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Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast.
Matt Jones
Hey, this is Matt Jones and I'm Drew Franklin and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining and twice a week that is exactly what you're going to get. Listen to NFL Cover 0 with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
Ryan Warmley
Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined as I am every Tuesday morning by Andrew Erickson. We are talking wide receiver buys and sells. If you missed the running back show where we also did a very deep dive into the Monday Night Football doubleheader, reacted to all the fantasy information and, you know, stuff that went on there on that episode, be sure to check that out YouTube or audio wherever you listen to your podcast. Today on this episode we're talking about wide receivers and like I said, a little bit of quarterback and tight end action as well. I do want to let everybody know that if you want a chance to win the funniest, most infamous prize in fantasy football, the Golden Toilet trophy, courtesy of our good friends at Trophy Smack, the number one destination for epic fantasy football hardware, then this is your moments. This shining gold toilet is the ultimate symbol of failure, designed to immortalize the last place finisher in your league. It's hilarious, it's bold, and it's guaranteed to bring endless trash talk. To enter, all you need to do is subscribe to The Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now and drop a comment below on any of our videos. That is it. We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel, so be sure to turn on notifications so you don't miss your chance to claim this trophy and make last place unforgettable. Erickson, let's dive right into the wide receivers to buy it. Is our favorite player in football that.
Andrew Erickson
You were talking about first, Tetro McMillan. Just playing the hits, everybody. By T Mac. More alpha usage in Week 4, but he hasn't had the box score pop quite yet. 22 target share, 8 targets. He had 50 of the team's air yards in Week 4 and watching that game, I think that if you hadn't watched it, you would have think, okay, Christian Gonzalez came back for McMillan, matched up shadow coverage, shut him down. That wasn't really the case. It wasn't. Gonzalez and his first came back really shadowing McMillan all over the field. McMillan made plenty of catches actually when Gonzalez was not the guy in the primary coverage. However, when he was matched up against Gonzalez, he wasn't overmatched. Like he didn't look like he was inferior to one of the NFL's best cornerbacks. So I think that's just a testament of what kind of talent T. Mac is, Gonzalez said actually after the game like, hey, this rookie is really, really talented. So those are things important to note with the context of T. Mac. He's just so far head and shoulders above every other Panthers wide receiver on this roster and he's top 20 in air yard share through four games. Bryce Young and them just kind of keep missing on long big plays. Whether it's in the red zone, whether it's downfield, they're just not connecting. But eventually those things start to click. We have the Panthers going back at home this week playing against the Miami Dolphins like this is a great matchup for Tetrahock Millen to really have that breakout game. When you look at just his usage, he's wide receiver 10 and expected fancy points per game. So that's considering where he's seeing his targets, where he's seeing his air yards, when he's seeing red zone opportunities, all those things are there. The production just hasn't quite followed. I think that he's set up for a breakout spot. I know last week we called the Ashton Genti breakout spot for a rookie. This week it's going to be Tetheron McMillan.
Ryan Warmley
My love for T.E. mcMillan has not changed at all. Obviously I, you know, very aggressive in draft season, still want to be aggressive, still love the idea of acquiring him. I do want to ask you what your concern level is. Not on him overall as a player, not on him as somebody worth buying, but specifically the lack of touchdowns. You've talked a lot in preseason shows the last couple of years about how the key to finding the wide receiver one for the year is leading in red zone targets. And that usage is just so important for wide receivers in fantasy. It's only four games into a season. I'm not saying he's the next, you know, Andre Johnson or was it Julio Jones that never caught a lot of touchdowns? Trey McBride I'm trying to think of a few examples of very good players who just weren't used a lot in the red zone. Do you have any concerns about that? Not. Not that he has not been used in the red zone, but just that it hasn't clicked there yet. For him so far?
Andrew Erickson
I don't think so. I think part of it too, and this actually stems back from last season, Bryce Young. In the Panthers offense, they like to throw the ball a lot when they're in the red zone. And, and the reason why the Panthers just say haven't scored a ton of touchdowns is because a lot of those red zone targets have been going to guys like Xavier Leggett, Hunter Renfro and not enough Tetra McMillan. So I think when they go back and review the tape, they think Dave Canales is going to reflect and say maybe we should get our top 10, pick more red zone targets and not these other guys who are just really inconsistent. So I think that when they have better matchups like this week, next week, I believe they're taking. I think it's.
Ryan Warmley
I was gonna say, here's the other thing I really like about McMillan. The next two weeks are Miami and Dallas. Both of those games are at home for the Panthers.
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, we saw the Panthers one good game this year. They put up 30 points. That was their one home game that matters. So they've had.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, they've had three or four on the road so far this year. It's worth. Worth.
Andrew Erickson
As bad as they looked against the Patriots, don't forget they looked extremely good against the Atlanta Falcons just two weeks ago. So where they're playing, who their opponent is, I think matters significantly.
Ryan Warmley
But Erickson, that game against Atlanta, their one great game, was the worst game for McMillan. He only had three catches for 48 yards. It was, you know, I mean, similar targets to the other games. Right. And it's not like it was drastically different from the other games, but it was his worst production so far this year.
Andrew Erickson
And we say worst 348. That's not.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I mean, I'm terrible. Yeah.
Andrew Erickson
But yeah, to your point, snap share.
Ryan Warmley
Has gone up every week to 83%, to 85%, to 90% to 94% in the four weeks of the season. You, we, everybody knows we love Tedrobic, Bill, and we can, we can go to the next player here, who is your next wide receiver to buy.
Andrew Erickson
This is why air yards were created for players like Jameson Williams the following week. So Jameson Williams was a player I liked a lot going into week four back at home in the dome, and him and Jared Goff just could not connect on any of the deep targets that Jameson Williams had. So when you conclude plays negated by penalties, Jameson Williams actually led the lines with 10 targets for a team high 30% target share. He had over 200 air yards and yet finished with a very, very, very lackluster box score.
Ryan Warmley
Two catches for 40 yards was the box.
Andrew Erickson
Yes. By the way, it was absolutely atrocious and super frustrating because I did my social short this week. I talked about I want to play Jameson Williams. And just watching that game, I'm seeing all these opportunities for Jameson Williams downfield and just none of them are connecting. And it's just I'm pulling my hair up because it's one of these. Well, it seemed like the process was right here. He had the opportunities, just they didn't end up coming to fruition. So that was frustrating. But what happens when we see players, receivers specifically have games like this is they end up just popping the following week. So I think Jameson Williams playing on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals, we know they're one of the worst defenses in the NFL. This is a classic buy low spot where Jameson Williams maybe not even just like a buyload, a trade, but buy low. To start this week like you want to play Jameson Williams because against the Bengals, I think he could have a monster game just based on the usage we saw in week four. And I want to get him on my roster.
Ryan Warmley
He has finished Outside the top 50 at wide receiver in three of his four games this season, which I think could lend itself to making him more affordable. Even for managers who see the usage in the air, yards and I mean over 200 is like bonkers.
Andrew Erickson
I mean it was comical how often they were going down to a field and how none of them were being caught.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. And of course two of those really bad finishes were at Green Bay, who in those first two weeks of the season looked like the best defense in football. And against Cleveland, who might be the best defensive football. The other poor finish was against the Ravens, who are not a good defense, but the Lions didn't need to throw as much because they were just running all over him. So you can paint a pretty clear picture for why he has kind of not lived up to the height at the same time. He only has 10 catches on the whole season. So I, I think you could paint a picture either way, honestly. But the usage is great. And of course this matchup against the Bengals is, I mean, salivating. That's what would you said is over under. I haven't looked at Hard Rock bet to see what the line is at this early in the week, but what would you set it at?
Andrew Erickson
It's going to be around 40, 42 and a half yards because that's what they always have to do. But Jameson Williams is one of these players where that's not really the best line, even though it's what he had last week, because it's usually 20 receiving yards or lower or 80 plus receiving yards, essentially. So he's someone that we like to quote, unquote, ladder bet, because when he goes over, he goes way, way over.
Ryan Warmley
He's wide receiver 24 Rest of season in the consensus rankings. Does that sound too high, too low, or just right?
Andrew Erickson
I like that ranking for him. 24.
Ryan Warmley
Okay. Yeah. Well, Tedro McMillan and Jameson Williams both seem like strong buys this week. At wide receiver. You can use the trade analyz, and that's@fantasypros.com myplaybook or on the fantasypros app. You can use that trade analyzer to instantly evaluate how any trade will affect your team for this week, for the rest of the season, or even in Dynasty.
Matt Jones
Hey, this is Matt Jones. And I'm Drew Franklin, and this is NFL Cover Zero. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining, and twice a week, that is exactly what you're gonna get. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other takeaway from that game. What was that? Looks like something that should not be sold. Oh, my. So that was my other big Colts takeaway. They sold that?
Andrew Erickson
Yes.
Matt Jones
Might want to go back to the Colts stadium. Yeah, I might want to go back to the drawing board on that. Yeah. I thought the shape we had with pretzels was working pretty well.
Andrew Erickson
It's worked for generations.
Matt Jones
We're just here trying to enjoy it. We hope you all will join us throughout the year. And let's go. I hope I'm as youthful as Pete Carroll is at his age. He's a young 73. He is a young 73. He is spry. I wouldn't fight him. I would Listen NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael F. Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season?
Ryan Warmley
Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips and winning strategies.
Andrew Erickson
Whether you're a rookie manager or a.
Matt Jones
Fantasy vet, we've got the insight to help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or.
Andrew Erickson
Wherever you get your podcasts.
Matt Jones
Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit toyota.com NFL now to learn more. What's up everybody? Daniel Jeremiah here and I'm Bucky Brooks On Move the Sticks. We take you inside the game, from scouting reports and player development to team building philosophies, coaching trends and how front offices construct winning rosters. Every week we study the tape, talk to decision makers and share the insights you won't find anywhere else. It's the kind of conversation that connects the dots. From college football prospects to the NFL stars of tomorrow. We break down the draft, analyze matchups and evaluate how teams put it all together on game day. Plus, we dig into coaching strategies, roster construction and the trends that shape the league year after year. Whether you're a die hard fan or just love understanding the game on a deeper level, we give you the full picture. If you want insight that goes beyond the box score, this podcast is for you. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Six podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
Ryan Warmley
Erickson let's go to the wide receivers to sell. Who do you have for us?
Andrew Erickson
DJ Moore for the Chicago Bears. Talking about selling a lot of veteran Bears players this week on the trade shows and that's because I really think that Ben Johnson is going to change up the personnel usage out of the bye week for Chicago. D.J. moore has been kind of limited to this low average depth of target role. Just not seeing a ton of air yards, red zone targets. All those things that we are chasing for fantasy upside like that just hasn't been the case with DJ Moore in the soffits. Last week was 4 for 38 stat line 4.3 average depth of target. I'm concerned with him is Ben Johnson decides well I'm just gonna play Luther Burton in this DJ more role instead. Like Luther Burns the guy I drafted, DJ Moore is the guy I inherited. I don't want to use him as my focal point of this offense. I think if you have DJ Moore you're hoping that he gets traded at some point because right now through four weeks wide receiver 48 and expected fantasy points per game. So unless his role dramatically changes, which if anything I think it's just going to get reduced even more in the spares office or he could send up traded. So again we saw a big injury in Miami. Do the Dolphins make a play for DJ Moore? I could kind of see his skill set fitting into what the Dolphins do like getting scheme touched to guys behind a lot of scrimmage, but that's still, that's a wish casting when you're trying to figure out, okay, who's the best trade destination for this player. I think I'd rather just get out of the DJ Moore business while I can while he still has that name brand cachet because Roman Dunes obviously taken over as the wide receiver one in this offense and I'm concerned that Moore is going to lose out in snaps to someone like Luther Burden or when Colston Loveland comes back. I think he's going to be more involved as well.
Ryan Warmley
After this show is when I usually start sitting down or really like taking a look at like schedule and stuff for the week and and you just have to take it week to week doing this. I knew that the packers were on by this week for some reason I thought it was just two teams. I didn't realize it was Packers, Falcons, Bears and Steelers. So I'm glad you brought that up. I know we didn't really have time in today's episode to do kind of like a macro like 30,000 foot view, you know. Piece of advice from you Ericsson, but I do want to ask sort of a philosophical like now that we are into bye weeks, does that change how you approach trading? Like particularly in these early buy weeks because later on everybody has injuries. You know, we're going to have a Buymageddon at some point and every, you know, people are going to be desperate. This early you don't get as much desperation. Even teams that are 1 and 3 or oh and 4, it's you can still very, you know, it's not like real life football where if you get down like your players are playing differently and feels like this is a still a fake team, that it will be not unreasonable to go on a six game winning streak and all of a sudden you're six and four and it's fine like you're not out of it at 0 and 4. So the desperation maybe isn't there. But with bye week starting to sprinkle in four of them this week, some good players, you know, across those four teams, obviously Packers, Falcons, does that change your like kind of overall, you know, level of approach to trading at this time of year?
Andrew Erickson
I think the one thing I'm looking to do is the teams on bye weeks looking at the rookies on those specific teams and looking how can I acquire those types of players? Because this is something that we see constantly throughout the NFL is rookies see that post by rookie bump in terms of their usage. And that's what I point about when talking about the Chicago Bears, they have a lot of rookies that they've played throughout the first couple weeks of the season. Coulson, love that I know has been banged up a little bit. No one's going to be surprised if they come out in week six and these rookies are all playing more because Ben Johnson is trying to figure out, okay, what is my best personnel? Is it DJ Moore and DeAndre Swift? I don't think he's going to look back at the first four weeks of the season and think, yeah, let's keep getting these guys the football. I just don't envision that being the case. So those are angles that I'm looking at. Where can I get some of these rookies on the cheap coming out of their bye weeks where we could see a production spike, a usage spike. Well, maybe the managers are more asleep at the wheel just looking at, oh well, this guy's on a bye week. He doesn't have as much value. Maybe that's an opportunity to strike up.
Ryan Warmley
A deal by rookies on bye week. Steelers are on bye. What Ericsson is saying is in fact emphatically go by Caleb Johnson. That's his plant your flag number one buy target of the well, the thing.
Andrew Erickson
Is with him is you don't actually have to buy him. You can just leave him on waivers.
Ryan Warmley
Pick him up.
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, pick him up later.
Ryan Warmley
Maybe Matthew golden on the packers side as well. Somebody you know along those same lines. All right, give me your next wide receiver to sell.
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, this one was tough to put on the list because I totally bombed DK Metcalf call this past week. Speaking of my social shorts again started Jameson Williams told those to sit DK Metcalf. Metcalf, which I was regretting immediately after that game started. And then he takes that slant and he starts running and I'm thinking there's got to be someone's gonna tackle this guy, right? And nope, there's no one to tackle him. He just runs all the way for an 80 yard touchdown and just completely buries me in the rankings competition. So I apologize to those that took my advice and saw the short and bench DK Metcalf. That was a missed call on my part. But I don't necessarily hate the process that I came behind with Metcalf. I was arguing against the target volume that he had in the Steelers offense and that really hasn't changed for him. He is averaging 5.5 targets per game this season. He has only a 20 target share and he's seeing almost no downfield usage at all. Like he has strictly been a low average depth of target player 5.9 because a lot of it is just let's get the ball quick. DK Metcalf and in week four against the Vikings, yes, sometimes that can happen. He's a big explosive player that they got the ball quickly to him and then he ripped off an 80 yard touchdown run. Is that super sustainable though week over week? I'm a little bit skeptical of that. So when you're looking at players for receivers, Metcalf through four weeks is the third most points scored above expectation. So just based on his usage, like he is scoring well above what a player with his target volume and where he's seen targets should be scoring. It's because he's had a lot of yards after the catch, a lot of big plays and he's because he scored three touchdowns in the last three weeks. So just yes, he's been very highly productive. But just based on the targets that he is seeing in this role in the Steelers offense, I just don't necessarily think it's super sustainable. His expected fantasy points per game is outside the top 50among wide receivers. Not, not top five like outside the top 50 receivers. So something is going to give eventually with Metcalf. If he doesn't rip off that big yards after the catch or he doesn't catch touchdown, well, you're going to be left with a very disappointing effort. So I think just because he had such a highlight, real play on a primetime game where everybody saw it, including me, I think that you can get a lot for DK Metcalf when, when you look at, when you look under the hood at his actual role. He's not really seeing like alpha level numbers as those Steelers or wide receiver one. So I'm again I'm doubling down on my Metcalf fade essentially here. So Worm, if I'm like just totally wrong here and it's like Ericson, you just take the L and move on. Please tell me that because I know that the comments will probably tell me that as well. But what do you think with Metcalf?
Ryan Warmley
I regret to inform you that I cannot disagree with you. I, I actually like, as you were talking I was like looking at, you know, some of his stats and everything. I was like I would love to come in and disagree and, and fight back against Erickson. He's risen eight spots in the consensus rest of season rankings in the last week. He's a wide receiver 21. I have no interest in him at that value. Honestly, like I Just look at he's one spot behind George Pickens. He's only three spots behind Roma Dunes A I would so much rather have those guys than DK Metcalf and I'm not even the biggest Pickens fan. But like I just like to me that's a no brainer. Like some of the names behind him, Ricky Piersol, obviously there's some injury question mark there. Marvin Harrison Jr. Jameson Williams, Devonte Smith, Terry McLaurin, Jalen Waddle, Xavier Worthy. I just like I'm not. I just don't feel now part of that is I don't feel that great about a lot of those names truthfully. Like it is a weak area and you know, why does he have been hit hard by injuries and that kind of makes sense that it would maybe feel like there's less depth there and everything like that. But I just 20 why does your 21 feels too high for me. I'm looking at the box scores, I'm like yeah, like breaking off an 80 yard catch and run touchdown is not sustainable as something you're going to predict week after week. And I don't have faith in Aaron Rodgers to be effective the whole year he's in his early 40s. I don't have a lot of faith in Arthur Smith. Like there's no part of this fills me with confidence and particularly the confidence to want to go like buy somebody like DK Metcalf coming off of his best game of the season. I'd much rather be on the selling side of that of that question pretty easily and I'm sorry that I couldn't push back on you harder.
Andrew Erickson
Well I'm glad that I made a compelling argument because I, I hate being the guy when I, I'm doubling down on a player that was trying to fade because I didn't like Metcalf during draft season, didn't like him in week four and so far I've basically been wrong with both of those picks. So I don't want to keep like digging this ditch of DK Metcalf. But I am trying to be transparent with just the usage doesn't suggest that hey like this is going to continue throughout the rest season and maybe he continues to run hot and just, just rips off these massive plays. I mean have you seen this guy? He's a beast. He's built like a, a a beast. So that is always possible. But I think you can get a lot for him and make it more consistent production. Two names that come to mind before we get to the next Segment Worm Rashi Rice or DK Metcalf? Jalen Waddle or DK Metcalf?
Ryan Warmley
I would probably rather have Waddle and just take the swing on with Tyree Kill out. You know, we're going to see a real leap for him. It feels weird to say about somebody who's built the way DK Metcalf is, but I just feel like Waddle maybe has the higher ceiling in terms of the usage. I expect Rice is tougher just because it's both the suspension and the injury. And I know at this point you would expect him to be good on the injury, but you still never know when guys come back for the first time. I also do really like Worthy and I'm. I don't. I don't want to make a prediction about what that usage will look like. You know, what we saw from Worthy of the back half of last year, his first full game this year. I'd rather just wait and see what that's going to look like with him and Rice. The upside for Rice though is higher than Metcalf. Also like, so the. If it's purely a ceiling play, I guess I would take both of them over Metcalf. Rice I get a little more nervous about just because like I just want to be a little more conservative with that, with that offense in general in terms of where the usage is going to go.
Andrew Erickson
Okay.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I like DK Metcalf the player for the record. I just don't. I mean you take away that 80 yard catch and run which is like a fluky thing you can't expect every week, and his production this year is entirely touchdown driven, which I don't know if that'll sustain itself. So let's go to the quarterbacks and tight end segment. There's less to dive into here, so we'll do one buy from either position and one sell from either position. Who is your buy?
Andrew Erickson
Patrick Mahomes. We saw.
Ryan Warmley
Speaking of Rice and Worthy.
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, yeah, we kind of saw him turn back the old Patrick Mahomes against the Baltimore Ravens. Who. I mean, maybe I was playing defense for them this past week. I don't necessarily. It was. I mean they're just down so bad. But that being said, the Chiefs offense looks way more fun when they actually have fully functioning receivers out there. So Xavier Worthy kind of unlocked this offense unlock the deep game. Just. It just made things seem so much easier for the Chiefs offense to function. Mahomes 3 for four touchdowns, 270 passing yards. So I like what I saw from him and even Last year when Worthy was part of the lineup as a full time player, Mahomes was a fantasy QB one. He was a strong starter down the stretch. So you factor Worthy being back then Rashi Rice is coming back in for week seven, so he's getting all of the receivers back. So I thought that Mahomes was in for a bounce back year at the beginning of the year. Worthy immediately gets hurt and the first couple weeks are really tough for the Chiefs quarterback, but he's turned it around. I, I like the way that the Chiefs offense is headed in the trajectory that they're going getting their guys back and healthy. So he would be a quarterback that I'm looking to buy if someone was frustrated with him for the first couple of weeks of the season. Obviously had a big game here in week four, but someone that I like, especially the second half of the season. I think the schedule is a little bit easier. I know there's a couple matchups against Denver that a bit tougher.
Ryan Warmley
It ends tough. Like fantasy playoff time is tough. But the, the stretch getting to the fantasy playoffs is definitely. It's much easier than.
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, but it has been. I just like yeah, Chiefs trajectory stock up.
Ryan Warmley
I really actually struggle on Mahomes. On the one hand it's like we've talked for a couple years about how it feels like the ceiling is kind of gone from this offense and now all of a sudden he's QB three through four weeks this season. In three of the four weeks he's been a top six option, so it's been consistently high end. Now two of those weeks were really carried by rushing and that's not something that we really expect out of Mahomes at least at the level of it being like a super relevant fantasy level of rushing. I mean he had 57 yards in a Russian touchdown in week one, 66 yards in Russian touchdown in week two. Those are the types of numbers that you wouldn't expect to sustain and they haven't. Weeks three and four, he has a combined seven rushing yards. But week four he of course has this great passing game, but it comes against like probably the worst defense in football when you consider the injury situation for Baltimore. So I, I really go back and forth. I do think like I just mentioned being a little torn on like Rice versus Worthy and what that's going to look like. I do like the idea of just being invested in the quarterback instead. It's the same reason why I liked Jordan Love a lot this year. I didn't want to have to guess who the Target was going to be. I just wanted the quarterback of what I thought was going to a good offense. So I totally get that. And this could very well be a the Mojo is back type of game. And it's also like you can't I don't think overstate enough the fact that it's not a coincidence probably that the first game where the passing game looks amazing and back this year is the first game where Xavier Worthy plays more than three snaps. Right like that. That is a huge difference maker when the guys are on the field. So ultimately I think I do agree with you that he's a buyer. I'm a little more hesitant just because of how much of the early production has come from the running. But and just that like it's been multiple years of this plodding, boring, just ugly, not fantasy productive offense in Kansas City. But if they like say listen Pacheco is cooked and we're going to just abandon the run entirely, start throwing a lot and the only guy who is going to run is Mahomes, that's going to be really helpful for fantasy. So, so I, while I am maybe a little hesitant, I definitely like, you know, binary yes, no decision. It's a yes. He's a buy for me.
Andrew Erickson
Yeah. And I think that one of the names I think could be used to get Mahomes would be a player that we talked about, I believe is my first quarterback by was Justin Herbert. Because now you have another tackle injury. Joe Alt, now he's hurt again. So those things start to add up when you lose offensive linemen left and right. Herbert doesn't play exceptionally great against the Giants. In a game where Joel doesn't play. I don't think that's a coincidence. So the things can shift dramatically with quarterbacks. You know, you lose a couple pieces here and there, you get pieces back like Mahomes and you see the fantasy production dramatically change. So maybe that's a tr. I don't know how you, I don't know if. Would you flip Herbert to get Mahomes at this point?
Ryan Warmley
Herbert's looks so good. I really do think he's leveled up this year and like Quentin Johnson, being good has helped and all that. But I, I think the offensive line is bad enough that I would, I would move Herbert for and Herbert's QB5 in our rest of season rankings, Mahomes QB7. So by those rankings you could make that trade. And I, I think I would. What about Drake May? He's the guy who's ranked in between the two of them.
Andrew Erickson
I'm never trading way Drake, man. You can't. Even if my rankings say otherwise, I'm not, I'm not trading Drake May away just going down. I mean he's been fantastic keeping Drake.
Ryan Warmley
May all the way Drake Mayflower because he's taking you to new worlds. He's. He's the guy.
Andrew Erickson
Oh, I love that.
Ryan Warmley
All right, who is your quarterback or tight end sell?
Andrew Erickson
I think I've always picked a tight end for this segment.
Ryan Warmley
Thank you. I think you asked.
Andrew Erickson
I've just cycled through veteran tight ends. It was Andrews, it was Kelsey, it was Hawkinson, and now it's David and Joku.
Ryan Warmley
I want you next week to pick a quarterback. That's your homework for, for week six. But for week five, you've got in Joku.
Andrew Erickson
Yes. And Joko has just really become an afterthought in the Browns passing game. Harold Fannin has kind of taken over as the primary tight end target in the passing game. Fan has out produced David and Joku in three of the first four games this season. And that's not even because Fan is playing more snaps or running more routes. Like the usage has been pretty solid for Njoku in terms of route participation, in terms of snaps played, but the guy just isn't involved anymore. It's really kind of bizarre because you think that he has established chemistry with Joe flacco going back 2023. You think, okay, like they're gonna run back what Njoku did when he was like a tight end one down the stretch and that's just really not been the case whatsoever. The Browns are embracing their rookies. Like they're getting so many of these guys involved heavily and I think that could even mean that we don't see Joe Flacco in this offense sooner rather than later because he's been a turnover machine. So you have the risk of losing Flacco to a rookie quarterback like a Dylan Gabriel where I think the offensive becomes that much more run dependent on just feeding the ball to quinch on Judkins and that's going to suck out passing targets from this offense. So even if Cedric Tillman out the next couple weeks with a hamstring injury, I'm not optimistic that Njoku is going to be a benefactor. I think it's going to be Judy, Harold Fannin and potentially even Isaiah Bond as guys that are really benefiting more. And it wouldn't surprise me if really Njoko is someone that gets traded before the trade deadline as they really look to embrace Harold Fannin as their Full time tight end one and not as much using both tight ends, although they're not doing the exact same things. I think that in Joku's roles has really faded and we've kind of seen that play out for the last month. So he's been kind of ranked as like a middling tight end like the last four weeks, but it just has not panned out. He has had really no big games and Fan just seems like the future for the Browns at tight end.
Ryan Warmley
They are now back to back in the rest of season consensus rankings at tight end with fan in one spot ahead. Fannin's tight end 17 and jokey's tight end 18.
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think that that's right. I think that's the guy you want. Now again, the trades could really shake things up with a lot of some of these players that we've talked about where if player gets traded, sometimes guys get landed in trades and they go to really good landing spots and it's perfect. Other times they get traded and they bomb. See Amari Cooper from last year, it was like absolutely terrible and he lost all of his fantasy value even though he went to the Bills, which we thought was a good landing spot. So it's always possible that a trade does benefit one of these players, but I would not be betting on that within Joku. So selling him, whether that means you trade in joke away or you just cut him outright, I think both are very much in play.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, once again I really can't push back. I don't have in Joku anywhere because I faded him pretty hard in August.
Andrew Erickson
Because you have Tucker, Craft, Tyler Warren. Because that was.
Ryan Warmley
Yes, that was literally every league where I didn't take Bowers or McBride. I took Crafter War.
Andrew Erickson
Also to point out in the content league where I was made fun of for going bully tight end with Tyler Warren, Tucker Craft. I'm undefeated eight zero. So there you go.
Ryan Warmley
Okay, but just so everybody is aware, we face I have a game against the median. We are aware there's only been four weeks. Not.
Andrew Erickson
Yes.
Ryan Warmley
This season we have a median scoring in that one. I am seven and one and my only loss is actually to the median this week. I was 60 going into this week.
Andrew Erickson
And then I won my match.
Ryan Warmley
I lost the median. Yeah, but I'm. It's a. You are eight. No. And then Bogman and I are seven and one apiece and Terrell Furman is six and two. Nobody else is above 500.
Andrew Erickson
Dude, the median is killing people in that league.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, we are David and You know, like you went bully tight end with the sleeper tight ends, which does that even count as bully tight end if you're taking Warren?
Andrew Erickson
If you knew they were going to be elite, then yes, I took Bowers.
Ryan Warmley
So not that that's panned out but I went early tight end and that like maybe that was the key. Oh, Bogman took Kelsey. So a tight end not the key for him. But at any rate, that'll be a fun league to track this season. Let's see who's in last place. Ooh, Kelly Kirby, our beloved colleague is 08.
Matt Jones
Oh no.
Ryan Warmley
Mike Mayer 2 and 6. Debro 2 and 6. Pat Fitz Morris 2 and 6. Joey P. 3 and 5. Welsh 3 and 5. Yikes. Every everybody who is under 500 the median is smoking.
Andrew Erickson
Everybody crushing them.
Ryan Warmley
Brutal stuff. All right, well let's go to our buy seller hold here to wrap things up. Got a couple wide receiver trios, then a quarterback, then a tight end. One first wide receiver, one Xavier Worthy, Jalen Waddle, Devonte Smith. Buy seller hold Xavier Worthy, Jalen Waddle, devontae Smith.
Andrew Erickson
I'm gonna buy Jalen Waddle. I. I just think that he has a really high ceiling if he can really take on that number one wide receiver role with Tyreek Hill. We've seen it before with him with Hill last couple seasons Hills missed a couple games and Waddle's been really effective, I believe averaging 85 yards per game the last three that Hill has played with a sub 50 snap share. So I'm gonna buy Jalen Waddle. I'm going to hold Xavier Worthy. Just I'd be happy that I have him. If you got him on the cheap while he was injured, I think that was a really sharp move to make. So I'm going to hold him and then just sell Devonte Smith. Maybe the team moves around away from A.J. brown. That will pre how this kind of crushes you, I would say but Devonte Smith just doesn't see a lot of volume. When A.J. brown and Dallas got are healthy. Right. He wasn't really involved this past week, I mean either with AJ Brown saw all the targets but didn't do anything with them. But yeah, Devonte Smith for me would just be the cell.
Ryan Warmley
We didn't really talk much about Worthy who obviously, you know, coming, you know, off his first full game this season looks very good. Again it was going against that Ravens offense. We talked about it more in terms of how it affects Mahomes and Rasheed Rice. But where does he rank for you rest of season? Is Worthy. Like, I know you have to pick a buy and a sell and a hold, so. So you can't put them both as buys. And I know you liked Waddle a lot, so I'm not surprised with that direction. But is Worthy a buy for you in a vacuum? If it wasn't. If I wasn't making you pick one of these three, like, is he somebody that you do want to be adding right now, or are you saying, like, hey, it was a really good first game, but it was a bad defense and Rice is coming back. And I'm more worried.
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, Rice is coming back. And that does worry me to some extent. I think Worthy's really talented player. I also think that the shoulder injury. Yes, he made it through this past game. Does that happen all year long? I. I think that one of the biggest things with this specific injury was that it is a very high risk of re injury. So that concerns me for the player that is smaller. Like, he is not a big guy. He's not built like DK Metcalf in any capacity. He wins with speed. So that concerns me for Worthy in the long term. So that's the only reason I wouldn't be going out and buying him super aggressively. Because there are some factors that I don't want to just totally ignore that could end up hurting Worthy down the stretch at some point. So if I have him, I'm just happy that I have him. I think maybe he'd probably be like a better sell high than probably a person to buy just because maybe you can get a lot for him. And if there are managers that are kind of ignoring some of those other factors that I just kind of talked about, then maybe that would be the move to make. But if I have him, I'm just going to write him. Especially because you have a couple more weeks without Rice still back in the fold. And like you said, Rice still might not be Rice himself in week seven when he first comes back, especially off the injury and just so much time missed.
Ryan Warmley
Another wide receiver Trio. Michael Pittman Jr. Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison. What do you think about this one? Pittman, Johnston, Addison.
Andrew Erickson
I'm gonna buy Michael Pittman because I think that he has just kind of established himself with Daniel Jones as the alpha in this Colts passing game. He's kind of dusted Josh Downs, even Tyler Warren, who's obviously had a big role in this passing game. It's still been Michael Pittman that's really been the number one wide receiver, number one target for Daniel Jones. So Pittman, I think is still kind of undervalued just based on probably where his rest season rank is. I don't think it's fully capturing what he's actually done as the number one guy in this Colts passing game. And Daniel Jones has looked productive and I think that he's going to be able to support Michael Pittman all year long. So Pittman will be the buy from. Johnson's going to be the hold for me. I think that the third year breakout for him is real and I definitely was skeptical of it the start the year. But now I'm, I'm fully on board, I think where I think he's convinced everybody or I shouldn't say everybody, but I, I have been. You know, he's turned my opinion about what to expect and it's not a fluke. You know, guys break out in year three again. I talked about that on a lot of the wide receiver shows this year. Who's going to be this third year breakout. Of course, Quinn Johnson never sniffed any of those articles or conversations because I thought it was. Thought it was done. I thought, I thought it was. Case closed, man. Like it's over for Johnston even though he improved his sophomore year. So that was something that I overlooked in my analysis of Johnson. He did improve and he continued to improve into his third season. So I think that he is here to stay for the Chargers. So he would be a hole for me and then the last player would be the cell for me. Who was the last guy? I guess by default.
Ryan Warmley
Who's Jordan Addison?
Andrew Erickson
Jordan Addison. Yeah. Going back to what's unsustainable. Well, he had this like massive touchdown or he got. Actually he didn't get the touchdown.
Ryan Warmley
He didn't. He. He almost had the touchdown.
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, he got caught by a linebacker of all positions.
Ryan Warmley
It's his first game back.
Andrew Erickson
No, no. And like that linebacker is like really fast.
Matt Jones
So.
Andrew Erickson
So like Jordan Addison just like catching strays from everybody. Like you got caught by a linebacker like runs like 4 or 5. Like this is a really fast linebacker. And yeah, like your point, it was his first game back. But the Vikings are going on a bye week in week six. The. They're playing the Browns this week. It's not a good matchup. We still have quarterback question marks about is it going to be Wentz who's going to be the quarterback after the bye week? How good is J.J. mcCarthy? So there are just way too many question marks with this Vikings team right now in its current form that you can have faith in Jordan Addison. So if you can sell off the 100 yard game, then that's what I would do.
Ryan Warmley
I just like the player so much.
Andrew Erickson
No, I agree, I agree. I mean, you can have them. I'll trade him to you. You want your own ass in?
Ryan Warmley
No, probably not. Quarterback trio. Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Bo Nix. Who do you like here? Buy, seller, Hold Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Bo Nix.
Andrew Erickson
See Kyler Murray. Can you sell Kyler Murray? It's just, it's just the same thing with him. I don't know all the time where he just. Especially in primetime games, I think he underwhelms like on purpose because he just likes to poke the bear with his fantasy managers. But when you look at his actual production, like it's never like that egregious where he's not actually doing terrible. It's just looks really bad when you.
Ryan Warmley
Quarterback finish so far this season. Quarterback 16. Quarterback 22. Quarterback 16. Quarterback 16. He's been. Quarterback 16 is pretty bad.
Andrew Erickson
That, that's, that's actually worse than I thought it was. Maybe I should be looking more at the box source.
Ryan Warmley
His passing yardage total in the four games this season. 1632-201592-00220 is his best passing game by like a decent margin.
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, but.
Ryan Warmley
And he. And he has not rushed for more than 41 yards in a game to offset that.
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think I would probably try to sell Kyler Murray just because I know that. I don't know. I think this is usually when he's at his best. Right. In September. And if this is his best so far, then that's just not gonna fly. So I don't think you need to have a lot of faith that Kyle Murray's gonna all of a sudden just be this fantasy difference maker for you. So he would probably be the sell. For me. I think Bo Nicks would probably be the. I guess like from a sell high perspective would probably be Bo Nixon just because he's coming off this monster game on prime time.
Ryan Warmley
Did you just say there's a sell or did you say he was a hold?
Andrew Erickson
I mean, what's the market? No one's going to be like, I want to buy Kyler Murray. Like that's the issue. So I guess he's technically a hold.
Ryan Warmley
Okay.
Andrew Erickson
I don't think you're really going to be able to sell him again. If you actually want to get something back of value, it would be selling Bo Nicks coming off a monster game against the Cincinnati Bengals. And then I believe this week they're on the road at the Eagles. I don't know. Can you double check that for me? But I believe that they have a much tougher matchup this week. And Bo Nix is kind of like a roller coaster where in good matchups he thrives, he puts up a lot of points. But then in tougher matchups he looks like a completely different quarterback at times and that can be really fresh.
Ryan Warmley
They are in Philly, so that's a.
Andrew Erickson
Much tougher match of where Bonix basically goes from top 10 quarterback in the week four rankings to now he's like outside the top 15 in the quarterback rankings. And he does offer a decent amount as a rusher where he doesn't totally nuke your team. So this isn't. You have to sell bow Nicks no matter what. But I think that you could probably get. I mean you. Bonix plus for Mahomes. I think I would probably entertain that type of deal if that's something that you could get done. And then the last quarterback would be the. So I haven't really bought any quarterbacks. Jared Goff. Am I buying? I'm not buying Jared. I'm not really buying any of these.
Ryan Warmley
I was gonna say that's surprise. Well, you gotta pick one. That's. That's the game.
Matt Jones
Oh, man, I don't want to buy.
Ryan Warmley
I was gonna say this. The whole time you were talking, I was like, aren't you the anti. Jared go.
Andrew Erickson
And now I have to buy.
Ryan Warmley
Golf has been outside the top 23 or four weeks this season. Of course he is. The week he was inside the top 20, he was number one against the Bears, obviously, but he's been outside the top.
Andrew Erickson
You're mean to buying Kyler Murray because he's facing the Titans this week. Is that. Is that really what is going to be the case here? I mean.
Ryan Warmley
Got you.
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I guess. I guess the joke is on me that I now have to buy. So yeah, I guess I'm gonna buy Kyler Murray because he's the cheapest. Gonna sell Jared Goff because he's playing on the road and then hold Bo Nicks because you started off with I.
Ryan Warmley
Want to sell Kyler Murray, but I don't think you could sell him for anything. And you ended with all right by.
Andrew Erickson
I guess I got to buy him now because he's just. I mean he's dirt cheap. So yeah, this was a tough one. I don't like any of. I don't want to buy anything. I mean, truth be told, I don't.
Ryan Warmley
Like any of them either.
Andrew Erickson
I don't want.
Ryan Warmley
That's why I made you.
Andrew Erickson
I don't want to buy any of these quarterbacks, truth be told.
Ryan Warmley
Like, they're all within the same them, those three, plus Daniel Jones. So I didn't want to include because we did them last week are, you know, back to. Back to. Back to back in the, the rankings. So that's why I included those three. And I don't, I don't really like any of them. All right, tight end trio to wrap things up. Dallas Goddard, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid. Again, that's Goddard, Andrews and Kincaid by seller hole.
Andrew Erickson
You're just giving me the dumpster tight ends and quarterbacks that you're making. You're forcing me to buy when I don't want to buy any of them. I guess I buy.
Ryan Warmley
Last week I did. It was like Warren Kraft and Florida or something. So I was like, let's, let's go down a little, you know, Ronda Gadson make you. Make you work.
Andrew Erickson
Tyler Conklin.
Ryan Warmley
Yeah.
Andrew Erickson
Which Chargers tight end do you believe?
Ryan Warmley
Charlie. Charlie Kohler. Yeah.
Andrew Erickson
I'm going to sell Mark Andrews as I always do. Lamar banged up, whatever you have. Isaiah likely, who did come back to the lineup last week, now didn't really do much in the box score, but I think that his usage is going to increase and that's going to hurt Mark Andrews in the long run. So Mark Andrews probably be the sell for me.
Ryan Warmley
But by the way, let me interrupt you to say that there was a report while we were recording here on Tuesday morning that Lamar could miss two to three weeks with hamstring injury is likely, not guaranteed, but likely to miss Sunday's game against the Texans.
Andrew Erickson
Okay. Yeah. So just another reason to just try to get off the Andrews bandwagon because we know what his appeal is. It's with touchdowns. What's going to happen when you don't have Lamar, your team scores less touchdowns. So that would be a big concern for me.
Ryan Warmley
They're going to get the doors blown off him next week against the Rams if Lamar's not back. I'm telling you, I don't care what that line is. Take, take Los Angeles.
Andrew Erickson
So selling Mark Andrews, I would buy Dalton Kincaid just because he has Josh Allen as his quarterback. Like, that's really the only reason. Because Dalton Kincaid played 37 of the snaps last week. He doesn't have great route participation, but he has Josh Allen as his quarterback, like I said. And he gets targeted at a high rate when he does run routes. So Kincaid would be the buy for me. And then Goddard would probably be the hold similar to Kincaid. He has. Well, I shouldn't say he necessary plays with a great passing quarterback because that's not really the case with this Eagles offense through the last couple weeks. But he does catch touchdowns in an offense that does score points. So I think Goddard will probably be the hold for me. I mean he's a good plug and play tight end and historically speaking, he always kind of ends up finishing as like a back end tight end one most season. So I, I think that there are worse options you could have than Dallas Goddard. So he would probably just be the hole for me.
Ryan Warmley
All right, we'll wrap things up there for Erickson. I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Be sure to check out part one if you missed it either on YouTube or on the audio side where we talked about running backs and Monday Night Football. But yeah, we'll get out of there on that and we'll see you again next week. Thanks for tuning in. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free will to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
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Hey, this is Matt Jones and I'm Drew Franklin and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week that is exactly what you're gonna get. Listen NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here and I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Six. We take you inside the game. From breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building, philosophy, philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sundays. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Dan. He's Ty.
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Episode: Target Tetairoa McMillan at a Discount? | Week 5 Buy Low + Sell High Wide Receiver Targets (Ep. 1744)
Date: October 1, 2025
Host: Ryan Warmley
Guest Analyst: Andrew Erickson
This episode focuses on Week 5 buy low and sell high targets among wide receivers in fantasy football, with some coverage of quarterbacks and tight ends. Ryan Warmley and Andrew Erickson break down key trends, player usage, and actionable strategies to help listeners capitalize on market inefficiencies, especially in the wake of underperformances or misleading box scores. The show features deep dives on emerging rookies, veteran concerns, rest-of-season outlook, and strategic trading around bye weeks.
“I think that he's set up for a breakout spot... Last week we called the Ashton Genti breakout spot for a rookie. This week it's going to be Tetairoa McMillan.” (Andrew Erickson, 03:36)
“I'm pulling my hair out because it's one of these... He had the opportunities, just they didn't end up coming to fruition. So that was frustrating. But what happens when we see players, receivers specifically, have games like this is they end up just popping the following week.” (Andrew Erickson, 06:47)
"If you have DJ Moore, you're hoping he gets traded at some point... I think I'd rather just get out of the DJ Moore business while I can." (Andrew Erickson, 13:21)
"If he doesn't rip off that big yards after the catch or he doesn't catch a touchdown, you're going to be left with a very disappointing effort." (Andrew Erickson, 18:24)
“I like the way that the Chiefs offense is headed in the trajectory that they're going, getting their guys back and healthy.” (Andrew Erickson, 24:15)
For more analysis (including running backs and MNF breakdown), listen to the show’s part one.