FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Top 10 Breakout Candidates | Middle & Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Ep. 1664)

Date: August 22, 2025
Host: Ryan Warmley
Guests: Derek Brown (DBro), Jake Hofer (with frequent mentions of expert consensus and references to Jake Seeley, Andy Barrons, and others)

Episode Overview

This fast-paced episode dives deep into the top 10 breakout candidates for the 2025 fantasy football season—specifically focusing on undervalued middle and late-round draft targets. Ryan, Jake, and Dbro go pick-by-pick (five each), sharing detailed analysis, insider data, player context, and actionable draft advice with fiery banter and sharp wit.

Their approach: Present players who are ideal "bench stashes" or late value grabs, making a compelling case for leapfrog rankings while weaving in draft trends, real-time ADP shifts, and bold personal takes.
Target audience: Fantasy managers prepping for draft weekends, especially those hunting for difference-makers beyond the obvious names.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Philosophy: Don't Waste Your Bench

• Jake's recurring advice: Most drafters fill benches with "safe" or boring players. Instead, target high-upside breakouts.
  • “These are 10 pieces that should be on your bench instead of replacing some of the names.” [03:16, Jake]
  • Article plug: “The biggest draft mistake everybody makes every single year…wasting your bench.” [02:36, Jake]

2. The Breakout Candidates Countdown

Jake’s List

1. Bryce Young (QB, Carolina Panthers) [#5]

   • Rushing upside emerges, late-season growth.
   • “If he runs for five, six, seven touchdowns on top of three or 400 yards…We might be looking at Bryce Young...as a fringe QB1.” [03:50]
   • Strong passer/rusher combo: “He rushed for five rushing touchdowns in the last six games last season.” [07:53, Ryan]
   • Bryce now above Tua and Geno Smith in Jake’s ranks. [05:38]

2. Cedric Tillman (WR, Cleveland Browns) [#4]

   • Late-season target hog, especially with Flacco at QB.
   • “40 targets over four games…if he’s just averaging 6, 7 targets per game for somebody that’s going super late…that can be the number two.” [19:14]
   • High passing volume with Flacco: “Over his last 14 games…4,200 yards.” [22:06]

3. Braylon Allen (RB, NY Jets) [#3]

   • Big-back, TD equity in a likely committee; massive upside if Breece Hall falters/moves.
   • “There is a non-zero chance where he’s so good that all of a sudden Breece Hall is kicked into the complimentary piece.” [30:54]
   • Consensus among hosts: “Braylon Allen or Joe Mixon?” “Braylon Allen…Joe Mixon's is straight up ... off my draft board.” [32:08, Dbro]

4. Marvin Mims (WR, Jacksonville Jaguars) [#2]

   • Recently ascended to true No. 2 WR status; any development under Sean Payton unlocks upside.
   • “If he has any development…now we’re talking about Marvin Mims clearly as the number two and potentially having 100 plus targets.” [39:30]
   • Markedly undervalued in ECR: “Marvin Mims is WR58…Cedric Tillman is WR57—both too low.” [41:16]

5. Rome Odunze (WR, Chicago Bears) [#1]

   • Year-2 redemption candidate; big slot/“Amon-Ra” vibes, possible ‘most valuable Bears WR’.
   • “If everything’s going to be better for Caleb Williams [with] Ben Johnson…there is a world where we get to the end of the season…[and] A Dunes A outscores DJ Moore.” [52:30]
   • Hosts agree: Ideal Year 1 post-hype buy. “If I really believe in the talent and the situation…I am always willing to look past year one.” [52:30, Ryan]

Dbro’s List

1. Jakory “Bill” Crosby Merritt (RB, Washington Commanders) [#5]

   • Trending upwards, likely to seize Brian Robinson Jr.’s old role; RB32 in Dbro’s ranks.
   • “If Brian Robinson Jr. is gone from this backfield…I moved him up in my rankings…Forecasting that Robinson Jr. is cut or traded.” [08:13]
   • Real-time ADP monitor: “He is up to an early 12th round pick…will continue to rise.” [11:02, Ryan]

2. Tucker Kraft (TE, Green Bay Packers) [#4]

   • Underappreciated athletic marvel, potential team leader in targets, top-5 TE upside.
   • “He could be sniffing like top five, top six type of production this year.” [25:05]
   • “Kraft was the Andrews in this conversation.” [27:00] (refers to Mark Andrews vs. Hayden Hurst analogy)
   • Jake agrees: “It’s weird they took the better tight end a round later.” [26:58]

3. Ricky Pearsall (WR, San Francisco 49ers) [#3]

   • Ascending, possible full Deebo Samuel-style role with early path to high volume if Iuke/Jennings are delayed.
   • “Talent, opportunity, situation…we need to be above market and this guy is heading for a huge season.” [34:51]
   • Andy Barrons and both hosts agree he’s a must-target even if it “feels obvious.” [35:21]

4. George Pickens (WR, Dallas Cowboys) [#2]

   • Now Dallas’ clear No. 2, poised for volume boost in pass-first offense, possible top-15 WR.
   • “I’m comfortably ranking him aggressively as a WR2. And he’s being drafted as a WR3. The talent is there; now the volume is going to be there.” [43:46]
   • “Top 15 wide receiver, and I’m gonna stand on that.” [45:37]
   • Jake: “I might disagree…I still have Pickens in the high 20s—so I’m not that far off.” [45:48]

5. Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Carolina Panthers) [#1]

   • Favorite mid/late-round WR breakout; top-10 rookie WR season possible (Malik Nabers-like upside).
   • “We could be living in a world…where Tetairoa McMillan puts up Malik Nabers type of rookie season numbers.” [55:02]
   • “Coach speak, talent, draft capital, it’s belief in Bryce Young having a better year this year.” [56:12]
   • “He could spike 10 to 12 touchdowns this year…” [56:57]
   • ADP rising, but hosts say still worth 5th round: “This is the cheapest…Tetairoa McMillan will be in drafts for the next 8 to 10 years.” [57:57, Ryan]

3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Role of Real-Time ADP:
  “ADP in general is kind of a lagging indicator at times. This is going to…show where guys are actually going as of this week.” [11:04, Ryan]

• Musgrave vs Kraft Draft Comp:
  “It’s the same situation as when Baltimore drafted Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews, and Kraft was the Andrews in this conversation.” [27:00, Derek]

• Fantasy Mock Draft Etiquette:
  “When the coffee kicks in, it’s time to mock.” [49:55, Derek]

• On George Pickens:
  “Say it with your chest or don’t say it at all.” [48:30, Derek]

• On Post-Hype Second-Year Breakouts:
  “If I really believe in the talent and the situation in the player in general…I am always willing to look past year one.” [52:30, Ryan]

• Prospect Fatigue and Overthinking:
  “People just want to find somebody else to talk about instead…and then it’s been so frustrating to watch him just buried in drafts.” [59:15, Jake, about McMillan]

• Draft Philosopy:
  “Don’t make the mistake of drafting him in the third round…and then now he has to do that for you to have any return on value.” [62:25, Jake, about McMillan]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:50] Jake starts breakout countdown with Bryce Young
• [08:13] Dbro: Jakory “Bill” Crosby Merritt’s meteoric rise
• [19:14] Jake: Cedric Tillman as must-have late WR target
• [25:05] Dbro: Tucker Kraft and tight end athletic breakout logic
• [30:54] Jake: Braylon Allen, TD vulture with real upside
• [34:51] Dbro: Ricky Pearsall, best late WR value (with broad agreement)
• [39:30] Jake: Marvin Mims’ path to 100+ targets
• [43:46] Dbro: George Pickens, possible Dallas WR2 and top-15 WR
• [52:30] Jake & Ryan: Rome Odunze, Year 2 jump and forgiving rookie failures
• [55:02] Dbro: Tetairoa McMillan, the “can’t-miss” WR prospect breakout
• [57:57] Ryan: “Cheapest he’ll ever be in drafts;” bold case for McMillan over the coming years

Final Breakout Top Picks Cheat Sheet

| Host | Player | Position | Team | Notable Quote/Reason | |------|---------------------|----------|---------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | Jake | Bryce Young | QB | Panthers | “Fringe QB1 if rushing keeps up; top late QB flier.” | | Dbro | J. Crosby Merritt | RB | Commanders | “Forecasts RB2/3 if Robinson is gone; real-time ADP rising.” | | Jake | Cedric Tillman | WR | Browns | “40 targets in 4 games upside; very late-draft steal.” | | Dbro | Tucker Kraft | TE | Packers | “Potential team leader in targets/will sniff top 6.” | | Jake | Braylon Allen | RB | Jets | “Could lead committee/steal goal-line & rise to RB2 status.” | | Dbro | Ricky Pearsall | WR | 49ers | “All the stars align for high-volume role.” | | Jake | Marvin Mims | WR | Jaguars | “Clear No. 2 with Payton; surprise 100+ tgt candidate.” | | Dbro | George Pickens | WR | Cowboys | “Goes from WR3/4 price to top-15 reality.” | | Jake | Rome Odunze | WR | Bears | “Big slot/Amon-Ra upside; post-hype breakout.” | | Dbro | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | Panthers | “Top-10 rookie WR outcome; targets, TDs, alpha role.” |

Summary Flow & Tone

The hosts blend expert-level analytics (“per-route metrics,” “real-time ADP,” “red zone passing rate”) with casual, approachable language, inside jokes, and dynamic back-and-forth.
Key takeaways:

• Be aggressive. Don’t “draft last year’s news.” Get ahead on trending risers while ADP lags.
• Don’t fear Year 1 flameouts. Many candidates on this list are “post-hype.”
• Monitor situation + talent + ADP shifts. This is where draft edges live.
• Don’t wait. Especially on McMillan, Pearsall, Kraft, and Mims—the market is catching up.
• Leave the draft with upside. Every bench slot should have breakout potential.

For Further Prep

• Consensus Rankings and Updates: fantasypros.com/rankings
• Real-Time ADP: Track as news and hype shift values.
• Draft Simulator: fantasypros.com/mock
  “If you have enough time for a bathroom break you have enough time to mock.” [49:40]

Stay sharp, draft with intent, and pounce on these breakouts before your league-mates catch on!