FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Top 10 Fantasy Football Predictions & Prop Bets for Week 18 (Ep. 1921)

Date: December 31, 2025

Hosts: Ryan Warmley & Andrew Erickson

Episode Overview

Ryan and Andrew close out the 2025 fantasy football season with a bold and entertaining Week 18 predictions show. They share their biggest fantasy heartaches and triumphs from championship week, break down the week ahead with their top 5 prop bets and predictions, and dive into the significance of contract incentives for prop betting in Week 18. The show is a mix of catharsis, betting edges, and deep dives into key matchups—serving those still chasing action and insight even after the fantasy finals.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Post-Fantasy Championship Reflections

• Regret & Redemption Stories:
  • Both hosts share which lineup decisions cost them titles ("I had the privilege—maybe the mistake—of starting Tetramillin over Luther Burden, which cost me a chance at a championship." — Andrew, 01:15).
  • Ryan recounts his anxiety over benching Christian Watson: "[On] Saturday night, I see him have 100 yards and a touchdown... I made the wrong decision and I'm facing May. This is over..." (02:24), only to win anyway.
• Community Focus:
  • Andrew: “Let me know what cost you your fantasy championship”—citing lots of community commiseration on close calls (01:15-02:24).

Notable Quote

“It feels so good when you win. It feels devastating when you lose, especially when you had the chance to win like in your grip. I’d rather get blown out....”
— Andrew Erickson (01:45)

2. Shining a Light on Monday Night Heroes & RB Finishers

• Bijan Robinson's Monster Game:
  • Ryan, on Bijan: "Just like that game alone, might have just made him worth the number one pick from...this year...195 rushing yards and a touchdown...five catches for 34 yards and a touchdown. Shoutout to Bijan, just being the fantasy legend that he is." (04:46)
  • Bijan's finish: RB3 overall; McCaffrey and JT round out top 3 (05:57-06:48).
• Looking Ahead:
  • Ryan: “I will pick Bijan ahead of those two [McCaffrey/JT] next year.” (06:48)
  • Andrew: “McCaffrey is the circle do not draft...” citing workload and injury risk (06:52-07:25).

3. The Value of Contract Incentives in Week 18 Prop Betting

Andrew’s Perspective:

• "Week 18 is all about getting these guys paid.” (08:15, referencing contract incentives for Hunter Henry and Stefon Diggs)
• Details specific incentives and historical team behaviors to prop up their guys with contract bonuses.
• "It’s just another variable to layer into your analysis.” (11:28)
• Andrew calls it his “Patriots prop party”—targeting Hunter Henry (over 4.5 receptions) and Stefon Diggs (over 30 yards; 8 catches for another bonus) vs Miami (08:15-10:43).

Notable Quote

“The quarterback knows, like, hey, my guy wants to get paid here.”
— Andrew Erickson (08:55)

4. Top Predictions & Prop Bets for Week 18

Each expert shares their Top 5 predictions, building from #5 up to #1, typically with a corresponding player or team prop. Timestamps reference the prediction order, not always game time.

PREDICTION 5

• Andrew: Patriots Prop Party—Hunter Henry and Stefon Diggs hit incentives
  • Henry: Over 4.5 receptions (targeted for contract bonus)
  • Diggs: Over 30 receiving yards, with potential 8-catch bonus
  • Analysis: Dolphins are weak vs TEs; Patriots likely to force feed both for incentives (08:15-10:43)
• Ryan: Chiefs vs. Raiders UNDER 36 points
  • "I think this is going to be an ugly game...let's get everybody as healthy as possible to the off season..." (12:46-16:35)
  • Travis Kelce anytime touchdown as the lone offensive bright spot

PREDICTION 4

• Andrew: Bengals -7 vs Browns (Win by a TD or more)
  • “The Bengals have basically crushed the last two teams…beat Miami 45-21 last week....The Browns have just been atrocious on the road.” (17:12)
  • Chase Brown over 53 rushing yards (targeting 1,000 yards)—“I assume that they're going to make sure he gets to 1,000 yards.” (18:49)
• Ryan: Tyler Huntley starts for Ravens, but Derrick Henry leads the win over the Steelers
  • “I think Derrick Henry is getting 100 yards and a touchdown in this one...I think they're going to ride him, regardless of who's starting at QB.” (22:20)
  • Last/anytime touchdown prop for Henry suggested

PREDICTION 3

• Andrew: Seahawks upset 49ers, win the NFC West; Sam Darnold over 1.5 TDs & 150+ passing yards (contract incentives)
  • “This team is just built to play away from Seattle...I think the 49ers at home are traditionally overvalued.” (31:51)
  • Trent Williams absence for 49ers is critical; if Darnold plays well, he cashes incentives
• Ryan: 49ers hold serve, win NFC West (the opposite pick of above, for debate’s sake)
  • Over 49.5 total points in the game: “The offense just looks so easy right now, even largely without Trent Williams.” (37:07-39:15)

PREDICTION 2

• Andrew: Cardinals cover (+7.5, down from +9.5) vs Rams
  • “It’s a big spread anyway... Brissette is the king of backdoor covers...” (40:41)
  • Michael Wilson over on receiving yards as a prop (needs 93 for 1,000); “I think Michael Wilson maybe takes 25 targets, but he's going to get to 93 yards...” (40:47-43:23)
• Ryan: Cowboys dominate Giants—win by double digits
  • Dak Prescott over 1.5 passing TDs
  • “...They’re going to want to finish 500... I think the Cowboys are a better team and they’re much more likely to actually really try in this game.” (46:13)

PREDICTION 1

Both hosts target the Panthers vs Bucs NFC South showdown

• Andrew: Panthers win outright, clinch division; Tetrah McMillan over 57.5 receiving yards
  • “Carolina Panthers are going to win this game and win the NFC South... a statement game from TMac to get the Panthers to that division crown...” (49:42)
  • McMillan “approaching 1,000 yards”; uses Panthers’ strong record ATS after a loss as supporting trend
• Ryan: Under 44 points in Panthers vs Bucs
  • “Mostly unders...I think this is going to be a defensive struggle...I just can’t quite trust Bryce Young.” (52:27)

Additional Prop:

• Baker Mayfield under 1.5 passing TDs (Panthers vs Bucs) (52:27-54:53)

5. Notable Contract/Performance Incentive Tips

• Emphasis on tracking player contract bonuses in Week 18 props
• Recognize coaches/teams that routinely help players get incentives (e.g., Patriots, Bengals)

6. Spotlighted Matchups & Betting Angles

• Chiefs-Raiders as the “unwatchable” game (14:55)
• Browns at Bengals: Both expect Cincy to roll, especially with Browns’ poor road record—Bengals “want to end on a high note” (17:12-19:41)
• Seahawks-49ers: Hosts go head to head (brief debate, 37:07-39:15)
• Rams-Cardinals: Sean McVay’s history—when in doubt, believe he'll sit his starters (43:23)
• Dallas Giants: Expect Dallas to “destroy” the Giants defense (48:20-49:21)
• Panthers-Bucs: Both hosts lean Panthers; Andrew heavily targets T. McMillan's breakout for Rookie of the Year narrative.

Notable Quotes & Fun Moments

• "I will pick Bijan ahead of those two next year in drafts. I’ll tell you that right now."
  — Ryan Warmley (06:48)
• "[Week 18 is] contract incentive season worm... Prop party is what I'm calling it."
  — Andrew Erickson (08:15)
• "If the Chiefs win 7-nothing with a Travis Kelce touchdown... that's it for Raiders-Chiefs. Nothing else happened in this game."
  — Andrew Erickson (14:55)
• "It's de-Hembuh after all... Just an absolute monster in these types of formats." (On Derrick Henry)
  — Andrew Erickson (25:46)
• “Sam Darnold with the one seed on the line. We just saw this a year ago and we saw how that panned out...”
  — Ryan Warmley, on picking against Darnold (37:07)
• "Tedro McMillan, over 57.5 yards, Panthers to win... If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I'm going back to Tetrah McMillan.”
  — Andrew Erickson (49:42)
• On Emeka Egbuka’s falloff:
  — “I don’t really have anything I can compare it to, where you just come out guns blazing and then you just fall off substantially.”
  — Andrew Erickson (55:44)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:15: Biggest fantasy heartbreaks/championship week recap
• 04:46: Bijan Robinson/big Monday night performer
• 08:15: Andrew's Patriots “Prop Party” prediction—Diggs & Henry contract props
• 12:46: Chiefs vs. Raiders ugly under; Travis Kelce TD
• 17:12: Bengals crush Browns, Chase Brown 1000-yd chase
• 22:20: Derrick Henry leads Ravens past Steelers; “last TD” betting angle
• 31:51: Seahawks upset 49ers; Sam Darnold contract incentives
• 37:07: 49ers argument, debating Darnold/Purdy
• 40:41: Cardinals cover vs Rams, Michael Wilson prop
• 46:13: Cowboys rout Giants, Dak prop
• 49:42: Panthers win South & McMillan prop; under discussion
• 57:14: Hard Rock Best Bet: Panthers ML (Andrew), Dolphins +11 (Ryan)

Conclusion: Tone and Atmosphere

• Upbeat, conversational, and self-deprecating. Hosts lean into their own fantasy heartbreaks and wins, argue respectfully, and keep predictions both data-driven and lively.
• Week 18 is presented as a playground for sharp prop bets rooted in player motivations and incentives, more so than usual matchup-based analysis.

Summary Table—Predictions at a Glance

| Host | Prediction/Game | Prop Bet | Notable Rationale | |--------|-----------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------| | Andrew | Patriots “prop party” vs MIA | Henry 5+ recs, Diggs 30+ yds | Contract bonus paydays | | Ryan | Chiefs vs Raiders UNDER | Kelce anytime TD over | Both offenses limp to finish line | | Andrew | Bengals crush Browns | Chase Brown >53 rush yds | Brown needs 1k; Browns awful on road | | Ryan | Ravens ride Henry over PIT | Henry 100+ yds, TD, last-TD prop | Huntley would trigger Henry bell-cow | | Andrew | Seahawks upset SF | Darnold >1.5 TDs, 150+ yds | Darnold chasing incentives | | Ryan | 49ers hold serve, win NFC West | Over 49.5 game points | SF O firing, both D's questionable | | Andrew | Cardinals cover vs Rams | Michael Wilson over rec yds | Rams likely resting, Wilson for 1k | | Ryan | Cowboys rout Giants | Dak >1.5 pass TDs | NYG struggle, DAL plays for pride | | Andrew | Panthers win, McMillan explodes | T. McMillan >57.5 rec yds | Beating TB, division/contrib/award | | Ryan | Panthers-Bucs UNDER | Baker u1.5 pass TDs | Both O's struggling, trust no QBs |

Final Thoughts:
If you're betting Week 18, trust incentives, beware of “meaningless” motivation, and fade the Bucs. Play contract props, follow the sharp ATS trends, and always remember: sometimes the agony of a benching hurts longer than the cold analytical miss.

For full prop recommendations, contract incentive tracking, and more, check the full FantasyPros team coverage and tools.