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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Top 10 Breakout Candidates | Middle & Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Ep. 1664)
01:01:54
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- [00:00]
Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
Jake Hofer
Tune in to all the Smoke podcast where Matt and Stack sit down with former first lady Michelle Obama. Folks find it hard to hate up close.
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Derek Brown
And when you get to know people.
- [00:16]
Jake Hofer
And you're sitting in their kitchen tables.
- [00:18]
Derek Brown
And they're talking like we're talking, you.
- [00:20]
Ryan Warmley
Know, you hear our story, how we grew up, how Barack grew up, and.
- [00:23]
Jake Hofer
You get a chance for people to.
- [00:24]
Derek Brown
Unpack and get beyond race.
- [00:27]
Jake Hofer
All the Smoke featuring Michelle Obama. To hear this podcast and more, open your free iHeartRadio app, search all the Smoke and listen now.
- [00:35]
Ryan Warmley
Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. I am Ryan Warmley, joined as always by Derek Brown. Well, not as always, I guess, but joined as sometimes by Derek Brown and by Jake Seeley from the Athletic. Guys, we are talking some breakout candidates here. We'll be focusing, of course, on guys in the middle and late rounds. We're going to do this countdown style, five to one from each of you, ending with our number one breakout candidates. Dbro, how are you feeling? The day after Fantasy Fest, I was.
- [01:04]
Derek Brown
Like, we do one, one or two segments on fest. I haven't podcast it with you forever and I already feel like I hear the hints in your voice of, oh God, another show with this dude.
- [01:15]
Ryan Warmley
I'm doing good, worm.
- [01:16]
Derek Brown
Love you.
- [01:18]
Ryan Warmley
I love you too. Also, you might notice the two hours of the fest that I was hosting. I did the first two hours yesterday, which probably everybody should go check out. It is available. You can rewatch it on YouTube. You can pick and choose your favorite segments with favorite guests if you want. We had J.J. zachary, Andy Barrons, Tara Roberts, Dave Richard, Jamie Eisenberg, Justin Boone, Jake Seeley, tons of people on there. It was a super fun time.
- [01:39]
Jake Hofer
Say, bury the lead there, dude. Come on.
- [01:41]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, well, I was kind of going in order of when folks appeared on this show, but it was, you know, six hours if you include the hour on Twitch at the end, the after party of fantasy coverage. So everybody should go check that out. There's a Best of the Fest available on audio version on like Spotify and wherever you listen to your podcast also. So we, we had a ton of fun. I will point out, Debro, that in the two hours that I was hosting, I don't think we discussed a single Ravens player. So you can, you know, back off of this stance finally.
- [02:08]
Derek Brown
Fine. It's fine. Contractually, I know that you're, you're obligated to mention the Ravens at least once every show, even if it's not a player. Seeing as We've done here, so I get it.
- [02:18]
Ryan Warmley
Check.
- [02:19]
Jake Hofer
Yeah. I will say if you do want to watch the mock draft, probably the most fun because DBRO and I were taking shots at each other the entire time, including. I almost cursed live on your stream.
- [02:29]
Derek Brown
That was a lot of fun, dude.
- [02:31]
Ryan Warmley
Well, Jake, besides, you know, hopping on to the fest, what do you have going on these days, especially over at the Athletic?
- [02:36]
Jake Hofer
I mean, the full draft kit is basically almost done at this point, but I will say I actually did one by the suggestion of one of the heads of all the New York Times said the draft mistakes that people make because I brought it up at a meeting that we were doing. Somebody asked me that in a Q and A. And so it's the biggest draft mistake everybody makes every single year. Well, not everybody, but you guys know this. Wasting your bench. So if you want to go see how you stop wasting your bench, you can check that out.
- [03:03]
Ryan Warmley
That sounds great. I know that's. That's been a talking point for you a lot this summer as we've done, you know, more shows together. Is. Is the not wasting your bench? I know that's a big, you know, point of your. So definitely, like, great piece of advice. Everybody should go check out everything that Jake is working on over at the.
- [03:17]
Jake Hofer
Athletic, which ties in today's piece. This. I mean, what we're doing today. These are 10 pieces that should be on your bench instead of replacing some of the names.
- [03:24]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, these guys are mostly not starters, so, I mean, some of them might be, but yeah, a lot of bench spots, guys that can. That can break out that we want to be looking at. Reminder for everybody that all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com rankings. Guys, let's dive right in. Like I said, we're going to go five to one here, so we'll be ending with kind of the biggest breakout candidate. But obviously these are guys that, you know, we. We believe in to some degree. All ten of these names. Jake, we'll start with you. Who's number five?
- [03:51]
Jake Hofer
My number five. I'm going to quarterback first. I'm going to go to Bryce Young. I know a lot of people saw the end of last year and talked about his passing upside. And let's be real, he looked better than he had at any point in his NFL career. But I think the more interesting part for me was the rushing. And it's not like he's running for 700 yards over the course of the season. It's just that he Started calling his own number down the stretch, which partly hurt, you know, dinged Hubbard a little bit. But I never thought that Bryce Young was going to step into the NFL and be like, ah, 6, 7, 800 yards. But can he be in that realm of 3 to 400 where he chips in 5, 6, 7 on the ground just because he has that size and ability to take his own number? I know people are going to say, oh, he's not big, no, but he's thick. And for the height that he is and the thickness, he can handle a few of those runs. Handles a few of those shots at the goal line. And again, if he runs for five, six, seven touchdowns on a top of three or 400 yards. Oh, by the way, who we're talking about last year, who did this for the first time ever in his career? Baker Mayfield. And no, I don't think Bryce is going to throw for 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns. But I'm just saying, when you add that facet of we were hoping to see the passing carrying over to this season, if that does at all, and he adds that dimension, we might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one and he's outside the top 20 if you're going to double dip late. McCarthy is a great one, but I don't think that Bryce Young's that far behind McCarthy for their potential ceilings.
- [05:12]
Ryan Warmley
I really agree with this call. When I look at where he's, he's QB22 in ECR right now and I look at that and I go, I feel reasonably confident actually he's going to Finish better than QB22, assuming health because.
- [05:25]
Jake Hofer
There is significantly worse. 22 is wrong one way or the other.
- [05:30]
Ryan Warmley
But the problem I think is like it's just such a deep position that I'm like, well who am I moving down? Like if I really want to play my flag and say he should be higher, I don't know who I would move down here.
- [05:39]
Jake Hofer
I'll tell you, I have him in front of Tua because Tua's QB17 like that. Every single one. Yeah, I have him in front of Gino because this Gino yeah, had a good season, but is he really going to see a better season with the Raiders? He's going to be QB 16, 17, 18 and those are fine quarterbacks, but I don't want QB 16. I don't even want QB 14. I want somebody who could potentially be top 10. And like I said, 22 is wrong. Like if he gets the top 10. Cool. Yay. We're all super excited. If he's a bust, you move on to the next one. Maybe you double tapped with McCarthy or Love or Stroud on a bounce back season and that's why I'm going for him.
- [06:14]
Ryan Warmley
It's just remarkable how many names I like at the position. I mean look, we're into the early to mid-20s at the position and the names are Bryce Young, Michael Penix Jr. Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford if his back's okay. Cam Ward, number one overall pick. I'm like these, these guys are not even QB2s in a lot of cases. Some of those names. So it's just a remarkably deep position. D. Vera, obviously the guy in this like 20s range that you like most is JJ McCarthy. That's old hat at this point. We know that besides JJ McCarthy, is Bryce Young one of your favorites in this range? Because I think Jake has had a great case and like we kind of even already saw it last year. I think Bryce Young is a great target late for the position.
- [06:52]
Derek Brown
Yeah, he's a fantastic target man. Like especially in super flex drafts, he's a fantastic target. And, and for everything that Jake laid out and just to give more context to that breakout weeks 12 through 18, he was the QB8 and fantasy points per game. The dude averaged 25.4 rushing yards per game, which might not sound like a lot. If he did that over the entirety of the full season. That would have been the 12th best amongst quarterbacks. So the line that I was kind of staring at. Jake, I want to get your opinion on this. Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence? Because I feel like those two like it is. This wasn't what with me.
- [07:28]
Jake Hofer
I put it this way. They're almost, almost back to back for me. Trevor Lawrence.
- [07:33]
Derek Brown
Yeah.
- [07:34]
Jake Hofer
So worst case, Trevor Lawrence is last year. Trevor Lawrence before obviously the injury. So like if you want to say, hey, I'm going for somebody with QB1 potential, but I don't want to have to drop them. Trevor Lawrence is your pick. If you're going to double tap like I said, Bryce Young would be my. I actually think Bryce Young's ceiling is higher even with weapons that Trevor Lawrence has agreed.
- [07:53]
Ryan Warmley
I love Young this year. This is, this is, we can move on from it. But I just think this is a great pick. He rushed for five rushing touchdowns in the last six games last season. And, and you add this alpha number one receiver that you know, I know a lot of us really like too. And he might be appearing on this list later. So just great Call strong agreement across the board. D Ro let's go to your number five.
- [08:14]
Derek Brown
I'm gonna take the low hanging fruit here. I mean it was the name that was going to get brought up by either Jake or myself. So I'm just going to go ahead and get it over with. I know I'm cheating a little bit because I understand Bill Crosby Merit Jacori Crosby Merit on the site and the ADPs, it's not going to catch up fast enough. Right now he's sitting in those like RB 60 to 70 range. Updating my rankings. He's in the RB3 range now and I'm doing some forecasting but I got to bring him up here because everybody's talking about him and I agree with the process. Like I know I've seen all the tweets and everybody out there like all right at the 103, who are we taking? Is it Bill? Are you taking Justin Jefferson or CD Lamb? But like for in all reality sake, If Brian Robinson Jr. Is gone from this backfield, I think Jaqu Krusky Merit is a name that we do need to be discussing. I moved him up in my rankings right now. At the time of recording this, I have him at RB32. So I am forecasting that Brian Robinson Jr. Is cut or traded. Now if that doesn't happen, we get closer to week one as you're listening to this rankings and things like that will change. But I'm putting him right into that Brian Robinson Jr. Role and I understand Chris Rodriguez is there and I've loved Chris Rodriguez in previous seasons. This isn't an anti Chris Rodriguez take but to me if you really believe in Chris Rodriguez one, why didn't Washington use him at all last year? Why was he buried? Why'd they go draft another running back instead of putting more faith behind him and Jechroy Crosby Merit even in the draft process, people go go back and check out the NFL draft show for fantasy pros. Talked about him. There's as a player who was being disrespected, like if this guy didn't get screwed over by the NCAA in 2024, I had a fourth round grade on him. He was comfortably inside like my top 20. I think I had him at like RB16, RB17 in my rookie rankings post draft. I mean he was fantastic. Like if you go back to 2023 and I understand it was at New Mexico, I get that level of competition. We're still discussing a player that was 19th in yards of your contact per attempt amongst all FBS running backs with at least 100 carries and 12th and elusive rating. So playing this early down role in the commander's offense, if he gets that role, people need to be drafting him somewhere around like a little bit outside of like that top 100. Like if you're sitting there and you're looking at all these RB3 handcuff type of candidates, that. And he might go above that because again, the ADP is rising on him. But I think that's the range where we should be discussing him. Because if he has that role in this offense, in the goal line role and Austin Eckler keeps his standalone pass game role, we're discussing a guy that like depending on how touchdowns go and how the early down volume goes, he's in that fringe RB2, RB3 conversation.
- [10:54]
Ryan Warmley
So let me jump in and point out. So we actually literally just this week launched something called Real Time adp.
- [11:03]
Derek Brown
You didn't bring it up. I was going to. Worm.
- [11:05]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. And so this is a great example of that. Now this is still going to sound pretty low because people are still in the process of catching up because this is all like very recent. So I think this number will continue to go up even higher. He is up to an early 12th round pick. He had been multiple rounds behind that prior to this. So he's already jumped a lot. If you're looking at real time ADP, it's got him at sort of like the 1204 right now. Again, that is, that is multiple rounds up over what it was just, just over 24 hours ago. That is going to continue to rise. But Real Time ADP is this new feature we have on the site. I would highly recommend everybody check it out. ADP in general is kind of a lagging indicator at times. This is going to kind of keep that updated. We have our data science team, which is amazing kind of work to put this together and show like where guys are actually going like as of this week, as of even just the day before, as of that day when you get to these really busy draft weekends with our synced leagues. So keep an eye on that for examples like this. I think back to like Damian Pierce a couple years ago when it became clear he was going to start for Houston like late August, he jumped up to like, you know, fifth, sixth round pick when he had been going away. This is sort of a similar scenario where he's going to keep rising. Jake, two questions. One, what do you think of Krasky Merit? And two, are you officially going to call him Jakori or Bill it's got to be Bill.
- [12:20]
Jake Hofer
You know, the funny thing is I'd be more upset by that. But if anybody knows my story, that my Jake name is actually not my name and what my real name is, I can't get too angry at him. So that's a podcast for another day. But, like, I like Crosby Merritt. I'm slightly behind where Dbro has him. I am at 37, but I'm right behind like Tank Bigsby Judkins with his situation. But I think the Judkins situation is one where he should fall into because Judgins still isn't with the Browns. Like, we got the news that he's cleared and then everything. Like, but we're still waiting and we're assuming he's going to be the lead. But I think that's a fair spot to have him because assuming Brian Robinson is gone, we're assuming Crosby Merritt's going to be the lead. I brought this up when we did the mock draft. It's not that I don't like Crosby Merritt. I just think that what Dbro just said, like, Rodriguez is a good talent. I would put him third on this depth chart. But I think the one, the interesting part here is Eckler's role is safe. Echler is going to be Echler no matter who is the lead. And that's where I'm saying like, okay, take Crosby Merritt, give him Brian Robinson's role. Well, then he puts up Brian Robinson's numbers. And it's not that I don't like that, it's just where's the ceiling? And I think that kind of say you're potentially looking at back end RB2. But I think that might be it for him just because unless Echler gets hurt, I just don't think there's enough touches. Hell, the worst case scenario is Rodriguez is involved and all of a sudden we're looking at a full blown committee and we're banging our heads against the wall because we also have a running back or a running quarterback who every time we have these kind of situations, you go back to Cam Newton, Justin Fields, like, we want one running back next to those guys. We don't want to possibly three. So I think where we have him now, like I said, I have him at 36. Debro has him slightly higher. I think that's where he needs to be because you're taking the upside chance but also baking in enough risk that he's not the guy. Don't go draft them in week five this weekend because you want to look super smart when you're, when your league is drafting.
- [14:09]
Ryan Warmley
I had a joke that I put out on Social. It was, it was me drafting Jakory Crosby Merritt in the third round at my live draft and the image was just the office have I feel God in this Chili's tonight? Like I, I think people are going to to feel God with some of these rounds. They're going to be taking the bill in at some point this season. But you know, he's one of those fun players that you have every August that pops up and there's just a lot of hype about and so it's one of the, one of the fun stories of preseason. I want to take a second to tell everybody about DraftKings. Get in the game best ball is live at DraftKings. $15 million is on the line with real stakes and real excitement. Best Ball is the biggest fantasy contest at DraftKings. We're talking a $15 million guaranteed prize pool with two millionaires being crowned for first and second place. Play season long fantasy football the DraftKings way. With best Ball, there's no waiver wires and no roster management. You get bigger rosters so injuries won't end your season. Just draft your team and you're set. If a shot at winning a share of $15 million isn't enough to get you excited, check this out. DraftKings is offering everyone a draft one get one special. Your $20 entry fee scores you a bonus ticket. Download the DraftKings app and use code Fantasy Pros. That's called Fantasy Pros for all customers who enter the NFL Best Ball $15 million millionaire contest to get a bonus ticket and get a shot at being crowned one of two millionaires only on.
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Jake Hofer
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$20 entry fee required. Reward expires in 30 days. See terms@draftkings.com NFL Best Ball I'm Dan. He's Ty.
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Derek Brown
Hello.
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Jake Hofer
And we're the solid verbal college football podcast.
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Derek Brown
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Jake Hofer
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Derek Brown
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- [17:01]
Ryan Warmley
Hola, it's Honey German and my podcast, Gracias, Come Again is back. This season we're going even deeper into the world of music and entertainment with raw and honest conversations with some of your favorite Latin artists and celebrities. You didn't have to audition? No, I didn't audition.
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Jake Hofer
I haven't auditioned like over 25 years.
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Ryan Warmley
Oh, wow. That's a real G talk right there. Oh, yeah. We've got some of the biggest actors, musicians, content creators and culture shifters sharing their real stories of failure and success. You were destined to be a star. We talk all about what's viral and trending with a little bit of chisme, a lot of laughs and those amazing vivas you've come come to expect. And of course we'll explore deeper topics dealing with identity struggles and all the issues affecting our Latin community. You feel like you get a little whitewashed because you have to do the code switching.
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Derek Brown
I won't say whitewash because at the.
- [17:53]
Jake Hofer
End of the day, you know, I'm me.
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Ryan Warmley
Yeah.
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Derek Brown
But the whole pretending and co, you know, it takes a toll on you.
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Ryan Warmley
Listen to the new season of grass has come again as part of Michael Tura podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
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Get fired up, y'. All.
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Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite.
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People and an incomparable soccer icon, Megan.
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Rapinoe to the show and we had a blast. We talked about her recent 40th birthday celebrations. Co hosting a podcast with her fiance sue, bird watching former teammates retire and more. Never a dull moment with Pino.
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Derek Brown
Take a listen. What do you miss the most about.
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Ryan Warmley
Being of a part pro athlete?
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Derek Brown
The final. The final and the locker room.
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Ryan Warmley
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Jake Hofer
Just, you can't replicate. You can't get back showing up to.
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Derek Brown
The locker room every morning just to talk. We've got more incredible guests like the legendary Candice Parker and college superstar Az Foot.
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Jake Hofer
I mean, seriously, y', all, the guest list is absolutely stacked for season two.
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Derek Brown
And you know, we're always going to keep you up to speed on all.
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Ryan Warmley
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- [19:12]
Ryan Warmley
All right, Jake, who is your number four breakout?
- [19:14]
Jake Hofer
Yeah, I'm gonna go to Cedric Tillman. And this was kind of somebody I was looking to get way late in drafts, even before we got the Joe Flacco news at quarterback. And even if they do turn to Sanders or Gabriel at some point, I don't think that's the end of the world for Tillman. But we all remember last excited we got during that stretch and it really lasted four games. The fourth game wasn't all super exciting, but we're talking about not just the touchdowns because of course that's going to inflate the numbers. He didn't have 100 yards in any of those games. He had 99 in one of them. But the biggest thing about it is we were talking about the targets. We're talking about 40 targets over four games. Cedric Tillman was. It's not like Jerry Judy was dead at that point. It's not like we're talking about he wasn't in existence. So 40 targets over those four games. I don't think Tillman is going to average 10 targets per game and have 170 this year. But the upside of that, before he got hurt, even if he's just averaging 6, 7 targets per game for somebody that's going super late in drafts, that can be the number two. And I know in Joku's a thing, but let's talk about the number. I think Ian Hardest was the first to bring it up about Joe Flacco over his last 17 full games where he didn't get hurt or come in. For somebody who got hurt. Over his last 17 games, he's the lead leader in passing yards. Like the dude's going to fling it even on the Browns. So yes, they could change quarterback at some point, whether it's Flacco's play or an injury. But I just look at Tillman as like at least a hot start to the season that maybe you flip before that situation comes up.
- [20:37]
Ryan Warmley
I think my favorite stat that I ever put on the fantasy pros social accounts was in like December a couple of years ago when Joe Flacco had more passing touchdowns than Kenny Pickett ever had in his career. And he just was like odd in this heater. And I also just enjoyed knocking Kenny Pickett. But yeah, Flacco like, so I told the story before we did a fantasy pros. We do like a double NFL stadium trip one weekend every year. And and for the content team, it's often hard to go. I did attend it last year, so I was super fun and we did last year one of the games was Ravens at Browns. It was like week eight or whatever is the one that the Ravens lost against Jameis Winston to the Browns Ravens mentioned. I talk about the Ravens losing.
- [21:22]
Derek Brown
I'm just saying.
- [21:23]
Jake Hofer
I'm just saying.
- [21:25]
Ryan Warmley
Looks so dominant. It's one of those where you watch a guy in person and he just passes the eye test so well that you're like this guy. Like, I'm just convinced that Cedric Tillman is a stud and I will believe that until the day he retires, even if stats and future performance proved me wrong because I watched him look so utterly dominant in person once. I just think he's a really good player and I think the injury at the end of last season, the concussion stuff, like, is coloring the opinion of everybody and like maybe not remembering what he was doing in those first couple of weeks. Now quarterback situation really matters. So Flacco being in there is great. We hope that lasts from the Cedric Tillman perspective. But this is another one that I like. I really strongly agree with you. Jake on segment.
- [22:06]
Jake Hofer
Well, look at this. I just did some quick numbers. Not even going back to Ian's Tweet. His last 14 games where he was the full starter beginning to end. 4,200 yards.
- [22:16]
Derek Brown
That's insane. Not too bad, not too bad.
- [22:20]
Ryan Warmley
DBRA, what do you got?
- [22:22]
Derek Brown
I mean, well, Tillman, man, like, I mean the volume can be definitely there. And I think one of the things that helps him like maybe ascend quicker as far as the number two target or at least competing within Joker for that spot is, dude, I was all in on Deontay Johnson as like a last round pick. The vibes have been pretty bad throughout camp, like came in out of shape, things like that. Like there's worries like, again, like, like Jake just mentioned. Like, I don't know if he's on the roster week one. So again, like my worries were, you know, and the thing that I was talking about earlier in the off season was if Deontay Johnson didn't get cut. Like if he didn't move on from Carolina where we'll be drafting him. But you come in and like a team offers you a contract that you were like just sitting at home on the couch for much of the off season and you're basically out of shape, you're not ready. That's not good, dude. So, yes, that increases the pathway for Cedric Tillman.
- [23:09]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. All right, D Ro, let's go to.
- [23:10]
Derek Brown
Your number four dude. We've talked about him on a bunch of shows. Need to talk about him again here. It's Tucker Craft. I mean going as the tight end 11, I mean what he did on a per route basis and we all have our own takes about, okay, who is the packers wide receiver to draft this year? Who's the guy that could step up? Might not be a wide receiver at all. Could be their tight end and the skill set. I mean he's an athletic marvel. So we know that the high end athleticism is tied to possible high end outcomes or at least gives you that opportunity at the tight end position. It's one of the most correlated or highly correlated positions to athleticism and all of fantasy. Like we talk about a year after year. Like just because you run really fast in a straight line doesn't mean that you're going to be a good wide receiver. We see running backs who run four sixes and stuff like that produce because of volume and what have you in fantasy. But with tight end, you've got to be a top tier athlete or you're not going to put up possible top tier numbers. And craft, I mean the guy is just a medical marvel. Like he's, he's athletic. As I'll get out, you look at the per route metrics last year, I mean, yes, he was 20th in target share. Yes, he was 27th first reach here. If those numbers come around because again, target volume is a reflection of not only of talent and those targets are earned. Kraft could earn a crap ton. He's, I mean he's a quietly good bet to maybe lead the packers and targets this year. And if he does that, he's gonna have a massive breakout season because the per route efficiency was awesome last year. Like amongst all 47 qualifying tight ends last year, Tucker Kraft, 12th most receiving arts, again on limited volume that I talked about. He was seventh in yards per route, running third in missed tackles force and he was first in yak per reception. So the per route numbers scream that if the Green Bay packers want to feature arguably their most talented Pass catcher on that roster. That could be Tucker Craft. And if this all happens, dude, he could be sniffing like top five, top six type of production this year.
- [25:05]
Ryan Warmley
Do you think, Debra, there's a chance? I mean, you said top five, top six. Do you think there's a chance of him breaking into the top three or is that just too strong with Bowers, McBride and Kittle?
- [25:14]
Derek Brown
It's possible, but. But with those guys, what they need to happen for him to even sniff that rarefied air, the packers are going to have to lean back into the passing game and not like in a league average passing rate, but they're going to have to be somewhere in like the top 14, 15 type of phylum as far as passing rate for him to get the target volume to even be close to competing with those guys. If that doesn't happen, the. No, I think the more like high end expectations for him is probably top five, top six.
- [25:45]
Ryan Warmley
Jake, what do you think? Do you think there's enough volume there for anybody in this packers offense? I mean, the reputation like Debra was alluding to is that the ball gets spread out a lot. That's what a lot of people talk about. Do you think Kraft can rise above that and have this kind of like top 5ish tight end season?
- [26:00]
Jake Hofer
I do. Mostly because it's a twofold factor here, is that we expect better for Jordan Love. The guy was basically dealing with an injury from the gate, jump out of the gate and then got injured again. So he's dealing with two last year. I know he's already got the thumb, but that's on the other hand. I think that if you see Jordan Love bounce back, you want to talk about injuries. We are also dealing with injuries to Dobbs, Wicks, Savion Williams. He was even heard the other rookie, like it's down the line. We have one clear option. Matthew golden is clearly going to be the one, but is actually Reed even got banged up this preseason. Like who's healthy? So like the biggest question here might be this might be the Chiefs, this might be the other teams where the tight end is actually the number two. And if so, I was actually going to ask DBRO this because I'm really curious is back when the draft happened, I made a joke and people came for me. I was like, but I made a joke. It's like, it's weird that they took the better tight end around later when they took Craft after Musgrave and oh my God, the people that came for me on that one. Just wait. So were you on Me with that one because that's.
- [26:59]
Derek Brown
We were hand holding.
- [27:00]
Jake Hofer
Okay.
- [27:01]
Derek Brown
There's a receipt out there. I tweeted this right after the draft. I was a big Tucker Kraft guy in that draft class, and I was not in a Luke Musgrave. I tweeted this and people can go search X for it. It's still out there somewhere in the ether that this was the same exact situation as when Baltimore drafted Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews and Kraft was the Andrews in this conversation.
- [27:22]
Ryan Warmley
Now who's bringing up the Ravens? Debra?
- [27:23]
Derek Brown
Well, I mean, I. I'm just trying.
- [27:26]
Jake Hofer
To help you hit the over here.
- [27:27]
Ryan Warmley
No, no, I actually, I actually agree that I think that's a good comp in terms of like the better guy going later. I think I might be misremembering, but I think what the year the Ravens took. Likely it was after they took Kohler. It was in the same round. I forget who they took first, but that's like another one where like the better tight end goes later. I. I think likely might have been taken. I can't remember they were taking this.
- [27:45]
Derek Brown
I'm gonna.
- [27:46]
Ryan Warmley
It was the year they had like five fourth round picks. So I don't remember the order. But. But to your point, like the. The clear example there is like Andrews and Hearst as like a comp is the same. I totally agree with you. Like, like Craft. I liked Craft better too. I'm not as in the weeds with the prospects as you guys are, but like, I also liked Craft better, so I would love to see him get the volume for this to pan out. I. I'm pretty invested in Craft and dynasty. I. I think he's a really talented player and I just like you talk about D Row. The per route metrics are so good that like, I want to see him get more opportunity because I just think he's a really good player.
- [28:18]
Derek Brown
Yes, to your point. Kohler went at 423 and I likely was 11 picks behind him. So yeah, spot on. Raise it. Ravens knowledge. Of course. We would expect nothing less from Worm.
- [28:29]
Ryan Warmley
I think what it was was they wanted Calvin Austin and then the Steelers like traded up and took Austin and so then the had to switch and they were like, well, we do like likely even though we already got a tight end. So yeah, I mean, it. It hap. It's happened on more than one occasion that a team like takes multiple tight ends in the same draft and the second guy is just better. All right, Jake, let's go to your number three breakout candidate.
- [28:52]
Jake Hofer
This one might feel a little Layup Ish. Just because of the recent news but I just wanted to point out Braylon Allen to call back you and I. I'm talking to worm here on this one. This was like two months ago at this point where we were talking about Justin Fields and looped in the running back situation and I said it was explained. I think it was one of those running backs were not drafting in quotes or something like that. And I was saying why I was out on Breeze hall and to check the receipts and this isn't to be like haha, this is all we're doing today is checking receipts and victory lapping. But I want to bring up the reason of why I was off Breeze hall and it's because if you look back at Justin Fields teams and back with the Bears in his best season, the running back that was next to him when they were inside the 10 and getting the touchdown equity was the bigger back because it offsets field style when you get to the goal line. The pass catching elusive running back kind of bottles things up a little bit for what they're both. You basically have two guys trying to do the same thing. So you bring in the bigger back and you kind of offset what the defenses prepare for you. Now you have to stuff the middle but also extend outside to prevent fields or the elusiveness. So that's why I brought it up is like I was really concerned that Braylon Allen was not just going to be a timeshare but he was going to say steal these important touchdown equity carries in a backfield where we go back to the running quarterback is that's kind of what we have to chase when you're talking about a split backfield. And I don't think Breeze hall is going to be terrible, I would still take him as a mid low RB2 but I think Braylon Allen's in the conversation to steal the work. And I would almost give it the reverse of the Steelers last year. Like basically if Jalen Warren was the lead and Ajay Harris was the second piece, I think that's what we can see for the jets. Which again goes back to the touchdown equity. And all that being said, I do think there's a non zero chance where he's so good that all of a sudden Breece hall is kicked into the complimentary piece, that's a possible outcome here. So I think that Braylon Allen not only getting to relevancy where you can use them, but also having the upside if Breeze hall were to stumble or hell if he got hurt. Braylon Allen would be a top 20 running back option. So I think there's a lot of appeal for Braylon Allen those mid rounds.
- [30:54]
Ryan Warmley
Where are you at on Allen? Is he somebody that you are reaching for like in the anticipation of maybe a better workload and a possible breakout or. Or are you going against Jake on this one?
- [31:04]
Derek Brown
No, I'm fine with Braylon Allen where he goes. I think if you're trying to catch up with running back or if you're playing the outcomes, the possible outcomes in the jets backfield, there's an easy like there's a non zero chance that Breeze hall is gone. They trade him away at some point this season and Braylon Allen is the guy that where you plug in and he's maybe like a touchdown dependent flex at the beginning of the year and maybe he vaults to being an RB2 because I do believe whether it's Breeze hall and Braylon Allen or Isaiah Davis and Braylon Allen, this is going to stay a committee. But Kim Braylon Allen usurp or can he take the lead of that committee? Because the vibes around Breeze hall and the preseason usage we've seen so far, it's been split almost down the middle and Aaron Glenn has been true to his word. Like they're going to use multiple backs. So like where he goes in drafts is totally fine. Taking a shot on him.
- [31:52]
Ryan Warmley
Where's he ranked for you, Debra?
- [31:54]
Derek Brown
Oh, I've got him somewhere in the RB3 conversation somewhere.
- [31:58]
Ryan Warmley
He's RB46 in ECR right now.
- [32:01]
Derek Brown
I've got him somewhere in that RB3 conversation. Depending on the day. I'm still kind of like today. I'm kind of updating ranks.
- [32:06]
Jake Hofer
So you take Braylon Allen or Joe Mixon if you draft today.
- [32:09]
Derek Brown
Oh, good Lord. Braylon Allen. I'm not. Joe Mixon's is straight up. Joe Mixon is off my draft board. Not.
- [32:15]
Jake Hofer
Not even around 14.
- [32:16]
Derek Brown
Not.
- [32:17]
Ryan Warmley
Not.
- [32:17]
Derek Brown
I'm not price enforcing. I want nothing to do with Joe.
- [32:20]
Ryan Warmley
Joe.
- [32:21]
Jake Hofer
Somebody asked me that the other day, what's the price enforcement on Joe Mixon? I was like, none. Zero.
- [32:27]
Derek Brown
Yeah. Yeah. Not doing it. No.
- [32:31]
Ryan Warmley
Cannot have less interest. It's there. There's a great sign that I've used as a meme on the fancy pros account before. It's some car dealership and it just says zero percent interest. That is me with Joe Mixon and drafts. I have zero percent interest.
- [32:43]
Jake Hofer
Hey, who runs the fancy pro social account, by the way?
- [32:46]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. All right, let's go to D. RO you're number three.
- [32:52]
Derek Brown
Yeah. So the third guy again, like kind of we're talking about Lohan Fruit here. I feel like this is obvious but we got to talk about him, man. Ricky Pierce all like he's at wide receiver 42 and ADP. Like you see him anywhere from like the wide receiver 3 to the wide receiver 4 range. I want to stay above consensus because I think the breakout is real and it's common, man. Like I went back and and this past Sunday I watched all the all 22 so far of the preseason of Ricky Piersol earlier this off season I went back and I watched all of his routes from last season and the usage changed throughout the season for Piersall and I think we're seeing a different player than we saw at any point so far in the preseason than we saw any point last year. His Christmas getting off the line, his releases, his in route, ability to gear down and separate has been fantastic. You've seen in the preseason like there's been talks about him and Brock Purdy working out in the off season and you saw the continuity in the preseason. There's one particular route where Pierce hall was either running a slant or an over route. I forget the exact route he was running, but during that he's crossing the middle of the field and you're like, dude, if you can going the way you're going, you're just going to get washed out in the play. He sits down as Purdy's moving to his left. He sits down in the middle of his own coverage. Purdy, it's like he anticipated he was going to do that and nails him on the crosser. And so I think you're seeing the continuity, the role and the player's talent just bubble to the top. And then when we like zoom out about this offense, we don't know when we're going to see a healthy and effective version of Brandon iuk. Juwan Jennings is dealing with the calf injury. Whether that's real or contract related we can all discuss. But then it's this passing attack boils down to especially in the early going like, like everybody keeps talking about Juwan Jennings and what he did last year. Dude, what if that's the Ricky Piersol role this year? What if he's the guy getting the 31st rate share? And we saw that at the very two last games of last season where he was operating that role and he looked freaking amazing at doing it like in those two games. And I know it's a small sample but we have seen him flash. We have seen them feature in him In a high volume role where he was the wide receiver 7 and the wide receiver 14 in those two weeks he almost a 22 target share and he had a 30.4% first reach here and he crushed. So I think we're looking at like yes, this is a guy who has former first round draft capital. You look at all the parts or pieces around him and it just screams we need to be above market and this guy is heading for a huge season.
- [35:22]
Ryan Warmley
It's funny because we did a breakout segment with Andy Barrons and Andrew Erickson on the fest yesterday and Andy pick picked Ricky Piersol and he said the same thing you did at the beginning, which is it kind of feels like low hanging fruit. Like might be too obvious of a pick but I think it's worth continuing to bring up because he is still ranked. I mean his, his ECR is wide receiver 36. Barons was saying he was like I have him as like borderline like as an RB2. Like this is a guy that should be going inside the top 24 given all the stuff that you just listed out. And he was, you know, making similar points yesterday. Like I, I don't know if you would rank him there that that kind of tier of receivers is very big. We've talked about that before Jake. Those like kind of mid-20s into the 30s range of receivers can go a lot of different directions. But Peircell is currently at the back end of that technically is at the top of tier six right now. And that just like it's not going up despite the fact that we keep bringing him up and saying this is too obvious of a pick. But we have to keep bringing it up because he is still ranked in an area that just, just feels too low, Jake.
- [36:21]
Jake Hofer
So when I opened this list, the first name I noticed on DBros was like son of a. He took Ricky Pearsall just, I mean I just knew it like and to be fair, like I actually had him as my number one. So. Haha dear, or I take you one step further. But if you weren't watching the video, I pointed at Dbro when he said one thing and I'm glad he brought this up. So when Pearsall came out of college, it actually said coming out of college he's Darius Slayton right now because he doesn't work Zone well. And what Dibro just said is like he will run straight through the openings in zone. He won't sit down, he won't find the space. He'll just keep running and not know when to stop the routes or pull them off. And you saw that development shortly at the end of last year. Debra brought up a really good point in the fact that yeah, everybody's like well he didn't have much through his first couple games until the end. He was being used differently. Again, there's development with how the team and the player both go hand in hand and everybody wants to talk about Jennings and admittedly so. But let's talk about if not for that 40 point game after that and Jennings was already the dude at that point. After that he had five more games of double digit points. Three of those were between 10 and 12, not even huge games and after that point as well six games of seven points or fewer. It's not even like he was gangbusters after that huge game. He was basically our boomer bust wide receiver. 4 so if you're looking who steps into this role, which is the one thing I want to bring up too, as I said that a few months ago, is I know D Rock of this too is that when IUK comes back I kept bringing up iuk's threat is Jennings like Jennings loses his job when IUK comes back. IUK does not replace Pearsall. Pearsall is stays Piercel fits the Debo role. He's not Deebo but he fits that role and that's what's most important here. I cannot agree more on Ricky Pearsall.
- [38:06]
Ryan Warmley
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- [39:25]
Jake Hofer
I actually forgot my number. I was so jazzed up for Ricky Pierce.
- [39:29]
Ryan Warmley
I love it.
- [39:30]
Jake Hofer
It's Marvin Mims. And this is going to be strange for anybody that's listened to me throughout the years because I was never the biggest Marvin Mims fan. One of the things that I said about him was he's a possession wide receiver, which immediately creates a perception. People lose their minds for that one because people think possession, they think 10 yards and down. My point about that is that Marvin mims can be 25, 40 yards downfield, but he catches the ball and goes down. That was my point. It's like wherever he catches it, end of story, it's over. There's no yak with him. And that was my biggest concern, is that it's just where he's going to be on the field when he catches the ball and then cool, whatever. So he's really dictating on how many targets he gets, how big of his plays are, and yes, he has tons of big playability. Somebody else who's developing and not surprisingly developing under Sean Payton and I know there's been late talk with all the other wide receivers and maybe another one steps up, but as of what we've seen so far, he's clearly been the number two. He's been run out there as the number two. He's coming off the field with the starters and if he has any development underneath the Sean Payton. I was not a huge fan of Pat Bryant, but I like Pat Bryant after the drafting position because like, hey, there's some similarities to like a Michael Thomas big slot option. Well, he doesn't always have to run in the slot, that being Marvin Mims, but a similar style profile if that Sean Payton has turned him into that, which is very possible. And now we're talking about Marvin Mims clearly as the number two and potentially having 100 and plus 100 plus targets because here's the really other interesting part, not to come for Evan Ingram. But Evan Ingram's use so far in the preseason has not been the joker and not been a very heavy target basis as he's been rolling out some two tight end sets and even some single tight end sets which haven't included Ingram. So if we're looking for who the two is, similar to the Kraft situation, the two that we know right now is actually Marvin Mims.
- [41:17]
Ryan Warmley
I want to ask you this, Jake. Marvin Mims is wide receiver 58 in ECR. Cedric Tillman is wide receiver 57 in ECR. Who do you like?
- [41:28]
Jake Hofer
Marvin Mims more than 10 and that's why he's higher up on my list. But I would take both well over ECR right now.
- [41:34]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, late, late 50s is pretty low for those guys. Like Braden Ayuk is ahead of both of them with his injury stuff going on. Christian Kirk is ahead of both of them. I'd rather take them.
- [41:45]
Jake Hofer
Darnold Mooney. Ray Morris was like, we hope to see Darnell Mooney this season. He said this season. How are we still taking Mooney over both of them?
- [41:55]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, Bateman, who I like is ahead of both of them. I think that's a mistake. Oh good.
- [42:00]
Jake Hofer
Tell me what four good games Bateman's going to have and then you can draft.
- [42:03]
Ryan Warmley
Exactly.
- [42:03]
Jake Hofer
If you can tell me the four good weeks go right ahead.
- [42:07]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. So yeah, no, they're, they're, they're late. That's, it's funny that they're both back to back. Dro, you have a long history with Marvin Mims. What do you think about him this year as a breakout candidate?
- [42:16]
Derek Brown
Dude, I think it's very telling and I was honestly shocked when he came out. And what was it? Was it preseason week one or week two and he ran, what was it, 15? I'm pulling this all out of memory. 15 of the 16 snaps that the starters ran and he's on the field and two wide receiver sets. Like I wasn't expecting that dude, to be honest. Like I. Especially if you look at his usage last year, it was so gadgety. It was backfield stuff, backfilled routes, his design target rate was through the freaking roof. And I was like, oh dude, this is, this is not a guy we're gonna like worry about this year. I bumped up his ranking like I had him languishing in like the low 60s, high 70s. I bumped him up to where I'm basically kind of like even with ECR. Like I'm in the like somewhere in the 50s on a daily basis with him because I want to be even with ECR with him because that full time role I wasn't expecting. But again like it comes back to the preseason. How. What do we take away from, from their usage? What is good like good usage nuggets and what is paralysis by over analysis? And I think the usage from Marvin Mims is something we do need to into account with how we're looking at his ranking, how we're looking at and projecting his role for this year. And again, as we learn more about these players, what do you take away and what do you just toss in the, in the trash and say, Ah, that's. That's noise. That's garbage.
- [43:44]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, let's go to your number two. You, bro.
- [43:47]
Derek Brown
Oh, man. It's a guy that I've. I've been above consensus. Remain above consensus. It's funny. Jake and I were talking about him pre show before we turned on the mics and the. And the camera cameras, but George Pickens, baby. Breakout season here for it. I. I tweeted this out and I fully believe this. This year, the Dallas Cowboys are going to be this year's version of the Cincinnati Bengals. And in this comparison I'm making, George Pickens can be the T. Higgins in this offense. I bumped up his ranking. I still think adp, ecr, best ball, all the things he's still going to freaking late. The breakout is coming and for a player that I'm comfortably ranking him aggressively as a wide receiver too. And he's being drafted as a wide receiver. 3. The talent is there now. The volume is going to be there. Going from a Pittsburgh Steelers offense last year, those bottom 10 in passing attempts to a Dallas offense we know is going to be top five to 10 in passing attempts. It's wheels up for George Pickens, man. And, and last year, Arthur Smith could not stop him from putting up strong per route metrics, where before the hamstring injury weeks 1 through 13, this dude was 18th in separation and 8th in yards per route run. He's not coming off the field. We're not going to get any of the Arthur Smith ignorance this year. Like Dallas knows where their bread needs to be buttered. And George Pickens, all the vibes are awesome. That's the other thing in a contract year where we're talking about Jerry's doing stupid stuff with Micah Parsons. Everything is aces up right now so far in the preseason and camp for George Pickens. I don't know if Dallas pays him or not, but he is going to put up one heck of a season and really make the case that Jerry's gonna have to open up the pocketbook yet again.
- [45:30]
Ryan Warmley
Where do you have him ranked D. Ro he's currently ECR. Is wide receiver 29 and a half PPR scoring. Is that too hot? It sounds like you're saying this too low.
- [45:38]
Derek Brown
Top 15 wide receiver. And I'm gonna, I'm gonna stand on that that top 15, I figured you'd.
- [45:43]
Ryan Warmley
Be high, much higher, but I didn't realize top 15. Wow. What do you think about that, Jake?
- [45:48]
Jake Hofer
That's. I. I'm wowed by it, but I think it's in the world of possibilities. Because the one conversation that Debro and I were having before the show was that his name needs to be in there with T. Higgins and Jameson Williams and Devonta Smith and all the twos on offenses where the volume is there. Clearly the option. Yeah, Jake. Jake Ferguson could bounce back, but he like, like it's not going to be the volume that George Pickens is going to see and just kind of similar to those names. And the biggest thing is that if he finishes 15, you know, D. Bro is going to look super smart. But the thing is, even if he finishes wide receiver 25, that's not going to be like, he was wrong. It's just, it might be a difference of one or two touchdowns. Because this tier is so enormous. I mean, we go from T. Higgins at what I have him as, like, wide receiver 13, 14. And you go down to where I have, like, Jalen Waddle. Jaylen Wall is another one that should be in this conversation. Jalen waddle into the mid-20s, and the difference between them are like one to two points per game, if even two is more like one, one and a half. So it's not a huge difference. So, yeah, it might sound crazy to be like, oh, my God, wide receiver 15. But he's just making a statement and that, like, he thinks that's the real upside for Pickens. I might not disagree. I mean, I agree, I disagree, but I still have Pickens in the high 20s, so it's like that. I'm not that far off.
- [46:59]
Derek Brown
Yep. That long tier, it comes down to volume and it comes down to touchdowns and stuff like that. And I just, I think when we look at the projection of Pickens, his volume, median and upside case with how much Dallas is going to throw the freaking ball. Like, we know where the ball is going. The running backs are not going to take a huge chunk of the passing game out of this. Even if Jaden Blue, like, breaks out in a full way, I don't think he's a guy that's getting 70, like 60, 70, 80 targets in that offense. So it's like, where does the volume go? If Dak Prescott is going to be top five to 10 in passing attempts, where does the volume go? We know CD Lamb, but, dude, he's. He's going to get his, like, 160, 180 targets or whatever. All right, so where's the rest of it go? Do you think Jake Ferguson's getting 150 targets? Well, that's not happening. So where's it going? It's going right to George Pickens.
- [47:51]
Ryan Warmley
If you go to player pages on Fantasy Pros and click on Rankings, you can see where each expert has a guy ranked. Ranked DBRO is the highest ranked expert.
- [48:01]
Jake Hofer
I thought you're gonna say if you just go to his player page. It's just a picture of Debro actually, instead of George Pickens.
- [48:06]
Derek Brown
Yeah, I'm just staring like a George Pickens. I'm just staring at the TV should look at the rankings.
- [48:11]
Ryan Warmley
D. Rose is the highest. He is 16 spots higher than ECR according to our, our page. There are some, you know, well known guys in the industry who agree with you though, like Jacob Gibbs is second highest. Matt Harmon is up there. He obviously knows receivers really well. Dalton Del Don is up there. So you are on an island in terms of being the highest, but you're not on an island in terms of anybody not being near.
- [48:31]
Derek Brown
You're gonna say it. Say it with your chest. Don't say it at all.
- [48:34]
Ryan Warmley
You can see where your favorite breakout candidates are coming off the board. And save yourself from getting sniped by using our draft simulator. The draft simulator allows you to practice quick and fun, realistic mock drafts based on your league settings in minutes. Use the pick predictor to see the percent odds that any player will be taken ahead of your next pick. Sync your league for free and try it today@fantasypros.com Mock or download the Fantasy Football Draft wizard app. It's funny, I was talking to my sister on the phone yesterday because she called me for my birthday, which is really nice. She has three kids under the age of six and she does play fantasy. And she was talking about how her husband, who's in our fantasy league, like our big family league, has done all these mock drafts already, but she hasn't had time. And I was like, what are you talking about? Use the mock draft simulator. And she was like, well, I don't have like an hour. I was like, like, are you kidding me? Your brother works for the site. You think it's going to take you an hour? These are so quick. And she literally said to me, you should say it on the show so people know it's really quick and easy. And I was like, this is all we talk about. What do you, what do you.
- [49:31]
Derek Brown
Anybody with kids knows that you have the few minutes of, of Solitude to yourself. When you go to the bathroom, if you're sitting on the freaking toilet, you run a mock real fast.
- [49:41]
Jake Hofer
It's.
- [49:41]
Derek Brown
It's not hard. It's really not.
- [49:42]
Jake Hofer
Can I say something real quick about that?
- [49:44]
Ryan Warmley
What?
- [49:44]
Jake Hofer
I forgot my phone downstairs and went to the toilet this morning. I didn't. I was so lost. I didn't know what I just staring at the wall like, what do I do?
- [49:55]
Derek Brown
It should be just a daily rule. When the coffee kicks in, it's time to mock. Okay.
- [49:59]
Ryan Warmley
Time to dive. To mock. Yes. I. Yeah, so I was. I won't throw her under the bus by naming her my name, but I will throw my sister under the bus by saying, mock drafts are quick and easy. Use the simulator. All right, we are one breakout candidate left from each of you guys. Jake, who is your number one?
- [50:18]
Jake Hofer
This feels like the most layup of mine. I'm going to go with Roma Dunes A. And I think that's obvious to a lot of people. But I will say there are a lot of people that I do an article every single year. It's last year's trash. It's the people that, like, really disappointed that nobody ever wants to go back to. This is. That's another mistake people make in drafts is writing people off like, oh, I'm never going to draft them again because blank happened to me or they didn't do this last year or whatever it might be. And I get it after the fourth year. Yeah, it might be hard to convince you to take Kyle Pitts one more time in the double digit rounds, but at least he's almost free this year. But Roma Dunes A, it was part being his own fault last year. Yes, Caleb Williams struggle. Yes, that offense was all over the map with the firing of Waldron. And then there was a little bit of a brief spell where we're like, okay, cool. Thomas Brown's fixed things. Caleb Williams is running a little bit more, making his first reads, and then it reverted back as Brown had to step up and things changed. But all that being said, Rome was part of the problem too. There was some consistency issues with him, some concentration drops, but we're still talking about some. If we go back to last year's draft and we brought up this question, Fitz did it a few weeks ago. It's like, hey, if Pacheco never got back on the field last year, wouldn't we be drafting him higher for the injury optimism? So I went through this and I said, let's say Roma Dunes a was like, J.J. mcCarthy got hurt and never played his rookie season, he'd be getting drafted higher because it'd be like, oh my God, we know who Roman Dunes is, the talent, and we never solve the disappointment. But if everything's going to be better for Caleb Williams with Ben Johnson, everything's going to be better for this offense. And we're excited about the third and fourth options, about Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, who still has to get past Cole commit. But my point being, if we're excited about all those, how are you not excited for the number two who by the way has a world where he might be the most valuable Bears wide receiver? Because the interesting thing so far is they're playing a hell of a lot of DJ Moore outside and I like all three wide receivers because I think all three can play the slot and outside to varying levels of success. But the one that's done the most Amon, Ron St, Brown Ness so far through the preseason and what we've seen from team reports has been A Dunes A. So I think there is a world where we get to the end of the season all of a sudden similar to the conversation that Devonte Adams could outscore Nakuo. I'm not going to bet that A Dunes A outscores DJ Moore, but I certainly think it's a possibility.
- [52:30]
Ryan Warmley
Yep, I have a rule, D Row where I'm like, if I really believe in the talent and the situation in the player in general, which I do with Roma Dunes A, I am always willing to look past year one. I am less willing to look past it if it's like another disappointment in year two. Like you know, fool me once, shame on you, that sort of thing. Like yeah, but year one, especially if I especially if it's so easy to explain. Right? Like there's a very logical Occam's Razor explanation of yeah, the situation was terrible and like you said Jake, it was. Some of that was on a Dunesday too, but really tough situation. I am willing to look past that in year one and basically draft him as if that didn't happen. Now I'm not going to draft him as if he had a breakout season already and you know, let's go be super aggressive and I love him or whatever, but I am willing to give a second chance on somebody like that. Somebody like Kyle Pitts or Trevor Lawrence. It's harder because it's been multiple times but Roma Dunes that that first year year, I'm always very willing to do that. So D row, are you also going back to the well on Roma Dunes.
- [53:27]
Derek Brown
This year Yeah, I mean, he's in that bucket of guys. Wide receiver 3, 4 range, where it's taking shots. You're splitting hairs on guys, you know, like, I mean, right now, in, in best balladp on fantasypros.com you have Ricky Piersoll and Roma Dunes. They are right back to back at wide receiver 33 and wide receiver 34. And it's a very similar conversation. It's guys that didn't fire last year and who were you in on and who were you out on? Like, like, I could sit here and we, you know, make the easy case. This, you know, we talked about this last year was like, okay, is Rome heading for a JSN type of rookie season? We can't all be surprised if that happens. Then it goes out and happens and it's like, okay, well are you out or are you back in? And I think there's gonna be a lot of differing opinions on Rome and where he's going in drafts I have no issue with right now.
- [54:12]
Jake Hofer
I love that because that was one of the things we said about Rome last year. I say we as in us, even on this show is that like, hey, he's being placed on a team third behind two talented wide receivers. And let's be patient. And we just saw it happen with jsn. And what did JSN do last year, by the way? Okay, like, let's realize, like, there's a world that Rome can do it even without a fall off from DJ Moore.
- [54:34]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. Going in the mid-30s is just. I think it's great because the, the downside is like, again, you don't have to draft him as if he already broke out. This is like a very reasonable.
- [54:43]
Jake Hofer
Caleb Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bears history to throw for 4,000 yards and 30 plus touchdowns. It's gotta go somewhere. D.J. moore's not gonna have 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns.
- [54:55]
Derek Brown
Yep. Rome's coming along for the ride if it happens. Agreed.
- [54:58]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. All right, D, bro, wrap us up with your number one, which will surprise nobody.
- [55:03]
Derek Brown
Yeah, it shouldn't surprise anybody, man. And again, I keep talking about low hanging fruit, but man, this is, this just feels like an easy call. And I know he's gotten a lot of steam because I think people have come around collectively like the whole fantasy industry. Like, this is a guy I've been talking about since preseason, but, but man, I want to stay aggressive. I want to stay above ECR and like, I've got him as a wide receiver too. He's still being drafted in so many different formats as a wide receiver. Three. And it's Tedro McMillan. I, I think, and I'm not projecting this, but I think we could be living in a world and worm, I brought this up and I got to give you your flowers. You said this, not stealing this from you. We easily could be living in a world at the end of this season where Tedro McMillan puts up Malik neighbors type of rookie season numbers. And I don't think that it's crazy. I know people are going to eye roll and I know they're going to say it's insane, but. But it's not, man. Like, if we just talked about earlier in this show about having faith and believing what Bryce Young did last year down the stretch is real. Canelis has come out and talked about it and every Dave Canales quote has come out and talked about we are going to push Ted Roman, we are going to feed him. We want to run this offense through this guy. And everybody's like, oh, well, what about.
- [56:12]
Jake Hofer
All the other people?
- [56:12]
Derek Brown
Really? You're worried about Adam Thielen at this point in his career versus a first round drafted wide receiver. And I know people shaded him throughout the entirety of the process. He doesn't watch film. He's not fast enough go top 10. Except he does. And now he's crushing in the preseason. Like people can go check the timeline. Like there's joint practices where it's not. He's dusting the CB5 on a freaking roster. He's getting open versus Derek freaking Stingley, one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. So it's coach speak. It's talent, it's draft capital. It's belief in Bryce Young having a better year this year. And quietly, the metrics all line up for Ted Aromi Millen. Like, this is a guy like I think when we talk about his game, it's the ability to step in and play the alpha X role from day one. And I think he can do that for a player that over the last two collegiate seasons he played had the third and the tenth most man coverage targets and he smashed versus man coverage. He was eighth and tenth in yards per route run. And you marry this with an offense that. And again, this has not been brought up enough throughout the off season. Carolina was quietly fourth in red zone passing rate last year. So not only does het have the the leeway or the pathway to get a ton of targets in this offense, if Bryce Young can be that guy this season, the touchdown upside with him is ginormous, man. Like he could spike 10 to 12 touchdowns this year. If Carolina is going to run it back in an improved offense with improved quarterback play and they're going to be top 5 to 10 red zone passing rate. Sign me up, man. It's one of the easiest clicks in all fantasy right now.
- [57:58]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I feel, I feel like people who have been listening to the show all summer are probably tired of hearing me make that Malik Neighbors comparison because I brought it up a couple of times. But for those who are just coming to us now, I'm like, Malik Neighbors I think is a better player than Teo McMillan. Yeah. But the situation, like both top 10 picks who are stepping into like they are clearly going to get as many targets as they can handle. The Panthers, like with what we saw at the back half of Bryce Young last year, have a better quarterback situation I think than you know, Malik Neighbors had his rookie season and, and what I keep saying is like Malik Navers, this is the cheapest in my opinion that Tedro McMillan will be in drafts for the next eight to 10 years of his career. He is going to be going higher than this, I think this time next year. So I want to get the guy while he is cheap. We know that first round receivers are a good investment in general. The fit is, it's a hand in glove fit in this offense. Both in terms of what Dave Canalis is looking for, both in terms of what Bryce Young needs, both in terms of what this receiving room needs. It just seems so perfect and I don't care frankly that he is now going inside the fifth round. I'm looking at the real time ADP right now. It's done up in the last week. It's about the 505 is where he's going. I don't care. I just think he's really good. It's a great fit and I think you're going to be really happy with that pick. Jake, what do you think about Tetaro McMillan?
- [59:16]
Jake Hofer
So I'm really glad that Derek brought up something that I kind of said because this is going to paint a picture of where it's weird for me is during the pre draft process I sat there and like this is the dumbest thing ever. We sat here all year long, all college football season long saying Tedro McMillan is the best wide receiver in this draft class. All year, all year, all year, all year. We get to a month before the draft and it's like, well, it might be somebody else. Well, it might like there's, you know, let's, let's kind of Pick them apart. And I brought it up and I said it's kind of like the Ohio State wide receivers every single year. Garrett Wilson fell into the Jackson Smith and Jigba felt this because we knew them. It's like people just want to find somebody else to talk about instead. And I was on that page. And then it's funny, it's like it's been so frustrating to watch him just buried in drafts, but now it's comes full circle and it's coming back around because a lot of people are waking up to what DBRO saying, what you've said, what I've said or whatever. But I feel like it's going to depend on your draft because I feel top 20 is a little aggressive for me. And I say this to say this is why. It's not that I don't like McMillan. It's not that I'm worried about Adam Thielen or Jatavian Sanders, a league or whatever it might be. It's just I have him for 135 targets that would rank 13th in the NFL last year. That's a lot of targets to have 130. You're going to rank inside the top 15 almost every single year. The question comes down to what, to those 135 turn into and where it could be. Brian Thomas, 80 some odd catches, 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns. My concern is it's more Jacoby Myers where it's 80 something, a thousand, four or five touchdowns. Now, if Debro is right and they continue to pass like they have, and I brought up Bryce Young as my first breakout pick and Bryce Young throws for 30 touchdowns, I'm going to be wrong because I have McMillan as my high 20s. Like he's not far out. He's still a wide receiver too for me, and I have him in front of Marvin Harrison. But I also think that Marvin Harrison's rookie season is the telltale concern that you can be one of the best talents. This situation might hurt you a little bit. Now, I do think that the Panthers aren't going to be stupid like the Cardinals are and be like, hey Marv, go throw. Run the four verts. You know what? You run four verts again. Run a go route. Run for like pick a dumb. Oh, I'm going to go off on Marvin Harrison like the usage of the Cardinals. Can you tell they're not wrong? The Cardinals are being stupid, The Panthers will not be. But I'm still concerned basically on the touchdown and yards equity because Bryce Young was down by the bottom end of the league in yards per completion, which I found a little bit more stickier than air yards per attempt just because it kind of tells you like what happens. Like you can attempt 40 yard passes all day long, but if you're not completing any of them, what does that really matter? So the fact that he's so low on that, I want to see it come up and I do believe it can. I just want him more around wide receiver 2022, which is still pretty aggressive. I'm just not going to get into the bucket of this again. Happens to say, like if we're all sitting here, say go get McMillan. He has Malik neighbors, Brian Thomas upside. I don't disagree with you, but don't make the mistake of drafting him in the third round of your draft and then now he has to do that for you to have any return on value.
- [62:25]
Ryan Warmley
I genuinely think he's going to be a top 15 receiver this year, but you don't have to draft in there, which is your point. Like, right. That's the nice part.
- [62:32]
Derek Brown
Take him in the fourth round. It's totally fine. And you're going to be ahead of most people.
- [62:36]
Ryan Warmley
If I had to pick one receiver who's not currently in the top 12 who will be consensus top 12 a year from now, he's my pick, like number one with a bullet and I just want to plant my flag at him. I want to be aggressive on him. I want to make sure that I have him on my rosters and that if I'm wrong, that's fine. Like people are wrong all the time. But like I just feel I have a lot of conviction in, in, in McMillan situation. I think, I mean the Panthers, we could talk about this for Bryce Young also the defense is going to be bad. Like they're going to throw a ton and if Bryce Young is good at all, if he is even, and we always say this, if he is just what he was in the second half of last year, not even taking a step forward, if he is just what he was in the second half, that is more than good enough to support a talent like Ted Roa.
- [63:16]
Derek Brown
McMILLAN to, to Jake's point, if we were to take Marvin Harrison Jr. And airdropped him into the Carolina Panthers offense and we didn't see the rookies here season and stuff like that. Where the hell will we be taking Marvin Harrison Jr. In this same situation? Yeah, you know, so I just think it's. It comes down to prospect fatigue like Jake talked about and it comes down to people, everybody like shaded this wide receiver class and they shaded Ted Roman Millen and they said all these different things and it's like, dude, like, you got to separate what's real. And from the BS noise to Jake's.
- [63:47]
Ryan Warmley
Point, I kind of want to do a dynasty league where we have our rookie draft just like the first week of January. I know you wouldn't know landing spots, but like, I don't want to get thrown off by all this other stuff. I just want to say, like, you know who was really good the last four months? I was watching college football Tet a row of McMillan. I know he wasn't as good as he was the year before, but like he was still like, I'm tired of overthinking it if I ever step out.
- [64:09]
Jake Hofer
Of this industry and I just want to burn my career to the ground. I've done some research on people's draft positions of players at the end of the college football season to win the actual draft happens when nothing is going on and the changes and how wrong some of our. I'm just saying I have, I have some receipts that I'm going to burn everything to the ground if evil Jake pops up after my career is done.
- [64:32]
Ryan Warmley
We'll wrap up on that threat from Jake.
- [64:35]
Jake Hofer
I'm coming for you all.
- [64:37]
Ryan Warmley
So those are our breakout candidates in the middle and late rounds. A lot of good names, a lot of agreement. Arguably too much agreement on this show. But, but I thought you guys made really great picks. So hard to hard to, you know, push back on any of them. So hopefully go get these guys. There's two draft weekends left. Go draft these players. Enjoy the next couple of weeks. Thanks everybody for tuning in for Jake and Dbro. I'm Ryan Wormley. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and Tik Tok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [65:41]
Jake Hofer
Tune in to all the Smoke podcast where Matt and Stack sit down with former first lady Michelle Obama. Folks find it hard to hate up close.
- [65:50]
Derek Brown
And when you get to know people.
- [65:52]
Jake Hofer
And you're sitting in their kitchen tables.
- [65:54]
Derek Brown
And they're talking like we're talking, you.
- [65:55]
Ryan Warmley
Know, you hear our story, how we.
- [65:57]
Derek Brown
Grew up, how Barack grew up, and.
- [65:59]
Jake Hofer
You get a chance for people to.
- [66:00]
Derek Brown
Unpack and get beyond race.
- [66:02]
Jake Hofer
All the smoke featuring Michelle Obama. To hear this podcast and more, open your free iHeartRadio app, search all the smoke and listen now.
- [66:10]
Derek Brown
I'm Jake Hofer and this is back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question.
- [66:22]
Ryan Warmley
About hunting and land management.
- [66:24]
Derek Brown
How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access? Should you?
- [66:29]
Jake Hofer
That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand.
- [66:34]
Derek Brown
Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
- [66:40]
Jake Hofer
I'm Dan. He's Ty.
- [66:42]
Derek Brown
Hello.
- [66:42]
Jake Hofer
And we're the Solid Verbal College Football Podcast.
- [66:46]
Derek Brown
Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else, and all the.
- [66:51]
Jake Hofer
Emotional support you need as a college football football fan. Join us all season long as we.
- [66:56]
Derek Brown
Ride the roller coaster of this ridiculous sport. Listen to the solid verbal college football podcasts on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [67:07]
Jake Hofer
We don't just love college football, Ty. We live it.
- [67:11]
Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast.