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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
The 10 BIGGEST Fantasy Football Questions | 2025 NFL Season Preview (Ep. 1681)
01:01:43
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- [00:00]
Derrick Brown
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:06]
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- [00:35]
Ryan Wormley
Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Wormley, joined by Pat Fitzmaurice and by Derrick Brown. Guys, we are talking one of my favorite episodes to do every single week with you guys, of course, but also every single year we do kind of a preseason version and that is our biggest questions. We will be doing this as our Friday show like we have for the last couple of seasons. It'll be the three of us running it back again this year, which I am very excited for. This is our second year, I think, doing the sort of preseason version of it where we take a more macro level view, kind of looking ahead at the whole season. Some of our biggest questions that we want answered and we think answering these will go a long way towards kind of defining the 2025 fantasy season. I want to be clear for everybody, due to some scheduling stuff on my end with family in town with we are taping this several days early. I know sometimes we get called out for that. Typically it's something we try to avoid. In this case it is unavoidable with the holiday weekend and just a lot of stuff going on this week. So we are taping this on Wednesday morning. I want to be very specific about that just in case, you know, news changes. Obviously, you know, this is cut down week. There's trades still going on as of this morning that we saw. So with stuff kind of still changing pretty quickly here, I wanted to be very clear just in case between now when this is released early into next week, if there's anything that's changed, that is why dbro, how you feeling buddy?
- [01:56]
Derrick Brown
Doing good, man. Yeah, I mean we're not getting into the news and stuff, but I will just leave it at the people understand the timestamp of when we're recording this. Some very good news trades hit baby. Some wide receiver wheels up this year.
- [02:09]
Ryan Wormley
D Ro and I are doing some other shows later today that he will be, I'm sure talking a lot more about some of these trades. I can. Yes sir. Can be sure. Fitz, how about you?
- [02:19]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Doing great. Got drafts coming up and even though, you know we're recording this early, it's still going to come out when people still have some drafts left. So maybe this can help steer people one way or the other on some players. But man, we are, we're getting really close and just knocking out the final of these drafts. I think I've got one like every night from now until the start of the season. It's crazy.
- [02:39]
Ryan Wormley
I've got a lot of mine done. I do have a few, of course, heading into the last weekend, but I do have like a lot of them done. There's not as many kind of in this final week or so that I feel like I usually have, which I actually kind of regret. I wish I had more. I'm like, I don't want to be done with drafts quite yet, so I'm jealous of those who still have a bunch to come. Quick reminder for everybody that all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasyprose.com rankings Also, if you haven't seen this kind of iteration of the show before, one of these kind of biggest questions episodes, the reason we do shows like this is because I see my my role as host is I get sort of the chance to ask questions that I think our audience would want to ask. These are just kind of like the key questions that I think people are asking us or would want to ask or would want to hear your guys's opinion on Goal with the show like this is to come up with 10 questions that I think our listeners, if they had the opportunity to be in a conversation with Pat Fitzmaurice and Derrick Brown, would say, hey, what do you think about X, Y or Z? So let's jump in to X, Y and Z. Right now we've got 10 questions coming your way. Starting off with which offensive mastermind is going to make a bigger fantasy impact in Year one? Ben Johnson in Chicago or Liam Cohen in Jacksonville? Fitz, I'll start with you.
- [03:49]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Who? I'll say Liam Cohen. Two of the best play callers in the game, Liam Cohen and Ben Johnson. By no means is this meant to throw shade at Ben Johnson. I just, I don't have unwavering confidence that the Caleb Williams Ben Johnson marriage is going to work. I'm optimistic. I don't know for sure can Caleb get the ball out quickly. Sometimes it seems like he just isn't wired that way and wants to do things off script. But then there are times when he plays on script and looks amazing. Like the Bears play the Bills in the second week of the preseason and Caleb's opening drive was just a thing of beauty. Ball out quickly to open receivers, perfect strikes on time. Everything looked great and now Caleb has an offensive line that should give him the protection he needs to turn every drop back, you know, like he's not going to turn every drop back into a scramble draw with this offensive line, but we'll see. I don't like, I don't know, I don't like making decisions based on vibes in my fantasy drafts, but there have been some weird vibes with Caleb. Like he and DJ Moore just don't seem to have much chemistry together. I don't know if Caleb can play the way Ben Johnson wants him to play all season, and meanwhile I'm pretty optimistic about the Jaguars. Liam Cohen worked magic with the running game in Tampa, so someone in that Jacksonville backfield is probably going to be a valuable fantasy asset at a really good price. And maybe it's two of them giving us fantasy relevance. The slot receivers in Liam Cohen's offenses always eat, which makes me terrified that I haven't been high enough on Travis Hunter. And maybe Trevor Lawrence finally gives us fantasy numbers befitting a former number one draft pick.
- [05:26]
Ryan Wormley
Dbro, what do you think? I feel like the immediate answer to this question for most people just based on reputation and how much these guys have been talked about over the last couple of years would be Ben Johnson. I think he carries the just kind of the heavier, like I said, weight of expectation of like this guy is the chosen one that's not in the McVeigh Shanahan tree. He's like the next guy. But Liam Cohen has done a great job at, you know, in multiple stops. Now do you feel like one of them is going to have a stronger impact in year one?
- [05:56]
Derrick Brown
Yeah, I think everybody's going to expect like one of us or both of us should have said Ben Johnson, but I'm with Patty on this one. I think it's Liam Cohen and this is not like again this is not shade against Caleb Williams. But you know, I know all the offensive overhaul. The other thing about this is that like if we take out like zoom out and get the hundred foot view of this, there's a lot of moving parts and pieces to all ask to gel extremely quickly for Ben Johnson. Like we got two rookies, both of which were sidelined for part of camp or part of the preseason because of injuries and what have you trying to assimilate to this offense, the quarterbacks trying to get on the same page with DJ Moore and all the weapons and the offensive line needs to gel. So it's like I I'm with Pat. Like I have some hesitation. I have the entirety of the off season about all the Ben Johnson's team and this isn't again shade, like I know everything he did in Detroit and stuff like that. I still think Dan Campbell doesn't get enough credit for that. But I want to go talk more about Liam Cohen here because I think the marriage here and Trevor Lawrence, who dude everybody talks about. Okay. Caleb Williams had to deal with Shane Waldron, bro. Look at what Trevor Lawrence has had to deal with. It's been terrible head coach, terrible head coach, bad offensive design, bad offensive designs. The same things you could say for Trevor Lawrence, except it's been happening for longer. And with Liam Cohen now coming into town, I think he's going to give Trevor Lawrence a lot of easy buttons in this offense and a lot of things that are going to help just by offensive design. Like you look at Jacksonville last year, they were 17th in design target rate. So again giving Lawrence easy buttons with when things break down or just easy completions in general versus come on man, like I mean again there that number is going to go up with Tampa Bay or excuse me with Jacksonville this year. And then if you look at what he did with as well as not only the design targets but also motion, they're going to utilize motion. So whether it's design targets in this offense, a lot of that's going to go to Travis Hunter. Easy buttons for him and Trevor Lawrence and the motion, they're going to be offensive wrinkles. And you could say the same thing for Chicago. I'm not saying that that's not going to happen, but I think the dearth of that kind of stuff in Jacksonville compared to what we're going to get now with the Jaguars is going to be light years difference for Trevor Lawrence this year.
- [08:13]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, like I feel really strongly too like about that point about it having just been longer going on for Trevor Lawrence because I feel like a lot of people are just emotionally out on Lawrence and saying like listen, like it's never going to happen. He's a mid quarterback, he's not worth it in fantasy. And I'm like, like he and Caleb Williams are both for the first time with what we expect to be a strong play calling head coach who can really help them flourish. Just the fact that it took till, you know, year four or five for Lawrence as opposed to year two for Caleb, to me there's not much of a difference there. I understand logically why people might feel like they've been burned on Lawrence already. But I. I want to give him this opportunity now. If it doesn't work this year, I don't think I'll ever be going back to that well, but I want to give him another chance here, given that this is the first time he's been with a play caller like Liam Cohen.
- [09:02]
Derrick Brown
Well, and. And one. One more thing just before we. We turn the page on this also, I. I think unanimously, we all agree here. Vibe check. Like, just how things just feel about Jacksonville and Chicago. Tell me the vibes aren't better for Jacksonville with Liam Cohen, like, versus some of the things we've heard Ben Johnson say and everything around that team. It feels like a total 180 here. Like, two totally different. Like, are. Are y' all in a disagreement? Like, the vibes are definitely better in Jacksonville than Chicago right now? I think it's easy.
- [09:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah. I mean, I think I'm here in the Chicagoland area, and I feel like some of the Bears fans can feel sort of that the vibes are maybe not great with this offense and with Caleb.
- [09:43]
Ryan Wormley
Chicago's one of the most fascinating teams to see, both early in the season and I think how they adapt throughout the season. I'm really curious to see what this team looks like in 2025. Let's go to our next question here. Who is one player that you each feel like you personally have not really talked about on shows this draft season and want to weigh in on? I feel like there are a lot of name that we just kind of gloss over because we're not really debating what their rankings should be. Maybe we have opinions on if they can outperform it or good targets or not. But, you know, we've done a lot of shows together and with other people for the last, you know, several months, and I feel like there are names that stand out that, like, you know what? He hasn't really come up and on any of the shows I've done. So we'll start with you on this one, dbra, who is one player that personally, you feel like you have not really talked about enough this offseason.
- [10:28]
Derrick Brown
So I know that we talked about him. If anybody has already tuned into the most recent episode of Fantasy Draft Court, we brought him up there. But I want to bring his name up again because I feel like I. I've come around. I bumped him up in ranks. This isn't Recency Bias, but I want to talk about Cortland Sutton because I haven't talked about him much this off season. Like, he's not a name that, like, when we've been building show outlines where I'm just like oh, must talk about Cortland Sutton today. Like so I, I definitely want to get this in before week one and people understand. Like I know I'm coming into the party late, I know people have been talking about him all offseason, but I've come around on Cortland Sutton and part of this is not the heavy target Cherry saw in the preseason. Part of this is also and Patty, you've been on this the entirety of the offseason so giving your flowers here. I did drop Evan Ingram the 64% route per drop back rate in week three of preseason did sound some alarm bells for a guy like that's going to limit him and you're going to see, I mean really that's if he runs in the 60s all year, you're seeing a Dalton kid Cade kind of situation. I hope that that's not the case and I remain above consensus. But again, all roads lead back to Cortland Sutton where if Ingram's not a full 80 to 90% drop back player, they're running in Pat Bryant, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims opposite of Sutton, Sutton still is the clear wide receiver. One where I looked at this previously this offseason and said dude, if Evan Ingram steps up next to him it's going to impact Sutton where I'm now I've flipped how I'm looking at this situation and I'm like well dude, Sutton is the clear one here and we should all feel good about that. Because when Bo Nicks was really good last year, Cortland Sutton was humming along as a strong wide receiver too. In fantasy as the wide receiver 20 in fantasy points per game, you look at every single per route metric he was top 22 and basically everything you could pull up. And then if you zoom out even more the volume that he got in the role that he had, he was wide receiver 9 and expected fantasy points per game. So if Nicks in this offense take a step forward and Cortland Sutton is still the preferred guy when they get in near the red zone and he is the clear number one option and the only full time option, he could be a wide receiver one this year that you're drafting as a wide receiver too. Heck maybe in some rooms because of the sexy names and how news is going and stuff like that, you might be able to get him on some teams especially if you go wide receiver heavy early as a wide receiver 3 if he has that type of season he could define some leagues. This year.
- [12:56]
Ryan Wormley
His real time ADP is actually his wide receiver 24. So that is obviously very close to. And it's like a spot. It's actually less than a spot according to Real Time ADP, ahead of D.J. moore at wide receiver 25 and McMillan at wide receiver 26. So the point is that he is very much. It is possible that he could be a wide receiver three the way he is drafted.
- [13:14]
Derrick Brown
Oh, he will be. Because with the news, like, Ted's going to hop him. Ted. Ted will hop him in.
- [13:20]
Ryan Wormley
ADP is, interestingly, the name, like, not the only name that I thought fit this category, of course, but he was actually the first one I thought of when I was coming up with this question was like, I feel like I have not mentioned Cortland Sutton's name on any show this year. So that's interesting that, that he's the one that you pick. And I think he's a great fit for this category, like I said, for all the reasons that you kind of laid out. Fitz, what do you think?
- [13:43]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I'm more bearish on Sutton than Deebro is. His best career Finish in fantasy PPR, fantasy points per game is wide receiver 26. And he had a pretty deep average depth of target last year of 13.3, I think it was. And, you know, like, Bo Nix is a guy who I think is maybe more comfortable throwing short than long, but Sutton, like, dominated the deep targets last year. Is that still going to be the case if, like, Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin are getting these bumps in playing time like it looks like they will this year? Because those guys are both faster than Cortland Sutton and can get downfield maybe a little quicker than Cortland Sutton. Can I just. I don't know. I think he's being like, I have no beef with his price. I just don't think he's like a screaming buy with where he's going right now.
- [14:31]
Ryan Wormley
Maybe ran a little hot with touchdowns to end the season, too. Like, I know he was doing other stuff. I don't want to make it seem like he was just a touchdown merchant, but there were a lot of touchdowns in there. I felt like every week he was getting one. So maybe that is some, like, subconscious expected regression from people and that's why they're not talking about him as much. I'm not sure if that plays into it as well, but, you know, deeper. You kind of mentioned, like, if. If he maintains his red zone role, then, you know, that's. That's a path to being really profitable. Where he is.
- [14:57]
Derrick Brown
I, I will also mention. So I went back yesterday and I watched all the, all 22 from Marvin Mims in the preseason because I was like, look like, dude, if he's going to be a full time wide receiver in this offense, then okay, what's that going to look like? I, I'm not in on Marvin Mims at all. I think his role in the preseason dude was running a lot of clear outs, a lot of stuff where he was running deep to create space for screens and other players he wasn't the first read outside of. I think it was one, maybe two screen targets. So it's like, I, I don't think that he has a high calorie role in this offense. So Marvin Mims isn't even honestly in the equation for me. I, I do see that like where Pat's coming from with. If, if there were any threats to Cortland Sutton in this offense, I would say it's Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant. It's not Marvin Mims for me.
- [15:42]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, what player did you pick for this?
- [15:44]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Well, it seems like Debro and I haven't beefed enough on these guys because we also talked about this guy at draft court and we hadn't really talked about him much all season. And Norm, it'll be good to have you in on this convo because it's Mark Andrews of your Baltimore Raiders.
- [15:55]
Derrick Brown
I knew you were going there.
- [15:57]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, it's so. I don't know. I just think he's a bad bet and I never want to bet on the repetition of a big touchdown season. And if you strip away the 11 touchdowns the mark Andrews had last year, like things were pretty bad. 3.2 catches and 39.6 yards a game. His worst numbers in those categories since his rookie year in 2018. And there was not a single game last year in which mark Andrews reached 70 receiving yards. And there were only four games where he had 60 or more yards. Like, remember how people were dropping Mark Andrews early last year? But then we got the touchdown avalanche. Everyone was like not to do it. Yeah, I mean like we did get the touchdown avalanche and that was great. The people with patience had paid off. And I, I know Andrews might not have been at full capacity early last year. He had the season ending injury in 2023, then the car accident last summer. But I think we should heed the drop off in catches and yardage and steer away from this rather shaky fantasy profile. He plays on a run heavy team. He shares targets with a really good tight end on his own team and Isaiah likely, like Tucker Kraft is going a full round after Mark Andrews and drafts according to fantasy Pro's real time adp. Tyler Warren is going around and a half later. Those guys have big time upside and they are trending up for their careers. Mark Andrews is trending in the opposite direction. Like pass on Andrews and take an exciting young tight end a round or two later.
- [17:31]
Derrick Brown
Patty, could I go. Go ahead, Worm.
- [17:33]
Ryan Wormley
Well, I was just going to say that it sounds like based on the fact that you guys debated this, that DBRO is going to lean closer to my side, which is a pro Mark Andrew side, which I actually wasn't early in the off season. I have become a much more pro Mark Andrews drafter later. I do want to quickly say I actually really like the strategy of waiting and getting Tucker Craft and Tyler Warren. I think those guys are great values that I want to be targeting late. I think they are real breakout opportunity, you know, investments at the tight end position. So it's not that I disagree with that sentiment, Fitz, but I do think of the other names in this range, Hawkinson, Kelsey Ingram, guys like that. I think Andrews has a really strong case to be at the top of that tier relative to where those guys are going, you know, in drafts as sort of that middle class of tight end for a lot of reasons that I'm. I'm excited to hear D roll out.
- [18:22]
Derrick Brown
Yeah. So Fitzy, I will say after our convo on fantasy draft court, I did go back to Mark Andrew and, and I, I'm. I'm going to counterpoint and push back a little bit here. So weeks 10 through 18, I talked about in that episode how Mark Andrews bounced back all the efficiency metrics, everything looked great. He had a 60% route per drop back rate. I do think that that climbs this year, assuming health with Isaiah. Likely also probably. I don't know if we see a healthy version of likely for the entirety of this season, but a 60%, 66% route per drop back rate, I think that at least climbs back into the 70s, maybe a tad higher, but at weeks 10 through 18. Fitzy, you talked about the yardage and stuff. Can I interest you in a player that in the back half of the season that was on pace for 816 receiving yards and that would have placed him as six most last year if he'd have done that for the entire season. Fitzy?
- [19:15]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean, I, I don't know.
- [19:18]
Derrick Brown
Like, I mean I get the arguments against. I just think he has at least one more good season left in him.
- [19:26]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean it's not really the age. So he turns 30 next week. So I, I don't think it's an age cliff thing. I mean he's, he's a lot younger than Travis Kelsey. I get it. I mean like they're just worm so.
- [19:39]
Derrick Brown
I mean he still got.
- [19:41]
Pat Fitzmaurice
There wasn't. There were just not like needle moving games with the yardage and like he didn't do much in the playoffs for them last year either. It's just, I don't know, I like.
- [19:52]
Ryan Wormley
That'S putting it mildly.
- [19:54]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah. Oh well, obviously there was. Yeah. So I just, I'm not digging it, I'm not feeling it with Mark Andrews.
- [20:02]
Ryan Wormley
I feel like here's my thing with Mark Andrews because you talked about the touchdowns fits and we'll go a little quicker on some of these later questions. I don't see where the touchdowns are going to go unless you think that DeAndre Hopkins is coming in and catching 12 touchdowns. Like we still expect this all the off season. Like ranking of the top 10 offenses in football. This was either one or two in every ranking. You know, Lamar Jackson is coming off his best season ever. He's still in his prime. Yes, they are still going to rush for a lot of touchdowns but Derek Henry did that last year and there was still plenty to go around for everybody else. Like even if the passing numbers come down a bit, there's still so many to go around and I don't think they're ever going to go to Zay Flowers. That's not the way he's used. Isaiah likely is deal like he has this injury. They don't have any incentive to rush him back. This is a team that only cares about January and you know, maybe they'll end up being to their detriment this season. We'll see. But like this is not a team that is overly concerned about what their record is at the end of September. It's about making it to the Super Bowl. So I don't think they're going to like push him back even if he's on the field giving him this crazy usage. So like I do think there's a Runway here for Andrews. If he is like much healthier than he was a year ago going into the season. Isaiah likely isn't this huge thorn in his side at least early on. He's still the clear number one I think red zone target when they pass the ball. Like I think the touchdowns are still going to be there. I think it would take an injury for him to be like taking A significant step back in the touchdown department.
- [21:25]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Right. But Lamar's 41 touchdowns last year were a career high by five. And in 17, more than he had in 2023. He only averaged a touchdown and a half throwing per game in 2023, less than that in 2022 and 2021. So I just, I don't, I guess I disagree with the notion that there's automatically going to be a touchdown bonanza to go around for the pass catchers on the Ravens and, you know, like, I don't know, Bateman, Flowers, they're going to get some. So we'll, we'll see. I mean, he could, wouldn't totally shock me if Mark Andrews got to double digits again, but like, if that's what you're basing drafting him on the expectations of a big touchdown season, I just feel like that's a house of cards.
- [22:11]
Derrick Brown
I think the, the touchdown regression will hit Lamar, but I think if I'm looking at outlier kind of players where I think once they get in the red zone, I think it's very clear to me that the ball is either going to Derek Henry and they're going to run it in or it's going to Andrews. I think the obvious touchdown regression candidate for me in that offense and I do the, I do think that Lamar, his passing touchdown rate has to drop some this year. I do think that it's probably going to be Rashad Bateman that feels that squeeze you can get in the game.
- [22:39]
Ryan Wormley
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- [23:24]
Derrick Brown
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- [23:57]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz. Besides the Bengals, who is this year's Bengals? A high octane offense, bad defense, sort of circus team that will bring us a lot of fantasy goodness.
- [24:07]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm going to get two different answers here. Go to Debro first for this one and I can answer whichever team he doesn't. I know he's going to pick one of the two.
- [24:13]
Derrick Brown
You know, you know the team. I'm probably going to go with. You know the team.
- [24:16]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I think I do.
- [24:17]
Ryan Wormley
Who do you have?
- [24:18]
Derrick Brown
Dude, it's a Cowboys. Cowboys are the easy answer. I tweeted this out a few weeks ago, dude. I mean, regardless, whatever happens with the Micah Parsons, if that. If he gets traded, then, dude, it's wheels up. But this, this is so predictable. Like, we know Dallas is going to pass the ball. Look at the running back room. Look at the players that they added this offseason. Like, if Dak Prescott is healthy, this is going to be an offense. It's probably going to be top five in passing attempts. It's a consolidated target tree. It just, I mean, it says, dude, everything's there. You got CD Lamb as the alpha. He's going to challenge Jamar Chase as the wide receiver. 1 Overall, George Pickens is this year's T. Higgins. Jake Ferguson can absolutely be a top 12 tight end and everybody can eat in this offense.
- [25:03]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, was that, I assume, one of the picks.
- [25:05]
Pat Fitzmaurice
That was one of the picks. The other is the Carolina Panthers.
- [25:08]
Derrick Brown
Oh, baby.
- [25:10]
Ryan Wormley
So let me quickly say before you dive in, Fitz, that I, I was thinking ahead. I was, I was like, I think the Cowboys are like the poor man Bengals. I think the Panthers are the very poor man. I do think, like, if the Cowboys are the poor man's Bengals, I think the Panthers are the poor man's Cowboys. So I love that you picked this dude.
- [25:27]
Derrick Brown
I didn't see this coming, but I'm here for it. Oh, damn it, Fitzy. I'm here for it.
- [25:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Bad defense. A team that's going to have to win games, like try to win games by scoring 30 points. A trusted play caller. But Dave Canelis, who seemed to like his work with Bryce Young, seemed to kick in late last year when Bryce Young was really good down the stretch. Tetmillon, we have an alpha receiver coming in to Smash and Debro and I are both way above consensus on him. Yes, sir. So long, Adam Thielen. The Cokeheads are out in full force for Jalen Coker. They're even more energized than usual. I think he could surprise people. And we like this backfield. Like, I know Chuba Hubbard is not like this traditional, like super skilled running back, but man, he was good last year. This offensive line is terrific. They gave Chuba like a nice new contract. Like I think they're three or four potentially really nice pieces in this offense. And like this is going to be. This could be a high scoring unit this year. Like it's so strange to say that about the Panthers, but like this could be a pretty potent offense to.
- [26:39]
Derrick Brown
To lay on top of what Fitzy laid out there. Just real quickly when Bryce Young was. Was in his bag last year, they were 13th in neutral passing rate and fourth in red zone passing rate. So like the volume also could be there to support this.
- [26:53]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yep.
- [26:54]
Ryan Wormley
I, I think what 1.2 to. To put a ball on it because I didn't mention this in kind of defining this year's Bengals is the concentrated usage. We know. Well, I mean I, I get like McMillan's a rookie. Like we haven't seen it yet, but like generally speaking we know where the ball is going to go and we think this is going to be a team that has to score a lot and you know, keep up with the defense and that, you know, maybe take a step forward in terms of just like development with Bryce Young, like all that stuff. Like I think the Bengals, I think exc. The Panthers are a great pick and I think the Cowboys are a great pick too. Honestly. Like, like these. They're in different tiers of where you have to draft the players on these teams, which is nice cause you can invest in both offenses pretty. You can invest in all three offenses, Bengals, Cowboys and Panthers pretty easily this season, just depending on where you're making your picks. And I think that's a really viable strategy.
- [27:40]
Derrick Brown
Such a good call, Fitzy. I love that call so much. Didn't see it coming either.
- [27:45]
Ryan Wormley
Well, let's go to the flip side of that question. Who will be this year's most disappointing NFL team for fantasy? And I'm gonna say like non injury reasons. Cause obviously any team can be Disappointing for injury reasons. I'm kind of thinking of last year, like this year's, you know, Texans which did have injuries but like the offensive line was a big reason why there was disappointment for guys like CJ Stroud. So again that one isn't a perfect fit because there was injuries involved in that. But teams that for non injury reasons you are really worried about fits. You can go first on this one.
- [28:12]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I'm going back to the Texans and it's for non injury reasons. Like the offensive line was terrible last year and the off season repairs to that unit probably weren't adequate. I mean the offensive line was bad and they proceeded to trade away their best offensive lineman right away.
- [28:27]
Derrick Brown
And Cam Robinson's on the trade block right now.
- [28:30]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean the, the backfield is a mess. Joe Mixon is hurt. Nick Chubb might never be the same post injury. I don't think Woody Marks or Damian Pierce are capable of being pleasant surprises since they're going to work behind this bad offensive line. And since the Houston defense is probably going to be really good, the Texans pass rate probably won't be very high. C.J. stroud was just thwarted by that bad offensive line last year and might be again like Nico Collins is terrific, but he might be the only Texan worth drafting in fantasy. I don't want any of the other pass catchers in Redraft. Like I like Jalen Higgins or Jalen Noel. Excuse me, Jalen Noel and Jaden Higgins in Dynasty but like Redraft. No thank you. Christian Kirk? No thank you. I just don't think any of them are going to be startable on a weekly basis.
- [29:20]
Ryan Wormley
D Ro I've been ranking Nico Collins above consensus. I just love the player so much and I want to believe in C.J. stroud and everything. If there is a hesitation there, a concern for me, it is the offensive line which could ruin, I mean that could ruin everything. So is this a, you know, he sounded somewhat surprised by the pick. Is this a pick that you disagree with?
- [29:40]
Derrick Brown
I, I mean I'm higher on Houston than Fitzy is. I mean I, I just think we're going to see a bounce back by Stroud based off of the weapons. I feel like everything regardless, not even just the offensive line, like everything that could have went wrong. Like losing Tank Dell right when Tank Dell looked like he was coming on, losing Stefon Diggs right when he looked like he was getting comfortable. Nico Collins being hurt for multiple parts of the year. I think it all just came down to and their depth at the wide receiver position just got eviscerated and they didn't have guys that could get open besides them. So, like, I'm higher on Houston and the C.J. stroud bounce back. The team that I, I think is glaringly obvious for me is the Pittsburgh Steelers. I just outside of Caleb Johnson and a volume bet, I don't want anything to freaking do with this offense, man. You got Aaron Rodgers running around like he's like the poster boy for Cialis commercials right now. Like, it's. It's like he. How is he gonna operate? Like, the one thing that, like in this Steelers, like this marriage of Arthur Smith and Aaron Rodgers, it feels like something where it's just gonna go terribly wrong by week seven. Like, Aaron Rodgers gonna be on Pat McAfee sitting here throwing like not so quiet shade at Arthur Smith and stuff like that. And because you look at what Aaron Rodgers has done throughout the entirety of his career, this isn't just like a take of like the last year or two years or whatever. It's that he wants to operate in shotgun. Okay? Arthur Smith likes to be under center, likes to boot out. You see Aaron Rodgers doing a lot of booting these days. Not so much. You see Aaron Rodgers also that it's been a lot of 11 personnel. He sees the field how he wants to have it. And that's not an Arthur Smith thing. It's condensed formations. It's 12 personnel. It's a 21 personnel. So, like, how is this marriage. Somebody's got to give. How is this marriage going to work? And then you add in all the other personalities on the Steelers, DK Metcalf, if he's not getting targets. When was the last time we actually saw a good wide receiver? And we're doing the same freaking thing with DK Metcalf that we did last year with George Pickens. We did the previous seasons with Tennessee where it's like the only wide receiver we've seen buck the trend and be actually good in an Arthur Smith offense. And is AJ Brown and everybody else has disappointed us. And then we haven't even talked about tight ends here. John Smith, Pat Fryermuth, both capsized by that move. Both of them are not going to run enough routes, not going to get enough targets to be fantasy viable outside of tight end 2 or streaming options unless there's an injury. And then my favorite son, everybody's favorite son over the last few years in efficiency metrics, Jalen Warren, Caleb Johnson is gonna be in the Naji role. So everybody that believes that Jalen Warren is gonna take over and be the workhorse back. I'm sorry, but Pittsburgh is telling you very loudly that's not going to happen. So outside of the volume bet with Caleb Johnson, count me out on this freaking offense. This could be a dumpster fire by week seven. Where it is all personalities and parts or pieces are squawking in the media and fighting and and nothing is going right.
- [32:47]
Ryan Wormley
This is like in Animal House and he's like, no, no, he's on a roll. Just let him go. Like I'm just like letting you keep going. The whole time I just wanted to be like, they can't disappoint me because I have no expectations for the Steelers. Like, I think Tom Brady broke everybody's brains with what to expect for a 42 year old quarterback. Like, I just don't think Aaron Rodgers is going to be good enough to support a strong fantasy season from this team. So like, like everything you said was very great and smart and correct. But like I don't even have the expectations to be let down by this Steelers team. Fitz, any thoughts on the Steelers?
- [33:17]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I pretty much feel the same way. And yeah, like even we'll have more on the Steelers a little later. Oh, I promise. I promise.
- [33:27]
Derrick Brown
Professional tease. Love it.
- [33:30]
Ryan Wormley
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- [34:40]
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- [37:11]
Ryan Wormley
All right, let's go to our next question then. Pick one tight end each outside tier one. Which tier one is Bowers, McBride and KD, who will finish with more fantasy points this season than at least one of Bowers, McBride or KD. So this is not a tight end that we think will be ranked in tier one next year. It could be. That's not the point of the question. The question is a tight end who this year will finish with more fantasy points than one of those elite three guys. Debro, who you got?
- [37:37]
Derrick Brown
I mean, dude, any Titan that we pick right now, outside of maybe some Sam laporta love, is going to sound like a hot take. And I know I might be taking Fitzy's guy here, but I think the answer is Tucker Kraft. If this all comes together and Matt LaFleur says, hmm, best player on a per route basis matchup nightmare physical freak that I need to feature in my offense and make him the focal point of the offense. I'm sorry, Packer fans, it's not Matthew Golden. It's freaking Tucker Kraft, dude. Like he was 20th in Target chair and 27th first read share last year didn't stop freaking Tucker Craft from being top 12. And hold on, let me catch my breath here for a second because it's gonna be long yards per outrun missed tackles, force yards out to catch per reception. Oh, and Design Target Rate 2nd Best amongst tight ends. So you're telling me all these wonderful efficiency metrics and a player in his prime that could step forward and maybe because this is the special sauce to where a tight end can leap over those guys, lead his team in targets. It might sound crazy, but the real answer is freaking Tucker Craft here.
- [38:42]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, as a Packers fan, did you also go with Kraft or did you go in a different direction?
- [38:45]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Different direction, but I like that call. It could be Tucker Kraft, but we've, we've seen rookie tight ends lead.
- [38:54]
Derrick Brown
I knew you were going there.
- [38:55]
Pat Fitzmaurice
PPR fantasy scoring the last two years. Sam Laporta in 2023, Brock Bowers, 2024. How about Tyler Warren in 2025? By all accounts, Warren had a great training camp. And in the preseason he played nearly every snap with the starters. He is not going to come off the field very often. And we're talking about a player who had 1400 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns last season at Penn State, including four touchdown runs and a touchdown pass. Like he's a former high school quarterback. Like he's. They hand him the ball, they just want the ball in this dude's hand because he is a monster like he is. George Kittle with the ball in his hands just like does not want to be tackled. And I think he could be a fantasy monster from the get go.
- [39:40]
Derrick Brown
If George Kittle And Taysom Hill had a baby, his name would be Tyler Warren.
- [39:45]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Why do you have to bring Taysom Hill into this? Debra, come on, let's usage.
- [39:49]
Derrick Brown
If it's usage like he's.
- [39:50]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I guess it is gonna be the.
- [39:53]
Derrick Brown
Gift on social media the entire year. And he can pass.
- [39:57]
Pat Fitzmaurice
That's true.
- [39:57]
Derrick Brown
When he throws a freaking passing touchdown, dude.
- [40:00]
Pat Fitzmaurice
All right. A better, A better, more athletic version of Taysom. Hell, well, maybe not more athletic, but.
- [40:05]
Derrick Brown
I mean, there's something to be said. He might actually be the best quarterback on that roster right now. Yeah.
- [40:11]
Ryan Wormley
For anybody who still has a draft to come up as of the time they're listening to this, I want to really emphasize that, like the tight ends we are talking about repeatedly on this show and on a lot of recent shows are outside of the elite tier are Tucker Craft and Tyler Warren. Like, I can't really emphasize enough that in my opinion, the best strategy at the position. And I actually got like Mark Andrews, like, if he does have a good, you know, touchdown season, maybe he could be the answer to this question. Like, there are other names that are somewhat interesting, but your strategy should be either you're comfortable spending up to get one of the big three, or please target Tucker Craft or Tyler Warren. Those are the two guys if you are waiting at the position to go after. I feel very strongly about that. And the fact that those are the two names that these guys came up with, I think is very fitting for them.
- [40:56]
Derrick Brown
He was going with Warren and I was like, I just want to. I want to hear, man.
- [40:59]
Pat Fitzmaurice
And. And to be clear, it's like we are far from the only people touting Tucker Kraft and Tyler Warren. It's kind of a wisdom of crowd things with like the people who, you know, like study fantasy and everything and are into it. It's just like these guys are better bets, I think, than some of the.
- [41:14]
Derrick Brown
The.
- [41:15]
Pat Fitzmaurice
The Mark Andrews and Travis Kelsey's more bang for the buck at their respective prices. And we're starting to see it, I think, reflected in ADP and home league drafts. These guys have both come up, but I still think they're value priced.
- [41:29]
Ryan Wormley
Speaking of bang for the buck, who is the single best value at any position in drafts this season? Fits.
- [41:37]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, man. One of the things I am trying to accomplish in the drafts I have remaining is to get myself some J.K. dobbins. And I am not throwing shade at Derek Brown's guy, RJ Harvey. You know, I like Harvey.
- [41:48]
Derrick Brown
I hope not, because he's my name for this one. So we're just going to talk about.
- [41:51]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, no kidding. We're just sticking in this back.
- [41:54]
Derrick Brown
Sir, yes, sir. We're just gonna talk about the backfield. Let's go.
- [41:57]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean, we know Sean Payton's backfields have traditionally given us two or more useful fantasy assets and I think that's going to be the case again this year. Like think back to Alvin Camara and Mark Ingram and like I know it's a stretch to, to put R.J. harvey in the Alvin Camaro role, but like Dobbins I think could very easily fit into the Mark Ingram role. Like, he probably does come with an elevated injury risk, sure. But man, if he's healthy, Dobbins is going to give us a thousand combined yards from scrimmage, a good number of touchdowns, a good number of catches, and right now he's going RB3395 overall. So like sign me up at that price.
- [42:39]
Derrick Brown
What if this is. So just.
- [42:41]
Ryan Wormley
Just to let everybody know the real time ADP for these guys right now. Yes. RB33 on JK Dobbins. And this is as of the day, we're recording this just in case anything changes. RJ Harvey, RB22. So Deo, why are you all in on Harvey?
- [42:53]
Derrick Brown
I. I just don't. For the entirety of this offseason, I cannot wrap my head around why we continue to rank RJ Harvey as an RB2. I don't. What in the heck in Sean Payton's history makes anyone think that, like we can't project this backfield. Like I. And I feel like this is all recency. I feel like this is all people were burned by Jalil McLaughlin. I. I was there. Hi with you. They were burned by Javante Williams multiple like two years in a row. I get that. Do you not all remember Alvin Camara? Do you not all remember Mark Ingram? Do you not all remember Reggie Bush? Do you not all remember every other running back in the Saints history that crushed in this system religiously? We can go back and not every single coach we could tell you that Sean Payton was, regardless of who is back there, is going to feed targets to the running back position. J.K. dobbins is not a pass catcher. Can he beat Mark Ingram in this offense? Sure, let's go. But who is going to catch passes in this offense? Dude, they are designing up screens in the preseason. If anybody is sitting here taking notice and actually watching any of the film for guys like RJ Harvey, they had two different plays where they had guys running clear outs and had Harvey on the underneath with 10 yards in front of him and B Knicks sailed the screen both time. Both of those things get completed and RJ Harvey rips off like 15 to 20 yards or something like that. People would be giving more respect to his name. I don't understand it. I haven't understood it the entirety of the off season. I know it seems like I am insane and out of my mind by ranking him as an RB one. It's not going to look insane this year when he's catching passes out of the backfield. This is a top five offense in the NFL and the touchdowns are going through the backfield and everybody's like, man, you know what? We flip over the cards at week five and people like we really should have been drafting RJ Harvey as an RB one. It's crazy, I know because it never happens when we get to Week 5 or Week 6 in the season and everybody says, geez, everything's so different than what I thought in pre draft season. It's so crazy. Except it's not and you could see the signal and you could see this coming. I I really don't understand it.
- [45:08]
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- [46:19]
Ryan Wormley
So let's go to our next question. Which is which rookie are you least interested in drafting at cost this season? Clearly the answer is not going to be RJ Harvey for Debro as he is very high on him and you know, fits, you know, J.K. dobbins, not a rookie but like high on that same backfield. So Fitz, when you look at the rookies, the anti JK Dobbins is. Who are you least interested in drafting at cost?
- [46:39]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Caleb Johnson of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He's going RB27 early seventh round just behind Aaron Jones like Caleb Johnson has been. He's been playing behind Jalen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell in the preseason. I don't necessarily think that's going to last very long, but remember how Arthur Smith held down Bijan Robinson's value in Atlanta and Caleb Johnson is by no means the prospect that Bijan was. Caleb's a good prospect but like I don't want to ride the Arthur Smith running back merry go round again and also like I don't even know if there's that much touchdown upside because Aaron Rodgers really likes to throw it when they're inside the five yard line. So I'm, I'm just out on Caleb Johnson dbro.
- [47:23]
Ryan Wormley
I know that like Caleb Johnson, somebody that you liked a lot during the draft process. Obviously the fit in terms of stylistically in this offense is really appealing. Are you with fits though that just given the offense in general, this might not be the best investment?
- [47:35]
Derrick Brown
No, I mean I'm, I'm still in on Caleb Johnson where he's going. I'm actually still above consensus just because I think it's the volume bet, the touchdown bet. I think that and look, I, I'm not telling you that I'm over the moon and I, I want to deal with Arthur Smith buffoonery because we know we're going to get it in some shape, form or fashion or multiple ways. But I think Caleb Johnson's still a really good bet the guy for me and that the easy answer for this is Colston Loveland. I just looking at that offense, all the different target competition missing part of camp, he's still got to deal with Cole commit. Like for me, like I look at him and I just see even in the best case of circumstances, unless there are injuries now, injuries could open up the pathway and yes, okay, could it crush me if everybody stays healthy in this offense? I don't see him breaking out in his rookie season. I see more of a scenario of Dalton Kincaid where he's locked into like a 60 route share and we're talking about him next year as being like well DJ Moore might be moving on and. No, no, no, no. Like could he be the guy, then I don't see this as being the season to get Colston Loveland like fine. He's going as a tight end too. There are guys that I will draft over Colston Loveland at his cost. Like give me Hunter Henry. Give me if we're gonna go basement level, like just a clear easy path to volume. Give me Mason Taylor over freaking Colston Loveland this year. I just don't see it outside of injuries. I don't see where he carves out a significant enough target share in this offense and gets enough routes to crush me.
- [49:07]
Ryan Wormley
So we picked some rookies that are not like buried in adp but like are a little lower than some of the bigger names of the position. So I just wanted to kind of clarify for both of you guys that we are interested in drafting even where they are going, which is pretty aggressive for a few of these guys. Some of these like bigger name rookies, like obviously RJ Harvey for you D bro, but like Tel McMillan is going, you know, higher and higher. You know, guys like Omarion Hampton have moved up with the Najee Harry stuff. Obviously Ashton Genti was already going high. Travy Henderson has had a ton of helium. I was the egg Buka and Matthew golden has moved up a bit. Like, like there's a lot of these rookies have had a lot of steam and it. It are the fact that you guys didn't pick those rookies that maybe have a little bit more helium than the names you picked, is that reflective of the fact that you are debro interested in investing in those guys?
- [49:55]
Derrick Brown
Oh, absolutely. And I think the steam on those guys is absolutely justified. Like as much as Igbuka and even real time adp. Like we're like he keeps going up and up and up and up. Like if you literally were just watching the trend on real time adp, it's a. I mean that's fine. That, that, that is perfectly fine. Like I will, I will chase him up the board and some of these other players, I have no issues with that.
- [50:22]
Ryan Wormley
All right, let's go to a quarterback question here. We got a couple of them before we finish the episode. Dbro's favorite late QB is JJ McCarthy. Pat's is Drake May. Mine is Jordan Love. So I want us to each make the case for our guy. If it's. You can go first year with Drake, man.
- [50:37]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, I get to do the Drake May sales pitch one more time. Awesome Dance, baby. Yeah. So Drake May started 12 games as a rookie. Left one game in the second quarter with a concussion and in meaningless week 18 played three snaps before getting pulled. The other 10 starts he averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game, which would have been QB13among quarterbacks in points per game, guys who made more than one start anyway. So if we exclude that Week 18 game where he was pulled after one series, he averaged 36.3 rushing yards per start. That projects to 616 rushing yards over a full season. But there is meat on the bone with regard to Drake May's rushing potential because nearly all of his rushing yardage came on scrambles. He had one designed run last season. Alex Van Pelt, Patriots OC Last year he just said, you know, he limited design runs for May to protect him. So now it's Josh McDaniels running the Patriots offense. And a few months ago like Nate Tice of Yahoo went back and looked at the design runs that McDaniels drew up for 31 year old Cam Newton. When Cam was starting for the Patriots in 2020, there were a lot of them. They were really effective. Cam had 12 touchdown runs that year. May only had two TD runs last year. But as the two year starter at North Carolina in college, 16 touchdown runs and 26 starts and as a sophomore May had 698 rushing yards in 14 games. College QBs get sack yardage deducted from their rushing totals. May lost about 200 yards in sacks last that year, so he was really closer to 900 rushing yards in 14 games. Like there is some big time rushing upside with Drake May and he also looked good as a passer last year even though his offensive line and wide receiver core were both really bad and those areas have been upgraded. Like I think he is the late round QB to draft this year and sort of this year's Jaden I know Jaden Daniels was a rookie in May as a second year guy, but he's kind of the Jaden Daniels of this year. A guy who's going as sort of a low end QB1 high in QB2 and has high end QB1 upside.
- [52:43]
Ryan Wormley
You know I love Drake May a ton. I could have easily like picked him for my pick here. I knew you were going to want to because you haven't said your F you if you yeah, I would never, I would never do that. But we, we've been, we've been hand holding on Drake May really the entire off season both on on Redraft shows and on the Dynasty show. I've said before like if you, if I had to pick one quarterback outside the top like six or eight who not is going to finish as a QB one but as the QB one. I wouldn't bet on it but if I had to pick one I would pick Drake May. Like I I think he is the best like you know poor man's Josh Allen potential of any quarterback that is going late if things break right and things might not. There is I think a low floor there. I mean the rushing raises the floor but in general like just the situation and like I think there's a real world where he doesn't reach that ceiling but I think the ceiling is like pretty inarguable against almost everybody else. Dbro, your guy from the very beginning who I would never take from you in the same vein is JJ McCarthy.
- [53:37]
Derrick Brown
Dude, it's just again it's an easy case to be made man. Like look we saw frickin Sam Darnold be QB9 if you take out the final week of the season. He's actually QB8 and fantasy points per game. I mean the system is fantastic. He's, he's Whether you want to talk about Kevin oconnell, what he's going to do is an offensive play call where you want to talk about all the parts or pieces and them continuing to add to it. With recent trades, the offensive line is upgraded and the big thing with J.J. mcCarthy that I want to push back here is this, this false, faulty, ridiculous narrative that I keep hearing and I and I don't know what it's actually based off of. When people are like, you do know that Kevin OConnell is going to run the ball more this year because of what based off of what in his history would tell anybody that that's actually going to happen? What, the addition of Jordan Mason? Come on, that's more of an addition to keep Aaron Jones healthy and to let him thrive in the passing game and take the volume off of a player that they know the injury risk is real. That's more of an indictment on Ty Chandler than it has anything to do to say about how KOC is going to design an offense for a guy that has been calling plays in the NFL for six years. In four of those seasons has ranked top 12 his offenses have ranked top 12 in passing attempts. With Minnesota, this is Koc's ranking in neutral passing rate 8th, 3rd and 5th. So somebody please tell me an actual analytical argument outside of the addition of Jordan Mason that should make anybody believe that the Minnesota Vikings are going to go run heavy this year because I don't see it. And this all goes back to J.J. mcCarthy is going to get the volume, he's got the supporting cast, he has the offensive play caller and he has the talent to be a QB1 this year.
- [55:27]
Ryan Wormley
J.J. mcCarthy Real Time ADP, QB19, Drake May QB16.
- [55:31]
Derrick Brown
Both of those are slap in the face. Just saying it.
- [55:34]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, Jordan Love is QB17 which I know DBRO you are lower than consensus on and your ranking so you're not going to disagree with it. I think that's too low. I think Jordan Love is getting kind of forgotten just because he had some injuries that he was dealing with last season. He was a top five quarterback in fantasy scoring as a 24 year old the year prior to last. He's now still only 26. It wouldn't surprise me if he's still getting better. He now has a first round ride receiver that has apparently looked pretty good this summer at camp and everything he is with, you know Matt LaFleur who is an offensive play caller I really believe in. I just don't like I find myself struggling to say like well I definitely want to invest in Jaden Reed or I definitely want to invest in Tucker Craft or I definitely want to invest in Matthew Golden. I'd rather just get the guy distributing the ball and he's young enough, talented enough in a good enough offense that I think and like even last year with the injury stuff he was QB17 which is where he's going now. So like I think the ceiling is a top five quarterback because we've literally seen him do it before and I think he could be taking another step forward. So I like, I mean I am very willing to invest in all these guys truthfully at cost. It's why I mean quarterback is so insanely deep because you can get these three guys at 16, 17 and 19 at the position. But yeah, that's, that's why I would make the case for Love. But really like any of these guys I think are strong, strong investments. I want to tell everybody about Draft Assistant Draft Assistant connects directly to your draft and provides both real time pick suggestions and estimations on which players might get taken before your next pick. Draft Assistant fully integrates your customized cheat sheets and suggests picks based on your rankings, team build, ADP and other factors dominate your draft in real time without the guesswork with draft assistant@fantasypros.com assistant or in the Fantasy Pros app. Try it for free during your draft by claiming your three day trial of fantasy pros premium@fantasypros.com premium. All right guys, we have two questions left. Got to get out of here shortly. So we'll go quickly. Nobody really considers Patrick Mahomes an elite fantasy quarterback anymore, but he was still top 12 at the position in his last two down seasons. And of course we know what the ceiling has been in the past. Are we downplaying too much the possibility that this Chiefs offense looks closer to their past explosive selves with year two Xavier Worthy, Josh Simmons possibly solidifying left tackle then coming back with a vengeance after the super bowl embarrassment. All that stuff I do want to note and this will be possibly old news for everybody by the time they're hearing this. As of this morning, Adam Schefter did tweet that the NFL is aiming for at least a potential six game suspension for Rasheed Rice. The suspension would kick in at the start of the season. This is still like very early. Like obviously this has gone a bunch of different directions throughout the course of the off season. That's just as of the most recent thing. So Rashid Rice could change this answer, but I still wanted to ask the question even though we might have different information coming up soon. Fitz, do you think we are maybe underrating Patrick Mahomes or at least the ceiling of Patrick Mahomes this season?
- [58:14]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I do think we are underestimating the ceiling of Mahomes and it's it's funny like we have him with Real Time ADP. He's going in the fifth round but like I got him at 706 in a home league draft last weekend and Patrick Mahomes yearly fantasy finishes in points per game among quarterbacks with at least six starts since becoming a starter in 2018. QB 1 QB 6 QB 1 QB 5 QB 2 QB 11 QB 11 Mahomes is drafted QB 6 this year, which is fine. That's where he should be. He is behind that that big five tier and like people are nervous about paying up for another QB11 season. But let's look at what's changed. Mahomes has multiple weapons at wide receiver again. Rasheed Rice is healthy. He'll miss some time when the NFL inevitably suspends him at the end of September, but he's going to play a majority of regular season games and keep turning those easy completions into 15 and 20 yard gains. Xavier Worthy, who had 50 catches over the Chiefs last eight games of the season, playoffs included, is going to use his SPA speed to make big plays. Marquis Hollywood Brown is a big play threat. The days of MVS running wind sprints for the Chiefs are over and maybe the biggest change worm the offensive line. It's been a problem for the Chiefs lately, especially the all important left tackle position. And the Chiefs absolutely stole Josh Simmons at the end of the first round of this year's draft. The best pure tackle in this year's class. He came out of Ohio State with a knee injury that teams were concerned about. Those concerns look like they were completely unfounded. Simmons was ready for camp and he has looked like a stud. He played 26 pass blocking snaps in the preseason according to PFF, zero pressures allowed. So Patrick Mahomes, with his blind side secured and abundant pass catching weaponry, I think he's a big time draft value for the first time since his second NFL season way back in 2018.
- [60:20]
Derrick Brown
Debra this could easily bury me. I'm going to I will absolutely say this because the rushing floor that Patrick Mahomes carries and the passing volume that we know know is going to be there. I I still can't pay a QB6ADP price tag. Like I I think for everything that Fitzy laid out and I'm not saying that he's wrong, like there's a lot of volatility volatility here and if he bounces back he's going to absolutely bury me. He's going to be probably like a top three option. I'm just still not there man. Like Hollywood still can't stay healthy. Rasheed Rice is going to miss six games this season. Travis Kelce is another year older now. Yes, I know he got in shape for the engagement photos and the wedding and the upcoming and stuff like that. That still doesn't mean he's going to be able to turn back the hands of time until where he was 30. An elite option. It can help but it's not going to sit here and change father times. Estimation of Travis Kelsey right now. So there are a lot of parts or pieces. This could easily bury me. I just can't pay the price tag. I still think he's going to be a low in QB1.
- [61:18]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, it's one of those things where I'm like I would I there's so much depth, the position that like I am totally on board with waiting and getting a McCarthy or a May or you know a Dak or or Love or whoever. But I I just wanted to bring it up because I I do think he's getting a little overlooked in terms of what that the ultimate upside ceiling could be this season with what they've done in the off season. We have one last question here guys. Which one player will define the 2025 fantasy season a la Saquon Barkley and Jamar Chase a year ago fits. Who will define this fantasy season?
- [61:52]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Brock Powers. Oh, he was just getting started last year. At the end of the season, I am going to demand a formal written apology from Debro for ranking Trey McBride.
- [62:04]
Derrick Brown
Ahead of Brock Powers with Trey McBride gets 10 touchdowns. So I. I will expect yours as well on. On Fitzy letterhead.
- [62:13]
Ryan Wormley
Okay, well, it's not just McBride. It's KD also. Both of them are ahead of Bowers for. For Debro.
- [62:20]
Derrick Brown
I'm a hater, I guess, man.
- [62:21]
Ryan Wormley
All right, so picking a tight end, that is bold, but I love it. I mean, from everything we, we've literally never seen this guy be anything other than just an elite tight end at every stop of his whole life. So why would that change now? I love the call. Debro. Who's your player that will define the season?
- [62:34]
Derrick Brown
I mean, Fitzy already made. Kind of made my case for me, man. If Carolina is the NFC of Cincinnati, it's Tedro McMillan. I mean, Worm, we've talked about this previously, dude.
- [62:45]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I.
- [62:45]
Derrick Brown
And I tweeted this out and again, like shout out to you. We talked about this on previous shows. I know you're riding with me on this one and I know Fitz, he's not far behind. I know we're all in. In the same party bus here. Tedro McMillan could be this year's milling neighbors. And if that happens, I don't care if you draft him as a wide receiver. Two, if he's a wide receiver. One, he's paying off if you get him as your wide receiver. Three, on teams he will define be one of the players that you had to have to crush in fantasy this year.
- [63:15]
Ryan Wormley
I love it, man. You're not getting this in any other show. Picking a tight end and a rookie, as are players that will define the season the way Saquon and Chase did. That's. That's what we're bringing to you on this show. I do want to let everybody know. If you've drafted already, you can sync your league instantly to my playbook to get custom advice on how to manage your team throughout the season. See your league's top available players, power rankings and more for free. Check the are they playing tool each week to get the latest game day availability odds for for all injured players. If you're premium, you can unlock all sorts of helpful waiver trade, lineup and league analysis tools as well. You can even auto start your team's optimal lineup each week with autopilot, sync your league and dominate every week. Of the season with my playbook@fantasypros.com myplaybook or on the Fantasy Pros app. Try all of my Playbook for free after your draft by claiming your three day trial of fantasy pros premium@ fantasypros.com premium. That'll do it for our biggest questions of the 2025 season for Fitz and Dbro. I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks the for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [64:51]
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- [66:52]
Ryan Wormley
This is an I heart podcast.