FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: The Extra Point: Useful Advanced Stats, Trade Proposals, and Tough Sit/Start Decisions (Ep. 1721)
Date: September 20, 2025
Hosts: Chris Welsh, Pat Fitzmaurice (subbing for Andrew Erickson)

Brief Overview

This episode of the FantasyPros "Extra Point" live Discord show dives deep into audience-driven questions focused on tough start/sit dilemmas, advanced stats for actionable player analysis, and trade strategies. Hosts Chris Welsh and Pat Fitzmaurice field a barrage of live listener queries covering rest-of-season player outlooks, advanced data breakdowns, and situational advice for winning in various league formats.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Discord Community and Show Format

• The episode is driven entirely by live listener/caller questions.
• Pat Fitzmaurice subs in for Andrew Erickson, bringing his signature analysis and advanced stats focus.
• Active encouragement for listeners to join the FantasyPros Discord community for more real-time expert access.
  [02:00]

2. Trade and Start/Sit Advice

Wide Receiver Dilemmas

• Metcalf vs. Higgins (with Jake Browning at QB):

  • Pat leans Metcalf over Higgins this week due to matchup concerns and Jake Browning’s limitations.
    “I would start Metcalf there and I think I would also start London, AJ Brown and Ladd.” — Pat [04:07]
  • The Vikings’ defense is anticipated to scheme heavily against Browning, increasing risk for Bengals’ WRs.

• Bench Considerations for Josh Downs, Troy Franklin, Elijiah Io Manor:

  • Pat prefers holding Franklin and Io Manor over Downs due to capped upside and usage.
    “Downs...I just don’t think there is huge upside...I just don’t see when you’re ever going to feel good about starting him.” — Pat [18:09]

Running Back Start/Sit and Trade Targets

• Trayvon Henderson vs. Cam Scatteboo:

  • Both hosts lean Trayvon for higher upside and great matchup versus the struggling Steelers run D.
    “I just think it’s a better spot for Henderson.” — Pat [06:34]

• Bill Krosky Merritt vs. Quinshon Judkins (PPR):

  • Both agree Judkins is the more dynamic playmaker, especially after discussing touch share and high missed tackle rates, despite a tough matchup.
  • Pat highlights that Judkins offers more in full PPR because of receiving involvement compared to Krosky Merritt. “Format favors Quinshon a little bit, man. I’d probably take Quinshon.” — Pat [12:46]
  • Emphasis on looking for hidden upside, paths to increased usage, and monitoring injury reports.

General Roster Building

• 10 vs. 12 Team Lineup Grades:

  • Pat assigns a C grade for a sample 10-team roster anchored by Jared Goff, Etienne, Lamb, and Zay Flowers, advising patience and waiver wire aggression for improvement.
    [09:03–09:22]

• Running Back Room (Chase Brown, Pollard, Warren, etc.):

  • Commends the listener’s depth and recommends exploring 2-for-1 deals to consolidate if possible. “Maybe if there’s anyone who’s really grossly thin at RB you could approach with a two-for-one.” — Pat [24:11]

3. Advanced Stats in Practice

Identifying Stud vs. Fluke Performances

• Both hosts emphasize first-read share, air yard share, target percentage, snap rate, and broken tackles as the most actionable advanced stats—especially early in the season when sample sizes are small.

  • Chris: “I get pretty hyper-focused right now on first read...target percentage...air yard shares...snap rate, broken tackles, etc.” [37:43]
  • Pat: “If you look at the usage stats, you almost don’t need to look at the surface stats to see who you should be playing.” — Pat [39:03]

• Example: Rome Odunze’s breakout supported by top-6 air yard share, healthy target percentages, high design percentage, and consistent first-reads.

  • “He is sixth in air yard share...28% target share...33% first read share...these are things that make us really like buy into this stuff.” — Chris [40:27]

Volatility Context

• Acknowledgement that elite players (e.g., Jamar Chase, Cortland Sutton) have boom/bust stretches and season-long stats disguise weekly inconsistency.
  • “It’s all over the place, even for the great players…fantasy football is crazy, man.” — Pat [40:27]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Advanced Usage Stats:

  • “Who’s just doing calisthenics and who’s actually drawing throws…those are things that make us really like buy into this stuff.” — Pat [39:04]; Chris [43:01]

• On Wide Receiver Priority:

  • “I’d like to ride the wave with those two youngsters [Franklin and Io Manor]...I just think the upside for Downs is really capped.” — Pat [20:00]

• On Judkins vs. Krosky Merritt:

  • "Judkins looks like the best...five missed tackles forced on 10 carries, he looks great, but it’s not a great matchup." — Pat [12:46]

• On Rome Odunze’s Breakout:

  • "He is sixth in air yard share in the NFL right now, 46.4%. Absolutely ridiculous." — Chris [40:27]

• On Trade Value and RB Consolidation:

  • “Maybe if there’s anyone who’s really grossly thin at running back...approach someone with a two-for-one trade.” — Pat [24:11]

• On Start/Sit with Marginal WRs:

  • “If the Browns just let Joe Flacco drop back 45 times against Micah Parsons...that’s just a recipe for disaster…I’m feeling it with Quinshon.” — Pat [12:46]

• On Volatility of Studs:

  • “In the offseason, we look at last year’s stats and think production is going to be consistent…no, it’s all over the place.” — Pat [40:27]

Important Timestamps

• Pat joins & Discord show explained: [00:35–02:30]
• First RB/WR question (Metcalf vs Higgins, etc.): [03:03–05:10]
• Henderson vs. Scatteboo RB2 debate: [05:57–07:19]
• Judkins vs. Krosky Merritt RB2 debate: [10:13–13:56]
• Advanced Stats on WRs (Odunze example): [37:21–43:52]
• Roster review & trade approach deep dive: [46:51–48:53]
• Lightning round & last trade/sit/start queries: [55:02–66:15]

Flow & Tone

The episode is welcoming and rapid-fire, with a blend of data-rich analysis and lively interaction with listeners. Both hosts are approachable, joke freely, and balance theory questions (“are advanced stats actionable yet?”) with nuts-and-bolts lineup fixes.

Pat Fitzmaurice embodies his reputation for pragmatic, evidence-based ranking (often referencing snap share, targets, rest-of-season ranking), while Welsh pushes narrative elements (like coaching changes and quarterback shifts) with an emphasis on maximizing weekly upside and flexibility.

Quick Takeaways for Non-Listeners

• The episode is a dynamic, question-driven masterclass in lineup construction and trade negotiation, with plenty of actionable advanced stats/analytics talk.
• There’s deep-dive discussion on why certain advanced metrics (first-read %, air yards, target share) predict future success—and when NOT to overreact early.
• Aggressive, but context-sensitive, trade recommendations abound: look for two-for-one RB trades if you're deep, and have patience with volatile WRs whose usage metrics are strong.
• When in doubt, favor players with high snap rates, strong first-read shares, and growing roles—even if their box scores are uneven early.

Final Recommendation

Join the FantasyPros Discord, catch these Q&A sessions live, and tune in for advanced and actionable fantasy advice that isn’t afraid to blend numbers with nuanced context. For lineup splits and trade talks, Pat and Chris strike a perfect balance between caution and high-upside aggression—ideal for managers seeking a championship edge.