The Top NFL Draft SLEEPERS (Ep. 1990)

Summary

FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: The Top NFL Draft SLEEPERS (Ep. 1989)
Date: April 2, 2026
Hosts: Joey P. (Joe Pisapia), Derek Brown (DBRO), Andrew Erickson

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Episode Overview

This week, the FantasyPros crew goes deep on their favorite NFL Draft sleepers—lesser-known players who could make an outsized impact both in the NFL and in fantasy football. The conversation also features the big Kirk Cousins signing, potential quarterback "retreads" who could mimic Sam Darnold's Super Bowl run, and reactions to the latest NFL news, including Puka Nacua’s off-field issues. The episode is a perfect mix of sharp analysis and lively banter, especially around their prospect deep-dives, with plenty of actionable insight for dynasty and redraft fantasy football managers.

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Breaking News: Kirk Cousins to the Raiders

[03:13]

• Kirk Cousins signs with Las Vegas Raiders:
  • “Kubiak got his veteran quarterback and personally, I think this is a really good signing here.” – Joey P. [03:13]
  • Andrew sees Cousins as a smart bridge for rookie Fernando Mendoza, likely keeping the job for at least “a month or two,” while Mendoza develops. [04:28]
  • DBRO provides contract details (5 years, $172M, but functionally shorter with club options) and speculates it could allow Mendoza to sit his entire rookie year. [05:42]
  • Speculation: Are the Raiders setting up to trade down or punt at QB for a year, gathering 2027 picks? [07:12]

Notable Quote:
“Do I think it's a five year 172? No. Is it a two year deal though? This feels like a two year deal, man.” – DBRO [06:38]

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NFL News Roundup

Puka Nacua's Offseason Woes

[12:06]

• Puka Nacua enters a luxury treatment center amid off-field incidents: gestures, odd behavior, rumored substance issues.
• Concerns about contract extension negotiations and his status with the Rams. [13:26]
• Possibility: Does this force the Rams’ hand to draft another wide receiver or renew interest in trading for A.J. Brown?
• Fantasy impact debated; some see it as a contractual “win” for the Rams, others a big concern.

Notable Quote:
“Hopefully if there is a problem here, ... if he is in this luxury facility, treatment center, whatever it is, hopefully he gets it straight because I think most people really like Puka Nacua.” – Joey P. [12:27]

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Top NFL Draft Sleepers – Detailed Prospect Breakdown

[21:35]

1. Ted Hurst, WR, Georgia State

[21:35]

• “Small school guy, big time talent... He's freaking fantastic.” – DBRO [21:35]
• 6'4", 206 lbs, dominated air yards, tested as an elite athlete (9.9 RAS, 4.40 40).
• Andrew: “27 catches on targets of 20+ air yards over the last two seasons—the most in college football.” [24:12]
• Hurst chose loyalty over a move to Texas A&M—a big what-if for his draft stock.
• Both view him as an early Day 2 or late Day 3 steal with real fantasy upside.

Notable Quote:
“I think Ted Hurst, he is the number one sleeper on our list for a reason.” – Andrew Erickson [26:21]

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2. Bryce Lance, WR, North Dakota State

[27:16]

• Brother of Trey Lance. Late breakout (will be 25 as a rookie) but tore up college football with high-end deep threat and 4.34 speed.
• Andrew: “He caught 76% of his deep targets, second highest in the nation.” [28:41]
• Concerns: Late breakout age, level of competition, but exceptional catch rate and YAC.
• DBRO: Reminds him of Christian Watson—“size, speed, ... not dropping any balls and still producing yak.” [30:25]
• Projects as a third (possibly late second) round pick due to small school and older age.

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3. Cole Payton, QB, North Dakota State

[33:04]

• Toolsy, mobile lefty quarterback, but raw—needs time to develop.
• DBRO: “If this was 10 years ago, he'd be a first or second round pick.” [33:04]
• Off-the-charts advanced stats: “First in yards per attempt and first in big time throw rate among all FBS and FCS QBs with 150+ dropbacks.” [34:12]
• Erickson: Huge rushing upside—“third in the class in rushing yards, 69 per game last year.”
• Comp discussion: Ceiling is Steve McNair, floor is Jake Locker (“he’s not Tim Tebow, he’s not Taysom Hill”). – DBRO [36:26]

Notable Quotes:
“His traits are high end.” – DBRO [33:28]
“I think Cole Payton, in the right system, could develop more as a passer ... great for fantasy football.” – Andrew Erickson [37:00]

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4. Eric McAllister, WR, TCU (Original: Boise State)

[39:12]

• Top-10 advanced prospect metrics: early breakout, production as a young player at two programs; big-play (19.5 YPC) and dominator rating standout.
• Red flags: Serious off-field issue (aggravated assault with a weapon), injury concerns (recent knee scope, Jones fracture).
• Andrew: “He was competing with two NFL players for targets at TCU and had more yards as a younger prospect.”
• DBRO: “If he can keep his nose clean and be healthy, he could really, really pan out.” He’s WR11 in DBRO’s ranks.

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5. Seth McGowan, RB, Kentucky

[44:34]

• Prototype “angry runner,” elite athleticism (4.49 40), and surprisingly strong as a pass-catcher.
• Off-field baggage: dismissed from Oklahoma, larceny charge (served time).
• Both see him as this year’s “Isaiah Pacheco”/Ramondre Stevenson—a late-round back who could outproduce his draft slot.

Notable Quote:
“He runs like he is ticked off at the world, at the earth, and he's trying to make the ground pay with every blade of grass that he stomps on.” – DBRO [44:35]

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6. Eli Heidenreich, RB/WR, Navy

[48:34]

• Undersold Swiss-army knife: 4.40 40, elite receiver for Navy’s ultra-low-volume pass game (“averaged 72 receiving yards per game in a system that threw 14 times per game” – Andrew [48:55]).
• Performed only wide receiver drills at pro day—likely a slot WR in the NFL (Julian Edelman/Danny Woodhead comp).
• DBRO: “He’s going to transition and be a slot receiver in the NFL.” [51:14]

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QB “Retread” Hot Take: Who’s the Next Sam Darnold?

[52:53]

• Candidates: Daniel Jones (Colts), Kyler Murray (Vikings), Mac Jones (49ers), Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Malik Willis (Dolphins).
• Kyler Murray:
  • Joey & Andrew: Best setup for a rebound with Vikings; has “a chip on his shoulder” and Justin Jefferson as a receiver.
  • “Kyler Murray is the guy that fits that bill because I think we know the talent is there...” – Joey P. [56:57]
• Malik Willis:
  • DBRO is bullish (“He has the most raw talent out of any of these quarterbacks.” [59:17]), especially with Miami’s potential to build a young core and support him.
• Mac Jones:
  • Both see as a system-dependent game manager who could luck into a Super Bowl ring as a backup or spot starter in the right situation.

Memorable Back-and-Forth:
“Kyler Murray is the size of an 8th grader, and has played bad over the last few years at quarterback. … We’re more likely to see Kyler Murray transition and go play baseball than we are to see him win a Super Bowl.” – DBRO [58:47]
“Russell Wilson is one inch taller. He won a Super Bowl.” – Joey P. [62:47]

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Key Timestamps

• [03:13] – Kirk Cousins joins Raiders; QB transition timeline
• [12:06] – Puka Nacua’s off-season drama and ramifications
• [21:35] – Draft sleepers: Ted Hurst profile
• [27:16] – Bryce Lance sleeper assessment
• [33:04] – Cole Payton deep dive and comp debate
• [39:12] – Eric McAllister: Production vs. red flags
• [44:34] – Seth McGowan: Later-round RB dart throw
• [48:34] – Eli Heidenreich: Best-kept secret at WR/RB
• [52:53] – “Next Sam Darnold?”: QB retread Super Bowl candidate roundtable

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “27 catches on targets of 20+ air yards over the last two seasons are the most in college football...” – Andrew Erickson on Ted Hurst [24:12]
• “If he can keep his nose clean and be healthy, he could really, really pan out.” – DBRO on Eric McAllister [42:29]
• “He runs like he is ticked off at the world.” – DBRO on Seth McGowan [44:35]
• “Make an offer you can’t refuse. Yes, I know, right?” – DBRO gets the Godfather reference [12:03]
• “It’s wild.” – DBRO, on the possible unusual implications of the Kirk Cousins/Mendoza situation [10:24]

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Final Thoughts

This episode delivers a rapid-fire, in-depth look at hidden gems in the 2026 NFL Draft, addressing each player’s potential through the lens of analytics and NFL fit, with lots of dynasty/rookie draft relevance. The bonus QB debate about who could emerge as the next “retread” superstar provides a fun and thought-provoking close, reminding listeners to keep a flexible, open mind for breakouts at every position.

For more draft sleeper coverage and fantasy advice, subscribe to the Tailgate NFL channel and comment for a chance to win prizes!

Transcript

[Joey P.]

This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.

[Lori Siegel]

I'm Lori Siegel and this is Mostly Human, a tech podcast through a human lens. This week, an interview with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

[Joey P.]

I think society is going to decide

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

that creators of AI products bear a

[Joey P.]

tremendous amount of responsibility to the products we put out in the world.

[Lori Siegel]

An in depth conversation with the man who's shaping our future.

[Joey P.]

My highest order bit is to not destroy the world with AI.

[Lori Siegel]

Listen to Mostly Human on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite show.

[Joey P.]

This week with digital coupons at Safeway and Albertsons. Get beef rib roast for $7.97 per pound member price with minimum purchase of $50 or more in a single transaction. Exclusions apply. See Store for details and Broccoli, cauliflower or russet potatoes are $0.97 per pound member price limit £6 plus selected sizes and varieties of Lucerne Butter Cheese or Philadelphia cream cheese are $1.97 each member price. Visit safeway or albertsons.com for more deals and ways to save park it right here, everybody. It's time for the Tailgate. It's me, Joey P. Joe P. Zapia, and with me today, DBRO Derek Brown, the king of bros, and Andrew Erickson. And the three of us are here to talk about some prospects in the NFL draft that you may not know about, but we think are going to make an impact in the NFL world. Sooner than later, we're going to discuss those names. We're also going to talk today about some quarterbacks who are getting some second chances, maybe even third chances, some of these guys, and whether or not they be the next Sam Darnold, a quarterback as a retread who could possibly get to the Super Bowl. We'll give you those names later in the program, but before we do, there's also a big signing we're going to get to. Before all of that, of course, we like to give away some free stuff here on the channel, and we just did. Remember, I've been saying about the Saquon Barkley jersey, we're going to give that away. Well, guess what? We did. It's over. It's done. You can't win it anymore. And the big winner of the Saquon Barkley jersey is none other than. Check it out. Husky Huskies. So congratulations. Seems like the right time of year, right? March, right Yukon stuff going on. Husky Huskies, you are the big winner of the Saquon Barkley autograph jersey. Get in touch with [e-mail] with your mailing address and screenshot of your YouTube account while you're logged in. We'll get that sent out to you. And of course, when one giveaway goes away, another takes its place. We're going to be giving away. Check this out. Throwback time. George Pickens signed jersey. Pittsburgh Steelers edition. That's right. Old school. And on top of that, a hundred dollars in pristine auction credit for. So how do you win that? Subscribe to the channel. We want you to get free stuff here. So 100 bucks and a signed jersey. So even if you don't like George Pickens, who knows, give it away as a Christmas present to that Steeler fan in your life or something like that. Maybe they don't like it either.

[Andrew Erickson]

But did you think Scott Bogman wants a George Pickens Steelers jersey?

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I don't know.

[Joey P.]

You know what, It's a good question. Dbro, what do you think about that? Do you think. Do you think Bogman would accept that as a Christmas present?

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I think that's what Bachman is going to re gift to a Cowboys fan. And that's.

[Joey P.]

That's what you do.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I think he's going to take it and he's going to re gift it to somebody else like. But. But I don't even watch football. That's okay. You'll love it. You'll love it. Just hang it up on the wall. You'll love it. Conversation starter.

[Joey P.]

And that's what you do here. So how do you win? Subscribe to the new Tailgate NFL channel right now. You can find us on Tailgate NFL. Just put that into YouTube. Subscribe. Drop your comments below on this or any video. That's it. That's all you got to do. And of course, remember to ring that bell to let go dings so you never miss a show. And we can let you know if you're the winner of the pristine auction. $100 credit plus the signed George Pickens Steeler jersey. All right. We teased at the top of the show that there was some breaking news in the NFL this morning, and that is Kirk Cousins, now officially a Las Vegas Raiders. So Kubiak got his veteran quarterback and personally, I think this is a really good signing here. Kirk Cousins has seen the good, the bad and the ugly of all things in the NFL. He's had success, he's had failure. And I think for a rookie quarterback coming in with a lot of hype and a lot of attention, I think this will help him transition from that draft day all the way through. Training camp and eventually as the starter, watching a veteran quarterback prepare. And Kirk Cousins is just that, a very, I think, effective veteran guy. I know the last couple of years have been underwhelming. He's an older quarterback. This is just kind of what happens to guys in the NFL. But I will say this, I think it's smart. I think it takes a lot of pressure off the kid. Andrew, what are your thoughts on the Kirk Cousins signing and when's your best guess if you were the coach of the the Las Vegas Raiders, when you think we might see Fernando Mendoza make his debut?

[Andrew Erickson]

Well, if I was an odds maker I would set the line around nine and a half because I do think that Kirk Cousins knows this offensive system. Spent three years with Clint Kubiak in Minnesota, so he does have the leg up. And Kubiak has talked throughout this off season that we don't want to throw a rookie quarterback into the fire. So I think that as long as Kirk Cousins is playing somewhat well in this offense that he already knows and is familiar with behind an improved offensive line, he has some solid weapons between Brock Bowers, Ashton Genti. I do think that he can hold off Mendoza for, you know, a month or two. Again we'll see what the schedule shakes up. Like when do they have their bye week? So maybe that kind of also plays into when they want to get Mendoza. But I think week one, definitely it's going to be Kirk Cousins unless there's some type of injury that happens. But I agree, I think this is really good for his dynasty outlook that he is going to have some time to develop behind Kirk Cousins. So I think that the knee jerk reaction might be to move him down in rookie dynasty rankings. I think, I think this is good for him even if he doesn't start. I don't care if he starts at week one, it doesn't matter. Again, redraft. Okay, it's a different conversation but I do think that this is overall a good move and I am interested to know what the contract details are which I know DBRO has and his facial expression. I am excited to see what they are.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Dude, I, I kind of wonder like as you're walking through all of that, I don't know if we see Mendoza start this year and I'm just going to lay this out. We, we can all digest this because this hit right now as we're recording this live. So this contract, he's signing a five year, $172 million deal with the Raiders. So essentially though, Adam Shefter's put out there. It's one year guaranteed 20 mil but it also has a club option for two years at 80 million. The Falcons are going to pay $8.7 million of his salary this season and the raiders get another 1.3 million. In Las Vegas agreed to pay the quarterback a fully guaranteed 10 million dollar roster bonus on the third year of the 2027 league year. This, I mean that kind of looks like to me like do I think it's a five year 172?

[Andrew Erickson]

No.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Is it a two year deal though? This feels like a two year deal man. Like, like where Mendoza might sit his entire rookie season. Like I'm not ruling that out. So I, I'm actually going to bet the over on the Raiders win total right now at five and a half as we're doing this because this roster might not be amazing but if Kirk is under center and, and they've improved it a ton, I think they can clear five wi five and a half wins. But I'm more, I'm. I guess I'm more worried than y' all are about like we might not see Mendoza under center this year.

[Joey P.]

All right. I, I'll be really goofy here for a second. Is this some sort of precursor to maybe, I don't know, not going with the number one?

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I thought it too man.

[Joey P.]

More picks in 2027 where all of a sudden you're like maybe we like that quarterback class a little bit more. I don't know. And I don't think that's, that's a ludicrous thought process with that contract. Look, it, it, it's definitely we're paying him a lot in the first year kind of thing. But there, there's a lot of other wrinkles in that contract that De Bro just threw out to us. Andrew. That feels a little off.

[Andrew Erickson]

The jets do have some former Fernando Mendoza coaches on there.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

There we go.

[Andrew Erickson]

So I know Gino's their guy. According to Aaron Glenn, Gino's our guy. But do they now call the Raiders be like hey, like is Kirk Cousins your guy? Because we got some picks and we'll take Mendoza so.

[Joey P.]

Well, the interesting thing is let's say they did swap, right? Let's live in that fantasy land for a second. The Raiders would get a bunch of picks potentially in the first round, maybe even a 2027 first rounder as well. I Im imagine the jets would still struggle and that pick would probably net them something in the top five next year. Possibly is also even if you know, they ended up taking Mendoza, I Imagine that. Jess seems still probably going to struggle in that division. So, Debro, is there a certain, I don't know, thought process where that actually makes a little bit of sense for the Raiders, or we just. Are we just being stupid here and reading too much into some of these contract details?

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I. I don't think we're reading too much into this, because here's the thing. If. If they're giving him enough money and. And what that looks like in year two. Okay. Doesn't that kind of say he's going to start this year and if he plays good enough, he could be the starter next year? And yes, I mean, the wheels are turning. Like, does this take the Raiders off the number one overall pick? Do they trade it? Do they select somebody else at the top? Like, I don't think we can rule anything out. And the other part, the other interesting wrinkle about all of this, guys, is that for a franchise that was getting rid of Max Crosby and his contract and the salary cap hit, and everybody's like, oh, I don't know if they have enough money, all the guys they've already signed, and then they go and add more to the. To the payroll with Kirk Cousins, like, they're not worried about it. So do they keep Crosby now? Do they keep Cousins? Like, is this a way where not okay, did the Raiders trade down in this? If you were the Raiders and you said, hey, sure, Jets, y' all need a quarterback, come give us two of those. First in 27, and you can keep your second overall pick. You keep the first two picks of the draft, and we'll take your two first next year, and we'll go get our quarterback next year.

[Joey P.]

It's not impossible because you would require a lot more draft capital to move up to take your guy. Look, I. I mean, probably, probably the scenario we're looking at is the easy one, which is, yeah, Fernando Mendoza is going to have four to six weeks to kind of just figure things out. But it certainly does open the door to the conversation, I think, of if somebody should present themselves with a, hey, we love Fernando this much. And maybe you like Fernando, but maybe. Or maybe you love him, but you're not in love with him. I don't know. One of the two that maybe, just maybe, you're eliciting some offers there. Go ahead, Andrew.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

It's wild.

[Andrew Erickson]

Well, I think you. We also have to consider. I mean, Kirk Cousins has to play well.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Yeah.

[Andrew Erickson]

Because that's true. Which he hasn't done in a while. It doesn't matter. So like that's the biggest thing too. So I think that the jets making a Godfather type offer, I think was always going to be in play if, okay, like I could see that type of center, but that's really it for me. It'd have to be the jets being super, super aggressive to trade multiple first round picks to hop up to number one. And then the Raiders decide, okay, we'll kick the can down the road for 20, 27 to go with a quarterback. But other than that, I don't think that getting Kirk Cousins for whatever this deal is is going to stop them from drafting court.

[Joey P.]

I mean it's not going to stop them from a quarterback.

[Andrew Erickson]

Whether or not, I mean like this

[Joey P.]

year or next year, I think that' come out.

[Andrew Erickson]

He could come out in week one and look terrible and then immediately. What do you think? Everyone is talking about Las Vegas. We need Mendoza to play. We need Mendoza to play. So yeah, again, I, I wouldn't over analyze the, the Kirk cousin signing and some of this money, which I'm sure some of this is going to be some funny money. Like I get, like I'm sure half

[Joey P.]

of it is pretty sure a one year deal. This isn't Cole's cash for Kirk Cousins.

[Andrew Erickson]

And again, Atlanta needs a quarterback and they were like, yeah, see you later, care Cousins.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

So yeah, but I think that was

[Joey P.]

just really also a new regime coming into and fresh starts and all that and blah blah, blah stuff. By the way, it's nice that Debro finally gets that reference, the Godfather offer. Having watched the guy last year, you

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

said the Godfather and it evokes if you say three times.

[Joey P.]

But I'm just so happy for you.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Yeah.

[Joey P.]

You understand now what that means, Derek? What is a Godfather offer? Derek?

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Make an offer you can't refuse. Yes, I know, right?

[Joey P.]

Good. I'm so proud of you. You're such a big boy. All right, let's talk about one more piece of NFL news too, because it's kind of strange. Pukaku has had a weird off season. Can we just, can we just all say that? So apparently he's now entered a luxury treatment center. So he's been in the news cycle a lot. There was some comments that he made.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Not the best drum, that he made

[Joey P.]

some gestures, perhaps some biting, some weird stuff. I don't even want to like know how far we want to get into it. But hopefully if there is a problem here that he's got here, whether it be drinking drugs, substances or something or whatever, if he is in this luxury facility, treatment center, whatever it is. Hopefully he gets it straight because I think most people really like Pukinakua and I think if you're going into this off season, if you polled Pop, you know, just the populace of the NFL universe of players that you really like, Puka Naku would probably be a top five for most NFL fans. So this is a tough scenario here because I think a lot of people like Puka, but Puka's also been some weird stuff ever since the playoffs and Adiba. So do we think that this is just like a let's put Puka away for a little bit in a cabinet or you think there's some real issues here?

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I think there's some real issues, man. There's been a whole lot of like goofy with everything he's doing between the gestures, the, the quotes, the slurs, whatever, however you want to frame that as

[Joey P.]

well as shooting a shot with every Instagram model all day on social media fighting somebody.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

There's been other videos where he's been like a NASCAR events and stuff like that and, and the vibes have been kind of off. So I don't know what all it is in totality, substance abuse stuff or not. I do know that that twofold. This is not great if you want to get the contract that surpasses JSN and not to just throw this into money and all that kind of stuff because obviously his health and and well being is at the forefront of all of this. But sure, this does come when he's due for an extension and that would be a record setting extension. I mean we all kind of think that, or at least close to JSF JSN money. The other part about this, and here's the other ripple effect if the Rams are saying, dude, like we don't know because all the stuff y' all are seeing compared to what we're seeing in the building, because all the things that get out into the news media versus what actually happens also in the Rams building. There's probably a lot of other stuff that things that have happened inside the Rams building that will never see the light of day. The other part of this, does this sew the Rams into taking a wide receiver in round one of the NFL draft not only as leverage for protection

[Joey P.]

for them or does it reinvent them in the sweepstakes for A.J. brown potentially, because there were some rumors about that. I wonder if that was part of the reason because we all kind of looked each other like really? The Rams? A.J. brown, Erickson, you were like the one, the first guys who was Kind of bringing that up and the fact that he, you know, hasn't signed this contract. Also this, this incident in these issues certainly gives the Rams, I think, a little bit more leverage in that contract negotiation and also in some of the clauses they might be able to put in there. Puka Nakua, to me, that is, that's a big thing where it's, it's almost like a, it's like a win for the Rams in that sense, but it's kind of a loss in some other ways because now all of a sudden this beloved player is in a really difficult situation and then you're wondering how much do we want to invest in a guy that might have some other kind of issues.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, obviously the health of Puka Nakua, his mental state is what's most important. And it's good that he is now finding, hey, I have a problem and I'm trying to fix that problem and that the Rams are supporting him. So I think that's number one, a good thing. And then hopefully he gets back to just making plays on Sundays. Right. Super exciting player, especially with the ball in his hands. And it's someone that D, bro. Like, I always think back to you where you were the high, like the highest guy on Pukanu coming out as a prospect and he's in the first game, he gets 20 targets. It's like, oh, wow, this guy's pretty good.

[Joey P.]

Derrick Brown knows what he's talking about.

[Andrew Erickson]

Just, just like absolute absurdity. But I do think that from the contract perspective and I think about, well, remember when the Rams drafted him, he was a fifth round pick.

[Joey P.]

Yeah.

[Andrew Erickson]

Six round pick. So do the Rams do this as well? He was kind of like free money, right? Like we rolled this guy into a super producer with a day three pick. Do we just kind of like franchise him? Not car losses, franchise him or just like, hey, like we don't really need. We've already gotten so much out of this pick.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Right?

[Andrew Erickson]

Like, people dream about a third, a day three pick doing what Puka Nakua does for the past couple seasons. So if, like this is all I get, it's like, well, maybe that's not that bad. And now we don't have to take on any additional risk for a. Again, former day three player obviously has dramatically out produced and has been underpaid based on what the production has been. And the Rams are definitely going to draft a wide receiver. Whether it's in round one remains to be seen. But even before some of this stuff trickled out, they wanted to trade Devonte Adams. You look at the betting odds we've talked about in some of the mock draft shows. Makai Lemon to the Rams, Jordan Tyson to the rams at the 13th overall or 12th overall pick, wherever they're picking with that selection they got from James Pierce Jr. So again, free rolling all this investments that they've made with smart deals. Okay, do they didn't get insurance with another wide receiver. So I do think it's, it's, it's definitely fascinating to think and I think too, George Pickens, right, he's the other guy who's just waiting for, okay, who's gonna get paid next? Like, I don't need to show up to training camp. Like, so he's just kind of like sitting back, being like, all right, Jerry, do you want to go down to the wire here? Because every time we do

[Joey P.]

well, every time we go down to the wire too, these guys end up getting hurt. I mean, I mean, Tamara Chlorine, like, the longer that went last year, the more we're like, oh, this is not good.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Good.

[Joey P.]

He's going to come out of the gate slow. Things are going to soft tissue injuries, the same thing. It's like how many times we have to watch the show to know the results of what it's going to be. He was the fifth round selection that year. The last pick of that round, by the way, 177. Right before him, your boy Evan Hull, another one of de favorites.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

That was my boy.

[Joey P.]

That round also didn't age as well

[Andrew Erickson]

as the Puka take.

[Joey P.]

Just the Puka take, guys, guys. Just the puka day. But Also in the fifth round that year, Chase Brown, 163 overall. Fun fact.

[Andrew Erickson]

So, dude, Illinois's Workhorse More said it first like, like. And everyone just like ignored this, like, workhorse from Illinois.

[Joey P.]

All right, now the NFL news is out of the way. Let's talk about some of the draft prospects before we do. Shout out to our sponsor. Hard Rock Bed today show is brought to you by Hard Rock, that Florida sportsbook. The biggest weekend in college basketball is almost here. And the round of four is set. It's national championship time right around the corner. So step in with daily dance and boosts on Hard Rock Bed Live profit boosts, parlay boost. All kinds of boosts, baby. Get you to the moon and back kind of boost you can still play on Hard Rock Bet. Right now they're handling 25 bonus bets out right now if your team that you bet to win or cover hits a buzzer beater because when lights are brightest. Every shot matters more. I like saying it like that. Feels like. Feels like I'm getting like some sort of action film. I'm gonna do the rest of the read that way. That's what I think. If you haven't joined Hard Rock Bet, now's the time to check in on the game. New signups can double their winnings in their first 10 bets, max of 50 dol. That means that if you would have won 100 ducks, now you're gonna win 200 bucks. Not ducks. I don't know why I said ducks that first time. It's. I'm still shaking off the plane from yesterday. Jet lag is a real thing. So don't sit on the bench. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today and get the party started. A Hard Rock Bet payball and bonus bets, not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and other states. Must be 21 plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concern about gambling in Florida, call 1833 play wise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.

[Lori Siegel]

I'm Lori Siegel, a longtime tech journalist, and consider my new podcast, Mostly Human, your bridge to the future.

[Joey P.]

Anyone can now be an entrepreneur, Anyone can build an app, and it's very empowering.

[Lori Siegel]

Each week I'll speak to the people building that future, and we're going to break down what all of this innovation actually means for you.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

What I come to realize is that

[Andrew Erickson]

when people think that they're dating these

[Joey P.]

AI companion, they're actually dating the companies that create this.

[Lori Siegel]

We're experiencing one of the greatest tech accelerations in human history. And let's be honest, that can be messy.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

There's no playbook for what to do

[Andrew Erickson]

when an AI model hallucinates a story

[Lori Siegel]

about you, but it's my belief that we should all benefit from this moment. Mostly Human will show you how. My goal is to give you the playbook so you can benefit.

[Joey P.]

The reason I say agency is because, like, if we can give power back to people, then I think that's probably the best thing we can do for your mental health.

[Lori Siegel]

Listen to Mostly human on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite show.

[Joey P.]

See, that's how you get everybody to stay with the reads during a show, too. You have some.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I'm just waiting for Sean Claude Van Damme to pop up somewhere after that.

[Joey P.]

Well, I don't know. I'm not. I. I think I've been on the plane. I don't think I could do the splits this morning. I have to stretch a little bit more before the show. All right, let's talk about some NFL draft prospects. So the boys have been in the laboratory watching film, doing all this stuff, getting ready for our NFL draft coverage on fantasy pros. I'm going to be live in Pittsburgh there. What a time to be alive. That's going to be a great time. So hopefully I'll be able to broadcast from there with some takes and some things and some fun interviews as well. We're doing stuff on tailgate there too. So let's start with guy Ted Hurst, wide receiver that I know has been a guy that you guys have talked about. Georgia State product here. So, Dbro, why don't you kick things off? Talk to me about Ted Hurst and why people should be paying attention to him.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Small school guy, big time talent. I don't know why he stayed at Georgia State for the entirety of his career. It doesn't matter, man. He's freaking fantastic. He goes to the combine, he runs. He has a 9.9. Raz has a 4.440. The size, the physicality in his routes, and really this is more of a it. It's funny, like how my prospect process has evolved over the last few years. And it's not just so much an analytical take because the analytics aren't amazing for him. Like 104th, 178th yards per out run of the last two years. But the film is fantastic. He plays bigger than his size, the. The fluidity in his routes. He's an awesome route runner. He's a ballpoint winner. I think he's going to be around 3 pick in the NFL draft. I wouldn't be surprised if, considering all of this, a team loves him and takes him at the back end of round two. But you're looking at a player that can play X, can field stretch for you. I mean, really cover a multitude of roles. Like really love this guy.

[Joey P.]

Andrew Erickson, what are your thoughts here on Hearst in terms of what's kind of popped off for you? Deborah mentioned small school, which always makes things difficult, right? But we've seen small school guys, especially wide receivers, pop off. Hell, the greatest wide receiver ever, right? Jerry Rice, small school guy, right? So it's not like small school guys can't transition to the NFL camp, Super cup, so Cooper cup and I mean but there's been a fair amount of them I, I'd say in the last generation or Christian Watson, where these guys. All right, we get it.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I'm just gonna keep dropping guys that are good. Sorry.

[Joey P.]

Don't make me bring up Evan Hull again. Don't make me Chisholm, baby.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Oh, no.

[Joey P.]

Tell me you didn't tell me, did you saw that same report? I was like yesterday, the day before. It's like Chisholm working out a lot, blah, blah, blah. Trying to become a bigger. Seems like, do I want to add him now in Dynasty or am I gonna wait for August? Let's go talking about Hurst for a second here. 64206. So size isn't a problem here for Hearst. I think it's a matter of, of, you know, what the competition you play against and what that looks like. But what does it look like to you when you look at the film on Hurst?

[Andrew Erickson]

I think that the small school is the only real knock he has against him where he's checking off every single box. In terms of what I look for in a rookie wide receiver sleeper, well, does he win downfield? If you look at some of the guys that have popped off from some of these smaller schools that have gone later in the draft, well, they're usually downfield savants. And when you look at Hurst, 27 catches on targets of 20 plus air yards over the last two seasons are the most in college football according to Pro Football Focus. So this guy wins downfield, he has the size in terms of target rate above expectation. This is a static look at from Sports Info Solutions. 0.12% that is second in the class, only behind Jordan Tyson, who is viewed as one of the top three in this class as a first round pick. Super athletic, great job testing at the NFL combine. And the last thing I like to do, especially when it looks at some of these prospects, I really try to follow the prospect timeline and you know, how do they get here? Why didn't he move from Georgia State again? Apparently the Texas A and M coach really wanted to get Ted Hurst, but he stayed loyal to the program that he was at. And he stayed. And it kind of gets me to think, what if he had been on Texas A and M last year with Casey Concepcion, like, who would have been

[Joey P.]

the alpha in that concep tape for

[Andrew Erickson]

sure, in that potential offense? So that kind of, that way you're like if you.

[Joey P.]

Okay, look, I think they had to go to conception as much as they did because they had no other alternatives. But when a guy's dropping the football at that rate and you got another guy, like I, I'm like, they're not

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

going to Casey Concepcion, shade and slander in here. We're not doing that.

[Joey P.]

I can. And I'm one of the few people who can tell it to him eye level because he's tiny.

[Andrew Erickson]

That being said right here, Ted Hirsch would probably fit really well into that type of offense and, you know, maybe could have looked more like an alpha. So I think that where you're getting him and rookie drafts, I think that he's going to be a steal for a team. Just he checks off too many boxes. So, yeah, again, Georgia State, okay, whatever. But that's going to be considered and factored into his price across the board. He's a big wide receiver that if he lands on a team with a smaller wide receiver room, well, he stands out, literally and figuratively.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Right?

[Andrew Erickson]

It's like, oh man. Like this guy. Let's get him the ball. So I know when I watched him, I thought that he was a very smooth route runner, good release moves and again, contested situations, red zone threat. I also thought that. I think the biggest thing for me was he moved like somebody that wasn't over 200 pounds and 6 foot 4. Like his body control I thought was really, really excellent. So for me, I think Ted Hurst, he is the number one sleeper on our list for a reason.

[Joey P.]

Now, we've all watched a lot of Cole Payton tape here on this show because we were kind of first to the. I just want to point that out back in. Was it early February?

[Andrew Erickson]

February.

[Joey P.]

And I did a show on Twitch, right where we were talking about. We were watching film on different players and Peyton was one of the guys we were watching. And now it's funny because like everybody's like catching up to this cold pit, all the industry folks catching up. That. That's nice. It's nice. We know who's subscribing to the show now. That's. That's what's nice. But while you're watching that tape, there's another guy kind of pops off too, is Bryce Lance, wide receiver there. Senior. You look at the 40 yard dash time, 4, 3, 4. Certainly the speed is not an issue there for him. Erickson, I'll start with you on this one too. It is a good wide receiver draft. I think people talk about the depth of it maybe more than the exceptionalism of it. So what's your thoughts on Lance? Who is he more than just a Depth piece or somebody. Is he somebody that can transition to the NFL in your opinion, make a big splash?

[Andrew Erickson]

Well, he has the profile and athleticism to translate to the next level. And although it's North Dakota State, not the biggest program we have seen guys translate to the NFL. We talked about him earlier, Christian Watson. So I think that's like one of the easy comparisons because it's the same team. They're both deep vertical threats. Although I don't think that their game is exactly, you know, the same. I do think that he has certain size that teams are going to covet the athleticism like I talked about. I do get concerned that he basically didn't do anything until he was over 23 years old. So that's something that is concerning when it comes to his pro, his production profile. But the last two years he's absolutely dominated and I think that he actually took a big step from 2024 to 2025. Just like watching him play some of his highlights from 2024 it's like hey, this big guy fast catch the ball, score touchdowns, right? Like that's how I kind of felt watching his first year as really like that full time player. And then the second season in 2025 with Cole Payton as his quarterback. Well I thought he really looked much more refined as a receiver. So the numbers are obviously eye popping. Over 3 yards per route run can excel in terms of deep threat. Fifth in the nation catch of 20 plus air yards. Last season he caught 76% of his deep targets, second highest in the nation. So he's showing that it's the deep pass like I'm going to come down with it. Not just 50, 50 getting going his guys 80, 20 balls, right? That's what it comes to when you're throwing the ball deep to Bryce Lance. So again also brother of Trey Lance if we did not mention that. So I think that he is interesting. My only concern is just the really the age adjusted production is, is not good. So he's going to be 25 years old during his rookie season. So the history of those types of players isn't amazing. So that's my only real concern.

[Joey P.]

All right. Debro, any concerns that you have with Lance who I know is a guy that is obviously if, if you're watching, you know Cole Payton so much you gotta eventually take a look at what Lance doing that offense as well.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I, I don't have any concerns about him. I think with the age and stuff, I think that there is something to say about breakout age and early career production but the other part about it is in the age of nil and things like that, we're getting older and older prospects. We're not getting as many 20 and 21 year olds especially. And the thing that I want to highlight is specifically for guys coming out of smaller schools, it makes just intuitive sense that they're going to stay in school longer. Like because they're going to get options to, well, a longer Runway to prove that they are talented. Whether they transfer or even if they stay at the smaller schools, they have to do what they can to sit here and improve their draft capital. If they, if they're hearing from agents or whatever else that the draft capital is not amazing, but then they could stay another year at school, make some more money, go to like say the Senior bowl or what have you, and then be able to show out in that manner, then I think it makes a lot of intuitive sense that the smaller school guys stay in school. But I love Bryce Lane, man. Like, and I'll just say it like, this isn't a helmet scouting thing. I you look at size, you look at speed, you look at a lot of his game. Yeah, like, I think he is Christian Watson 2.0 and this isn't just because, oh, he's coming from North Dakota State. It's so much of his game stacks up and reminds me so much of Christian Watson. And the, the impressive parts about Bryce Lance's game, just from the analytics side too, this guy had only a 3.8% drop rate. When we're talking about and Erickson mentioned this, his ADOT over the last two years was 14.1 and 15.5. When you're getting the high degree of, of the targets downfield, you don't see drop rates that low. As well as the other part about this, when guys are getting targets and really the function of how they're being used is downfield a ton. Not only do you see drop rates not usually that low, the other part about it is Bryce Lance amongst all FBS and FCS wide receivers last year was also eighth in yak per reception. So it's he's getting targeted way downfield, he's not dropping any balls and he's still producing yak. You don't see guys that are targeted deep downfield produce yak at that high of a clip. So the athleticism is translating. He's got some things where in his game he still needs to grow as far as the route nuance and stuff like that, but he's a strong route runner. Release package is Good. I just again, another player that we see that the NFL does this every year. I don't care what anybody says, it is a proven fact. They double count speed. Bryce Lance. I, I think he, I have a third round like a late second, third round grade. I think he probably goes in the third round of the NFL draft. But if he were to get into the late second because the dude ran a freaking 4, 3, 4, 40 would not be shocked at all.

[Joey P.]

Well, I think you're also going to see, you know, because guys are making money in the college ranks nowadays that you're going to see a lot more older prospects just generally and they should like that filter system is going to be different. I think it should be different. The only guy recent memory that I can think of, he turned 24 in the beginning of his rookie season was Calvin Ridley. Right. So he was a little older, quote unquote for the process. And he ended up being pretty darn good.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Was around there too. But maybe I'm wrong.

[Joey P.]

I'd have to go back and double check that Ridley. I know and I did verify it before I said it on the airwaves here. And he was drafted at 23, but turned 24 like right after. It was very close to that. So. But it's some of that, some of those years too was because of the COVID eligibility and things like that. Every era is going to be different and I think this new nil era is going to change things in terms of the age. Speaking of changing things, let's change up to the quarterback here. Same team, Cole Payton. It was inevitable that we talk about him today. So I know we've talked about him before, but dbro, now that everybody else is talking about him, do you see any movement there in terms of draft capital?

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I think everything's lagging on him. You look at every mock draft site and they're putting him as like a, into like, I mean literally like a last round, last two round pick. I don't think that's gonna be the case. I think we talk about all of this stuff and like quarterback position gets pushed up the board and quarterbacks because of the thirst of the position, they're going to go earlier than they should. That doesn't just extend to freaking Ty Simpson. We all, we all can understand that, right? So I think Cole Payton probably goes in round three of the NFL draft. I, I don't put in him like going higher than that just because he is coming from North Dakota State. There is a short Runway of him as a starter. There are questions and transitioning from being a small school guy, the offense that he ran, a lot of rpo, a lot of boot action, transitioning like this is a player that needs to sit. He needs to sit for a year at least and acclimate to the NFL game, get more reps, learn the system, learn the playbook, hone the mechanics, all that kind of stuff. But dude, his traits are high end. If this was 10 years ago in the NFL like he'd be a first or second round pick. We're not seeing that this year. He's not going to be. I'm glad for him because then he's not thrust into a starting role immediately. But for, I mean and I know I've brought this stat up before but for everybody that's just now tuning into the Cole Payton show. Amongst all FBS and FCS quarterbacks last year with at least 150 dropbacks, he was 18th and adjusted completion rate 6th and a dot. First in yards per attempt and first in big time throw rate. And he was also 12. Top 12 in basically every other metric that I care about on a per drawback basis. Talent's real, he's got it. Love this kid.

[Joey P.]

What's appealing to me about Peyton Andrew is that the fact that he isn't a first round guy, right? He's not going to be drafted, he might not be a second round guy. That means that it's open season where some organization can just look at the raw tools and say let's bring him into our room, teach him how to do things right, give him some time and some breath there. And in a year or two, maybe you do have something that's very special because we know the athleticism. It's like Josh Allen, right? You can't teach the athleticism. Can you improve footwork? Can you improve release point? Can you do all those little things and then improve on your reads? Yeah, you could do all that stuff. And you know the lefty quarterback situation too is another one too. People just look at it sometimes and they can't wrap their mind around it. But you had a lot of success with some guys like Steve Young in the league and a couple other guys who were mobile left handed quarterbacks. So I feel like that you could just throw out the window as well. But for Peyton, for you in this process, where are you at?

[Andrew Erickson]

Well, don't tempt the Atlanta Falcons to

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

add them all, baby. Collect all those Pokemon, especially one that

[Andrew Erickson]

he would be immediately the most athletic one on the team because the other two can't Move fair. So that might be something that Atlanta Falcons actually look at, considering they just love drafting quarterbacks and they already have ones on the roster, so it doesn't really matter. I, I had a question though for DBro. Who was your comp for Cole Payton?

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

So, okay, I had to go ceiling and floor with him because the range is so wide and I don't know,

[Andrew Erickson]

don't, don't give me these caveats.

[Joey P.]

Just, I don't like what he tops the floor.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

The floor is Jake Locker. I the ceiling for me. And I, I, I'm not. Dude, people need to get Tim Tebow's name out of, out of this. He's not Tim Tebow. He's not Taysom Hill.

[Joey P.]

Let's, let's stop. That's something you plug into AI and it comes up that, that's, that's some dumbass nonsense. If he hits a chat GPT of player comps right there,

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

he's Steve McNair.

[Andrew Erickson]

Steve McNair.

[Joey P.]

Now that's interesting. I mean, Steve McNair was so good. I people, people don't realize. I think, you know, there's a whole generation of people who did, you know, the young, the youngins don't realize how good Steve McNair was.

[Andrew Erickson]

I mean, I know, I know Steve McMahon's.

[Joey P.]

That's refreshing.

[Andrew Erickson]

I know that last year you ain't young no more. He was. Yeah, not young anymore. He, he was the last. He won MVP with Peyton Manning. Right then they were CO MVPs when that was somehow a thing.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Yeah.

[Andrew Erickson]

Can't believe that ended up happening. But for me, with Cole Payton, I am always looking for guys that can move, that have a rushing upside. Coming from the fantasy side of things. Third in the class in rushing yards. 69 rushing yards per game last year. His career average is 40 rushing yards. But that's because he wasn't even starting all these games. He was being used in charge of packages as a pure rusher in the North Dakota State offense. So I think that when you look at just the numbers, his rushing yardage, 69 yards, that's above guys like Justin Fields and Daniel Jones during their college careers. The 40 rushing yards per game, that's closer to guys like Jackson Dart and Josh Allen. Have all these guys been super perfect? Obviously Josh Allen is the highest outcome, but Fields and Daniel Jones, it's never been perfect for those guys, especially as passers. But they've hit fantasy lines because they can make somebody plays with their athleticism. So I do think that Cole Payton, in the right system could develop a little bit more as a passer. But right now it's like, hey, you gotta throw someone out there who can extend plays, make guys miss in the backfield. I think that's great for fantasy football. So he is someone that I'm circling a lot of these super flex rookie drafts where, hey, this guy is so much better than this. All these crappy running backs in this class. I'm like, this guy's never gonna sniff.

[Joey P.]

He's a lottery ticket.

[Andrew Erickson]

At least Cole Payton, he's a lottery

[Joey P.]

ticket, especially if he lands in the right. If he lands in Andy Reid's offensive room or he lands in, you know, Sean Payton's offensive room. Well, I think they still have. So they've got a guy ahead of him with who's very toolsy. I don't know if there's enough room for him and Anthony Richardson in the same locker room right now. I don't know if the box is big enough for all the tools there. All right, let's talk about Eric McAllister. Next guy on the list today. TCU wide receiver, guy who started out of Boise State. Speed is his game. I think we can agree on that. Some questions about his catch factors and some other things there. So, Andrew, let's start with you here with McAllister. What are the things you like about him that you think might be intriguing? Because some of the grades will tell you he's more of like a NFL depth guy, backup kind of guy, maybe special teams guy. Some other people have a different idea of what he could be.

[Andrew Erickson]

If you look at a lot of the advanced wide receiver metrics that we look at with prospects, he is top 10 across the board. Like, you can't find something where, hey, we like this player because he does well at this. Where Eric McAllister's name doesn't just randomly pop up somewhere. Last year, he had 119 targets that was fifth most in the class. He has a top 10 dominator rating and breakout age. So he broke out at Boise State at an early age. Again, he's not even 20 years old. Or. Excuse me, he broke out before the age of 20. So when I was talking about Bryce Lance, it's. He wasn't. He didn't do anything in college until he was 23 years old. Eric McAllister has been putting up numbers since he was 20, well before he was 20 years old at two different programs. Second yards after the catch per reception last year, first in broken tackle rate 20, 24. He was competing for targets with two NFL players that were drafted on day two, Jack Besh and Savion Williams. He had more receiving yards than Savion Williams as a younger prospect despite fewer targets. Average 19.5 yards per catch. And before he got hurt in his final year at Boise State, he was an absolute heater. The first 10 weeks of the season, over 3 yards per hour on 90 targets. The concerns I think with him are and why he's not getting. Because it's weird because you list all these things off. These are amazing numbers. And why isn't he getting more buzz? It's number one. I think he does have some off field baggage. He was arrested 2024 after threatening a man with a gun. So charged with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. So we don't like to hear that. And he also is dealing with some type of injury issues where at TCU's Pro Day. This is per Tony Pauline, one of my favorite draft NFL draft insiders ran a 4, 5, 6. But then he stopped participating in the pro day. He ran 15 routes. Apparently he's had a right knee scope that kept him out of the Shrine Bowl. Sidelined him for the combine. Again, this is another player that we did not get testing at the NFL combine. So all these guys are blowing up left and right. Ted Hurst, Bryce Lance. Like we're so excited about Eric McAllister, someone that checks off a lot of boxes. Didn't do the athletic testing. So. And then we also Pauline noted that he might have a Jones fracture in his foot. So those are the big concerns and red flags of a sleeper player where the on field production I don't know if is so much up for debate versus well he's got all this other stuff off the field that is the reason why he's not more of a buzzier player.

[Joey P.]

Well with all that stuff though, I mean eventually that does pile up and it makes you question about how good of investment is he even if he falls to very late in terms of round draft capital. So Debro, where does he have to land in your opinion? Where you take a shot on him based on some of those things that he flashed on tape?

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I think he'll be an early day three pick. Like I think he'll probably go round four of the NFL draft because of all the off field stuff and just to stack up everything Erickson kind of ran through there. Yeah. So in 2025 he had a hamstring issue. In January of 2026 he had the knee scope in and in March he did have the Jones fracture, but he did run the 4.56 40 his pro day before he pulled up. But the talent is there, man. Like if you turn on the film for him, he is freaking fantastic. And I know a lot. The other thing about it is we have, we have consistent not tropes but like, okay, this guy comes from this college.

[Andrew Erickson]

We're worried about it.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Tennessee wide receivers, ah, TCU wide receivers, ah, they don't ever seem to pan out. But I, I, I think we have two guys that, that can buck the trends here with that when we're not talking about Chris Brazil here, but I think we could talk about Eric McAllister in the same breath of bucking the trend of like helmet scouting for these colleges and because are there red flags here? Are there worrisome things about it? Yes, but the talent is insane, man. Like over the last three years he's ranked 26, 16th and 15th in yards per route run. Last year amongst all FPS wide receivers, he was, he was 4th in missed tackles, force per attempt, he was 14th in Yak per reception. And all this stuff shows up on his film like he's a build up split, build up speed wide receiver. He's just dominates on slant routes. And he also is a really good deep threat. Like there are moments on his film where his ball tracking, it's, it's just insane. Like he makes these awesome plays look so freaking effortless and easy. And you, you marry all of this together and it's like, okay, like there's a team that's going to take a swing on him probably in the fourth round in the NFL draft. And if he can get all the all field stuff together, keep his nose clean and be healthy, he could really, really pan out in a huge way. Like right now, just based off a talent, I've got him as my wide receiver 11 of this class. And I float back and forth daily on whether wide receiver 10 or wide receiver 11 between him and Chris Brazel.

[Joey P.]

All right, Andrew, you slandered the running backs here, so I want to bring one up. Seth McGowan from Kentucky Senior. Let's talk about him for a second here. 4, 4 9, 40 yard dash, four two and a half vertical jump there. So Debro, you can start off here with McGowan. I'm going to give Andrew time to collect his thoughts on the running back class here for a moment. So McGowan and Kentucky, obviously, you know, running backs last year, strong class, we all like that grouping. This year it's not as good, it's top heavy. Let's put it that way. We love love at the top. Price is interesting. You know my guy, Mr. Washington. But where are you at here with some of the deeper names and McGowan being one of them?

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I think he is the Isaiah Pacheco of this class. And it's not only because he tested otherworldly and he was an awesome athlete. This dude runs angry. He look, he runs like he is ticked off at the world, at the earth and he's trying to make the ground pay with every blade of grass that he stomps on. And he, he also pops from analytics like 20, 24 40th and yards of the contact per attempt, 23rd elusive rating. I think he does have a three down skill set. Again, a player that I think we're going to talk about is the interviews with teams are going to be huge because again, another player that does have all field issues, he was dismissed from Oklahoma, found guilty of larceny, got one year of pro but last year, you know, out of the headlines. So hopefully that's definitely behind him. But if there was a player in this running back class outside of like the top five guys we've talked about or that everybody's talking about top six, if you wanted to include Singleton. I don't but it, McGowan could be the guy that, that pops from the later rounds and has a very Isaiah Pacheco type of career arc. But maybe we get a healthy version

[Joey P.]

of Isaiah Pacheco, so that would be nice. Erickson, what are your thoughts on McGowan?

[Andrew Erickson]

Well, I love that you brought up the Isaiah Pacheco comp because you know who the new Chiefs running back coaches? It's DeMarco Murray, who was the running backs coach for Oklahoma, which is where Seth McGowan started his college career back in 2020. So, so talking about guys that are old in this class, Seth McGowan, because he's had his issues with the law, he has been dismissed from, again dismissed from the Oklahoma program. He spent three months in jail, like legit. So this is a guy who has been kind of hit rock bottom at points and it's someone that's trying to bring himself back up. He played as a true freshman when Ramondre Stevenson was still on Oklahoma and he got suspended for multiple games.

[Joey P.]

So mine is a stat like you're on the 40, you do the, you know, you do the vertical jump, you, you know, do the press. How many months have you spent in a correctional facility? Like, is that something we have to add this like to the combine profile?

[Andrew Erickson]

I, I hope not feels like because you want to go back to what does the guy do on what does the guy do on the field and Seth McGowan. To me, when I'm looking for late round running backs who hit are you big, are you fast and can you catch passes? Check, check, check. Seth McGowan can do all three of those things. He actually kind of reminds me a little bit of Ramandre. That's kind of what gravitated toward me towards Ramondre back when he came out of the draft was this guy's big and catches passes. I guess he had some off the field stuff similar to again, not an exact comparison, but that's why he fell to day three and he's ended up being a pretty good pro and definitely outpacing his draft capital as a day three running back selection. So. And the other thing too, and bearing the lead these Seth McGowan shared a backfield with Mike Washington at New Mexico State and who was better? Seth McGowan? He was the more efficient running back behind the same type of blocking. So although Mike Washington is going up those draft boards because of his performance at the combine. Yes. Historic Album was also really, really good at the combine as well.

[Joey P.]

See, I like watching it before the combine, so can't go by me. I get what you're saying.

[Andrew Erickson]

McGowan is free and he out produced everybody's favorite running back post combine and

[Joey P.]

I think he's a good value. And again, if he ends up in the right spot, certainly a guy to watch. Last guy we're going to talk about here before we go transition to some more quarterback discussions on the tailgate today. Eli Heidenreich, which is definitely one of my favorite names. Running back from Navy. You don't see a lot of those Navy boys get drafted very often here. So this guy ran, let's see, a 4, 4 40. So that's not too shabby there, especially for, for a scrappy white fella. You don't see a lot of those guys running the four fours. Just saying. Just say it. So let's talk about him here. Let's talk about Heidenreich. Will an NFL team take a shot on him? Andrew Erickson.

[Andrew Erickson]

It's so funny because what Christian McCaffrey wore, 22 with the Carolina Panthers, right? And you immediately turn on Heidenreich. You're like Skywars 22. They're like, oh, his cop is obviously Christian McCaffrey.

[Joey P.]

Wow. I mean, okay, he obviously liked Christian McCaffrey a lot growing up as a kid. Let's put that.

[Andrew Erickson]

Let's not get crazy. That's what the tailgate is for, Joe. Crazy. All right, so I'm not saying that this is my comp, but like it just joking aside, this guy had an absolutely insane receiving production profile at Navy. Navy threw the ball the last two seasons under 14 times per game. He averaged this past year 72 receiving guards per game. That was almost the same as Denzel Boston. And the offensive threw the ball 14 times per game. He had more receiving guards per game than Casey Concepcion. I don't mean to throw more fit. I'm not trying to throw.

[Joey P.]

I know, but I'm here for it.

[Andrew Erickson]

Honestly, I just thought it was an interesting nugget because there has to be something appealing about this particular player because of how he was the entire Navy passing, which is not a lot. But the fact that he was able to turn such a low volume attack into legitimate production that is drawing parallels to some of the top wide receivers in this year's draft class I think shouldn't go unnoticed. So yeah, it could be totally. Just doesn't translate whatsoever. But at Navy's pro day, they didn't test him in any of the running back drills because we still don't necessarily know what teams are going to do what with him. They did only wide receiver drills at the pro day and a lot of teams comped into, hey, this guy can have a Julian Edelman type of comp role in our offense.

[Joey P.]

So obviously I think he's more Danny Woodhead than any of these guys.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Yeah, Danny Woodhead, like, you know, hey,

[Andrew Erickson]

if you look at the testing for, for Christian McCaffrey and Heidenreich, it's nearly identical.

[Joey P.]

All right.

[Andrew Erickson]

It is very, very.

[Joey P.]

Tell me why.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Because first of all, I don't think that he stays at running back. And if you look, that's fair how they used him. So last year he spent 44.3% of his snaps in the backfield, 14.7% in the slot, and 32, almost 33% as a perimeter wide receiver. So we're talking about he was basically a wide receiver on almost 50 of his snaps last year. And if you look at the film, when they utilized him as a running back, it was only on motion plays and tosses to get him on the perimeter. So it wasn't like conventional running back

[Joey P.]

usage, a lot of jet sweep stuff.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

It was basically wide receiver manufactured stuff. But because he was in the backfield, they counted as a running back. He's not a running back. He's going to be a wide receiver and I think a slot wide receiver in the NFL. But he can run from the perimeter, man. Like, his route running still needs to be cleaned up. I think there's some competition, you know, being coming from Navy, that concerns there. But he's got the athleticism, he does have the route running chops, and I think he's going to transition and be a slot receiver at the NFL. And if you look at the athleticism and you look at the size, similar career arcs, but different positions they're coming from, he is Julian Edelman dude. And I think a team's going to take a swing on him in the fifth or sixth round, and they're going to look very, very smart in about two or three years when he pans out.

[Joey P.]

Yeah, I sure remember size wise to Julian Edelman coming into the league where he was. I mean, he was a quarterback. So it's very different, obviously, in that sense. But look, I. I get it. I get. I get the concept there. It's just a matter of can he make that transition and does that mean also, oh, he's 5 10. So actually Heidenreich is actually bigger. That's right. He's 6 foot, so got a couple inches on him there. So interesting. I mean, build wise certainly built more like running back, but we'll see. We'll see how that goes. That would be fun. So, Andrew, does that mean the Patriots automatically end up drafting him?

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Seems like it. No, they won't. They don't draft wide receivers. Well, they won't do this. Nope, they don't.

[Joey P.]

He's not a wide receiver. They want to draft somebody to convert them. That's why I'm saying it, because that's the thing.

[Andrew Erickson]

When he does get drafted, we always. We're gonna have to be on pins and needles being like they're gonna say running back Eli Heinrich or wide receiver Eli Hydra or offensive weapon Eli Hydra. So it depends on what the team. To the car.

[Joey P.]

Let's do. Ow. I like offensive weapon. All right.

[Andrew Erickson]

Ow.

[Joey P.]

We're gonna have some fun here on the tailgate today. We're gonna talk about a provocative question I saw floating around the NFL streets, which is, obviously, this past year, we saw Sam Darnold, a retread quarterback, a guy that once had a lot of promise, bounce around a little bit and find himself in the super bowl and then find himself as a champion. And we're in a NFL scenario this year in 2026, where we've got a couple of those guys, some guys who are Former number one overall picks and some guys with some big draft capital who've now found themselves on a couple different teams and whether or not we think one of them could potentially have that sort of a path ahead of them in the future. So I'm going to throw a couple names here at the guys and I want them to kind of pick apart their favorite of who might be able to fill that kind of a void. Where could you see one of these guys getting to or even winning a Super bowl with their new teams? So let's talk about it here for a moment and some of the names that I've given up here. Daniel Jones is an obvious one. Daniel Jones. Last year, obviously injuries derailed the second half of that season for them, but at the time Daniel Jones and the Colts were in first place. They were the number one seed when he got hurt. People forget that and that was the first injury and then the second injury took him out for the rest of the year. But the Colts at the time were winning every single close game. Daniel Jones looked terrific. Shane Steichen looked like a genius and all things were going very well for the Indianapolis Colts. He is back there again. I'm going to put him as a nominee. Nominee number two Kyler Murray, former number one overall pick the Arizona Cardinals organization we know is not good. Historically, it's been a place where quarterbacks go for retirement plans, whether it's Carson Palmer or Kurt Warner, and that's kind of what they've done over the years. But every now and then they'll try to draft one and things typically don't work out well because it's not a great organization. They don't have a great history of coaching for the most part, outside of, you know, some blips here and there. And Kyler Murray now finds himself with a great coach with arguably the best offensive weapon in Justin Jefferson and a pretty good defense with the Minnesota Vikings. So a fresh start for him. Next on our list, Mac Jones, who a lot of teams have been calling the 49ers about, are interested in Mac Jones. We could see him landing in the right spot potentially. And we saw him also last year when Brock Purdy missed time, performed pretty well and winning some big games for the San Francisco 49ers. So yeah, he's a system quarterback, but in the right system, Matt Jones could also be that guy. Next guy on the list to a Tonga Violoa, another one who came into the league with a lot of high hopes, a lot of razzle dazzle from his former head coach there, Mike McDaniel of the Miami Dolphins. Now no one's with the Dolphins. And two of Tango Violoa finds himself on a show me deal with the Atlanta Falcons. And Kevin Stefanski, who is known as a very good offensive mind and certainly when you surround a good head coach and a quarterback that does have some intellect there, with pieces like Drake London and Bijan Robinson, it goes a long way. Last guy on the list, probably the toughest sell now, but maybe more of a future projection, Malik Willis, who everybody likes his maneuverability, everybody likes the athleticism, people like the profile. He just kind of got forced too soon into the NFL with the Titans, bounced around a little bit, ended up with the Green Bay packers last couple years, and now finds himself as the starter with a pretty big investment in his future from the Miami Dolphins. So, Andrew Erickson, I'm going to turn it over to you first. Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray, Mack Jones, Tuatanga Violoa, Malik Willis. Who do you want to make the case for of these guys that you think has the best chance to do something the way Sam Darnold did last year, which is eventually be a guy that can take your team to the Super Bowl? Of those five, who would it be?

[Andrew Erickson]

So this could be any year, doesn't need to be 2020 this year.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Just in their career.

[Joey P.]

Projecting into the future, baby.

[Andrew Erickson]

In their career. So I think that does change the equation and how I feel about this because I was crossing off basically everybody for the most part. For 2026, I really think it's Kyler and Mac Jones for 2026. Kyler Murray set up really well this year in Minnesota and Mac Jones could basically do nothing and win the Super Bowl. He could be on the bench the entire year and the 49ers just win the Super Bowl.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Quarterback to win a Super Bowl.

[Joey P.]

Whoa.

[Andrew Erickson]

Okay. We're just adding caveats.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

I mean, that's how I took the question.

[Joey P.]

A long day of caveats. Well, look, I would say this for me. Kyler Murray is the guy that fits that bill because I think we know the talent is there. We know he's still a guy who can get out in space and do things. And that's important in this modern day NFL. The weaponry is certainly there. I'd like to see them get a little bit more of a running game that I believe in, to be honest, to kind of offset that. That's just a personal thing of mine. But the defense is good. I think that division is still kind of close and I know people might look at the standings last year and go, how can you think that? Well, I think that the just abysmal quarterback played by the Vikings last year really just did not tell the full story of. Of the potential of what that team was going in. And I think that you look at the Lions being a team that I want to say missed their window, but certainly they've had a lot of injuries. They've lost a lot of coordinators, They've had a lot of chaos. They sort of get, you know, blown up in some of these big games here. And then you've got the Bears, who are a fun story, but now people are prepared for the Bears in year two. Does it get better, or is there a little bit of more of a. Okay, we know who you are. Now we're going to game plan differently. And the packers are the Packers. I feel like every year Jordan Love misses some time, and every year, the packers kind of are just a slightly above average team, which to me means the Vikings have a real shot to kind of carve out a path for themselves. And I think there's a certain point here where Kyler Murray goes, hey, you know what? This is my shot that not only cash in, but this is my shot in the NFL to prove how good I am. And I think sometimes when you take a superior athlete and you drop them in a spot where he's got a chip on his shoulder or something to prove and a fresh start, typically good things happen. So Murray's my vote. Andrew, I know you're going back and forth on yours. I'm gonna give you a little bit more time if you want to, like, you know, think about that. Debro, do you have a thought here? These five names. Look. Mac Jones, maybe with the 49ers. Mac Jones, maybe with somebody else. I think there's a lot of teams that might come for him. Maybe it's as simple as Daniel Jones, who already kind of showed you, hey, we could cruise to a number one seed, and this division is very winnable.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

It's definitely not Daniel Jones. I think he's a very limited quarterback. I think a lot of the ghosts of Christmas past were starting to jump up and say hi. Before he got hurt. I think he was reverting back to the old Daniel Jo. So, nope. Kyler Murray is the size of an 8th grader, and a has played bad over the last few years at quarterback. He is a limited quarterback. I think we're more likely to see Kyler Murray transition and go play baseball than we are to see him win a super bowl.

[Andrew Erickson]

So.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Nope. You can miss me with him. Tua. Hell no. Nope. Not doing it. Nope. Nope, nope, nope, nope. Dude, this, this comes down to between Mac Jones and Malik Willis. For me, I think Mac Jones has the cleanest projection of. You were talking about a team were to take him and make him their, their starting quarterback. A very Sam Darnold esque type of skill set. Like he's a good game manager. If you put him with a team that has a really good defense, can he get it done and keep you on schedule as an offense? My pick is actually going to be Malik Willis and I'm going to go outside the box here. Malik Willis. I, I don't think we're really having a massive debate about out of this list of players who has the most raw talents out of any of these quarterbacks. If he puts it together, Malik Willis could be the guy and the other thing that people will say. Have you seen the Dolphins roster? Yeah. They've got seven top 100 picks this year. If they hit on half of those, the team is on a different track as well. As in 2027, the Dolphins had the third most cap space in the entire freaking NFL. They have almost $150 million. This is only a situation where take your medicine for one year and the next year it's total reset. This could be a young roster. This could be Green Bay South. If Halfley is truly that good of a coach, especially on the defensive side of the ball, could he get some of that Mike McDonald kind of energy man, like we're Seattle, like we're talking about Miami. Not exactly in the same breath. Could look very similar in a year or two. I know it's. It's very hard to, to see right now with the composition of this roster. I'm gonna go with the guy that I think has the best raw talent out of any of these quarterbacks.

[Joey P.]

All right, Erickson, now you've had some more time to stew about it. Do you want to take a Kyla Murray? You want to take a Malik Willis? Somebody else on this board intrigue you?

[Andrew Erickson]

I do like the argument for Malik Willis because he is the one that's the most dark side unproven here.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Right.

[Andrew Erickson]

So he hasn't, he hasn't had an opportunity to be the guy. Right. And the Tennessee early in his career. I mean I don't think that that offense for him with Mike, like I don't think that was ever going to work. So that aside, he. This is his really first chance to be a starting quarterback with Miami. And things will obviously improve in 2027 assuming he can show enough this year to get the commitment from the Dolphins that oh we just drafted another quarterback and you're sunk. So he's got a lot of boom or bust potential and playing in Miami too is not the easiest. Josh Allen Drake may so the semantics of that I don't think I'll go with Willis. I think it's still Kyler Murray for me get if he's motivated. He's the former number one overall pick. You look at this list. He's the only guy here that was the number one overall pick of the list. Him. And maybe that was not shouldn't have been. I'm not saying that was right.

[Joey P.]

It shouldn't have been.

[Andrew Erickson]

It probably. What well Kingsbury doesn't have that pick. He probably not. Is it the number one overall pick? Potentially maybe so. However, I just still think that he's shown spurts of the highest ceiling of these five guys. In my opinion just can't has been shaky at times too. But if he's motivated in the right office system and I think too he's the one guy that hasn't this is the first time he's playing on a new team. All these other guys have already played or actually 2 I technically is also not played. But it's not to it. We know that. We know that one we don't really

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

need to talk about. But.

[Andrew Erickson]

But besides Tua he is the only other guy here that hasn't had a chance to play for someone not named the Arizona Cardinals. And we're talking about dysfunction.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

They're.

[Andrew Erickson]

They're like top of the list right next to the jets, right?

[Joey P.]

Yeah. So of the year too. You took a short joke stab at him. Russell Wilson is one inch taller. He won a Super bowl. So I really don't. You don't need to hear that.

[DBRO (Derek Brown)]

Russell Wilson are not even in the same quadrant.

[Joey P.]

What do they have in common potentially which is the carry them him. You don't have to ask him to do too much. And when Kyler Murray was at his best it was with DeAndre Hopkins when you gave him a true number one alpha wide receiver that can make him better. I can't think of anybody better outside of Jamar Chase maybe than Justin Jefferson. I might even put Jefferson ahead of Chase to be honest, in terms of overall. So I think it's a really interesting scenario and I think it's a great head coaching situation for him. If there's a chance for him to turn it around. This is it. This is that opportunity and I think this is a window too. That's intriguing because I do believe that that NFC north is a lot tighter than other people might think it is. And I think it is going to be a couple bounces of the ball in certain ways. And maybe that fresh start, too for Kyler Murray is exactly what the Vikings need after a rough season last year. Now, what do you think? Drop your comments below because remember, we're giving away a signed George Pickens dealer jersey and a hundred dollars worth of credit in pristine auction.com bucks, which is spectacular. So if you drop your comments below here and subscribe to the Tailgate, you could be the recipient of that. So again, just subscribe to the new Tailgate NFL Channel. Drop your comments. Hope you enjoyed the show today. And of course, that'll do it for us. We gotta go because they're closing down the parking lot. For Andrew Erickson and Debro, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. This has been the Tailgate. This is an I heart podcast. Guaranteed human.