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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
The 4 Most Overrated & Underrated Players in Early 2026 Rankings (Ep. 1941)
00:25:48
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- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. The NFL postseason rolls on, but we're already turning our attention to the 2026 NFL season in this episode as we share our top four most overrated and underrated players in the early fantasy pros ecr. I'm your host, Seth Woolcock, joined by the all in kid himself, the athletics, Jake Seeley. And Jake, how are you and what were your initial takeaways as you were putting together your 2026 rankings and also taking a peek at the 2026 expert consensus rankings?
- [00:38]
B
I'm doing good, thank you. And yeah, it's, it's interesting for the fact the wide receiver like we talked about this on the first round podcast that we did and then recap a lot through the nfc, which I know you edit, so you probably heard it at some point, but how volatile that Wide Receiver 2 has become. And it's almost the fact of like you know what, I know we're coming off a season where taking a quarterback early didn't work unless it was Josh Allen. But you can make the argument early tight end, early quarterback, double down at running back just because it's if you take wide receiver 18 or wide receiver 32, you're almost getting the same exact guy these days because of how inconsistent they were. So I think that's the biggest thing is that we're gone from those wide receiver twos having any kind of consistency over the past two years.
- [01:20]
A
Well, I think we're seeing that also make the wide receiver ones a premium. Right? Like right now we are seeing wide receiver receivers fly up boards. The top 12 wide receivers are ranked inside the top 18 picks. That means only five running backs are going in that span. So this is really a year it's shaping up for right now. I'm sure as redraft season turns and we get into July and August, the ADP for those RBs will move up. But right now you can get those running backs at discount. But you do have to pay a premium for those wide receiver ones which again, pushing up those wide receiver twos as well, to Jake's point. And before we jump in folks, a real quick shout to all the die hards out there who are already making plans for next season with us. Please use a quick favor, give this video a thumbs up and also make sure you're subscribing to the channel if you're new. We're trying to get to 300,000 subscribers by the NFL draft and we can only do that with your help. So we really appreciate that. And if you want to follow along with us, you can check out The Fantasy Pros 2026 ECR available@FantasyPros.com Rankings now let's go ahead and jump into Jake's two overrated players and early rankings. And it's going to start out with Justin Herbert of the Lobby Angeles Chargers. ECR QB 8, 71 overall QB 10 and fantasy points per game. Jake Best finish since 2021. Taking the Chargers back to the postseason for the second consecutive year under Jim Harbaugh. But then the organization just told their offensive coordinator Greg Roman and their offensive line coach Mike Delvin, hey, take a hike buddy. And so Jake, you are currently doing the Randy Jackson here saying it's a no from me dog when it comes to Jay Herbo. Why is that?
- [02:52]
B
It just comes down to, well, he's at 8, which is two spots of his best finish as you just mentioned, since 2021. Yeah, those first two years of Justin Herbert are just not who Justin Herbert has been over the last four and who he's just not really needed to be with the Chargers with that run game. Whether or not it's Greg Roman or well not now whether the offensive coordinator is as run heavy. But you know, people point to that all the time and like it's run heavy, run heavy, run heavy. And yet they were 55% pass rate last year, middle of the pack again like they were the previous season. And then the previous season 2024, they were actually one of the past happiest teams inside the goal line situation into 10 to go. So I say that we just saw it uptick, kind of like a rebound ish. And he did play through the injury. But as you mentioned, if even if you take out the injury, he's still only QB9 if you account for the game where like you didn't even think he was 100%. So like that's kind of what I'm saying there. So you're basically taking him at his point or slightly better, which is the best season in the past. The names that he's in front of is the biggest issue I have with it is like Patrick Mahomes is behind him and I know he's coming off an injury, but if we knew Patrick Mahomes was ready for week one, there's no way I'm taking Herbert over him. Dak Prescott just finished in front of him and he's two spots behind Trevor Lawrence. The second half of the season was finally the Trevor Lawrence we wanted to see yeah and as we've talked about on previous and on the recap podcast for the afc is that it takes quarterbacks and new systems, often four, five, six weeks to get into the flow and learn everything and learn where to go. Plus they added Jacoby Myers and for the second half of the season there was only one quarterback with more touchdowns and that was Stafford. Oh, by the way, there was only zero quarterbacks with more fantasy points per game than Trevor Lawrence in the second half of the season. And I'm not even putting him in the top tier, but I would take him. I think there's an argument for Purdy Williams Stafford arguments and then I'll have to save the underrated one because I was almost going to bring him up in this conversation. But there is somebody down at QB16 which I am shocked by and I would take straight up over Justin Herbert.
- [04:47]
A
Interesting. Is there an upside case though if there is a new offensive coordinator, let's say a Mike McDaniel, a Brian Dable, that could maybe change our sentiment because I am with you, that Justin Herbert just does not feel like he has enough upside to be warranting this top eight ADP at the position. Especially now that we don't know the offensive coordinator. We know Greg Roman wasn't going to give him that little extra boost to kick in that upside.
- [05:12]
B
I go back to the fact that like how much more? I guess the biggest thing is like it wouldn't be the pass rate because they just mentioned the fact they've been middle of the pack and kind of pass happy inside the 10. I think we would have to see the McDaniel McDaniel point is maybe somebody who we're seeing more plays per game. But even so, because if you go back to it for those first two years, we're talking about 600 pass attempts, 600 plus, like almost 700 pass attempts. And I don't think the Chargers need them to get there under Harbaugh with their defense and that team with the run game. So again, the offensive coordinator could change a little bit, but the only difference it would be is the fact where a lot of those names behind them is like, okay, maybe now you could argue that, yeah, I'd still take them, still take him over Caleb Williams or still take him over another year of Matthew Stafford and the risk of that age. Like sure, it would kind of be a nitpicky point between the point of him versus those other guys versus getting him up to QB8. The QB8 is my biggest problem with it he should not in my opinion be in that tier with Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Jackson Dart and that's where he is right now. Maybe everybody just wanted to tier him together with all the J's. That's why they just wanted four J's in the tier.
- [06:16]
A
Hey, we we know what, some ladies do love those J names, right? Jake, you obviously are are one of those J names. And you know, I'm kind of with you just because like we also know what the pass Kitchen core is. It's good. It's not great, right? It's going to be Quentin Johnston back on the final year of his rookie deal and then it's also going to be lad McConkey back a Ronde Gadson Jr. We don't know about Keenan Allen or not. Trey Hair is still there, but it's not like they're going to go out and splash in, you know, free agency for more weapons for Justin Herbert or in the NFL draft as well. So you kind of are getting what you're going to get. And I agree that the QB8 overall price tag a bit too rich for my liking. Jake, let's go ahead to your next player which is Justin Jefferson, wide receiver for the Minnesota Vikings, currently at an ECR of wide receiver 611 overall and this is after a finish of wide receiver 30 and points per game. But he still had 141 targets, 84 receptions, almost 1050 yards. Just got killed by touchdowns, right? A career low. Two touchdowns for Jay Jettas in this past season, which is likely why he was only rostered on 5.8% of championship squads. However, it was JJ McCarthy's first season under center, so plenty to build off here. Celie, you just don't seem interested though in sticking around and finding out if McCarthy can bring back Justin Jefferson to life, specifically at the wide receiver 6 and 11 overall price tag.
- [07:34]
B
I think that's just we're drafting as of today and I know that there's a lot that could happen and we have a different conversation in August, but this is as of today we can make it a lot of assumptions. Like I had a conversation in my head which we'll talk about the underrated and I'll bring it up then of like a player I almost put in there but I'm like, you know what? That's me speculating that they let somebody walk in free agency and they do this and they as of today, J.D. mcCarthy is the quarterback. As of today, I don't see much being different for the Vikings because it Comes down to we made the argument, oh, Justin Jefferson, he's so elite. He's done it with everybody. Like I was one of the people, I called him quarterback immune, like, instead of, you know, quarterback proof. Like, made that joke. And Carson Wentz with his one arm was doing great with him. It's just the fact that JJ McCarthy was not JJ McCarthy barely, as you mentioned, if you look at just the games with McCarthy, he's actually wide receiver 38 in points per game, not even double digits points per game. And I know McCarthy can get better in a second season, but also it's the target share wasn't there. That's the biggest thing too is like if you go back to Nick Mullins, at least he was thrown to Justin Jefferson 30% of the time. Like, we weren't even getting 18% of the time with JJ McCarthy. And that's a big issue. So I just look at it and say, yes, I believe Justin Jefferson will, like, I'm not going to say might. He will do better than he did last year. But wide receiver six. Are you, are you kidding? Like with this? This is, this is absurd to me. You are basically guaranteeing he's getting back to Justin Jefferson of his career where it was 80, 90 receptions, 13, 1400 yards, 5, 6, 7, 8 touchdowns. And even then we're talking about somebody, if you looked at most years would usually finish around wide receiver three. So you're giving yourself a wide receiver three to wide receiver six. Gap. And he's going in front of Drake, London, Malik, Neighbors. Okay, injured, question mark. That's fine there. Rashid Rice, Nico Collins, George, picking Chris Olavi. I mean, I just go down the list. Like I Justin Jefferson versus what we just saw. I mean, Tedro McMillan do as a rookie. I think there's a conversation. I'm not saying to take McMillan. It's just to put Jefferson at six. It's just like lad McConkey is at 17. And I feel that's fair given what we just saw. But at least he has Justin Herbert. At least we know who he is. And like that's the biggest thing is like we know who Justin Herbert is. We don't know what McCarthy is. So I feel like we're seeing people penalize McConkey for what just happened this past year. And fair, rightfully, you know, do it. But we're not penalizing, penalizing Justin Jefferson at all. Like, that just makes. This is the. I was shocked to see him at 6, just to be honest.
- [10:02]
A
I get it. I get where you're coming From I will say though, it does feel like those other wide receivers behind him, they also have warts, right? Like, what's Drake London's quarterback situation? Malik Neighbors off the acl. I'm good on that. Rasheed Rice doesn't seem like he can keep his head clean right now. So like, I feel like all those guys kind of have warts. And like for me, not only are we dealing with a young, unaggressive quarterback and we've talked about it on the show, I think it was Joe who pointed out a couple weeks ago that like these younger quarterbacks are much more immune to taking these big risks like as compared to like a Carson Wentz or Joe Flacco who, hey, they got nothing to lose, man. Like they're going to go out there and grip it and rip it, right? J.J. mcCarthy still trying to learn and, and, and have those building blocks specifically in a more, you know, set it and forget it, throw on, on the right read type of offense for Kevin o' Connell here. So I do see it potentially being too high for Justin Jefferson, but also kind of like the Justin Herbert conversation. Is there a world where maybe the Vikings go out and they're like, hey, we need to upgrade on offense around Justin Jefferson? I mean, let's be honest, like Jordan Mason kind of just a guy I think we can say at this point. I, I think we also know that everyone in that backfield, Aaron Jones specifically, is kind of getting over the hill. So I could see them like if they added a really explosive back like a Jeremiah Love or a Nick Singleton in the draft, maybe this offense gets more explosive. I also think Jordan Addison needs to play a little bit better across from take some coverage off because usually you see these number two wide receiver Jakes like the JuJu Smith Schusters of yesterworlds where they're playing with Antonio Browns just like having big seasons and we haven't really seen that from Addison. So is there anything the Vikings could do from a personnel standpoint that would boost Justin Jefferson up your rankings at all?
- [11:40]
B
The only thing would be quarterback. That's it. Nothing else. Okay. Because it comes down to again I go back to the target share wasn't even there. Like if Jordan Addison has a better year. Well, how does that help Justin Jefferson? Sure, of course, like lesser coverage. But again, the target share. TJ Hawkson, healthy target share. They run more target share. Like yeah, that's what I'm going to, I'm just going to keep hammering. That is that the biggest issue is Justin Jefferson's Target Share. Like, if you would have argued and like, I mean, you bring up Nico Collins, which is fair, but like, Nico Collins is 14 fantasy points per game. Hell, Michael Wilson's entire season was more fantasy points per game than Justin Jefferson. And it was basically not even a half of a season. And it just comes down to like I'm looking right now, even on his routes is 25% Justin Jefferson for the entire season. But if you put in J.J. mcCarthy, we're talking about 18, I go back to that 18%. And so it's just the biggest issue is that you gotta figure out who the quarterback is. If it's J.J. mcCarthy. No. And like I said, I'm not putting him down in the 30s, I'm not putting him down in the 20s. It's just I haven't finished my rankings yet. But he's probably going to be right around, like, I think as of right now. Put it this way. Garrett Wilson at 15. There's a conversation. Justin Jefferson versus Garrett Wilson. No, no, I will take just, I will take Justin Jefferson. But you said what, What? Around him. Well, who's the quarterback? What if the jets stupidly. But what if the jets trade for Mac Jones? Like they give up draft and I say stupidly because those draft assets, like, what if they trade for Mac Jones? I would take Garrett Wilson over Mac, with Mac Jones over Justin Jefferson with another year of J.J. mcCarthy. That's just how I'm putting it. That's the conversation I would have.
- [13:16]
A
Okay. And before we keep it moving. If you want to win the ultimate symbol of fantasy glory, the fantasy football championship belt, courtesy of our good friends over at Trophy Smack, the number one destination for epic fantasy football hardware, then this is your moment. This massive gold plated belt is built to make a statement. It's bold, it's heavy, it's guaranteed to turn heads in your league. Don't just win your championship, wear it. To enter, all you need to do right now is subscribe to the Fancy Pros YouTube channel. Drop a comment below on any of our videos, and that's it. We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So make sure you turn on those notifications so you don't miss a moment of all our great content here and to be alerted when that championship belt goes up for grabs and you can flex it to your entire league. Now let's go ahead and shift to Seely's top two underrated players, starting with Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos. Quarterback, 16, currently 106 overall in ECR. This was a run from a quarterback who had a career defining day this past weekend. Jake wins a divisional round game against the Buffalo Bills in overtime only to suffer a season ending injury. Bonix was the QB11 average 18.6 fantasy points per game a year after finishing as the QB9 as a rookie. What to you makes him underrated at QB 16 and 106 off the board. Jake.
- [14:33]
B
So congratulations everybody. You went from making me the Bonix hater last year to now. Look supporter, it has nothing to do with it. It has to do with everything that you just said at the top. Like we don't even need to spend a lot of time on this. He went from QB9 to QB11. The numbers are almost identical to the previous season. His fancy points per game are almost identical to Justin Herbert who we were just talking about earlier. And it really comes down to why is he at QB16? Like you're getting him. QB16 is already. So he had a slight downtick in his passing touchdowns. He actually passed more this year which you could argue the, you know, a few more off targets, the completion percentage but he was dealing with a rotation a wide receiver at number two. And again as of today, because we can speculate sit here. Troy Franklin should take another step forward or whatever it might be and Patrick Bryant but speculatory out the window as of today. He just finished QB11 after having somewhat of a downtick from his rookie season going to the third. Let's just say he's exactly QB11 again. Why is that QB16? He has the rushing upside, he has the potential for these 3, 4, 5 touchdown upside games with one of them being on the rushing side. And you just saw what he did against the Bills defense and who is better against the pass than they are against the run. We all know that. And yes and again this ranking is before the ankle injury which by the way everything sounds like he'll be back well, well before they even get the training camp. So I just look at it as the fact like why is he at 16? Like why like for Jordan Love to be in front of him. No, that's crazy to me. Brock Purdy was basically you got top five or you got QB 15. So if you want to play that volatility game, I actually think that's fair is the fact that Bo Nick should be there with him. Bo Nick should be in the conversation with Justin Herbert. Bo Nick should be in the conversation with all those other names. And it's not even so much the fact that like I'll say this stuff like Underrated. If we wanted to be like, okay, where are you going to rank them? Like QB12. Okay, well that's not a huge difference is you mentioned the overall number 106. Like, these are the quarterbacks we were looking for every single year to get a ninth and a 10th round while everybody's drafting the exact same kind of quarterback in round six and seven. And then you're like, oh, by the way, they all have similar ceilings. And that's really my biggest takeaway from it is that you want to argue Bo Nicks deserves to be at 16. I won't even go hard on that. You know, outside of Jordan love. Like, I want to be like, oh my God, you're crazy. It just comes down to if you're willing to take Herbert at eight rounds, rounds, rounds, rounds, rounds earlier. I'm not. I'm just going to wait to take Bo nix in the 9th and the 10th.
- [17:00]
A
Well, and it makes sense because this is the exact range that we are targeting Drake May at last year. Right. And he paid off in spades and hit his ceiling. And I think the interesting thing about Bo Nix and kind of the slight regression Jake that you mentioned is like he was also playing with the league's best defense. Like, you know what I mean? It's not like they need to rely on him a ton. What are the chances though that that defense potentially regresses. Maybe they get banged up. Like we've seen, you know, Stallworth defenses in the past take a step back the following year after, you know, a potential super bowl run. I don't know if they get to the super bowl this year with the backup now, but, you know, and also I think there's a chance that give Bo Nix another year in this offense. Dude. Like, this is a guy who played a ton of football at Auburn and then Oregon. Like, I truthfully wasn't the biggest Bo Knicks fan coming out into the NFL draft just because I had seen so much that Auburn tape and I was not impressed. But I think when you just get more and more reps under your belt, you're going to be a proven guy. And like I said, in addition to that defense May regressing, Jake, they have a number one schedule next year too, right? Like, they're not gonna be playing cupcakes every single week. Like they wear it sometimes this season. They're gonna have to earn it next year. And I think Bonick's gonna be a big part of that. As to you, it sounds like yeah.
- [18:04]
B
And I think that's the big thing is you just mentioned it too. I wasn't the big. I was wrong on Bonix. I didn't think he was going to be this good in the NFL. So to say that that's why I made that joke turned me into a Bonix guy, everybody by putting him down at 16. And I think that's the biggest thing like whether or not you like Bonix, whether or not you agree with anything we're saying. It's just this is what we should be doing in fantasy. We should be looking for these QB 14, 15, 16 through 18, 19 range, even double tap on some of them. But to get the similar value to quarterbacks that are going rounds earlier with the same upside, the same value, more rushing. I mean Herbert runs but there's more rushing upside with Knicks to a degree. So you're getting that same upside just at four or five round discount. And that's the biggest thing here.
- [18:48]
A
Yeah and we'll talk about it more over on the NFL Draft show right here at Fancy Pros with Derek Brown this week. But this draft class very deep the wide receiver position once again. So I think there are some names that could go to Denver that could really push Troy Franklin and and Pat out of this wide receiver two role and make this offense even more explosive. So let's go ahead and move forward to Jake's final undervalued player and it's Kyron Williams of the Rams. RB 1745 overall last three seasons for Kyron Williams RB 221.3 points per game in 2023 Jake and then RB 10, 17 points per game in 2024 RB 11, 16 points per game in 2025. He was on 14.4% of championship rosters, the 21st highest percent of any player. So he has finished as an RB1 in three straight seasons which is great Sealy, but he has regressed in three straight seasons as well. Blake Corm also takes a huge step forward rush for nearly 750 yards, six touchdowns on 145 carries. But that doesn't seem to bother you, especially at this cost.
- [19:47]
B
No, because you know what we did see is he regressed in points per game but he increased in efficiency and we saw the better yards per carry. He's still the goal line option still 10 rushing touchdowns, still chipped in in the receiving game. Nobody ever wants to give him credit for that. And he's not a huge point. We're talking about 30 receptions, but 30 receptions in three straight years and yeah, two to three receiving touchdowns. So again 14 7. But 147 was RB9 in points per game. Like he's finished top 10 in three straight years. And yeah, I'm not going to rank him top five. I'm not going to rank him near the first tier like he was two years ago. But to put him at 17 is honestly like, I. Like this is egregious to me because RB9 coming off the Rams did what everybody's fear, and I put that in quotes. Fear was, is that we saw more Blake Cormorants, but this is also today's NFL, is that we see a lot of teams with that complementary piece getting 30, 35%. And that's what it was, 35%. The difference is that Kyron Williams this past year at 65%, that's what he was for pretty much the entire year was actually better than it was two years ago. His RB touch percentage from two years ago was in the 50% range. It's down from last year when it was over 70. But even 65, you can count on two hands, not one, but you can count on two hands the amount of running backs that had 65% or more of their touches. And that's the biggest thing is like this is today's NFL. The B John. B. John Robinson, just last year and this past season, B. John Robinson had under 60% of the touches. Like, nobody wants to acknowledge that. But we're like, I know, but we're not killing him. And yes, he had the better season, but all that being said is just these are the backfields. This is the NFL. Like to have Genti, by the way, who wasn't even a top 12 running back, was the leader in RB touch percentage at 73%. Oh, by the way, that can be overrated. The efficiency, what's mattered and the usage what matters, especially at the goal line. So I'm not afraid of Kyron Williams, I'm not afraid of his usage. I won't rank him as a top 10 running back anymore. But in front of Derrick Henry, question mark, I think there's a real argument there. Trayvon Henderson split backfield and we just saw Stevenson. R.J. harvey was fun. Yeah, he did break out, but split backfield. Breece hall, what's his situation next year? Big question mark. Josh Jacobs at this point of his career. I know he gets the work when he's healthy, but that's a big question mark. Bucky Irving, Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley coming off a down year like he should be up there by Genti Cook, Barkley and Omarion Hampton, which I do like his ranking by the way. I am in on Amarin Hampton, but that's the conversation not down here with the Kenneth Walkers of the world. Although Kenneth Walker, watch him, watch him end up on a team and finally be a bell count world. Super excited about it. But as of right now, as of today, Kyron is down behind Travion Henderson and barely in front of ETN Walker, Scatterboo and all these other question marks like that, that and even 17. What was his ranking overall? I even forget I put him in the sheet for 45. You get in the fourth round at the end of the fourth round like all day long. I will take Carl Williams in the fourth round.
- [22:49]
A
Well, I think it's tough with these Rams running backs because sometimes people still have the scars of over investing in someone like Cam Acres, right. Getting the rug pulled out from under them in the last year of the Todd Gurley stint with the Rams as well. However, like they paid Kyron Williams, right? Yeah, they really like this guy. So I think the money talks. I also think like while they enjoy having the one two punch there with Blake Corm, I don't know if Blake Corm's ever really necessarily a 1A guy in the NFL. So I, I really like it. Like, like I was on Blake Corn way too heavy in 2024, had none of them in 2025. So that was kind of a little bit of a regret for me. But I think Kyron Williams, like you said, he should be in a tier above where he is going right now. So I think it is once again a value spotted by the wonderful Jake Seeley that is going to do it for us though on this episode of the Fantasy Pros Fans Football Podcast. Jake, what do you have going on over the at the Athletic that we should be keeping an eye out for over the next couple days to a few weeks, my friend.
- [23:46]
B
Yeah, it comes down to looking at last year and seeing where we went wrong. We kind of did it. We did it by division on all these episodes. If you haven't checked those out, those were a lot of fun where we did every single division and our biggest takeaway is from there. But over the Athletic I kind of look at it more of also my ranking and projection and where they finished and what we went wrong with and how to learn for next year. And so that's a really big piece that I like to do. And by the way, before everybody ever comes to me on the touch percentage when I was talking about the because I know people are I could say I I meant my, I meant to stop myself in my mind because I was like, oh, RB touch percentage are going to be like you're insane. Because Jonathan Taylor had 84%. I was talking about rushing touches for that. Okay, so Ashton Genty was with Jonathan Taylor at 73%. Anyway, that's not the part. So I appreciate yeah, over at the Athletic we're recapping last year. I already did running backs and quarterbacks and next is wide receivers and tight ends. And yeah, not, not gloating of anything, just purely where I was wrong. So people who love to tell me I was wrong, they'll go jump in the comments for that one.
- [24:47]
A
No victory laughs here for Jake Seeley. Always great stuff coming over there at the Athletic. Make sure you guys are getting subscription checking it out over there. And be sure to also check out all the great 2026 content we have coming for you right here on The Fantasy Pros YouTube channel and the audio feed. And while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing to the channel if you're new for Jake Seeley, the All in kid, I'm Seth Wilcock. Take care, y'. All. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.