Warmley
Also know the defenses. You know, just going up against the Vikings, I feel like they could.
Fitz
Flora. Yeah. Flores is gonna.
Ryan Warmley
I know they've tried to improve. They have improved the offensive line, I think more so than at Houston. I do Believe Chicago has improved their offensive line, but I don't know if it's enough against the coordinator and a defense like Flores in Minnesota. So that's, that's a kind of knock against Caleb Dbro. Like, we know you're going with McCarthy.
Dbro
I mean, yeah, but McCarthy's the right answer here too. Like you look at you look. And that's really what I want to lean on here. Like JJ has faced the Brian Flores defense all of camp in the off season. He's just probably like, he's probably not going to do this. But if I was jj, you just walk up to Caleb and just shake his hand and say before the game, good luck. That's all I got for you. Good luck. Because Brian Flores, man, you want to talk about a guy like, we know he's going to heat him up, man. Like the, the, the Minnesota Vikings led the freaking NFL in blitz rate last year. They're probably going to be top three to five again this year. They were sixth in pressure rate. So you're telling me like in a brand new offense, we saw Caleb in the preseason and everybody's oohing and eyeing when he got two step drop ball out, three step drop ball out and like perfectly wide over a wide open wide receivers. You think you're gonna see that in week one Caleb versus the Minnesota Vikings defense and what Brian Flores is about to throw at you, man. So I look at, you know, the secondary for the Vikings, sure you can have some questions that the, the, the amount they're going to blitz him and the pressure they can bring can cover up a lot of sins on the back end. And not to say that their secondary isn't still really stinking good, but I think, I think this game honestly is probably going to be more of a low scoring affair. I think they're going to probably try to ease JJ into this game. I think you're going to see a lot of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason just based off of how the matchup looks. So I think, you know, fantasy wise, NFL wise, JJ's going to outplay Caleb in this game. And I think Caleb could honestly struggle, man. Brian Flores is not going to play around, dude. Like considering what he did in his rookie season and it being a new offense and stuff like that, all these parts and pieces being brand new, you get him off his mark by blitzing the ever loving crap out of him and we know that's gonna happen.
Ryan Warmley
Caleb's ranked higher in ECR. He's QB18, McCarthy's QB21. So they're both, you know, not starters. Unless you're.
Dbro
I'm not shocked by that at all.
Ryan Warmley
Based on the rankings. Where do you actually specifically. We'll wrap up with this. Where do you have them ranked specifically?
Dbro
I've got Caleb ranked at QB21. I'm still trying to figure out where JJ is going to be. He's going to be somewhere in that low to mid QB2 range only because of the matchup this week. And I just, I like other quarterbacks better.
Ryan Warmley
But Fitz, where do you have them ranked?
Fitz
14 for Caleb, 20 for McCarthy. But I think McCarthy will play better than that. I just don't expect heavy volume for McCarthy.
Dbro
Yeah, I think this game's going to hit the under.
Ryan Warmley
Another under. So a lot of unders this week for you deeper.
Dbro
It sounds like week one, baby. Team's got to get, you know, I mean the preseason is basically non existent for all these starters nowadays, you know, and so I. You're going to see low scoring affairs, not like a lot of like high scoring games. And that's just how it goes, man. To start the season.
Ryan Warmley
We'll wrap things up there. Thanks everybody for tuning in. We are very back. That was, you know, fun stepping back into the questions and the Friday show and we've got obviously by the time you're listening to this we hope we will have seen football. So we are like actually back which is just super fun and exciting. So looking forward to doing the show with you guys all season long. Looking forward to everybody in the comments hanging out with us all season long and hopefully you enjoy the show and you know we have a, we have a lot of fun and win some fantasy leagues this year. For Debro and Fitz, I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best, best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
Matt Jones
Hey, this is Matt Jones and I'm Drew Franklin and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining and twice a week. That is exactly what you're going to get listen NFL cover zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
Greg Rosenthal
Football is back. That's right, the new NFL season is here and you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 60. It's in the name NFL Daily so you'll have fresh content in your feed all season long. Join me, Greg Rosenthal and an all star cast of co hosts for previews and recaps of every single game. NFL Daily will keep you up to date with everything you need to know so you can sound smarter than all your friends. Listen to NFL daily on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
Dbro
I'm Dan. He's Ty. Hello and we're the Solid Verbal College Football Podcast. Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else, and all the emotional support you need as a college football fan. Join us all season long as we ride the rollercoaster of this ridiculous sport. Listen to the Solid Verbal College Football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. We don't just love college football, Ty. We live it.
Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast.
Ep. 1690 | Released September 5, 2025
Host: Ryan Warmley
Co-hosts: Pat Fitzmaurice (“Fitz”), Derrick Brown (“Dbro”)
This week’s Friday show is the annual kickoff of FantasyPros’ “Key Questions” format—a lively, wide-ranging roundtable in which Ryan, Fitz, and Dbro tackle one or two of the most pressing fantasy football questions for every Week 1 matchup. Expect deep-dive analysis, strong takes, some friendly roasting, and practical advice for your lineup as the NFL season begins.
Notable Quote:
“If you want to just talk about rookie corners in general... they usually struggle and find their feet.”
— Dbro, 12:12
“This game is not going to put up a ton of points. Maybe I’m wrong, but there’s nothing that says shootout."
— Dbro, 58:08
Dbro on the preseason strain:
“Every single week, it’s like the thing on my back I’m carrying… that primer being done, I feel I can breathe again, boys.” (01:24)
Ryan on standalone NFL Twitter:
“Twitter during a standalone game is like Wild West Saloon times 10. The hot takes are flying… someone’s getting thrown through a window.” (06:28)
Dbro on Drake Maye vs. Raiders:
“The Patriots are going to absolutely eviscerate the Raiders this week.” (30:07)
Dbro on Marvin Harrison Jr.’s role:
“We’re still hoping Drew Petsing learns how to use MHJ. He only had an 18.6% target share against two high. I don’t look at this as a Marvin type of game.” (37:04)
Dbro on Steelers-Jets:
“This is like a 14–10 kind of game—I bet the under. Ugly, rock fight.” (42:42)
Hosts’ parting mood: “We are very back. Looking forward to doing the show with you guys all season long, and winning some fantasy leagues this year.” (Ryan Warmley, 67:37)