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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Time To Jump on the Jacory Croskey-Merritt Hype Train? | Week 5 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1743)
00:37:46
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- [00:00]
Ryan Warrenley
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:07]
Michael Florio
If you're waiting for your AI to.
- [00:09]
Ryan Warrenley
Turn into ROI and wondering how long you have to wait, maybe you need to do more than wait. Any business can use AI. IBM helps you use AI to change how you do business. Let's create Smart to Business IBM. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warrenley, joined as I am every Tuesday by Andrew Erickson. Erickson. We're into Week 5, a month into the 2025 NFL season. It's not going well for my Ravens. It's going pretty okay for my fantasy team. How are you feeling here a month in?
- [00:54]
Andrew Erickson
I'm feeling better than the Titans, I would say. And how Cam Ward described how his team is doing through. Through four weeks. But like you said, yeah, we're a quarter way through the NFL season, which is crazy to think about.
- [01:05]
Ryan Warrenley
Not. Not technically. There's 17 games, not 16. So we're not. It's not a quarter, but quarter. Correct. You there.
- [01:13]
Andrew Erickson
And a third. 30%. Ish.
- [01:16]
Ryan Warrenley
No, it's like less. It's less than a quarter. We are almost a quarter of the.
- [01:19]
Andrew Erickson
Way through the season.
- [01:20]
Ryan Warrenley
Regardless, get it right.
- [01:21]
Andrew Erickson
It's going to be October very, very soon. Probably. When you're listening to this, potentially it will be October fall season, and this is when teams start to kind of emerge from the pack. We hear this a lot from coaches that the NFL season really doesn't start till October because you see a lot of teams treat the first couple weeks like an extended preseason. So I think we're going to see more teams kind of emerge, take form, and see the contenders kind of rise to the top and then the pretenders contend to pretend.
- [01:47]
Ryan Warrenley
So if the season doesn't start till October, what you're saying is the year isn't over for the Ravens already, as I've been saying it is. So that's. That's encouraging to hear that.
- [01:55]
Andrew Erickson
Division's not that tough. Like.
- [01:58]
Ryan Warrenley
I know. I mean, but at a certain point, like is. I think Bill Simmons always talks about the year from hell team. Like, at a certain point, it is just there's. There's nothing you can do. I mean, seven out of their 11 defensive starters are already out for multiple weeks, if not the season for some of them, you know. Yeah, we don't need to talk about that. Nobody wants to hear me complain about the Ravens. This is our running back show. We do split the show into two parts. So we're going to do our week five kind of running back buys and sells you know for this first part, second part, which you can check out on YouTube and on audio wherever you listen to your podcast, will be wide receivers and then sprinkling in a little bit of quarterback and tight end as well. We are going to also we're going to skip our we usually do a macro level kind of 30,000 foot view strategy talk from Eric. So we're going to skip that because we had two Monday night games this week and it just gets to be really overloaded and these aren't really games you can skip over. There's like pretty compelling, you know, news coming out of both of these games. So we're going to skip that kind of high level advice here for this week. That'll be back next week. We are going to dive into a Monday Night Football reaction with the doubleheader. We'll start with the first game which was jets at Dolphins. Dolphins win 27 21. I don't know if there's other stuff you had wanted to talk about with this. The clear big takeaway obviously is Tyreek Hill really, you know, crushing injury. Obviously one of those injuries that's hard to watch, hard, hard to see the replay of. Just, just looks really, really bad. And they've already said, you know, it's a dislocated knee, multiple ligament tears including an acl. He's going to be out for the season. So he's somebody that you and I were both maybe not the highest on throughout draft season. Tyree Kill, that fading of him never fully kind of realized itself in terms of us being really high on the rest of the Dolphins. You have always liked Jalen Waddle, but that was really it. Now that Tyree Kill is completely out of the picture. Are you like feeling like you want to really get aggressive with Jalen Waddle? Are you feeling like, hey, a couple of touchdowns for Darren Waller, you know, is, you know, his first game back in the NFL. He's now somebody that's really worth going after. Is it a guy lower on the totem pole like Malik Washington that you think is going to see a big boost? Where do you first look, Erickson, when you say, okay, Tyreek Hill not in the picture for this passing game anymore? Who benefits most?
- [04:06]
Andrew Erickson
I think from just like a role perspective and who is just going to play more? It's probably Malik Washington. Like that's the guy that Mike McDaniel has been scheming up touches throughout this season and is someone that I talked about a lot in the beyond the Waiver Wire article. Just about, hey, if the Team moves on from Hill, then Malik Washington would see his role substantially increase. They love getting the ball into his hands with these short area targets. He's great after the catch, he's effective on special teams. So I think Malik Washington is a really talented second year wide receiver. I think he's going to see the biggest role boost now from a target perspective like Jalen Watt. Like, I mean again this wasn't the idea behind the play for Waddle. It was more about well, what if the team trades away Tyreek Hill that maybe Waddle could have a biggest boost now injury is obviously a different situation, but I mean now it's kind of like put up or shut up for Waddle, right? Like he's got the opportunity on a silver platter. Like he has to deliver in this spot. Even though this past game wasn't face melting in any capacity, I think that Hill was actually more productive than Jim and Waddle was. Even though he didn't play a lot, he basically in the second half. So I think that Waddle maybe might be an interesting buy just because he didn't pop in this particular matchup. But we've seen the sample size a Waddle without Tyreek Hill, it's not that massive. But only been three games before the last night's game that Waddle had played without Tyree Kill in the lineup or like playing less than 50% of the snaps. And in those games he averaged nine targets and 85 receiving yards per game. So like we've seen the ceiling for Waddle and now this is the time for him to show up. So if you have him, you're happy that he has this opportunity now for him to be the number one receiver in this offense. If you don't have him, I think it's worth kicking the tires on the Waddle manager and seeing what you can get him for and not my league because I have Jalen Waddle on all my teams. So this is just kind of the hand that I've been dealt and I'm just going to roll with it, keep Waddle on my team and kind of see where it goes.
- [05:54]
Ryan Warrenley
He's wide receiver 30 in the consensus rest of season rankings. Now the game just happened last night so that might update later on in the week. Where do you think that's going to end up?
- [06:03]
Andrew Erickson
Much higher. I mean he's definitely going to be in the top 24. I mean an interesting trade that you could potentially see this week is Waddle or Chase like rest season. Wow, that's not probably a conversation people are going to be like, oh, someone sent me chase for waddle or vice versa. And you know, you have to it's not one of those auto rejects anymore. It's wait a minute, let me take a step back and think about this.
- [06:22]
Ryan Warrenley
Devon HN had 20 carries last night. He only had one catch for two yards. Do you think his passing game workload will go up without Tyreek?
- [06:30]
Andrew Erickson
I think that'll pro go back to what it's been. I mean this was the rare occasion where the Dolphins were actually playing with a lead. So I think that that probably played a part of why they were able to run the ball a little bit more than have to rely on HN as a receiver. I would expect that they're going to be trailing in most of their games because their defense is absolutely terrible. That may not be the case next week playing the Carolina Panthers, but Achan should be more than effective as a rusher in that matchup and anything you get as a boost from the targets I think will obviously benefit Achan.
- [06:57]
Ryan Warrenley
You very disappointingly in part two of the show, do not pick Darren Waller as your tight end to sell or buy. We could have gone either direction. I suppose. I was highly disappointed. Disappointed in you. But coming off this two touchdown game and now obviously there's this big opening in the passing game, would you rather have for the rest of season Darren Waller or the guy on the other side of the field in this game, Mason Taylor, who had five catches for 65 yards, you know, just his fourth game here in the NFL, probably have Mason Taylor.
- [07:25]
Andrew Erickson
I think that the Waller thing is yes, he caught the touchdowns. That's probably going to be his role. He's going to remain a red zone target for this offense. But from a consistent targets perspective and just from a health perspective, I mean I don't think the talent with Waller's really ever been in question. It's just about the guy being healthy. And yes he was healthy in this particular game after he had missed all the other weeks in like all of training camp with injuries. So if I'm making a bet on long term, yes, maybe Waller outscores Taylor again because he's facing the Panthers in week five, but Mason Taylor's facing the Cowboys. That defense is terrible. So Mason Taylor I just think is probably a better long term bet and someone I'd rather invest. But if you're talking from a DFS one week perspective, Waller catches touchdown Again, that wouldn't surprise me.
- [08:09]
Ryan Warrenley
Any other thoughts on the jets side of this sweat? I mean it pretty much Played out as I expected it to against a defense like Miami, like Fields was, was good. He also ran a lot and, you know, had two combined touchdowns. Garrett Wilson, 82 yards in a touchdown just continues to be awesome despite, you know, historically subpar quarterback play. A little bit better last night though, you know, like I mentioned, Mason Taylor, you know, Braylon Allen had the, the fumble at the goal line that everybody wished had gone to Breeze Hall. But were there, were there any kind of jets notes that you had on the side or. I, I felt like it just kind of played out the way I expected.
- [08:43]
Andrew Erickson
At least the fact that Braylon Allen did get hurt, I think that that matters significantly for Breeze Hall's value moving forward because if he's not going to be playing the next couple weeks or whatever the extent of his injury is, well, those goal line touches are no longer going to go to Braylon Allen, like they're going to go back to Breece hall because I wouldn't assume that Isaiah Davis would overtake that role. So I think that's good for Breeze Hall. I don't believe Breeze hall scored a touchdown yet this season. You might want to just double check me on that. But Braylon Allen's gotten a lot of those red zone carries this season and if he's out of the picture, then those will go to Breece Hall. So I think this is a stock up for Breece hall who I think has looked fantastic when the jets offense has been able to function. And like we talked about earlier, they're facing the Dallas Cowboys next week. So that is a great matchup for Breeze hall to be used not only as a rusher but as a receiver. And then you have the touchdown upside amplified. If there is no Braylon Allen hall.
- [09:31]
Ryan Warrenley
Has not scored a touchdown this year. Yeah, I know in the past they have liked Davis, so I guess I'm just not like in the moment. Obviously they were like, okay, we'll just go with Hall. You know, when the injury happens during the game, I wonder if maybe not necessarily the goal line, but if we'll just see Davis get more workload than we're hoping for, you know, after a full week of practice and when they kind of game plan with a new look backfield, you know, assuming Allen, have they said anything about how long Allen will be out? I haven't seen anything, if I haven't.
- [09:59]
Andrew Erickson
Seen anything about the follow up to the injured, but once he got hurt, he was ruled out of the game very quickly and did not return.
- [10:04]
Ryan Warrenley
Yeah, so that's usually a bad Sign.
- [10:06]
Andrew Erickson
I mean, was it a pretty injury? I think, I think that he. I mean, I'm not a doctor, so I want to speculate, so we'll get the news. But just, you know, there is a possibility that Allen is going to miss games.
- [10:16]
Ryan Warrenley
Seems like a strong guess at this point. So, yeah, if, if. If that really does all fall on Breeze and Davis's workload doesn't increase, then, yeah, that'll be only, you know, wheels up for Breeze Hall. Let's go to the other Monday night game. 28 to 3, Denver Broncos over the Cincinnati Bengals. A couple different angles we could hit on this one. I guess the first one I want to start with a negative is just like the Bengals in general. Like, is. Is this just like, literally trade them for a, you know, a bucket of footballs? Like what. Literally whatever you can get for any of these guys. Or are you saying, you know, I know Jake Browning has looked bad. I know the offenses look bad. It has come against the Vikings in Minnesota and the Broncos in Denver. There might be brighter days ahead for Jamar Chase T. Higgins, Chase Brown and company. Or is it just like, if you can get anything for them, you're trying to get out of the Bengals business?
- [11:11]
Andrew Erickson
I think that the point that you made about the matchups is really key here because it was two of the, I think, top 10 defenses in the NFL in their houses on the road. And when you look at Jake Browning, what he did historically in 2023, he was significantly better at home than on the road. Where did they play the Jaguars when Jake Browning had the confidence game, where we thought, okay, maybe this can work. It was at home. So you just need to forget about these last two games because this is the bottom of this Bengals offense. I think that it's going to get significantly better when they play at home than on the road. They're playing the Lions at home this week. Again, the Lions defense has been better, I would say, but it's a matchup that you're expecting there to be points. It has a massive total. And I like the Bengals to kind of bounce back a little bit here with. With their back at home. So Jake Browning in 2023, when he was making all of his starts, the first time that Joe Burrow got hurt, his first two games, his first two starts, he was terrible. He scored under 20 fantasy points. The next six games after that, he ripped off 21 plus fantasy points on all six games. So I think right now you want to go buy Jamar Chase just because you can get him for pennies on the dollar. And I I do expect that he's not going to be held down to these types of numbers every single week. Just look at back at the Jaguars box score. That was a game that Jake Browning played the majority of in Chase was fine because he saw a billion targets. Now T. Higgins, Chase Brown, those guys are going to be way more boom or bust. So yes, they could have a boom game here and there and then I would probably try to sell those players. But for me it's yeah this is really rock bottom for the Bengals.
- [12:46]
Ryan Warrenley
So interestingly Chase Brown is down and this is in our rest of season consensus rankings that I'm looking Chase Brown is down at RB19. I expect that to actually get a little lower. T. Higgins is down in the wide receiver 30s but Jamar Chase hasn't fallen that much in our rest of season consensus rankings. He's still wide receiver too. Now I find that very surprising that Justin Jefferson, Amon Ross, St. Brown, Nico Collins, Jackson Smith and Jigba. You know CD Lamb will be back in a couple of weeks. Drake1 these guys are all still below Chase despite what the offenses look like. Puka is the only player that has jumped ahead of him at this point. So I think you are right. When I think about anecdotally and just the leagues I'm in, like what would it take to get Chase right now it does feel like pennies on the dollar compared to what it was before the start of the season. But the way it's being ranked it might not be that cheap. What do you make of that?
- [13:36]
Andrew Erickson
I think that it's just a matter of trying to balance the market value on Chase while also valuing the where he should actually be ranked rest of season. Because like that's something you have to consider when you're making these rest season rankings where you're doing it where you would draft these players when they would if we had to redraft all the players today then you also have to capture well what's the market sentiment. So the market sentiment is obviously really low on the Bengals. So I think that this is capturing more of hey this Bengals off is going to bounce back based on Chase's higher ranking rest of season and maybe still that we're still getting some updates as that was a Monday night game so it's a little bit later on. This especially was the second Monday night game so maybe that does alter a little bit. So make sure you go check out the rest of season rankings on fantasybros.com but that's kind of the way I would lean for it. I, I don't think that he's probably gonna be drafted as the number two receiver off the board. If we were redrafting teams now, I probably wouldn't rank him that high. But I think that's still like, I think the ceiling case for him is still exists on a week to week basis like George has can win you your week if he is ripping off yards after the catch. Seeing 15, 16 targets in a game which is still in his range of outcomes on a weekly basis. So look, Chase has had bad games with Joe Burrow before where he's just kind of like dud it out and then the next week he goes out and has 150 yards and do touchdowns because he's just that talented of a player. So the fact that they're playing the Lions. The Lions also are dealing with injuries in their secondary. Like their two starting quarterbacks got hurt last week, Terry Arnold. Arnold and DJ Reed. So I think that this is a prime bounce back spot for Jamar Chase. And this is a, this is probably the cheapest that you'll be able to try to acquire him if you want to take on that type of risk.
- [15:08]
Ryan Warrenley
Broncos were in total control of this game the entire night. J.K. dobbins, 16 carries, 101 yards. First hundred yard rusher for the Broncos since Latavius Murray. R.J. harvey had a very good game. You know, his best game here as a rookie, 14 carries, just 58 yards. But he also had four catches for 40 yards and a wide open touchdown. Cortland Sutton, 81 yards and a touchdown. His usual self, Bo Nix. You know, really look, looking the best and I was against the Bengals defense, that's really bad. But looking the best he has. You know, here in his sophomore season. What was your biggest takeaway in the Broncos? I mean, it feels to me like the biggest standout unit is, is the running game here. And I don't know that this really portends anything for Harvey moving forward just because they were up by so much. So of course they were going to let you know they weren't going to overwork any one running back. But. But Harvey did look good.
- [15:58]
Andrew Erickson
He also out touched Dobbins. Like he had 19 touches to Dobbins at 17. And.
- [16:02]
Ryan Warrenley
Yeah, but my point is that like in a blowout game, like if they view Dobbins as the one and Harvey as the two, like it makes sense that they would give the carries to the younger guy, just get him some reps when they didn't care about the game, like, or do you think that that will be reflective of what we see going forward?
- [16:15]
Andrew Erickson
I mean, they were still using both running backs throughout the game. This wasn't a. Oh, well, Harvey got a bunch of carries in like the fourth quarter. Like, yes, he did score the touchdown at the end of the game when he was wide open, but it's not like that was the first time he was being used. You know, he had more. He's had better receiving usage than Dobbins all season long. Whether it's targets, whether it's routes run, Harvey has been the preferred guy catching passes out of the backfield over J.K. dobbins and not to. And I don't want to, like, praise Harvey and then knock Dobbins because Dobbins has been absolutely fantastic too, especially where you drafted him. Like, both of these running backs, especially Dobbins, like, he's been a weekly starter given the matchups. But what do we always talk about with Dobbins is we know that he's not meant or built for the long run, right? We. We know he starts out the season fantastic, but I, I have to check my notes, but I don't know, has he actually played a full season ever in his NFL career like that? It doesn't happen for J.K. dobbins. So if his production starts to tail off, would that really surprise anybody? I don't think so. And, and if it's coming at the expense of or as we start to see Harvey continue to rise in this backfield, I mean, I thought Harvey looked fantastic in this game. Again, Dobbins also looked really good, but Harvey's role is continuing to grow. He played 41 of the snaps. J.K. dobbins is at 44%. So again, I'm looking for opportunities to sell high on J.K. dobbins. That's still how I feel about this backfield. And I want to buy RJ Harvey. Again, don't sell for nothing because Dobbins has, like, he's a great start. If you just want to hold him and like, till the wheels fall off, I think that's fine too. But when we're talking about this backfield in like a month, I think Harvey's probably going to have more value at that point.
- [17:45]
Ryan Warrenley
J.K. dobbins was drafted in 2020. He's played. Last night was his 41st game in, you know, six. Potent. This is his sixth season since being drafted. Obviously it's only the fifth season he's played because he missed an entire year. But yeah, 41st game in six potential seasons worth of games to that point. All right, we got to jump into our running backs buys and sells because that was our longest Monday Night Football double header. So I was gonna say thanks to the NFL for the double header. Appreciate that. Let's jump into your first running back to buy.
- [18:16]
Andrew Erickson
I'm gonna go with Trey Benson, running back for the Arizona Cardinals. I don't think that he gave anybody the production that we kind of expected in his first game without James Connor playing on Thursday night against a pretty good, I would say, tougher matchup in the Seattle Seahawks. I still liked what I saw from Benson. He played 55% of the snaps in his first start. He out touched the next closest running back, DeMarcado by 13, 4. So I think that because he kind of delivered somewhat of a dud again. He only had 40 yards on 13 touches, scoreless yards. I think that makes him a great buy low because I think that we get carried away sometimes of that first start for that new running back that's coming in for the starter and we get carried away and if they don't deliver well, he's a bust. It didn't work. It's not going to work for Benson. He's not going to be James Conner. I think that we could have seen if James Conner played in this game, he probably would have struggled too. So I think that Benson is a prime by low candidate. Again, you have a good matchup this week with the Cardinals playing back at home as really heavy favorites. So I like Benson. I like to bet on explosive pass catching running backs like Benson. Even in that game against Seattle, still heavily involved as a receiver and as a rusher this season, Benson is second in the NFL at rushing yards over expected per attempt. So he's ripping off big plays when he gets chances, he catches passes and he's the lead back on a Cardinals offense that I think is at least average. So I like buying Trey Benson.
- [19:37]
Ryan Warrenley
I can't remember where I saw this, so I can't give credit to whoever tweeted it, but I saw somebody tweet if James Conner was healthy and had the exact, you know, usage and stat line that Trey Benson did in this game against a defense like the Seahawks. We would all be sitting here today saying James Conner is a buy low. So the fact that it's just Trey Benson instead of James Conner, like just slide him right in there because we saw the usage that we were hoping for. I think the other thing that maybe throws people off a little is that DeMarcado had the touchdown catch in that game. And so just because only one of those running backs got in the end zone and it wasn't Trey Benson, that might kind of raise eyebrows or scare people off a little. I don't, I really don't think it should. Like it's not even like a past game usage thing. Like Trey Benson had more targets and catches than DeMarcus too. It just so happened that it wasn't the one for the touchdown. I, I agree. Like, I think there will be better matchups ahead. I think the usage was really encouraging. My only real hesitation on Trey Benson is just like the Cardinals offense as a whole. Like I'm just, I'm just kind of done with Kyler and like I just worry about what the ceiling of the offense is in general and how many scoring opportunities and you know, open lanes and everything there will be for Benson. But outside of that, like the usage wise and I like the talent, like, I think it's a great buy low.
- [20:50]
Andrew Erickson
Well, I think that your Kyler point is a reason why it makes it that much of a buy low because teams and players just get sick of the Cardinals sometimes. And there was a. I was very particular with my words. I said average offense. I didn't say top 10 offense. I said Cardinals I think are an average offense. They play in a dome so usually get some higher scoring games there. And it's not a bottom 10 offense. Even when Kyler is really inconsistent. Maybe that's a reason to lean more on the run game, lean more on Trey Benson who we know can make a lot of big plays.
- [21:20]
Ryan Warrenley
Let's go to your next by running back.
- [21:23]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, this guy is very, very divisive. Jacquori Crosby Merritt running back for the Washington Commanders so the last two weeks we've been out without Jaden Daniels and we've also seen Chris Rodriguez kind of lead the commander's backfield since the injuries to Austin Eckler. So this past week the snaps were tied. It was 35% for both cross K Merritt and Chris Rodriguez. Rodriguez had the big 48 yard rush in the first half, but besides that, he did not do a lot in that game. Again, he was the majority lead back in the first half. Out touched JCM 4 to 1. Also earned the most red zone touches. But like I said, the snap rate was tied at the end of the game. Kokaroski Merrick got more involved in the second half and I still think that Krusky Merit has the highest chance of actually taking over this backfield. When it's all said and done, you look at how efficient he's been this year on the ground, he leads the NFL rushing success rate at 55, 5.9 yards per carry. More than half the time JCM touches the ball, he's getting a successful rushing attempt. Whereas Chris Rodriguez, yes, he's had a couple of big runs. He's bottom five in success rate on a down to down basis. So more often than not when they're giving the ball to Rodriguez, it's actually a negative play for the offense. His success rate's at 22% which is bottom five this season. So every time I watch Commander's game or rewatch one of these games, they talk about how high they are on Crosby merit. I get that it's been probably a slower burn than most of us anticipated, but he's still a seventh round pick and he's still a rookie. So I just think that his role is going to continue to grow here and I kind of just want to push my chips in and bet against Chris Rodriguez being oh, he's going to be the guy because over the last two weeks, yeah, they had a chance to make him the guy and turn the backfield over to Chris Rodriguez and they haven't really done that. They've kind of like left the door open for Krosky Merritt just enough where I still feel like he can grab the keys to this backfield and maybe we see the splits a little bit different when Jay Nails eventually returns. So for me, cross key Merritt because you can get him. I mean he's free at this point I think I feel like it doesn't take a lot to get him and I like the long term upside of a player that I think is just he's the best running back on the Commanders and his offense should be a better When Jade Daniels returns, throw out.
- [23:29]
Ryan Warrenley
A name for me because I was going to ask that. You just said now that he's like basically free. What? What actually do you think it would take to get him right now?
- [23:38]
Andrew Erickson
It probably does depend on when the person drafted crossing merit. If they responded I dropped him in the fourth round cross key merits, then you're probably not going to get him for cheaper. But if he's a 10th round cross.
- [23:49]
Ryan Warrenley
Key merit, what would you trade for him in Dynasty? Would you like a second round rookie pick for next year? Maybe that could be helpful framing just to think about value.
- [23:58]
Andrew Erickson
See, Dynasty's trickier because he could get replaced by a running back. The Commanders just decide to draft next year so I probably more hesitant about him because he's like, he's following like the kind of like the Pacheco kind of timeline trajectory in Dynasty, which can be really tricky because those guys don't have the draft capital to kind of like keep their value year over year. So I, I'm not sure that I would be so confident to move for him in Dynasty with a second round rookie pick. There's not a lot of good names that come to mind when I'm thinking about I know I have a bunch of cells that I, I don't want on my team like DeAndre Swift. Like I I just don't want him on my team. So could I get, I could definitely get Crosky Merritt with DeAndre Swift. They're both the bench players. I just like the long term season long outlook more for cross key merit than I do for a guy like DeAndre Swift who we could come back after the Bears bye week and think is he even the starter in this backfield anymore? So that's a name that I would throw out. Just someone that some type of depth piece, an extra wide receiver that you have if you need running back help. I think cross game merits a cheap guy to go after.
- [24:58]
Ryan Warrenley
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- [26:06]
Michael Florio
What's up, everybody? Daniel Jeremiah here and I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Sticks, we take you inside the game. From scouting reports and player development to team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. Every week we study the tape, talk to decision makers and share the insights you won't find anywhere else. It's the kind of conversation that connects the dots. From college football prospects to the NFL stars of tomorrow, we break down the draft, analyze matchups, and evaluate how teams put it all together on game day. Plus, we dig in the coaching strategies, roster construction, and the trends that shape the league year after year. Whether you're a die hard fan or just love understanding the game on a deeper level, we give you the full picture. If you want insight that goes beyond the box score, this podcast is for you. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Six podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Matt Jones. I'm Drew Franklin and this is NFL Cover 0. We think NFL coverage informative and entertaining and twice a week that is exactly what you're going to get. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Looks like something that should not be sold. Oh my. So that was my other big Colts takeaway. They sold that?
- [27:30]
Andrew Erickson
Yes.
- [27:30]
Michael Florio
Might want to go back to the drawing board at the Colts stadium. Yeah, I might want to go back to the drawing board on that. Yeah. I thought the shape we have with pretzels was working pretty well.
- [27:37]
Andrew Erickson
It's worked for generations.
- [27:39]
Michael Florio
We're just here trying to enjoy it. We hope you all will join us throughout the year. And let's go. I hope I'm as youthful as Pete Carroll is at his age. He's a young 73. He is a young 73. He is spry. I wouldn't fight him. I would listen to NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
- [28:05]
Andrew Erickson
Foreign.
- [28:09]
Michael Florio
And I'm Michael F. Florio and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season?
- [28:17]
Ryan Warrenley
Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football.
- [28:19]
Michael Florio
Podcast, your ultimate source for player news.
- [28:21]
Ryan Warrenley
Draft tips and winning strategies.
- [28:23]
Michael Florio
Whether you're a rookie manager or a.
- [28:25]
Ryan Warrenley
Fantasy vet, we've got the insight to.
- [28:28]
Michael Florio
Help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or.
- [28:34]
Andrew Erickson
Wherever you get your podcasts.
- [28:38]
Michael Florio
Toyota the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit toyota.com NFL now to learn more.
- [28:44]
Ryan Warrenley
Erickson Give me a running back to.
- [28:46]
Andrew Erickson
Sell Just mentioned his name as a potential piece to get cross key merit would be DeAndre Swift, the Bears rushing attack to be polite, maybe this isn't the best way to describe it's been anemic, I would say I was looking at the I glanced the first half box score and it was just absolutely atroc for them against the Las Vegas Raiders. Now, Swift did end up scoring a touchdown in that game, played 66% of the snaps, but he's just doing exactly what he did last year. He's just been very inefficient as a rusher and he's getting by on volume and a little bit of that receiving juice. So he does offer that receiving as a little bit of a floor, which I think helps him avoid any type of total fallout. But I just think that the Bears are primed to revamp this running game. I think that we're going to see the Bears offense look a lot different when we come out of the bye week. Ben Johnson has a sample size to work with. I think he's going to make the changes that he wants with his offensive personnel to get the guys that he actually wants out there with the most touches. So whether that's Kyle Manangai taking a larger role, maybe they sign a running back because what they're doing right now has been terrible. DeAndre Swift, through four weeks has the ninth worst rushing success rate, 3.3 yards per carry. He's bottom 10 in PFF rushing grade. Yes, he scored in week four. Use that as a reason along with his receiving usage to ship him off because I think that he's overvalued as a quote unquote workhorse in the Bears backfield, which is when you just look at the touches and the snap counts. Like technically that's kind of what he has been. But the the red zone rule is usually not there for him, you know, and I just think that this Bears offense is going to look a little bit different. So Swift has always been a mid to low fantasy RB2 throughout his career. He's never been better, really never been worse. So if you can get something more than that or maybe a chase at more of upside even if you're carrying a little bit more risk. Kind of like a cross key merit. Yes, there's more risk involved with him but Swift, yeah, he's a backhand fantasy RB2 at best and I don't think that's going to change. So for me he would be a sell.
- [30:36]
Ryan Warrenley
If you look at his fantasy finish amongst running backs every year of his career in half PPR scoring RB18, RB19, RB22, RB23, RB19 this year so far it's RB24. It is technically the worst but basically in that exact range that he always is, he is assuming health. I I do think a rare like floor player because we've seen it very consistently from him. It's just the ceiling is not there and floors do not win fantasy championships for you. There are specific situations where it might be more important just given like the makeup of the rest of your roster and the state of your team and your record and all that where having a floor is valuable. But for most fantasy managers this early in the season I think aiming for a ceiling that we know is not there for Swift, he's probably smarter.
- [31:27]
Andrew Erickson
Erickson. Yeah, the easiest production to replace on Your roster is RB2 like and that's what DeAndre Swift is offering you. So you can take a swing for the fences with a more boomer bust type of player than just kind of riding the sea or the riding the floor of DeAndre Swift the rest of the way. I don't think he's getting the reason that you win your league and for those reasons I feel like you can try to either package him with another player to try to ship him off or get someone to kind of not necessarily overpay. But if you're getting better than RB2 fantasy value for Swift in a trade, then I would take it.
- [31:59]
Ryan Warrenley
Yeah. Who's your other running back to sell?
- [32:01]
Andrew Erickson
I think I had this guy on the show last week, Tony Pollard, because it's just the same thesis of the play. The volume has been really solid for Tony Pollard without Tajie Spears in the lineup. The receiving was a little bit better last week, but in the sample size we have of four games with Cam Ward, the Titans are 30 seconds in terms of targets passes to running backs this season. So Spears has activated his practice window 21 days to return from the injured reserve. So if he comes back, I expect this backfield is going to be more of a committee and then you're going to be losing Pollard's volume which has been kind of keeping him afloat in one of the worst offices in the NFL with the Tennessee Titans. So I don't know if the Titans are ever going to turn around with Callahan calling the shots. He gave up play calling duties this past week and they scored zero points. So he's running out of options to really fix this offense. We talked about the early show where Cam Ward talked about how bad there have been through four weeks and even if it improves a little bit, could that be Taji Spears making the offense better? I don't know. I just think going back to ceiling and floor, does Tony Pollard have a ceiling that you're going to regret giving up on after four weeks? Probably not. So again, another player that I'm fine shipping off the floor for to try to get someone with a little bit more upside, even if they carry a little more risk.
- [33:13]
Ryan Warrenley
If you're looking for a pattern in Ericsson's running backs to sell, I mean it's, it's basically a veteran running back who's ranked in the mid 20s. I mean that's Pollard and Swift are RB25, RB27 and the guys that he's interested in in this range are the rookies or second year players, the Henderson Scatter Booze Harveys. You know, those are the guys in the mid. But if you're in the mid-20s and you're not a young guy with, you know, conceivable upside, sell, sell, sell.
- [33:40]
Andrew Erickson
I think that's a good point to bring up because that's typically where in draft season those are where the dead zone running backs are. Right. And I think that that's a good point to bring up that just because we're in season now, the dead zone still exists. Like dead zone running backs are still a thing and they look a lot like DeAndre Swift.
- [33:57]
Ryan Warrenley
Yes, exactly. All right, let's do buy, sell or hold running back trios here. I've got three trios for you. First one, Cam, Scatter Boo, Jordan Mason, Quin, Sean, Judkins. Again, that's Scatterboo, Mason and Judkins. And remember, this isn't a ranking. This is one to buy, one to sell, one to hold.
- [34:17]
Andrew Erickson
Excellent trio, Worm. You've outdone yourself with this one because you're making me sell Jordan Mason, which I hate, hate to do because he was definitely one of the biggest guy and I have him on a ton of leagues. But just looking at the situation with him, they are have a tough matchup this week internationally against the Cleveland Browns and then they go on a bye week and then they have Another tougher matchup. So then Aaron Jones is going to come back. So once the schedule looks like it's going to lighten up for Jordan Mason. Also, you have to consider the Vikings are dealing with a ton of injuries on their offensive line. I don't know if you're going to get. You're going to reap the rewards of Mason without Aaron Jones until it's too late when Jones returns and then the schedule gets easier. So for those reasons, I think Mace would be my sell from this trio of running backs. Scatter Boo would be the buy for me. He's just a full blown workhorse running back for the Giants. I'm not concerned about whether Tyrone Tracy comes back or not. I just don't think he's going to be a factor. I think that they've shown us we love Scatterboo. You love Scatter Boo. I love Scatterbo. We are Camp Scatterboo. So you want to buy Camp Scatterboo just a full three down workhorse running back. And then Judkins is going to be hold for me because I can't confidently say or give advice with him just based on or to buy or sell because there's a chance he could go get suspended. And if I tell you to go buy Quinn John Jenkins and he gets suspended for the fantasy playoffs, like that's a terrible move to make. But if he doesn't get suspended at all, then you feel like a genius. So for me, Judkins, if you have him, I think he's used to hold for me because I, I don't feel confident like trying to maneuver my way to acquire him or trade him away because there's just a lot of question marks with the suspension thing. Whether it happens or not. I think his value can kind of fluctuate depending on where he's owned in your league. But for that reason, yeah, that's why he's a hold.
- [36:01]
Ryan Warrenley
I want to point out on Scatterboo, I don't disagree with your decision. He gets the Saints this week. The next three games after that are Philly at Denver at Philly. So there might be some tougher sledding coming up here in the next month after week five, before the schedule lightens up again. And if you see that, I wouldn't panic if you have him maybe. I mean that that's a long time to wait to trade for somebody and say, oh, wait a month and then do this. But you know, it's possible the value will start to look maybe a little bit lower after the that stretch of three games back to back to back. So just pointing that out. Next running back trio. Although I don't even know if I should do another one since apparently that first one is so so perfect. Next one Woody Marks coming off of his breakout game. RJ Harvey and Zach Charbonnet Buy, Sell or Hold Woody RJ Harvey Zach Charbonnet.
- [36:49]
Andrew Erickson
I like buying RJ Harvey. I think that's probably the player I would look to buy just based on talked about it earlier with Dobbins how he's not really a player that's built to last and I think that we're going to see Harvey's role grow in this Broncos backfield. I think that he's probably I don't know if he's cheaper to get than Woody Mark. I mean Woody Marks is a waiver wire guy so he's probably not cheaper. Marks would probably be the hold for me just because I think that his role in this Texans offense is ascending. Joe Mixon they said on the broadcast they still have no timetable on what he he's not coming back. He's not coming back. So I I don't think that Nick Chubb is gonna completely go away, but I think that Marx is carving out a big enough role where especially as a pass catcher out of the backfield that he's going to be a fantasy usable asset. And then I guess selling Zach Charbonnet, if you can sell him off the fact that he got the touchdown, he's the back to own in Seattle. I don't really think that's the case. I still think it is Kenneth walker, but it's a 1A 1B kind of situation with C. The Seahawks, they like to use both guys. I would point out though because Seattle is so run heavy that even if there are using two running backs, both of them can technically still have fantasy value because they don't throw the ball at anybody else except JSN at this point and then they just feature the two running backs. So that would kind of be my breakdown.
- [38:08]
Ryan Warrenley
Last trio here Bayshaw Tutin, Isaiah Pacheco.
- [38:11]
Andrew Erickson
Ramandre Stevenson I'm going to buy Bishell Tootin I think that the Jaguars have really shocked I know I'm staying very much on brand here. Buying Michelle too in I like the second half schedule for the Jaguars. He's been dealing with shoulder injury too so I think that his snaps have kind of been lowered because of that. They've been kind of keeping him in check. But I do think that he gets unlocked a little bit farther down the stretch of the season. Pacheco. I don't know what you can get for Pacheco. He would be the guy I would definitely try to sell though. Just they're, they're just trying to get any other running back more involved in this chief's backfield and although he did have a glimpse of kind of old Pacheco self on one run, he's just not seeing enough volume to really be fantasy viable. So he would probably be the self made who was the last running back you listed?
- [39:01]
Ryan Warrenley
Ramandre.
- [39:03]
Andrew Erickson
I guess Ramandre is the hold for me because you're going to get even less for him than you would get for Isaiah Pacheco. And I, I think that the hive is so strong for Travy and Henderson that Stevenson probably is never going to be appropriately valued. So I think that he's probably just worth holding on to because he had the worst game you could ask for for running back two weeks ago and then he went back and let the team snaps the next week. Mike Vrabel still is committed to Ramandre Stevenson in some capacity. Like they're still giving him starter snaps and starter reps. So he's going to continue to be involved in the Patriots backfill unless he gets hurt or if, I mean, I don't. I mean I already fumbled twice. Like, like how many more fumbles is it going to take Mike Bramble to set him on the bench? I'm not exactly sure. So yeah, he would probably just be the hole for me.
- [39:46]
Ryan Warrenley
Don't forget about our weekly trade live stream on our YouTube channel where you can come and ask your specific Fantasy Trade questions. We'll be with you every Wednesday at 3pm Eastern. For those listening on the podcast, just go to YouTube.com fant fantasy pros subscribe and click the bell to be notified of all of our weekly live streams. That was our running backs buys and sells. Be sure to check out our wide receivers and a little bit of quarterback at tight end sprinkled in as well. Episode coming later on audio and on YouTube. For Erickson, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a path positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and tik tok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [41:00]
Michael Florio
Hey, this is Matt Jones and I'm Drew Franklin, and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and and entertaining. And twice a week, that is exactly what you're going to get. Listen NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here and I'm Bucky Brooks on Move to six. We take you inside the game, from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophy, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sundays. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [42:07]
Andrew Erickson
I'm Marcus Grant.
- [42:08]
Michael Florio
And I'm Michael F. Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season?
- [42:16]
Ryan Warrenley
Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football.
- [42:19]
Michael Florio
Podcast, your ultimate source for player news.
- [42:21]
Ryan Warrenley
Draft tips, and winning strategies.
- [42:23]
Michael Florio
Whether you're a rookie manager or a.
- [42:25]
Ryan Warrenley
Fantasy vet, we've got the insight to.
- [42:27]
Michael Florio
Help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or.
- [42:34]
Andrew Erickson
Wherever you get your podcasts.
- [42:37]
Michael Florio
Toyota the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit toyota.com NFL now to learn more.
- [42:43]
Ryan Warrenley
This is an iHeart podcast.