FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Target Tetairoa McMillan at a Discount? | Week 5 Buy Low + Sell High Wide Receiver Targets (Ep. 1744)
Date: October 1, 2025
Host: Ryan Warmley
Guest Analyst: Andrew Erickson

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on Week 5 buy low and sell high targets among wide receivers in fantasy football, with some coverage of quarterbacks and tight ends. Ryan Warmley and Andrew Erickson break down key trends, player usage, and actionable strategies to help listeners capitalize on market inefficiencies, especially in the wake of underperformances or misleading box scores. The show features deep dives on emerging rookies, veteran concerns, rest-of-season outlook, and strategic trading around bye weeks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Buy Low Wide Receivers

Tetairoa McMillan – Carolina Panthers (01:55)

• Usage/Breakout Potential:
  • 22% target share, 8 targets in Week 4
  • 50% of team air yards; top 20 in air yard share through four games
  • Snap share rising weekly (83% → 94%)
  • Box score lagging, but "head and shoulders above every other Panthers wide receiver"
  • Panthers' next two games (Miami, Dallas) are at home—favorable for a breakout
  • Quote:

    “I think that he's set up for a breakout spot... Last week we called the Ashton Genti breakout spot for a rookie. This week it's going to be Tetairoa McMillan.” (Andrew Erickson, 03:36)

  • Christian Gonzalez's return did not neutralize McMillan; he handled one of NFL's best corners well; even praised by Gonzalez postgame.
  • Concerns: Not connecting on long plays or red zone targets yet, but usage signals upside.

Jameson Williams – Detroit Lions (06:13)

• Week 4 Frustration, Opportunity:
  • 10 targets (team-high, includes negated plays), 30% target share, 200+ air yards
  • Box score: just 2 catches for 40 yards
  • Usage is promising – “classic buy low spot” vs. Bengals in Week 5
  • Has finished outside top 50 WRs in 3 of 4 games, but much due to matchups and missed deep connections
  • Quote:

    “I'm pulling my hair out because it's one of these... He had the opportunities, just they didn't end up coming to fruition. So that was frustrating. But what happens when we see players, receivers specifically, have games like this is they end up just popping the following week.” (Andrew Erickson, 06:47)

  • Recommended as a start this week, with potential for a huge game.

2. Sell High Wide Receivers

DJ Moore – Chicago Bears (12:18)

• Red Flags:
  • Role limited to low average depth of target, minimal red zone and air yard share
  • Expected fantasy points: WR48
  • Potential for personnel change post-bye: rookie Luther Burden could steal role; Moore is "the guy [coach Ben Johnson] inherited"
  • Roman Odunze now the true WR1; Moore faces potential snap count reduction
  • Quote:

    "If you have DJ Moore, you're hoping he gets traded at some point... I think I'd rather just get out of the DJ Moore business while I can." (Andrew Erickson, 13:21)

  • Even possible trade to Miami is just speculative; selling now while the name has value makes sense.

DK Metcalf – Pittsburgh Steelers (16:37)

• Why Sell:
  • Usage is low: only 5.5 targets/game, 20% share, almost no downfield work (5.9 aDOT)
  • Production driven by unsustainable big plays (80-yard TD last week); 3 TDs in last 3 games
  • Scoring well above expected; regression coming as usage doesn't support sustained top production
  • Expected fantasy points per game: outside top 50 WRs
  • Consensus ranking up to WR21—too high for the underlying role
  • Quote:

    "If he doesn't rip off that big yards after the catch or he doesn't catch a touchdown, you're going to be left with a very disappointing effort." (Andrew Erickson, 18:24)

  • Rest-of-season outlook: rather have George Pickens, Rome Odunze, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jameson Williams, Devonta Smith, or Jalen Waddle

3. Macro Strategy: Trading & Bye Weeks

• Target rookies on bye weeks (15:07) – Buy low on rookies post-bye, anticipating increased usage (the “rookie bump”).
• Example: Steelers rookie Caleb Johnson, Packers’ Matthew Golden are cheap stashes mid-bye week.
• Use bye weeks as leverage for trading—managers may undervalue resting players.

4. Quarterbacks & Tight Ends

QB Buy: Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs (23:01)

• Renewed Offense:
  • Looked “like the old Patrick Mahomes” with Xavier Worthy and other WRs getting healthy
  • 4 TDs, 270 yds vs. Ravens (even with banged-up defense)
  • Rest-of-season schedule gets easier (except for tough playoff matchups)
  • Quote:

    “I like the way that the Chiefs offense is headed in the trajectory that they're going, getting their guys back and healthy.” (Andrew Erickson, 24:15)

  • Buy if fantasy managers frustrated with early season production

QB Sell: None Enthusiastically, but Discussion on Jared Goff, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray (38:04)

• Erickson and Warmley both non-committal about QB targets after Mahomes; general lack of enthusiasm for options beyond clear top QBs.
• Goff and Nix both matchup-dependent streamers rather than holds.
• Kyler Murray: “I don't think you need to have a lot of faith that Kyler Murray's gonna all of a sudden just be this fantasy difference maker...” (38:57)

TE Sell: David Njoku – Cleveland Browns (28:00)

• Losing Role:
  • Harold Fannin has overtaken him as primary TE target
  • “Njoku's role has really faded and we've kind of seen that play out...” (Andrew Erickson, 29:48)
  • Outproduced by Fannin in 3 of 4 games despite similar snap/route tenure
  • Potential to be outright dropped or traded.

5. Lightning Buy/Sell/Hold Segment (Timestamps Approx. 32:43, 35:21, 38:04, 42:00)

WR Trio: Xavier Worthy, Jalen Waddle, Devonta Smith

• Buy: Jalen Waddle (potential for WR1 usage)
• Hold: Xavier Worthy (upside if healthy, but injury risk and Rice's return complicate)
• Sell: Devonta Smith (volume not there when A.J. Brown and Goedert are healthy)

WR Trio: Michael Pittman Jr., Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison

• Buy: Pittman (clear WR1 with Daniel Jones, undervalued)
• Hold: Johnston (believes in third-year breakout, role is real)
• Sell: Addison (QB/role uncertainty, sells off strong Week 4 production)

QB Trio: Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Bo Nix

• Discussion shows all are middling, non-exciting holds, with arguments for selling high after spike games.
• No enthusiastic endorsement for any as a long-term buy; Murray is the “buy” by process of elimination due to low acquisition cost.

TE Trio: Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid

• Sell: Mark Andrews (Lamar Jackson injury, declining usage)
• Buy: Dalton Kincaid (ties to Josh Allen, targets when on the field)
• Hold: Dallas Goedert (safe, but capped upside)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "He's just so far head and shoulders above every other Panthers wide receiver on this roster and he's top 20 in air yard share through four games." (Erickson on McMillan, 02:45)
• "When you look at just his usage, he's wide receiver 10 in expected fantasy points per game... all those things are there, the production just hasn't quite followed." (Erickson, 03:18)
• "This is why air yards were created, for players like Jameson Williams." (Erickson, 06:13)
• "I think I'd rather just get out of the DJ Moore business while I can, while he still has that name brand cachet." (Erickson, 13:38)
• "I'm doubling down on my Metcalf fade... The usage doesn't suggest that this is going to continue throughout the rest of the season." (Erickson, 18:27)
• "If he doesn't rip off that big yards after the catch or he doesn't catch touchdown, well, you're going to be left with a very disappointing effort." (Erickson on Metcalf, 19:03)
• "The Chiefs offense looks way more fun when they actually have fully functioning receivers out there. Xavier Worthy kind of unlocked this offense..." (Erickson, 23:04)
• "David Njoku has just really become an afterthought... Harold Fannin has outproduced David Njoku in three of the first four games this season." (Erickson, 28:04)
• "Buy rookies on bye week" - emphasizing this as a repeatable market edge (16:10)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:55] Buy Low: Tetairoa McMillan
• [06:13] Buy Low: Jameson Williams
• [12:18] Sell High: DJ Moore
• [16:37] Sell High: DK Metcalf
• [23:01] QB Buy: Patrick Mahomes
• [28:00] TE Sell: David Njoku
• [32:43] WR Buy/Sell/Hold: Xavier Worthy, Waddle, Smith
• [35:21] WR Buy/Sell/Hold: Pittman, Johnston, Addison
• [38:04] QB Buy/Sell/Hold: Kyler Murray, Goff, Nix
• [42:00] TE Buy/Sell/Hold: Goedert, Andrews, Kincaid

Final Takeaways

• Target players whose underlying usage is far better than their recent production (McMillan, Williams).
• Sell underproducing veterans on declining offenses or with role threats (Moore, Metcalf, Njoku).
• Exploit market lulls during bye weeks, especially with rookies poised for expanded roles.
• Keep a close eye on offensive line injuries, new personnel, and rest-of-season schedule in evaluating buy/sell QB targets.
• Don’t be fooled by name value when underlying usage trends are negative—move off big-name fades before the market catches up.

For more analysis (including running backs and MNF breakdown), listen to the show’s part one.