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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 15 (Ep. 1895)
01:09:14
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- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human this holiday season, give yourself the gift of adventure with fishingbooker.com with thousands of verified guides around the world, booking a fishing trip is as quick as setting your fantasy lineup before kickoff. Just a few taps and you'll be reeling in the good times and maybe a couple of big catches. Swap the wrapping paper for an adventure and book a fishing trip on fishingbooker.com it's the easiest win you'll get all season. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. I'm Ryan Wormley, joined as I am every Friday by Derek Brown and Pat Fitzmaurice. We're talking key questions for week 15. Yes, the fantasy playoffs are here. They have officially kicked off with that Bucks Falcons game. Falcons win 29:28 on Thursday night Football. We don't always dive deep into these Thursday night games. We're not going to dive deep here, but how could we not talk about one Kyle Pitts senior, the best game of his NFL career. Probably the best game he's played, you know, at any level. I didn't go back and look at his college career either. It was a great game. 12 targets, 11 catches, 166 yards and three touchdowns. Kirk Cousins threw the ball 44 times in this game. There were three different Falcons with over double digit targets, which was kind of wild. But of course Kyle Pitts stood above the rest. Fitz, you and I talked a bit about Pitts yesterday. Um, you know, in a start sit decision I was trying to make, I did end up starting him. So even though you led me astray, we are okay. I didn't miss out on this epic game by Pitts. But yeah, what was your reaction? Just like watching this unfold because it, you know, a lot of it came early in the first half. He had two touchdowns and a hundred yards and it was already the best game it felt like he had ever had.
- [01:44]
B
Yeah, it's nice to see the cop hits we thought we were getting when he was an early first round draft pick out of the University of Florida. The guy who we thought was maybe going to help, I don't know about revolutionize the tight end position, but add more top end firepower to it and we got that and we've really seen Pitts sort of blossom with no Drake London in the lineup for the Falcons. Glad I didn't steer you astray. For the record, Worm was debating between Brock Bowers and Kyle Pitts and I said I just couldn't start Pitts over Bowers and then I would have felt you wound up flexing Pitts, and I would have felt really guilty about that because I was actually starting Kyle Pitts myself in an industry league against our Debro and my mutual friend John Dagle. Oh, yeah, poor Dagel got a pits bomb dropped on him. So glad I didn't tell you not to start pits when I in fact benefited from Kyle Pitts.
- [02:41]
A
Ed. Yeah, I, like, didn't disagree with you on Bowers, but the only reason I even brought it up is because Bowers is facing the Eagles. If he was facing like basically any other team, I wouldn't have even brought it up. And, and at the end of the day, I was just like, listen, I just want to give Kyle Pitts in the lineup facing the. The. The Bucks. So I'll, I'll put one of these guys in the flex and I'll go double tight end here in the fantasy playoffs. So I don't, I don't begrudge you for your. For your recommendation here. Cause it was a totally valid one. And I even said to you is like, yeah, I super cannot blame you for saying I cannot possibly start Kyle Pitts over Brock Bowers in an elimination game. So. So there wasn't too much disagreement there. Dbro, you know, I want to ask about Mike Evans too, but just on pits, quickly, like, like, what was going through your head watching this? Because this is somebody who like, like Fitz said, like, there could not have been a higher pedigree when he came into the NFL here and just higher expectations. And he's been the butt of jokes. Right? Like, he is probably the player we have tweeted about most on the fantasy pro's social media account because he is so easy for making jokes about, like, oh, I trusted Kyle Pitts again, or whatever it is. There's all. We always have a meme about Kyle Pitts, and today he just, like, was kicking butt and taking names or last night, I should say.
- [03:50]
C
I mean, dude, he's quietly been having a really good season for the. The entirety of the season. Like, I know he had like, basically that dry spell before Drake London's injury and stuff. And he's been operating as Atlanta's clear wide receiver one since then, but he was having a solid season. And it's nice to see that Atlanta's finally like, hey, we finally understand how to utilize this guy. And he's finally healthy after years of getting banged up after dealing with Arthur Smith. I love it, man. I'm. I'm so curious what happens with him in the years to come. Like to stay in Atlanta to get signed by somebody else. What happens with that? So Kyle Pitts wheels up, man.
- [04:28]
A
Yeah. And then Mike Evans, I know you were tweeting about a bit last night as well. D RO Just seeing him come back to the lineup, he immediately steps into 12 targets, just caught six of them. Baker has obviously been off for a little bit here, but they're those six catches he had still went for 132 yards.
- [04:43]
C
Yeah, I mean we saw the Mike Evans usage and we were talking about this in slack yesterday. I was like, I put it out to all of our, you know, everybody in, in slack. And I was like, where are you ranking this passing attack? Because this was the first time all season we had seen Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and a Mea Buka on the field. Altogether, we haven't seen that. So it was like, how is this going to play out? And we got so many questions on discord and live streams and stuff and people like do I play Mike Evans? And I'm like, this is not like a knee injury or a hammy or what have you, Mike. It's conditioning and Mike Evans coming back. And we saw he played, he, they held true to their word. He wasn't an every snap player but he was out there when it mattered. He had 70% route share last night. And that's about where I, I mean I wrote him up in the primer and I was like, look, he's not going to play every single down, but he's going to play out there when he's passing and he's probably going to walk back into being the leader of the passing attack. And that's exactly what happened. So for everybody that risk it for the biscuit and started Mike Evans, kudos. He paid off.
- [05:41]
A
Fitz, where did you have Devin Culp ranked at tight end going into the.
- [05:47]
B
Amazingly? I did not have Mr. Culp ranked. Nice to see him get into the end zone.
- [05:54]
A
He was a tight end, 56 in ECR by the way. I just had to look it up because I, I honestly, I'll be honest, when I first looked it up I was like, is he a wide receiver, A tight end? I didn't even know. It's not a name I was overly familiar with. So yeah, shouts to him for catching a touchdown. Let's jump into the Sunday slate. Quick reminder though, all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found@fantasypros.com rankings. Fitz, Shador Sanders, somebody we talked about a lot throughout, you know, April and May. He had his Best game of his career so far. Also last week, 30, 364 yards and three touchdowns against the Titans. He now gets the Bears. What are you expecting from him following this breakout game?
- [06:34]
B
Expecting, I don't know because it's going to be really cold in Chicago on Sunday. Game time, temperature of like 12 degrees I think and factor in the brisk winds and it's going to be, you know, a minus feels like temperature. So should we play to Colorado? I'm not sure he's. Well, I don't think he's played in in this sort of cold, although he's probably played in some chilly games before. But it would be great to see some additional signs that Shador might be good enough to at least be deemed a worthy competitor for the Browns starting quarterback job in 2026. I don't know if he's proven enough for them to not draft a quarterback early this year, but we've seen some pretty nice throws from Chadoor. He challenges defenses downfield in a way that Dylan Gabriel did not. Shador does also hold onto the ball way too long. He's got to fix that. I think his average time to throw last week was something like three and a half second which is just too long. But hopefully we continue to see Shador have good chemistry with Harold Fannin Jr. Who had eight catches for 114 yards and a touchdown last week. We're at least seeing a functional Browns passing game, which is kind of refreshing.
- [07:49]
A
What do you think, Debra?
- [07:51]
C
I think he could be a QB one again this week. I mean I'm not projecting him like that, I'm not ranking him like that. But if he goes out and he does that this week, I'm not going to be shocked. I mean the, the Bears passing, I mean the Bears pass defense, excuse me, has not been one that we're actually scared of. I think one of the best things for Shador in this game and I want to, you know, give him his flowers. He played very well last week amongst 29 qualifying quarterbacks. This guy was top 10 in yards per attempt, highly accurate throw rate and hero throw rate. But getting back to Chicago's past defense, they've had a problem pressuring the quarterback and I think that can work massively in Shadura's favor of like since week 10, seventh lowest pressure rate and they've given up the 10th most passing touchdowns. So I think Shador, he's a solid QB2 and I wouldn't be surprised if and really this comes back on the other side of it. Can the Bears push the Browns and I'm going to say it like in a frame it that way because we've seen the Bears offense. I mean the rushing attack is what's going to get them there in this game. But they've cratered. Caleb Williams's play has cratered against good pass defenses and make no mistake, the Browns are a good pass defense. So if the Brown, if the Bears can push the Browns, I think this game and looking at Shador like they could pass and they could have success doing it.
- [09:08]
A
Do you guys feel like it's a down? It's like a tough week for quarterbacks in general. I feel like there's like there's like plenty in a 1QB league but in a super flex format. I feel like there's not a lot a ton of depth this week that I feel really good about. It's a lot of names like Jacoby Brissette we'll talk about later. Has been really good but gets a really tough matchup. I feel like there's a lot of quarterbacks that kind of fit that category. Shador is still ranked outside the top 24 in ECR. He's QB26, but it wouldn't surprise me if he outplays that just because I do feel like there are some tough matchups fits for some of these other quarterbacks in this range.
- [09:38]
B
Yeah, I agree. The confidence level drops off precipitously after the guys in QB1 range. So there are about 12 guys in the circle of trust and then really dicey after that.
- [09:48]
A
Dera, where do you have Shador ranked?
- [09:51]
C
I've got my QB22. I'm actually a little bit more bullish on some of the QB2s this week. Like I, I like a lot of the spots for some random guys. Like I like Mariota. Like Stroud. This week I like even Tyler freaking Shuck. So maybe I'm a little bit more positive on the QB2s.
- [10:08]
A
Let's go to Ravens at Bengals here. Not QB2s in this one. Couple of the elite guys, although not always this season for Lamar. These two teams usually give us fun high octane scoring battles, but on Thanksgiving Ravens miscues, kept their offense from really getting going and they got blown out by the Bengals. Is it time to give up on the Ravens offense ever getting it together this year? Or will they finally look the way we expected in a rematch with this terrible defense? De Bro, I'll start with you.
- [10:34]
C
I think you're going to see a middle, middle road of the both of those things. Worm, unfortunately. And this comes down to, dude, why does Todd Monkin just have a problem running the freaking ball Like Derek Henry last time they played this defense, like he's shellacking them, like breaking off long runs. He's like getting chunk gains. And then Monkin just go from it. It's like every big game, Baltimore, I mean, look at the playoffs the last few years. It's like we take these games to what, justify what. I don't, I don't understand it. So I still think it's a game. We're probably going to see some uneven play. And this kind of goes down to Lamar's play recently that the guy I want to highlight here specifically is Zay Flowers. I'm worried about him. And I mean, looking at the just the Baltimore passing attack, if Zay is going to have a rough game or we. I'm calling it into question, that's going to affect Lamar because that's his clear number one wide receiver. And looking at Zay Flowers like he's going to get shadowed by D.J. turner. He followed him on 63% of his routes last time, held him to two targets and zero receiving yards. And Turner has quietly been one of the best shadow corners in the entire freaking NFL. Like, he's held DK Metcalf twice, Justin Jefferson, Romeo Dobbs, and I know, Gabriel Davis. He's held all those guys to 45 or less scoreless receiving yards in their coverage. So I think it's a middling performance. Unless Todd Monkin does what Todd Monkin does not want to do and he leans on Derrick Henry and gives him 20 to 25 carries, then maybe Baltimore looks a little bit better here.
- [12:06]
A
It's pretty frustrating as a Ravens fan, how many times we've had post game press conferences in the last three years where there's been a question about, like, why don't you guys run more? And Harbaugh's like, yeah, we wanted to. So we'll have to figure out how that happened. Keeps happening. I'm like, like, first of all, this is under your control. You could just decide. Second of all, like, how is this a conversation? So it's just happened so many times. It's become remarkably frustrating for me. Yeah. Fits. How do you see this? I mean, interestingly, like, Lamar and Burrow are back to back in ecr. Not that most people have to make that kind of decision, but, you know, do you have a strong preference of, like, which quarterback you think is going to have a better game? This one. I kind of do think we're going to see a better Ravens offensive performance than two weeks ago on the in that Thursday game. I kind of have been feeling like this is the one because a lot of people talked about it last week, like, okay, we'll finally get it against the Steelers. I know Erickson and I talked about that on our show and I was like, I don't know. He usually struggles against the Steelers. I think the turnovers really just like threw every a wrench into everything two weeks ago against Cincinnati. I kind of think the Ravens offense is going to be better this week. What do you think?
- [13:09]
B
Yeah, they had 346 yards of offense against the Bengals on Thanksgiving night and that's often good enough to win, but they did keep shooting themselves in the foot. The Ravens had five turnovers season high. So I do think they'll do better this time around. I would like to see them stick with the run. And even if DJ Turner is able to take out Zay Flowers, hey man, it's the Bengals and the Ravens have two tight ends and tight ends just destroy the Bengals. So we might see Mark Andrews and Isaiah likely both have good days for fantasy. But yeah, overall, this, I'm sure you're not used to this worm. The. The Ravens are 13th in points per game and 19th in the league in yardage per game. So not, not terrible. Pretty average. But that is certainly not what we have become accustomed to from the Ravens offense.
- [14:02]
A
Yeah, I, I think that, like, it would not surprise me if this is the first game where we, we come out of it saying Lamar really does look back. I think even like tears a flowers point D, bro. You know, if, if not for that Opi call, he would have had a decently long touchdown in the last matchup with the Bengals and, and kind of had his day look a little bit better. Like, like Lamar's day could have looked a lot better in that game. The first matchup with Cincinnati if if likely doesn't fumble if they don't call OPI like he could have had like a 300 yard multiple touchdown game and it was like just enough miscues that it didn't happen. And I kind of feel like this might be the game where those miscues finally don't happen. But maybe that's, that's just hope on my end.
- [14:45]
C
Feels like a little bit of you're sipping the hopium right now.
- [14:48]
A
He's historically so good against the Bengals. I thought he ran better against the Steelers too. Like I'm, I, I think the mobility is like getting to be more normal or, or close to normal for him. So I don't know. It's just. It's just a feeling. I. I'm not saying I'm definitely going to be right about it. Let's go to Cardinals at Texans here. Jacoby Brissette, who I mentioned earlier has been a godsend for QB needy fantasy managers basically right away. Since taking over for Kyler Murray this year, he's finished QB12 or better in all eight starts this season. Obviously we are going to lower expectations for any quarterback against this Houston defense, but just how low are we going for Brissette coming on into this game on a hot streak, but so is this Houston defense.
- [15:29]
B
Fitz yeah, the confidence level is pretty low this week. The Texans are just so good on defense. Man, they are terrifying to go against. They have the lowest opponent passer rating in the league at 69.8 and I know the passer rating number doesn't mean a lot to people. So just to put that into perspective, 69.8. Their opponent passer rating, J.J. mcCarthy's passer rating this year is only slightly lower at 67.4. And the Texans opponent passer rating is lower than Jake Browning's passer rating this season.
- [16:01]
A
Wow.
- [16:03]
B
So opposing quarterbacks are completing 57.1% of their throws. Against the Texans only the Eagles have a lower opponent completion rate and opponents are averaging 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Against the Texans only the Seahawks and Packers are lower than that. So I do think we're going to get fairly heavy passing volume out of the Cardinals. That's just how they're rolling these days. They don't run the ball especially well and probably won't this week against Houston. It's easy to envision Jacoby Brissette throwing 40 times for something like 240 yards and one touchdown. And because such a high percentage of his throws go to Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, I think it's fine to start those guys. I just don't want to start Brissette himself. And I guess the doomsday scenario here, especially if you've got Trey McBride or Michael Wilson, is that maybe the Cardinals just can't move the ball and they have a bunch of three and outs. So they're only running like 40 offensive plays. And then you know, maybe Brissette finishes with 160 yards and that, that is the fear if you're a McBride or Wilson stakeholder.
- [17:10]
A
Yeah. Debro Brissette has he started off the week? I think he was about QB18. He has dropped down to QB22. So the consensus rankings are also mirroring kind of how we all feel, which is, holy cow, like the worst matchup you can have and just having very, very low expectations. Pretty much all the guys in that back end, QB2 range, I would rather start than Brissette. I just don't want. I mean we've seen Josh Allen have a terrible game against the Texas. We see Patrick Mahomes have a terrible game against the Texans. Why are we trusting Jacoby Brissette to do any better? So like I, I want to get away from him if it is at all possible. I am interested in your thoughts not just on Brissette D. RO but on Michael Wilson. He is still ranked inside the top 12. I would. Even with Marvin Harrison Jr. Still out, like, I'd be pretty nervous about that. If I'm in a shallow league. I would actually be fine not playing Michael Wilson, even with the volume he's been getting as of late. I just think this defense is. Is that scary that I want to avoid them. And I, I'm just going to be kicking myself if I, if I play anybody outside of Trey McBride, like you just can't get away from him. If I'm playing anybody in this offense outside of Trey McBride and they have a terrible game and it knocks me out of the playoffs, I'm going to be kicking myself because I'm like, we knew this is the toughest matchup they can have. So I'm. I'm a little lower than top 12 on Michael Wilson. I'm obviously very low at Jacoby Brissette. How do you feel about the both of those guys?
- [18:23]
C
I've got Jacobe Brissette at QB24 right now. Fitzy not to. To go too far back into the wayback machine. Who you starting this week, Shador Sanders or Jacoby Brissette?
- [18:33]
B
I've got Brissette ranked higher, but I don't feel good about it. QB 21 versus QB 25.
- [18:40]
A
Yeah.
- [18:40]
C
And I've got, I've got Shador at QB 22 versus Brissetta, QB 24. So I mean that's kind of where I'm at with Brissette, man. Like, I think the bubble gets popped this week. I think like in. To your point, Worm? Yeah. Like Patrick McGom says hi. Josh Allen says hi. Better quarterbacks. I did the volume and I guess the only thing I'll push back on is Michael Wilson. Like, dude, you talked about, like if McBride, like how am I not starting him if I get burned? I mean the same Things apply for Michael Wilson. Like he has been freaking amazing. Like he's going to sniff 10 plus targets at minimum. Probably more likely living in the 12 to 15 range. And for that type of volume, I, I, I'll just say like, I don't care about the matchup. Like giving that type of volume to him because he's had a tough matchup. Like the Rams too, their secondary is no pushover. So like I know this one's better and I'm worried about Brissette. I still think Michael Wilson, you, you're starting him regardless because the target volume and, and this is also like a larger conversation about just the wide receiver position just in general this week. So many guys in this like wide receiver 2 to 3 range where it's like, like I just talked about Zay Flowers. I don't feel good about him this week. I don't feel good about Stefon Diggs. I don't feel good about any of the Chargers guys. I don't feel good about any of the Broncos. Like so there's so many guys that, where I just don't feel good about their matchups. I don't feel good about Michael Wilson's matchup, but I know he's going to get a crap ton of targets and in garbage time and what have you that night might not matter.
- [20:11]
B
We, we should also mention that Brissetta is going to be without a starting left tackle, Paris Johnson in this game. That could be a problem. But the one thing about Wilson that's nice and this is kind of a thing with Trey McBride too, these guys are kind of possession guys, short area guys like Brissette gets the ball out quickly to mitigate the pass rush. So maybe not having Paris Johnson against will Anderson and company won't be ruinous. If you know, it's just three step drop fire short completions, we might see 8 for 68 for Michael Wilson, but I think you'd take that.
- [20:48]
C
Yeah. On with this wide receiver slate. You might, I mean you, that could be top 15 numbers this week.
- [20:54]
A
See, see, I don't know what I was going to say is like I, it's not that I'm saying he shouldn't be ranked in a startable range. It's that like I don't, that doesn't sound like a top 12 wide receiver to me. Like, I, I think that if you're in a, if you're in a pretty standard sized league with, you know, let's say it's two receivers and a flex that you're starting you know, depending on the format, I think it's very possible that you are going to this week and on your team you have, like, George Pickens, A.J. brown, and like, Tedro McMillan or something like that. Like, I think there's gonna be a lot of teams out there that have three receivers that you can get to that I would say, like, I just don't want to mess with this Texas defense. I know, like, against the Rams, it was okay. The Texans are on a different level. I feel like I am really terrified of, of what this Cardinals offense will look like.
- [21:34]
B
I get it. But, like, if I'm laying odds on who gets more targets between Michael Wilson and Ted are McMillan, I'm taking Wilson, and I'm probably laying a target and a half to Ted or McMillan.
- [21:47]
A
I think that's fair. I just, I just don't think it'll be enough to, to help. I am, I think that the targets will not matter in this one. I guess my ultimate point, I, I don't think that he's going to do anything with him. I don't think he's going to get a touchdown. I could be totally wrong. He has been so good as of late, and obviously Brissette will pepper him when he has the opportunity. I just don't think the Texas defense is going to give him many opportunities.
- [22:06]
C
I mean, back to this slate about wide receivers. So you feel more confident starting Jalen Waddle on a Dolphins passing attack that does not and will not throw the ball more than 25 times. You feel more comfortable playing Justin Jefferson, Ted McMillan.
- [22:21]
A
Not just Jefferson. Don't put those words in my mouth.
- [22:23]
C
No, but, like, but that's what I'm talking about. Like, this wide receiver slate is rough. And it's rough, like, outside of, like, the top, like, six to seven guys. So, like, I think, like, with that type of volume, like, I'm starting him, and I just do not care about the matchup.
- [22:38]
A
Yeah, yeah, I, I, I disagree, but I think it's fine to move on. I'm, I'm just, like, very, very scared. And I, I think some of these guys, like, won Dale and Olave, who are a little ranked a little lower. I'd like to be totally fine if somebody just didn't want to mess with the Texans defense, but. All right, let's go to. Actually, I want to talk about Hard Rock bet. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. If you're listening to this podcast, you're probably deep in the stats, injury reports and matchups Put your fantasy football knowledge to the test on Hard Rock Bet. New customers can sign up a bet $5 on any game. If it wins, you'll find $150 in bonus bets on top of your winnings stuffed in your stocking. Now that is holiday magic. Not sure what to place your first bet on? Hard Rock Bet just launched a brand new for you page, making it easy to find all your favorite teams, players and leagues all in one place. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida. It's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan. Coming soon to more states too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day, so whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet apple and make your first deposit payable and bonus bets.
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- [26:24]
C
Not very. I mean his his role has evolved into being the wide receiver one and having the leading target share to he is quickly become the wide receiver two slash three like he's fighting Britain. Strange for the number two spot in the target pecking order, Jacoby Myers is their unquestioned wide receiver one. Since week 13 he has been just their field stretcher. 55% of his target volume has come via deep targets and against look, we could say it's the jets dude, but their their past defense has quietly been respectable if not pretty decent since week nine. They're giving up so specifically this role for BTJ. They're giving up the 13th lowest deep ball completion rate and the sixth fewest deep passing yards per game. So Brian Thomas Jr. Will probably have more moments before the end of the season depending on the matchups and stuff. This is not one where I want to start him. Like there's a bunch of other guys in wide receiver three territory. Like you talked about the Giants passing attack. Like I feel better about playing Darius Slayton this week than I do about playing Brian Thomas Jr. And that's a sad statement to make.
- [27:32]
A
He's wide receiver 29 in half PPR. Yeah. What do you think about that ranking?
- [27:39]
B
So I'm gonna I'm gonna make the counter argument to Debro here. I'm a little above consensus at wide receiver 27 and here's why. So number one. I mean since in the two games back from his high ankle sprain he is averaged 12.8 yards per targets looked a lot more like the 2024 version of BTJ and the win over the Colts last week. Like no, none of these horrible drops that plagued him early in the season. The only issue is that he's had three and six targets in these last two games. And yes, undeniable that Kobe Myers is the wide receiver one in Jacksonville now and the Jaguars could get Parker Washington back from a hip injury this week. So the target outlook is sort of murky and does dampen my enthusiasm a little bit. But Trevor Lawrence probably playing the best he's ever played since coming into the NFL ever since the Jaguars by and I feel good enough about the way BTJ and the Jacksonville passing game is trending to rank him as a high end wide receiver. 3 Not an automatic start by any means, but I think you can start him.
- [28:49]
A
By the way, just quickly, is Trevor Lawrence inside the top 12 for you guys? Just because you mentioned him, Fitz?
- [28:53]
B
He is.
- [28:55]
C
I'm pretty sure I bumped him up to 12 last night. Yeah, I've got. Well actually I've got him at QB11.
- [29:00]
A
Yep, he's 11 in ECR too. So you're right in line with consensus. Let's go to Chargers at Chiefs. What kind of usage do you guys expect from the Chargers backfield? And now that we have seen a game with Omari and Hampton back in it, Fitz, I'll start with you on this one. I'm guessing both of you are kind of just going to throw your hands up and say who knows. But do you have any thoughts on this?
- [29:21]
B
Yeah. So last week it was Kamani Vidal. I think it was either. I know in Pro Football reference they said 51 snap. Someone else had 49 but it was like 51 or 50 to to 23. So it was more than double the snaps for Kymani Vidal. Although Hampton did get 15 touches, he touched the ball in almost 2/3 of his snap. So that was kind of encouraging. I think it is inevitable that the workload split will start to tilt back toward Hampton. Tough to tell what it's going to look like against the Chiefs. I'm guessing probably close to a 5050 put. Put it this way though, I think Vidal is still going to be involved enough that I noticed last night while watching Buccaneers Falcons that his rushing yardage prop was 26 and a half yards on Hard Rock bet and I I went ahead and bet the over on Kamani Vidal's rushing yardage. I think he gets more than 26 and a half yards.
- [30:16]
A
Do you think Fitz before I toss a debro that if you wanted to, you could start both of these guys. Just given that like with the offensive line troubles, it feels like the Chargers are going to have to run the ball and there'll maybe be enough to go around. Or would you want to try to pick one or the other?
- [30:32]
B
That's a good point. I don't want to start both on the same team, but I think in a pinch, maybe Vidal could be flex worthy like in a deeper league. And I do think you, you make a good point about them. Like they have to keep Justin Herbert out of the hospital because they just could not protect him against the Eagles. They have to ramp up the running game. I think, although that bad offensive line is probably going to be an issue for the running backs too against the Chiefs, especially with Steve Spagnolo, whose defense is always tough against the run. So I think you could. I wouldn't feel great about starting Kamani Vidal, quite honestly, but in a deep league, if, if you're squeezed, maybe.
- [31:16]
A
Debra, the gap here on ECR, Hampton is RB28 and Videl is RB42.
- [31:23]
C
Wow. Why? I just have to ask why? Like, they got the same workload. Kamani Vidal like crushed him in snaps. He played 69 of the snaps. He had a 56 route share. Like defense's point. Like, yeah, like Hampton got 15 touches on 22 snaps. This is a horrible matchup. I think both these guys are RB3s. Like I've got Hampton at RB31, I've got Kamani Vidal right now. I've got him at RB36. But I think the conversation starts somewhere in the, in the mid RB3 range because I think you're going to see a 50, 50 split. And again, defense's point, like you're probably going to see like 12 to 15 touches for both these backs because they do not want. And for good reason. Justin Herbert throwing the frickin ball very much. And so I think this game is going to kind of be a rock fight, or at least that's what the Chargers want it to be like. If they can keep this score low, they can bleed at the clock and run the ball and it's not going to be efficient. I do agree that Hampton should be ranked ahead of Adele for one specific reason. Even though he only played 31% of the snaps, he was the clear goal lineback. He had five red zone rushing attempts and Commandee Vidal had one. So if you're touchdown hunting or it's like I need a touchdown out of one of these guys to save my Day in fantasy, then, yeah, you're betting on Hampton over Vidal, but I think both these guys are flex worthy.
- [32:44]
B
See, I'm, I'm cool with that rankings gap because of three things. One, as you mentioned, Debro goal line number two, I think we saw last week that Hampton is going to get the ball in a higher percentage of his snaps than Vidal is. So if they have the same number of snaps, no doubt in my mind Hampton's going to finish with more touches. And I think Hampton's just better.
- [33:04]
C
Yeah, it's fair.
- [33:05]
A
Yeah. I'm not totally surprised by the snap disparity in the first game back, like, hey, you know, he's coming back after a long layoff. Let's just like, only have him on the field when we're going to use him. And also, like, he really struggled in pass protection and so they were like using Videl, you know, in those scenarios a lot more. So I wouldn't be surprised if that snap percentage gets a little bit closer too. And, and I agree with you, Fitz, that he'll probably touch the ball more. Let's go to Bills at Patriots. Really fun game. It's the high total and a small spread. The total's at 49 and a half. The spread is at bills minus one. At least that's what it was when I put this together. That's a recipe for a great game. So I'm really excited about this one. Just in general to watch as a fan. Um, obviously the Patriots won this game in the first, you know, time they faced off back in, I want to say, week five, week four, week five, something like that. One difference from the first meeting, though, is that Trayvon Henderson is now a lot more involved for the Patriots at this point in the season. Maybe not still quite as much as we wanted, but it is definitely more than it was in that first month of the year. So, Debro, where are you ranking Trayvon Henderson against this, you know, kind of poor Bills rush defense this week?
- [34:09]
C
I've got him in RB16 and I would like to bump him higher, but the fact that he got out snapped by Ramandre Stevenson is real. Like, he played 47.6% of the snaps. He had a 41% route share. What I think can carry Travion higher this week is I quietly think he's going to be massively involved in the passing game this week. And just how I'm projecting that game. It is a horrible matchup for Hunter Henry. It is a horrible matchup for Stefon Diggs because I Think he gets shadow coverage from Christian Benford. And so who the heck are you left throwing the ball to in this offense against the defense that's really good versus tight ends? They're probably going to try to take away your number one wide receiver and then you've got a lot of low volume pass catchers outside of that. So Travion, I might bump him further up the ranks just because I do think this is a game where he could see five to six targets maybe a little bit more in this matchup.
- [35:07]
A
Interestingly, Fitz Trayon was ranked higher earlier in the week. He has gone down a lot. Erickson and I, when we did our show on Tuesday morning he was RB13. Now here on Friday morning he's down to RB19 in the consensus rankings. So the rankers are fading him relative to where he started the week at 19. Feels maybe like a little low. That's obviously a few spots lower than you know, where DBRO has him. What do you think Fitz?
- [35:31]
B
Yeah, I noticed when I first did rankings on when I hit publish on those Tuesday morning I was like well behind consensus on him and I'm like did these people sleep through the Week 13 game and not realize that Ramon Dre had more snaps and touches? But then again like I'm okay with that for Henderson because I don't think we expected him to be a workhorse coming out of Ohio State where he was not a workhorse in his final college season. And I don't think had more than 12 carries in any game when he was splitting work with Quinch on Judkins. So I've got a Marb 18. I think he can do perfectly fine with the 5050 split. And like Debro said, there's passing game upside here and there's certainly some rushing upside against a bad run defense like the this is a bottom six or bottom seven run defense in the league. So yeah, I mean he doesn't need a lot of touches to have a good fantasy day.
- [36:31]
A
Yeah, like the problem early in the year is he's get like in that first Buffalo game for example, he gets six carries. Like we don't need him to get 20 but can he get to 10 or 11? And then I think like if you get a touchdown you're looking at a pretty good day from him against a defense of run defense like this. So if he can just get kind of closer to that like double digit range then yeah I think he can outperform this ranking here. Especially if he's getting work in the passing game like, like you're saying D, bro. Who do you guys think wins this game? By the way, it is still bills minus one with a total at 49 and a half. How would you bet it? D, bro.
- [37:06]
C
I, I would take the over and I probably. I'm just not touching the spread. Like if I gotta go with a winner. Oh, dude. I think the Patriots win.
- [37:16]
A
Okay, Fitz, do you see it the same or differently?
- [37:18]
B
I think it's coming down to the wire. I'll say. I'll say. Bill's at the gun this time.
- [37:23]
A
Okay. I do think it'll be close. Yeah, I think this will be right.
- [37:25]
C
Whoever has the ball last is going to win this game.
- [37:27]
A
Yeah. Let Autopilot manage your fantasy football lineup automatically so you never have to worry about last minute changes. Auto swap inactive players and ensure your lineup is always optimized even when you can't be online. Take control with the flexibility to approve lineup changes via email or let Autopilot handle everything. Stay ahead with my playbook. Autopilot available now for Fantasy Pros Premium subscribers@fantasyprose.com MyPlaybook or on the Fantasy Pros app. Next game up here, guys. Commanders at Giants Pick One player in this matchup fits whose consensus ranking you most disagree with.
- [38:01]
B
Chris Rodriguez. I met running back 34, which is like six spots behind ECR. I, I don't get the fascination with this guy, quite honestly. I guess he gives you a decent chance of a touchdown. He's only scored four this season, but he's had in his last five games. But otherwise there's only been one game this season in which Rodriguez has had more than 12 carries. He had 15 carries in one game, has never hit 80 rushing yards in a game, and he is a complete zero in the passing game. Only two targets and one six yard reception this season. I know the matchup against the Giants is appealing. Running backs are averaging like 6 yards per carry against the Giants. They're just flat out bad against the run. I just don't know if Rodriguez gets enough volume or is good enough to, to take advantage of this matchup. Plus, he's a little banged up. He's dealing with a groin injury. I think he missed Wednesday practice but was back on Thursday.
- [38:55]
A
Deborah, if you're going to rank Chris Rodriguez as a start, you should also just bet his anytime touchdown because like that's the only path to him being a good start. He's, he's, He's a running back 30 by the way, in ECR. What do you think? DBRA?
- [39:10]
C
I'm kind of. I mean, I'm with Fitzy that I'm behind ecr, but, like, there's just a few guys that I like a little bit more versus Rodriguez. Like, I've got. And I. I think he does get into the end zone this week. So, I mean, I've got him at RB33, but the guy that I want to highlight, and I'll go back to him here, Darius Slayton, like, why he's buried as a wide receiver. 4. I don't understand. Like, I think that and just part of how I'm projecting this game. I think this game is going to be a slop Vest. I think it's going to be a quiet shootout. Both these defenses freaking suck. So, like, really, like, I mean, Marcus Mariota showed the ability to play quarterback and put up numbers, and now they got a healthy offense for Washington. Like, they did that against the Broncos. What are they going to do against the freaking Giants? So, like, with Slayton, he's already shown the ability to be a wide receiver. Three. Like, over the last six weeks, like, he's had top 36 finishes of wide receiver 34, 27, and 19. The commander's secondary is terrible versus perimeter wide receivers. They're terrible versus deep passing. So checking the boxes for Darius Slayton. Like, I've got him as a wide receiver. 3. This week, I've got him at wide receiver 34, which, I know it sounds insane, but, dude, like, I want to bet on this role. I want to bet on this game to sit here and score more points than other people are. And what's the difference in tying, like, Keisha Boute to a really, like, good matchup versus D passing and Darius Slayton? There's no difference to me. So Slayton. Giddy up, Debra.
- [40:34]
A
The good news is he's actually no longer ranked as a wide receiver. 4. The bad news is he's now ranked as a wide receiver. 5.
- [40:40]
C
Why?
- [40:41]
B
Why?
- [40:42]
A
Receiver 51.
- [40:43]
C
I don't. Good Lord. I don't get that.
- [40:46]
A
So you definitely are well. But where do you have him ranked? Fits, by the way? Slayton, just quickly.
- [40:49]
B
Wide receiver 39. I see it much the same way DBRO does.
- [40:53]
A
So also well ahead of consensus.
- [40:54]
C
Like. Like, who are we starting over? Darius Slayton this week? You feel better about Khalil Shakir and his 50 route share. You feel better about Jordan Addison in the matchup, Alec Pierce with Philip Rivers, or who the heck knows, Adai Mitchell. Like, who are we ranking above freaking Darius Slayton in this game? Like, I don't understand that.
- [41:10]
A
Like, all those names you mentioned are at least 10 spots higher than Slayton.
- [41:15]
C
I know. That's why it sounds asinine.
- [41:17]
B
I have him. I have Shakira ahead of him, but I do have him one spot ahead of Jordan Addison.
- [41:23]
C
Yeah, like, I, I just don't understand, like, what, what are we doing here?
- [41:26]
A
Yeah. To be fair, by the way, these rankings still do have the, like, Atlanta and Tampa Bay players in there. So if you take them out, he would be a little higher than 51. He would at least be inside the top 50. So not that that helps you too much with your, with your ranking, but let's go to the last game in the early slate here on Sunday. It's Raiders at Eagles. Brock Bowers, who we mentioned at the top of the show, one of the best tight ends in football, arguably the best. But the Eagles are maybe the toughest matchup for tight ends this season. So given the matchup, are you willing to consider sitting Bowers this week? Fitz, I'll start with you because we kind of already touched on this a bit at the top of the show. We know a little bit about how you feel.
- [42:00]
B
Yeah. You know the answer to this question where I'm not willing to sit him. And it is a tough matchup, but does it get any tougher than it was against the Broncos where he had Patrick Certain junior covering him for much of that game? So I'm, I'm still starting Brock Bowers there.
- [42:16]
A
It is possible though, Fitz, like, I know Pitts wasn't enough for you, but, like, somebody could easily have maybe picked up Harold Fannin and after drafting Brock Bowers and he's ranked just one spot behind Bowers in ecr, somebody like him, would you consider, like, if with. With them being ranked back to back and fade in the matchup or you're still like, no, unless I have like, somehow Trey McBride or like Kittle, you're just going Bowers.
- [42:37]
B
You know, I have Fan in one spot behind Bowers and maybe if it was going to be 45 degrees in Chicago with no wind, I'd consider it. But not, not when it's going to be the ice ball.
- [42:47]
A
Yeah, that's fair. Debro, what do you think? Where's Bowers ranked for you? Is he somebody that you're at all willing to consider getting off of or you're just starting him no matter what?
- [42:54]
C
I got him at tight end three, and I'm just gonna make this very short and quick and easy. Hell no. I'm not sitting Brock Bowers. Like, I, I Just I don't care like it to me, we talked about the wide receivers position in the state of this. What tight end are we going to make a case for starting over? Freaking Brock Bowers? Like, like fine, we can revision his history and talk about Kyle Pitts. But Tyler Warren with who knows plays at quarterback. Travis Kelsey who looks like he is absolutely cooked. Jake Ferguson probably doesn't play. Then what are we? Dalton Kincaid and a less than 50 route share. Mark Andrews who has sucked when he hasn't scored touchdowns. Hell no. I'm sitting. I'm not, not sitting.
- [43:35]
B
That's McBride and Kittle and that's it.
- [43:37]
C
That then that. Yeah. End of list.
- [43:40]
A
Yeah. I think Fannin and Pitts were the two that you could make a case for that was were possible that you would have on your team with Bowers because a lot of these other guys, you, you almost certainly didn't draft them. If you had drafted Bowers, Fannin and Pitts, you could have picked up later either much later in the draft or even maybe off waivers early in the year. So those are the two that are ranked inside the top five that you could have maybe had a choice to make. Obviously like you said, it's revisionist history with Pitts. And then Fannin, you know, has this weather stuff that Fitz mentioned. So I'm not even like really trying to sit here and make the case for sitting powers. I just wanted to ask the question because of, because of the matchup and also because of the quarterback. I mean it is Kenny Pickett and you know that's.
- [44:15]
C
Can he play any worse than Geno Smith? Well, it's, I mean honestly asking the question can he?
- [44:20]
A
It's a fair point. I don't really have anything else on this game. So we'll move on to the late afternoon slate here. How about packers at Broncos? Fitz, are you excited for this game?
- [44:29]
B
I am. I mean the two teams leading their conferences so. And interesting that I know the packers and Broncos are both underdogs to get the number one seed according to the mathematical models. Like even though the packers currently have it, I think they were given an 11% chance to get it according to one model I saw behind the Rams and, and Seahawks. So we'll see. But yeah, this is a, this is going to be a fun game and, and Worm, I know it's in your neck of the woods. Like while we're shivering here in the upper Midwest, I saw that the game time temperature for that game is going to be like 58 degrees or something.
- [45:05]
A
Yesterday here in Denver. It was in the 60s.
- [45:08]
C
Wow.
- [45:08]
A
On Thursday. Yeah, it was. It was. It's really been cr. We had snow like a week and a half.
- [45:13]
C
Everybody's wearing shorts to the game. Got it.
- [45:15]
A
Yeah. Yeah. I hadn't looked. It has been crazy windy this week. I will say. I don't know what that will look like on Sunday. It has been really windy these last couple of days out here. But. But very warm. Yeah. I've been walking my dog like without a jacket. Like mid December.
- [45:29]
C
It's been crazy worms wearing a tank top just walking his dog in 60 degree weather in Denver.
- [45:33]
A
I am not a tank top guy. Packers at Broncos I want with these two teams. I had to ask with dbro, two of your favorite players in the world, who finishes higher at their respective position? Dbro, RJ Harvey or Christian Watson?
- [45:49]
C
I'm surprisingly and I'm not high on either one of these guys this week. I'm going to go Harvey and it only comes down to the touchdown equity in his offense. Like he's probably going to get somewhere in the range of 15 to 18 touches in this game. Probably. And I hope more usage in the passing game because it's a horrible rushing matchup for RJ Harvey. But again he could end up with two touchdowns. Like I don't think Sean Payton is going to want to trust Bo Nix inside the red zone against this past defense. So it could just be literally and he's been their clear goal lineback. It could be pound the rock with RJ Harvey. He gets two touchdowns. It saves his day. And I would love to tell you Christian Watson bro vs Patrick certain ID I don't want any of that smoke.
- [46:36]
A
Harvey is ranked higher at his position in acr. Fitz, before I tell you where those rankings are, maybe you looked it up already. But before I tell you, I don't want you to anchor to those numbers. Who do you think will finish better?
- [46:46]
B
It's Harvey. I mean if you have a, if you have a good offensive line, you can run on the Packers a little bit. It's a good run defense. But like we saw the Bears run on them with some degree of success last week and the Bears have a good offensive line. I think Denver is a really good offensive line. So it's just like Deborah. Do you think Certain does shadow Christian Watson or do you think it's going to. Maybe we get a little bit of Riley.
- [47:16]
C
I'm 5050 on whether he follows him or Dobbs. I do think it's Watson only because he's been the explosive player downfield. Like he's been their, their chunk guy. So like, I think if you want to stifle Jordan, Love, you probably hurting him a lot more if you take away Christian Watson than if you take away doves.
- [47:32]
B
Yeah. Even if it's not shadow coverage from certain the problem is that Watson has a very deep, average depth of target and you just don't get that much against the Denver pass rush, Nick Bonito and friends. So yeah, I mean, The Broncos have 55 sacks and what, no one else has more than 46. So. And the packers offensive line has been better in protection lately. Love has had a lot of time to throw the last couple of weeks against the Lions and Bears, but I don't know if that's going to be the case against Denver. That's just a different animal.
- [48:05]
A
Christian Watson three in his last four weeks wide receiver five wide receiver 36 wide receiver 12 wide receiver five he has five touchdowns in that span since week 11. But you heard it here first. D Bro hates him. Thinks he's a terrible player. He's never gonna start again.
- [48:19]
C
Oh good Lord, here we go. Here we go.
- [48:22]
A
If you want a chance to win Bijan Robinson and Drake London Signed Mini helmet for free Courtesy of our friends@pristineauction.com all you need to do is head to fantasypros.com contest, complete the form and either download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review for the podcast, or follow us on X Instagram, or tick tock at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive. We will be announcing a winner right here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTub YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. Next game here guys, Lions at Rams. I want to see what the total is at now because earlier in the week it was as high as 56. It's at 55 now on hard rock bet so came down a hair but obviously still super high. It's the highest game of the season that I can recall. I I can't think I want even getting close to this but but yeah, with all the offense expected in in Lions Rams give me one player each that you guys are actually fading in this game and maybe saying it doesn't end up being these crazy fireworks. De Bro, I'll start with you here.
- [49:22]
C
I I could name two touchdown dependent running backs in this game. I'm going to go with the the sexier name that everybody I think we're point chasing here Blake Corum, like he's going to get eight to 12 carries and versus the Detroit line. And again we talked about Chris Rodriguez previously not having any past game involvement.
- [49:40]
A
Okay.
- [49:40]
C
Hello Blake Corm. He has no past game role. So if he doesn't score a touchdown, I think a lot of people are like kind of looking to last week versus like a bottom five run defense and they want to point Chase and like oh, he's a flex play. I do not want to flex Blake Corum. Not against the run defense that since week 10 has allowed the second lowest explosive run rate, 11th lowest rushing success rate. Nope.
- [50:02]
A
I'm sitting in in this game D row he is ranked two spots higher than Montgomery. Do you agree with that?
- [50:07]
C
I. No, I don't agree with that.
- [50:12]
A
It's kind of funny. They're in this. There's this stretch of four names. Corum, Charbonnet, Montgomery and Algier who obviously already played where going into the week you would say like these are just like touchdown dependent guys and split backfields. Like do they get in the end zone or not? So. So two of them here in this game are ranked in that. That kind of grouping. Going.
- [50:28]
C
Going to ecr. Just to let you know where I'm at with Corum. Where is. And I'm pro. He's probably behind him. I would play Ramandre Stevenson over Blake Quorum.
- [50:36]
A
Like Stevenson is two spots ahead of Quorum. They're RB36 and RB38 respectively. Okay, Fitz, what do you think? Who's a player that you are fading in this game?
- [50:46]
B
Well, for the record, I've got those guys ranked all in a row. Quorum, Montgomery, Ramandre. So I'll have to off to reassess that. But yeah, I mean so I agree with what Debro said about Corum and I don't especially want to play Montgomery either. But as far as my rankings, I'm like right around ECR on those guys. Relative to ecr, my biggest fade in this game is Devonte Adams and I have him ranked wide receiver 7. So ECR is at wide receiver 5. It's not exactly a fade, but I'm just inclined to sort of be a little lower than consensus on touchdown driven production profiles. And now obviously we have been getting an avalanche of touchdowns with Devonte Adams 14 this season in 13 games and 11 over his last seven games. But over those seven games where he's at 11 touchdowns, he's only averaging 46 receiving yards a game. But basically 40% of his catches are touchdowns. So fading him relative to ECR, but I'm certainly not telling anyone to bench Devonte Adams in a game with a total of 55.
- [51:54]
C
I I didn't realize I was where's he at an ECR57.5 5. Apparently I'm fading. I I I'm glove that we brought this conversation up because apparently I'm fading devonte Adams too. And I'm fading him like I've got him at wide receiver nine right now. Like there's just other guys this week that I like more than devonte Adams and this is not a do not play him. I hate devonte Adams take. But like I think Rasheed Rice bounces back. I think A.J. brown has another monster game. I even want to play Nico Collins over devonte Adams this week.
- [52:25]
A
I like the under on this game by the way. With such a high total. I'm, I'm often the guy who's like these are two great offenses. Too bad defenses. Of course it's going to go over. I don't care if it's a sucker's bet in this case. I'm like, I do actually kind of like the under but both these teams scored in the mid-40s last week. I just like kind of think there will be some a little bit of coming back to earth. The Rams defense is really good. Like I said, like I get that the Detroit's defense is really banged up. The Rams have an awesome defense. Like I, I just think this is not gonna go like highest total of the year. I think is too high. I, I, I would take you guys agree.
- [52:56]
C
I, I, I, I wholeheartedly agree. Like we've talked about this on so many different shows. When you get these totals that get above 50, there's just too many pathways to failure. And like I move the ball and.
- [53:09]
A
Then just end up kicking field goals. Like yeah, there's and that's not even.
- [53:12]
C
Talking about like when you get into like play volume and pace and, and all this. No, I don't, I'm not touching the total at all. Nope. Yeah.
- [53:21]
A
Let's go to Panthers at Saints. Fitz, Bryce Young and Tyler Schuck are back to back in ECR for QBs this week. Obviously they're not guys that you're really considering in a 1 QB format. But in Super Flex, who would you like better, Chuck or Young? By the way, Chuck is QB 23, Young is QB 24.
- [53:39]
B
I've got Young, QB 22 and, and Chuck QB 26. Like but that whole tier, Shador Sanders is on that tier as Well I think I've got Brissette down on that tier just because I hate his matchup so much. JJ McCarthy is in there and not a horrible matchup against Dallas. I've got Aaron Rodgers on that tier like it's messy and I think I could order those guys in basically any which way and it would be just as fine to me as the way I have them.
- [54:11]
A
Now.
- [54:15]
C
I've got a little bit Pray for me as a Saints fan. I don't want to like him, but I do Tower Shock I I've got more conviction on Shock. Like I've got him and I say more conviction. I've got him at QB21 but I've got him ahead of Shador. I've got him ahead of Jacoby Brissette. I've got a deep like not a decent gap but like QB 21 to QB 25 versus Bryce Young. The Saints pass defense is playing much better as of late. And the other thing that I want to highlight with shock dude like three of his five NFL starts he's been a QB one in fantasy, QB 12, QB 12, QB 6. His per drawback numbers have quietly been pretty decent. Like he's ninth and catchable target rate. He's 13th in hero throw rate. Carolina's past defense has taken a step back since week 10. They're giving up the fifth highest success rate per drop back. So oh dear. I actually like Tyler Shuck and that's when he's going to disappoint me and.
- [55:07]
B
I think but like the Saints are the Panthers are actively trying to hide Bryce Young in that offense and I don't think that's necessarily the case with Tyler Shock. So maybe I should have Shock ranked ahead of Young.
- [55:21]
C
Yeah I agree.
- [55:21]
A
I mean Shuck for what it's worth to like 20 carries the last three weeks like combined across the last three weeks and two touchdowns. So giving you some rushing. Obviously a lot of that came in the last week. Both touchdowns and 55 yards but some some rushing production there too which obviously helps a lot in fantasy. Let's go to Colts at Seahawks over under 19 and a half fantasy points for the Seahawks defense this week. I on the prediction show I keep referencing this was one of my predictions of the week that the Seahawks defense would be a like league winner or at the very least a you know winning this matchup single handedly for teams. I think they're just gonna abs I like Philip Rivers, Riley Leonard, whoever like I think the Seahawks defense is going to just like absolutely put the clamps on this team and probably score a touchdown in this honestly. So I am curious what you what you guys think about that. But also, are you willing to start any Colts here besides Jonathan Taylor? Dbra?
- [56:16]
C
I'm willing to. And then this just goes back to the state of the tight end position, but it's also the matchup too. Like I'm willing to start Tyler Warren. Like you're rolling them out there depending on your mat, like depending on who you got and stuff. And Seattle versus tight ends, they've given up the second most receiving yards per game, fourth most fantasy points per game. So. Well, I don't want to play Michael Pittman Jr. I do not want to play Alec Pierce. Josh Downs, okay, fine on a deep league, but like Tyler Warren's the only guy outside of JT that like you're starting because of position and stuff. And yeah, dude, Seattle's gonna win this game.
- [56:52]
A
I mean, yeah, they're gonna win this game by a lot. Yeah. Tyler Warren, like for what it's worth, since week seven he's only been a tight end one twice and one of those games he just had 22 yards and happened to catch a touchdown. Like it hasn't been quite was at the start of the year as this offense has come down a bit and now of course you have this, you know, new quarterback wrinkle. Fitz, what do you think about it all?
- [57:14]
B
I've got Pittman ranked wide receiver 35 and Tyler Warren ranked tight end 10 and I would not feel great about starting either of those guys. And I definitely don't want to start Alec Pierce. He just, his style doesn't really mesh with what Philip Rivers would be. I think as a sort of a deep ball artist maybe Josh Downs would but like Josh Downs on 2/3 snapshare and now I just don't want to mess with that. So I would take the under on 19 and a half fantasy points for the Seattle defense because last we saw Philip Rivers when He was starting 16 game four games for the Colts in 2020, he took 19 sacks in 16 games. And I think if you, when you reach a certain age and we're kind of seeing it with Aaron Rodgers this year, you just do not want to stand in the pocket and buy time to find open receivers and take kill shots. Like you just want to, you know, you want to make it into retirement with your body intact. And I would expect that Philip Rivers is maybe going to make some of those same business decisions and put the ball in the third row if he has to do y' all think river.
- [58:22]
C
Starts this week, by the way. Like Riley Leonard coming out playing full this playing like someone say like Stephen.
- [58:28]
B
Holder of of espn who's like the Colts guy for them. He says all indications based on what he's seen in practice are that they are preparing Philip Rivers to be the starter.
- [58:40]
A
I mean, have we ever seen anything like this? Like a guy who has not he's in his mid-40s, has not played in five years and who is just started practicing this week, starting for a team against a really good defense. Like, I just like it is a crazy situation, which I know people have talked about already, but I just, I can't think of anything even remotely like this in the past. I don't know what to expect if it is Rivers because I, I, I don't know how you have an expectation.
- [59:06]
C
Some fun stuff, dude. Like, I just, I want to see it so bad, dude, because he's been so fun at the media stuff and somebody asked him about his playing weight and he was like his, his answers have been awesome, man. Like I, I want to see him come off the couch and just I don't care if he's dinking and Duncan and he throws for 2:40 and one score and the eight odd is like three. I, I don't care. I just want to see it'll, it'll.
- [59:34]
B
Be fun just to see that goofy release of his one more time. That little alligator arm release he has. Like I, I just want to see it again.
- [59:42]
A
Yeah, I mean it's funny. We're like we're, we've been kind of laughing at, you know, how crazy and fun it is that Joe Flacco has done what he's done at his age. He's four years younger than Philip Rivers. Just like really crazy.
- [59:54]
C
Sidebar how pissed do you think Tom Brady is that he didn't get the call to sit here and come back to. Or maybe he did.
- [60:00]
A
He might have gotten the call.
- [60:01]
C
I know I was say I was like, you know, Tom Brady coming up and just relacing them one more time. But I, I get the river team.
- [60:08]
B
Raiders.
- [60:08]
A
Now.
- [60:08]
B
You can't go to another AFC team when you're. Yeah, basically.
- [60:12]
C
Yeah. Well, maybe because he he, he'll be the Raiders quarterback next year.
- [60:15]
A
I wanted to ask this before we get off so just very quickly because we got to move on. But Tyler Warren or Mark Anderson? Andrews D, bro.
- [60:21]
C
Yeah, I'll take Tyler Warren for the volume.
- [60:26]
B
Andrews.
- [60:27]
A
Okay.
- [60:27]
C
I got no Ravens. Sorry.
- [60:29]
A
Titans at 49ers last game in the late Afternoon slate here. Tony Pollard just gave us one of the most surprising fantasy performances of the season. 25 carries, 161 yards and two touchdowns in Cleveland. What are your expectations for him Fitz against the Niners?
- [60:45]
B
You know, well I've got him ranked running back 31 so not very high. He gets touch volume. He's had double digit carries and all but one game this season. Averages about two catches a game. But it is mostly been empty volume before last week. So I just kind of want to pretend that Tony Pollard blow up against the Browns didn't happen. I drafted Pollard in a lot of leagues because of the Taije Spears injury. Spears was on ir. I figured Pollard gets off to a good start as the workhorse the first four weeks and then is at least flex worthy the rest of the way. Last week was the first time all year he's done anything with a heavy volume. Before week 14 Tony Pollard was averaging nine PPR points per game. And over those four first four weeks and Spears was on IR, Pollard averaged 18 and a half touches a game and 10.4 PPR points per game which put him at RB30 and PPR points per game. So he was doing nothing with the volume. I'm basically ignoring last week as far as where I rank him and I know that puts me way behind consensus on him because apparently everyone thinks he's, you know, great.
- [61:56]
A
Now dbro, where do you have him ranked?
- [61:59]
C
Where is ECR at? Because I'm right where the Fitzy. Like we're riding in the same car together. I I have him at RB33. Where's he at in ECR?
- [62:06]
A
ECR actually is RB32. I was going to bring this up after you. Sure. It actually is our 32 so it is a little lower than you might have guessed.
- [62:13]
B
So I'm above. I'm actually above consensus then. Yikes.
- [62:16]
C
That's not where I'm what are you doing? Must start Tony Followers Reconsider your life choices Fitzy. But yeah, everything Fitz talked about and the biggest thing for to add on to I don't want to play Tony Pollard is Last week was his highest carry total of the whole freaking season. It was his first 100 yard rushing day in 2025 and he did all of this and he got zero pass game involvement. He had a 10.3% route share. So against the 49ers like okay, welcome to your game scripted out after the first quarter. I mean like if the 49ers put up 21 points in the first quarter and score in their first three drives. Bye bye. Tony Pollard. You're gonna go see the bench. You're not running routes. Okay. Like, forget it. Don't care.
- [63:06]
A
Dbro hates Christian Watson. Fitz loves Tony Pollard. Our pets. Heads are falling off. It's crazy.
- [63:12]
C
Things are flying. Good lord. We don't want to play Tyler Warren.
- [63:18]
A
Let's talk about another player that DBRO loves. Vikings at Cowboys. J. JJ McCarthy finally had a good game against a terrible defense, and Justin Jefferson still finished with just two catches for 11 yards. He's only been higher than wide receiver 25 once since Week 5, and yet he's still ranked inside the top 16 at the position in ECR that was actually earlier in the week. Let me double check, see if that's moved. He is currently. Let's see. Did I scroll past him here? Okay. He's still inside the top 16. He's a wide receiver 15 game in ECR. So what is your confidence level, D bro, in starting Jefferson in the fantasy playoffs this week?
- [63:55]
C
Like a six, Like a five and a half. I. I mean, I. I don't feel great about it. And this comes down to like, Dallas can get after the freaking quarterback, man. Like, they have been pressuring quarterbacks that their pass rush has been good. That could really hurt J.J. mcCarthy in this game and it could really hurt Justin Jefferson. Like, I've got him at wide receiver 18. You're starting him in a lot of different aspects because again, just going back to this and I keep hammering on this, like the entire wide receiver 2 range is just filled with matchups that are God awful. Like, I don't want to play Zay Flowers this week, but you're probably having to. I don't want to play Stefan Diggs this week, but you probably got to. I don't want to play a lot of these different, like Chargers. I don't want to play them. I don't want to play Broncos wide receivers. Like they're just so many landmines at wide receiver that like, Jefferson is in a spot as a wide receiver too, where I don't feel great about it, but there's so many other players this week that I don't feel great about. So he's only going to go so low.
- [64:57]
A
It feels like the best strategy for this week is go back in time and make sure you get a buy this week and don't have to make these decisions pretty much. Fitz, Justin Jefferson, what are you doing?
- [65:06]
B
Don't have much to add to what Dbro said. I'm one spot higher on him at wide receiver 17 but I had a serious debate with myself when I was doing the receiver rankings about Justin Jefferson versus Wandell Robinson and decided to put Justin Jefferson one spot higher and I'm not sure that's the right call. I mean there's right ahead of him.
- [65:26]
C
Fitzy, I'm right with you.
- [65:28]
B
Yeah, there's, there is always a chance that Justin Jefferson reminds us that he's just in freaking Jefferson and has a big game. But we have seen what the floor looks like and it ain't pretty.
- [65:39]
A
Can you imagine making the playoffs despite this slump from Justin Jefferson and then sitting him and then he goes off and then you're eliminated. Like I, I just, I might retire.
- [65:46]
C
From fantasy while you're probably playing him just like Brock Bowers and a lot of other guys this week, each week.
- [65:52]
A
We'Re going to highlight our favorite three and four star props from the prop bet cheat sheet ahead of Sunday Night Football. D bro, what is your favorite prop bet this week?
- [65:58]
C
From the cheat sheet I am going to go over one and a half receptions. It's a three star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet for Javante Williams. He's hit the over and 8 of 13, 8 of his last 13 games. And the other thing that's going to help me here is I don't know if Jake Ferguson plays this week so I think Javante could get a bump in the passing game.
- [66:18]
A
Fitz.
- [66:19]
B
Yeah, this is going to sound crazy but I am taking the over on JJ McCarthy's passing yardage which is 190.5.
- [66:29]
C
Wow, that's a four star cut. This part of the show. Can we cut this and put this out?
- [66:34]
B
It does feel dirty but it's a four star bet on the betting pros player prop bet cheat sheet and the cheat sheet has been red hot lately on quarterbacks with low passing yardage. Props like Shador, like the betting pros prop ed cheat sheet all over Shador's passing yardage and the Cowboys have only given up 87.4 rushing yards a game over their last five games. Dallas run defense has gotten much better with Quinn and Williams. So the Vikings are going to have to throw. They're going to have to throw to keep up probably with the Dallas offense and that could be a disaster. I mean, but I, I do think McCarthy can squeeze up more than 190 passing yards in a game where they're going to get pushed by the Dallas offense.
- [67:17]
C
Yeah, agreed.
- [67:18]
A
Those were our top prop bets for Sunday Night Football this week courtesy of betting pros. You can check out our NFL Prop Bet cheat sheet@bettingpros.com props premium subscribers have access to our five star prop bets which have a 58 win rate and we're up over 85 units this season. Luckily, we've also got a special offer for everyone to unlock a month of Betting Pros Premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today and use promo code FP1 month at checkout to redeem your offer. Last game here guys Monday Night Football Dolphins at Steelers Aaron Rodgers made some genuinely great downfield throws against the Ravens, including the very first play of the game on Sunday. Did the Steelers passing game figure something out or was that just an outlier good day fits?
- [67:56]
B
I think it was an outlier. Rogers had 284 passing yards. It was the first time all year he's thrown for more than 250. He's averaging 197.5 a game and his average depth of throw this season according to Pro Football Reference, 5.9 yards. And the Dolphins really don't give up a lot of big plays in the passing game. They've given up the 12th fewest completions of 20 or more yards. They've only allowed two completions of 40 or more yards this season. So I think if Rogers gets it done this week, it's going to be more dinking and dunking.
- [68:31]
A
What about so obviously you're not going to be like starting Rogers if you can help it like outside of some kind of urgent situation fits. What about DK Metcalf? He's wide receiver 20.
- [68:38]
B
I'm a little lower than consensus on him. 23.
- [68:42]
A
Okay. He's got, I mean he's in this rage that D. Rose been talking about of like you just want like not a lot of guys you feel good about. Debra, what do you think about Rogers and Metcalf?
- [68:52]
C
I don't want to play either one. I got like I've got dk. I'm fading in more than Fitzy is. I got him@water super 27. I don't believe it's real man. Like one one arm Aaron. No, I do. And plus the dolphins high blitz rate. They can get home. Like I don't trust the Steelers. I don't trust the Steelers offensive line. I don't trust Aaron Rodgers. I mean dude like just like Fitz, he talked about like this is only his third game of the season where he had over 8.8yards per attempt. Only the second game where he has surpassed 20 fantasy points. Nothing about this feels real. I I don't want to bet on this at all. I think if anything that tells you more. Sorry, Worm. About the past defense that they were facing.
- [69:30]
B
I gave, I gave the wrong ranking. I've got him at 25, not 23. So I am closer to D, bro.
- [69:36]
A
There were some, some dots in this game like where there was good coverage and he was dropping it. He like, he had multiple really good throws on this game.
- [69:43]
B
Like I, I. Dude still got.
- [69:44]
A
It was a good game. Yeah, it was a good game by him. Yeah. For like I think so he's got it.
- [69:49]
C
He just, he don't want to get hit, right?
- [69:50]
B
Yes, that's exactly it. That's why, that's why you're not seeing the deep completions this year. He does not want to take hits.
- [69:57]
A
Yeah.
- [69:57]
C
Yeah.
- [69:58]
A
He did say that waking up that day, he was like, sometimes you just wake up like when you get old and you're like this is actually a good day. And I feel really good. Kind of out of nowhere. There's no rhyme or rhyme or reason when you get older. Fitz, can you like confirm or deny that?
- [70:10]
B
For me, I don't have any good days anymore, so can't. Can't.
- [70:14]
C
I wake up achy and I wake up achier. That's the two levels of how, that's how the two levels that, you know, I, I always hurting. It just depends on where.
- [70:22]
A
I shouldn't be poking fun considering I've had two different surgeries for injuries.
- [70:25]
C
I was say if any of us you're. You've been the least healthy out of all of us, man. You've under the knife more than the.
- [70:30]
A
Oldest 33 year old here.
- [70:32]
C
Mr. Torn Groin in a, in a beer league.
- [70:35]
A
Okay, that was years ago. Okay. I was still.
- [70:38]
C
It still happened.
- [70:41]
A
All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Bit of a longer of an episode but it's the playoffs right. We want to get through everything here and help you win your leagues. For Debro and Fitz, I'm Ryan. Warmly appreciate you checking us out. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros. Love the night reach for Zinn After.
- [71:39]
C
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A
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- [72:07]
C
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- [72:56]
A
Little Disasters.
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C
Happy Families. Perfect Marriage. What happened?
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A
Social services have been called in.
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B
I've known you for 10 years.
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A
How could you make that call?
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C
These rich families Concealing things seems to come naturally.
- [73:11]
A
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- [73:12]
C
You can't take our children.
- [73:14]
A
And Joe Joyner. Parents can do some terrible things in moments of frustration. Little Disasters. All episodes now streaming on Paramount PCs.
- [73:25]
C
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- [73:57]
A
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