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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 16 (Ep. 1909)
01:11:12
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- [00:35]
A
Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. I am Ryan Warmley, joined as I am every Friday morning by Derek Brown and Pat Fitzmaurice. Fellas, it is the semifinals. We have made it. This is the second straight year where I have gotten several teams to the semifinals. I'm hoping it will not be the third straight year where nearly all of those teams are eliminated by. Of course, what would help is if I'm not facing any of these Rams players in as many of these matchups as possible. What a game. Thursday Night Football. 38 to 37 in overtime, Seahawks over the Rams. It. I feel like it is a bit of a cliche. Every time we get a really good game in prime time in any kind of standalone spot, everybody starts saying game of the year. Game of the year. This. This Debro. Really could have been that.
- [01:21]
B
Yeah, I mean, I tweeted it out, says, is this the game of the year? Because, I mean, you could easily put it in the top three, top five for however you want to order other games this season. And it was fantastic, man. I mean, I missed Thursday night has kind of become like, you know, catching up at the gym nights of the first half. I was there and I was like, I. I'm checking the score the whole time on my phone. I'm like, it doesn't look like I'm missing a ton. I get home and I start watching the second half and I was like, oh, oh, we got a game, baby. And it just took off from there, dude. So, yes, if you're going against Pukinakua, most likely, good luck. We'll see you in 2026. But, you know, you know, I was kind of similar.
- [02:00]
A
I'm visiting a friend of mine for a few days before I go up to visit my family over Christmas. And so, you know, you obviously want to spend time with them. We were playing a little game last Night. And so I kind of had the TV on muted that I was glancing at and trying to pay attention to the first half. And then he and his wife went to bed and so we were like, okay, I'll, I'll sit here and just watch the rest of the game by myself. And then it got really, really good. You know, we got overtime and you know, a lot of big plays, a lot of scoring. So it was, it was very fun. Uh, Fitz, did you survive facing Stafford and or Puka anywhere? Or are you kind of burying your team this morning given what happened last night? If you were facing them anywhere, faced.
- [02:38]
C
Puka in one league, have Puka in another league. Unfortunately, the league where I faced him is a home money league where I'm trying to repeat as champion.
- [02:48]
A
Ugh.
- [02:49]
C
And so I've gone from a pretty decided favorite to a pretty decided underdog. He also had AJ Barner going against me.
- [02:57]
B
Oh, man.
- [02:58]
C
Wasn't. Wasn't doing much of anything and then had that touchdown. So that was a sort of a double dagger. But you knew Puka was going to have a good game. Everyone had him ranked wide receiver one this week. But you thought that maybe the Seattle defense would rise to the occasion since he was primarily the only guy to cover and you didn't have to worry maybe all that much against about Kanata Mumfield and Xavier Smith and company. But like, where was the coverage on that overtime touchdown? Like there was no one around Puka. That was just a blown coverage.
- [03:32]
A
When I was watching that for a half second I was like that, that can't be Puka, right? They wouldn't possibly let him be so wide open and somehow it was, yeah.
- [03:42]
C
Good on Seattle though, winning that game on a night where Darnold didn't really have his A game and where the defense didn't play especially well. But man, we got a Kenneth Walker revival, which was pretty fun to see. And yeah, I mean just Seattle did enough and the resilience they showed in bouncing back from a 16 point deficit with half a quarter to go. And I forget who said it, but one of the Seattle players said the Rams were doing a lot of smack talking when they had that 16 point lead halfway through the fourth quarter and man, Seattle overcame it. So hats off to the Seahawks.
- [04:21]
A
Outside of the fact that that game was at home, or I'll just say even considering the fact that that game was at home, I thought that was one of the most impressive performances by any team this season. Seattle, like the resiliency, like you said, Fitz, I think it's spot on for them to win that game. Given the stakes going on, how late we are in the season, the fact that Darnold wasn't having one of those games where he's seeing into the matrix and the fact that, you know, Stafford and Puka kind of were to overcome all that and put themselves in position to control their destiny for the one seed I thought was really awesome. By the way, just to read the stat line. Stafford, 457 yards and three touchdowns. Puka, 12 catches, 225 yards and two touchdowns. You know, you mentioned Kenneth Walker, 100 yards and a touchdown. Plus he had the long catch early. You know, JSN got the touchdown in overtime to kind of save it. Not that he was having a terrible day, but to give us like a more JSN type stat line finish with eight catches, 96 yards and a touchdown. Any other quick thoughts on this game? Deeper? I mean, I know there's a lot going on, but we have a lot of games to get to so we don't have to spend too much time on it.
- [05:17]
B
Yeah, I'll issue one quick psa. I, I gave a lot of pro Colby Parkinson takes walking into the week. So if you started in based off my advice, I'm sorry, like I talk and say like I didn't see them cutting his route share and then he dropped a bunch of big catches during the game. And then dude, the other thing is like, I mean, come on, it feels like kind of like the dagger in the heart of everybody that believed in Kenneth Walker all year. And then like it's week 16 and you're like, okay, now, now we get the Kenneth Walker usage in the big blow up game. All right, well he's probably on benches or teams that are not in the playoffs. It did, you know, it. It's good to see for the talent that we always own has been there but also a little bit painful.
- [06:00]
A
Yeah. By the way, dbro, I think anybody who is hurt by the Parkinson advice by you, hopefully they have Puka on all their teams because of you and therefore made up for it. Yeah. But also fits that Barner thing killed me too. I was facing him in a league in the whole game. I'm like this is great. It's basically a zero. Don't have to worry about it. And then come on like the move.
- [06:24]
C
Inside and I Debra, I think the process was fine with Colby Parkinson. I mean they didn't have Devonte Adams. So you figured. And as it was, Parkinson had scored six touchdowns in his previous six games. You figured he had the enhanced target outlook. It just didn't work out. But I think the process was okay. And ranking him highly and starting him, if you started him, you shouldn't feel bad about it. Like it wasn't the wrong move. It just didn't work out. Thanks.
- [06:49]
A
Speaking of rankings, all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found@fantasyprose.com rankings like I said, we are into the semifinals here, so be sure to check those consensus rankings before you finalize your lineups here for the rest of the weekend. And if you are facing, you know, Puka or Stafford or whoever, you know, maybe look for some of the higher upside options as denoted by some of the matchup information on that page because you probably need to swing for the fences. Let's go to the first game on the Saturday slate. We have Saturday games here guys. First game up Eagles at Commanders I kind of phrase this first question just says is Bill back Jakori Crosby? Merritt had a very strong week last week, but it appears that Chris Rodriguez, given the practice stuff this week, will be back on the field. So originally the question was kind of where are you ranking Jecori Crosby Merit this week? You can kind of frame it to how are you ranking these guys against each other? Are you willing to start either of them here in the fantasy semifinals? Fitz, I'll start with you on this one, Bill, and also Chris Rodriguez. What are you doing here?
- [07:47]
C
I'm taking the coward's way out and ranking them back to back at 42 for Rodriguez and 43 for Jakori Crosby merit. I just with one guy you could maybe lean into that if the matchup was okay. And last week we got a pretty good matchup for JCM going against the Giants, who might just have the worst run defense in the league, but this week against the Eagles, and I know the Eagles run defense has been sort of hot and cold and it largely depends on the health of Jalen Carter and yeah, but I just don't want to play either guy when I think both are probably capped at about 12 carries and Rodriguez doesn't catch passes and Bill doesn't really either and doesn't get the goal line work. So it's just not really a matchup I want to lean into in ECR.
- [08:35]
A
Debro Rodriguez is RB43. Jacori Krasky Merit is RB47. So they are very close to each other. They are not the cowardly back to back that Fitz has given us, but they are in a similar range. Of course. What do you think D, bro?
- [08:49]
B
Yeah. I mean, I've got Rodriguez at 37 and. And Bill at 43. I mean, we're all kind of like sniffing in the same area code here, like RB4s and it's like, who gets the touchdown? I think Rodriguez coming back, practicing a full. I think he takes the lead back, roll back over, like with the red zone work. And to me it's. You're kind of splitting the difference and saying, okay, who gets the touchdown? If either one of them gets the touchdown. I think. And what I'm saying in my ranking is I think if anybody gets a touchdown, it's probably Rodriguez. But low end, like not desperation, but close to a type of flex play. And to fit this point, like just the matchup of the Eagles, like since week 11, like they've given up the 8th most rushing yards per game, 3rd highest explosive run rate. So like the matchup is there, but if the Eagles defense can do what they can do versus the freaking Commanders, like both these guys could just get game scripted out and it could be Jeremy Nichols out there a ton.
- [09:39]
A
Yeah, I was going to bring up that the Eagles matchup seems maybe a little bit better than it had been earlier in the year. But when you. When you're talking about the offense that you're talking about with the Commanders right now, and you know, now that there's potential for a bit of a split backfield that you know best to get away from it if you can, but maybe in a pinch, you know, leaning. Leaning Rodriguez here, given the consensus rankings and where you guys have them. Let. Let's go to another game here on Saturday. The other game on Saturday, packers at Bears and in their division rivalry. Fitz, are you excited for this one?
- [10:13]
C
It's hard to get excited, man. I think the packers season basically went up in smoke with the. The injuries last week. You know, Micah Parsons, Zach Tom. Luckily, Christian Watson might play in this one. Apparently his injury wasn't that serious. But I'm always. It's always fun to have a Packers Bears game with me here behind enemy lines in Illinois. And I have a lot of Bears fan friends, so. Yeah, and it's a. It's a close spread. I think either team could win this game, so it'll be a fun rematch.
- [10:47]
A
I've tried to hype you up as a friend, but yeah, I mean, the Parsons especially is just like so deflating to get to this point in the season and then have that happen, like given how strong the team had looked for most of the year. So, I mean, these two teams did just face off in week 14. Fits. And the kind of the way I phrased the question here and the sheet is what kinds of differences do you expect in the rematch? Obviously the lack of Parsons will be a very big deal for when the the Bears are, you know, offenses on the field. Is that kind of the first place your mind goes when thinking about what will look different this time around or does it go elsewhere?
- [11:18]
C
Not necessarily. I mean, you would think that maybe the Bears could be a little pass heavier without Micah Parsons, but like they were pretty balanced in Bears, Packers 1. And maybe the Bears are even run heavier this time because they had more success, I think with the run in that game than they had with the pass. Especially late in that game. They had a long like 17 play drive where they just drove it down the packers throat running the ball and you know, made it a really close game at the end. Maybe they try to do that again since they're shorthanded a wide receiver with Roma Dunes and Luther Burden both out. And I think Green Bay basically runs back the same game plan. They were balanced because, you know, you can run a little bit on the Bears, you can pass on the Bears. Like this is not really a defensive matchup. To be fair. Josh Jacobs had 20 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown the first time around. I would expect maybe a similar stat line this time. And you know, I think Jordan Love can continue to spread the ball around and have a decent day. I just. It's hard to zero in on any one or two packers pass catchers in this game. Like if Watson is playing, you like the big play potential. But you know, now you have to be a little bit nervous about the risk of an aggravation of his injury. And we were just kind of reminded that he's been kind of frail throughout his career.
- [12:41]
A
DBRA on the Bears offense side of things, you know, in this first matchup a couple weeks ago, Swift and Menung guys basically split carries. 13 attempts for Swift, 14 from men on guy, 63 yards for Swift, 57 for middle guy. So like a very, very similar output from the two of them in that matchup. And you know, Luther Burden leading the team in targets in that game with just six though, is a lot of spreading the ball around. You know, Colson Loveland had five to the second most on the team. Obviously no Burden or Dunes A this week. What are your expectations for this rematch? That's just such a quick turnaround from the last time these two teams faced.
- [13:15]
B
Yeah, I mean, right now I'm kind of struggling what to do with Christian Watson. I do think he plays but the, the thing with the, the packers wide receiver room, it's comes down to route shares and now you're talking about Watson. If he does play in this game, what's his route share look like? Because they're going to have golden as well. Dobbs is going to play. Gene Reed is back. So it's like, I mean out of all these packers wide receivers, I don't know what to do with Watson, like ranking him right now. Like right now I've got him at wide receiver 37. Just because even if he is a unlimited route share guy, like he can get there on one or two deep targets from Jordan Love. But like Jaden Reed, I feel great about in this game. Like I think he has a fantastic matchup. Like the Bears, you look at, they've been bleeding out production in the slots. I think if like we're looking, going back into the wayback machine and looking at how this game played out last time, if we're looking at any packers pass catcher to have a big game actually kind of leading in the direction of Jaden Reed and not in the direction of Christian Watson just because it's all kind of shrouded about how healthy he is, how much does he play and what does that look like. But I mean, dude, since week 10, Chicago's given up the ninth most receiving yards and the ninth highest PPR points to point points per target to opposing slot wide receivers. So feel good about Reed with Chicago side. I mean it's nice that we get the consolidation of targets probably like with Chicago with Rome out, Luther Burden out. But again, still, how do you feel like okay, Parsons being out, that's going to affect the pass rush secondary still pretty good. And I know that like a lot of past defenses, it's a house of cards.
- [14:44]
A
It's.
- [14:45]
B
Is it coverage? Is a pass rush? Is the, the. I mean, is the coverage helped out by the pass rush and that big key for the Packers? Go ahead, Fitzy.
- [14:55]
C
I was just going to say, can I give you a quick one question quiz?
- [14:59]
B
Yeah.
- [15:00]
C
Reed for 40 career games for Jaden Reed, including playoff games, how many games out of the 40 do you think Jaden Reid has had more than six targets?
- [15:10]
B
Oh, she's out of 44.
- [15:15]
C
Yeah, it's, it's more than that. It's seven.
- [15:17]
B
Okay.
- [15:17]
C
It's.
- [15:18]
B
I mean we're living in the same area code. We're still not double digits, man. So.
- [15:21]
C
Yeah, that's, that's not A lot. That's my concern. I mean he is still only going to play in two receiver sets and you would think with the way Jaden Reed operates, being the, the slot guy, kind of a short area receiver, that he would have higher target counts and he just doesn't. That's my concern with him.
- [15:38]
A
So I was just quickly looking Fitz at his game log when he asked that question. I think the other point to, to that too is that six of those seven I believe I just look, we're 20, 23. Exactly years. Yes. Just very quickly head to head.
- [15:53]
B
Don't.
- [15:53]
A
We don't have time to do like a deep dive. But they're ranked back to back in ecr. DJ Moore or Jaden Reed this week? Dbra Jane Reed fits.
- [16:02]
C
Oh it's more for me like a ten spot gap between the two of them.
- [16:06]
A
Okay.
- [16:07]
B
I have more faith in Jordan. Love to play well in this game then I do Caleb Williams too. That, that's, that's the difference for me.
- [16:13]
A
Okay, let's go to the Sunday early slate. Buccaneers at Panthers. How are you guys ranking? Speaking of ranking receivers against each other, how are you ranking the three Bucks receivers plus Tet McMillan one through four in this game?
- [16:26]
B
Dbro Evans is the clear and not even close like top guy here. Igbuka is number two, Tets three for me, Godwin and I'm going to put Godwin and honestly Jalen Coker in the same bucket behind everybody else. Because if you look at, I mean dude, Mike Evans stepped back in. He was the clear alpha immediately in his first game back and I don't think that changes. It's a good matchup. Ibuka's number two for me because again looking at the target pecking order because that was the first game the entire freaking season we have had Evans, Godwin and Ibuka all on the, all on the field together. And you saw it play out man. Like Igbuka was second on the team in target Cherry at a 23.8% first read share and I put him against or at least ahead of Tet because just the volatility of Bryce Young. Which version of Bryce Young? Like it's a good matchup. Okay, we said that with the 49ers and it's like what version of Bryce Young do we get in this game? And that bleeds over to Ted Romy Millen. It's like does he get two targets and 40 or 50 yards and you're hoping for a touchdown or does Ted Roman McMillan get fed and he should vault above? IGMEKA Buka. It's a dice roll, man. I don't know because I don't know what version of Bryce Young we get this week.
- [17:39]
A
It's interesting because consensus does go against. I mean, obviously Evans is. Is the number one of these four in consensus debro, but the ECR has Tedro McMillan at wide receiver 17 and Igbuka down at wide receiver 29. So it not. It doesn't just have McMillan higher than Ibuka. It hasn't consistent like, like higher by a wide margin. Fitz, how do you see it? Are you more in line with ECR or with what Deborah is laying down?
- [18:02]
C
I'm even more extreme on the split between McMillan and a Buga than ECR is. So I've got Evans, wide receiver 11, Tetaroa McMillan, wide receiver 15, Ameka Buca, wide receiver 31, Godwin, wide receiver 32. And so, I mean, it was just, I think the second time last week since like week five that Ameca Bucha has had double digit PPR points and he just barely got there like 10.4. Um, but I don't necessarily think Mike Evans drains a book as value because the first three weeks of the season, Ibuka had three pretty strong games. I think he scored a couple of touchdowns. That was while Evans was still healthy. Evans comes back a book has like his most efficient game in a yards per target basis in like two months, 9.1. So maybe there's something about Evan's presence that does give a book a lift. That's why I'm basically not dropping him from where I would have had him if Mike Evans were still out. But I just, I mean, I like McMillan a lot more because he's clearly the number one guy. And even though the Panthers do try to hide Bryce Young, and with good reason, McMillan is still clearly, even though he really wasn't last week, but he's the number one receiver. And I mean, we just saw Kirk Cousins dice up this Buccaneers secondary without Drake London, so I mean, I. I have to feel pretty bullish about Tel McMillan this week.
- [19:34]
B
Well, Kirk Cousins looks like a Hall of Famer every time he play. He plays the Bucks recently.
- [19:38]
A
Yeah.
- [19:38]
B
So.
- [19:39]
C
And Thursday night.
- [19:41]
A
Yeah, that's fair.
- [19:42]
B
That's fair.
- [19:43]
A
Fitz, quickly, what do you think about Coker? Cause DBRA mentioned him too. I didn't include him in the original question. Is he close to that back end of the group?
- [19:50]
C
Yeah, I mean, I, I like Coker too. I've got him, but I've got him down at like wide receiver 49. Maybe that's a little too low, but he's in like the Romeo Dobbs, Darius Slayton, K Shaan, Booty Neighborhood Ibuka and.
- [20:05]
A
Godwin, for what it's worth in ECR are also back to back Fitz. They're not exactly the spot you have them. They're off by one, but Ibuka is at 29 and Godwin at 30. So they are also, you know, right there together the way you have them. So DBRO is the one who's really more going along the lines of give against consensus here. Fitz is closer to what is there. They're not spot on. All right, today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Are you out of your fantasy football playoffs but still want to get in on the Week 16 action? Head over to Hard Rock Bet. They just launched a brand new for you page, making it easy to bet on your favorite teams, players and leagues in just a few simple taps. Open the app, go to the for you page, find a bet you like and then bam. Your bet is placed just in time to get back to wrapping presents and enjoy your favorite Christmas movie. Sign up today and bet $5 on any game. If it wins, you also score $150 in bonus bets, a winning bet plus an extra $150 to bet with. Now that is spreading holiday cheer. Plus, Hard Rock Bet fills your stockings with new promos daily. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet apple and make your first deposit payable and bonus bets.
- [21:16]
B
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- [24:08]
C
I think it's too high. Yes, the Bills have a bad run defense, but these last two weeks where he's been under two yards per carry, it's been what the Titans and the Bears. Those are not great run defenses either. And this isn't just a two week slump for Quintean Judkins. Since week six, Judkins has averaged 50.9 rushing yards a game, 3.1 yards per carry and right now the Browns offensive line is just really beaten up. So Cleveland might not be able to take advantage of this good matchup. Center Ethan Pock out for the season. I think he tore his Achilles tackle Jack Conklin, concussion. Guards Wyatt Teller and Zach Zinter both questionable. I think Tevin Jenkins is questionable too. It's just a mess with the Browns offensive line, so I don't know how well they're going to be able to run the ball even against a shaky run defense.
- [25:01]
A
With the volume he's getting dbro, it feels hard to like, bury him in the rankings. But yeah, to Fitz's point, the slump is prolonged. It's like the last two weeks have almost kind of come to a head in terms of the lack of efficiency. But it has been a long time. And in that stretch that Fitz mentioned since week six, he's only scored touchdowns in two of those games. Now he has five touchdowns because he had three and two respectively in those two games. But it's only happened in the two games where it's happened. The other games it's just been 0000 with this lack of efficiency, it's really just been volume only.
- [25:33]
B
Yeah, I mean, I don't disagree with anything. Fitz, Fitz. Where do you have him ranked this week? Because it's like 21. Okay, so that's exactly. We're in line, we're hand holding. That's exactly where I'm at. Like, I just, because of so many matchups and crappy backfields and stuff like that. Like, it's like I can, I, I don't feel good about Judkins this week, but it's like to the point of everybody here, I can only push him so far down the rankings because of what running back looks like this week. So I, I agree with all the points. Like, I, I, I think he's too high in ecr but again, like, how far could you push him down? The matchup is good, but can he take advantage of it with the offensive line as well as Shador Facing this past defense, are they going to move the ball consistently? Are they going to get into the red zone? Heck, multiple times. I'm not going to like, you know, just totally shade him and say, are they going to get in there at all? Like, I think they probably, you know, have a red zone trip or two. But does Judkins walk away with a touchdown or is it just feel Gold City? So, like, it's tough, man. I think just running back in general is just really tough in fantasy this week.
- [26:35]
A
One of the things that we talked about earlier in the week with Erickson and myself is on Judkins specifically in this matchup. The Bills always put a real strong emphasis on stopping the tight end and with how much the Browns have been throwing to Harold Fan and if that is taken away at all by Buffalo, then maybe an opportunity for more checkdowns to Judkins just because what else Is shoot we're going to be able to do in this game. I don't know. It's just something we talked about a little. Does that feel like it rings like possibly true for you guys at all or.
- [27:04]
B
No, I, I mean, Judkins is just not a prolific pass catcher. Like I would say like the injuries in the backfield. You know, Samson and Jerome Ford and what have you. Like all injuries and stuff. Like in theory, yes. But I just one, I don't know if Sugar is going to check down the ball too much and two, it's not like, you know, his calling card is as a pass catcher either.
- [27:29]
A
Yeah. By the way, when I made this show sheet, which is a little earlier in the week than usual, he was RB18. Rather than moving down closer to you guys, he moved up. He's actually RB17 right now. So hang on in the other direction in consensus. All right, let's go to the next game here. Chargers at Cowboys. Second highest game total of the week up at 50 points. Give me one player each that you most strongly disagree with. Consensus on. Dee, bro, I'll start with you.
- [27:57]
B
I'm just going to go back to the Dallas Goddard well here tight ends versus the Chargers man like Jake Ferguson is getting the Dallas Goddard treatment of that week. He's right now, or at least when I was putting this together, he was tight end 16 in ECR. It's not a good matchup for the outside wide receivers. It's not a good matchup for them or George Pickens. Coverage wise. I think it's a good, really good bounce back spot for Jake Ferguson. I have him at tight end 10 for the week and since week 10 the Bolts have given up the 5th most yards per target and the 13th most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Jake Ferguson's ranking in ECR is wrong.
- [28:36]
A
He is still 16. Yeah. Any CR here that's wrong. Fitz, what do you think about your boy Jake Ferguson?
- [28:44]
C
I am, I think I'm a little above consensus on him. Yeah, I mean it's, it's probably an easier matchup for Ferguson than it is for some of the other guys. Like the Chargers are really hard team to pass on. Actually I'm right in line with them with ECR as it turns out. Wide or 15.
- [29:05]
A
Basically in line, but yeah, a spot ahead. Who's the player that you are disagreeing with fits this week?
- [29:11]
C
Oh, it's Justin Herb. I'm six spots below consensus.
- [29:15]
B
Where do you have him at, Pitzy?
- [29:17]
C
I've got him down in quarterback two range. I have him at QB17.
- [29:28]
B
Right there.
- [29:29]
C
Yeah, I agree with 11 is just really hard to justify that. I know the matchup against Dallas is appealing, and that's what people are looking at when they're ranking him as a QB one, but Justin Herbert's offensive line is pretty much incapable of. Of protecting him. It's like five traffic cones in front of Justin Herbert right now, and the Chargers are starting to become run heavier as a result. So in the the five games the Chargers have played since Joe Alt went on injured reserve, Justin Herbert has averaged 160.2 passing yards and one touchdown pass a game. And he hasn't thrown for more than 220 yards in any game over that stretch. I just. I. I don't know if the ceiling is very high for Herbert even in a favorable matchup.
- [30:14]
A
So the names, like, directly behind him in consensus are Stroud, Love, Dart Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence. Stafford was behind him. Obviously that'll be wrong. Shuck, Caleb, those first several names, Fitz, they're all ahead of him.
- [30:28]
C
Yeah, I mean, I had Stafford ranked higher than him. I've got C.J. stroud and Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love ahead of him. I've got Tyler Shuck one spot ahead of Justin Herbert.
- [30:42]
B
I have J.J. mcCarthy ahead of him, too. So.
- [30:46]
A
Okay. Yeah, yeah. McCarthy's at 20th.
- [30:48]
C
McCarthy one spot behind. I can't show that much disrespect to Justin Herbert.
- [30:54]
A
Do you guys both have Lawrence ahead of Herbert coming off his amazing game?
- [30:58]
B
No. No, I don't. And I have Caleb right behind him, so, you know, that's kind of where I'm at.
- [31:03]
A
Okay. Yeah. Lawrence obviously in Denver, so not an easy spot for him. And then Caleb, we already talked about a bit that. That packers game, let's go to jets at Saints, and I want to ask, with Devin Neal out, how are you guys approaching the Saints backfield? The. The player that Erickson pointed to earlier in the week was Audrey Estimate. He and I were big fans of Estimate last year. And, you know, like. Like when he came out in of the draft, into the NFL and kept holding on hope, and then it kind of given up, and he's got some excitement for him now. Is Estimate the direction you're going, Fitz? Is it anybody else in this backfield? What are you doing here with no Neil?
- [31:40]
C
Well, there is someone else. It's Debro and my guy Evan hall.
- [31:45]
A
Who I asked you first because I knew DBRA was gonna go there. So I was like, let's see if Fitz is going the same way or not.
- [31:51]
C
Yeah, and so right now I, I do have Estimate ranked higher. I've got estimated 34 and Hall 47. Like you would think that this would be a pretty clear cut division of labor because Estimate sort of has this early down skill set. Didn't catch a lot of passes when he was in college at Notre Dame. Hall had like 56 catches in his final year at Northwestern. He does have a third down skill set. Estimate is the early down thumper between the tackles. Guy hall is the third down back. But it didn't really work out that way. Last week after they left, hall actually had one more carry than estimate had. It was only four to three. Hull didn't have any targets and estimate had three catches for 39 yards. So that was a little confounding. I don't know what we're going to see and now I'm really fascinated to see it. But I do want to note it is exactly 10 years since Tim Hightower went berserk for the Saints in the fantasy playoffs. Worm, you might not remember this. You were only like nine at the time. I remember Hightower in like the final three games, the fantasy playoffs. He had over 300 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns and carried a lot of people to the fantasy playoffs. And this was a guy who like the Saints had cut and picked back up like two times during the season. Re signed him in November and all of a sudden he winds up being kind of a league winner for people at the end. So could we something like that with Audrick Estimate or Evan Hall.
- [33:28]
A
I do remember that I was 23 at the time, not 9. Thank you very much. Appreciate you d aging me a bit. I, I do remember Tim Hightower. I, yeah, I, I, I think, I think it's a good point on Hull, like what it looked like in the game after Neil went out. I'll, Deborah, I'll let you go first. I mean obviously you're, you had, you were a big hall guy in the draft. I assume that's the direction you're going here.
- [33:54]
B
I mean I'm actually just because the usage leaning in the direction of estimate. Like I'm pretty much in line with Fitzy right now. Like I've got.
- [34:01]
A
So you're also a coward.
- [34:03]
B
I, I'm not a coward. I just, I'm going with the usage, man.
- [34:06]
A
You gotta have conviction in your guy D bro.
- [34:08]
B
I wait, dude, I, I'd love Evan Hall. I think like he's been disrespected and should get the opportunity, but that's not what we saw last week and it was to 50's point. Audrey estimate. Yeah, he had the pass down role like he played 52 of the snaps aft in the second half of last week. He had a 46 RO and Evan Hull was the goal line back. He got the two red zone carries last week.
- [34:30]
C
So it's like weird.
- [34:31]
B
We're living in the upside down. The guy that I thought was gonna be the passing down back was not and the guy that I thought should be the red zone back was not. So I mean for me it's just going with the volume and, and I mean could we be all wrong about this? And Evan hall leads the backfield this week. I, I would love to see that. But considering the usage last week, I do shade in the direction of estimate. And I mean with this matchup man like he could easily be an RB2 this week if he gets 12 to 15 touches. They, they could treat estimate as the workhorse. We, we, we just don't know. Just looking at the usage last week. So like depending on if you have like estimate and you're looking at him versus like other guys in split backfields like like even like a Tony Pollard or a Kyle Menon guy and stuff and you need absolute upside. I mean I'm probably going to tell you to start estimate because there is a run out in this where he gets 15 to 17 touches and in this matchup he scores a Touchdown. He's an RB2 this week. So like honestly as gross as it is to say in week 16 of the year 20, 20, 20, 2025. Audric estimate might be an RB2 in fantasy, like that's, it's wild.
- [35:41]
C
You might have missed that. Tony Pollard went into the phone booth and came out as Earl Campbell.
- [35:49]
B
He took the superhero serum.
- [35:52]
C
Fitzy Erickson mentioned this yesterday. Tony Pollard has a quarter million dollar incentive if he gets to 1100 rushing yards and he only needs like 200 and it's like 257 yards to do it in his last three games. And man, he has looked like a man on a mission the lot. He's averaging almost 7 yards of carry over the last two weeks after being such a zilch earlier in the season.
- [36:14]
B
That's fair.
- [36:15]
C
That's fair.
- [36:15]
A
For what it's worth on the rankings estimate RB 37 in ECR. Evan Hall RB 56. So way it's too low down there. I knew, I knew you guys especially.
- [36:28]
C
I remember excitedly like DBRO and I were excitedly texting each other after Evan hall ran like a 4, 4 something at the combine we were all giddy.
- [36:36]
B
About, yeah dude, and I still like the skill set. I think the kid can play. Just hadn't worked out.
- [36:43]
A
You can let Autopilot manage your fantasy football lineup automatically so you never have to worry about last minute changes, auto swap inactive players and ensure your lineup is always optimized even when you can't be online. Take control with the flexibility to appro lineup changes via email or let Autopilot handle everything. Stay ahead with my Playbook. Autopilot available now for Fantasy Pros Premium subscribers@fantasyprose.com MyPlaybook or on the Fantasy Pros app. Next game here guys. Vikings at Giant Back to back top 10 quarterback weeks for JJ McCarthy and yet Justin Jefferson has a combined four catches for 33 yards across those two games. Is this the week those two finally get on the same page?
- [37:26]
B
Debra yes, and context for everybody. He could have easily and you can argue should have had two touchdowns last week. One of them got called back because of an illegal formation. Another one went straight through his hands. So this easily could have turned out very differently for Justin Jefferson last week. So targets are there. I've got Justin Jefferson as wide receiver 16. At this point, we're going down with the Titanic. If this ain't the week, then there is no week that is the week. So I'm, I'm riding it back with Justin Jefferson. McCarthy's playing better and for everybody in their narratives, like, oh, McCarthy only looks good because he's playing bad. Past defenses. Have you seen the Giants past defense? What do you think they are? So if McCarthy's only good versus bad pass defenses, let's saddle up and ride again this week. Like it's still okay if we want to go with the narrative, it still holds true this week then.
- [38:21]
A
Sorry, did you say, where are you ranking Jefferson wide receiver 16. 16. Okay. He's 18 in ECR fifths.
- [38:29]
C
I'm at 21. I. I am probably gonna have to come up on him a little bit, but I think the real key question here, Worm, is would a Justin Jefferson breakout game help anyone at this point? Like, are there any Justin Jefferson stakeholders still alive in the playoffs?
- [38:45]
A
I actually am in a league that we are the MFL league that we're the three of us are in. I am alive and I have Justin Jefferson.
- [38:53]
B
Do you realize this is the Kenneth Walker corollary, right? Like, well, the reason has a breakout game. We get the Justin Jefferson game all in one week. For everybody that it's out of the playoffs to say, see, I Told you.
- [39:06]
A
The reason I'm alive in that league by the way is, is because I only have one healthy quarterback left and it is super flex. But it was Trevor Lawrence so he like single handedly took me passed last week and I'm sure is going to let me down this week even when Jefferson finally takes a step forward.
- [39:21]
C
So yeah, yeah, it's just, and it's funny, I'm just like watching Justin Jefferson and how, you know, he lets that ball go. Is there something about the way J.J. mcCarthy throws? Does he not throw a very catchable ball? I'm just like, I'm running out of excuses to make for Justin Jefferson at this point. It's just, it's frustrating to watch him not show up. And then there are the games. Even when JJ McCarthy is playing reasonably well and it's Jordan Addison and Jalen Naylor having the big games. It's just if I was just what.
- [39:57]
A
If I was just looking at the box who are not watching the games, I would be like, I wonder if he's like hiding like a, you know, an injury or something that we'll hear about. But it doesn't really look like that. Like it just, they just look not on the same page. Like actually watching the games he seems like Justin Jefferson, he's just not catching the ball or and then the times that he is open are the times that JJ overthrows him and it's just, it just is really odd.
- [40:19]
B
It is very fan. Yeah.
- [40:21]
C
It's not like Jefferson has gotten A plus quarterbacking throughout his career and yet coming into the season he was averaging like he had a career average of something like 2.28 yards per route run which even like was way better than Jamar Chase and CD Lamb. Like the guy is insanely good and it's just like not falling into place this year and it's so frustrating.
- [40:45]
A
I mean coming into this season I think there's a pretty strong argument that he was, I mean I don't think many people would disagree if you said he was one of the three best non quarterbacks in the entire league. And then we, we're getting this even when JJ McCarthy is producing these last couple of weeks. So we'll see what happens this week. I am going back to the. Well in the league where I'm still alive with him. I will certainly be starting him. So we'll see if that ends up finally panning out or not. Let's go to Chiefs at Titans. Obviously like you know the biggest story of the week. Patrick Mahomes tearing His ACL obviously out for the season. Chiefs have already been eliminated from the playoffs. Question marks about what it'll look like start of next season for Mahomes. But for right now, for, you know, managers who have relied on some of these Chiefs players to get them to this point in the season, how significantly are you downgrading those players in your rankings for their first game? Without Mahomes? It's really like Rice and Kelsey are the big two. And I guess you could maybe say, like Kareem Hunt if you were, you know, needy at running back. Some of those other receivers, like, I think we likely were not going to be looking to anyway, even with Mahomes, so. So those are kind of the two big ones. Although if you want to hit on one of those other names, please definitely feel free. Fitz, I'll start with you. How are you downgrading this offense in general without Mahomes?
- [42:00]
C
Well, as of now, I'm actually. I've moved Travis Kelsey up because I'm not ranking Rasheed Rice yet. Like, he didn't come back to practice yet. He's still in the concussion protocol. Right. So I don't know what his chances of playing are this week, but typically guys who have sustained a concussion one Sunday usually don't play the next Sunday if they've had a concussion. Not out of the question that he could, but more often than not, guys have sat the following week. So I've got Kelsey at tight end four. I think Gardner Minshew is going to lean on him pretty heavily. And Gardner Minshew is at least competent. We've seen that. I don't want to overstate how good Gardner Minshew is, but he's a competent distributor of the football. I don't think you, like, totally dock the pass catchers who have to play with Gardner Minshew. And I've got Xavier Worthy. Oh, and by the way, Taekwond Thornton, I think, has a concussion, too, so it might kind of consolidate targets with Kelsey and Xavier Worthy. I've still only got worthy ranked wide receiver 42. I might have to move him up a little bit. And yeah, if.
- [43:07]
A
If Rice doesn't play, I feel like Worthy has to be higher than that just because there's nobody else.
- [43:11]
C
Right, right, right. And I've. I've. There's juju. That's.
- [43:19]
A
That's about everybody else that I care about, I should say.
- [43:21]
C
Yeah. And the running backs are kind of confusing here because we saw a little spike in usage for Isaiah Pacheco last week. Right now I've got Hunt like running back 35 and Pacheco running back 37. So we like the matchup against the Titans. It's just hard to tell how the work is going to be divided.
- [43:38]
A
Well, quickly fits. Where are you ranking Minshew himself?
- [43:42]
C
I've got him because like I, I.
- [43:44]
A
I had Mahomes in a super flex. Like I had to pick up Minshew. There was nobody else available and I'm sure other people are in that same boat where they picked him up. So I don't really have a choice of starting him. But like what are your expectations for Minshew like himself in terms of fantasy production?
- [43:56]
C
I have him quarterback 25 items sandwiched between Aaron Rodgers one spot behind Rodgers and one spot ahead of Sam Darnold, whose matchup I did not care for.
- [44:08]
A
Yeah, Debra, what do you think about this offense in general?
- [44:12]
B
So I have, I've mentioned quarterback 26. I've got him behind, I've got him one actually one spot ahead of old man Rivers. So the way that I'm projecting this offense this week, I'm with Fitzy. Like I'm not dropping Travis Kelsey. I'm ranking this right now as of recording this as Rashid Rice is going to be out and looking at that. And and the reason I want to bring this up first is that I think that I've got Xavier worthy a wide receiver 19 and I want to explain that very quickly. I think with Rice out, we're going to see Xavier Worthy go back into the role that everybody salivated over in the off season and that is the Rasheed Rice role. Like we've already seen him operate in that role with Rasheed Rice out. So I think he gets right back in that role. The fact that there are other injuries around it so this probably the target tree like Minshew is going to lean heavily on Worthy and Travis Kelsey this week. I, I look, I think Xavier Worthy might be on waiver wires in some leagues and some people aren't going to make the connection of if Rasheed Rice is out Worthy going back into the role we saw him operate last year to close the season and being as a strong wide receiver too. And I'm like bro, like pick him up, start him. Like I think he is a wide receiver too this week and the matchup is fantastic and just on the the Chiefs backfield real fast. I don't want to start either one of those guys and I think the one thing that's kind of gone under the radar is with Jeffrey Simmons back sweat Back. This run defense has gotten really good since week 11. Tennessee has allowed the six fewest rushing arts per game and the fourth lowest explosive run rate. I don't want to start any Casey backs, period.
- [45:48]
A
Fitz, you said that you like might have to move up Worthy a bit. Obviously maybe not all the way up to why does he were 19. What do you think about Diva say.
- [45:56]
C
In that I'm moving him up as we speak to wide receiver 36.
- [46:00]
A
Okay.
- [46:01]
C
And I. I might not be done moving him up.
- [46:04]
A
Yeah. Yeah. I mean if Rice is out, I think it's a really, it's a really good point. Good case.
- [46:09]
C
I mean that's exactly it. Like Xavier Worthy cooked down the stretch last year. He was fantastic and he did it basically in that Rasheed Rice role. And you know, I thought he'd be able to do it in a more conventional outside receiver role this year and it hasn't really happened. But going back to that and I know it's with Gardner Minshew, not Patrick Mahomes. But still, but still, if you're going.
- [46:31]
B
To make things easier for Minshew Minshew easy design targets. Let him be your your your running through the air.
- [46:39]
C
Yep.
- [46:40]
A
I think I could be convinced to get him up into like the mid-20s. I think inside the top 20. I will be just wrong if that happens because I don't think I could get all the way there.
- [46:49]
B
But to me it's, it's also the state of wide receiver this week. Like all these wide receiver twos. Like do I feel better about Jacoby Myers maybe going up against Patrick Certain? No. Do I feel better about Jalen Waddle going up against DJ Turner?
- [47:01]
C
No.
- [47:02]
B
Do I feel better about Zay Flowers going up against freaking Christian Gonzalez? No. Okay, well then wheels up are worthy.
- [47:11]
A
Let's go to the next game here. Bengals at Dolphins. The Bengals just got shut out at home by an improved but still flawed Ravens defense. So what is your concern level for this offense for fantasy managers this next week following up the bagel against the Dolphins D. RO Not a ton.
- [47:28]
B
I mean like I understand I could go down like the Joe Burrow and how motivated and all that kind of stuff for all like, like I'm not like if they're out there, they're going to give it their all and they're going to play well. I think man, I think if like if anything you can create a better bounce back narrative for this offense. Like Jamar Chase is going to get a crap ton of targets. I don't know if we see T. Higgins play that right now like he's still in concussion protocol. And right now at this point if you're still in concussion protocol, he went back in concussion protocol. Like I more question not if we see T. Higgins this week, but do we see him the rest of the season? Like this could be a Cedric Tillman situation where he deals with concussion symptoms and they hold him out because the Bengals, I mean what are they playing for at this point, man? So I think you kind of know where the ball is going. You know, like Jamar Chase, you're starting him, he's a top three wide receiver for the week. Burrow could still put up points. Yes, the Dolphins defense is improved, but if Burrow is playing like Burrow, then okay, wheels up and Chase Brown's going to get a crap ton of targets, man. Like so as operating as if T. Higgins is out, he might be kind of their de facto wide receiver too in this offense because Kaseki is not going to have a full time route share and Audrey Yoshavas does not earn targets at a high rate.
- [48:39]
A
What do you think Fitz?
- [48:41]
C
Yeah, I'm not that concerned because the Bengals offense functioned pretty well against the Ravens on Thanksgiving night in Burrow's first game back and Burrow had four touchdown passes the next week against the Bills. So I think last week was probably just a hiccup. I'm ranking the Bengals pretty normally, but right now I've got Burrow at quarterback four and that's with the anticipation that T. Higgins is going to come back. But as Debro points out, I don't think we can safely conclude that. And if T. Higgins isn't back, I might drop Burrow maybe from quarterback four to as far down as quarterback eight. I would have a tough debate at that point, I think between Joe Burrow and Jacoby Brissette, who is my current quarterback age.
- [49:27]
A
Do you guys expect when I put the sheet together it was before the news of TUA getting benched. Do you guys expect the Dolphins offense to push them a little better with quit yours or like you know, is there a chance that this the Bengals don't need to throw a ton because even with them struggling they're still a lot better than the Dolphins under yours.
- [49:45]
B
D bro, I I've seen Cure Quin yours play football now. I don't, I don't. I think this is honestly going to be a very similar kind of setup to what they were doing with tua. They're just going to ask when yours to play game manager and that's Basically all Quinn yours did in his final year at Texas. He's going to like pepper the underneath with targets and I think the over under is like do you see more than 25 passing attempts for Quinn yours? Probably not. So a lot of running the ball and you know, I'm concerned for everybody in that passing attack, like Waddle versus Turner, you know, what am I doing with Darren Waller? But I don't have a lot of faith in Quinn yours.
- [50:22]
A
Do you see it similarly Fitz?
- [50:25]
C
The only thing about Quinn Ewers is like he can look pretty decent if he's got time to throw and who in the Bengals is going to put pressure on him? That's the one thing that gives me hope about the Miami offense looking somewhat the same because I, I don't think Quinn Ewers is good. But but if he has a clean pocket, maybe this Dolphins offense looks okay and he can at least float the fantasy value of the guys we care about, mainly Jalen Waddle and Darren Waller.
- [50:53]
A
You.
- [50:53]
B
You want me to hit you with a crazy stat here, Fitzy?
- [50:56]
C
All right, go for it.
- [50:57]
B
Since week 11, you want to know where the Cincinnati Bengals actually rank and pressure rate?
- [51:04]
C
Ooh, where?
- [51:05]
B
Eighth, surprisingly eighth. Yes, I know. I was like, I was actually shocked to see that when I was going through the primer. I was like, oh, is this real? Okay, they.
- [51:17]
C
Are they dialing up more blitzes? Is that.
- [51:19]
B
It's a great question. I have to go back through the numbers. But yeah, I was surprised to see that right ahead of the Dallas Cowboys.
- [51:26]
A
In this game against the Ravens. Miles Murphy had some, some good moves. I thought, like there were some, there were some names that I was like, okay, it was like in a decent ish pass rush. Surprised at times. Even without Hendrickson, I wasn't paying close attention to if they were, you know, blitzing more or anything fits to that point. But. All right, if you want a chance to win a Bijan Robinson and Drake London signed mini helmet for free courtesy of our friends@pristineauction.com all you need to do is head to fantasypros.com contest, complete the form and either download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review for the podcast, or follow us on X Instagram or tick tock at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize late Afternoon slate here. I've got two very similar questions coming for back to back games here for game number 10. Falcons at Cardinals. Kyle Pitts is coming off the best fantasy day of any tight end this season. What do you expect from him this week?
- [52:27]
B
Dbro Similar. Not, not similar. Fireworks. Like, I don't think he's going to go for a hundo and three tuddies or anything like that. But I mean I've got him a tight end 3. I don't think Drake London probably plays this week. I think he's a week away from being back in the lineup and Arizona is just terrible versus tight ends, man. Like this year. 6. Most yards per target allowed, 8th most fantasy points per game. So Kyle Pitts. We've, we've arrived. We. I mean we've, we've arrived. Kyle Pitt's season top five tight end. It just took us how many years in head coaches and OCs and what have you.
- [53:01]
A
I want to be excited about Kyle Pitts, but every time I feel like, oh, I'm gonna believe in him in the fancy playoffs, I feel like I should be taking a Polaroid picture like in Memento and writing do not believe his lies. Like, I just feel like I cannot bring myself to fully, fully trust Kyle Pitts because we got so relationship worm.
- [53:21]
B
You're just afraid of getting hurt. We all understand that. It's. This is the same space, man.
- [53:26]
A
By the way, deeper. I was expecting a little more credit for referencing a movie from 25 years ago.
- [53:31]
B
Okay, kudos. Kudos are pulling out for you. It's your best movie take I've ever heard.
- [53:38]
A
I appreciate it. But yeah, I mean Fitz, what are your expectations here? I mean, obviously I think you have to rank him highly. But in terms of your real, truthful, honest expectations, how do you feel about Pitts this week?
- [53:49]
C
The funny thing is I've got him tight end three. And that is with me currently ranking Drake London as if he's going to come back because I, I think there's a still a chance he does. I mean he's been practicing just limited. We haven't gotten him to full yet so maybe it's not this week. But the funny thing is I think I'm going to have him tight end 3 regardless of whether London comes back. But if there's no London, I would have him at tight end three where I'm thinking about whether I should have him ahead of George Kittle at tight end two. And if London is back, I'm wondering whether I should have him below Travis Kelsey. At tight end four. And so like Pitts has now had three really good games in a row because before the 166 yard, three touchdown outburst against the Buccaneers, seven catches for 82 yards against the jets, six catches for 90 yards against the Seahawks. But all of those games with Drake London out and before the injury, Drake London had rattled off three straight 100 yard games and for the season 10.4 targets and 6.7 catches a game. So it's, it would definitely affect Kyle Pitts target share. Even though it's a pretty consolidated target tree in Atlanta with basically just, you know, London and Pitts and whatever, a few dump offs to Bijan and then it's down to David Sills. So yeah, I still think Pitts is an attractive play regardless of whether London comes back this week.
- [55:19]
A
Next game. Jags at Broncos Pretty much the same question here. Trevor Lawrence is coming off the best fantasy day of any quarterback this season. What do you expect from him this week? Fitz?
- [55:29]
C
I've got him ranked quarterback 20. I'm just. It's a tough matchup on the road against the Broncos, but if Trevor Lawrence cooks in this game, we should probably take it as a sign that he has permanently turned the corner.
- [55:43]
A
It has looked really good as of late. You know, Jacoby Myers has made a real difference, obviously. You know, kind of getting further into the season and getting more familiarity with, you know, Liam Cohen's system. It, it looks good. It's a tough matchup this week. Let me ask you just quickly, Fitz, before I toss it to you, bro, in Dynasty or, or even just thinking about how we're gonna be ranking him at the start of next season. Where do you, where do you stand on Lawrence as of right now, like thinking long term or, or are you still hesitant that this might just be a bit of a hot streak?
- [56:15]
C
I'm still a little hesitant. I'm probably like, I've still got him ranked as sort of a mid range quarterback two in Dynasty, but I might have to start thinking about, I don't know, maybe moving him ahead of an older guy like Dak or Mayfield or, you know, and right now I've got him behind Cam Ward because I just, I can at least envision a bright future for him. And it's been so long for Trevor Lawrence. Like guys are not supposed to break out at this late stage of their career. You know, I mean, he's, he's now in his prime and hadn't really become the guy we had hoped he would be until this year. But I don't know. I'm going to have to think about him a lot and assess where I am with him in Dynasty.
- [57:02]
A
Deborah, where are you at on Lawrence for this week? Coming off of just the, you know, the career best game and then also a little bit thinking into the future?
- [57:09]
B
Yeah, I was looking at where I have him in Dynasty and I just bumped him up a few spots like I think somewhere in the mid to high end 2 QB2 range. But I think it's a conversation of him versus like Purdy and Mayfield and all these other kind of guys are going to be a year older and stuff. This week I've got him at QB16, so pretty much in the same area code as Fitz. I think Trevor Lawrence versus Justin Herbert is a very interesting conversation and rankings one in a great matchup but the production hasn't been there. I don't think it's going to be there. One a terrible matchup and he's playing lights out football and so you know, is there a path where Trevor Lawrence can crush the ranking that I have for him this week? Sure. But you know there's also a lot of concerns. You know you got to face the Denver pass rush. Patrick Sutane is probably going to be on Jacoby Myers in this game. At least that's how I'm kind of projecting it. The one thing I will say in the end the the two keys to hopefully for Trevor Lawrence this week is one the increased past game utility and the usage that we saw last week with Travis etn. So if they're going to dial that up that also gives him an out. And I quietly think that everything that I look at points me to say that this is going to be a huge Britain Strange game. If you look at what the Broncos have done versus tight ends, if if Lawrence leans on Britain Strange in this game then he can surpass the ranking we have for him because quietly since week nine, the Denver Broncos have allowed the third most receiving yards per game and the fifth most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They have been getting shredded by tight ends and go back through the all the box scores. Dalton Short Schultz carved them up. Zach Ertz had a monster day. Brock Bowers had a good day. But like you go through it, the packers guys as a collective had a good day versus them. Denver has been getting shredded by tight ends. So if Lawrence outplays the ranking it's because ETN got good pass game usage and did something with it after the catch and Brenton Strange led the day.
- [59:09]
A
Steelers at Lions Aaron Rodgers Is coming off back to back games where he looks legitimately pretty good. And he now faces a banged up Lions defense. They are seven point underdogs in this game in Detroit. Where are you ranking Rogers among quarterbacks this week? DBRA.
- [59:25]
B
I don't believe it. QB 24. Like I think he's looked better, but I still think this is Rogers playing point guard and captain check down in this offense. Mostly it's all yards out to the catch and as bad as the Detroit defense. And yes, their numbers on paper are not good at all. The caveat to that is looking at how the Pittsburgh Steelers offense has operated with this, like, get the ball out of Roger's hands, let the guys do work out of the catch. The caveat in this matchup is looking at this defense. They've allowed the fourth lowest yards after catch the Lions have and the third fewest missed tackles. So if Rogers is gonna play captain check down and not stretch the field in this game, he's gonna have maybe more of a tough time moving the ball than maybe we're kind of expecting.
- [60:15]
A
He did go down the field against the Ravens two weeks ago. He had like multiple throws.
- [60:19]
B
Broken clock. That's all I could say. Broken clock.
- [60:22]
A
Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I mean it was, it was an outlier as of that time, so I think that's fair. But I, I just wanted to say like push against the fact like, like he did look good in that game. But you're right, it was, you know, it is just one game.
- [60:34]
B
Hutchinson gets to him in the first quarter and pops him hard twice. Is he going to sit here and hang in the, hang in the pocket the rest of the game?
- [60:41]
A
Fitz, what do you think?
- [60:43]
C
Same thing as T, bro. I mean QB 24 as well as he's played the last two weeks. He scored 20.5 and 17.0 fantasy points. Solid days, nothing special. QB 14 in fantasy points per game the last two weeks. I just, I never really know exactly what this Pittsburgh. Well, I do kind of know what it's going to look like. A lot of short stuff. And I thought I saw that there. Aaron Rodgers is getting like 70% of his passing yards is after the catch.
- [61:14]
B
Yep.
- [61:15]
A
Yes, I saw that.
- [61:17]
B
Highest in the league. It's actually 67.3%. It's insane.
- [61:21]
C
Yeah.
- [61:22]
A
So let me ask you guys this. Since you guys are in agreement on Rodgers, who wins the game or not who wins the game, but which side are you taking on the. On the plus seven for the Steelers or minus seven for the Lions? Because I. On the One hand I kind of think the Lions are going to smash but on the other hand I'm like if Talmon's getting a touchdown it almost feels like an auto bet. So what direction would you guys go on the on the spread here? Fitz?
- [61:41]
C
Lions to cover, Lions to cover. But it is one of those annoying like Mike Tomlin spots where somehow the Steelers like throw a big scare into the Lions.
- [61:50]
A
Exactly.
- [61:50]
C
If not win.
- [61:52]
A
All right, last game in the Sunday late slate we saved the best for for last year. Raiders at Texans. The Raiders just finished a game with 75 yards as a team on offense and they now get to face the toughest defense in football over under one and a half even remotely startable players for the Raiders in fantasy this week.
- [62:13]
B
D bro, I'll say the over because Genti and Bowers because your other options and Genti in a PPR league like if Geno Smith is back and Pete Carroll's talking about he's probably back this week if Gino is back. I believe in the checkdown for Genty now in half point setting. Are you starting Genty? Well, it depends on your options and how much touchdown hunting hunting you want to go. But in ppr can Genti still get there with like five to six checkdowns? Absolutely. Bowers again it's a situation of what are your other options. You know, like if, if you started Colby Parkinson over Bowers, you're not feeling great but you didn't feel good about Bowers anyway. So the two starting options in this offense. I don't want to start anybody else. Like I wrote it up at the primer. I am not starting any other pass catchers in this Raiders offense, period. Just not.
- [63:02]
A
Fitz. I'm curious what you think. I feel like with Bowers my case would be less that you should not start him and more that I I feel like you have to start him and then we're going to look back and regret starting him just because of what I expect from the offense as a whole. Not obviously a knock on power specifically.
- [63:16]
C
Brock Bowers is always startable. You know, Bowers against the Texans, Bowers against the machines from War of the Worlds. Like I don't care. Brock Bowers, he's going to like he's capable of going off against anyone. So I'm starting him.
- [63:30]
A
Well, let me ask you this quick, quickly, Fitz, because we just had this conversation last week. Kyle Pitts or Brock Bowers? If you don't have room to fit one of them into a flex spot, you have to.
- [63:40]
C
It's Pitts I mean I have Bowers ranked tight end five, but it's, it's pits. It's got to be.
- [63:45]
A
Just wanted to make sure.
- [63:46]
C
So yeah, and then I agree with DBRO bringing up the format in standard scoring. It's, it's over your one and a half line because I don't think Ashton Genti is startable in standard scoring. But if it's PPR or half, dude has 34 catches over his last seven games. So if you're getting a little bit of a benefit from that, whether it's a full point or a half point for each of those, each catch, then I think you can ring some value out of him that way.
- [64:15]
A
He's RB24 in half for what it's worth here. All right, we don't need to talk about this terrible offense anymore. Let's go to Sunday Night football and actually fun game slots of this game got flexed into Sunday night which I think it was a good decision. Patriots at Ravens. Lots of players are ranked close to each other in this one. Let's do some rapid fire starter sit debates from this one. The one that they are like the least close but I just wanted to have a third one in here is quarterback Drake May or Lamar Jackson. I do think for what it's worth, Lamar Jackson has looked more like himself the last couple of weeks. I thought last week in particular he didn't have the biggest game because they didn't need to. He only threw the ball 12 times but I thought it was the most. Lamar has looked like Lamar basically since like week two against the Browns. Like I, I, I was, I felt like I was watching Lamar again in that game in Cincinnati. Drake May of course has been insane this year. They're actually. Oh Lamar actually did move up in the ranking so they are now only two spots apart compared to they were further apart When I put this sheet together. They're both inside the top five. Deborah, I'll start with you on this quick one. Drake May or Lamar Jackson?
- [65:17]
B
Drake May and it's not close for me. QB3 versus QB7.
- [65:22]
A
Okay, Fitz, is it closer for you?
- [65:24]
C
It is closer for me. I echo your sentiments on Lamar. I have him ranked QB5 and I also make QB3.
- [65:31]
A
Okay, so exactly in line with consensus there. The other one I had here, Derek Henry versus Travion Henderson. They were back to back earlier in the week. It looks like there's now one player between them. Henry is at RB12, Henderson at RB14. Fitz, who do you prefer?
- [65:47]
C
I actually have Henderson, RB11 in half point PPR. Henry one spot behind at RB12. But it's close enough that I have Henry ranked higher in standard scoring.
- [65:57]
A
Okay, so, yeah, the format making a difference there, D. RO, who do you prefer, Henry or Henderson?
- [66:02]
B
Trayvon. I got him at RB12 and I got Henry at RB13.
- [66:05]
A
Is that kind of all formats?
- [66:09]
B
Yeah, it's kind of all formats. I mean, the fact of the Keaton Mitchell usage is definitely concerning for, for Henry because you know you're going to get a pass game utility out of him and if he's losing carries to somebody else, it's definitely worrying.
- [66:24]
A
One more head to head from this game. Hunter Henry or Mark Andrews. Now, this was back to back earlier in the week. It is no longer back to back. Henry is well ahead in consensus. But I will still pose the same question that I had planned on. Fits Henry or Andrews?
- [66:38]
C
I would rather play Andrews. I've got him, tight end 18. Henry, tight end 20. I don't want to play either though. Yeah, Henry hasn't done anything and he, he hasn't done anything in matchups with the Bengals. Really? Like, Like, I don't know. I don't want to play either.
- [66:52]
B
Yeah.
- [66:53]
A
So you're basically in line with consensus on Andrews. It's just that you are well below consensus on Hunter. Henry is the.
- [67:00]
C
And I am good with that. I'm very good with that.
- [67:02]
B
Yeah, Debra, I, I was going to say can I go with neither, but I'm with Fitzy Andrews just for the touchdown equity. It's a bad matchup for both of them. I've got Andrews a tight end 20 and Henry a tight end 21. Yuck.
- [67:16]
A
Yeah, I don't really, I don't really want to start either. Honestly. I think I'd rather start likely if I had to pick a tight end in this game. Even though he's ranked lower than both of them and just hope for an explosive play out of him and, and that would be like if I was forced to pick one. I think that's a better chance than. I mean, Andrews needs to catch touchdowns. If he doesn't, he is like totally unplayable.
- [67:36]
B
I'd rather play Mike freaking Gasecki over both of these guys. Yuck.
- [67:39]
A
Yeah. Yeah. I don't, I don't. I don't necessarily disagree with that. We do have a second question on Sunday Night Football. Each week we highlight our favorite three and four star props from prop bet cheat sheet ahead of Sunday Night Football. Fitz, what is your favorite three or four star prop from the cheat sheet this week?
- [67:53]
C
I've got drake may over 20 and a half rushing yards. I gotta admit, I don't really love any of the props from this particular game. But May is averaging 25.9 rushing yards a game. He's beat this number in two of his last three games. I, I don't know. I think May is going to be feeling a little frisky on Sunday and we'll run for more than 20 yards against the Raven.
- [68:17]
B
Yeah, I'm with Fitzy on this. There's certain games where you tell yourself a story and you can kind of get a good feel of like how the game might play out. And props you like. I don't feel great about this game, but I will say like, I'll go with DeAndre Hopkins. It's a three star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet. Under one and a half receptions. This has hit 50 of the time this year, so I think it definitely can hit again.
- [68:38]
A
I think I like Fitz's prop better. The Hopkins one. I feel like in the, the, in the big games the Ravens played early in the year, they were more willing to throw to hit the Hopkins on those like third downs, you know, touchdown, you know, you know, red area of the field type plays. And with this being a really big important game for them on Sunday Night Football, I wonder if he gets two. I don't think he's gonna get like eight catches, right? But like I wonder if he can get to two. I do think Drake May will run. I think that's a good call by you, Fitz.
- [69:04]
C
The Ravens haven't given up a lot of rushing yardage to quarterbacks. But then again, I mean, look who's in their division. It's Joe Burrow. Aaron Rodgers, I mean, it's fits.
- [69:13]
B
Are you saying Aaron Rodgers cannot run in the year 2025?
- [69:17]
A
My Lord, it was Joe Flacco when he faced the Browns in week two. Yeah, it's been Dylan Gabriel. Those were our top pre prop bets for Sunday Night Football this week courtesy of Betting Pros. You can Check out our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet at bettingpros.com Props Premium subscribers have access to our 5 star Prop Bets which have a 57% win rate and we're up over 94 units this season. Luckily, we've also got a special offer for everyone to unlock a month of Betting Pros premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today and use promo code FP1MONTH. That's the number one not spelled out at checkout to redeem your offer. All right, guys, Monday night Football last game here. We've got a little long so we'll keep this one quick. Just kind of a fun question here. Philip Rivers made his return as a 44 year old quarterback. It was one of the stories of the week last week. Week. What did you think about the Colts offense under Rivers and what would you expect out of him and this offense in the second week of this. I'll call it an experiment Fits.
- [70:11]
C
Yeah, I mean the Colts passing game was very, I'm not sure what the right word is here. Condensed, constricted, shrunken. Rivers was getting the ball out super quickly. Only averaged 5.3 air yards per attempt according to Pro Football Reference. Amir Abdullah had 32 receiving yards, Michael Pittman 26. Everyone else under 20. All of the Colts pass catchers averaged under 10 yards per catch except for deep ball artist Alec Pierce who had one catch for 16 yards. And like, because I don't think Philip Rivers is scaring safeties and making them play deep. Jonathan Taylor averaged three and a half yards per carry. So and I know it was a tough matchup against Seattle, but I don't know if it's going to go that much better or if it's going to look any different Monday night against the cold Olds or against the 49ers.
- [71:05]
B
I a lot of the same things Fitzy just pointed out. I think it's just going to be more game management. He's just playing point guard. It's. I mean really this is kind of like the dollar store version of what Aaron Rodgers is doing. We want to draw comparisons here. Just get the ball out and let guys do after the catch. But I mean it has to be thrown out here that like the 49ers have not had a lot of missed tackles. The one thing I will say that will work in Rivers favor is since week 11 the 49ers had the third lowest pressure rate so he should have time in the pocket. You're not going to see any deep shots. Maybe one, maybe one. But the guys it's going to be. Can you operate after the catch in this, this defense, while they're not great, they're not giving, they're not missing a lot of tackles. So all the, the yak yards aren't going to be there. But I do think it could be a huge game for jt they're going to lean heavily on him and if anything bro, we just saw what Tony Pollard did versus that run defense like and other backs like they can't stop the run. This is a really good spot for them to feed JT25 carries and for him to run Rumble for like a buck forty.
- [72:08]
A
We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. We went pretty long. This is of course the Fantasy semifinals so we want to make sure we hit as much as possible here. Plus we had to talk about that insane Thursday night game. Just some quick housekeeping for everybody. We will not have this show next week. We are still going to have content for everybody but just with the holidays we weren't we didn't have the production bandwidth for this particular show so don't expect it next week. We are still going to have a start sit show coming out on Friday. Fitz and I are going to do a live stream on Friday, the day after Christmas as well to help everybody get their lineup. You know, questions answered ahead of, you know, the Fantasy championship. Obviously this is what we do it all for is this upcoming week. So you know we will still be around just not have this particular show and then we will have this show for week 18. It'll just look a little different. We'll be doing more of a look ahead version of the show to 20, 26 and beyond. So that's just kind of what to expect for the next couple of weeks from us. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there for Debro and Fitz. I'm Ryan Warrenley. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Best of luck in the Fantasy semifinals and we'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasyprose.com or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasyprose. Did you know Tide has been upgraded to provide an even better clean in cold water? Tide is specifically designed to fight any.
- [73:56]
C
Stain you throw at it.
- [73:58]
A
Even in cold butter. Yep. Chocolate ice cream.
- [74:02]
B
Sure thing.
- [74:03]
A
Barbecue sauce. Tide's got you covered. You don't need to use warm water. Additionally, Tide pods let you confidently fight tough stains with new coldzyme technology.
- [74:14]
C
Just remember, if it's gotta be clean.
- [74:16]
A
It'S gotta be tied here with one last reminder to keep you off the naughty list this holiday season. Stuff your stockings, your pantry, your gift closet, anywhere you can with Duracell batteries. Because there's nothing worse than opening a gift on Christmas morning and realizing you don't have batteries for it. Duracell batteries are the only battery brand with Power Boost ingredients, which are a unique blend of nickel and lithium designed for long lasting power. So stock up on your double A's and your AAA's so you'll be a okay for the holidays. Choose the only battery brand with Power Boost ingredients. Choose Duracell. When managing your money, think like a fantasy gm. Make smart moves. The Klarna Card is your debit card upgraded? Pay in full now or plan ahead. Stay in control with zero credit impact. To apply and accepted anywhere Visa is Sign up for the Klarna Card by downloading the Klarna app or learn more@klarna.com US Klarna card and take control of your purchases your way. Klarna Card Pay later Plans issued by Web Bank Deposits in your balance account are held at Web bank member fdic. Anywhere Visa is accepted, certain merchant product good and service restrictions apply. Some merchants do not accept virtual cards. Physical card only included with a paid Klarna membership plan.
- [75:32]
B
This is Sophie Cunningham and West Wilson.
- [75:35]
C
From Show Me Something.
- [75:36]
B
The second the weather drops, I'm instantly in holiday mode. Sweaters. Comfort food.
- [75:40]
C
All of it.
- [75:41]
B
And nothing hits better on a cold day than unwrapping an Arby's Classic Roast Beef Facts.
- [75:47]
C
When that tender, slow roast beef is warm and juicy, it's like soul therapy. And if you're feeling a little extra like we usually are, go for the.
- [75:54]
B
Double Dude Double Roast Beef, Double Beef and Cheddar. Twice the meat, twice the happiness.
- [76:01]
C
You know what you want? Get an Arby's Double Roast Beef or a Double Beef and Cheddar in store or delivered today.
- [76:08]
B
Available for a limited time at participating locations while supplies last.
- [76:11]
A
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.