FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode 1941: The 4 Most Overrated & Underrated Players in Early 2026 Rankings

Release Date: January 19, 2026
Host: Seth Woolcock
Guest/Co-Host: Jake Seeley (“All In Kid”, The Athletic)

Main Theme / Purpose

This episode dives into the early 2026 expert consensus rankings (ECR) for fantasy football, with Seth and Jake each identifying two of the most overrated and two of the most underrated players according to current rankings. They discuss shifting positional value trends (especially at wide receiver and quarterback), explain their analysis and reasoning behind the picks, and offer actionable insights for listeners already planning their 2026 drafts.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Position Value Shifts in Early Drafts

• Wide Receiver 1s Are Premium, RBs Are Discounted:
  • Seth: “The top 12 wide receivers are ranked inside the top 18 picks. That means only five running backs are going in that span.” (01:19)
  • Jake: Wide receiver twos lack consistency now, making the top-tier WRs that much more valuable and pushing RBs down draft boards in early rankings.

2. Jake Seeley’s Overrated Players

a. Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

• ECR: QB8 (71st overall)
• Jake’s Take:
  • Herbert is being drafted near his ceiling. “He's at 8, which is two spots of his best finish…since 2021…You’re basically taking him at his [best] point or slightly better, which is the best season in the past.” (02:52)
  • Issues:
    • Offense: Only “middle of the pack” in pass rate.
    • Supporting Cast: No great pass-catchers incoming; few changes expected.
    • “The names that he's in front of is the biggest issue…Patrick Mahomes is behind him…No way I’m taking Herbert over him. Dak Prescott just finished in front of him…Trevor Lawrence…the second half of the season was finally [what] we wanted to see.” (03:37)
    • QB8 is too high for the floor and questionable upside.
• Notable Quote:
  • Jake: “If we knew Mahomes was ready for week one, there's no way I'm taking Herbert over him.” (03:25)

b. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

• ECR: WR6 (11th overall)
• Jake’s Take:
  • Jefferson’s 2025 was disappointing (WR30 finish; just 2 TDs) and his outlook is tied to subpar QB play.
  • “As of today, J.J. McCarthy is the quarterback. As of today, I don't see much being different for the Vikings…The target share wasn’t there…If you look at just the games with McCarthy, he's actually WR38 in points per game, not even double digits.” (07:33)
  • It’s “absurd” to rank him WR6 right now; he’s being drafted at his previous elite level despite an uncertain situation.
  • Would take him over some names (e.g., Garrett Wilson) but not over others if their QB improves.
• Notable Quote:
  • Jake: “You are basically guaranteeing he's getting back to Justin Jefferson of his career…Even then we’re talking about someone who’d usually finish WR3…To put Jefferson at 6 is just like...I was shocked to see him at 6.” (08:36)
  • Jake: “The only thing [that could boost his value] would be quarterback. That’s it. Nothing else.” (11:40)

3. Jake Seeley’s Underrated Players

a. Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos

• ECR: QB16 (106th overall)
• Jake’s Take:
  • Quietly productive: QB9 as a rookie, QB11 last season; nearly identical fantasy points per game as Herbert.
  • Despite slight statistical regression and injury (expected to recover before training camp), Nix’s value is depressed: “He just finished QB11…Why is that QB16? …If you’re willing to take Herbert eight rounds earlier, I’m not. I’ll just wait to take Bo Nix in the 9th or 10th.” (14:33 & 16:16)
  • Encourages looking for value in QB14–19 range instead of reaching for mid-round QBs with similar ceilings.
• Notable Quote:
  • Jake: “He went from QB9 to QB11…the numbers are almost identical…various QBs are being taken rounds earlier for [the] same upside.” (14:33)
  • Jake: “Whether or not you like Bo Nix…the biggest thing: this is what we should be doing in fantasy, looking for QB14–19 range…to get the similar value to QBs that are going rounds earlier.” (18:03)

b. Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams

• ECR: RB17 (45th overall)
• Jake’s Take:
  • Three consecutive RB1-level seasons (RB9, RB10, RB11 in points per game) despite “regression” in total points.
  • While Blake Corum is involved, Williams’ workload is still excellent: “RB touch percentage [was] 65%…There are only a handful of RBs above 65% touches in the league today.” (19:46)
  • Still the main goal-line back, involved in the passing game. Compared to question marks in the same tier, he’s an obvious value in late fourth round.
  • “RB9 coming off the Rams did what everyone feared…saw more Blake Corum, but that is today’s NFL…to have Kyren at 17 is egregious to me.” (19:46)
• Notable Quote:
  • Jake: “I won’t rank him top 5…but to put him at 17 is honestly…egregious…You get him in the fourth round, like, all day long I'll take Kyren Williams in the fourth.” (21:45)

Notable Quotes / Memorable Moments

• Jake on ranking volatility:
  “If you take wide receiver 18 or wide receiver 32, you're almost getting the same exact guy these days.” (00:52)
• On overrating Jefferson:
  “We’re not penalizing Justin Jefferson at all. That just makes—this is the—I was shocked to see him at 6, just to be honest.” (09:54)
• On Bo Nix value:
  “If you’re willing to take Herbert at eight [QB]…I’m not. I'm just going to wait to take Bo Nix in the 9th, 10th.” (16:16)
• On Kyren Williams as a value:
  “RB9 coming off the Rams did what everyone's fear was…this is also today’s NFL…Kyron is down behind Travion Henderson and barely in front of Etienne, Walker, Scatterboo and all these other question marks.” (21:12)

Key Timestamps

• 00:00–01:19 — Trends in positional value, wide receiver volatility
• 02:12–06:16 — Overrated #1: Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
• 06:16–13:15 — Overrated #2: Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
• 13:15–14:33 — (Contest mention)
• 14:33–18:03 — Underrated #1: Bo Nix (QB, DEN)
• 18:47–22:48 — Underrated #2: Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)
• 22:48–24:46 — Conclusion, further resources, Jake’s articles

Flow & Tone

• Conversational & Analytical: Seth and Jake keep things informative but approachable, with a focus on actionable advice and clear explanations for their stances.
• Candid/No-nonsense: Jake is straightforward (“No, because…” “Honestly, this is egregious to me.”) and frequently pokes at industry groupthink or biases in fantasy evaluations.
• Playful: Occasional humor (“Maybe everybody just wanted to tier [Herbert] together with all the J’s… That’s why they wanted four J’s in the tier.”) keeps the tone light.

Summary Takeaways

• Don’t overpay for reputation—Herbert and Jefferson’s early 2026 prices outstrip their safe production and situation.
• Seek value in mid-round QBs: players like Bo Nix have similar ceilings to more expensive options.
• Kyren Williams, despite sharing the Rams’ backfield, is a rare “safe” RB1/2 at a discount.
• Early drafters should focus on tiers, opportunity, and team context—not just names or recent reputations.

For More

• Catch Jake’s deeper analysis at The Athletic (running back & quarterback recaps/lessons from 2025 upcoming).
• FantasyPros ECR is already up for the 2026 redraft season at fantasypros.com/rankings.

(Note: Timestamps match relevant episode segments as requested.)