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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 7 (Ep. 1780)
01:07:55
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- [00:00]
Ryan Wormley
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
Colin Coward
This is Colin Coward from the Colin coward podcast on Fox 1. Now you can stream your favorite live sport so you can be there live for the biggest moments. That means NFL Sundays and college football games, nascar, Major league baseball, postseason and more. With Fox one, you get it all. Live, edgier seat plays, high octane moments, and, and that feeling like you're right there in the action. Fox one, we live for live streaming now.
- [00:34]
Ryan Wormley
Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. I'm Ryan, warmly joined, as I am every Friday morning by Debro and Pat Fitz Morris. Guys, I was not here last Friday. Thanks again to Seth Wilcock for filling in as host. Really appreciate him stepping up while I was. I still am on the mend, but when I was just starting off being on the shelf. So thanks to him for, for helping out last week. I hope you guys had fun. You guys came up with your own key questions for that episode, right? How was that experience, D, bro.
- [01:02]
Debro
Oh, well, shout out to Seth. Seth actually knocked it out of the park.
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Ryan Wormley
Oh, he ended up coming up with them himself.
- [01:07]
Debro
Yeah, he came up with them. And Fitz and I were left to evaluate. We were like, looks pretty good, bud.
- [01:13]
Ryan Wormley
Let's go. Oh, that's, that's great. I was gonna, I was, I was hoping you guys were gonna do it as was initially planned, just so I could, you know, have you guys pull back the curtain and see what it's like coming up with these questions every episode.
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Debro
Well, since you're starting this off with a question, can I ask you a question, Worm?
- [01:27]
Ryan Wormley
Of course.
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Debro
How. How are those electric carts in Walmart? Are they faster than I think? Or the. How does that work out? Do you get all the. How much, how much groceries can you store in the front cupboard?
- [01:38]
Ryan Wormley
I haven't used them yet. My mom was very nice and flew out to help out for the first week post surgery. So a buddy of mine, I said this on yesterday's show, lent me a knee scooter from when he had torn his Achilles. So I was on.
- [01:52]
Debro
Has it got the basket on the front?
- [01:54]
Ryan Wormley
I, I, I didn't have the best. My mom was like, you know, pushing the cart, and I was on the knee scooter next to her, like, in the grocery store. Like, oh, yeah, I usually get this. I usually get that. Whatever it was. I have not attempted to buy groceries by myself quite yet, and I'm not looking forward to that experience.
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Debro
This thing sucks. I can only fit three six packs in this.
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Ryan Wormley
What is this?
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Debro
Come on.
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Ryan Wormley
There is, like, A tiny little bag on the knee scooter that, like, I put a couple stuff in, but it's not like. Yeah, it's not like. It's not like a bag. It's like a. It's like a personal knee scooter. It's not like at the grocery store. So it's not designed for that.
- [02:23]
Debro
So do you, like, you need to go get some shampoo or something like that, you know?
- [02:26]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, I guess I'm like, I want to bring in, like, a backpack and be like, hey, I promise I'm going to pay for everything in here. I'm not trying to steal, but do you mind if I just, like, throw this in the back?
- [02:35]
Debro
You check out my backpack?
- [02:37]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, exactly.
- [02:38]
Debro
Go to there be.
- [02:39]
Ryan Wormley
Beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep. Yeah, it's. It's the little stuff that you don't think about that gets more difficult. So. Good. Good. Key question by you there. Yeah. Fitz, how are you doing on this Friday morning?
- [02:50]
Fitz Morris
Doing great, Worm. Great to have you back from your foot surgery and ready to discuss what you know. DBRO and I were just talking about this off camera. What a great slate it is this week. We have some fun matchups, man. Like, anytime you get like a half dozen or more good matchups, it's a good week in the NFL, and we've got at least six or seven.
- [03:09]
Ryan Wormley
Well, and it already started last night. Thursday night football was a stunningly great time.
- [03:14]
Fitz Morris
Unexpectedly enjoyable.
- [03:16]
Debro
Man did not disappoint.
- [03:18]
Ryan Wormley
Boys 33, 31, man. Wild game.
- [03:21]
Fitz Morris
I was down in the dumps from, you know, the brewers going down three nothing. And that game ended shortly into the start of Bengals Steelers. But, man, that game kind of lifted my spirits. Like, that was just a lot of fun to watch. Really fun to see Jamar Chase and T. Higgins both heavily involved again. And kudos to. To Joe Flacco for resuscitating the Bengals passing game.
- [03:43]
Ryan Wormley
I don't know what the right phrase is, but heavily involved doesn't seem like enough for 33 combined targets, 22 combined combined catches, 161 yards for Chase, 96 yards for Higgins, a touchdown each. I mean, Flacco there. People were making jokes right and left on social media last night, but, like, resurrecting the fantasy hopes for this team. And it's. It's not just Chase and Higgins who have looked great here. I mean, I mean, Flacco himself, 342 yards and three touchdowns, but Chase Brown also having room to run and looking, you know, he didn't get in the, in the end zone, but looking closer to what we were expecting when he was being drafted in the, know, third and fourth round of drafts this year, he had 11 carries, 108 yards. He had a long of 37. That's his longest of the season. So, Dero. Yeah, like, the Bengals just like looking like I. They're not going to be contenders. Right. Without Joe Burrow, but just looking like they can still be a team that bring. And the Steelers defense has problems, but the Bengals looking at the very least like a team that can be above water in terms of the fantasy relevance of these stars that we were drafting as stars.
- [04:43]
Debro
Absolutely. And I think the other thing that, like, if Flacco is going to give relevance to this passing game, I mean, like, what do y' all think about their upcoming schedule? They get the jets, the Bears, Steelers again, which apparently their. Their defense is just absolutely fraudulent this year. I tried to give them more credence and I was like, oh, maybe they're getting better. They're not the Patriots, the Ravens, the Bills, the Ravens again. Dolphins car like, they got a pretty good rest of the season schedule. So, I mean, if you bought low on this offense, like you got chasing a trade and I saw multiple people in discord hitting me up last night like, yeah, baby, they traded for Jamar Chase or T. Higgins or heck, some people even went out and got Chase Brown feeling pretty good this morning about it.
- [05:23]
Ryan Wormley
Jamar Chase in the consensus rest of season or I'm looking at Weekly Arrest. I was trying to pull up the rest of the season here. Fitz, I want to ask you where you think he should be rest of the season, and I want to see where he is in consensus. He. He. He's wide receiver four. Okay, I got it pulled up. So he's behind jsn, Amon, Ra and. And Puka. But obviously Puka has the injury question. So Chase, that wide receiver for rest of season and Higgins, obviously this is not accounting for last night. This was going into last night. Is that a wide receiver 34. So that I think would probably move up just as people get more comfortable with Flacco. How far up do you think that's going to move?
- [05:57]
Fitz Morris
Yeah, I think Chase is probably going to go into the top three. And I also had him wide receiver for rest of season not having adjusted for last night's game in this week's results yet. And I had t. Higgins, wide receiver 36. Gonna have to move him up, too. It's just fun. Like, we know the interceptions are coming for Joe Flacker.
- [06:14]
Debro
Yeah, yeah.
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Fitz Morris
He is going to throw interceptions.
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Ryan Wormley
Who cares. Getting fantasy perspective, right?
- [06:19]
Fitz Morris
We were getting interceptions from Jake Browning and without any of the passing game goodness and now we're at least getting the goodness. So like Chase, Chase and Higgins investors have to be just over the moon with what they saw last night.
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Debro
Flacco just keep doing your best Jameis Winston.
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Ryan Wormley
That's all we need the last two before we get to the Steelers side. He threw 47 times. He doesn't need to throw that much if he is this concentrated target share for Chase and Higgins like as long as they are getting this percentage of the targets we will be fine if the if Flacco throws 12 fewer times in a game because it's going to be so concentrated on those two.
- [06:56]
Fitz Morris
So and yet like we saw what how many yards did a Yosevash have? Like almost 50 and had like a nice gain or two.
- [07:04]
Ryan Wormley
Yep, Yoshibash had 49 and Fant had 44 and a touchdown. But that was I was on four targets each. So on the Steelers side Jalen Warren looked great obviously. 16 carries, 127 yards. Aaron Rodgers I couldn't believe the throw on the Hail Mary attempt at the end like that. His arm is still capable of that. That was still as a rocket. That was like a jaw drop dropping just amount of yards to throw for in the air. I could not believe he got that ball to the end zone at at 42 or whatever years old he is. So that was remarkable. But. But Pat Fryermuth debro five catches, 111 yards, two touchdowns. Like obviously the big breakaway for one of those long touchdowns but like was getting involved. Besides that he, I mean he's tied for the team leading targets. Tied with Johnny Smith. Very much a Arthur Smith, you know, special there especially also with you know the all four touchdowns going to the three tight ends very much again an Arthur Smith special. But Friarmouth kind of stood stood apart from the rest in terms of the overall production by the end.
- [08:04]
Debro
Yeah, I I think it's fool's gold man. Walking into this week they were using Darnell Washington and on more routes and snaps than Frymuth. He actually fell to third in the pecking order. So I buried him in rankings. Actually had Johnny Smith bumped up a little bit because his route share had bumped up and he got as many targets as Friarmouth. I'm not buying the Fryer mute stuff. Like I I just think it's still going to be volatile week to week whether they're going to have Washington playing like another offensive lineman spot and depending on what they want to do on the weekly basis. I also think like the Steelers are. If they're fully going to go all in and the fact that they're four and two, this is a franchise that I think is. I wouldn't be surprised if, and I'm not saying it's a major move, but I wouldn't be surprised if they make a move for a wide receiver because they need somebody else, man. Like, it just, I mean, can we talk about it for a second? DK Metcalf's performance last night, like, Aaron Rodgers just didn't look at him in the second half. Like everybody like myself, that was, you know, betting receiving yardage overs for Metcalf. Going against the Bengals, we was feeling pretty good in the first half and then the second half you're like, bro, where. Where's he at? What are we doing here? So I, I don't know, man. I'm not buying the fryer mute stuff. And this offense just in general, like outside of Jalen Warren and streaming Aaron Rodgers, I don't know if I want that much of a part of it.
- [09:18]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, what you think?
- [09:20]
Fitz Morris
Yeah, I mean, dk, he's got this weird usage this week. We think of DK as like sort of a Mike Evans type. A lot of air yards, not a lot of yards after the catch. And it's been sort of reversed with him. Like I think he is right now approaching his yardage after the catch that he had had for some full seasons in Seattle, which is kind of funny. But the air yards are just like way down from where they normally are with DK Metcalf, so it's strange usage. I think it's going to make for some erratic results for him. And as Deborah said, I just don't think you can hang your hat on any of the tight end stuff. And Arthur Smith's, it's going to be whack a molecule with trying to pick the right Steelers tight end in any given week. And the long fryermouth touchdown was kind of a busted coverage for the Bengals. Yeah, it's just this is not sort of sustainable, reliable production fits to your point.
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Debro
I think it's kind of ironic and funny considering how that offense has operated and yet we're talking about the arm strength. Aaron Rodgers has had like that last throw. They haven't used that like just how you talked about it. He's been a point guard like his. He's like bottom five at a dot. Bottom five and time to throw like it is literally been. Snap it, get the ball out of his hands and let guys work after the catch. So they're not even taking downfield shots on those games.
- [10:42]
Fitz Morris
You don't want to make the. The old guy stand in the pocket and face the pass rush. And I don't think Aaron Rodgers wants to stand in the pocket and face the pass.
- [10:50]
Ryan Wormley
Hey, old guys can be more mobile than you think. Did you see that Joe Flacco zone read.
- [10:55]
Debro
Oh D. And then I. I will. You will not hear me on this show. Give Zach Taylor too many flowers about play calling and stuff like that. The most vanilla scheme ever. They rely on Joe Burrow. That was a stroke of mastery. Like, that was a master brushstroke. Dude, that was fantastic. Because at that point of the game, nobody was like. I was like, oh, my God, look at him go. Like, I. Nobody was expecting that. That's why it was so good.
- [11:21]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah.
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Fitz Morris
Shout out to a bunch of our colleagues who did a parlay, betting the over on rushing yardage for both quarterbacks.
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Debro
Oh, my, my.
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Ryan Wormley
Remarkable. Nice.
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Fitz Morris
Nice win, fellas.
- [11:31]
Ryan Wormley
By the way, talking about circ of genius. Just quickly because we didn't mention it. T. Higgins could have had a second touchdown in this game, but he goes down at the end to. To clinch it and give them the field goal attempt to win it. But his. His stat line, which was already good, you know, six catches, 96 yards and a touchdown could have looked even better if he had tried to score there. Let's dive into the rest of the slate here. So, like we said, kind of kicking off really strong and hoping it'll continue with what looks like a pretty fun slate, hopefully to lift Fitz's spirits. Fitz. I told a friend of mine after the division series, I was like, the Dodgers are playing eight more games this year. They're not going to. They're not going to lose again. So I don't know that it really mattered how the brewers showed up. I just think the Dodgers are kind of different. So, you know, keep your chin up there.
- [12:14]
Fitz Morris
Yeah. They are a destruction machine, no question.
- [12:17]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah.
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Fitz Morris
Built for fall.
- [12:18]
Ryan Wormley
I'll be rooting for the Mariners in the AL side and if they get there, like, I think they would also get swept. I mean, I just. That's what the Dodgers are. Reminder for everybody. All of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found@fantasyprose.com rankings. Game number one. Another London game. We are not done yet with the early mornings. Rams versus Jaguars. De start with you, Brian Thomas Jr. Had his best game of the season in week six, finishing his wide receiver seven on the week, which was his first time higher than wide receiver 30 in any week this season. That's in half PPR scoring. Was that an outlier or do you expect him to look more like the wide receiver we thought we were drafting in August when he faces the Rams here in London?
- [12:59]
Debro
I think he keeps the hot straight going guys. And also if I watched a good bit of that game, he had a long touchdown get wiped off because of penalty. So it could have been an even bigger day with Brian Thomas Jr. I think we're seeing closer to the player we thought we were drafting. And over the last two weeks, I mean he's gotten a 22% target share, he's averaging 35.1% of the air yards and if you look at the coverage structure for the Rams, I mean this is a team that's run the eighth highest single high rate since week five and Brian Thomas Jr. Has come back to life versus single high 32% target share 2.9 yards per route run. This, this secondary has given up a lot of receiving yardage, 13th most per game to perimeter wide receivers. So I think it's another good game for Brian Thomas Jr. Fitz, what do you think?
- [13:43]
Ryan Wormley
And also like just kind of think about the bigger picture with Thomas. Like if I had told you before the season started that Travis Hunter was going to be a complete non factor in the offense, I think we maybe would have been even higher on Brian Thomas Jr. Just saying, hey, this first round really talented receiver isn't coming into, you know, take all these targets that we're kind of worried about. That's been the case, but it hasn't just panned out the same way for Thomas maybe starting to here.
- [14:07]
Fitz Morris
Yeah, that's a good point. And oh by the way, like we have a good game in London this week after getting that London, London has.
- [14:17]
Ryan Wormley
Proven capable in the past of taking what look like good matchups and making them look ugly. So let's, let's see how it pans out here.
- [14:24]
Fitz Morris
Fingers crossed. I'm cautiously optimistic about Brian Thomas Jr. Friend of the show Jacob Gibbs of CBS noted on Twitter the other day that Brian Thomas Jr. Had a 37% first read share in his last game and he's been at or above 37% on first read share in two of his last three games. I think first read share is a bigger deal in the Jacksonville offense than maybe some other offenses because if the first read isn't there for Trevor Lawrence the success rate on his drop backs has not been very good this year. He is kind of a first read quarterback and also encouraging. BTJ average 5.1 yards per target over his first four games. That's a terrible number. Over his last two games he's at 10.6 yards per target which is more befitting a star receiver. So things do seem to be moving in the right direction.
- [15:14]
Ryan Wormley
Where do you have him in the ranks this week? Fitz?
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Fitz Morris
I have got Brian Thomas Jr. At wide receiver 13.
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Ryan Wormley
Is that too high, too low or just right?
- [15:23]
Debro
It's just right. I've got him at wide receiver 12 and I might, I might bump them up like a spot or two more.
- [15:29]
Fitz Morris
Yeah, right now I've got him below one spot below Romo Dunes a and it could be pretty windy in Chicago so I might move him up.
- [15:38]
Ryan Wormley
Well speaking of Roma dunes, they let's go to the Saints at Bears first game in the kind of more normal early slate after the London game. I'm not asking about a dunesday. I'm asking about DeAndre Swift. On a scale from 1 to 10, how real was Swift's excellent Week 6? He had 108 rushing yards, 67 receiving yards, a receiving touchdown. It was RB6 on the week. Fitz, what do you expect from Swift for a follow up against the Saints?
- [16:02]
Fitz Morris
So are we saying the real end of the spectrum would be 10?
- [16:05]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah. 10 is like he's going to be a top six running back rest of season. Super real. This is the new running game for the Bears. One is like total outlier. He's going to come back crashing back to earth. Not that he's like been awful but like he's not going to look anything like this in week seven.
- [16:20]
Fitz Morris
Gotcha. I'll go mid spectrum with maybe five and a half or six. I don't think DeAndre Swift is going to suddenly turn into a super efficient runner. He was dead last among qualifying running backs in rushing yards over expected per carry last season and he ranked bottom 10 in that category going into the game against Washington. On the other hand, Swift has had big games before and the Bears were coming out of their buy. So Ben Johnson had two weeks to cook up the good stuff. The commanders and maybe Ben Johnson was just generally able to work out some of the bugs in the offense generally and the running game in particular. And that offensive line. They've got a lot of high priced talent up there with these guys they brought in like Joe Thuney and Chris Dallman. Those guys earned their money on Monday nights Like they did a bang up job in the running game and maybe we're starting to see that unit truly come together and work in unison after these guys hadn't really what worked as a unit ever before this season.
- [17:19]
Ryan Wormley
D Ro Fitz kind of mentioned it like coming out of the buy. I was, I was going to ask if, if that was kind of an angle you wanted to take on this in terms of just like, did they figure out something with the running game and the offense in general coming out of the bye week, or do you see this as still kind of more on the fluky side of things?
- [17:35]
Debro
I think it's more on the fluky side just considering how good he looked. I think it's actually more telling about the Washington Commanders run defense. We've had moments where they've gotten ripped and I mean that, that happened last week. So I think it's more telling about their run defense than it is because DeAndre Swift still doesn't look like if you turn on the film, like he's not in the open field making guys miss a ton, like he's getting a lot of what's blocked. Like you look at a lot of the different metrics. He's middle of the road now and missed tackles, force per attempt. He's bottom of the barreling yards at the contact per attempt. I don't, I think he comes back and now he's. We've seen DeAndre Swift playing through injuries not so well in previous seasons, now popping up midweek with a groin, getting limited practices. I think he comes back to earth. I'm giving this like a 5. And the other thing about it is like the Saints run defense could hold him down this week. They give it the seventh lowest yards after contact per attempt. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not buying it. I, I don't think that this one game just all of a sudden like changes who DeAndre Swift has been over the last basically two seasons. Three maybe.
- [18:37]
Ryan Wormley
Debra, are you buying into any kind of revenge game narrative of Spencer Rattler vs. Caleb Williams, given that Caleb took Rattler's job in college?
- [18:46]
Debro
I mean, Rattler, look, everybody's got to hype themselves up somehow, you know, to get ready for, you know, they've been slighted and stuff like that. That's how professional athletes do. And I'm not going to tell them not to do it, but I, I think the Bears are going to roll here versus the Saints.
- [19:02]
Fitz Morris
Good pull on that worm. I forgot that Caleb totally displaced Spencer Rattler in college.
- [19:07]
Ryan Wormley
I, I paid close attention to Caleb because he was for a long time considered a possibility to go to Maryland because He's from the D.C. area and he obviously did not and didn't I, I don't think ultimately ended up considering him that closely. But the rumors for a while locally were that he was, you know, giving consideration to Maryland. So that, that early career, Caleb, I was paying very close attention and imagining if he had been in College park instead. So I do remember that, that, that stuff going on with Rattler. Let's go to the next game here. Dolphins at Browns. Initially I kind of struggled to come up with a good question on this. So I kind of just, you know, threw out, you know, what player in this game do you guys disagree with their consensus ranking most strongly? I do want to note though that, and we talked about this a little bit yesterday, Fitz, the weather now looks very bad for this game. And Debro Fitz, you know, said on the Thursday show with Jake that, you know, he tends to be a fade the weather narrative type of, of manager. He's not overly worried about it to an extreme end though you do have to consider it. And the reporting yesterday was maybe winds even as high as 50 and 60 miles an hour. There is also 94% chance of rain. And we are talking about two quarterbacks who are not exactly known for having particularly strong arms. So you can still answer the initial question that I posed to you guys when I was putting together the sheet of which player you disagree with on their consensus ranking. But, but I want to get your take on the extreme weather here too and how that's impacting your rankings this week. Dbro.
- [20:31]
Debro
Yeah, so I, I, I'm with Fitz that I don't usually freak out because whenever we get weather issues later into the year, that's the first questions we get in discord and stuff where people are like, oh my gosh, the weather. And it's like, dude, the wind, the wind's like 10 miles an hour. It's going to rain a little bit. Like what do you, what are you wigging out about? Like, I'm not worried about that. When we get to monsoon level conditions, yes, it's going to impact it. Like you're talking like 20, 25 sustained wins, gusts up above that. So I do think it's going to impact the game environment with this game. Not so much the rain, but the sustained winds. And you talked about it Worm. Like these are two quarterbacks. We're not talking about arm strength a ton. So we're going to see some ducks here. Probably A lot more rushing like over Under Quin Sean Judkins 75 carries in this game. The guy that I'm I'll pull out of here that that I disagree with consensus ranking if he doesn't get a touchdown in this game. I'm not ranking Darren Waller inside my top 12 tight ends for the week. And I understand like okay, he's run high with the touchdowns. He saved himself with that. The matchup, the coverage matchup for Darren Waller is quietly terrible. Like the fact that the the Cleveland Browns are running single high at the third highest rate 61% of the defensive snaps hurts Darren Waller. Since being on the field for the Dolphins he's gotten two targets two versus single high. He has a 5.1% target share versus single high. So the fact that this is what the the Dolphins are going to see a ton. You talk about the weather and all that kind of stuff. Maybe Darren Waller like saves his day with a touchdown but outside of that I'm not going to be ranking him inside my top 12 tight ends for the week.
- [22:07]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, what do you think?
- [22:09]
Fitz Morris
Just don't want to play anyone from the passing games in this contest on either side. Through no fault of his own. The guy would probably disagree with most on rankings is Jalen Waddle because he's ranked as a high end wide receiver too. I think his ECR is wide receiver 16 so I've got him down a wide receiver 22 and even that seems optimistic. You just hope he catches a lot of short passes and maybe volume carries the day for him. He has been really good in the two games the Dolphins have had to play without Tyreek Hill since his knee injury. But yeah, the conditions are just going to be brutal here and there is a wind tunnel effect in Cleveland Stadium. That is the one stadium I get a little concerned with windy conditions in because yeah when people ask me rankings questions and try to lead me saying oh well this guy is dealing with 15 mile an hour. 15 mile an hour winds is not doesn't matter. Yeah, go out and throw a nerf ball in your yard and 15 mile an hour winds. It's not like you can't hit a target but 25 mile an hour Winds with gusts 44 miles an hour in rain. Yeah, I'm fading the passers and give me all the quinte on Judkins and Devon Achan.
- [23:21]
Ryan Wormley
I just want to highlight for everybody before we move out this game or we are moving off this game but again we already talked about Puka Nukua has officially been ruled out for Sunday. That is an early game, of course. So if you are, you know the type of person who likes to wait till Sunday to set all your lineups, make sure he's out of it early because that is the London game. So Puka, we expected that, which is why I didn't bring it up in that game, but officially has been ruled out according to the fine folks on Twitter. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is top rated, probably because there's so many promos and so much to bet. If you're doing some fantasy research for Sunday, don't forget to check out these players odds to score on the Hard Rock Bet Apple. And if you want to ride a hot hand, look at the Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub Fantasy Pro says Christian McCaffrey as our consensus 4th ranked running back this week, he's reached the end zone is in eight straight October games. If you're not sure whether to start or sit devonte Adams he is riding a four game touchdown streak against the Jags. You can bet those streaks and find more insights any day of the week on the Hard Rock Bet app. And if you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits you get not only your winnings but $150 in extra bonus bets. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable and bonus bets.
- [24:39]
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- [25:04]
Colin Coward
Is Colin Coward from the Colin coward podcast on Fox 1. Now you can stream your favorite live sport so you can be there live for the biggest moments. That means NFL Sundays in college football games, NASCAR Major League Baseball, postseason and more. With Fox one, you get it all live edge of your seat plays, high octane moments and that feeling like you're right there in the action. Fox 1 We live for live streaming now.
- [25:34]
Ryan Wormley
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Debro
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- [25:54]
Ryan Wormley
Check out zyn.com find to find Zyn at a store near you. Warning this product contains nicotine.
- [26:01]
Debro
Nicotine is an addictive chemical.
- [26:03]
Colin Coward
America is changing and so is the world. But what's happening in America isn't just a cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere. I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm Tristan Redman in London and this is the Global Story.
- [26:22]
Debro
Every weekday we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [26:34]
Ryan Wormley
Next game up here guys. Raiders at Chiefs Rasheed Rice is back, so we of course have to ask about him. It's the key storyline in this game. Fitz, I'll start with you. What are your expectations for Rice and for how he impacts the other fantasy relevant players in this Chiefs offense?
- [26:49]
Fitz Morris
I think he'll do well. I have him ranked as a low end wide receiver one this week. Rice has kind of a specialized role in that offense so it should be pretty seamless when he steps back into that role. He's a short area receiver, doesn't really run the full route tree. His average depth of target for his career is 4.9 yards. But Andy Reid's playbook is full of good stuff for Rice that has just worked splendidly. All sorts of wide receiver screens and quick hitters and Patrick Mahomes is slinging it around man. The Chiefs have a pass rate over expected of plus 9.7% highest in the league, so Rice's return is great for Mahomes. He's QB1 in fantasy scoring and could very well stay there all season. Rice's return probably not as good for Xavier Worthy, but maybe it's not that bad because yeah, Worthy most likely loses some target share, but maybe Rice's presence gives Worthy an efficiency boost like they've complementary roles and defenses are going to have to pay close attention to Rice now. Travis Kelsey's target share, it's probably going to settle in at something like 15%. So he's maybe a lower end tight end one, not not so much a mid range tight end one and then Hollywood Brown Pretty much becomes unplayable for fantasy. And how much are the Chiefs going to bother running the ball now that they're fully staffed at wide receiver?
- [28:09]
Ryan Wormley
What do you think? So Rice's wide receiver 9 in the consensus rankings for this week. That actually does feel aggressive to me. Just like first game back. You never know like what kind of rust there will be to shake off. You know, he's not just coming back from suspension, but, you know, was pretty badly injured the last time he played. It was a long time ago at this point, but still it is his first game back from them. So I don't like the idea in a vacuum of putting him inside the top 10. Having said that, looking at the names after him like Roger 10 is Roma Dunes a 11 is George Pickens with CD Lamb coming back. Debo Samuel is 12th and he's, you know, hasn't really practiced this week. You know, Brian Thomas Jr. Jalen Waddle. We just talked about the weather. So like there's not a ton of obvious names to put ahead of him. Even if I don't like having Rice like wide receiver nine feels too strong in a vacuum. Where do you have Rice ranked D row in his first game back?
- [28:55]
Debro
I've got him as a wide receiver one. I've got him at wide receiver 11. I mean I understand the hesitation. I guess to me if you look at this it's more of just the mid season, the fact that he's coming back mid season. If we all zoomed out about this and said, okay, if this was week one and Rasheed Rice was going to be a full go, where would we be ranking him? And so that's where I think it's appropriate because if that was the case and he was coming back, and if anything you can make the case he should be healthier now than he would have been in week one coming back from the injury. So considering all of that, like I think the ranking's appropriate. The betting markets are saying they're, they're aggressive on him as well. Like Hard Rock Bet right now has his line at 62 and a half receiving yards and I'm not going to shade anybody taking the over now. I'm probably like shading away from it a little bit, but I think he's going to step back in and be their unquestioned wide receiver one. The matchup is good. We know that he is their zone beating option. The Las Vegas Raiders run zone at the highest rate in the NFL, 86.2% and, and they're also top 12 and as far as PPR points for target given up to slot receivers. So, yeah, I'm with it. I'm not saying that it doesn't feel aggressive, but I think the reason it feels aggressive is first game back, middle of the season. If we flip this on its head and this was the start of the season and he was good to go week one, this is where we'd be ranking him.
- [30:16]
Ryan Wormley
See, I would actually be even. I would be fading him more if it was week one this year. Again, coming off the injury, I would say, like, I would want to see it for. I, I'm not even saying not to start him. I'm just saying to dial back expectations maybe a little bit is, is kind of the main point I'm trying to make here. Because, again, like, I, I do think, like, by and large you have to start him because even a lot of the names that you might have drafted later than him that have filled in admirably like an Emeka Ibuka is not going to be an option. Right? So, like, those names that could have maybe leapfrogged him in how you rank him this week are not really on the field. So, so I'm not suggesting that you should be sitting Rashee Rice. I just don't want everybody to go in and say, like, oh, we're going to see, like, top 10 production right away. That's just not the way I'm looking at it. I, I want to see it, I want to see the rust and, and just coming back from everything because it's a, it's a long layoff and, and the, and the offense has been working really well. I think Fitz's point about how his role is kind of specialized compared to some of these other guys is a good one in terms of, like, it's not going to rock the boat on the offense too much. Right. It's just going to be more additive than, like, you know, messing up the juju. No, no pun intended, but just what everybody else is doing in this receiving room, again, just wide receiver nine feels, feels strong to me. But again, there's, there's not a lot of names afterwards that you can make a strong case for. Mo. I, I do get why he's ultimately in that range. We'll see how it ends up playing out. Let's go to the next game here. Eagles at Vikings Phillies offensive struggles continued last Thursday against the Giants. What can they do? Debro against Brian Flores and the Vikings defense.
- [31:46]
Debro
I mean, man, I, I, I think the, the thing they should be doing is running the ball. Now I know that, you know, that's not going to make the receivers happy. And there's been all this, you know, the Eagles are always in the press about AJ Brown and dude, if they could ever have an OC for two seasons in a row, we would see better things out of the Eagles. I think that's the one of the storylines that kind of gets buried with all this. It's like all the drama about them not throwing the ball or Jalen hurts, dude, like how easy do we think it is for. For a team to turn over four OCs and four years like that? That's not easy for anybody for quarterbacks, for. For anybody like for offensive continuity. So I think they're going to run the ball and have success doing it. You can run on the Vikings 9th Most rushing yards allowed per game. And the thing that is really going to help them because their offensive line has not played up to previous year expectations of the Eagles, they're giving up the fifth most yards before contact per attempt, which is really going to help Saquon and give them some room to run. So I think we're going to see a lot of running for the Eagles and a lot of Dallas Goddard, dude, he's been getting a lot of targets and this is a really good matchup. I mean Minnesota runs too high at the highest rate in the NFL. Dallas Goddard versus too high, dude, he's been getting elite usage. 23% target share to Fitzy's point, about first reach here, 26.1% first reach here. And Minnesota's given up the 10th most schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to tight end. So big game for Dallas Goddard, resurgent game probably for Saquon Barkley, A.J. brown and DeVonta Smith. You probably feel like you've been feeling the entire part of the season. And do I start them or do I not? I don't know what to freaking do with them. If I sit them, I'm probably going to get burned by it. So I'm probably playing him as a flex play.
- [33:26]
Ryan Wormley
I want to push back a little bit on the constantly changing offensive coordinator stuff for the Eagles just because unless your head coach is the offensive play caller, that's everybody. There are not every team.
- [33:41]
Debro
4O season. 4 years.
- [33:43]
Ryan Wormley
4 and 4 years. But they do not last long. There are only two offensive coordinators. There are two play callers in the NFL that aren't head coaches that have even been with their team since 2023. This is like you get maybe two years and either you're not good enough and you get replaced or you're good enough and you get hired away to be someone's head coach. So, so the, the guys that have offensive play calling head coaches, they of course have that type of continuity because those are head coaches. They're not getting getting poached. But any team that doesn't have a play calling head coach like four and four years is extreme. But it is like it is a year to year. Maybe you get a second year. That's it. Joe Brady and Todd Monken are the only two non head coaches who are offensive play callers who have been with their team since even 2023. Everybody else is in year one or two. So like every quarterback whose head coach is not an offensive play caller is dealing with at least some level of turnover there. Again, 4 and 4 is a lot. I don't want to also to that.
- [34:36]
Debro
Point isn't that shouldn't be that a factor about, you know, quarterback play? EB and flowing over multiple seasons too. And the other thing I, I'll push back a little bit on it. Worm is the other thing about the Eagles play callers. It's been very hit or miss. Shane Stichting, good. Brian Johnson, terrible. Okay. Kellen Moore, really good. Kevin Patulo, horrible. So it's been not just the fact of the turnover, it's been, oh, he's really, really freaking good. Dear Lord, what are you doing? Oh, he's really, really good. Have you ever called plays or seen an NFL offense run ever, ever?
- [35:13]
Ryan Wormley
So it has been a real roller coaster, that's for sure. By the way, I want to correct myself because I said it was just Brady and Monk. And there is a third because I was just looking at AFC. Drew Petzing has also since 20, he's also since 2023. So there are three names whose head coaches are not offensive play callers who have been there who are even just in year three, you know, let alone any anything beyond that. And there's nobody with a year four beyond who's not the the head coach amongst the play callers. Sorry, that was a bit of a detour there. Fitz. What do you expect out of the Eagles against this aggressive defense?
- [35:43]
Fitz Morris
Hey, you know what's funny about Kevin Petullo's offense And I'm sorry Eagles fans, I know none of this is very funny to you. Our buddies k last in eroc regulars on the Fantasy pros Discord who Debro and I have become good friends with those. Those poor dudes have to be besides themselves these days. But what's Sort of humorous is that Petullo's offense has been terrible for all the principals involved, except for Dallas Goddard, who suddenly morphed into Tony Gonzalez. And I stumbled into Goddard in a couple of drafts and it has been like finding $100 bill on the sidewalk. And I hope I've distracted everyone with this little diatribe about Dallas Goddard because ultimately I have no idea what to expect of the Eagles offense against Brian Flores defense this weekend in Minnesota. And I was just trying to fill time rather than throw my hands up in the air.
- [36:31]
Ryan Wormley
Devro, I was asking for Fitz and Jake a little bit yesterday about Jalen Hurts and where you'd want to rank him in a matchup like this. And sort of the consensus from that conversation was, you know, they're more worried about the less experienced quarterbacks going up against a hyper, aggressive defense like Flores is. Where are you ranking Hertz? Are you dialing back your expectations for him at all in this matchup?
- [36:55]
Debro
I'm not. Only because the time you do that and, and the fact that you can run on the Vikings and stuff like that, he's going to bury you with two rushing touchdowns.
- [37:04]
Fitz Morris
Yeah, don't do the tosh poet.
- [37:06]
Debro
You can't. Yeah, like you can't push him outside the top five. Like I've got him at QB4. I just settled between he's going to be QB3, QB4. Like just with the fact that he could score two rushing touchdowns any week.
- [37:18]
Ryan Wormley
Let's go to Panthers at Jets. The initial question I had in here was about Rico Dowdle. I still want to ask about him, but we know I was putting this together earlier in the week, you know, kind of more unclear about what was going on with Shuba Hubbard. So I'll just kind of dial back the question from a macro level view. What do you expect the workload and usage to look like fits in this backfield in this matchup against the Jets?
- [37:39]
Fitz Morris
I don't think it's going to be a Rico takeover. He's been terrific the last two weeks, but he had really favorable matchups against the Dolphins and Cowboys and there's just, there's no way the Panthers are kicking Chuba Hubbard to the curb after giving him that big contract extension in the off season. And some of Dave Kanellis has been pretty coy about how he's going to use these guys, but he has said that he's going to use both guys. So I expect it to be a split backfield. Right now I've got rico tentatively ranked RB20 for this week and Chuba RB29 collectively, that's probably a little too high for both guys. So I might have to reevaluate that a little bit. But I think Rico is more in still startable territory and Chuba is kind.
- [38:23]
Ryan Wormley
Of fringy fantasy pro as an are they playing tool. It gives Shuba Hubbard a 68% chance to play. That's just through Thursday practice reports, so that might look even stronger after we see whatever happens here on Friday. So keep an eye on that. But we are anticipating him playing as of the Thursday practice report. Debro. So what do you think this usage is going to look like in the backfield? I mean, Dowdle, he, he is coming off of an insane two game stretch, right? So like it feels like, like if it was just one game, I'd be more like, okay, there is a fluke. But like back to back, I know it was against, you know, very take advantage of a bull run defenses. I know that's not really a phrase, but he still did what you should do against those, those types of run defenses and looked amazing. So the fact that it's back to back is why I think I and others are like, even more like, okay, like, are they really gonna put this, you know, toothpaste back in the tube here?
- [39:16]
Debro
Yeah, I think it's gonna be a mess. I was fighting with Joey on shows earlier this week about like he was all in on Rico and I was like, man, I just, I think Chuba's not gonna go away, dude. Like, I think Rico is going to be the leader of the backfield this week. Part of that's Chuba Hubbard's health. Part of it is the fact that, and I'm not giving Rico like he has the ability he could take over the backfield, but he's going to have to continue to outplay Chuba Hubbard, which honestly this year I don't know if Chuba's been dealing with an injury the entirety of the season or what's been going on, but like on the early downs, he's not been anywhere close to the player that he was last year. Like, if I were to ask you guys, how many tackles do you think Chuba Hubbard has broken? Fitz on 53 carries. How many tackles do you think Chuba Hubbard has broken and how many explosive runs do you think he has this season?
- [40:04]
Fitz Morris
53 carries, five tackles, two explosives.
- [40:09]
Debro
So for everybody out there, if our answers are anything above zero for both of these categories, we're all wrong. He has zero explosive runs. He has not broken a single tackle and I think that ineffectiveness to this point of the season and I I get it's only 53 carries. It's a decent sized sample like even like a decent workload. You're talking about three, four games of for a running back in a lot of different sense. Like that's not great. So like with that added on top of what Rico has done in the last two weeks, I think it gives Rico dowdle or Runway to take over the backfield. Is that going to happen this week? No, it's probably going to be 50, 50 maybe 6040 usage for RICO. I think he might take be the passing down back to over Chuba Hubbard. So both these guys like I'm with Fitzy. I think Rico's like a low end RB2. Hubbard's like a RB3 flex play and with versus most different options. You're probably setting Hubbard depending on what your roster looks like.
- [41:09]
Ryan Wormley
I don't think I actually said this but Rico just so everybody knows in the consensus rankings is RB 14 in half people.
- [41:15]
Debro
That's too high. That's too aggressive, man. Not if Hubbard's active. I can't do that.
- [41:19]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, Hubbard. Oh he's down at RB43. I think that's probably because some people don't have.
- [41:24]
Debro
Yeah, I think he's not gonna play.
- [41:25]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah. All right. Well if you are wondering what to do with your team, you can let Autopilot manage your fantasy football lineup automatically so you never have to worry about last minute changes. Auto swap inactive players and ensure your lineup is always optimized even when you can't be online. Take control with the flexibility to approve lineup changes via email or let Autopilot handle everything. Stay ahead with my playbook. Autopilot available now for Fantasy Pros Premium subscribers@FantasyPros.com MyPlayBook or on the Fantasy Pros app try Premium for free right now by claiming your three day trial of Fantasy Pros Premium at FantasyPros.com Premium. All right, last game in the early window slate here. Patriots at Titans d'. Ro. I'll start with you on this one. Rank Tony Pollard, Ramandre Stevenson and Trevion Henderson against each other this week. Yes, I know how gross that is of what I am asking but they're all kind of in a similar range so. So I wanted to put the three of them kind of head to head to head. Rank Stevenson, Pollard and Henderson.
- [42:26]
Debro
I'm gonna put both the New England backs at the top of the mountain here. I'm gonna go Randre Trayvon and Watch for Andre fumble again. And this looks terrible, but I'm putting Ramandre because dude, Mike Vle does not want to give Trayvon Henderson the work. He just doesn't like Randra put the ball on the turf. And then you see Varel out there in the media talking about, well, it's not really Ramandre's fault for the fumbles. It's kind of a whole team team thing. Well, not really, but okay, Mike, well, we'll go with that. So I think given the matchup, Tennessee can't stop the run. I think New England could run it down their throat if they want to. So Ramon Dre's one tray beyonds two. I'm actually going to put Taje Spears into this conversation at 3 instead of Tony Pollard because the matchup on the ground is horrible for the Tennessee Titans this week. I think they're going to be playing from behind. Tajie Spears actually took over the passing down role in the offense last week and it's actually a pretty decent matchup for receiving backs. So I think, look, I'm not telling people if you got Pollard, you're playing Spears over him. You probably don't have both of those. But I think Spears is a decent flex option PPR leagues this week. So Pollard unfortunately is fourth here.
- [43:32]
Ryan Wormley
Stevenson, Pollard and Henderson are all ranked between RB26 and RB32, which is why I kept them together. Spears is down at RB39, but that's interesting that you would throw him up there even ahead of Pollard. Fitz, what do you think about that? Would you still go those those three names I gave as the top three or would you put Spears ahead of Pollard?
- [43:49]
Fitz Morris
I've got Spears last of all these guys. As of right now, I'm not sure if that's right. Right now I've got Ramondre, RB27, Pollard, RB30, Henderson, RB31. I'm probably going to flip flop. Henderson and Pollard obviously roll is a question with all of these guys and if you play Ramon Ray there is the fear that he's one fumble away from a benching and yet he's facing a Titans defense that has allowed A League high nine touchdown runs to running backs and is giving up 4.7 yards per carry to running backs and and ranks 27th in DVOA against the run. So the matchup is good man. Henderson, it's not so much the usage. Well, it's that too. But man, when he, when you give him the ball, I wish they weren't slamming him up the middle so much and that like, next gen chart of his usage that was making the rounds on Twitter this week, where it's just all between the tackles. This guy's so good in space. I wish they would just try to use him wide and on some outside stuff. So, yeah, Mond is probably the guy I feel most comfortable with this week, man.
- [44:56]
Ryan Wormley
I mean, e. Even, I know it's a good matchup. But like, even if we were to concede that like, Ramandre will be the lead back for the Patriots this week. Cause that's what it's been like. He's only gotten over five fantasy points and half PPR scoring twice this season. I, I, it just like it feels like the floor is not very high. And I, I'm also not even really sure what the ceiling is given what we've seen out of him this year. I mean, unless he has a week where he gets two touchdowns like he did in Week 5. But even then he only had 14 rushing yards, so it didn't, you know, it only led to him being RB15 on the, on the week. You know, that week two game against Miami, which was the best run def. You know, the best matchup he's had this year is the time where he had a big game, but even then it wasn't on the ground. It was, you know, because he had 88 yards through the air. So, yeah, just, I mean, it's, it's gross. But of course, all these names are gross. That's why I put them together. So it's not, it's not a group of names that I want to be really particularly involved in if I can help it at all. And it, you know, feels like you guys largely agree with that.
- [45:58]
Debro
Yeah, I mean, it's, I think Radre can get it done. It's just the matchup like Fitzy talked about. Tennessee can't stop anybody. I think that. And the other thing about it is the Patriots are going to play with a lead in this game. Yeah. Like, I don't think they're going to play with their food. I think they're going to sit here and put the gas down and absolutely steamroll the Titans this week, or they should. So.
- [46:17]
Ryan Wormley
Well, is going to want to.
- [46:20]
Debro
Yeah.
- [46:20]
Ryan Wormley
Well.
- [46:20]
Debro
And to that point, I think you're going to see a lot of fourth quarter runs, like whether it's Ramondre or whether it's Henderson Salt and away the clock and stuff like that, so he can, you know, pile up the volume.
- [46:31]
Ryan Wormley
Let's go to the late afternoon slate here. Giants at Broncos JK Dobbins and Cam Scatter Boo are back to back in our staff running back rankings for week seven. Make the case for one or the other in this matchup. Fitz, I will start with you. And by the way, the rankings in consensus rankings camp scatterboo is RB17, JK Dobbins RB18. So that's the range we're in.
- [46:53]
Fitz Morris
Yeah, I have no issues with dobbins. He's averaging 15 2.2 carries and 73.7 rushing yards a game. 4.9 yards per carry. Great matchup against the Giants Run d that ranks 31st in DVOA. I've already bet the under. Excuse me, the over on 57 and a half rushing yards for Dobbins. But I have Scatterboo ranked RB13, Dobbins RB18. Scatter Boo is just special man and what choice do the Giants have but to lean on him hard this week when you've got a rookie quarterback going up against the Denver Run D or the Denver pass defense with Jackson darts best receiver being Wandell Robinson. You know, Scatter Boo is getting at least 20 touches this week and he catches passes. Four catches a game over the last four weeks. Dobbins this five catches in five games.
- [47:41]
Ryan Wormley
What do you think, Debra?
- [47:43]
Debro
Yeah, I mean I'm taking Dobbins in this only because the rushing matchup is so freaking good. I've got him at RB15, I've got scatter boo at RB19. Like but the the point of this is like I'm not dropping Scatter Boo too far because of the past game utility. I just worry about how well and effective the Giants are going to be able to move the ball just in general in this game. Considering how good the Broncos defense is, I think Scatter Boo is still going to flirt with like 20 plus opportunities in this game. I just don't know if he's going to be able to get into get into the end zone in this one. So Dobbins has been very, very one dimensional. But this is a good matchup for, you know, if he's making all of his fantasy production on the early downs because he's not getting any pass game utility. He's not. This is a good game for him to be able to do that considering the Giants are giving him the 11th most rushing arts and they're not able to attack anybody tackle anybody. They got the fifth highest missed tackle rate. So Dobbins should be able to, you know, crack a hundred rushing yards and get into the end zone at least once in this game.
- [48:39]
Ryan Wormley
Sorry, where did you say you have them ranked specifically?
- [48:42]
Debro
Dobbins RB15 Cam Scatter Boo RB19.
- [48:46]
Ryan Wormley
Okay, so both in the teens but a few spots higher on Dobbins. What's, what's the spread in this game? I'm pulling it up here. Hard Rock that has it as seven points. Denver's lane.
- [48:57]
Debro
Okay.
- [48:59]
Ryan Wormley
So that I mean would suggest that they're going to have a lead.
- [49:02]
Debro
I think Denver can cover that and Giants have been really feisty.
- [49:06]
Ryan Wormley
Run Dobbins. Yeah. What do you think about that line fits seven points for.
- [49:11]
Fitz Morris
For Denver reluctant to touch it. I kind of think I'm in a couple pools where I'm forced to pick games against the spread. I think I have Denver.
- [49:22]
Ryan Wormley
Okay, let's go to Colts at Chargers do you expect Kamani Vidal to be the clear RB1 in Los Angeles again this week or will the roles look different with him and Hassan Haskins against the Colts? Dbro, how confident are you that what we saw in week six will be what we see in week seven? Or is this going to be a week to week matchup dependent usage situation?
- [49:41]
Debro
This Kamani Vidal is backfield. I'm not worried about it. All the Hassan Haskins stuff was a lot of just narrative street, oh it's Harbaugh's guy, blah blah blah. Like Kamani played freaking 67% of the snaps. He got almost all the red zone work. Also had a 43% route share. The matchup is good versus Indy. Like they're giving up the six highest yards after Khan contact per attempt. Excuse me, yards before contact per attempt and the fifth highest rushing success rate to zone run. So I mean Kamani, I've got him ranked. Where are you at Commandee Ball RB17 this week. So yeah I think it's his backfield still.
- [50:20]
Ryan Wormley
Do you. I mean there was some reporting about Haskins being the start. It wasn't just like narrative.
- [50:24]
Debro
Yeah, we also got the same reporting that Zay Flowers is going to be limited last week insiders account.
- [50:28]
Ryan Wormley
It wasn't accurate accurate reporting but it was reported.
- [50:30]
Debro
Yeah, I was gonna say it's reporting not accurate, but it was reporting.
- [50:36]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, what do you think is Vidal, is this just his backfield and it's as simple as that or do you see that there? Do you see a world where there is a different usage here week to week and it gets to be frustrating for managers.
- [50:47]
Fitz Morris
I think it's more the same. Videl just has the more versatile, well rounded skill set and I think he's just the better player if you have to start Haskins. You're basically just praying that they have one or two goal line situations and Haskins is the guy who's in there.
- [51:01]
Debro
Okay.
- [51:02]
Ryan Wormley
We went really quick on that game. So let me ask you guys about this spread, too. Chargers minus two at home. What do you think about that, either of you?
- [51:10]
Debro
I think the Colts win this game.
- [51:13]
Fitz Morris
I do. Not touching it.
- [51:15]
Debro
I'm not touching. I'm not touching. If I had to pick one, then I would say the Colts win, but I don't. I don't want to bet it.
- [51:20]
Ryan Wormley
What about the. The total? I'm not sure what it is. It's loading for me here. My Internet's running slow today. Sorry for that.
- [51:28]
Debro
Actually, I'll take the over on it. I'm guessing it's probably okay.
- [51:32]
Ryan Wormley
47 and a half.
- [51:33]
Debro
Yeah, that's that. I was gonna guess 47 and a half. Yeah, like, I'll take the over. I think both the teams could put up points here.
- [51:39]
Ryan Wormley
Do you like the over?
- [51:40]
Fitz Morris
Yeah.
- [51:41]
Ryan Wormley
Agreed. Cool. All right.
- [51:43]
Debro
Wild this week. Go ahead. Sorry.
- [51:45]
Ryan Wormley
No, no, you're good. You're good. If you want a chance to win a signed AJ Brown Eagles jersey for free courtesy of our friends@pristineauction.com all you need to do is head to fantasypros.com contest, complete the form and either download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review for the podcast, or follow us on x Instagram or TikTok antasyprose. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive. We will be announcing a winner on the podcast near the beginning of next month. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up. And to claim your prize. How about packers at Cardinals? Fitz, I'll start with you here. What did you think of Matthew Golden's usage last week as a rookie coming off the bye week? That's kind of a narrative thing that we like to look at, you know, year over year as these rookies coming off their buy. What did you think of his usage? Are you interested in starting him against Arizona this week?
- [52:35]
Fitz Morris
It was nice to see his snapshare tick up a little bit. It was at 69% last week. It was at 59% in Green Bay's last game before the buy. Still not full time though. And Jordan Love is inevitably going to spread the ball around. And maybe there's an outside chance Christian Watson comes back this week. Probably not, but he has been practicing on a limited basis. Golden still only had five targets last week and he's averaging 3.8 targets a game. On the bright side though, he's been really efficient with the targets. He's averaging 15.1 yards per catch, 11.2 yards per target, 1.78 yards per outrun. Those are good numbers. So I think he's a playable Wide Receiver 3, but it could be boom bossed.
- [53:18]
Ryan Wormley
Deborah, how do you see it with, you know, with what we saw with Golden? I mean it was the most fantasy points he scored this season. That's, you know, not that high a bar to clear given how his first month went. But coming out of the buy, would you think.
- [53:32]
Debro
I mean, I think it's going to be just still the packers with their wide receiver by committee approach and it's going to get even muddier when Watson gets on the field. But I think it's going to be a good matchup for golden this week. I mean, he's been their guy since becoming a full time player. Well, I say a full time player like last week, full time in the, in the Green Bay passing attack outside of like Romeo Dobbs and Tucker Kraft means you get a 62% route share like he got last week. But he's been there, got their go to against too high. And that's what I wanted to lean on for golden this week. Arizona's seventh highest too high rate. Golden since week four has a 27% target per route run rate, 4.11 yards per route run against too high. So I think Golden's gonna have a good day. Like, I mean right now, Hard Rock bed has his receiving yardage line at 56 and a half. Kind of feeling the over boys.
- [54:20]
Ryan Wormley
Where is he ranked for you? D. Ro he's, he's 33 in consensus. Is that too high, too low?
- [54:25]
Debro
I'm pretty close to consensus. Like I have him as a wide receiver 3. I've got him at wide receiver 30 right now. Like him and Romeo Dobbs right next to each other. Wide receiver 29, wide receiver 30. Both are wide receiver threes this week.
- [54:36]
Ryan Wormley
Fits some of the names that golden is around. Jordan Addison, Cooper Cup, Sterling Shepherd, Trey Tucker, Mike Evans, any of those names. Like does that feel like the right range?
- [54:49]
Fitz Morris
Yeah, I've got him wide receiver 34. So it does feel like the right neighborhood.
- [54:53]
Ryan Wormley
Okay, last game in the late afternoon slate here. Commanders at Cowboys. Now, initially when I put this together, it had seemed based on reporting that Terry McLaren would be back. I haven't checked this morning if there's been any additional updates. But obviously he didn't. He was downgraded to not participating in practice on Thursday. So that looks worse. I was originally gonna ask you guys to predict the stat lines for both CD Lamb and Terry McLaren. Just kind of one receiver on either side returning this game. Let's focus on Lamb for now. Dbra, what do you expect out of CD Lamb in his return to the field? Because he's telling us that he's, you know, full go, no limitations, he's ready to rock.
- [55:29]
Fitz Morris
I.
- [55:30]
Debro
You're gonna see normal CD Lamb usage. Like he's probably gonna get nine plus targets. He's probably gonna flirt with 80 plus receiving yards and let's go. So. And I'm with you on that worm. Like with McLaren. I. I don't think we see McLaren this week, like midweek downgrade. He goes from limited to DMP on Thursday. It's. It's not good, man. I don't think you rush this guy back. I think he's out this week.
- [55:51]
Ryan Wormley
So then let me ask you this D. RO before I toss it to Fitz. Predict predicted stat line for Debo Samuel. And now he's got his own, you know, injury question mark. But let's assume he plays for the sake of this argument. What would you predict his stat line to look like in a very, you know, enticing matchup with McLaren? Not likely. Not on the field.
- [56:06]
Debro
I mean it. It would all assuming Debo is a full go and he's gonna have his normal effectiveness because he's also dealing with his own things with a heel injury and he's got back to back DMPs. But I think he definitely plays. I. Dude, he's going to get a crap ton of usage. Dallas's secondary is not good. They're too high heavy. So the COVID structure works out well for Debo. I think you're probably going to see like probably one to two carries, probably in the teens for rushing yards. He probably hits like 80, 70 to 80 receiving arts, gets in the in the end zone, flirts with wide receiver.
- [56:39]
Ryan Wormley
One value if he were to not play because again, like he didn't practice Thursday either. Would you guys knock down Jaden Daniels, who is currently consensus QB1 for the week in ECR now that matchup's awesome and obviously he can run to account for some of those fantasy points. But if he's missing both McLaurin and Samuel Fitz, would you have. Would you knock down Daniels?
- [57:03]
Fitz Morris
I'm only knocking him down from QB1, where I have him right now, to QB2 behind Patrick Mahomes.
- [57:09]
Debro
Yeah, that's where I have him ranked too. I'm not with ECR with him at one. I got Mahomes at one.
- [57:14]
Ryan Wormley
Okay. So Fitz, what do you think about CD Lamb's return? Just in general, like what that stat line is going to look like and then also assuming he plays, which is still questionable. Debo Samuel, what do you think his stat line will look like?
- [57:24]
Fitz Morris
Probably like 770 for. For Debo, seven for 70, maybe a touchdown. And for Lamb, I've like maybe six for 80 and a touchdown. I'm excited about this game though. It's got a Vegas total of I believe 54 and a half. Commander's Cowboys is one of the funnest games on a very fun slate to this point.
- [57:45]
Debro
We didn't talk about him. Bet the earth's overs. This a really good matchup for Earth. I mean, and if Debo is banged up, McLaurin's out. I know our earth wasn't part of this, but Ertz is going to be heavily targeted. He needs to be a tight end one in ranks this week.
- [57:58]
Ryan Wormley
Are you guys knocking Pickens at all? He's been so good with Lamb out, but with Lamb returning, no, he's.
- [58:03]
Debro
He's going to be the T. Higgins to CD Lambs. Jamar Chase, man, he's still going to.
- [58:07]
Fitz Morris
Be freaking good a little bit for me is more of a low end wide receiver one, I think.
- [58:13]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, it is. 54 and a half fits. Is that the highest of the year? I can't like, I don't, I don't even think Ravens, Bills that total is that high. Wow.
- [58:22]
Debro
Wow.
- [58:23]
Ryan Wormley
I don't, I don't recall one that was higher. If there was. I'm forgetting.
- [58:27]
Debro
No, I think like one of the Lions games got into the 52s and stuff like that. I haven't seen 54 and a half.
- [58:32]
Ryan Wormley
I mean, is, is there.
- [58:33]
Debro
I'm not saying it's wrong.
- [58:34]
Ryan Wormley
Is there a more exciting like matchup just in terms of like what Vegas is saying, than 54 and a half total? And it's minus one is the spread like that's. That combo is just so, so exciting. So I, I'm really excited for.
- [58:49]
Debro
Don't have defense, don't care.
- [58:50]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, yeah, yeah. We're, we're. We're all in on it. So let's go to Sunday night football here. Falcons at 49ers. Besides the big obvious four Bijan McCaffrey, Kittle, who looks like he's returning in London, which player in this game at any position do you most want to start this week. Fitz, I'll start with you.
- [59:09]
Fitz Morris
I guess Kendrick Bourne just because he's had such nice chemistry with Mac Jones. But the return of George Kittle complicates the target outlook for Bourne. And maybe there's still an outside chance that Ricky Pearsall comes back. Probably not. But if he did, it would be hard to play Bourne. Falcons pass defense is allowing 140 passing yards a game. Atlanta has been really tough against the pass. I don't really want to play Mac Jones. I guess you could play Kyle Pitts. I remember ranked as like a high end, wide tight end too. And maybe could play Tyler Algier against a middling banged up 49er defense. Even with Bijan around, Algeria's gotten double digit carries in four of Atlanta's five games this year.
- [59:51]
Ryan Wormley
I like the way you phrased it on Pitts. I guess you could play Kyle Pitts. That feels as bad as strongly as you can. You can be on pits at this point. Yeah like Bijan McCaffrey kid online and they're all top five options of their position. Besides them, who are you interested in starting in in this game?
- [60:08]
Debro
So I, I thought about the Kendrick Bourne angle. Fitz, he's not wrong with that. He's definitely the one that I think is low hanging fruit and who should lead this conversation. But I'll go Tyler Algier. I mean dude his splits and I think there's a real chance that the Falcons win this game. But that's what you're telling yourself when you flex Tyler Algier because his splits and wins and losses have been monstrous. In the Falcons WINS he's getting 14.6 touches. He's got 53 or 56.3 total yards per game and three touchdowns in those three games. Two losses. Dude is averaging six touches and 14 total scoreless yards per game. And the matchup like Fitz alluded to here, you can run on the 49ers. They're giving it the six highest missed tackle rate, 10th most yards after contact for attempt. Like so Tyler Algier is the guy. Like look running back options are nasty this week. Like outside of like the top guys you're picking between I don't know who I'm going to play when blah blah like Tyler Algier is definitely worth the flex this week. And some people in deeper leagues could be like crap, am I having to play this dude in my RB2 spot? But in their wins that's what he's producing.
- [61:15]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, I was surprised that he's ranked RB40 in consensus this week. I thought he'd be in the 30s. It's not that it's that far off, but I thought he'd be a little bit higher. I mean especially just think about like San Francisco. Like Debra, what do you think about this defense? Like with Fred Warner now out for the season, like what kind of resistance they're going to give. I mean I, I feel like the Falcons can run in this game and they're going to run with more than just Bijan. Even as good as Bijan is. Like, I am starting out actually in a league where I have a lot of injuries. I am starting Algier as a flex in a league where I am also starting Bijan. I have. I'm gonna have them both in my lineup in one of my leagues this week.
- [61:48]
Debro
Like straight, straight, straight up question here guys. Who do you feel better about playing? Tyre Alger or freaking Isaiah Pacheco? I mean seriously.
- [61:58]
Fitz Morris
Yeah, I've got Pacheco ranked higher, but it's a good point.
- [62:02]
Ryan Wormley
Pacheco's up at RB28 by the way.
- [62:05]
Debro
So actually does not want to throw the ball on an offense that's getting their wide receiver one back. Like.
- [62:11]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah.
- [62:12]
Debro
Nah, I don't know man.
- [62:14]
Ryan Wormley
Let's go to the Monday Night Football. Another double header. I will be happy when these are done. First game in the doubleheader. Buccaneers at Lions. What are you guys doing with the Tampa Bay receiving room after the latest injury to that room and this one of course coming to Emeka Egbuca. D Ro. What are you doing with this, this group of pass catchers?
- [62:36]
Debro
I. I mean, good lord, man, it. It's a mess. Cause we don't know if Mike Evans is gonna play. I kind of lean that he's gonna be out, but I mean with Chris Godwin out, a Mecca Buka is not going to play. You're Shepherd's gonna be a full time receiver. Tess Johnson's probably gonna be a full. I mean he's gonna be a full time receiver. Mike Evans is just a question of like, does Cameron Johnson like enter the fray? So if you got Mike Evans, you're probably waiting. Like you need to earmark Cameron Johnson on the waiver wire. Cause if, if Evans is out, that's probably your only desperation play to back him up this week. But like these guys are low in flex plays. Like Shepherd's gonna do what he's done, but like he's not getting even. Like when they've had guys missing, he doesn't get a high End percent share I I if I'm going with anybody out of this passing attack with the latest injuries, it's probably Kate Otten. Only because we've seen his usage bump over the last two games. He's gotten actually way more usage 19 target share Detroit has been a little bit more vulnerable to tight ends, so I'd say if I'm going to bump anybody up, it's probably Kate Otten. A lot of these guys, I don't want to play them. But you might get stuck playing them. Depending. Depending on if you're waiting for Mike Evans or other flex options this week.
- [63:50]
Ryan Wormley
Would you rather Debro just start one of the guys you already have on your bench on Sunday or would you rather try and get a backup option that who's playing on Monday to be a, you know, an emergency situation for you if, if Mike Evans doesn't play?
- [64:05]
Debro
I mean, dude, if you got to take it down, if you have Mike Evans on your team, you got to take it down to the wire because if he does play the matchup, the total, all that kind of stuff lines up. You got to think he's close to full time time player or at least he's on the field when they're throwing the ball. So I would hold out hope again, like drop your kicker, pick up Cameron Johnson like because he's the guy that probably is the only one left on waivers at this point. But yeah, like if you got Evans, you got to take it down to the wire because you're not going to sit him and then he goes off and he has like 100 receiving yards and a touchdown or two and you're hating life.
- [64:36]
Ryan Wormley
Fitz, what are you doing with this receiving room? I feel like Igbuka is like the, it was for me it, I know there's been a lot of injuries and there have been more impactful injuries, but it's the one that was the most emotionally like, come on. Another one like it was crushing to see a book who get hurt and he's just been so fun and exciting as a rookie and you know, I just, it was, it, it hurt my heart to see him get hurt and, and now it makes it really challenging in this receiving room.
- [65:00]
Fitz Morris
Hopefully we have definitive news on Mike Evans by Sunday and lineup block time if Evans plays. I'm starting Evans and doing my best to avoid everyone else. I don't want to guess how targets are going to be split between Sterling Shepard, Tez Johnson, Cameron Johnson, Kate Otten. If Evans is out, Otten is the guy I'm most interested in because whenever the Tampa Bay receiving corps really thinned out, Otten usually gets a usage spike. And on the bright side, if you do have to play any of these peripheral guys, the Lions secondary is an absolute mess right now. Cornerbacks Terry and Arnold and DJ Reed are probably both going to be out. Safety Brian Branch suspended for slugging JuJu Smith Schuster in the moments after that Lions Chiefs game last week. Safety Kirby Joseph, banged up might not play. So if you have to play any of the other Buccaneers pass catchers, maybe they can take advantage of easier coverage matchups than they normally get with a fully healthy unsuspended lion secondary.
- [66:02]
Ryan Wormley
Last game here, the late game in the doubleheader. We got another 10 o' clock eastern kickoff here. Texans that Seahawks. The last time we saw Houston they were destroying a beat up Ravens defense. Coming off that strong game and the buy what are your expectations for this offense against a much better defense, although one with its own, you know some injury question marks in Seattle here Fitz.
- [66:25]
Fitz Morris
I have immense respect for this Seattle defense and for defensive mastermind Mike McDonald. Seahawks are fourth in defensive DVOA, second against the run, ninth against the pass and they have been banged up in the secondary but they are maybe getting some or possibly all of their injured guys back. Cornerback Devon Witherspoon and safety Julian Love got in limited practice this Thursday. Cornerback Reek Wolin, he had a concussion. He was out last week. He had I believe a full practice Thursday and games in Seattle. Tough place for visitors to play. I really only want to play Nico Collins on the Houston side. Don't really want to play CJ Stroud against a really dangerous Seattle pass rush that just sacked Trevor Lawrence seven times and Stroud plays by a really bad offensive line and I don't want to play Woody Marks or Nick Chubb. Two guys in a split backfield going against a good run defense. So other than Nico Collins, yeah, I'm not real excited.
- [67:22]
Ryan Wormley
What are your expectations? Zero. Because I know on the Thursday show Jake had CJ Stroud as sort of his like plant your flag player that he was actually really convicted on. Starting this week, Fitz is trying to get away from him. What do you think about Strat? And then that's just the offense in general matching up with Seattle so.
- [67:39]
Debro
It fits. Fitz lays out a lot of really good points. Like this defense has been down. A lot of players are getting a lot of players back. I guess my only pushback about that is Houston. If they want to move the ball in this game, they're going to have to pass because they're not running the ball. They're not going to get any ground on the ground. They're not like Seattle's run defense has been and continues to be elite. So they're going to move the ball. It's going to have to be through the air. So that's one of the reasons why I'm not saying I'm immensely high on CJ Stroud. I think the volatility is definitely there snap to snap, because you don't know what you're going to get from him or the Houston offensive line. But I think out of necessity the Texans are going to have to throw the freaking ball. And so you look at the coverage matchups like it's pretty good for Christian Kirk. Seattle's given up and I know Witherspoon's injury has helped that, but they have given up production to slot wide receivers. Seattle has been, I mean a pretty good matchup for opposing tight ends and receiving backs. So like, while I'm not running out to play Woody Marks, I think if he is going to be the guy preferred on passing downs, he can at least be flex worthy in PPR formats. And Dalton Schultz is like inner streamer territory considering Seattle's given up the six most schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends. So like I'm not going out there and telling everybody go look like just bet all the overs for Houston and their receivers and stuff like that. But I think out of necessity Houston is going to have to throw the ball in this game.
- [69:06]
Ryan Wormley
We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Best of luck to everybody here in Week seven For Debro and Fitz, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
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- [71:49]
Ryan Wormley
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