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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Top 10 Fantasy Football Predictions & Prop Bets for Week 15 (Ep. 1889)
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- [00:00]
A
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Warning. This product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined as I am every Tuesday by Andrew Erickson. Buddy, we are talking Week 15 predictions. Yes, that's right. We are into the fantasy playoffs for just about every league out there. This is week two of this iteration of the show. Once you get past the trade deadlines, this is kind of what the show turns into. If you missed last week, just a quick refresher, we're going to be doing some predictions. We'll go five to one from each of us, first four kind of in order. The last one is our sort of best bet of the week and we're going to track and see who does better throughout the season here. We had our first episode of this version of the show last week. We're going to continue it with this week and the next few and really see who does better. Ericsson, before we dive into how we did last week, just a quick check in here at the playoffs. How did you do? How many playoffs did you make? How many buys did you earn? How. How is your sort of overall? I hate using the word portfolio, but how is your portfolio looking here as we embark upon the fantasy postseason?
- [01:32]
B
As the kids like to say, it's pretty mid for the most part. I snuck into all my fantasy playoffs for the most part as the number six seed. So all you got to do is get to the dance. Anything can happen. I'm probably going to lose one team week by week as the, as I get exposed a little bit here because I didn't have a ton of dominant teams except the one that in the content team league where I was the number one seed actually had to buy this past week. So I also think I had another league where the playoffs started last week, which I don't understand why.
- [02:02]
A
Point of order. I was number two seed and also had a buy this last week. So let's you know, the two of us are really representing that content league strong here. It's not just you. Don't. Don't take that away from me.
- [02:11]
B
Yeah, and I probably would have been screwed if I didn't have the Buy because I, oh, I totally would have been.
- [02:15]
A
My team scored like 80 this week.
- [02:17]
B
I I would have had to start to Rod Taylor who got injured. So that would have been really bad because I had Drake May on a bye week. So Drake May's back facing the Bills this week. Gonna be a shootout. So yeah, looking forward to it. Week 15 playoffs are here for the majority of leagues and this is the time where, hey, time to show out. Weeks 1 through 14. Doesn't matter anymore. It's 00. It's winner take all, lose and go home. Let's break it down with some of these predictions. Get people set for the week. At least the start of the week.
- [02:45]
A
Some quick accountability for me. 14 leagues I was in this year, I made the playoffs in 11 of them and four of those I received a buy. Ironically, one of the three leagues I did not make the playoffs in, I had the third most points scored this season. It was just dumb luck and you know, sometimes it works out that way. But 11 out of 14 plus 4 buys. So I feel pretty good. I've had a few years in a row where I got a lot of teams to the semifinals and then lost in the semifinals in almost every league. So I'm hoping we don't have that repeat itself. But sure feels like it's shaping up that way right now.
- [03:19]
Quickly, before we get into the predictions part of the show, any thoughts on Monday Night Football for the listeners? Any recap here from Eagles Chargers? Obviously I was predicting that the Eagles are going to smash the Chargers. Clearly did not happen. Just any, any fancy takeaways. I mean a game like that was so many turnovers, that's inherently fluky. Probably not going to happen again. And it just kind of throws the rhythm of the whole game into whack.
- [03:41]
B
I mean Jalen Hurts had a play where he had negative 4 points.
- [03:45]
A
I have never seen that in my whole life. I doubt anybody has. I didn't look it up, but I.
- [03:49]
B
Mean I thought that the Mahomes catch for negative 10 yards was going to be the biggest negative play that we see from a quarterback. But Jalen Hurts took the cake with again. He thr four interceptions. Had the fumble on one of his interceptions. Just terrible day at the office for Jalen Hurts. But bounce back spot for the Philadelphia Eagles next week against the Las Vegas Raiders. T Barkley looked good again. Ripped off an explosive 50 yard touchdown run against the Chargers, who have kind of been a boomer bus run defense. I think it's kind of status quo with the Eagles players again we know that their offense can be bumpy at times. Again, it was a tougher matchup. Charger defense has been good this year. I think more of the story was the Chargers offense with Omarion Hampton coming back. Still kind of a split committee with Kamani Vidal kind of being the he started the game, looked pretty good, had that 60 yard catch on the first drive. Hampton ended up scoring. Hampton did out touch him in the red zone, which I think is pretty key 5 to 1. And I would expect Hampton to probably take on the 60% in a 60 kind of 40 split. I just don't think we'll go back to HAMPTON as oh, 80% of the snaps because Vidal has been really good for the most part for the Chargers kind of filling in. So I think he's going to still have a role. But I will say the Chargers turned into a much heavier run offense with all this. Justin Herbert injury, injuries on their offensive line. Against the Eagles defense, their pass rate over expectation was minus 12% in against the Eagles it was plus 4% every other game or from weeks one through 13. And he was constantly under pressure. I believe that from NextGen stats they had that Justin Herbert was pressured on 68% of his drop backs, which is the highest pressure rate of any quarterback this season. And you know who's facing next week is the Kansas City chiefs who pressured C.J. stroud on 54% of his drawbacks on Sunday Night Football. So I would say right now with this Chargers passing game, you can't start anybody except Ladd, who is probably more of a wide receiver 2, 3 play than a backhand wide receiver 1, which is kind of where he's been ranked since he started heating up a little bit towards the middle of the season. But can't trust Keenan Allen, can't trust Quinn Johnson, can't trust Gadsden either, who has kind of fallen off a cliff. I know he was one of the guys I hit on other productions last week where expecting him to kind of disappoint here. And again, another dud from him with just one catch. So very concerned about the Chargers passing game. Herbert is running, which I thought was. I mean, the Eagles are trying to punch him, punch his hand last night, right? They're like, oh, we're punching the ball. It's like now we're trying to punch his hand and make him uncomfortable. But give credit to Justin Herbert, man. Like the dude balled out, gutsy performance playing with a broken hand. I was utterly impressed he.
- [06:21]
A
I mean, I've been impressed him from Week one this season. Right. Like I remember talking with you after that first game and saying like this. It just looks like a different Justin Herbert. Like it feels like he leveled up this year. Obviously injury stuff has been an issue. Has it totally panned out that way? But yeah, I just, I continue to be really impressed with, with what we've seen out of Herbert this season. I, I have like pretty high hopes for him if everything's healthy going into next season. Speaking of, you're that around a Gadsden pick. You went three and two last week. We're giving you the, the Bucky Irving RB1 finish because it was technically true. He was RB12 spiritually. You know, we talk about the spiritual loss he did. He didn't exactly have this big blow up game that you were. He didn't hit his prop which is not what we're tracking. He didn't have the big blow up. Gave me really talking about. It's kind of a down week four running backs outside of the first couple. He scored like 15 points. It was a good week. You were happy you started. Bucky Irving catching the touchdown pass helped. We'll give it to you. It wasn't exactly the blow up game we were maybe anticipating.
- [07:19]
B
Here's our RB12. On a week with four teams on by just snuck in and basically if Videl and Hanam did like combine their.
- [07:27]
A
Score into one, I was gonna say yes. If they would have been split.
- [07:30]
B
Yeah, he would have been RB13 and would have would have taken me out. But hey, technically still top 12 running back, a fantasy RB one.
- [07:36]
A
So it did get you up to, to a 3 and 2 winning record in week 14. I also had a 3 and 2 record. There was no real gray area for mine. I missed on Chris Rodriguez and the Eagles smashing the Chargers. The others I hit very easily. You know, yours were mostly like pretty straightforward besides the Bucky one. So if you want to drop in the comments that you strongly disagree with counting the Bucky hit, let us know. But obviously he did hit top 12 so I think it's fair to leave it there. Which means we're tied three and two a piece here through one week. Like I said, we'll keep track of that throughout the season. Let's get into our five predictions here. Erickson for week 15, starting with you, what's number five?
- [08:16]
B
Number five prediction going to Thursday Night Football. Emeka Ebuka is going to bounce back here against the Atlanta Falcons. Been extremely frustrating for the Buccaneers rookie wide receiver basically since that hamstring injury he had In a game where the Buccaneers lost a bunch of their wide receivers just been really inefficient for most of his weeks. He did have one blow up game against the Patriots but besides that it's been a lot of targets, a lot of air yards and a lot of disappointment for Imeka Egbuka because and it's crazy we were thinking that, okay the concern with Ibuka coming in is we're not going to see enough volume from him. You know, Godwin is there, Evans is there and then it gets the perfect run out right where those guys go down, those guys miss so much time and we're thinking okay the target floodgates are going to open. And that has really been the case for him. If you look at his expected points per game since week seven, he is number three in expected fantasy points per game. He's a 29 plus percent target share in his last seven games. However, nobody scored fewer fantasy points versus expectation then.
- [09:19]
Negative 55. He's scoring almost eight fantasy points less than he should be. So again I'm this isn't any breaking analysis. If you have him on your team. You know he's been a big disappointment but we still have to consider what kind of usage he's seeing in this offense and he's still the target alpha leader in this Buccaneers passing game. So against the Atlanta Falcons I think he can finish as a top 20 wide receiver. He had faced the Falcons back in week one when Mike Evans was healthy in the lineup. He went for 67 yards, he caught two touchdowns. He was a top three three wide receiver on the week. Believe he finished wide receiver three on the week. So I think he's going to go over 51 and a half receiving yards. You're going to see his receiving prop drop probably substantially just because of how poor he has been in the last couple weeks. And I do think that if Mike Evans does come back, which there is a chance that this can take some pressure off of a booka where maybe the targets fall a little bit but his efficiency can boost back up. Todd Moles has already talked about hey we want to get him going early. We want to build up his confidence in this particular matchup and when you look at the X's and O's, I would expect AJ Terrell to shadow Mike Evans if Evans plays in this game. That's what we saw in week one. That should give some more favorable matchups to some of these weaker cornerbacks on the Falcons for Ibuka. So I like Ibuka in this spot here to be a top 20 guy. I think you still have to start him because there's just too much volume. We don't know what like, Evan's role will be necessarily, but I think that when he is on the field, he's going to draw coverage from AJ Terrell. So I'm going back to Ibuka. I know it's been disappointing, but he'll be a top 20 guy this week.
- [10:49]
A
It's been more than disappointing. I, I'll, I'll even take the San Francisco and Detroit games. Just. I'm not even going to count them because obviously he got hurt against San Francisco and Detroit. Like, nobody thought he was going to play in that game. He, he did end up playing and getting 12 targets, but like, he was limited that entire week. So, like, I'll, I'll take those two off the table here. Going back the other last, I think it's six games. Yeah, six games. His finishes wide receiver 55, wide receiver 4, wide receiver 44, wide receiver 50, wide receiver 43, wide receiver 76. I mean, it, it has been not just disappointing, it's been like pretty much unplayable. In all of these games, he does. He has one game since week five with over eight fantasy points in half PPR scoring, and that's that game against New England where he was wide receiver 4. That is his only game with a touchdown since week five. He, of course, had the opportunity to catch one. This last week. He's not been on the same page with Baker, but he's also been, you know, having, you know, some drops here and there and just not looking as good. Like, it's just. It's just been bad all the way around. It really feels like. And I wanted to point out Erickson, Ibuka is finally moving down an ecr. Going into last week, he was still like, I forget. I was like, watch, you were 14 or so ahead of week 14. Now in, you know, early, early rankings, obviously it's still only Tuesday morning. This could change. But in early rankings, he's down at wide receiver 26. The. The managers and then the rankers in the industry are finally saying, listen, we got to move this guy down in consensus. He's in fact one spot behind Chris Godwin, his teammate in consensus in this early part of the week, ahead of week 15. So does that feel like an area where you're going to be well ahead of consensus or are you also going to be moving him down?
- [12:25]
B
I think I'll be a little bit higher than consensus on EGBUCA just because I outlined the volume that he's seeing is off the charts like double digit targets. And I think that when Mike Evans, if he comes back, that does alter what you could expect. As I outlined, I think that maybe his efficiency can get a boost if Mike Evans ends up playing in this game. I do admit though, Godwin has looked good the last couple weeks, averaging over 40 yards after the catch in the last two games. So both guys I think can be starting territory. I don't know if I'll get Godwin ahead of Igbuka, but I think in the wide receiver 2 range I think that's probably where I'll settle on both guys ultimately and then obviously need to shake a couple things up if Mike Evans ends up suiting up on Thursday night, which we still don't know at the time of this recording, but it seemed like he was really trying to play last week, playing off the broken collarbone and so it'll be interesting to see if he ends up suiting up.
- [13:14]
A
Let's go to my first prediction here. Jacoby Brissette's hot streak is going to end in Houston. He will finish outside the top 12 for the first time since taking over as the starter. Brissette has been awesome. He has made Michael Wilson when Marvin Harrison Jr. Is not on the field awesome. He has obviously helped elevate Trey McBride out of where he already was. He has been just a godsend for the Cardinals and in this passing game since stepping into the lineup for Kyler Murray since the bye week in week eight, he's QB10, QB10, QB4, QB8, QB8, QB12. Two weeks before that he was QB7, QB12. So this is going back for like most of the season at this point and I'm here to tell you that that is ending this week. It'll be no surprise. I did a similar prediction last week for Patrick Mahomes, who's obviously much more established than Brissette against this Texans defense was very much correct on that one and I'm running it back this week with Brissette who like I said, has been on fire. It's not happening against the Texans. Like I don't care what quarterback you are, it's not happening against this Houston defense. They are so good. They are a defense that like I, I really don't know. We're in the fantasy playoffs now, so you're going up against a good team. Like this is it, this is when it really matters. I don't know if I would start a single quarterback against them except Josh Allen and I know, Allen did a really bad job against them just a couple of weeks ago, but I think he is just so on that level that like, I, like I. You could not sit Josh Allen. Right. And obviously that's not going to matter. He's not going to be playing them again. But I'm trying to make a larger point that I think literally every other quarterback in football this season, the way the quarterbacks have been playing this season, there's not like a ton of the, you know, the guys that have really like stepped up. It's not the strongest MVP field. It feels like all that I would sit everybody. So Jacoby Brissette, I am not playing him against his Texas defense. You wouldn't be starting Geno Smith next week anyway. I'm not starting Justin Herbert against them in week 17. Like, I will not be starting anybody against this defense all season. And I don't think you should either. And I think Brissette, like, my, my prediction is that Brissette is not a QB one because he has been every time he started a game this season. But I don't think he's going to be inside the top 20. Genuinely. Like, like, this defense is insane. The prop I'm taking is under one and a half passing touchdowns. I'm kind of just rambling at this point. I mean, I could have kept this to about 10 seconds of analysis. Houston, Texas defense really, really, really good. End of discussion. Like, I don't think anything else really matters beyond that. I think they're the best defensive football.
- [15:47]
B
Yeah. I could not agree more with this as I was updating my weekly quarterback rankings for Week 15. How low can you rank Jacoby Brissette this week just because you can't recommend starting in any capacity? If the Texans are shutting out guys like Mahomes and Josh Allen, what do you think they're going to do against Jacoby Brissette, who again, we have to admit that a lot of his stats are coming in fourth quarter, second half garbage time. And I don't know if the Texans are just going to kind of let that happen. I think they're like, no, like we're going to set the clamps down on any offense that we face because that's how we win these games. So again, the Cardinals defense has been bad this year too. So especially over the last couple weeks. So even if it's a closer game than the spread suggests and it's not the Texans blowing out the Cardinals, I think I talked about this on the betting pro show, but the garbage man has Been taking out the trash every single week when it comes to these Arizona Cardinals. This might be the week that he doesn't show up to pick up the trash when it comes to Jacoby reset. So we know that garbage time runs out eventually. Back in the Blake Bortles days every single week. It was glorious fantasy QB1 numbers and then you run into a buzzsaw like the Texans defense and those fantasy points can go away. I think that a bigger concern for fantasy managers, it's not really Trey McBride, because what else are you going to do? You can't not start him. Is Michael Wilson actually where he was ECR8 last week and that wasn't even high enough based on what his performance actually was. He's seeing 17 targets per game without Marvin Harrison in the lineup. Volume should still be on his side, but what kind of efficiency will he post in a brutal matchup against the Texans where he could draw Stingley Lassiter, two of these really strong cornerbacks for the Texans. So it'll be interesting where Wilson ends up settling in ecr. I think there's obviously a floor with him because of the amount of volume that he's seeing, especially with all these receivers injuries on the Arizona Cardinals. But what is his actual ceiling going to be? I mean, could this be a game where, yeah, he sees 20 targets but he catches like six or seven and. And then that's maybe not even that bad of a performance. So interested to see where ECR moves him because, yeah, you're not going to see Jacoby anywhere near the top 12. But will Michael Wilson kind of follow suit? I'm kind of interested to see is Harrison.
- [17:58]
A
Is there any chance he's playing or is he definitely going to miss another week? I haven't still TBD anything, if any.
- [18:05]
B
It almost makes it easier to just bench Wilson outright if Harrison does play. Right.
- [18:09]
A
I was gonna say Harrison plays. I would not. I would not play Wilson again in this matchup. That would be like a very straightforward thing to me.
- [18:15]
B
Yeah, that would make it really easy.
- [18:16]
A
I mean, the question is, would you play Harrison if Harrison's playing?
- [18:19]
B
I know.
- [18:21]
A
I think literally If Burn Harrison Jr. Plays, I think Trey McBride is the only player on this offense he can start.
- [18:27]
B
Yep.
- [18:28]
A
I don't think there's anybody else. Yeah, Houston's really good. He's QB18 in ECR, by the way.
- [18:35]
Like him versus Justin Herbert. Banged up bad offensive line against Kansas City. That's an interesting1. Him vs. JJ McCarthy. Finally had a good game. You know, he's now going up in Dallas, which has been better prior to this Lions game. On defense Bryce Young, Caleb Williams against Cleveland, these are some of the names that are right behind Brissette. I think you'd make a case for I'm not saying you would definitely move him down past all of them, but I think you can make a case for it. Like I, I want nothing to do with Brissette this week.
- [19:02]
B
I would say too the Cardinals, their stud tackle Paris Johnson Jr. He got hurt last week. We saw what this Texas defense did to our beat up offensive line last week against the Chiefs. So just be very, very careful with.
- [19:17]
A
Again, would you agree with me that like obviously they're not going to play every quarterback but if, if every quarterback was on the table as a potential opponent, do you agree that Allen is like maybe the only one you'd start against? Like, I really would not want to start any even the elites, I would just like not. I think they're going to shut down everybody. I think they are that good.
- [19:35]
B
We saw them shut down Josh Allen already this year, so I know he's.
- [19:39]
A
Got a different level where it's like I can't. But like, like I don't know. I don't know that I would really want to start Stafford or May or Hertz or Lamar or Burrow or Dak who have all been good, you know, at times this season for some of them, like I, I just don't want to do it. So I don't know, maybe that's a little too aggressive. But they're really, really good. That's the point. We've got a special offer for everyone. Unlock a month of Betting Pros Premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today. Use promo code FP1MONTH. That's the number one not spelled out. Get access to tools like the same game parlay tool, the Prop Bet Analyzer and the Prize Picks Prop Bet Cheat sheet. Don't miss out. Try it free for one month. Now available on iOS and Android. If you're an inventory specialist in a warehouse, Grainger knows you've probably faced a situation like this before. Your forklift, your facility's workhorse is leaking hydraulic fluid and with the full schedule of shipments on the docket, the this has the potential to cause a major delay of game. But you're not worried. You've prepared for this type of situation and you have an ace in the hole. Granger Grainger offers professional grade products for every industry, from hydraulic oils and hoses to so much more. Plus fast, dependable delivery so you can Be confident that you'll have the product you need on hand to fix that forklift and get it back in the game. Call 1-800-granger. Click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. When it comes to managing your money, you've got to think like a fantasy gm. It's all about making smart moves. That's where the Klarna card comes in. It's like that perfect waiver wire pickup for your everyday finances. You can pay in full now or plan ahead to pay later so you stay flexible and always in control of your budget. It's your debit card upgraded, no credit impact to apply, no annual fees and it works anywhere Visa is accepted. Think of it as a game winning play for your everyday finances. Sign up for the Klarna card by downloading the Klarna app or learn more@klarna.com US Klarna card and take control of your purchases your way Klarna Card Pay later Plans issued by Webbank Deposits in your balance account are held at WebBank, member FDIC anywhere visa is accepted. Certain merchant product good and service restrictions apply. Some merchants do not accept virtual cards, physical card only included with a paid Klarna membership plan the holidays are upon us again and I don't know about you, but there's one phrase I'm afraid of hearing above all else. It's not honey, the in laws are staying over. It's honey, I forgot the batteries because there's nothing worse than getting caught off guard on Christmas morning without batteries. And that's where Duracell comes in. Duracell batteries are the only battery brand built different with power boost ingredients, which are a unique blend of nickel and lithium designed to deliver long lasting power. You put a lot of thought into the gifts you give, so make sure they're loaded up with Duracell batteries before you wrap them. Go into the holidays prepared and stock up on the only battery brand with power boost ingredients. Choose Duracell. Eric said we went pretty long on those first two. That's my fault for taking 10 minutes to say Houston defense good. Let's go to your number four prediction.
- [22:42]
B
Going to go with Kenneth Walker, RB1 season against the Indianapolis Colts. The that could be trotting out Philip Rivers as our quarterback. Potentially. Probably not. But not Daniel Jones. Yeah, probably Riley Leonard or Brett Rippen if Leonard can't play because he's dealing with a knee injury. Knee injury. Regardless, it's just a really good spot for the Seahawks offense. They're going to score points in some way or some form because they have a massive implied team total playing at home against a pretty lifeless Colts team at this point just lost their quarterback. So I like Ken Walker in this spot, to be totally honest. And last week and actually over the last couple games, Walker's usage has kind of been encouraging. It's been hard to tell in the raw box score because of these weird blowout game scripts that the Seahawks keep playing in. And of course like this could be another blowout game script, but I do think that this will play into Walker's favor here. If you look at last week, Walker actually played 60 of the snaps with Sam Darnold as the quarterback. He had two targets near the end zone. He didn't score. He had three red zone carries. Last three weeks the touches have been 42 to 29 in favor of Ken Walker over Zach Charbonnet. He has 13 plus opportunities in seven straight games to Charbonnet's four. Now Indianapolis has been able to be run on the last couple games because they've been missing DeForest Buckner. He is eligible to come off injured reserve this week, but he's dealing with a neck injury. So still TBD on whether he's going to play or not. If he doesn't play in this game, I think that this is a spot where the Seahawks look to get Walker really, really going. He's been better at home this year. 60 plus rushing yards in three of his last four games. And to your point or to my point about the Colts run defense being weak without Buckner, last four running backs that have faced the Colts have at least 64 plus rushing yards against them. So I like Walker my prop to be going over 60 and a half rushing yards this week against the Colts at home.
- [24:32]
A
Do you like Charbonnet also in this game just given the matchup? Because he's my prop, he's not my prediction, but we'll talk about him now. Any I think the Seahawks defense special teams is going to win playoff matchups this week against the Colts with whoever is at quarterback and I'm kind of going to kind of predict that they score over 20 fantasy points in this game. And I mean the Seahawks defense has been awesome. Like I think three of their last four games they have 19 plus points anyway. But going up against this offense without Daniel Jones I just think they can focus all their attention on on Taylor and dominate. And because I expect Seattle to dominate, I have Zach Charbonnet anytime touchdown as my prop. Because even if Walker Maybe ends up having the bigger day. Like you have him as an RB one. I think they're going to be up by so much that we're going to get a lot of Charbonnet carries and I think he'll end up getting into the end zone against what has been a struggling run defense in what I expect to be a blowout. So do you also like. I. I'm not saying do you like him better than Walker, but do you also like Charbonnet?
- [25:36]
B
I think all Seahawks are firmly in play because they're going to score a lot of points. So it's just a matter of, okay, who scores the touchdowns here. Now, usually it's Jacksonville. The Jigba, he usually scores all the touchdowns. But to your point, could be Seahawks defense, it could be the running backs. That being said, there's too much upside in the Seahawks offense to leave them on fantasy benches. So Charbonnet, not someone that you're always looking to necessarily start, but as a flex play where you could see the upside path for him, I agree with you. So I like all Seahawks this week. They all have a ton of upside and I think that upside is ultimately wins your fantasy matchups in the playoffs. Again, you could see no one would be surprised if ken Walker has 30 points this week. Wouldn't be surprised sack Charbonnet has 30 points this week because if they are able to score multiple touchdowns, then that's the easiest way to get there. So, yes, high on the Seahawks offense to score points. Even Sam Darnold, right. Someone that's kind of been inconsistent, looked terrible in the first half against the Falcons. Then the second half plays out and he's fine putting up monster numbers to jsn. So yeah, fire up those Seahawks.
- [26:35]
A
What is the spread in that game? I meant to look it up and I forgot. I'll try and pull it up now.
- [26:38]
B
I'm pretty sure it's two touchdowns. Thirteen.
- [26:41]
A
Yeah. I mean it should be like, all right, that's especially.
- [26:45]
B
Look, I mean if it's Brett Rippin, like, like this is like Max.
- [26:49]
A
It should maybe be 2.0 touchdowns.
- [26:52]
B
Like we just saw this play out, right?
- [26:55]
A
It's. It's 13 and a half on Hard Rock Bet. So it's just under two touchdowns. That. And that doesn't. It doesn't feel like enough. Like I will take the Seahawks in like, like kind of easily maybe even.
- [27:11]
That'S. This game's also in Seattle. Like, it's, it's, it's a tough.
- [27:14]
B
It's a tough spot again, like I Just said we saw this two weeks ago with Macros were going to Seattle making his first start.
- [27:23]
A
It's like this, this total is 42. I'm like I Colts are not getting 10. I don't think so. I mean they're, they're expecting a big game from the Seahawks.
- [27:33]
B
I don't think that you can start.
- [27:35]
A
Any Colts 42 with a spread of 13 and a half is hilarious actually.
- [27:41]
B
Do you start any Colts player not name Jonathan Taylor?
- [27:45]
A
I would not no. I would not start like Pitman or Pierce or Tyler.
- [27:49]
B
Warren's getting, getting the bench to get in the ax too. He's tough too because it's tight end a little bit different but and it's also Seahawks have been bad against tight ends this year too.
- [27:57]
A
I would start, I would start Warren because like you think about a bad quarterback like dumping off the short passes a lot. Try and let him do something after the catch. I know Warren has like been a little inconsistent. He's a tight end of everybody's inconsistent at the position.
- [28:12]
But generally has been good right like you know, especially early on. So I, I, I would be fine starting Warren but I Warren and Taylor, that's it. I'm not starting a receiver in this game for, for the Colts.
- [28:22]
B
I would agree.
- [28:24]
A
Let's go to the next prediction. I want to actually ask you so you're going to talk about Kyle Menungai here and I want to ask you him versus somebody like Charbonnet. Now, based on the fact that you have a very positive prediction here, which I'll let you say, I'm guessing you're going to go Manung guy but going up against, you know, a good Browns rush defense, they're both kind of backup spots. I think it's interesting to pit the two of them against each other. So what do you think about that comparison? And then also why do you like Manangai?
- [28:46]
B
I like Manang guy because he has been a staple in the Bears rushing attack that ranks number one in the NFL in rushing success rate. He actually has the highest success rate of the two Bears running backs this season. He has been a star and the Bears have talked about how did this guy fall all the way to the seventh round. And I think it's because he went to Rutgers. He wasn't this flashy running back but he was just someone that was a bowling ball when they got the ball in his hands and he picked up the yards that were blocked for him and he doesn't fumble the ball. So the coaching staff is continuing to believe on mananga, he has 12 plus carries in four straight games. And you look at this Browns defense, they gave up a career high in rushing arts to Tony Pollard last week. 25 carries for 161 yards and two touchdowns. Tony Pollard was left for dead in fantasy football. At least that's where I had him. I had no consideration of using him in any capacity whatsoever.
- [29:37]
A
We have not said his name on any show throughout the week. In two months on the road against.
- [29:43]
B
The Browns, I'm expecting him to do absolutely nothing and he has a career day. And something to point out about this Browns run defense, this was the first game last week without defensive tackle Malik Collins and I kind of noted that in some of my betting stuff that I was looking at. I was wondering, okay, I wonder how much of a difference this is going to make from the run defense. And I mean maybe it he really was that good of kind of being that interior pass rush or interior run defender. We see this a lot with these teams where you lose one big guy up front and it can drastically alter how good your defense is against the run. See the Patriots with Milton Williams, he's been out the last couple weeks and the Patriots run defense hasn't been nearly as good. So we may be seeing something similar here in Cleveland with their run defense being not nearly as good as the season long stats would suggest. Last four games, the Browns have actually led 184 rushing yards in two of those last four games. They're on the road here playing in Chicago and I think that if the Bears want to impose their will with a physical run game, it is Kyle Manungai all the way that they're going to give the ball to in December. Chicago Bears football. Man, watching him live in that packers game, the dude runs so physical you could see him making contact with packers defenders and the decals flying off of their helmets because of how hard mangai was hitting the hole. So I think this is a spot where he could see double digit carry or excuse me, up to like 20 carries in this game against a Brown Stevens that they can be had on the run. And honestly does it even matter how good the Browns defense has been? Because the Bears have shown they can run the ball on literally any team in the NFL and at home. I think that's what they're going to want to do here. So I like Manangai to be a top 24 running back this week. I'm going to take the over on his rushing yards prop which I believe opened around 57 and a half rushing yards. I'm taking the over.
- [31:29]
A
Brown's defense is better at home so the fact that it's getting game is in Chicago helps the case. I'm a little confused by his ranking. He's RB 29 in ECR. Like I, I, I don't he should be higher than that in my opinion. Like I look at some of these other names around him like Chris Rodriguez, Aaron Jones. I mean he, he's a few spots behind DeAndre Swift. I mean obviously I think they're both intriguing starts. Devin Neal like a Marion Hampton. What is his use is really going to look like if Fidel's not going anywhere and you know going up in Kansas City like there's there's some interesting names that I think you could talk yourself into getting Mananga ahead of. I do love that like last year you and I were all in on estimate. We were the estimates and we were just wrong but now we were the Manon guys and we were right. Like we got, we got one back and I like I was all over him and I have really enjoyed watching him outshine his draft capital this year. So I like really agree with this one.
- [32:23]
I do think him vs. Charbonnet is interesting because I'm, I'm pretty confident Charbonnet is going to get some touchdown scoring opportunities manang guy like I think he will but you I don't know for sure. I'm, I'm more confident that Charbonnet will which at the end of the day sometimes is all that matters. But I, I like them both even though they're both backups here. This and Manangai even with the, the tough matchup.
- [32:47]
Let's go to another prediction here. Lions Rams is from me. Lions Rams is actually going to be a fantasy disappointment generally speaking. I didn't want to pick one player because you never know like if somebody gets a touchdown late or whatever. But I just think general this, this is very much a spiritual prediction right? We, we will know it when we see it if it was a fantasy disappointment or not. And I think generally speaking this will be a disappointment because expectations are just so crazy high. This is a total of 50. Actually it was 55. Oh my gosh. I, I have it up here. It was 55. When I put the sheet together yesterday it's already up to 56 on Hard Rock. Bet that has to be the highest we have seen this year. I cannot remember seeing a higher one honestly. Like I'm sure it has happened. I'm not saying this is a record setting total but I cannot recall specifically the last time I saw a total over 55 up to 56 on Hard Rock. Bet is really remarkable. So I'm going to take the under on 56. Point scored is, is my prop because I think it'll generally, generally be disappointing. These two teams combined for I believe 89 points last week, which you might say, okay, then you're crazy to take the under in the 50s. I think like there's room for regression there, right? Like even if both offenses are good, like maybe they have to settle for one or two more field goals rather than touchdowns. The other thing too is the Rams defense. Like I know Everybody talks about McVeigh and stat rams defense is awesome. It would not surprise me going up against this Detroit offensive line if they gave the Lions real actual problems. Now I'm not saying, hey, it's a fancy playoffs, go sit Jameer Gibbs or Amon Ross St. Brown or anything like that, but I would like maybe dial, dial down your expectations because I, I think this Rams defense is, is really, it's not the Texans defense, but it's really, really good. This game's in la, so it's still in a dome, but it's not in Coors Field. And I think there's a little room for just some small regression. Like you're not going to score 40 points every week. These teams both did it last week. I think they could fall back to earth a little bit. The Lions defense is so bagged up that I am, I'm a little nervous that Stafford could just throw for like a thousand yards and you know, get them really close to the over on his own. But I think generally speaking this will be a disappointment.
- [34:57]
B
Erickson, my lean with what you're saying seems like you want to take the Lions team total under, right? Because it seems like you're really pro Rams here but less confident in lines. And that's kind of how I view the same, the same matchup.
- [35:11]
A
I like taking the Overall under because 56 is such a high number. But if I if you were like no, you had to pick a team total, it would be Lions under. That would be what I would go correct.
- [35:23]
B
I would be interested to see something I have to probably look at when I'm doing the betting write ups for this particular game is the recent matchups with Jared Goff against Sean McVeigh and.
- [35:32]
A
How well they played early last season. Right? It was like, it was like a 26 to 21 game or something early.
- [35:38]
B
Last year, which clearly he's not 56.
- [35:41]
A
Well under so now Stafford's playing better this year than he did at that stage last year. And, you know, Gibbs is awesome and like, these are two good offenses. I'm not. I'm not saying they're bad. I just.56 is a remarkable number.
- [35:54]
B
Yeah, it's actually. To your point, the highest total was actually the Cowboys Lions game last week, which was 55.
- [36:02]
A
Yeah, I. I think that the, like, the path to me winning this prediction is like, maybe if. If only two players have good fantasy days and the rest are bad, that's a disappointment. Like, if you get to three, maybe that's too much. I don't know. Maybe we can just kind of play it by, like, it might be kind of hard to define it, like, ahead of time. Like I said, I think we'll kind of know it when we see it. If this was like, hey, we got the fun scoring game we expected, or no, this expectations are high. So it, you know, to your point.
- [36:34]
B
You'Re also just playing the numbers game. Right. Where this game could be 30, 24 and you win. It's also still a shootout.
- [36:41]
A
Probably should auto take the under on any line that is ever over. Like 53. Like that. Like, you should probably do that and you get up to 56. I mean, it's just, well, similar.
- [36:53]
B
It's similar to the process of betting the over in the Browns Titans game when it was at 31 and a half points. Yeah, but it's just. It's so low. It doesn't matter what the optics of the actual matchup are. It's just okay. Well, yeah, anything can happen. It's any given.
- [37:08]
A
But funnily enough, I'm usually on the other side of this. Like, I'm the guy who last week said we are getting the big Bills Bengals game. Like, even though it's a really high total. Like, I usually am the guy who says, I know it's high, but I want to bet it anyway. This one is like, A, it's so high and B, I see reasons for why it might be a disappointing game. I. I think these teams could move the ball and just end up settling for a lot of field goals. Like, like. And then that gets us to where we're trying to go. It's like, okay, if Jake Bates has a big game, we're not counting. That's. That's still a fancy disappointment. So now you've got Jake Bates as.
- [37:39]
B
Kicker one on your team.
- [37:41]
A
Yeah.
- [37:43]
If you want a chance to win. B. John Robinson and Drake London signed mini helmet for free courtesy of our friends@pristine auction.com all you need to do is head to fantasypros.com contest, complete the form and either download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review for the podcast, or follow us on x Instagram or TikTok at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive. We will be announcing a winner right here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. Erickson Our number two predictions each have to do with Ravens Bengals I'll let you go first.
- [38:18]
B
Mike Gaseko Mode. He's going to finish as a tight end one against the Baltimore Ravens. Now this comes with the caveat that T. Higgins sits for this matchup. We know that T. Higgins has re entered the concussion protocol. He missed two weeks ago. He played last week, but he took a couple hits to the head and he's re entered the concussion protocol after reporting symptoms of a concussion. And we've seen the splits with Mike Kaseki with T. Higgins out of the lineup. Now, it didn't come to fruition against the Ravens a couple weeks ago on Thanksgiving, but all of last year we saw Mike Kaseki just out absolutely smash in the games that T. Higgins missed. And it kind of makes sense when you think about it. Stylistically, Gasecki really operates as a big bodied slot wide receiver. He doesn't play traditional tight end and they like to use him a lot in the red zone. And even last week I was really low on Gasecki against the Buffalo Bills just given how good they've been against tight ends. But he was perfect 6 for 86, 1.38target rate per one. He was making one handed catches in the snow like it was a really fun game for Gaseki and I think that he can have a big game again against the Baltimore Ravens two weeks in a row. Disappointing in the first matchup against the Ravens. Like I mentioned, just 2 for 19 on four targets. But he did have some red zone targets. He had an end zone target in that game. It was also Joe Burrow's first game back. So I think that with the performance from last week they can build on that and I think volume should be there for Gaseki as the slot receiver for the Bengals if T. Higgins ultimately sits. So I'm gonna go with Kaseki finishing as a fantasy tight end one and he's gonna go over his receiving arts prop, which I found around 35 and a half receiving yards.
- [39:50]
A
I don't really know what to do with picking players against this Ravens defense right now because they genuinely are. It's not just playing worse teams. They are a better defense than they were in the first month of the season. Like, I think unequivocally, like, partly from getting healthier, partly from moving Kyle Hamilton around, partly from just like playing better in general.
- [40:08]
But I still don't think they're actually that good. Like, they're, they're a very frustrating defense to watch as a fan of the team. Burrow obviously has, has had no rust coming back from this injury and has looked very good, including, you know, against this Ravens defense. You know, the Bengals, obviously, they got a lot of turnovers, but, like, they won that game going away.
- [40:32]
So I think this is like a pretty reasonable one. I do think, and I'll loop this into my prediction, that this is like, like last year, we got two Ravens Bengals games that were instant classics, like 38, 35, 41 to 38, like crazy games back and forth, high score, both offenses. I kind of think we get that. We did not get that on Thanksgiving. I think we could have maybe gotten close to that if not for like a ridiculous amount of turnovers in the, in those fumbles by the Ravens offense. I think we could kind of maybe get there this week. So my prediction is that we get the real Lamar Jackson, like, truly returning to form QB1 performance in the rematch with Cincinnati. And you pointed out when I put this in the sheet that it's kind of calling you out a little that like, technically you got the prediction right last week, you know, with you saying that Lamar kind of bounces back. But, you know, as I call it, maybe a bit of a spiritual loss there. He didn't look that amazing.
- [41:29]
B
I was right on my prop because he did throw over one and a half passing touchdowns. Except the rest decided, no, that's not a touchdown. So we're going to take it off the board.
- [41:38]
A
So, yeah, I try telling that to the book and see if they honor that bet.
- [41:43]
I, you know, it's, it's funny. Like, we, we, we have like just barely missed out on like three or four extra passing touchdowns from Lamar across the last two weeks.
- [41:53]
B
Isaiah likely man, likely five touchdowns.
- [41:57]
A
Yep. Zay could have had one. You know, maybe one of those. Devonte Walker, your deep ball on the Thursday night game could have been one like there. We, we have missed out on, on like some bigger performances by Lamar. I think this is the one. I think this is the one where it's like he, he reminds everybody that like, oh no, this is like one of the elite guys. Like actually all the way back. He always struggles against the Steelers, which is why I was a little hesitant last week, even if he starts to look better. But I think I thought that was the best he'd looked outside of that. That interception, which was terrible by him. I think this was the best Lamar has looked in a month and a half. And now he gets the Bengals defense like Trey Hendricks. Trey Hendrickson is now out for the season because he had a surgery today. Like, I think, I think this is like the, the Lamar Jackson. He's also historically done very well against this defense. Like, this is the Lamar Jackson game. I have a prop of 250 combined yards rushing and, and you know, passing and three combined touchdowns rushing and passing. I think this is like a top five quarterback on the week game where it's like the real Lamar Jackson is back.
- [43:04]
Erickson, we, we could spend an hour talking about some of those calls in the Steelers game that obviously that Isaiah likely one was brutal. It's the, the, the problem for me with that wasn't that they said it was not a catch. It's that that wasn't a catch. But the tipped pass that Rogers caught that they said wasn't an interception and he got his knee down was a catch. I'm like, like likely did so much more in the process of catching the ball than Rodgers, who had like one hand on the ball as he was going to the ground and everybody was like, well, his knees on the ground and Ty goes the office. I'm like, what tie? He never had the ball. Like in no world did he ever possess the ball. It's not like the ball hit the ground and you know, the Ravens player recovered a fumble. He just came down with the ball like I was. This is. I could not believe that call when combined with the likely call. Like, if you want to say neither of them were catches, I would disagree, but I can live with that. If you want to say they were both catches, I can disagree, but I can live with that. To say Rogers actually caught the ball and you know, you know, whatever football move, whatever, the rule is for the catch rule, which I don't understand and likely didn't like, I do not understand how you could square those two together. It drove me nuts. Also this. The refs did admit that the Travis Jones penalty that gave this just handed the Steelers four points was incorrect. By the way, the Ravens could have kicked a field goal to win the game. If there were four points fewer by the Steelers. So I'm just throwing it out there. That was the, the most I, I, I can't stand Erickson complaining about the officiating because, because I think it's usually incompetence, not maliciousness and it just comes across so lame. But I could not help my, I was going to, I was going full mayor when the Eagles play the Cowboys. Conspiracy theory on Twitter I was so irate about because it was, it was these, it was like actually meaningful calls, right? It wasn't like, oh, a random pass interference here or there. It was like, like multiple game changing calls that in a close game that had the biggest implications for the postseason percentages of any game in the NFL this season. So I'm not over it yet, clearly.
- [45:18]
All right, I won't waste anybody else's time with my ranting there. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. So it's time for our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week presented by Hard Rock bet. Ericson, what is your Hard Rock best bet of the Week?
- [45:30]
B
Travis ETN is going to finish as a top eight fantasy running back against the New York Jets. The jets defense has been absolutely terrible against running backs since they got rid of Quinn and Williams. The last four running backs to face the jets, their fantasy finishes RB8, RB1, RB4, RB3 nine running backs in the last seven games have hit at least 62 rushing yards against the New York jets and seven have gone over 65 or more rushing yards. So that's the prop I'm taking with ETN. He's going to go over 64 and a half rushing yards. And ETN man, the guy has just been on absolute tear. He's been Inside the top 10 running backs six of his last seven games played, including top seven in three of his last four games. And although the Jaguars have kind of teased us a little bit in myself because I'm a big Bash Toon fan about we're going to use the tugboat. We're going to use him at the goal line. He fumbled twice last week. That's just a really bad red flag for a young player that I don't think they're going to necessarily go right back to him. I think that they're going to continue to ride Travis ETN because of how productive he has been, especially last week. 74 yards on the ground, two touchdowns, 20 carries, playing nearly 72% of the snaps. That was almost one of his season highs. After playing one of his season lows against the Tennessee Titans the week before. So I just think it's wheels up for Travis ETN and he's gonna smash this week against the New York Jets.
- [46:52]
A
You'll get no argument for me. I think this is a great call. I like that you went a little aggressive with like a top eight finish here for him rather than just RB1 because he is ranked inside the RB1 range already. I, I agree. I, I, I think it's a really strong call. I have nothing to argue against. It's a good best bet. By the way, just very quickly, Philip Rivers is signing to the Colts practice squad. That was just announced by Adam Schefter.
- [47:14]
B
3 minutes ago and he's, if I had to guess, he's probably going to be the Week 16 starter.
- [47:18]
A
Does this reset his hall of Fame clock? Because he was like, it's been five years since he played.
- [47:25]
B
Does he actually have to play in a game? How does that work exactly?
- [47:28]
A
I'm guessing he has to play in a game for it. Well, actually, I don't know. Honestly, I, I, I'm unfamiliar with those rules because it just doesn't happen very often. Yeah, Wild stuff. My my Hard Rock Best bet of the week is also about a running back. It's Trayvon Henderson. He is going to be finally kind of the prince who was promised here RB1 against the Bills. He has only been inside the top 12 twice this season. Like even as we kind of like the perception of Trayvon is that like, oh yeah, the last month like or you know, five weeks or so he's finally kind of back and you know, not back but like he's finally kind of had the breakout and getting the usage and he's been the running back we wanted. He was RB4 in week 10, RB3 and week 11. Besides that, he has not been higher than RB20 even in this stretch, let alone his his poor stretch earlier in the season. So I think finishing inside the top 12 is a good prediction here. Even though he's ranked at RB13 and you know, Bill's run defense is not good. The Patriots are coming off the bye. This is like the biggest game on their schedule the rest of the season is this get they are going to be ready. I'm hoping the fact that it's a big game doesn't mean Rabel like falls back on other running backs because he seemingly hates Henderson. But I think they're going to want to use their best weapon against the Bills here. Again, they're bad against running backs. I think he's going to get an explosive long play. I think he's going to score touchdowns. I'm betting on 100 plus scrimmage yards and a touchdown for Travion Henderson this week.
- [48:53]
I think it's good that they're ranked near each other because I like them both. ETN probably should be ranked higher. He's two spots higher, but I think, I think they're like I'm viewing them similarly this week in terms of my excitement for starting them. So those were our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week. If you're listening to this podcast, you're probably deep in the stats, injury reports and matchups. Put your fantasy football knowledge to the test on Hard Rock Bet. New customers can sign up and bet $5 on any game. If it wins, you'll find $150 in bonus bets on top of your winnings stuffed in your stocking. Now that's holiday magic. Not sure what to place your first bet on? Hard Rock Bet just launched a brand new for you page, making it easy to find all your favorite teams, players and leagues all in the Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida. It's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan. Coming soon to more states too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day, so whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in other states must be 21 plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia play Terms and conditions apply. Concern about gambling in Florida call 1-833-PLAY-WISE in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia Erickson, any final thoughts before we get out of here?
- [50:22]
B
So you think Bill's Patriots is more important than Patriots? Ravens? Becca just got flexed in a prime time. I can't believe you go there.
- [50:29]
A
It's not important. More important to me, I think it's more important to the Patriots who are trying to win this division here, that is. I'm I'm glad that game got moved to primetime, actually. I I think that's going to be an awesome game. Even though the records wouldn't suggest that if the Ravens really are coming off this big blow up offense looks back against the Bengals, I think people are going to be really excited for that game. So I I am excited for it to be Sunday night.
- [50:52]
B
Do we need to do a Worman Ericsson watch party of Pat's Ravens watch?
- [50:55]
A
Probably we'll do an emergency pod afterwards. Like just all of it. There's, there's there. I get. I'm outnumbered at this company though. There's more Patriots fans on the content team than than there are Ravens fans. So I'm I'm like Jon Snow just like holding you guys off in the battle of the Bastards.
- [51:12]
Yeah, that, that's fun. Good luck to everybody here this week. I mean especially just in the fantasy playoffs in general. But hopefully our predictions can help out with setting your lineups and making maybe some prop bets if you you want. Each week we do a quick Fantasy football live stream ahead of Thursday Night Football on The Fantasy Pros YouTube channel and a short betting live stream ahead of Monday Night Football on The Betting Pros YouTube channel. Both of them go from 8pm Eastern until kickoff. Please check them out. Subscribe to our YouTube channels and click the bell to be notified of all of our weekly live streams. For Erickson, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and Tik Tok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [52:25]
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C
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- [54:36]
A
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