FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Super Bowl LX Best Bets (Ep. 1953)

Date: February 6, 2026
Hosts: Joey P. (Joe Pisapia) & Andrew Erickson

Episode Overview

This Super Bowl week episode of BettingPros NFL dives deep into the best bets for Super Bowl LX (60), pitting the New England Patriots against the Seattle Seahawks. Joey P. and Andrew Erickson set aside potential accusations of homerism to analyze the matchup critically, focusing on defenses, coaching matchups, betting values, and key props. The episode’s tone is lively, analytical, and often tongue-in-cheek, with the hosts peppering in humor while breaking down their top picks and betting strategies.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. A Defensive Showdown: Patriots vs. Seahawks

• Defensive Stats Breakdown (00:54–04:00)

  • Both teams’ defenses get their due—New England’s defense, Joey argues, is equally worthy of praise alongside Seattle’s.
  • Seahawks: Allowed 16 or fewer points in 6 of last 8 games. 6th-best by yards allowed, lowest in NFL at 17.2 points per game.
  • Patriots: Allowed 16 or fewer points in 5 straight games, 8th-best by yards, 4th in points allowed (18.8).

  "This is about winning. Not about who wins. It's about us winning. That's what it is. It's us against the books." — Joey P. (01:11)

2. The Total: Why the Under is a Popular Pick

• Both Hosts Lean Under 45.5 (02:49–04:55)

  • Joey predicts a tight 24–20 final score, scraping just under.
  • Andrew cites two defensive-minded coaches (Mike McDonald, Mike Vrabel) setting a conservative early tone, and both teams' recent low-scoring outputs.

  "I like the under and you like the under in the game … if you do think both of these defenses prevail here, look, Seattle is the fourth straight top-10 defense the Patriots have faced in the postseason." — Andrew Erickson (02:50)

  • Both quarterbacks' injuries (real or exaggerated) and recent offensive struggles further sway projections toward the under.

3. Against the Spread: Patriots +4.5

• Hosts Lean Patriots with the Points (06:40–09:33)

  • Joey feels Patriots have the edge in coaching (Vrabel, McDaniels), can pressure Seattle’s Sam Darnold, and will keep it within four and a half.
  • Andrew agrees, emphasizing that the pre-championship line was only Seattle -3.5, calling -4.5 too large.

  "If this game even plays close, let's say the Patriots fall short and I'm wrong here … I'm still making money, I'm still winning. Four and a half is a nice cushion." — Joey P. (07:29)

• On Scenario Betting

  • If you believe in Seattle domination, Andrew advises not to hesitate laying the points, or to tease Seattle to -6.5 or -7 for better value. Otherwise, value is on NE ATS.

4. Patriots’ Matchup Advantages & X-Factors

• Defensive Personnel (08:33–10:44)

  • Patriots run defense highlighted as a major advantage. Starters like Spillane, Tunga, Milton Williams, and Christian Barrymore can limit Kenneth Walker and force a more predictable Seattle passing game.
  • Christian Gonzalez posited as a key DB to slow down JSN (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) in clutch downs.
  • Rookie QB Drake Maye (NE) viewed as a wild card with mobility that opens up new offensive dimensions—even if the O-line is suspect.

  “Drake Maye is always an X-factor — the way he can make plays with his legs. … That was never a case with Tom Brady.” — Andrew Erickson (09:32)

5. Turnovers, Discipline, and Coaching Pedigree

• Intangibles (12:44–14:09)
  • Super Bowl experience and coaching discipline is one of the reasons Joey prefers NE to cover; Seattle’s defense is good but emotionally prone to costly penalties (example: Tariq Woolen during NFC title game).

Best Bets & Props Breakdown

| Bet | Host(s) | Explanation | Timestamp | |---------|:-----------:|-----------------|---------------| | Under 45.5 points (Game Total) | Joey, Andrew | Strong defenses, potentially injured QBs, conservative coaching; projections align with a low-scoring game. | 02:49, 04:00 | | Patriots +4.5 ATS | Joey, Andrew | Close match expected, Patriots’ defense and coaching expected to keep within the number. | 06:47, 08:33 | | Patriots Moneyline (+200) | Andrew | Game is closer to a coin-flip; value bet on the upset, especially with NE’s Super Bowl experience. | 10:44, 25:01 | | Patriots Over 20.5 points (-102) | Joey | Predicts a defensive touchdown boosts NE over line. | 14:08 | | Defensive Score by Patriots (+850) | Joey | Likes odds for a pick-six or fumble return (bold +850 payoff). | 14:09 | | SGP: Patriots +6.5 + Under 52.5 (Parlay +120) | Andrew | Both teams played mostly close, low-scoring games all year. | 14:38, 16:10 | | First Half Under 23.5 | Both | Super Bowls and these coaches trend slow/low scoring in first half, especially after a two-week layoff. | 17:11, 18:47 | | Clavon Chason to Record a Sack (+178) | Joey | NE defender is on a late-season tear, likely to pressure Darnold. | 20:07 | | Seahawks Over 3.5 Sacks (+128) | Andrew | Drake Maye has been sack-prone vs. top defenses; Seattle’s D-line depth should get home. | 22:12 |

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Level-Setting for Patriots’ Defense

  "Let's calm down already. It's a good, if a very good defense. This is not the Legion of Boom. This is not the 2000 Ravens. It's not the 85 Bears. Let's calm down." — Joey P. (15:44)

• On Betting Discipline & Coaching

  "I think sometimes emotions run really high...being able to limit those mistakes and penalties, and just bad decision making...I think really matters quite a bit." — Joey P. (12:54)

• Super Bowl Jitters and Slow Starts

  "Typically speaking that first quarter, especially with the two week layoff, everybody's a little flat. ...the super bowl does not get off to a rip roaring start..." — Joey P. (17:11)

• Patriots Super Bowl pedigree on NE Moneyline

  “I do think the Super Bowl experience they have on their sideline versus Seattle, I think is that extra edge too.” — Andrew Erickson (25:01)

• Humor & Personality

  "Now I sound like Dick Vitale, who is a little bit closer to me in terms of physical appearance. ...I would think me and Dick Vitale could be cousins." — Joey P. (20:57)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Defense Deep Dive & Under Discussion — 00:54–06:10
• ATS and Moneyline Analysis — 06:40–11:24
• Prop Bets & SGPs — 14:08–18:47, 20:07–22:12
• Hosts’ Favorite Bets Recap & Parlay — 25:00–28:44

Summary Table: Hosts’ Favorite Bets

| Pick | Joey P. | Andrew Erickson | |--------------------------|-----------------------|------------------------| | Game Total | Under 45.5 | Under 45.5 | | Spread | Patriots +4.5 | Patriots +4.5 | | Moneyline | Slight lean (+240 parlay) | Patriots ML (+200) | | Patriots Team Total | Over 20.5 | In parlay | | Key Player Prop | Chason sack (+178) | Seahawks 3.5+ sacks (+128) | | SGP/Parlay | N/A | Patriots +6.5 & Under 52.5 (+120) | | First Half Total | Under 23.5 | Under 23.5 |

Final Thoughts

Both hosts expect Super Bowl LX to be a close, defense-oriented contest with neither offense opening up early or often. They land firmly on the under, the Patriots plus the points, and, in Andrew’s case, the Patriots outright. The episode is rich in context, providing not only stats and trends but also nuanced thoughts on coaching matchups, turnovers, and Super Bowl nerves.

For more picks, debate, and prop action, check out the Friday prop show with the rest of the BettingPros crew.

“Players win games; coaches win championships. Give me the Pats money line upset.”
— Joey P. (28:10)