FantasyPros – Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Top 10 Fantasy Football Predictions & Prop Bets for Week 14 (Ep. 1875)

Release Date: December 3, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Warmly (A) & Andrew Erickson (B)

Episode Overview

This episode marks a shift into PROP BETS and PREDICTION SEASON on FantasyPros! With NFL fantasy trade deadlines passed, Ryan and Andrew pivot the show towards bold, actionable week-by-week predictions and prop bets to help listeners clinch playoff spots or cement dominance. From fantasy breakouts and busts to their “Hard Rock Best Bets,” the crew combines sharp analysis with their trademark banter while diving deep into Week 14’s juiciest NFL storylines and matchups.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Format Update & Fantasy Playoff Strategy

• Transition to Predictions: Now past most league trade deadlines, the show focuses on weekly predictions and companion prop bets, ending each episode with the hosts’ favorite “Hard Rock Best Bets” and launching a friendly competition between Ryan and Andrew.
• Playoff Management Advice: With playoffs at hand, optimize benches for RB/DEF/kicker upside rather than marginal bench players; stash defenses or kickers with favorable upcoming matchups (06:45).

"You just got to get to the dance because once you get there, anything can happen... It just takes one guy going off a couple weeks that can bring you a lot of success."
— Andrew Erickson (03:12)

2. MNF Recap & Waiver Thoughts (04:56)

• Patriots vs. Giants: Minimal actionable takeaways with both teams on bye soon.
  • Tyrone Tracy injury: Devin Singletary may see more work.
  • Patriots kicker: Great rest-of-season schedule; stash now if you’ve clinched playoffs.
  • Remains bullish on Trayvon Henderson post-bye despite touch split.
• Streaming Recommendations: Target playoff-friendly defenses and kickers now if you’ve locked a bye (06:50).

3. Ravens vs. Steelers: Lamar Jackson Debate (07:49 – 15:26)

Prediction 1 (Erickson): Lamar Jackson Bounces Back as a Fantasy QB1

• Predicts Lamar Jackson will finish as a QB1 and throw over 1.5 passing TDs vs. PIT.
  • Recent cold spell “one percentile outcome,” expects regression to the mean.
  • Steelers: 7th-best QB matchup; 26th in TD rate allowed.

"This dude was almost a lock every single week to throw for at least two passing touchdowns... Everything has just been working against Lamar..."
— Andrew Erickson (09:10)

Counter Prediction (Ryan): Offensive Struggles Continue

• Challenge: Ravens will outgain the Steelers but fail to capitalize (take under 24.5 team total); expects field goals/turnovers instead of TDs.
• Maintains Lamar’s injuries, OL weakness, and Steelers history spell more frustration for fantasy managers.
  • Steelers and Chiefs "always give Lamar fits" (10:10).
  • “He is clearly still injured... does not have the same elusiveness” (11:10).

Memorable Stat

"Last 9 [Ravens-Steelers] games have gone under the total... chances are at least one of these teams is going to fall short of their team total."
— Andrew Erickson (15:10)

4. Player Prop Segment – Trending Players

Ronda Gadsden, TE (Chargers) Disappointment Prediction (18:45)

• Erickson: Fade Gadsden in a brutal vs. Eagles matchup; underdog for both yards & fantasy points.
  • TE8 in ECR but hasn't topped 10 fantasy points since Week 8.
  • Prop recommendation: Under 47.5 (preferably 42.5) receiving yards.

"He's been under 42 yards in three straight games... and now gets the Eagles. It's a bad spot."
— Andrew Erickson (19:44)

Patrick Mahomes, QB (Chiefs): Worst Fantasy Game of 2025 Prediction (23:39)

• Ryan: Calls for Mahomes to finish outside top 20 QBs vs. Texans’ elite pass defense.
  • Texans have stifled elite QBs and held opponents under 20 (except vs. Jags since Week 7).
  • Props:
    • Under 245.5 passing yards (28:15)
    • Under 1.5 passing TDs; under 34.5 attempts.
    • Likes over 21.5 rushing yards as the only potential “over.”

"I just think it'll be a very, very poor game for him... Texans defense is that good."
— Ryan Warmly (28:55)

• Erickson: Agrees, highlights KC’s O-line injuries compounding the matchup (29:00, 29:06).
• Fun Stat: Only two sub-QB20 finishes all year for Mahomes (25:32).

5. Commanders at Vikings: Jefferson & Rodriguez Contrasts (29:59 – 37:37)

Justin Jefferson: Top 20 WR is No Gimme (29:59)

• Erickson: Predicts Jefferson will crack WR2 territory (top 20) vs. Washington.
  • Prop: Over 60.5 receiving yards (31:09, 33:54)
  • McCarthy expected to return at QB, exposure to volume/air yards.
  • Notes zero top-8 WR finishes for Jefferson this season (!)

"If he's ever going to bounce back, it has to be this week against the Commanders."
— Andrew Erickson (33:31)

• Ryan: Likes +900 1st TD for Jefferson, questions why ECR has others like Zay Flowers above him.

Chris Rodriguez: Top 20 RB vs. Vikings (35:54)

• Ryan: Declares Rodriguez a sneaky RB2 for Week 14 on volume, red zone usage, and recent TD roll.
  • Has a TD in 4 of last 6, faces soft run D.
  • Vikings’ run defense vulnerable; predicts 60+ yards, a score.

"I like Chris Rodriguez to finish as a top 20 running back in fantasy this week... I do think he gets in the end zone."
— Ryan Warmly (35:54)

• Erickson: Cautions against split RB backfield, but agrees Rodriguez’s role is promising for TD upside.

6. Bills vs. Bengals: "The Shootout We've Been Waiting For" (37:42 – 44:24)

Chase Brown (Bengals RB) – Over 100 Scrimmage Yards for 7th Straight (37:42)

• Erickson: Calls Brown a lock for 100+ total yards, even with Samaje Perine’s return.
  • Prop: Over 76.5 rush + receiving yards (39:10)
  • Bills have been trampled by RBs (Sean Tucker, Devon Achane).

Josh Allen/Joe Burrow: Offensive Fireworks Incoming (40:01)

• Ryan: Predicts Bills-Bengals total over 70 points (!);
  • Take over 51.5 (Hard Rock Bet line),
  • Sees Allen + Burrow combining for 6+ TDs.
  • Both in top form, two battered defenses.
• Erickson: Cosigns (42:06), notes five straight unders in this matchup but sees "they’re due" logic.

"This is the one we've been waiting for. I think everybody in this game blows up, honestly."
— Ryan Warmly (41:00)

7. Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week [44:59]

Erickson: Bucky Irving (Buccaneers RB) – RB1 Performance vs. Saints (44:59)

• RB8 in ECR; expects “bell cow” usage and a strong finish after returning from injury.
• Prop: Over 69.5 (or wherever posted) rushing yards.
• Cites Saints as 4th-most generous to RBs (110+ rush yards/game).
• Despite few TDs so far, expects Irving to start scoring in bunches (46:30).

"I think he starts to go on an RB1 tear here... smooth sailing for Bucky rest of season."
— Andrew Erickson (45:15)

Ryan: Eagles Cover Big vs. Chargers (46:37)

• Prop Bet: Eagles -2.5 (was -3, line has dropped further in Eagles’ favor).
• Cites LA’s O-line woes against Eagles’ strong pass rush.
• Herbert’s injury status tilts outlook further toward Eagles regardless.
• Bonus: Both A.J. Brown & Devonta Smith to score TDs.

"My Hard Rock best bet of the week is that the Eagles absolutely smash the Chargers... They easily cover minus 2.5 in Los Angeles."
— Ryan Warmly (47:13)

8. Show Wrap-Up: Listener Engagement & Competition Idea

• Looking for fun competition bets for their season-long predictions (loser might have to sing winner’s song at karaoke in New Orleans!).
• Weekly live streams ahead of TNF (FantasyPros) and MNF (BettingPros) on YouTube (52:17).

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• "This is the people need at this point. You can't make trades anymore, so you got to make moves elsewhere." — Andrew (06:45)
• "I'm still going to continue to start Lamar Jackson... I'm not convinced that this offense is capable of putting it all together right now." — Ryan (10:10)
• "My favorite thing about this show is it's not bold predictions. But if you don't come on with the bold prediction, you get ridiculed." — Andrew (30:40)
• "It's kind of hard to realize he hasn't scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 8... but he's still TE8 in ECR." — Ryan (21:07)
• "Has to be one of the lowest receiving yard props [for Jefferson] since he entered the NFL." — Andrew (33:09)

Important Timestamps

• 03:02 Fantasy playoff management advice
• 07:49 Ravens-Steelers/Lamar Jackson debate
• 18:45 Ronda Gadsden fade (TE, Chargers)
• 23:39 Patrick Mahomes “worst game” prediction
• 29:59 Justin Jefferson/Chris Rodriguez top-20 calls
• 37:42 Chase Brown scrimmage yards streak
• 40:01 Bills-Bengals shootout prediction
• 44:59 Hard Rock best bets: Bucky Irving + Eagles -2.5
• 52:17 Competition/karaoke bet idea, live stream plugs

Final Takeaways

• Actionable Week 14 Fantasy/Betting Preview: Show focused on getting you fantasy wins AND cashing props as playoff implications heat up.
• Listener Engagement: Hosts encourage fans to weigh in on their prediction competition, suggesting a fun, immersive twist for the coming weeks.
• Sharper-Than-Usual Outlooks: Strong opinions on Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Bucky Irving worth factoring into your start/sit and prop bet selections.

Best of luck in Week 14 — and don’t forget to optimize that kicker spot!