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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Top 10 Fantasy Football Predictions & Prop Bets for Week 14 (Ep. 1875)
00:50:27
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- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Want to know the secret to success around the holidays? Two words. Duracell batteries. Because giving someone a gift that needs batteries without giving them the batteries too, that's not a gift anymore. Plus, Duracell batteries are the only battery brand with power boost ingredients, which are a unique blend of nickel and lithium that can only be found in Duracell batteries. So make sure those gifts have the power they need on Christmas morning and stock up on the only battery brand with power boost ingredients. Choose Duracell. Hello, everybody. Welcome to Fantasy Pros. I'm Ryan, warmly joined by Andrew Erickson. Buddy, it's been a few weeks here. I had some technical difficulties, so Seth filled in one week. Then of course, we had Thanksgiving week where we kind of stepped away for a week to transition into the new iteration of the show for the rest of the season, which is going to be predictions based. We are, of course past the trade deadline in, you know, every league. Besides, you know, if you have like a dynasty league that has some weird trade rules, maybe that's a little bit different. But by and large, we're past trade deadlines in all of our leagues. So we are rather than talking trades Ericsson and buys and sells, we are talking predictions the rest of the way. How excited are you for the rest of the show?
- [01:11]
B
Super pumped to have you back on the show. Worm. The dynamic duo is back and honestly, I don't think you missed much because one of the last recommendations I gave on the trade show was to buy Lamar Jackson. So that has been an absolute disaster. However, Lamar, we're going to talk about him today, some of our predictions. Maybe he can turn it around. That is a tease for those at home and I'm excited to obviously break down the Ravens with you. What else are we going to do on the show?
- [01:37]
A
We were talking about this show and the way it's going to work, just so everybody knows, is we're going to go back and forth and we're going to give our predictions kind of going 5 to 1, roughly in that order. We might kind of flub with that a little to make it transition. Well, if we both are talking about the same team, we might move around the order a bit, but we're going to end with our favorite bets of the week. It's going to be be our hard rock best bets of the week. That'll be every episode. That will be the one that we are most wanting to kind of plant our flag on. And we haven't really decided what we're going to do as a competition, but we want to kind of go head to head and see who does better. Maybe we'll come up with some bet. We've got a team trip to New Orleans in January, which we're looking forward to as a company. Maybe on that trip we can find something to do for the fans that we can share with them and turn this into some kind of competition. And if you have any ideas, let us know in the comments for sure what you think we should be kind of putting on the table here. Erickson versus Myself throughout these predictions, you and I were talking before we started the actual recording the show. Ericsson Just kind of heading into week 14, one week left in the, you know, regular season in most fantasy leagues, kind of how we're sitting here. This is the first week where I have teams that are eliminated. It's funny, I think I'm in like 14 or 15 leagues this year and there's only one that I'm eliminated in and the one I'm eliminated in, I have the fourth most points in the league. It's just I've had terrible luck and will not be making the playoffs even though my team has been pretty good this year. You, it sounds like are still alive everywhere.
- [03:02]
B
Yeah, basically sitting on seven, six teams across the board. So just a little bit above average hanging on to that final playoff spot potentially. I got a few eight and five teams as well. But it looks like week 14, we are all systems go still to try to fight for that playoff berth. And look, everyone that's trying to fight for that last playoff spot, you just got to get to the dance because once you get there, anything can happen. It just takes one guy going off for a couple weeks. That can bring you a lot of success. And I think one of the big themes we're going to have with teams that win leagues this year and it's going to be for the second year in a row, Bucky Irving again, another tease for a player that we're going to talk about later in the show. But I think that with him coming back with fresh legs after so much time, missed the buck schedule rest of season. I think Bucky Irving is going to be a league winner two years in a row.
- [03:55]
A
By the way, these are going to be kind of fantasy driven predictions, but then we'll sort of include a prop with them that goes along. Like if we like a player, hey, he's going to finish, you know, as a top 12 player at his position this week. Here's a prop we like with him. That'll kind of be the format of the show. So there'll be a little bit of betting talk mixed in with, but it'll be still primarily, even though it's a prediction show, a fantasy driven show here. Quickly, Erickson, before we dive into our predictions, we usually like to start off the show recapping Monday Night Football doesn't feel like there's much here. The Patriots are the much better. I mean, it's a team that's now 11 and two going up against, you know, a team that's now two and 11. This is kind of the result you would have expected a blowout in favor of New England. Radre Stevenson did get one more carry than Trayvon Henderson. Henderson was, you know, is still much better, averaging almost twice as many yards per carry as Ramandre Drake. May continues to fall short of a 300 yard passing game, but still is very, very good. You know, Jackson Dart returns just 139 yards and a touchdown. I, I mean, I just don't feel like there's much to talk about here. Do you, do you have any points you want to hit on before we dive into the predictions?
- [04:57]
B
Well, Tyrone Tracy got injured, so that's something that's kind of noteworthy when it comes to, hey, if you need running back help, Devin Singletary looks like the next man up and they've trusted him with a pretty significant Snapchat. He actually looked pretty good against the Patriots defense last night. Patriots, especially against the run, hasn't been as good because they've been dealing with some injuries to their interior. Now both these teams are on buys.
- [05:16]
A
I was going to say, hard to look at that and go, oh, go pick them up. When last week of the regular season. So maybe if you're already like, you know, settled into your playoff spot or something. But yeah, go ahead.
- [05:25]
B
I will say that when I was writing my beyond the Waiver Wire article for week 14, one of the best schedules rest of season for a guy that's going to be on waivers after this week is the Patriots kicker. So he is someone that, hey, if you already have your playoffs all set up, ready to go, add him as a kicker because I think that he's got really good matchups. He's been really good the last couple weeks. I know I picked him up a couple weeks ago and I've been riding him as well. So I feel like that's a move that you can make if you're feeling really good about your playoff spot again. Nothing else is really super actionable. Yes, the Stevenson Usage is kind of annoying for Henderson, but you're not going to bench Henderson with all the great matchups he has after the bye week. So Stevenson may be just a guy that, hey, he has a lot of upside if something were to happen to Henderson and they get Stevenson back into that Bell Cow role. So you feel great about that. And then, yeah, on the Giant side, you're not really using Gen Wandale, Theo Johnson as a tight end Streamer and Jackson Dart. One thing to note, no design runs last night, so they did dial it back a little bit when it came to the rushing. Now he can still scramble at will, which is what he did. He was taken hit after hit. But I would say that even with the favorable schedule, that is something to note with Jackson Dart. Maybe we don't get as much rushing upside as we did during the when Brian Dabel was calling the plays.
- [06:40]
A
Erickson's out here breaking down rest of season kicker schedules for you. That's, that's the work he's putting into.
- [06:46]
B
The that's, that's, that's the people need at this point. Again, you can't make trades anymore, so you got to make movies elsewhere.
- [06:51]
A
I am a big fan and I would recommend this to everybody. Like if you I have a couple of leagues where I am like, like I've already clinched the buy or whatever in those leagues. I am picking up teams who have great defenses in the leagues that have defenses still, guys that have great matchups coming up in the next few weeks and dropping some of these bench guys that I just know I'm not going to be playing at this point in the season and I'm already in the playoffs. If I already have a buy, then the next two weeks are already covered. I am looking at week 16 and looking at week 17 already and picking up teams that are facing like the Titans or whoever the worst offenses are that you can find that have those defenses available. So I would recommend that to everybody as well. Let's dive into our actual predictions here, Erickson. We had, we hadn't talked for a couple of weeks so we had to start off with little Ravens talk here. You're going to go first, but I've also got a Ravens one here kind of back to back. What's your first prediction here? Ravens related for us Lamar Jackson finishes.
- [07:49]
B
As a fantasy quarterback one in week 14 against Pittsburgh Steelers. I could have gone more of a low bar, could have said, hey, Lamar, Jackson's going to score 10 fantasy points this week, which would have been his highest over his last Three games because as anyone knows, been following football. It's just been a disaster for Lamar Jackson in fantasy football. Now part of it has been he's not played well. Part of it has been he's coming off the injury. Part of it has been the Ravens offense hasn't looked as good, et cetera. There's a lot of reasons why I would say though, Lamar has also been running really cold when it comes to kind of like the variant side of things. Like this is like one percentile type of outcome for Lamar Jackson the last three weeks where he hasn't just been playing bad, it's been compounded with a lot of unluck situations where last week, right against the Bengals, Isaiah likely. Is he gonna score a touchdown? Nope, nope. Pump is the ball right at the one yard line. No touchdown from Lamar Jackson. Say Flowers catches like a 35 yard touchdown. Oh no. Coming back on a penalty. So. So like everything has just been working against Lamar Jacks in terms of hey, can this guy score fantasy points now he has been struggling. If you look at his expected fantasy points per game over the last three weeks, it's 15.6. That's obviously nowhere near what we're expecting from Lamar, but He's scoring negative 21 points under expectation. Like it has just been so, so bad that even Lamar just plays an average game against the Steelers. Like we're going to get him back up to at least 15 to 16 fantasy points where you're not pulling your hair out that, oh my God, I can't believe I started Lamar Jackson for the fourth consecutive week. I'm still going to continue to start Lamar Jackson. I think that with 10 days off, more extended rest, I think you can get a little bit healthier. I don't think that the rushing has been like totally obsolete. Now maybe you disagree with me, Warren, but I mean he's still been running six or seven carries per game the last couple weeks. So I don't think that's really gone away. We know we don't, we know that they don't love to use him near the goal line anyway. So again, the rushing touchdowns haven't really been there, but this dude was almost a lock every single week to throw for at least two passing touchdowns. He had one of the longest streaks I've seen and then the last couple weeks has been absolutely non existent. So I think he gets back on track here against the Pittsburgh Steelers, seventh best matchup for quarterbacks. They are 26 in passing touchdown rate allowed this season. So not only is he going to finish as a fantasy QB one he's also going to throw for over one and a half passing touchdowns. Worm, what say you when it comes to the Ravens and Steelers?
- [10:10]
A
I think you're wrong about this. Listen, I, I get that the Steelers have maybe been a favorable matchup for other quarterbacks. This is the one team that has all. Well, them and the Chiefs are the two teams that have always given Lamar Jackson fits. There has never been a time where he looks just like super comfortable against this defense. You could say that's just the AFC north of it all. Like, you know, it's a rivalry game. Raven Steelers is always close. You could say it's something that Mike Tomlin's doing. You know, you could say it's something in his own head. Whatever you want to say, like this is the one matchup. Like last year when the Ravens kind of finally overcame their Steelers demons. It was very much on the back of Derrick Henry in the running game. It was not on the back of Lamar Jackson throwing the ball. It's kind of funny. I saw a Ravens fan on Twitter that, who I follow say that Lamar had the Steelers game against the Bengals. Cause that's what usually happens is he looks like the better player, but he has so like all these stupid turnovers, fumbles, interceptions. Like the Ravens played the way against the Bengals last week, the way they usually play against the Steelers and lose a game they should have won. And I'm not convinced that this offense is capable of putting it all together right now. You, you talked about Lamar coming off the injury. He's not off it. He's clearly still injured. There is a degree of being hobbled in his game right now. I mean he has been on the, on the practice report for hamstring, knee, ankle and toe all in the last month. It's just like he clearly does not have the same level of elusiveness. I do think he is still pretty fast. It's the start stop the deceleration, the elusiveness in the pocket that is I think very obviously missing and it's just throwing off everything. Also, this offensive line is not good. 60% of the offensive line is having a terrible year and Lamar is not able to overcome it in the way he has been in the past. So I really worry about how he is going to finish in this game from a fantasy perspective. I don't see this as the, the turnaround spot for Lamar and this offense in general. Honestly, just the way they've look now. The Steelers defense is really truly quite bad. But so is the Bengals defense and that didn't matter last week because of just the way the Ravens offense has performed really all year long it feels like so so I am against this and to that point my prediction here is the Ravens are going to outgain the Steelers in yardage. They're going to look like the better team, but they're not going to get in the end zone. Whether it's because of turnovers when they get close or because they are settling for field goals. I think they are going to fail to score touchdowns despite outperforming the Steelers and they're going to trail most of the game. I do think the Ravens still end up winning, but I don't see this as a Ravens like kind of get right performance in the way the Steelers defense perhaps was for the Bills a week ago. I think this is a game where the Ravens still come even if they win and are in first place in the division. After this week, I think Ravens fans and Lamar Jackson fantasy managers are going to come away disappointed. If anybody is going to have a big game, I would lean Derek Henry more than Lamar. And because of all that what I just said, I'm taking The Ravens under 24 and a half on the team total.
- [13:09]
B
Yeah, somebody in this game, whether it's Steelers or Ravens, has to bounce back in some way, shape or form because both teams are coming off really bad losses just in general. I mean the Buffalo Bills could they just, they didn't do anything else except run the football. They were in the same play over and over and over again. TJ Watt was in shock that wow, they just kept running the exact same play at us and we couldn't stop it.
- [13:33]
A
And by the way, Derek Harmon is out again this upcoming week for the Ravens which really helps Derek Henry. So yeah, if the Ravens offense proves me wrong and I just think it'll be the run game, I don't think it'll be Lamar throwing multiple passing touchdowns. I we were talking a little bit. There's been some conversation about Lamar being really overrated. We don't have enough time to get into all the reasons why. I disagree with that. But I just want to say like him having a bad month when he's really injured and is having playing behind a terrible offensive line and just like has given us so much fantasy greatness the last six and a half years since becoming a starter, we're not going to give him the grace of a bad month. I think that's ridiculous. Like you want to set aside the playoffs conversation. Like I have my own thoughts about how overblown some of that narrative is, but that's its own separate conversation. Like he he has been so good for us for so long in the regular season that I like. And by us I mean fantasy managers that I don't think you can you can hold this month too too badly against him when it's clear he is not at full strength.
- [14:45]
B
Nobody wants to be patient Worm. Everyone just wants the results. Nobody cares the context of the certain matters I will say to add something to your point about the Ravens team total going under last 10 games between the Steelers and Ravens. How many of those games do you think have gone over the entire game total?
- [15:03]
A
Oh, I I would guess like one or two. Like I don't think it happens often.
- [15:10]
B
Yep, the last nine have gone under the total, so chances are at least one of these teams is going to fall short of their team total. You're picking the Ravens. I would probably opt for the Steelers because again fives aren't great around the Ravens. They might be worse for the Pittsburgh Casteras who are going on the road.
- [15:26]
A
I do. I do like the under. Like the overall under at 43 on Hard Rock Bet too. Like that would be my lean on this game is is the under because I think both offenses will certainly struggle. I don't think this deal I think it's been like over a month since the Steelers completed a pass greater than like 30 yards or so. I forget what the exact number is, but like they are they it's like a wild stat. We do have a special offer for everyone. Unlock a month of Betting Pros Premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today. Use promo code FP1MONTH. Get access to tools like the same game parlay tool, the Prop Bet Analyzer, and the Prize Picks Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. Don't miss out. Try it free for one month. Now available on iOS and Android. Again, that's FP, the number one month.
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Listen to Nocturnal Tales from the Shadows as part of my Cultura Podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your your podcast. All right, Erickson, let's get to our number four predictions here. Who what do you have for us?
- [18:46]
B
Ronda Gadsden's going to disappoint this week. Tough matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. Question marks around quarterback Justin Herbert. Still don't know if he's going to play. Recording this on Tuesday. We don't get a practice report on a Monday Night Football game till Thursday at the earliest. So we're all find out together what the status of Justin Herbert is. But even if Herbert is upright and playing, Gaston's been kind of disappearing over the last couple of weeks. So held to one cat for 27 yards in this past game. He did get tackled at the two yard line so there was a chance that he could have scored. But I think that's really the bet you're trying to make with Gadsden. Is that okay? Can he find the end zone? Because he's been under 42 yards in three straight games. No more than three receptions in any of those particular games. Now, game script has not been favorable for Gadsden because the Chargers were just playing in like blowouts. Whether they're blowing out the other team or they're getting blown out by another team. It's the Chargers in the basically the Chargers how they used to be before Harbaugh showed up where you had no idea what to expect from this team. And I look up the matchup against the Eagles Brutal one star matchup on the Fantasy Pros matchup tool the Eagles are allowing the second fewest yards to tight ends this season, 32.4 per game. Only two tight ends have gotten past 43 yards against them this season. Third fewest fantasy points allowed to tight ends. So I think it's going to be another tough sledding for Gadsden just after what's happened to Herbert, the matchup and the fact that he hasn't been nearly as involved as he was to start the year when he came out of the gates blazing hot. But then we saw okay, Johnson comes back, Kenan Allen, stone involved, lad McConkey, a lot of mouths to feed and and that's why I'm concerned about him. I don't know if he's just an outright bench because he still has a lot of upside like we've seen and that doesn't necessarily even again almost regardless of matchup. But when I just look at the peripherals of this particular spot for him, I think that he's probably going to finish under his receiving yards even if he ends up salvaging a day with a touchdown score. Like again he came very close last week so I'm going to take the under on his receiving yards prop. They're not, they're not dropped yet so I kind of looked at some of his older props. 47 and a half receiving yards. I would probably bet this down to 42 and a half receiving yards or something along those lines. So we'll all find out together what the final receiving yards line is. But it's going to be low and I think I still want to gravitate towards the under on it because it's just a bad spot.
- [21:07]
A
Yeah, I mean like you said, he came out so on fire when he first broke out that it's kind of hard to realize that like he hasn't scored double digit fantasy points since Week 8. He still ranked his tight end 8 in ECR. Some of the names around him like Kyle Pitts is one spot ahead of him. Mark Andrews is right behind him. Harold Fannin, Colson, Loveland, Juwan Johnson are all kind of in those next few behind Gadsden. It kind of speaks to the state of the position that he has been struggling as much as he is and is eighth. Also, he's. George Kittle would be ahead of him, but is on by this week. So that kind of knocks out somebody who, you know, kind of bumps everybody up a rung. But, yeah, I. I want to be avoiding him. It's. You mentioned the matchup already, but if you look like at the matchup rankings, in the expert consensus rankings, it's like all the names around him are two. Trey McBride has a two. Everybody else is like, three, four. Four. Three, four. Gatson's a one. Like, it's a really, really bad matchup. To your point, as bad as it gets. Yeah, I. I think this is. I think this is good. I. I don't disagree with this one at all. I think it's a good call. I. Do you. I. I think there's a better chance that he gets a. I think, to your point, I think there's a chance he gets a score, then he goes over his receiving yards. I. That. Yeah, I think that's my ultimate point.
- [22:31]
B
Yeah. And that's why it's hard for me to just say, okay, just bench him outright, because he has flashed a really high ceiling at times this year, and that still exists regardless of the matchup. I think if Herbert doesn't play, I think that becomes, okay, we can just bench Gadsden. Whereas a player that I'm looking at, someone that you might get off waivers this week, who has better chance of scoring this week, Gadsden or Darren Waller? Right. Like Darren Waller. We already saw him play the jets this year, and he scored twice like that. Defense is not good. So again, we'll see where Gadsden settles in with the ECR rankings. I don't think that he's going to move any higher than tight end eight, but if we continue to get positive steam on. Darren Waller again led the team in receiving yards last week. He's got a ton of touchdown equity. I mean, look, I get Waller. Waller is good when he's healthy, right? And right now, he's healthy again. I know he missed basically the most of the season, but that might be something that, if you're a Gadsden manager, you don't feel like dealing with the Herbert Trey Lance experiment, whatever ends up happening. Darren Waller might be a good pivot play there, because I think he also has a lot of upside, which is the game of the game when it comes to tight ends.
- [23:39]
A
My next prediction, Patrick Mahomes, sticking in the same division as Gadsden, will finish with his worst game of the season. He will be outside the top 20 quarterbacks in fantasy is my prediction here. He. It's obviously been up and down as an offense for the Chiefs this year. You know, largely, you know, from Homes especially better of a fantasy performance than it was the last couple of years. But it's still been kind of inconsistent. And now they get the Texans and the Texans defense has been unbelievable. They completely shut down Josh Allen a couple weeks ago. They held the Colts to 16 points. And the Colts have obviously been really good at times. I'm sorry. Yeah, the Colts was in the last game, 20 to 16. In fact, if you go back, setting aside that Jags game, which was kind of a weird, you know, fluky performance there in week 10, since week 7, they have not allowed 20 points in a game. That Jags is the only exception to that. It's been. They held the Niners to 15, the Broncos to 18, the Titans to 13, the Bills to 19, the Colts to 16. This is a really, really good defense, arguably the best defense. I think. I think it is the best defense in the NFL. It's like them or the Seahawks maybe, or the Broncos. There are a few good defenses. I think this is the best. And they have been absolute hell on earth for opposing offenses in general, but especially opposing quarterbacks. So I think Mahomes is a terrible day. Even with four teams on by this week, I think Mahomes still does not get inside the top 20. I was going to say he's going to finish outside the top 24, but with so many teams on by, I was like, I can't go that, that far. But I'm trying to be bold here with these. They're not bold predictions. They are just predictions. But I'm trying to not just take the easy way out with some of these. So I'm going to say outside the top 20 for Mahomes.
- [25:25]
B
Has he. I'm not. Sorry if you, if you said this. Has he finished outside of the top 20? No. Right. He's finished top 20 every single week because this would be his worst game. Like you said.
- [25:33]
A
I think he has. Let me double check. Yes, he. So he was QB20 in week three and he was QB22 in the Buffalo game in week nine.
- [25:44]
B
Okay.
- [25:44]
A
And those are the two times that he is not at every other game he's been QB14 or higher. So those were the two bad ones. So I think he might finish higher than QB22 just because there's four teams on by, but I think it'll be his lowest like points total output as.
- [25:59]
B
A fantasy Quarterback look, we saw the Texans make Josh Allen look like a guy had no idea what he was doing right at quarterback because of how good they are defensively. And you look at the other side of the ball, Chiefs have a good defense right. This game when, when the Texans take the field, you're not getting points. Like it's not what happens in these types of games. They're the number one teams in terms of playing towards the under this season in terms of total points. Now a lot of that's because they're playing AFC south teams. But in the overall, Texans games do not become shootouts. Chiefs games. This game is at home, correct? The Chiefs are playing at Arrowhead.
- [26:41]
A
I believe that's correct. Let me double check just to make sure I'm not. I think you're right. Yes, it is at Arrowhead. Yeah, it's Sunday night Football.
- [26:48]
B
Yeah. The Chiefs, when they play at home, these games tend to be lower scoring as well. And I think that another trend that I thought was really interesting this year that I kind of latched onto, I coined it the, the lasso lag, which was essentially after offenses faced the Dallas Cowboys, they were almost always worse the following week. And those numbers were always bloated because oh man, this team just like totally lit up the Dallas Cowboys and then they play somebody else and they don't look nearly as good. I think you see that compounded here with Patrick Mahomes coming off a monster game, one of his best of the season against the Dallas Cowboys, which was one of the few games this year that the Chiefs have actually played indoors. So it was kind of the perfect run out from a homes on Thanksgiving where fast game script, dome conditions, air in the ball out, everybody's cooking. And now you're getting the total other end of the spectrum where or are you facing this elite Houston Texans defense. So I, I agree with you and I know in one of my leagues super flex, I have Drake, may I have Jackson dart and I have Patrick Mahomes as my three quarterbacks. Two of them are on bye weeks and one of them has the worst matchup you could draw. So not looking forward to that particular spot. But yeah, especially with four teams on by Mahomes, many tough to guy to bench, but somebody that you're going to have to adjust your expectations on.
- [28:11]
A
Erickson, do you know what his passing yard line is on Hard Rock Bet. I can't believe this.
- [28:16]
B
It's probably too high.
- [28:17]
A
It's 245 and a half. There's no chance, I mean there's A chance he's Patrick Mahomes.
- [28:24]
B
Yeah, that's true. Never want to do that. There's. Whenever you drop them. There's no way.
- [28:29]
A
I know I shouldn't have said that. But. But I love the under. Like, I don't know if he even gets 200 in this game. Like, I genuinely think the Texans defense is that good. 2:45 and a half. I like that is my prop is under that. I would also go under one and a half touchdowns. I mean, I would go under as a prop. His passing attempts are 34 and a half. I think he goes under that. Like, I. I just don't see this game playing out where he's throwing a ton and completing a ton of passes. And like any of that, I'm. I just think it'll be a very, very poor game for him.
- [28:56]
B
And you didn't mention this either, but they have multiple offensive line injuries.
- [29:01]
A
Yep.
- [29:01]
B
Across.
- [29:02]
A
And this is not a pass rush you want to have offensive line problems against.
- [29:06]
B
Trey Smith is banged up, Simmons is banged up, Taylor's banged up. Like, yeah. So that. That is a tough draw for Mahomes. You're hoping that he just uses his legs what they. Which is what he tends to do in like the playoffs. And that's how he kind of gets his points. Because we know the Chiefs, when push comes to shove, they're going to drop back to throw 40 times, like, no matter what it takes. Because they will abandon the run quicker than any other team when it's Kareem Hunt, Isaiah Pacheco. So that is the one thing I think that maybe you get as a Mahomes fantasy managers, hey, we can get some just sheer volume out of it to kind of grid our way to maybe 15, 16, 17 fantasy points.
- [29:40]
A
If there's one bet on the over I like on my homes this week, it's rushing yards at 21 and a half. That would be the one if I had to take one. It's not. I don't love it. It's not like, oh, let me sprint and go like, bet the mortgage on it. But if I had to pick one, that's the one I like. All right, let's go to your number three prediction here.
- [29:59]
B
Justin Jefferson finishes inside the top 20 wide receivers against the Washington Commanders. Man, I can't believe we reached a point where it's kind of like a prediction to make Jefferson a wide receiver too.
- [30:12]
A
But I was gonna give you a hard time about it. Like, I don't think you're wrong that it is actually kind of A prediction like, like I'm not saying this is an invalid one, but like Justin Jefferson top 20. Like yeah, we, we can do a little better than that, don't you think?
- [30:27]
B
I mean I did my weekly rankings and I'm pretty sure I have him either wide receiver one territory. So he's in there.
- [30:35]
A
So I mean I wanted you to get to like top 15, top 12, something like that. Like 20.
- [30:41]
B
My favorite thing about this show is it's not bold predictions. But if you don't come on with the bold prediction then you get ridiculed by the other analyst and host basically.
- [30:49]
A
Well, it's funny, like I'll let you finish before I get into mine but my prediction, because it's the same game is Chris Rodriguez is a top 20 running back and it's just funny to look at those two names next to each other. Like these are equivalent predictions. Is Chris Rodriguez Top 20 at his position? Justin Jefferson Top 20 his position? It just sounds ridiculous. But you're right, it's not. It's not a bold predictions show.
- [31:10]
B
Maybe we could make this one a head to head where we just do straight up half PPR points. Who outscores who scores more points, Jefferson or Rodriguez? So maybe that's a fun way we can do a twist on this one. But last week Jefferson hit rock bottom with Brosmer, or as I like to call him, Bruh Brosmer. Just, just absolutely terrible game from the former undrafted rookie quarterback from Minnesota. Jefferson had two catches for 4 yards. He actually had a really bad target share as well. It was significantly worse than it was with JJ McCarthy. At least with McCarthy we were seeing all the air yards high end target share over 30, just 20 in this game. TJ Hawkinson was the one guy that actually saw the boost with Brosmer under center six for 6:59 yards. Addison was the target leader with 10 targets. That being said, McCarthy has now accelerated through the concussion protocol. Just like that. It's like nope, nope, he is coming back because Brosmer was not the guy and I would expect that. Now Jefferson in a really strong matchup at home against the Commanders. I think that he's going to bounce back here. We know that the volume and the area, it's the high value opportunities are going to be there for Jefferson. It's just a matter of hey, can JJ McCarthy be any sense of efficient now? It's not really about him taking this massive leap, but it's the fact that well they're playing the Washington Commanders defense and this is a defense that has faced bad quarterbacks before and those quarterbacks are able to rise above it and be more efficient. It's not playing at Lambeau against the Green Bay packers. It's not playing at Seattle. So I like this matchup for Jefferson to kind of get back into that wide receiver two range. Like I talked about. Where is the actual upside with him? I talked about this on the Rank show last week where Jefferson has zero top eight finishes this season, zero 20 point games. I don't know if he really has a really, really high ceiling just within the confines of what it's like to be attached to J.J. mcCarthy, but if he's ever going to bounce back, especially after hitting rock bottom last week, it has to be this week against the Washington Commanders. And I would say too, the prop that I'm kind of throwing in here is Jefferson going over 60 and a half receiving yards. This has to be one of the lowest receiving arc props he's had since he entered the NFL. I would be very interested to see like what it was when he was like a rookie essentially because I feel like that's the number that we're working with here. I was actually trying to guess what it would be before the lines actually got posted this morning. I thought it was going to be around like 57 and a half, 58 and a half. Up to 16 and a half receiving yards officially on Hard Rock Bet. But if you look at what Jefferson has done at home this year in four of his five home games, he's actually gone over this number, two of which were with actually with J.J. mcCarthy as the quarterback. So no, it's been bad. I know it's been rough, but matchup's too good spots, too good to improve for McCarthy coming back as the quarterback. So you gotta start Jefferson and I think that you're going to get a, a strong game from him.
- [33:54]
A
I like the +900 first touchdown score for Jefferson on Hard Rock Bet actually quite a bit. I think if the Vikings get down close, I think they kind of want to see Jefferson like get going and have a blow up game if it's possible. Like, like I, I think that, that I think they will be motivated to try and get him a score early in this game against a bad defense like, like everything you said. So plus 900, like that's pretty darn good odds for somebody of Justin Jefferson's skill set and talent. So I actually kind of like that quite a bit. It is hard for me. Like where are you actually ranking him, did you say? You said it's like close to to wide receiver one range.
- [34:36]
B
I think he's right at 13 for me, he's on the cusp of that.
- [34:40]
A
Wide receiver1 range in in ECR but like right behind him, Zay Flowers. Like I definitely like Justin Jefferson better than Z Flowers.
- [34:49]
B
Oh, we know you like anybody better than Zay Flowers.
- [34:53]
A
Let me ask you this. Justin Jefferson or Mecca Buka who has been really bad lately?
- [34:57]
B
Yeah, I think that I did put Jefferson above Ebuka. I think that's probably where I'm a little bit different than ECR is. I could see the both arguments, but both guys have been inefficient essentially on pretty good target volume, air yards like I said before usage essentially. But Jefferson, to your point, I think that you do get a little bit of a narrative here with him where no, we're going to jam targets to Jefferson. We're going to get him going, get the home crowd going, Jefferson's back, Jetta's, all the good vibes, especially when it's against the commanders. It's a matchup that they know that even a quarterback like McCarthy. No, you like you can take advantage of this really bad defense, especially in their secondary. So we know the Viking season is kind of lost at this point. The only thing that they need to do is just, hey, can McCarthy be the guy? Like just evaluate him, give him opportunities and. And maybe a week off helped him. Right. You know, we saw this with Bryce Young after he got benched after playing just so bad. Now it's a little bit different because he missed a game because of an injury. But who knows, maybe he can come back a little bit less pressure on him and it is the commanders.
- [35:55]
A
It's kind of funny. So my predictions on Chris Rodriguez in this game, his first touchdown score on Hard rock bed is plus 575. His odds are significantly shorter than Justin Jefferson, which is hilarious. I like Chris Rodriguez to finish as a top 20 running back in fantasy this week. This is actually, you know, something of a prediction because he is not ranked inside the top 20 on ECR. Unlike Justin Jefferson, he's RB28 8 this week and he's somebody that like has kind of taken over this backfield. Of course he has been finding the end zone like he did in his last game. He has a touchdown in four of his last six games. So this has been kind of a thing. The Vikings run defense has not been that good. I'm not saying that Rodriguez is going to come in here and have a top five week and you know, finish with over a hundred yards for the first time this season or anything like that. But I do think he gets in the end zone and I do think with four teams on by, he finishes in inside the top 20 at the position which he has only done once this season. It was against Seattle. Very good defense. Back in week nine he already had 60 yards and a touchdown. I think we get something similar. I think we get like 60 yards in a touchdown from Rodriguez in this game.
- [37:01]
B
Erickson, I think this is a good one. He has been carving out that lead role in the commander's backfield. It does get a little bit scary because they still like to use multiple guys. So even though Jecory Krasky Merritt has kind of taken the backstage seat, he still gets a handful of touches here and there. We know that they like to use Jerry McNichols a little bit as well, especially in past catching situations. But I think for the most part when it comes to if Rodriguez gets there, he's going to score a touchdown and that's definitely the guy that they're leaning on towards when they get into the red zone. So I think again, if he finds pay dirt twice, you're cashing this one.
- [37:38]
A
Let's go to our number two predictions each. What do you have going to go with?
- [37:43]
B
Chase Brown goes over 100 yard from scrimmage for the seventh straight game. He's on a six straight game heater with 100 yards from scrimmage. And he was good again on Thanksgiving. Fifteen carries for 78 yards, seven catches for 35 yards. And I know that I don't just speak for myself. Watching that game with everybody watching in prime time. Samajpuran, dude, like this guy was on the field so much in that game, I couldn't believe it. I was thinking, is Chase Brown injured? Like, what is going on here? Did he piss off Zach Taylor in some way at the Thanksgiving? Different table, like what is the deal here? But the snaps ended up actually being 60, Chase Brown 40, Samajp Ryan and this was always kind of in the range of outcomes with P. Ryan coming back. Now, anytime a guy comes back from an injury, sometimes you don't get them back into their full rolls and in this case we did. Before P. Ryan's injury, this backfield was more of a 60, 40 split, especially when it came to the snaps. However, Chase Brown had been heating up anyway. He's still been really efficient and I think that although P. Ryan is going to stay involved, especially on third downs, which we just don't see Chase Brown play a lot of Chase Brown has just been so efficient. Like he's look super explosive as both a rusher and receiver. And again, it hasn't only been P. Ryan not being there, that has been the reason why Chase Brown has been so effective. Like he's just playing significantly better. You have Joe Burrow back, which is obviously giving a massive boost to the entire offense. And I think the thing that's really the most important selling point is they're playing the Buffalo Bills, right? This team gave up, I think an RB1 performance to Sean Tucker. They gave up over 200 yards from scrimmage to Devon Achan a couple weeks ago as well. So although the Bills defense did play a little bit better against the Pittsburgh Steelers offense, that's the Pittsburgh Steelers offense again. So I think Chase Brown can continue to stay on a hot run even if he is still kind of seeding some touches to Samaj AP Ryan. I don't think it's going to be quite enough to get me off of him against the Buffalo Bills. And when you look at his prop, it's actually 76.5 rushing and receiving yards. So it's significantly lower than what he's been hitting at a really high rate at 100 yards from scrimmage. So we don't even need to get to the century mark for Chase Brown to go over his prop, which is 76 and a half rushing and receiving yards, which I really, really love against the Buffalo Bills.
- [40:01]
A
I love it too. I think this is a great call. I also like his rushing yardage total is 51 and a half. I like him to go over that like against the Bills, like run defense of all teams. I totally am with you on this. I like the combined over 76 and a half. I like the over on 51 and a half rushing as well. So I'm like super on board here and to that point I'll loop into my prediction which is also about this game. I think Josh Allen and Joe Burrow give us the shootout we've been waiting for. I think the Bills and Bengals combined for over 70 points in this game. So obviously I like the over on 51 and a half on Hard Rock bet. I think they combined for over 70 points. I think this game challenges to be the highest scoring game of the NFL season so far. I think I meant to look this up. I think it's the 40 to 37 Cowboys Giants game is the highest scoring game so far. I could be miss. I could be forgetting another one. We can look that up later. So that's. That's why I didn't say like this will definitely go be the highest scoring but I think it challenges for that. I think it gets close. Like I said, I think the combined for over 70 points and I think Allen and Burrow throw a lot of touchdowns. I like Chase Brown to get a lot of yardage, which is why I agree with yours. But I think when the when it comes to the scoring, it's going to be a lot of passing touchdowns and I think Allen and Burrow are going to combine for at least six touchdowns. So the, so the prop here is really just the overaround the game over 51 and a half and that it's going to be a big shootout. But I think Chase Brown plays into that right. Like I think. I think he's going to have a big game. I think everybody in this game is going to have a big game. I think this is the one we've been waiting for. Again like, like it's two defenses that are not good partially due to injury, partially due to the Bengals being the Bengals. It's two quarterbacks that I feel like are kind of do like Allen had that game against the Bucks a few weeks ago. Burrow of course, kind of shaking off the rust a bit against the not that he was terrible against the Ravens, but like obviously the Ravens kind of handed that game to them. I think this is like both of them kind of like at full strength, just a huge, huge shootout potential. I think everybody in this game blows up. Honestly.
- [42:03]
B
I you're going to get no pushback for me. The only thing that I will add is I need to take the L on Joe Burrow. Last week I was much lower on consensus than Joe Burrow and he finished exactly where ECR had him pegged, right around that QB10, QB9 range. And I just, I was so impressed by what I saw from him with so much time off and I'm honestly lucky that he didn't score more fantasy points, to be totally honest. Like he left some production on the table. I think that when I looked at his expected fantasy points in the game against the Ravens, he was closer to like 30. So I was lucky that he still finished 18 to 19 points and didn't totally bury me in the advice I gave last week. But if you have Burrow, you stashed him, you added him off waivers, locked and loaded like rest of the way with a fantasy QB one. So you're feeling great about that and you should have no hesitation starting him this week and rest of the season, especially if they get T. Higgins back. Higgins was still in concussion protocol on December 1st on Monday. So that's a little concerning just given that they played on Thursday. Usually you see these guys get out of the protocol a little bit sooner with extra time, but if he gets him back, yeah, we're gonna see a scoring bonanza here between two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I think that's something that's really interesting too, when you look at it from a betting perspective. Each of the last five games between the Bills and Bengals has actually gone under the total. And that to me isn't, oh no, like, this is going to be the sixth game in a row. This is, oh no, they're due for a monster, monster game. Like, that's the way that I'm reading this particular trend. So I agree with you and I think that when we look back on this prediction more, we're going to be like, all right, where I'm like, totally nailed it. 70 points. Hit the over easily. But Allen had two rushing touchdowns. So you were spiritually correct, as we like to always talk about on this prediction show is like, you weren't technically correct but like spiritually when Josh Allen rushed for three touchdowns because nobody on the Bills actually gets passing touchdowns thrown to them because they just used 12, 000 different receivers. I will still give you credit.
- [43:59]
A
I, I want to be clear that as the host of this show and who ultimately is the one keeping score of this, I will be counting spiritually correct. I, yeah, it just, I, I, you're right, feels do like, it feels like we are past due for like two of these Mount Rushmore like current quarterbacks to like really just go off against each other and I think it happens here. So I, I'm glad to hear that you are in agreement.
- [44:25]
B
As long as we get the, the weather. Just need the weather to hold up because I know that we've seen snow and wind and it's in Buffalo. So like that's always, that's a concern. But as long as we get like, not just totally crappy weather, then yeah, we should, we should see points here.
- [44:38]
A
The total has gone up. It's now 52 as our rock bet. By the way, not the highest of the week though. Dallas Detroit is 54 and a half, which is.
- [44:45]
B
Well, that one's a coarse field, baby.
- [44:47]
A
I think that's the highest I've seen as a total this year. Fair. Fair on that one. Now it's time for our Hard Rock best bets of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet Erickson. What Is your Hard Rock best bet.
- [45:00]
B
Of the week Teased it earlier in the show that Bucky Irving is going to be a league winner for the second year in a row and that's starts and continues against the New Orleans Saints this week. So my Hard Rock best bet is Bucky Irving going to finish as a RB1 this week in week 14 because he's going to rush for over 69 and a half rushing yards against the Saints. Over 70 rushing yards. However you want to shake it with Bucky Irving. It was his first game back after a long absence. He played 54% of snaps but he went back to kind of Bucky Irving bell cow status. 17 carries for 61 yards. He had a long of 13. 2 caps for 20 yards. He had a long of 20. So he's ripping off some explosive plays. He actually also scored from inside the goal line at the one yard line but came back on a holding penalty. So I still think that Bucky Irving is he slated for a strong run here. He has fresh legs because of all the time missed. We're not really seeing him lose out on work to Rashad White or Sean Tucker. Rashad White still kind of dabbling on passing downs, but besides that it really is Bucky Irving as the main guy. And they're facing the New Orleans Saints 4th Most rushing yards allowed to running backs this season. Over 110 rushing yards per game. Nothing but smooth sailing for Bucky rest of season. So I think he starts to go on RB1 tear here. And despite the fact he's not scored a lot of touchdowns, I think they said in the broadcast last week was the first game he has scored all season. I, I want you to just double check me on that worm. But I think that that streak's going to continue here. So he's going to keep scoring touchdowns. He's gonna be an RB1. He's going to rush for at least 70 yards against the Saints.
- [46:31]
A
He caught touchdown in week one and in week four this was his first rushing touchdown.
- [46:37]
B
Nuts. Who just said that week 13 is gonna be Bucky Irving's first rushing touchdown.
- [46:41]
A
I mean he didn't miss like eight games so. Or seven games. I think. Yeah, yeah. My, my Hard Rock best bet of the week is that the Eagles absolutely smash the Chargers on Monday night. I think they easily cover -3 in Los Angeles. That's what it was. I haven't checked to see if that line moved at all. That was the initial line that I saw was minus three. Let's just double check quickly here since this is my best bet of the week. I want to make sure it is accurate and oh it's actually gone down. It's now minus two and a half on hard right.
- [47:14]
B
You don't even need to give the hook anymore. Let's go.
- [47:16]
A
Even better. I love it. I think the Eagles are going to like just destroy the Chargers in this game. Obviously we've talked a lot about LA's offensive line, injuries and issues like the Eagles have a great defensive line. A.J. brown coming off a huge game. I know it was in a loss to the Bears, but A.J. brown coming off a big game. We don't know what's going on with Herbert and his health. Again it is we're taping this Tuesday morning so there's time for this to change. Maybe it'll be more obvious later in the week. It doesn't matter to me if he plays or not. I'm going to like the Eagles minus two and a half regardless on the road. But obviously if Trey Lance plays this looks even better. And a prop I'll give you is Devonta Smith and A.J. brown are going to both score a touchdown. They'll you can bet both their anytime touchdowns and I think they will both hit. But yeah the the prediction here the Hard Rock Best bet of the week for me is that the Eagles win and like cover by a wide margin minus two and a half against the Chargers. Those were our Hard Rock best bets of the week. And while we're talking about Hard Rock Bet, they've got some big news. Hard Rock Bet is now live in Michigan. Sign up today and place your first $5 sports bet. If it wins, you get $150 in bonus bets on top of your winnings. And if you're more into casino games, new customers can get up to $1,000 back in casino bonus if you're not up money after your first 24 hours playing slots, win money or get a casino bonus back. Plus you get 200 bonus spins winnings paid in cash. Not sure what to place your first bet on? Head over to the Hard Rock Bet Stats hub and it'll help you out. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie and neither does the data in there. Hard Rock Bet offers new promos daily plus big legendary reward drops every Thursday like gifts under the tre. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got waiting for you. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit.
- [48:59]
B
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- [49:29]
A
Call 1-800-Gambler-Erickson what do you think about that Eagles call?
- [49:33]
B
I like it. Eagles against the spread and I think that you're in a situation where you want to get on this early. Right. Because the line can only move in your favor at this point. Right. So even if Justin Herbert oh he's going to play is that going to make me want oh yeah. Got to take the Chargers with that home field advantage. Yeah. Okay. Which they do not have. Look man I, I, I feel so bad for her. Dude is such a warrior but behind this offensive line playing with a broken hand even though it's on his non throwing hand like this is still something that he has to play with and adjust and be and thinking about when the pass rush is is coming down because his offensive lines not gave him much time to block. So I think that this is a great bet to make and once we get Trey Lance we're going to see this line move to Eagles favored by a touchdown if that's the case here. So I think that you're playing with this is the value proposition right here.
- [50:26]
A
What did you say your prop was for Bucky? I know you said over 69 and.
- [50:30]
B
A half rushing yards. I don't have it. They haven't listed it yet but I would assume that's going to be probably somewhere in that vicinity just based on what his rushing props have been. I think that he was around this last week as well but against Saints I just think he's gonna start continue to cook.
- [50:44]
A
Yeah. Your official best bet is the over on whatever that line is he said. So he's RB8 in ECR. Is that. Yeah, that's roughly where you have him.
- [50:55]
B
Perfect.
- [50:55]
A
Perfect. Bucky Irving or Chase Brown this week?
- [50:59]
B
I think I'm probably have to move Chase Brown down just a tad bit. I, I just think it's so annoying with the P. Ryan stuff.
- [51:05]
A
It's just yeah.
- [51:06]
B
So tilting that he came back and just took so many of the carries so I think that I might have to move towards Bucky. But Chase Brown will still be well within the top 10 running backs just have to acknowledge that he's not going to see 90% of the snaps, which is going to limit him a little bit, even though it is still the Buffalo Bills defense.
- [51:24]
A
All right, those were our Hard Rock best bets of the week and also all of our predictions that you heard throughout the show. Like I said, we'll, we'll come up with some sort of competition bet or something here.
- [51:34]
B
Give us some ideas in the comments.
- [51:35]
A
Yeah, definitely.
- [51:36]
B
Let us know.
- [51:36]
A
What do you want to do? It can be something that we can do virtually together. Could be something that we can do when we're on our team trip in New Orleans together next month. Whatever you come up with, we'll, we'll consider some options here, come up with something. But whatever we do, we will be competing to see who gets who does better on these predictions.
- [51:50]
B
Maybe, maybe what we do is loser has to sing the winner song at karaoke live in New Orleans and the winner gets to pick whatever song they want.
- [52:03]
A
There's, there's no guarantee we make it to another karaoke bar like we did a couple of team trips ago. Also, I think it would ruin the evening for everybody if I sang. It is I have a lot of skills. Singing is not one.
- [52:15]
B
Don't lose.
- [52:17]
A
I will make sure that I spiritually win and count all those victories for sure. If that ends up being the bet. Not a bad idea. We'll consider it and consider anything else everybody says in the comments. By the way, each week we do a quick fantasy football live stream ahead of Thursday Night Football on The Fantasy Pros YouTube channel and a short betting live stream ahead of Monday Night Football on The Betting Pros YouTube channel. Both of them go from 8pm Eastern until kickoff. Will be. Please check them out. Subscribe to our YouTube channels and click the bell to be notified of all of our weekly live streams. For Ericsson, I'm Ryan Warmley. Thank you everybody for tuning in. Best of luck here in week 14 and clinching up those playoff spots. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
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B
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A
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B
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A
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B
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- [55:05]
A
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