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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
The Best of the Fest: Breakouts, Busts, Rankings & Sleepers From Fantasy Football's Top Analysts (Ep. 1658)
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This is an iHeart podcast. Hey guys, let me tell you about the easiest catch you'll ever make. FishingBooker.com with top rated fishing guides across the world, verified reviews, seamless booking and 247 support, FishingBooker makes it easy to plan the perfect fishing trip. So whether you're chasing trophy fish, watching your kid reel in their first catch, or just taking in the sunrise on the water, Fishing Booker makes it happen. These aren't just daydreams, they're your weekend plans. Visit fishingbooker.com and book your trip today. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the best of fantasy fest 2025. It's me, Joey P. Joe P. Zeppia and in case you missed it and you couldn't join us for all of the fun football and festivities on our YouTube channel this week, we've got the best of the Fest for you here on the audio side as well. Or even if you watched it all and you just want to relive some of the great moments. Well, guess what, you are in luck because we are going to roll through some of the best minds of fantasy football, some of their takes on some of the biggest questions and we're going to hopefully give you the right answers here at Fantasy Pros. And if you want to go back and watch the entire Fantasy Fest, don't forget you could do that right now on our YouTube channel. So go over there right now, watch the playlist, have some fun, take notes, get ready for all of your drafts and we're going to kick things off here Today with with J.J. zacharison, the late round QB man himself, talking about some burning questions along with our own Worm and Andrew Erickson. So let's dive right into the fest right at the top. Let's go to our wide receiver question. Erickson, you always hear about how deep wide receiver is every season now. Doesn't actually feel that deep to me this year at least. Maybe compared to other years it's deep, but it feels like I want to be getting guys in the first X number. You, you can kind of quibble with how deep it is. I don't want to be kind of taking a lot of lottery lottery tickets late though. Like I really do feel like the depth is maybe overstated in previous years is maybe the better way to put it. Is this a good year in your opinion Erickson, to hammer the position early and avoid getting burned by maybe a perceived lack of depth by me? Well, I think it's deep at the top if that makes sense because the guys that we usually draft in round one are now trickling into round two. It's just crazy to think that Brian Thomas Jr. Led all rookie wide receivers and receiving yards last year and he's a second round pick. Like that usually doesn't happen. So I think it's deep at the top. When you're looking about, okay, who could be a top five wide receiver this year, I think there's a lot of guys that kind of fall into that territory. I think that it's maybe a list of 11 or even 12 wide receivers. But then to your point about the depth after that, going into the next couple tiers, I think that's where you start to see things kind of get diluted with some of these receivers. And I think it's always important to think about. We're talking about strategies, we talk about late round quarterback, talk about late round running back, talk about late round tight end. We don't talk a lot about late round wide receiver just because it's definitely the hardest one to identify and hit on because you have to get opportunity and talent right. Like you need to hit on multiple things. So it doesn't mean that there's no late round wide receivers that can hit. Yes, there are guys that we like, but it's just so much easier for those other positions to hit. So when you are in those later rounds, I want to be scooping up running backs like that's who I want to be targeting. That's why I want to be loading up my bench with running backs or tight ends if I want weighted at the position and goes back to the point earlier. So instead of going with a early round tight end, early round quarterback, drafting receivers I feel good about and confident about in those earlier rounds makes me feel better about my entire roster when it's all said and done. JJ I'm curious what you think and I don't want to make it seem like there aren't any players I like. Like a Mecca Ibuca going in the mid-40s at wide receiver. Yes, I love that like there are players that I like, but I think you get to even like the mid-20s and just, I'm just reading through in the expert consensus rankings, you know, Tetaro McMillan, Jameson Williams, Xavier Worthy, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, Jalen Waddle, Rashee Rice, Chris Olave. There's upside there, but there's also a lot of question marks and I just don't maybe feel as, as sturdy with the guys after the, the folks at the top in those first couple of rounds. But how do you see the position as deep versus shallow? Yeah, I think that the interesting part about wide receiver this year is I agree with, with Andrew about the idea that it's pretty deep up top. I mean, Drake London for instance, would we be shocked if London ends up as the overall wide receiver 1 in fantasy football this year? I don't think it's like nearly out of his range of outcomes. Even A.J. brown, you know, I just talked about how I like the Philly passing attack. You know, obviously he's banged up right now, but AJ AJ Brown has basically been a 1400 yard wide receiver every year. You know, prorated for the, the games he's missed every year in Philadelphia. The thing that I've really noticed is that when you get to that sort of next tier, there's sort of a dead area maybe after the JSN range just because, you know, Devonte Adams has a lot of question marks right now with Matthew Stafford. Otherwise I would be way into to Adams. But like Garrett Wilson, we're like, okay, what's that looking like? Marvin Harrison Jr. I mean we could see the upside, but there's a lot of question marks about. There really wasn't that much change in that offense, so how can we be so sure there's going to be that much change for Marvin Harrison Jr. And so I, I keep going down that list and then we get to that giant, giant tier that you were just talking about, Ryan, where you have a lot of question marks but you can see clear upside cases, right? Ted McMillan, sorry, Tet, AOA. I don't want to make his mom upset. Tedro McMillan, someone who I, I, I like a lot as a prospect, we obviously can see the upside case. George Pickens in a, in an offense that should throw like 150 more times than the offense that he's coming from. You know, as the two alongside CD Lamb, you could see the upside case for him. Devonte Smith even you could see the upside case for Devonte Smith. Last year when one of Dallas Goddard or A.J. brown were out, he had a 31 target share per game rate. Like the dude is awesome when one of those guys are out. Even when they're not, he's still a very usable player. So what I've kind of done at wide receiver this year is I'll often get it. I mean I'll get at least one in the first two rounds. Typically because of the guys that we talked about earlier, we feel very good, we feel very secure about them, but once you get into those middle rounds, I mean I, I just generally am chasing upside and there's a lot of upside to chase in that area. Whereas then I'm, I'm kind of avoiding the, the small hit, big miss type. Wide receivers where the big miss isn't so much that they're going to just fall flat on their face like Cortland Sutton or Zay Flowers. Those are two of my go to examples here. I don't think they're going to fall flat on their face. I just don't think that we're going to see necessarily a top 20, top 15 wide receiver season from those guys, given the fact that Sutton's never been a top 24 wide receiver in PPR points per game. And you have probably less volume in that offense this year from a passing perspective because how good the defense is. And they added those running backs. Zay Flowers. Baltimore's been a top or, sorry, a bottom three pass rate team over the last few years. Like there's just not as much volume to go around. And so I look at that range and I say to myself, all right, if I'm going to get an anchor at wide receiver early on and I throw two or three darts at this range, including like the Amek Bukas of the world, the Ricky Piersols of the world, I throw a few darts at those guys, I think that one of them will hit. And if I get two or three of those types of players that are going to be week in and week out wide receivers and solid players for me, and I get that anchor at running back early, then I think my team's looking good. I keep doing the same thing, by the way, where I'm like, oh yeah, tet a roa McMillan. I'm like, oh, let me finish it because I don't want Spawn to get mad at me either. So given this conversation, like I find myself very often if I'm picking near the end of the first round, I'm just very happy to double up on receivers. I love the receivers there and I just feel so confident there. And I also like, kind of like some of these running backs and everything that are going to be available in rounds three, four and five, more so than I usually do. So if you are doubling up at the receiver position with a late first round pick, do you have like a favorite too? I know you mentioned JJ Drake, London and AJ Brown. Like I love London this year. I mean, I love all these guys, right? Like, if I can get Nico to fall to me, I like Brian Thomas Jr. Lad McConkey. A lot of people really? Like, do you have like a favorite pair of those two? Yeah. I mean, look, if Nico falls pretty high on Nico, I think that he's a top five wide out in. In fantasy this year. Just given his peripherals last year. I mean, he just keeps. Keeps getting better and better and better. I do worry about the offensive line a little bit. And then Drake London's the other one. I mean, we could. Realistically, it just wild. The market really hasn't reacted to the Darnell Mooney injury. Not to say that we should like overreact because he seems like he's going to get back at some point. Some point. But we all just assumed that he's gonna be back week one because that was what. What was being reported. Then Raheem Morris was like, yeah, he'll be back at some point this year. And it's like, what. Wait, what? Like, is he. I thought he was gonna be okay and fine. And so like, we saw 30 plus target shares from Drake London last year in that small sample with Michael Penix. I don't see how that doesn't happen, especially with Darnell Mooney banged up. So Drake London would probably be the other one that I think is just a little bit undervalued right now. So I'd probably, I mean, like, if you could somehow see Nico Fallens fall and get Drake London or, you know, even if you're in like the 109 spot or something like that and you're able to get Nico in the first round because you know that the market hasn't reacted enough to stuff going on in Atlanta and you get Drake London in the second round. I mean, that's Chef's kiss. You're good to go. Erickson, really quickly, do you have a favorite pair in that range? I mean, I think it. I love Nico, I love Drake London, and Puka is probably the one that I feel like I'm. I'm getting potential value on if he falls a little bit because of people that are concerned about Stafford. But Puka, I think, just can have so much success in this offense. I think almost regardless of who the quarterback is. I think that if Jimmy Garoppolo. Yes, I think you're probably more concerned about Devonte. But Puka Nakua, over the last two seasons since joining the NFL, he's fourth in the NFL in receiving yards and he has to score touchdowns eventually. DeMarcus Robinson scored seven receiving touchdowns last year, has scored nine in his career. I. I just can't believe that he's not going to find the end zone and something that I looked at when I was looking at just receiving yards and how it's going to project touchdowns in the future. Entering last year, there were two guys that had 2, 000 receiving yards with low touchdown totals. One was Chris Olave, the other was Terry McLaurin. We also saw one of those guys hit a monster touchdown total last season. So when you're looking at players that have a ton of yardage over the last two years, one of them is Drake London, one of them is Puka Naku, and the other one is a receiver, we didn't mention him. But George Pickens is another guy who's put up monster yardage. But the touchdowns haven't followed. But what's the number one projector of future fantasy success and touchdowns is just getting yards and it shows that those players are good. So London, Miko Collins for me. And I think though we just look at Week 1 matchups too. Those guys look like they're going to be out starting the season hot out of the gates. The Texans are playing the Rams. We know the Rams secondary is not that great. Nico Collins is going to ball out because that's what he does. And Drake, London, they're playing the Buccaneers. I mean like, what else do you have to ask for? They just shoot out scalore with that Falcons team. Great stuff from the boys there. And of course, when we're talking about great minds of fantasy football, perhaps nobody better than Andy Barrons, who's got his own podcast working right now. Him and Dalton Del Don. Very exciting times for Andy. And Andy was nice enough to stop by and chat with Ryan and Erickson about some wide receivers and some running backs who have potential to break out in 2025. So here are the names that these guys are chatting about. Erickson, you messaged me this morning saying after last night you had to change your running back pick here. So who do you have for us now? Oh yeah, I'm going with with Bill Crosky Merritt, running back for the Washington Commanders. Now I felt like I was doing a disservice by not at least bringing him up on the show when we're talking about running back breakouts because he's checking off every single box of that type of player that is going to drastically beat his adp. And I think there's still an edge to anyone that's watching this right now. There's an opportunity for you to get him in your fantasy draft because the ADP is just not going to catch up to the riser that Jacoi Kraski. Merit is in most of your home leagues. So I want to make sure that you are pulling him up your draft board to make sure that you get him with one of your later round picks because he's going to take the NFL by storm this year. I think you know Brian Robinson, the he's going to get traded. Like it seems very convincing. Even watching the game last night, the broadcast, they're very convinced that he wasn't even at the stadium. Like this is like legit. Like they're kind of like we're moving on from Brian Robinson. Like he's not going to be part of our plans. And if they can't trade him, maybe he's a cut candidate again. He's in the final year of his contract and this is why it's so hard to buy into running backs that are average. If you're not special at the running back position, teams will look to replace you and upgrade. And so far throughout camp, Crossy Merit has looked like the explosive part that can be an upgrade over Brian Robinson who has been fine, but now you're getting a running back that okay, worst case scenario is cross team. Eric, can he just be Ryan Robinson? Yeah, I think that that's what the Commanders think, but now there's room for upside and don't him being a seventh round rookie running back, it doesn't really describe, I think what his actual talent level is because he dealt with a lot of eligibility issues last year. He got screwed over by the NCAA only allowing him to play in one game this past year at Arizona, which he actually looked really good in. But the year before at New Mexico Monster 2023 campaign, he was PFF's fourth highest grade running back in 2023, 33% dominator rating. And in the one game that he did play this year, 13 carries for 106 yards and he broke a ton of tackles. And then the next time he got to play was in the Shrine Bowl. And you know who won? Offensive mvp Jakori Crosby. Merit. So this guy's pretty good at football, but he just didn't get a chance to play, which is just such a disservice to him. So I think that it's his revenge tour here as a rookie for the Washington Commanders. Again, the seventh round draft capital does not reflect how good of a talent he is. And I liked him a lot as a prospect and I thought that okay, maybe if this guy gets some opportunities he can maybe usurp Brian Robinson. But it seems like the team is Already making that decision and they're ready to move forward with Jakob Crosby. Merritt again, not necessarily three down workhorse Austin Eckler will still be involved, especially on the passing down side of things. But in terms of early downs, who could see red zone opportunities? Crochroy Crosky. Merritt looks like the guy and he should be available in all of your drafts because the ADP I don't think is going to quite catch up to where you can actually get him. He's jumped up in the rankings to RB70 in the, in the half PPR rankings. I'm curious to see where the ADP does land. We're actually launching a new feature. It's not available yet, but called Real Time ADP with Fantasy Pro. That would be really helpful for situations like this to see where he is going in the most recent drafts when stuff like this happens. Andy, what is the correct stance on, on Bill Kreski? Merritt is. I don't know if it's a hot take or a measured take, but what is the correct approach here given, like there's this huge swell of hype and, and excitement surrounding him. But he still is somebody who's like going pretty late in drafts and like he had like what, two good runs yesterday? So like, is it more of a measure take or are you kind of jumping on the bandwagon? Yeah, I do want to say to the point about him still being really cheap in drafts. I was in an auction two nights ago and this was like just exclusively industry people, people who write about this for a living. Everybody knows who Crosby Merit is and we have for a long time. It's no, like he didn't sneak up on anybody in here. I had a little bit of leverage at the end of the auction. I got him for two bucks. That's where you can still get him. I'm not totally sure why he's available at that price this, this late into the preseason, but. But it's actually true. I'm, I'm surprised to hear you say that. He's in the 70s at the position. That seems wild to me. I mean I, they're, they're not even just telegraph. They're telling us where this situation is headed and Brian Robinson has had it out of town and it's going to be Crosby Merritt's job for the most part. Again, it's not going to be, you know, I, I agree with everything that's already been said. I don't think he's going to be 90% of the touches. Obviously Austin Eckler is going to. Is going to continue to be Austin Eckler, but this is going to be a pretty beefy role in an offense that I think we're all pretty excited about. So I don't really see any reason why he shouldn't already be ranked in the 30s, perhaps already ranked ahead of Brian Robinson. I think that's totally reasonable right now. Let's go to the wide receivers here. Andy, who do you have for us? Yeah, for me, this is, this is Ricky Pearsall. And it's not like he's sneaking up on anybody, but if we're just looking for a breakout candidate, this, this man is already the Niners number one wide receiver entering the season. He is one of the few healthy members of the receiving cor as we enter the year. He also, I mean, number one, he was. Whatever. It's just preseason. He looked great. The other day it was 42 yards on three catches. In perfect sync with Brock Purdy. He's had a pretty normal off season after having the least normal off season of all time as a rookie. Right. So that is a huge difference. Just being in the program in a normal way makes a huge difference. We also got, you know, we got proof of concept from him in the final two games last year when he looked like an absolute star. 14 catches on 18 targets, 210 yards, couple of touchdowns. This is, this is just one of those cases where, you know, a lot of the time a wide receiver will come into the league and they got a little bit of size and they test like a superhero at the combine, but when they get on the field, we don't, we don't really see it. Well, I mean, Pearsall has a 42 inch vertical and you know, he's got four, four speed. And you see it like you can feel it every time he touches the ball. Every touch looks like it. Like it could end in the end zone. Right. I just think he's been spectacular. We're in a, we're in a big play offense. I think everybody knows that historically, Kyle Shanahan's teams, man, those, those quarterbacks produce some, some pretty serious yards per attempt. We're getting a lot of big plays here. They scheme up some fun stuff and a lot of that is going to go to Pearsall. Brandon Ayuk, probably not going to see him for a month and a half, maybe more. This is, this is kind of Pearsall's receiving room and I think he's ready to roll. I was surprised. So his expert consensus ranking is wide receiver 37. That's not that surprising to me. What is surprising is he's the type of player that I anticipate his ADP being that he goes higher than what his ranking is. It's actually lower. His ADP is wide receiver 42. That did surprise me. Andy, where are you? Like, are you reaching to take Piersall to make sure, like planting your flag? I want to get this guy on my team. Are you trying to get him right around where his ranking is? Is there a round you could, you could assign him to, to say, if I can wait till this round and get him, I'm really happy? Yeah. It's funny, this, this is another one where I'm kind of a fraud in the rankings because wherever I have him, I think of him as, I mean, I think of him as a wide receiver too, right now. And, you know, if you want to call him a low end wide receiver too, that's fine. But he is, he is quite obviously the nine, the Niners number one receiver. So I start looking at him when we, you know, when we get down to that. And I'm not saying that I'm taking him ahead of these guys, but like when we get into that group and we're talking about Marvin Harrison and we're looking at Cortland Sutton and we're looking at DJ Moore and those are the names I'm, you know, that's not a bad spot for me to pivot to running back for a second and then come right back with with Ricky Pearsall, who again, I like. I think he's given us 1100 yards this year. I think these are very solid wide receiver, two numbers ahead of us. And the nice thing, Erickson, is like Andy just said, you don't have to draft him. Right after Marvin Harrison Jr goes, you can wait and then get him later and feel like you're still getting a, you know, a guy who' to produce a similar amount? Yeah, I think that the way that Andy described Ricky Piersol, it just, to me, he seems like one of the easiest clicks you can make in fantasy football. Like, even if he doesn't hit his ceiling outcome where he is going over 1100 yards, you're getting him wide receiver 40. That. That's where we're betting on a former first round pick in a great offensive ecosystem attached to a quarterback that we are confident in. Like, we're confident that Brock Purdy can support fantasy viable weapons. A lot of times in this range with the receivers, we're like, I don't know, Chris Olave, like, who's the Saints quarterback? Like, you were concerned about that. But it's one of these things where we feel great about the quarterback being able to support Ricky Piersol. And the thing that I can't get out of my mind and just going off to his off season and how different it is from last year. You know, two years ago, entering the 2023 season, the training camp reports for Brandon Iuk were off the charts. They were. This guy is so dialed in and ready to go. And what Iuk had a monster year and then got paid by the 49ers. And that's really been the drum beat for Ricky Pearsall this year because, oh, he's actually getting able to get reps with the starting quarterback with Brock Purdy. So to me, the Pearsall bet this year is kind of similar to JSN last year where his first round pick doesn't necessarily hit. He also entered the season he was a little bit banged up. I think it's the exact same kind of bet because he's a super talented player attached to a great quarterback and a great offense with opportunities like Joan Jennings is not. Debo is gone. Auk is hurt. So I just. I couldn't agree more. And I'm glad that Andy put him on the list because if he didn't, I was going to. Fantasy football is a game we love. And another game that we love is would you rather. And our own Tara Roberts, who's back here at Fantasy pros. We're so happy she's back joining us for the 2025 season. She got to chat with Ryan and DBRO about some. Would you rather. So two players. Who would you rather pick? These are the important questions that need answering here as we head into draft season. So we want you to make the right decisions. Let's hear the takes from this gang about who they would rather have this season for fantasy football. All right, let's go to another receiver pairing here. Tyreek Hill or Devonte Adams. Tyreek is wide receiver 14 in ECR. Devonte Adams is wide receiver 16. So these guys are really close. Tara, you have Tyreek hire dbro. You have Devontae higher. I'll start with you on this one. Dbro, why do you like Devonte Adams so much? I mean, dude, it's just. There's no fall off. I feel like we are getting values on some of these older wide receivers. And I'm not telling you, like, it's time to send Devonte Adams to the glue factory, man. I think he's still got a lot of good football left in him. You look at what he did with the New York Giants last year. Among 79 qualifying wide receivers, 22nd in separation, 27th round win rate. Dude was on pace for 104 receptions with them as the wide receiver, seven in fantasy points per game. So I don't see any fall off, man. I think the only big question about Adams and where people want to rank him is what are your thoughts on Matthew Stafford? And also in that convo if Stafford is out. And right now I am projecting like Stafford to probably miss some games during the season. I'm not that worried if we're going to get that much of a fall off from Jimmy Garoppolo or Stetson Bennett. This is still going to be an offense designed by Sean McVay. We still know where the freaking ball is going. It's going to Puka. And if it's not going to Puka and it's going to Adams. So as a volume bet, as a talent bet, as a, I'm betting on the system and the offense here. I am totally fine taking Devonte Adams. Even with some of the questions swirling around Matthew Stafford. I would much rather risk it for the Biscuit with devonte Adams in that situation than, and this is not throwing shade against terror like with, with any Tyreek love. Tyreek scares the ever loving crap out of me this year. Like I'm worried Miami could be just a total tire fire by week six. You were on devonte early dbro this off season and I was right there with you. Like you totally. Not that I needed much, you know, pushing, but you totally won me over. I'm like, yes, like devonte is a great value Stafford back stuff, man. Like nobody ever used to have a bad back. When you have a bad back, you pretty much have it forever. And that's for people who aren't taking violent hits all the time in this, you know, incredibly physical sport and who are already into their late 30s. So that like, that angle is really hard for me to not be nervous about. Setting that aside, if you could promise me health, then, yeah, like I think Devonte is an insane, insanely good pick this year. Honestly. Like, like I think it all makes sense. But that Stafford stuff is scary now. Tyreek scary maybe just for other reasons. Like his own quarterback obviously has a different kind of, you know, health concern kind of looming over everything. He's also an older wide receiver who's, you know, relying on, on speed and maybe that doesn't age as well. You know, we'll kind of see. But Tara, you are not scared off. You have Tyreek ranked as wide receiver 12 five spots ahead of Devonte Adams. So why is this the older receiver that you're going for? Yeah, we're talking about scary. And I and I don't fault you D row for being scared of Tyree Kill. I'm not gonna lie. When he started opening his mouth this off season, I got a little bit scared too because we want chemistry there. We don't want all of that, you know, chemistry, anti chemistry yapping going on. But at the end of the day, we're talking about upside. And I and I love Devonte Adams and I and I am pro Devonte Adams too. I think my lean on Devonte Adams is less towards raising him up and actually more towards his impact. Maybe downgrading Puka a little bit, that's another story. But when I'm looking at Tyreek Hill and I'm shooting for that ceiling, we are not that far removed from him leading the league in receiving yards. The upside is extremely high when we look at what he did last year and his production is definitely tied to the health of Tua Tugabaloa. Right. And if we could guarantee to would be healthy and good to go for an entire season, he would be somebody that people would probably be looking at consistently in the first round. But since we can't guarantee that, we do get a little bit of a discount on there. But I will say that typically speaking before last year, if there was one person in the offense that was more to a proof, it was Tyreek Hill. But when you add in the factors of the the wrist injury that he had last season, which was obviously a random thing, not a age regression issue, the legs are still fine. And then you throw on top of that, the fact that Mike McDaniel started to get really cute with the offense and wanted to make Johnny Smith the receptions leader in that offense. Which was fun from a fantasy perspective for those of us at tight end, but not super fun for Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle and even sometimes Devon Hn. When you look at his removal there, that's a big factor for me as well because we are going to get a shift in target share. Tyree Kill going back. And I actually like all of the Dolphins players as we lose Johnny Smith in this offense and get back to what this offense was originally. And when I look at him and the upside and opportunity here, it's just so high. And I absolutely love the Dolphins schedule as well. I've always had a problem with TUA in terms of drafting him specifically because once you get to the end of the season and towards the fantasy playoffs, you get into those cold weather games where they're going to Buffalo and whatnot and he, he just can't perform there. They have a beautiful playoff schedule that includes two home games against two bad defenses in Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. And I can't pass that up. The upside for all of the Dolphins players at that point, if you're in the fantasy playoffs would be literally league winning upside here. So I'm. It's riskier for sure. If you're looking for stability, Devonte is definitely the safer pick. But the higher upside swing for the there for me there is definitely going to be Tyreek Hill. Yeah, you know, I was really out on Tyrique early in the off season and I just felt like, you know, again he's into his 30s now. There's been some injury stuff that there's questions in the offense, there's questions about his quarterback health and I would just rather go a different direction. That was so much of a consensus opinion, at least on the shows that like we were talking about him that I almost started to feel like, well, maybe we're going too far in the other direction. And Tara, of course, you know, is going, you know, kind of against the grain from that perspective. I find it interesting. So we have this cool. It's called consensus draft sentiment. And on all the player cards, if you look at the rankings on fantasyprose.com it'll kind of highlight just kind of the sentiment like based on the write ups and everything, like an overall, an upside and then a bust, you know, likelihood. And it's a really cool feature that we have. It doesn't mean that I necessarily agree with the assessment on every player because for Tyrique's it says that it's a lower upside and I disagree with that. To me, the scary part of Tyreek is that the bust factor is high and the risk factor is high. The upside I do think is also high. To Tara's point. Very recently this guy was like borderline gonna set the record for receiving yards in a season. So if things work out well, he will be a value in the mid third round. I just get scared off. Tara, are you taking him into the second round or like the. I'm not sure what the ADP is right now, but the expert consensus rankings is a mid third round pick. Yeah, I'm, I'm okay with leaning in on the late second round. If you want to, especially if you've got one of the picks at the turn there. That makes a lot of sense because nine times out of ten you can look at somebody's roster and try and figure out whether or not they're going to be drafting. So maybe you can, you know, not have to take that earlier pick and get him in the early third. But yeah, once I get to the late second, I'm cool with looking there. Debra, where are you taking Devonte Adams? Quickly? Overall, I've got Adams. Adams, where are you at? I've got him looking at it 38th overall. So I'm guessing I'm right with consensus or maybe a shade above it right now with Adams. Yeah, I'm right with it. So best ball ADP is 38th overall. So I'm kind of with it. And if we get a little more positive news about Adams, I've dropped him a little bit my ranks. But if we get more negative positive news, excuse me, about Stafford, closer we get to week one, I'll bump him back up a little bit. See how your choices play out instantly with the Draft Simulator. The Draft Simulator allows you to practice quick and fun realistic mock drafts based on your league settings in minutes. Sync your league for free and try it today@fantasypros.com Mock or download the Fantasy Pros app. I'm Jake Hofer and this is back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access? Should you? That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand. Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast. I'm Dan, he's Ty. Hello. And we're the Solid Verbal College Football Podcast. College football season is here and you know what that means. Your team is going to break your heart three times probably before Halloween. Uh huh. But fear not, the solid Verbal will be right there with you through every soul crushing loss and impossible comeback. Join us all season long, all year long as we ride the rollercoaster of this ridiculous sport. Whether you're a date die hard fan or a casual observer, we'll help you make sense of all the chaos and of course celebrate the madness. Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else, and all the emotional support you need as a college football Fan. We don't just love college football, Ty. We live it. Listen to the solid verbal college football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Noah. I'm 13, and as you might have seen from the news, I got a podcast and I explain those fake headlines like your uncle would, like your cousin would, if he actually did the research. Honestly, adults don't ask the right questions. Now, you know with Noah de Barrasso is a show about influence. Who's got it, how they use it, and what it means. For the rest of you, it's not the news. It's what the news should be if someone Gen Z or Gen Alpha made it. When I'm watching everything. Sheesh. Majority of the youth 18 through 24 say they trust Republicans more than Democrats to fund the economy. You kidding me? Politics is wild and I'm definitely not here to tame it, but I'm here to make sense of it. Just what's happening, why it matters, and what it means for us. Bring your brain. Listen to now youw Know with Noah de Barrasta on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast. The sponsor of our show for Fantasy Fest this year was DraftKings. And Dan Johnson from DraftKings came in to talk to us about some landmines. That's right. Players we want to possibly avoid this season. So make sure that you're steering the car away from drafting these players. Let Dan Ryan and Debro walk you through. All right, back to the landmines we're avoiding here. Dan, you have lad McConkey. It looks like you're wearing a Chargers jersey. I'm wearing the McConkey jersey. I'm hoping I'm wrong. I'm kind of trying to jinx myself, guys. I. I love lad McConkey and he's a good lad. He has been since he's been a bulldog. But yeah, unfortunately I'm fading him at wide receiver 11 and not that much again. You're talking about that. You're talking about sort of a little bit behind where a Chance being drafted. Right. We were talking about that 18 to 20 range. Lad McConkey is a true end of the second round turn of the third pick right now for me. And last year The Chargers scored 23 touchdowns and McConkey was responsible for seven of them. That's good for a 30% target share and that's efficiency that I don't really think we should be banking on. I think in terms of banking on efficiency year over year for fantasy football is where it gets really difficult. But McConkey's red zone share last year was just around 17% and he had a 6.3 red zone conversion rate. That's not, that's solid. That's not alpha receiver numbers. We've also got some organizational telling and some organizational mess. We lost Rashad Slater. As you know, our left, our left tackle, you have to knock off about 0.1 EPA per play for the Chargers offense because of that. Now I do think the shift from Joe Alt to left tackle and Trey Pipkins to right tackle should be okay, but I do think that it is going to affect some time on task routes and those time on task routes is where McConkey made his money. Outside of crazy efficiency, it's also a team that ranked in the bottom third in passing attempts. They had 510 last year. And I could feasibly see that going down into the 480, 490 range. What with Omarion Hampton and what, you know, hopefully Naji Harris gets healthy and yeah, so I think Vlad McConkey right now is be wide receiver 11, back end wide receiver one. He's more of a mid wide receiver too. For me. I, I see him, you know, I dropped him down to about a 70 catch rate, 13 yards per catch and a 25 target share and, or sorry, 25 touchdown share. And that, that landed him right at like wide receiver 28 for me. So. Debro, I find lad super interesting because when you first started seeing this season's redraft, like expert consensus rankings, I felt like everybody had Lad McConkey at wide receiver 11. You could almost have just like put him there in his own tier because everybody had their own order of wide receivers 4 through 10. You have your own order of wide receivers 12 through 17. But Ladd was always wide receiver 11. And now there's obviously like stuff like with Slater's injury, like Dan alluded to and some of the other stuff about the offense, a lot of people still really like the player, of course. Do you think wide receiver 11 is still an appropriate ranking for him? Debro, where everybody had him earlier, do you think he should be moving down and maybe avoided? I moved him down immediately as soon as they signed Keenan Allen. And if people don't think that that's going to impact it, then I, I don't know what they're looking at. Like Keenan Allen's target earning ability was, was still top shelf last year. Like he took a small step back in efficiency metrics even the ones outside of Caleb Williams that he could control, but he was still extremely strong. Like, I moved Lad and I had him at wide receiver 10 or 11. I kept bouncing on, on that like on the daily. I moved him down to wide receiver 16 only because that the, and, and the thing about Lad is I think that he's going to be one of these defining players of the season because I see both sides of the coin. Like I, I wonder with the additions of Naji and Amari and Hampton, if we get same old Greg Roman who wants to run the ball and there's a long history of that. The other part about this is where if anybody were to tell me that There was a 10 game stretch of Greg Roman where he was throwing at a top 12 clip, they were top 12 in pass rate, over expectation, neutral passing rate. Everybody would tell you that that's crazy and that couldn't happen. So it's like they've added a lot of pass catching weapons this season, like this off season. And it's like, could we see the Chargers be league average for passing rate? It would be a big departure for Greg Roman. I think it's in the range of outcomes, but I think if we're playing the median and leaning on the history of Greg Roman, the more likely outcome is that they're bottom 10 in passing attempts. And if that's the case. Yeah, dude. Even with the crazy efficiency of lad McConkey, like I was playing this game, like on the way to the Expo with Pat, we were, we were driving there and I was like, okay, like, who gets more targets? Lad McConkey. Tedro McMillan. Who gets more targets? George Pickens or Lad McConkey? T. Higgins? Lad McConkey. Cortland Sutton, Lad McConkey. Like Garrett Wilson, Lamb McConkey. And it's like, well, that's all the case. And it's like in a lot of those ways I'm saying the other person and not Lad, then how the heck can I rank him as a wide receiver one still like, I can't. Dan, let's go to your last player to avoid. Yeah, I went with a quarterback. I like to end things where I began. And I knew J.J. zacharison was going to be leading up the show. And I love, I love all of his literature on year over year quarterback stickiness. So I'm, I'm going with Baker Mayfield for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Uh, he's being drafted at an insane Q right now. And the classic regression cocktail that I, that I think based on my many Years being a student of the late round QB. Here is that 71% completion rate last year added with that 7.2% touchdown rate. Those. That's a classic regression cocktail. The Bucs offense was awesome last year. They but they also ranked second in yards after the catch. And Baker Mayfield had 967 passing yards on completions behind the line of scrimmage. They were also third in passing yards per game. But Baker's depth of Target was only 6.8 yards. That was 32nd in the NFL. I think that in order for Baker to return his QB7 investment, you're going to need to see him like continue to have that NFL best conversion rate on intermediate third downs, which he did last year at 63.2%. I don't think that stays. He was crazy good in the red zone. He was. I didn't. This stat surprised the crap out of me. He was inside the five yard line. He was 16 of 24 with 15 touchdowns. That's insane. So those though again I said earlier banking on that sort of efficiency and year over year is something that I'm not necessarily looking to do. I love Baker Mayfield and of the, of the like situations and the ecosystems, he has the strongest I think of the three players that I've brought up here. But I just think for a QB7 price tag, he's a little bit too still. I know he does have some mobility to him but you know he's, he's, he's more a pocket passer than he is not. And I'm not taking a pocket passer banking on that degree of efficiency last year at QB7. I don't have anything to add as to the why. I will just add just to emphasize, if there was one player I could pick for this segment, it would have been Baker Mayfield. Like I will have him in zero leagues if I do not get one of those elite, you know, four guys who provide rushing everything at the top and Alan Jackson, Daniels or Hertz. I will be drafting my quarterback out of tiers three or four. I will not be drafting a tier two quarterback. And Baker is like the highlight of those tier two guys that like I would just expect to regress. And you know, it's funny, I heard somebody, I can't remember who said it, so I wish I could give them credit. But somebody else recently I heard make the point that because the Bucks went from Canales to Liam Cohen, everybody is just sort of saying like, well clearly Baker will be fine because he's done it with two. But like it Might just be that they nailed that higher the first time they had to make it, you know, in, in replacing somebody. Maybe they did in the second time. Like we're all, we're all giving a lot of credit to Grizzard as like or to Baker under Grizzard, I should say, just because he's gone through the offense coordinator change before. I'm a little nervous, especially when there's so many quarterbacks I like going later them. So like I strongly, strongly agree with Baker on this one. Dbra, what do you think? I. So I'm not burying Baker like, but I do have him below a lot of the other guys in that tier. And, and it really just comes down to like I don't want to pay the ADP price for Baker when Dan laid out fantastic points and regression is going to hit. The question is how much regression. I still have baker as a QB1 this year. I have him at QB11. But you're telling me when I can get Dak Prescott later, I can get Brock Purdy later, I can get J.J. mcCarthy later, who I all have ranked in the same tier. I'm going to take those guys because I can get them later. I think they're similar outcomes. I have all three of those guys ranked above them. And it's not hate on Baker. It's like there's going to be a certain amount of regression and I think he's still going to be a QB one, but when I can get some of those guys around two, three, heck, maybe four rounds later, depending on the league size where you're at, then it's hard for me to press the button on Baker as much as I do love him. When I can get guys in the same type of tier way later. We gotta wrap the segment. But just to get one question in here from the audience, Debra, where do you have Igbuka ranked? I moved him up a lot, man, because of all the Godwin stuff. And now Jalen McMillan is out here like he might not even be back by the buy like that. That news hit today and so this is clear like okay, well I mean I move Igbuka up to wide receiver 38 and to be honest, like I might have to go a little bit higher, but I think the conversation for him starts in the mid wide receiver 3 range. Dan, quickly, what do you think? I agree. I think what Hearing about Jalen McMillan today, I, I had egg buka at 44. I moved him up to 39 at the news and I think that, that that's just about the range where I'd be comfortable taking him. Yeah, like give me a buka over Shakir Jennings. I mean, I'm probably going to move him up a little bit higher, to be honest. Even maybe over Olave. Like so. Yeah, now we know what fantasy pros is always about. It's about the rankings. Right. That's why you come to fantasypros.com to see the draft rankings, the in season rankings, to use all the tools. Well, we've got some great stuff here for you today, Dave Richard sat down with the Welsh and our own Pat Fitz Morris to discuss the running back rankings, the tiers, the targets, the fades, all of the above. Dave's one of my favorite folks in the industry. So make sure you listen to some of our best clips here from Dave sitting down and talking ranks at running back with the boys. Okay? So now on the inverse on this list, you see, you see a nice baby blue David Montgomery. We're like, oh, look, it's so happy. That's his color. It looks great. Nope. Because we are now looking at the inverse of these ranks. Who is ranked too high? Fitzy. And we know who it is. So why is David ranked too high? I would just push Montgomery to the bottom of this tier, maybe to the top of tier three. He has 25 touchdown runs in 28 regular season games over the past two years for a team that was fifth and first in scoring those two years. The offensive coordinator for those two seasons, Ben Johnson, is gone. And who knows if the Lions new OC John Morton is going to follow the same usage patterns when the Detroit offense gets inside the green zone. Standout center Frank Ragnow is retired, which is not going to help the inside run a game for Detroit. And I don't know, if you guys were in charge of the Lions offense and had Jameer Gibbs at your disposal, would you be giving some other running back almost as many touches as Gibbs? Like, I know what my answer is is don't you wish, don't you wish. I mean, this could be a negative too, but don't you wish Shanahan was running the Lions? And it just. Shanahan just blindly will run 35 carries to Christian McCaffrey. Doesn't matter if his leg is falling off. He'll just like unapologetically go. And you're just like, please give that to Gibbs. Can we have that for Gibbs? We don't have it for Gibbs, but we want it. Fitzy. Yeah. I mean, so I, I like Montgomery. I think he's a good player, but he's clearly the second best back in this backfield for an offense that we are maybe worried for numerous reasons could tail off a bit this year. They're not going to score 70 touchdowns again. Yeah, Dave, I don't know if this is like low hanging fruit, but like you look at the list and you're like, if you had to pick two guys that seem too highly ranked, maybe there's others. I think people would kind of look at Tony Pollard. But you know, there's like a little bit of positivity with Spears maybe missing time. But like Montgomery stands out like a sore thumb even though there's, you know, big touchdown equity. It really feels like you're dealing with some like weird floor here. Would you agree that this is like the most standout Too high ranked RB2 in this group or is there somebody else you'd like to throw in? There's somebody else and it's DeAndre Swift in Chicago. Who I am just really not sold on being a fantastic fantasy running back. Can he be okay? Sure. He's been okay for fantasy purposes on a per game basis over the last three years and everybody seems to be really focused on, well, he's the only running back there. They're going to use a second guy and it might not be somebody you've heard of, could be a seventh round pick, could be somebody who isn't on the team yet. But he just, to me, I know he's got this, this one year where he was with Ben Johnson and he did so well with it and he did so great that Ben Johnson. Lions traded him the year after that, partially because they upgraded and they got Jameer Gibbs. And so Chicago probably will go through this year with DeAndre Swift as their primary running back. I don't think he's going to be used at the goal line. He's going to need to catch a hell of a lot of passes. I'm not certain that there's going to be a ton of let's, let's call them improvised targets for DeAndre Swift. I think there will be some that are, you know, wired in and they're going to call screens and stuff like that, but I've watched this team practice. I, I watched them last week and the offensive line, I, I know they added guys to it. They were a mess. They were false starting all over the place. They had Caleb sacked a bunch of times when they ran the ball. Swift did okay. He could win the edge a couple of times, but he wasn't the only running back in there. Even when Menangai, who's one of their rookie running backs, even when he got hurt in the middle of practice, they were still splitting reps between Swift and somebody else. That's going to happen into the season. When I look at Montgomery on draft day, I think of him as the last best RB2, meaning I would. If I had to have Montgomery as my number two running back going into a season, I'd be okay with it. There are other running backs I'd rather have. I'd rather have Montgomery with that touchdown upside than DeAndre Swift without it. Especially since I could see Swift just being okay or even worse, getting competition for playing time that ends up being better than him. Some good info here. We got a Marin Hampton over Breece hall and we got Montgomery and Swift both possibly being a little bit overranked by two of the smartest in the industry. If you want to be one of the smarts, make sure you never miss out on your running back targets with Fantasy Pro's Draft Assistant Draft Assistant connects directly to your draft and provides both real time quick suggestions and estimations on which players might get taken before your next pick. Draft Assistant fully integrates your customized cheat sheets and suggests picks based on your rankings, team build, adp. A bunch of other factors dominate your draft in real time without the guesswork with draft assistant@fantasypros.com assistant or on the Fantasy Pros app and try it for free during your draft by claiming your three day free trial. A three day trial of fantasy pros premium@fantasypros.com premium do it today, my friends. Pat, I'm going to throw this to you. Which running back outside of the top 36 do you think has the best potential to heavily out produce their ecr? All right. The key Welsh. The key word heavily. So we're going to go way outside the top 36 and I know this name is going to be greeted with revulsion. It's maybe Miles Sanders. I mean, hear me out before you start throwing rotten fruit at me. So Miles Sanders is someone you can get at the tail end of your draft. And it's possible. It's possible he has a substantial role in the Dallas backfield. Like he pretty much evaporated in Carolina the last two years. Yes, but in in 2022, Miles Sanders ran for 1269 yards and 11 touchdowns with the Eagles. He has for his career averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 3.03 yards after contact per attempt. And he's got a career breakaway percentage over six NFL seasons of 27.7%. So like we don't know if Javante Williams is ever going to be the same after that knee injury from 2022. And the Cowboys might not feel comfortable handing a big role to rookie Jaden Blue, whose work ethic has already been called into question. How many players outside the top 60 in running back ECR have a chance to get 10 or more touches in week one? I would guess that Miles Sanders is is probably the only person on that list. Dave, would you co sign this at all? And you're more than welcome if you got a name outside the top 36. I don't like we have graphic for it but you're well welcome to throw it out. But is Miles Sanders a guy do you think could outproduce or is this even the wrong other Cowboy running back that should be mentioned? Yeah, I, I'm just gonna go into my guy because I like Pat and I don't want to say anything bad about Pat or, or you know, the one time he's got an opinion that I, I disagree with. So let's just go to the graphic of Austin Eckler, who is now finding himself with an opportunity to maybe see a little bit more work than he saw last year. With Brian Robinson gone and the whole world is going crazy over Jacori crossing merit and deservedly so. He looked great in a preseason game against the backups on a defense that's going to be absolutely terrible this year. I I don't know if he necessarily qualifies as being somebody that can take all of the work that Brian Robinson had and do better with it. Is he quicker than Brian Robinson? Sure. Is he younger? Is he fresher? Definitely. But I look at Austin Eckler as a guy that can certainly see more carries in that commander's offense and catch more passes out of the backfield. I think they'll especially need them in the first month of the season when Terry McLaurin is starting to get his legs back under him. And we saw last year three games when Brian Robinson was out for Washington, so Eckler was the lead back. He wasn't the only back. They're going to use multiple guys like most teams do, but in those three games he averaged 15.4 PPR points per game. He didn't even average 15 touches in those games. So I think he still has a little bit of juice in his legs. He can still catch the ball and you're getting him at a pretty decent discount considering he might be the best running back on a playoff team that should score plenty of points as long as Jayden Daniels is around. And that's Austin Eckler. I'm taking him in round nine at this point, full PPR. If one CBS expert isn't enough for you, well, how about two? That's right. No second place here for Jamie Eisenberg. He's the 101 in my heart. Jamie's a good personal friend of mine and he came over to discuss wide receiver rankings and tears. So we followed back to back here with the CBS guys, Welsh and Fitz doing it again with Jamie Eisenberg. Don't miss this segment. Some great stuff here from the gang talking about the wide receiver position, which is now probably the most important if you're going to win all those PPR leagues. It's basically now the new standard. So let Jamie and the guys give you the right names and the right ranks here heading into the season. We've got Pat, Fitz, Morris, and we are talking wide receivers. We're very glad to do it. And this is going to be a great tier here where our wide receiver threes ECR 25, 36 starts with Zay Flowers. We got Tetaro and McMillan, Xavier Worthy, Rasheed Rice, George Pickens, Jalen Waddle. Boom. That's the end of the top end. Calvin Ridley, Travis Hunter, Chris Olave, Jerry, Judy Roma, Dunze and Jacoby Myers. That is the back half of 31 through 36. And our narrative here is a wide receiver that can jump in to be a wide receiver two, maybe even a wide receiver three. Fitzy, we clearly know who you have picked. He is on a high rise of value and I actually, I think the ECR of 26 is going to be closer into the 20s and teens in these coming weekends. So let's hear why you picked McMillan and then we'll get Jamie's take on it. Yeah, I want to put Teterom McMillan in the wide receiver two range and I've got him in the teens. It is obvious that TMAC is going to be Bryce Young's top receiver right away. The Panthers are probably gonna have to throw quite a bit this year because their defense isn't very good on paper. I think There's a chance McMillan finishes top 10 in targets. He is a top 10 draft pick who stands 6 foot 5, runs good routes, averaged 108.8 yards per game over his last two college seasons. And you know, it's not like Arizona had a really good NFL prospect at quarterback those years. I just love the outlook for this guy and I think kind of seeing his believing based on his college career and what we've actually seen from him so far in training camp, in the preseason. Like, I just, I don't want to underdraft him just because we haven't seen him play an NFL game yet. Jamie, what do you think about Tedro McMillan? His, his rise is going to be pretty huge. Like I said, there are some spots where he's even floating into the 20s, updated ranks over on fantasy pros, on the fantasypros.com rankings. I think he's even pushed into like a 24. Do you think Tedro McMillan has the potential to push that top 15? What? And I guess there's two parts of it, like, could he get there as far as being drafted and should he be there? Yes and yes. I mean, he's, he's a borderline top 20 guy for me. I think I'm 21 right now, so a guy that I would draft as a wide receiver too, you know, somebody I think that has, you know, the ability to again, outperform his average draft position. You know, I, I think once you get into this range, we talk about this a lot on, on our shows on fantasy football today, like basically like from wide receiver 20 and it's different names but like 20 to 40, like we call it the Blob. You know, there's just so many great wide receivers that can easily challenge to be top 15 caliber players. Top 20 caliber players. We're into this group of guys right now. So you may not like McMillan better than, let's say a Jameson Williams, for example, or, or, you know, some of the other guys that you showed on the previous graphic. But it's hard to deny the upside, you know, and as Pat alluded to, he's should be the go to guy. You know, it's an interesting receiving core because you still have a very established veteran that Bryce Young leaned on last year and Adam Thielen, but he had a hard time staying healthy and he's collecting AARP at this point. You have Jalen Coker, who, you know, seems to have a good rapport with Bryce Young, but, you know, will he get the opportunity to play? As much as maybe we would like to see. And then you have Xavier Leggett, who is another first round draft pick that, you know, may just be more of a gadget player than an actual NFL wide receiver. This guy just stands above the rest, be it by size or, you know, potential play and, and everything that he brings to the table. So they wouldn't make the investment in Him, I think, you know, if they're smart, if they weren't going to use him. They have an offensive minded head coach. They have a quarterback that obviously took a huge step forward last year. They have one of the more underrated offensive lines in the league. I think Pat said it best. I don't know if they have maybe the worst defense in the NFL, but they certainly have a defense that's going to keep them in some, you know, potential shootouts which, you know, will favor the, the receiving core and the quarterback. And so I think there's just a lot to love about the situation. The one thing that may keep his value a little bit depressed is how long with this hamstring injury that he's dealing with linger, hopefully he's going to be fine and you know, maybe get him at a little bit of a discount if he's going to be ready for week one. Jamie, is there anybody else on this list that you're seeing here currently as somebody that you might think that could bump into? I don't even want to say like wide receiver one, but that's fine. Why does everyone. Wide receiver two? We're talking about McMillan. I think obviously like Rice doesn't really belong on this list, but there's a few other guys. Does anybody else jump out to you as a player of really great value in the wide receiver three range? Yeah, again, I, I like a lot of these guys. You know, depending on the situation with Rice, we could see worthy, you know, if he's, if, if we're talking about an eight game suspension for Rice, you know, we saw how we finished last season. He was a monster. Depending on the situation with Tyree Kill with this oblique injury and you know, Devon Hn, if this calf injury lingers, you know, and they have to lean on him, especially with the tight end situation being different this year. So no John Smith soaking up targets. I don't think Travis Hunter should be that far behind Tedaro McMillan. You know, based on what his role could be in a Liam Cohen offense. How much is going to play on defense? Can he hold up? But this group is just so fantastic. Jerry Judy last year was so good at the end of the season and now you're saying Joe Flacco is the starter. Well, you know, again, Flacco was great for the Colts receivers at times last year he was great for Amari Cooper at the end of the 2023 season. I think he's going to be great for Jerry Judy. So those are the ones that stand out to me. Pickens you know, again with, you know, arguably the best quarterback that he's ever played with in his career at this point. There are a few that I would avoid. I don't like zay flowers at 25. I just don't think in his offensive environment he's going to be as great as he could be as a player. Like, you know, this is one where you watch the player versus the, you know, fantasy versus reality, for example. I don't think it just matches up. I don't think the production's ever going to be there for him in his offense with Lamar Jackson. But there's just, again, there's a, you know, if you're inclined to go with a heavy RB build, and these are the receivers that you're taking from, you know, as you're two, you're three, you're three or four. Like, it's a. It's a very good place to be if you're trying to find, you know, fantasy wide receivers. What's the first round look like? Well, Nick Ercolano and myself, along with Pat Fitz. Morris dove into it. Let Nick Fitz and I walk you through the players in the right order for the first round. Some guys, we might make a case for his first round picks who could end up there next year and more. Don't miss a second of this. Tune in right now. Nick Ercolano, me and Fitz talking Round 1, 20, 25. All right, boys, let's get into this next grouping here because this is where the debate really begins. All right, 7 through 12 again in the half point PPR, Malik neighbors in the ECR, the expert consensus rankings, Pukinaku at 8, Nico Collins at 9, my boy Amon Ross St. Brown at 10, Christian McCaffrey at 11, Derrick Henry at 12. Nick, you're looking at the board right now. Who do you want to move up here in this 7 through 12 grouping that maybe is not in the right order? Yeah, I mean, I. It's really hard to argue. These wide receivers, they feel like they're a centimeter apart. And it's like based on the injury report that day at practice with Malik, Neighbors is toe or back, Matt Stafford's back, you know, just like what ends up swelling up the night before is basically how the rankings end up settling in the next morning. So I don't have a ton of problems with the. The list here. I will say, and I know this is not a popular stance. I don't have CMAC inside my top 12. He's not a guy that I'm taking in the first round. I just like, I. He's just not for me this year. I, I think when we look at the consensus top, you know, 14 or 15 picks in fantasy football this year, it's about as strong as we've seen in a really, really long time. And I know a lot of people say, you know, you can only win with upside. I don't actually really think that's the case in a managed league. Like, I think if you hit on your first and second round pick, like, I, I feel like you are fine and you're making the playoffs. Anybody can win at that point. The number one seed, I feel like if we did studies on this, more often than not, the number one seed probably doesn't win their fantasy playoffs. I'm just kind of talking right now, but I'm just saying, like people use that as a, a bit or a talking point and I get it like C max. Upside is obviously crazy and every running back so far this off season for the Niners is pretty much gone down with an injury at some point or another. So it would be a long shot for CMAC not to be the guy at this point this year. But he's getting older. Like eventually that scar tissue starts to, to build up on these running backs and he just scares me a little bit when you got guys like Derrick Henry and like Brian Thomas Jr. Is a guy that I would put inside the top 12 here and I would gladly use a first round pick on Nick. Did Christian McCaffrey scare you last year? Coming off 417 combined touches, he was not like a dude I was necessarily fading. I didn't end up with him in any of my drafts. I think I probably had him around, I don't know, like the 105ish. So I didn't end up with him a lot of my drafts. But it wasn't because I felt like super smart. And I was like, I'm fading him because he's injured and everything like that just happened to turn out that way. So wasn't on my teams last year, won't be on my teams this year. And I like that you said where you have them too. Because going into this year, when we started in Best Ball, he was going around the 14th player overall and I thought that's perfect. That's exactly where that risk reward is huge. And I knew by the time we get here would be scratching the surface of the top 10. And I've seen him go as early as seven or eight in drafts. Pat, you have a different take here on Christian McCaffrey. You actually think he's undervalued here. So let's take the opposite approach. Make the other side of this argument on the coin for Christian McCaffrey. So I'm saying he could be undervalued, Joe. And basically Nick was speaking my language about McCaffrey because my rankings do not match my take here that I'm about to give you because I have him outside. I have him outside my top 12 match the drapes pattern exactly. Yeah, I'm just saying, like, maybe he could be undervalued. And I was doing a draft at the Fantasy Football Expo a couple weekends ago with, with Rich Rebar of Sharp Football, and Rich took McCaffrey fourth overall in this draft we were doing. And, you know, Rich and I were talking about it later, and he basically said, like, when has Christian McCaffrey ever been healthy and disappointed anyone? And since the Trade of the 49ers in 2022, McCaffrey has averaged 19.8 touches, 115.5 yards from scrimmage, and one touchdown per game for the 49ers. And we know Kyle Shanahan system is extremely running back friendly and he loves feeding CMC the ball, probably more than is wise for CMC's health. But, like, Shanahan can't help himself. So if he is healthy, we know he's gonna smash this. He's gonna be better than the 11th overall pick if he's healthy. There's like no question about that. And I agree the injury risk is terrifying, but maybe because of the potential upside, like, maybe he's a value at 11 overall. Shh. Uncle Joey's always got sleepers for you on the YouTube channel, doesn't he? Of course. Well, I've also got them for you on the fest. Yahoo's own Justin Boone, a great friend of the show, stopped by and we talked about league winning sleepers. That's what everybody wants to know about, right? Who are the guys I could draft late? They're going to win me a league. Well, guess what? We've got the answers to the test. We've got the cheat code. So Andrew Erickson, myself, Justin Boone, talking league winning sleepers right now. Well, we're going to turn on the spigot full of sleepers for you right now. And let's start with one of Justin Boone's, a running back that I've been targeting a lot of drafts. I've talked about a ton on the show. A guy who was handed the workload on a silver platter. In San Francisco last year, and Jordan Mason ate it up until, unfortunately, the wheels did come off at the very end. But it was a good time while it lasted. Justin Boone, there's a lot of rumors here that he could be more of the 1A to Aaron Jones one. And this is a back that proved the workload was not a problem. So why are you high on Justin Mason this year? Walk me through your thoughts of this new landing spot. This Kevin o', Connell, Vikings offense. Jordan Mason. I think you combined my name with his name there and called him Justin. Justin. Oh, my God. No. You know what I mean? I did do that. And Justin Mason, also friend of ours from the baseball side. So Freudian, weird slip there. Also friend of the show, but on the baseball side. So Jordan Mason, Justin Mason, all the Masons. Let's start with Jordan Mason here. Justin Boone. Talk to me about Jordan Mason. Well, it seems like this. Like, we've seen this movie before. Like, this feels like a sequel, right? Like in San Francisco last year, he was behind an older back who had injury concerns, and he gets his opportunity, and he blows up over those first seven games, 108 yards from scrimmage per game. In those contests, he showed he can do it. And we know a lot of backs have shown that they can do it in San Francisco, but can they do it elsewhere? Now he goes to Minnesota, where this is such a great environment. This is an offense that I want to buy into for fantasy basically every way I possibly can. And Mason is one of the very cheapest ways to do it. And you look at what they have there. Aaron Jones, somebody who I have loved for a long time, somebody who I have recommended in fantasy more years than I have not. And yet he's on the wrong side of 30. He's had all these, like, injuries every single season. I mean, we could go over here. 20, 24, quad ribs, hip. 2023 MCL sprain, thigh, hamstring. 2022, ankle, knee. 2021 MCL sprain, thigh, Hamstring, ribs. And to his credit, he only actually missed seven games during that stretch. But he did play hurt a lot of times, like, he. He battled through. But I think the Vikings, they see what's happening here. They knew they needed to get someone. They went out, they made the move to get Mason and didn't really bring in anyone else. So that tells you what they think of him. They also made a bunch of other moves this year. They've improved the offensive line. Ryan Kelly's there now, Will Fry's. That's upgraded. We know the defense, Brian Flores defense is really good there. They've added some pieces especially up front there. This is going to be a really good team. I think J.J. mcCarthy is the answer. I think he's going to be a very good NFL quarterback and he's in this environment where Kevin o' Connell is the quarterback whisperer. He's managed to get good performances out of basically any quarterback that's under center in Minnesota. So now Mason is in this situation where he's behind an older back in Aaron Jones who has had these soft tissue injuries, he's had these lower body injuries. I think there's a good chance we could say that he might miss some time this year. And even if he is out there, like you said, there's a shot. Based on everything the team has said, based on everything the beat writers have said, this looks like it's going to be pretty close to 5050 and that there's a chance that Mason could be overtaking him and could be the long term answer there for them. So just so high on him to get him where he can get him in the later rounds. There's like no risk at all. I end up taking him earlier than that just to make sure that I get him. I think he's a guy that could give you RB3 production with some RB2 weeks, but he finds the end zone and that's with Aaron Jones out there. And knock on what, we don't want to see it happen, but if Aaron Jones goes down, we're putting Mason right inside the top 12 for fantasy. Andrew Erickson, you're on the wrong side of 30. Do you have any thoughts on Jordan Mason? Well, I may or may not have a ticket on Jordan Mason to lead the NFL and rushing touchdowns at 75 to 1. So I am all in on buying the upside case with Jordan Mason, especially if he's able to carve out a goal line role in this office because that's where Aaron Jones struggled last year. Again, going back to my betting success and failures, betting on anytime Aaron Jones touchdowns was not profitable last season because he was constantly getting stuffed at the goal line. So I don't think that it's by accident they went out and acquired Jordan Mason to operate in between the tackles where Aaron Jones is better in space catching passes out of the backfield. So I'm really glad that Justin included this one because he didn't. I was going to put him on my list. Justin Mason, Jordan Mason, Perry Mason Vikings win the division. That's what I say let's get another sleeper here. And I got to tell you, Justin Boone, I know you're Mr. Buffalo Bill, you got to sell me on Keon Coleman because it was a big disappointment last year. Everybody loves the kid. He's a good guy. We're rooting for him. They brought in Josh Palmer. Why is Keon Coleman a sleeper that people need to be drafting this season? Well, I want you guys to tell me if this is the homer take, because I've been known to never go homer takes when it comes to the Bills. If anything, I've gone the opposite way. But now that Josh Allen's there, it's a little easier to buy into this offense in the last few years. And I think last year when they drafted Coleman, they did draft him in hopes that he could eventually become that number one target for Josh Allen. Now, when rookies show up, one of the first things I'm trying to figure out is like, do they belong? Do they look like they're going to need a little time, or do they look like they're not going to be in the NFL very long? And I think when Coleman got there, to me, it was pretty obvious that he was one of those guys that was going to take a little bit of time, was going to need to figure out how to win in the pros. And then the season started and he comes out, and just based on, like, the ball skills and the size, he starts putting up, like, okay numbers. Like, he posted at least 50 yards or a touchdown in four of his first five outings, which to me was a little better than I expected because I thought it was going to be more of. And not that they're the same player, but more of like a Rasheed Rice rookie season where the Chiefs kind of brought him along slowly. And then in the second half of the year, he erupted, right? Coleman comes out, starts putting up like, okay numbers. Nothing crazy, but a little more production than I expected. And then he looked like he was getting kind of comfortable around week seven, week eight, that year, four for 125 in week seven, five for 70 and a touchdown in week eight. And now it's like, oh, my God. Okay, the Rasheed Rice thing is happening even earlier than I thought. He's coming on, and then he gets hurt, and then when he comes back, he's not really the same player. He's not worked in the offense the same, and it kind of just derailed his season. But now this off season, everything we're hearing is that he's an improved player, that he looks great that the connection is there with Josh Allen. And is there still some inconsistency? Yes, of course. He's a very young player and he is still trying to figure out how to win in the pros, but he's the kind of guy that could put up a double digit touchdown season. It would not be that difficult for him in this offense with the type of player that he is. Then you bake in. Clichir is hurt right now, high ankle sprain. Is he going to be ready for week one? I'm not so sure. I don't love the fact that they're going out and working out other receivers. They got Gabe Davis coming back in for a workout. What does that tell you about some of the injuries they have there? Josh Palmer also been dealing with a groin injury in training camp, but I think he's been trying to like battle through that. But when you see him at practice it looks like he's struggling a little bit. So hopefully he can get healthy. But all of this is pointing to Keon Coleman having an opportunity at the beginning of the season to really establish himself as an alpha in this offense. As a guy that can make a ton of plays. You can question whether the Bills will ever have like a true number one receiver again because they got rid of Stefon Diggs a couple years ago and I think they've really enjoyed under Joe Brady spreading the ball around. But like I said, Coleman's the kind of guy that could just do it himself, could put up 10 plus touchdowns in this offense. So I think he's somebody where you're getting him, there is no risk at all and you could potentially come away with a guy who is in his second season where receivers often can break out in their second season. A guy that could be the number one in this offense. I think there's so many things to like about him and when you get to the later rounds, there aren't that many receivers that have that kind of upside. I think he's one of them. Keon Coleman at 51 wide receiver overall or Josh Palmer wide receiver 66. Andrew Erickson, I put that question to you. Hey you, Joe, why do you have to put me on the, put me on the spot like that? I think fantasy pro or you're not. That's, that's, I think for me. So if that's what I have to decide between, I think I will go with Josh Palmer just because he's, he's free and there are still some other guys in the. Keon Coleman Range that I still like a little bit more. Whereas Josh Palmer, I mean he was before Jacob Crosby Merritt became a third round pick. I was taking him in the last round but now Josh Palmer's kind of like my new favorite last round pick. And that's because I think Boone, you laid out a really good point where if it's not Keon Coleman or just talking about the Buffalo offense in general, someone's going to break out from this offense. Because if Khalil Shakur is missing all this time, Josh Allen is developing chemistry with somebody else that's playing a full complement snaps and Joey P. I know that you think James Cook's going to score 30 touchdowns. Again I don't think that's going to happen necessarily. And if those touchdowns go somewhere else, well that means Keon Coleman and slash or adult and Kincaid or Josh Palmer, one of these guys is going to have a monster year and they're all going outside the top 100 picks. So I think that scooping up some value in Buffalo makes a ton of sense. I do think that Coleman probably from a just pure ceiling perspective, I think he probably has the highest ceiling as a year two guy that led the team in red zone targets. He would be the guy that would bet on scoring double digit touchdowns. Now is that always consistent production? Not necessarily. Whereas maybe Josh Palmer as the best separator I think on the team maybe can consistently draw more targets from Josh Allen and then Dalton Kincaid. It's really been a health issue with him. So I agree just buying Bill's players at a discount. But I think that if you're gun to my head if I have to pick between Palmer and Coleman, I think I'll just take the cheapest guy, give me the the 20 year old year two receiver, the big bodied guy, give me him over the player Josh Palmer who's had some nice performances over the years but he's had a lot of time to show what he can do and he's never really established himself. But I will also throw this idea out there. Why not draft them both if we're trying to get the Bill's number one receiver? With where these guys are going, you could take them both in the late rounds and then hopefully a hit. Now look, you've done a good sell job on Keon Coleman, I will give you that for sure. Justin Boone and Andrew Erickson, that James Cook throwdown for the touchdown sounds like a wager to me. Sounds like what do you want to set the line at like 15? You know everybody told me last year. Kyron Williams can't score 12 touchdowns again and he didn't. He scored 14 last year. So we'll see. We'll say I'm in on James Cook. So there you go. We'll take that one to. No, I'm not saying to be out. I'm just saying he's not going to score as many touchdowns as he did last year. That's all I'm saying. You know what? I'm, I'm getting, I'm getting salty here in my old age. I'm going to take that bet. Great stuff from Justin Boone and all of our analysts and our guests from Fantasy Pros Fantasy Fest 2025. Again, you can watch the entire fest on our YouTube channel. Subscribe to the YouTube channel. We're trying to get to 300,000 subscribers by the end of the year and we can do it with your help. We got giveaways, we got incredible information. We've got it all and it's all free. So go check it out today. And don't forget to ring the bell to let goes ding for notifications so you don't miss a piece of content on the channel. We got the live Q&As. We got our in season coverage right around the corner. 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