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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Top 10 Fantasy Football Predictions & Prop Bets for Week 18 (Ep. 1921)
01:02:35
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- [00:00]
Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human Fantasy Pro's Fantasy football podcast is brought to you by Grainger. If you work as a maintenance manager, your facility is your home turf and your home field advantage is having a partner like Grainger. They offer trusted professional grade products for every industry from lighting and electrical to safety and everything in between. Plus fast dependable delivery. Which is why they always come through in the clutch. Just like you. Call 1-800-granger. Click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined on this Tuesday morning by Andrew Erickson. Erickson. We are past the fantasy championship. We did it. We made it. The season is done. We now enter into the long abyss of the fantasy football offseason. Of course we still have football going on for the next several weeks, so you and I are not going anywhere in terms of this predictions show but of course the fantasy side of things is going to look a lot different until what is it, you know, eight months from now, nine months from now, however long it is until till next draft season. How are you feeling? The day after fantasy championships were decided, was it a successful week 17 for you or not?
- [01:16]
Andrew Erickson
It was not a successful week 17 for me. I had the privilege isn't the right word. Made the mistake of starting Tetramillin over Luther Burden, which ended up costing me a chance at a championship. Went back and forth trying to figure out, you know, he was sick, down with the sickness. A bunch of players came up on the injury report on week 17 with illness. So second guessing myself in the process behind going by TMag and Luther Burden, I thought about it more. I should have been open more to Burden as an option there. But hey, you can't get every call right. And I know that a lot of people also dealt with that because I posted that on social media and just like, hey, let me know what cost you your fantasy championship. And a lot of people, you know, one way or another, 1v1, you know, torn between two players, if they'd gone the other way would have had different results. But hey, this is the game that we play. That's why we love it so much because it feels so good when you win. It feels devastating when you lose, especially when you had the chance to win like in your grip. It's like I rather would have got blown out by the other teams like there was no shot I would have been able to win. So that or not, if you get it blown out.
- [02:25]
Ryan Warmley
But you'd rather, like, you had a bunch of straightforward decisions and like, you never considered the guy that, like, I had two championships and in one of them I really agonized over starting Christian Watson or, you know, Michael Pittman live. McConkey had a few different options to fill two spots and I made the wrong decision sitting Christian Watson. So I. So on Saturday night, I see him have 100 yards and a touchdown and I'm going into Sunday, like just kicking myself. And then I. I'm going up against Drake May in that league. So early Sunday I was like, oh my God, like, I made the wrong decision and I'm facing May. This is over. But I did end up actually coming back to win that league. So. But, but if I hadn't, I was gonna be really angry. The other league, I had no clear decisions. I was a win or lose or, excuse me, I had only clear decisions. So I was a win or lose. Like, I can live with this because I never considered starting anybody on my bench. I didn't make any, you know, quote unquote, wrong decisions. So, you know, if I just get beat, then, hey, I just got beat. And sometimes it happens. That was a lot more relaxing in that league knowing that I wasn't going to be just kicking myself for months if what my. My final tough decision of the year is ended up. What costed me.
- [03:36]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I was definitely gutted the most by a Discord user. I think it was fuzzy in my discord asked me about Trayvon Henderson versus Derrick Henry. And I tell you, not make the right call there. So watching Derek Henry just go off on Saturday, I literally wanted to throw up. I. I was, I felt so sorry for the person that I gave them the wrong advice. And yeah, it sucks to lose and it's not fun, especially when you make the wrong decision. But hey, hoping to be better improve the process in the off season again. Already looking at 2026 ranks ready to go 365 days till you win your fantasy league if you didn't win this year. So looking up, ready to close the book on 2025, but looking forward to still looking at week 18, the regular season playoffs for the NFL, because I think that there's still takeaways for fantasy again. This stuff still counts, right? Even though it doesn't count in the total. Oh, what do they do in 2025 in the fantasy season, we can still use guys that break out. You know, we still have some rookie and young players that could potentially take another leap in the playoffs. For the real NFL teams and I think is worth considering when we're drafting these guys in 2026.
- [04:46]
Ryan Warmley
By the way, we don't usually or we usually dive deeper into Monday Night Football. We're going to do less of that today just because there's not, you know, we don't have this fantasy impact, at least relevant to 2025 season stuff. You know, week 18 is typically not relevant to most people. But I just want to shout out Bijan who like just came through for every fantasy manager in an insane way, you know, in that Monday night game. And just like that game alone, very well, like might have just made him worth the number one pick from, you know, if you took him there this year, it might have solidified him as the number one pick next year. I mean, yeah, I'm curious what you think about that, but, um, just what a Monday night performance to like, he won me one of my leagues, you know, and I needed a miracle from him. And that, you know, 40 point outburst was a miracle. 195 rushing yards and a touchdown. Showing off the explosiveness on the 93 yard touchdown. Something that, you know, people wanted to see going into this year more of. And then also just throwing in five yard, five catches for 34 yards and a touchdown. So shout outs to Bijan, just being the fantasy legend that he is and winning. Not just me, but I'm sure many people their leagues in that Monday night game.
- [05:58]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah. Bijan capped off the year as the RB3 overall, right behind JT and McCaffrey. It's actually interesting in standard. Jonathan Taylor actually finished as the RB one in standard formats.
- [06:12]
Ryan Warmley
Wow.
- [06:12]
Andrew Erickson
Just because of how, I mean, McCaffrey just did so much. I mean, he still has a chance to catch. I mean he still has a chance to go for a thousand receiving yards. Like he's still technically live for that if he has a big game in Week 18. So, yeah, the top three, J.T. mcCaffrey, I mean, that just goes to show how much of a lead JT scored to start the year. Like he looked like the ultimate. Like you needed JT to win your league. And of course we know what happened with the Colts. Things obviously fell off with the quarterback injuries, but he just had such a lead on how many points he was scoring to start the year that, you know, he was still a top three running back despite, you know, a lackluster finish.
- [06:49]
Ryan Warmley
I will pick Bijan ahead of those two next year in drafts. I'll tell you that right now.
- [06:53]
Andrew Erickson
McCaffrey is the circle. Do not draft because he's coming up a billion touches. Like, like, this is the exact reason why we faded Saquon this year and then TMC the year before that.
- [07:05]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah.
- [07:05]
Andrew Erickson
Like, as great as McCaffrey was this year, give the credit to him, the guy stayed healthy. He's probably gonna win comeback player of the year, number one of my do not draft list in 2026. I can tell you that right now because I don't know exactly how many touches he had, but it, it's going to be like over 500 by the time that the playoffs wrap up. Yeah, like, that's. No, thanks.
- [07:25]
Ryan Warmley
All right, let's get into our week 18 predictions show here. We don't have a record to review from week 17 because we took the holiday week off. So, you know, obviously we will continue doing that again the rest of the season and, and the playoffs. In terms of checking in on how we did the week before, I can tell you our overall records, not great. We, we both started off very strong the first week of this show and then have not been very strong the following two weeks. You were better than me last week, though. You are 6 and 9 on the season. I am 4 and 11. So I had a very. I, I went.05 in week 16, you know, which dragged. Dragged that overall record down the last week we did this. So I took the break to recuperate, lick my wounds and, and gonna come back stronger here with, with my five predictions today. Let's start off with your number five prediction here. What do you got for us?
- [08:15]
Andrew Erickson
Yes, I'm looking at my New England Patriots hosting the Miami Dolphins with a chance for the number one seed in the AFC on the line. The Patriots win and the Broncos lose to the Chargers, although the Chargers are going to be starting Trey Lance. So I don't like my chances of my Patriots getting that number one seed for that reason. But regardless, I still think they have something to play for here because it's contract incentive season worm week 18. This is what it's all about, getting these guys paid. So two guys I'm looking at and circling here, Stefan Diggs and Hunter Henry for the New England Patriots. So Hunter Henry has contract incentives at 60 receptions and 65 receptions. He's currently at 55 receptions. So I think he's going to go for at least five catches in this game. Get him a nice payday from Drake. May I believe the Patriots did this last year with Austin Hooper, where he had like three or four. He was away now they were playing for a lot less back in week 18 of that particular matchup. But still the players are aware of this. Like the quarterback knows like hey my guy wants to get paid here. So I think Hunter Henry's going to go over his reception prop which is probably going to open around three and a half. I think that you can tease it up to four and a half because I think that they're ultimately going to get hey oh, Henry needs one more catch. Like let's just get him. Let's just throw the ball behind the line of scrimmage and he'll catch it and he'll cash in his his contract incentive. So Hunter Henry's gonna go for five catches over four and a half and then Stefan Diggs. Now his receiving yard line is not going to be 30 yards but he is currently 30 yards away from a thousand yards which he hasn't had since his days with Buffalo because he got hurt last year with the Houston Texans. So he hits a thousand yards, that's an extra $500,000 in Stefan Diggs wallet. We know Diggs likes his money and if he actually catches 8 passes that's another 500k. So chances are Sivon Diggs can not only be on a bye week next week. Patriots win, Chargers loose. He, he could also be a million dollars richer with eight catches for 30 yards. So not projecting that exact stat line. Eight catches is a lot. Stig's only done that I think like one or two times this season. But 30 yards, I would like to say he's hit it every single week. That hasn't really been the case for him because the usage has been up and down. But with no Mac Hollins, Kshaan Booty still coming back from the concussion, I think you can get to at least 30 yards. So I'm assuming if you parlay these together you could probably get some pretty decent odds at the plus 100, plus 200. But yeah, those are my two prop bets this week for the Patriots prop party is what I'm calling it. And when you look at the Dolphins specifically with the matchup with Henry, second most catch slab tight ends this season, 6.5. So I think Henry Diggs going to be involved and get their money.
- [10:44]
Ryan Warmley
I am going to talk more about this game later on in the show so I will save that. I, I do just want to kind of follow up with you on the props in general and by that I specifically mean the contract incentive stuff. You leaned very heavily into that in your, you know, predictions for the week. I know it's something you have talked about in betting in week 18 in the past. I know DBRO is all over this as well. How much does that influence what you're doing? Like, as opposed to, hey, I'm just looking at the normal matchups and is this a defense that runs single high and you know, how is this player playing well and all that? Like, what percentage of that pie chart is like, hey, I'm just putting a lot of stock into the contract incentives.
- [11:28]
Andrew Erickson
I think it's just another variable to layer into your analysis. Right. Where we're talking about, okay, well what's this player's usage been? You know, what is the matchup for him? So when the planets kind of align with okay, not only is it a good matchup for Hunter Henry, like that is true because of how bad the Dolphins have been to get defending tight ends this season. There's also a nitro incentive for, well, is he going to get volume? Well, the contract incentive would suggest yes. Yeah, like the Patriots will have a reason to get Hunter Henry the ball not only because Matt Collins is out, but because he's incentivized to get the football. And I'm sure that he's going to tell Drake may, hey, by the way, because they were talking about the broadcast last week too, is Stefan Diggs when he had one of his contract incentives last week. So I just think it kind of aligns where again, not every prediction I have, I think is related to a contract incentive. But again, just another kind of variable, like I said earlier that that gives you more reason to believe that this player will perform at a certain level. And I don't imagine that the books will move Hunter Henry's prop to over four to four and a half receptions, like I said, because it's usually been around three and a half and they don't necessarily put as much stock into these. Just depending on how much action they get on certain player props, it's possible it can move and it's like plus money at over four and a half. But I would, I would presume that's going to be round three and a half like it usually is every week. And then I just feel like his odds of at least getting at least four catches are really, really high.
- [12:47]
Ryan Warmley
Let's go to my first prediction here. My prediction number five, going five to one. Chiefs and Raiders, they have the lowest total of the week and I am saying that they still go under. I want to see what it is. When I, when I put this together, it was, I believe, 36. Let me just double check, see if that's updated yeah, it is 36 even is what it is right now. Yeah, I, I think they're going under. I, I just haven't seen. I expected the Chiefs offense and this is one of my predictions from two weeks ago to still be somewhat okay without Mahomes. I, you know that was partially thinking that Garden Mitchu was going to have at least a good game that clearly changed things. That's just been really incorrect. Again, keeping in mind they've gone to their third string quarterback, not just their backup. It's been really, really bad and the Raiders of course are just an absolute like disaster of an offense. And like neither team has an incentive to try to win this game. I know it's like a you know division rivals. What like there is no incentive either team to pull out any stops. There's no incentive for either team to play hard and I know that you might think that in terms of the defense not playing hard and so maybe it leans towards the over. I just don't think these offenses are good enough. Like I just think this is a. Let's get everybody as healthy as possible to the off season and just like thinking about next year like there is no, there's no extra motivation to really try and do anything in this game. So I think that this is going to be an ugly game. I think on red zone we're like never turning over to this game. Like I think it's just going to be really, really poor performance. And having said all that my prop is a touchdown being scored though because I don't think both teams are going scoreless and it's Travis Kelsey. Cause the one player that I would you know be buying into for this week is hey this like could very well be his final game of his career. Let's you know try and send him out on a high note with a touchdown with a, with a decent game. So Kelsey Props. I like the over. I like anytime touchdown quite a bit. But this game as a whole I think is going under Erickson.
- [14:55]
Andrew Erickson
So what you're really hoping is The Chiefs win 7 nothing with a Travis Kelsey touchdown because that's.
- [15:00]
Ryan Warmley
And I'm really thinking that could happen.
- [15:02]
Andrew Erickson
Well yeah because that's how this prop hits because you're going to have to have to pan a red zone is Travis Kelce with a touchdown and that's it for Raiders Chiefs. Nothing else happened in this game.
- [15:11]
Ryan Warmley
Yes.
- [15:12]
Andrew Erickson
So yeah, I mean at least from the. I know the Raiders aren't going to score points. I know that for sure. Maybe under on their team total is Another way to play that I'm sure their team total is probably like 12 points or 13 points because it doesn't look like Geno Smith is going to play in this game. Pete Carroll was talking up Kenny Pickett and Aiden o' Connell as potentially getting action here. We know the Raiders are in the driver's seat to get the number one overall pick. So although the Chiefs don't have anything else to play for, I think that they would probably just feel better about themselves if they just win a game, you know, before the end of the season, especially with Travis Kelce, like you said, playing in his last game. So I don't mind Chiefs on the money line either. Get it's juicy, but I just don't find a path where if the Raiders are winning this game in the fourth quarter, they're going to find a way to like, okay, like, someone's got to make a play for us to lose here. Somebody fumble the ball, somebody do something stupid and let's make sure we lose.
- [16:01]
Ryan Warmley
The Chiefs have not scored more than 13 points in a game since Nov. 27. That's over a month ago. Like. Like, even if the Chiefs win this game, I just, I don't see any way this hits the over. Like, barring something that really shocks me, like, if this plays out even remotely close to how I expect, I don't think that over that total is even getting sniffed, honestly. Because if the Chiefs, let's say they have, okay, a little bit better game, they get up to 17 points, right? That'd be their best game in a month. Like, you still are going to tell me that the Raiders are going to outscore that to get them up to 36. I just don't see it. So. So the under on this is something I like.
- [16:36]
Andrew Erickson
I do know that Kareem Hunt has some juicy yards from scrimmage incentives in his contract. So if the Chiefs decide, yo, we gotta get Kareem. I mean, if Kareem Hunt gets the ball 30 times the under is definitely gonna hit in this game. Yeah, for sure.
- [16:51]
Ryan Warmley
We have a special offer for everyone. Unlock a month of Betting Pros premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today. Use promo code FP1 month. That's the number one. Not spelled out. Get access to tools like the same game parlay tool, the Prop Bet analyzer, and the prize picks Prop Bet cheat sheet. Don't miss out. Try it. Free for one month. Now available on iOS and Android. All right, what's your number four prediction here, Erickson?
- [17:12]
Andrew Erickson
So my number four prediction is the Bengals are going to beat the Browns at home by at least a touchdown, seven points. So they're going to cover the spread, which at this time, I believe on Hard Rock bet it's around minus seven. The Bengals are favorites. The Bengals have basically crushed the last two teams that they've played as heavy favorites. Beat Miami 45 to 21 last week or. And then they beat Arizona, excuse me, two weeks ago. Arizona. They beat 3714 in week 17. So I think they kind of handle their business here. The Cleveland Browns might be down their best offensive player. And Harold Fannin, he may not play in this game after re injuring his groin last week. It's a rookie quarterback making another start on the road. Traditionally this is a spot where you want to bet against that type of player. And the Browns have just been atrocious on the road. 14 of the last 15 road games they have lost. They are one in six against the spread on the road this season. The only cover they had was against the aforementioned Las Vegas Raiders, who are in the driver's seat for the number one overall pick. So this is a team that you definitely want to fade on the road at all costs. So in a divisional game, I think the Cincinnati Bengals want to end on a high note. Zach Taylor wants to put as many wins on his resume as humanly possible. You have to take every Joe Burrow game very preciously because we don't know how many games we're going to get of a healthy Joe Burrow. So I, I think the Bengals just got to continue to cook here. Again, they're not playing for anything, being out of the playoffs because of Burrows injury. But I think they want to go in a high note. Just good vibes heading into the offseason on a winning streak, which is the same thing they did last year too. They ended the season very strong on a win streak. So I think they just kind of roll over the the Browns here. So Miles Garrett will try to get to break the sack record. We'll see if he does it. I will then. My prop in this game is Chase Brown. He needs 53 rushing arts to hit a thousand for the first time in his NFL career. So third season for Chase Brown didn't hit it last year. He came really close to a thousand yards last year, but he got hurt at the end of the season, so fell just short. I think that they're going to make it in a point of emphasis this week. Like, hey, Joe Burrow has just waxed so much poetic about how much he loves Chase Brown how he's one of the best running backs in the NFL. They were talking about that all in the broadcast last week against the Arizona Cardinals and I think they're going to make sure he gets to a thousand yards. So he needs 53 rushing yards. I assume that his prop wasn't posted when we, before we recorded the show. It's been around that like 55, 56 rushing yards number. So even if it's a little bit higher, I, I think that they're going to make sure he at least gets 53 yards. So Chase Brown gonna hit a thousand yards go over his rushing prop this week against the Cleveland Browns who we know the Brown. The run defense for Cleveland has been atrocious since they lost defensive tackle Malik Collins.
- [19:42]
Ryan Warmley
I w considered Bengals to cover as my hard rock best bet of the week and then you kind of already mentioned it here prediction. So I, I went in a different direction but that, that was on my short list of games I was thinking about for that prediction. I totally agree with you. I don't really have all that much to add. Like I, I think this is absolutely a game where the Bengals are going to like obviously the Bengals aren't playing for anything, but I do think they are. They are playing for themselves. Like I think they want, I don't, I don't mean that like selfishly. I mean like they want to end the season on a three game winning streak. They want this offense to look really good. I, I think they want to be able to point to it and say look what this could have been, you know, if we had Burrow healthy the whole year. Like even with the defense we have. Like I, like you said, Zach Taylor wants to win. I'm sure like, like Joe Burrow didn't come back to not you know, go out and try to win big. Like the, I just think they are going to be more incentive. Like the Browns just had their big let's end the season on a high note moment already. They're not. They, they are I don't think are going to care so much about doing it again. Like the, the Bengals I think are going to want to continue. I mean setting aside that shutout against the Ravens, the Bengals have scored at least 32 points in all four games since Joe Burrow. That is, you know, I think they want to continue that momentum going into the offseason here against a division rival. Again like you said, it's in Cincinnati which is, is, you know the Browns defense has been much better at home this year. So this game's in Cincy, not Cleveland. I think the Bengals win by like, two touchdowns, honestly, not. Not just covering the seven points.
- [21:09]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I'm like, I don't want to say that. Worried about Miles Garrett not breaking the sack record, but I feel like if he goes in, if he doesn't get one in like the first half, like, there's going to be kind of like.
- [21:18]
Ryan Warmley
There'Ll be too much pressure on it.
- [21:19]
Andrew Erickson
I feel like they're going to be pressing a little bit, like, we got to get in the gap. We got to get in the sack. We got to get in the sack. And like, you're going to see maybe some of the other pass rushers, like, let up a little bit so that they know I got to get. Make sure Miles Garrett gets the sack. So I also think that kind of plays in the opposite of way. It worked last week where the Steelers were kind of like, maybe too focused on it. The Browns are going to be so focused on what we got to get Miles Garrett the sack that, oh, run another run play that we weren't really prepared for, especially if they decide to get Chase Brown. A thousand rushing guards, like, they can't sack the quarterback if they are running the ball effectively. So that does concern me. And to your point about the Browns kind of falling off after a big win last week, Browns own seven against the spread after a win. So basically every time they win, they usually don't live up to expectations the following week. So, I mean, I want Miles Garrett to get it. I love seeing players, elite players, break records, especially on teams that are as bad as Cleveland Browns. How Miles Garrett has been able to do this despite always being like a negative game script. To have this many sacks is just a credit to how talented of a player he is. But I mean, the Bengals offensive line is bad enough where he should be able to get it done here.
- [22:21]
Ryan Warmley
I think the sack point's a great one. I. I couldn't have said it better. So let's go to my next prediction here. Speaking of the Browns giving the Ravens hope, Tyler Huntley starts again for the Ravens, but they win anyway thanks to Derrick Henry. That is my prediction prop. I just, I think Derrick Henry's getting 100 yards and. And touchdown in this one. And I think an interesting betting angle is Henry as the last touchdown scorer, which I didn't look up what the odds that are because not all the props have like, kind of been posted yet for the week doing this this early. But you can, you can often find that prop somewhere. And I think Using him as the closer. Like, it was very clear in the game against the packers that, like, message received about not using Derek Henry against the Patriots to close out that game. Like, the Ravens were like, okay, we're. We're just going to run this hall of Fame running back into the ground. Except for, you can't do it because he is, like, legitimately built, different and just like, the most insane beast of an athlete. I can never recall playing the position, and I think they're going to do it again. I think they're going to, like, regardless of who's starting a quarterback, I think they're going to come in here and say, like, the path to success, especially against the Steelers team. This is what I wanted to see in the first Steelers matchup, is because they were coming off that loss to the Bills when the Bills ran all over them, and I was like, okay, do that with Derrick Henry. They didn't really do it and they lost that game. In. In very typical Raven Steelers fashion. I'm. I am trusting that they have learned their lesson, and I think it honestly plays their benefit if Tyler Huntley is starting. Not that it makes the Ravens better. That is, like, nonsense when people, like, say stuff like that. Like, a healthy Lamar Jackson is, you know, one of the three best quarterbacks in football. But I do think for this game in particular, I'd rather them just say, hey, our only path to success is riding Derrick Henry. Let's do it. I. As opposed to messing with, like, other styles of play here. So. And I. And I do think Tyler Huntley will start. Honestly, like, I think the back bruise was really legitimately bad for Lamar Jackson. There's also been some talk about that, which has been really annoying. But, I mean, I think he's legitimately hurt. Tyler Huntley is going to start again, and I think they're going to ride Derek Henry and it's going to go well. And I really. I didn't want to say the Ravens cover because I just get really uncomfortable with the idea of, like, Tomlin getting three points, like, in a matchup that is just always crazy and close. Like, these Raven Steelers games are always within a field goal, but I do think the Ravens win this one thanks to King Henry.
- [24:42]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, no, this game is really fascinating from a handicapping standpoint because to your point, whoever the underdog is in these Tomlin Harbaugh matchups basically usually always covers, like, every single time. It doesn't matter, like, what the spread is. So. And you didn't say it in your prediction, but if Tyler Huntley does start this game. The Ravens aren't going to be favorites. Like, you're going to see the lines flip in favor of Pittsburgh. But to your point, just, just really.
- [25:09]
Ryan Warmley
Quickly, what do you think the line will be?
- [25:11]
Andrew Erickson
Because I, I expected it'll be like minus three.
- [25:14]
Ryan Warmley
I went into this game like before the line posted. I was texting one of my really good friends who you know is an avid better about it, and I was like, like, what do you think this line is going to be? And I thought the Ravens were maybe going to be like favorite, like, like plus, like minus one or something. Basically a pick even with Huntley. But I expected it to be Huntley. So then when it was minus three, I was like, oh, I guess they're assuming Lamar starting. I, I have been kind of assuming that Lamar wouldn't. I thought it would be Huntley again, but maybe I end up being wrong about that. I know there's some. It's certainly still questionable at this point in the week.
- [25:46]
Andrew Erickson
Well, I think from a betting perspective, you probably want Huntley because that means you get the points with the Ravens because the lines will flip in favor of the Pittsburgh Steelers. And then to your second point that you made, that means they're going to feed Derek Henry. It was really easy of an excuse to feed Derek Henry last week. Well, our starting quarterback's not playing, so of course we have to feed Derrick Henry. Whereas if Lamar is playing, maybe you feel less forced into using Derek Henry again. Harbaugh can say whatever he wants. We all know that you got to feed Derek Henry's many times. It's dehember after all. So he has an. He's just an absolute monster in these types of formats. But I don't think it's by coincidence that Derrick Henry has a was it career high in terms of carries in week 17 when it was a backup quarterback starting the game for the Ravens. So I think that if you are looking to back the Ravens, you wait till the last second, maybe Huntley gets announced in again. Like, do I feel like their odds of winning are higher with Huntley? Not like necessarily. But you feel better about betting on the Ravens, I think especially when you're getting some points with it if Huntley does start. So I think that's a really good prediction to make with the caveat, if Huntley plays, Derek Henry's gonna smash. And I think too, if you want to sprinkle on some more touchdown. This is something that Joe does on the betting pro show all the time. Is Derrick Henry first half touchdown where if he's gonna score anyways, probably the first half, and then you can get it at much better odds when you know he's going to probably find the end zone anyway in the first half.
- [27:08]
Ryan Warmley
The other thing I want to mention on this game too is just like, no DK Metcalf again. And that like clearly was Darnell Washington's out too. Yes, no DK Metcalf. Like, that is good DK Metcalf. The Ravens really struggled to guard in that, in that first matchup. And like the reason the Ravens lost that game ultimately was like Aaron Rodgers looked really good throwing the ball deep. It started like the very first play of the game was like a 50 yard pass to DK Metcalf. Without Metcalf on the field. I, I do think the Ravens defense will, will play really well in this one. I think it'll be a low scoring game just because the Ravens are going to run so much and, you know, burn the clock. And the Steelers, I think, will struggle to move the ball without DK Metcalf. I think that was like, like watching the Browns Steelers game. I don't feel like it got mentioned as much that, hey, they're missing DK Metcalf. It was just like, you know, what's going on? Why aren't they running the ball? Browns, you know, should. We're having the touchdown pass early. Like I was, I kept saying that. I was like, they don't have dk. Like that really matters for the state of this offense. Who are they going to throw to?
- [28:07]
Andrew Erickson
There's too much Marquez Valdez scaling. Like, it's just like that's when. That's what you're working with. The guy whose hands and head just do not meet at the same place. Man. Yeah, astute. Points across the board. Where I mean, you clearly know this Ravens team, so great analysis by you.
- [28:26]
Ryan Warmley
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- [29:59]
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- [30:54]
Ryan Warmley
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- [31:52]
Andrew Erickson
Going to the Saturday slate Fun two game slate for the NFC teams I'm going to Seattle, San Francisco. I think the Seattle is going to win this game and win the NFC west and claim the spot as the number one seed in the nfc. So when you look at Seattle and what they've done historically, I love them on the road here against San Francisco. Seattle, with Mike McDonald as the head coach, they have been just absolute road Warriors. They've won 13 of their last 14 road games, 13 and two straight up on the road since the start of last season. So this team is just built to play away from Seattle and it's really surprising because they can't really run the football, although it has come alive in the last couple of weeks between Ken Walker having a big game two games ago, Sack Charbonnet having a really big game in week 17. So I, I think that Seattle, yes, Sam Darnold seems like he's always one play away from like totally imploding with turnovers and Brock Purdy looks like the hottest quarterback coming into week 18. But I just kind of like chasing the trends here with Seattle in a tight spread. The 49ers, if you look at them at home, they're traditionally a lot of times overvalued at home. So.07 against the spread in their last seven home games facing NFC west competition. So in the division they have not really rose to the occasion of winning and covering the spread at home. They've also failed to cover the spread in 16 of the last 23 home games, four and five against spread their last nine home games one in three as home underdogs since 2022. So I think that Santa Clara doesn't really have the same type of emphasis. Oh, they're playing at Mile High or playing in Chicago, playing in Cleveland it's not the same thing. It's playing in Santa Clara. Right. It's not a big scary place to play. So I think that given this Trent Williams injury for the 49ers, which I think is massive. We all saw the graphic on Sunday Night Football. I actually screenshot it because I really wanted to share it again with Trent Williams on the field, 49ers, 60 and 32. Without him, 4 and 12. I guess you could update to 5 and 12 because they did beat the Bears without Trent Williams, basically for the entire game. But they average almost five points less per game. They average over 40 or fewer than 40 rushing yards per game less without Trent Williams on the field. Now, they seem fine offensively against the Bears. Seattle Seahawks are not the Bears defense. It is significantly tougher matchup to draw than Chicago the Bears defense. So I like Seattle here and my prop that I'm tying in here with a Seattle victory is Sam Donald's gonna rise the occasion here and throw for over one and a half passing touchdowns going back to the contract incentives. Yeah. Now this is one where to your original question worm about, okay, how much are the Seahawks can away Sam Donald's contract inc. Incentives? Probably not at all in this game. Right. But to. To make my point, he's three passing touchdowns away and 150 yards away from an extra million dollars in contract incentives. So again, low bar to pass 150 passing yards. That's not a giant number for him to hit. Is he gonna get three passing touchdowns? Maybe not. But can he get over one and a half with Jack Smith and Jigba against a 49ers secondary that just got shredded by Caleb Williams, Luther Burden, Colson Loveland, I think that he can throw for two touchdowns here. So I think Sam Darnold, even though they don't set out to have him hit all of his contract incentives, I think in a Seahawks victory, he ends up getting to over one half passing touchdowns, 150 passing yards, and then the two other incentives he has, or he has to hit a 100 passer rating and completion rate of 67.5%, which he's like right there. I think he's right now like 67.2% completion percentage and his pass rating is like 99.7 or something along those lines. So he's like right on the cusp of hitting all those benchmarks. So if he plays well, the Seahawks win, he gets like an extra $2 million. So week 18, Saturday night, it's gonna be a great night for Sam Donald.
- [35:34]
Ryan Warmley
& Co. First of all, I just have to say like I was laughing all day on Sunday. I saw people saying like, well what, what's the Sunday night game gonna be in week 18? This is after the Browns had won. They were like, you know, is it going to be Bucs Panthers? Is it going to be like, you know, the fight for the one seed in the NFC West? I was like, I would bet any amount of money it was going to be Raven Steelers. This is like NBC's absolute dream is to have Raven Steelers for the division winner win and in loser eliminated from the playoff contention. Like, like that was always going to be Sunday night and then the other two games that were like super relevant in this way were going to be Saturday. So like I said, the schedule surprised me 0%. I couldn't believe anybody who thought.
- [36:17]
Andrew Erickson
There was definitely no conversation of wait, should we put Panthers bucks on the Saturday night prime time or the Sunday night? They can be 430 window usually for the Texans, but we'll give it to the Carolina Panthers in.
- [36:30]
Ryan Warmley
Bucks. Yeah, absolutely. Especially because now that the Falcons won, I forget what it is. Isn't it like if they win again then it doesn't actually matter? Like the Panthers can still lose and win the division. So like the, they, they wouldn't want to put it on Sunday because then they could know that that game actually doesn't end up matter if it matters going into Saturday and. But then we'll see on Sunday, you know, maybe.
- [36:56]
Andrew Erickson
So. Yeah, I don't, I don't think anything would like capture the way this buck season has gone than for them to beat the Panthers and then have the Falcons beat the Saints and then the Panthers backdoor their way into the.
- [37:08]
Ryan Warmley
Division. It would be hilarious, honestly. So Sam Darnold, if you look going Back to week 10, these are his QB finishes in fantasy. QB. 26, 25, 11, 34, 28, 8, 29. It has been really like alternating back and forth. Now if that pattern continues, he should have a good week this week. But the point is he has not been playing very good football here in the second half of the season. And for that reason, really mainly that reason, I'm actually going the opposite way on this prediction. I think a lot, everything that you said makes a whole lot of sense and yet I'm looking at this and I'm like, Sam Darnold with the one seed on the line. We just saw this a year ago and we saw how that panned out. And I know it's different teams and a different situation, but I Just can't shake week 18 of last year out of my mind. So I'm taking 49ers to hold serve at home lock in the NFC one seed with the win over the Seahawks as my prediction. So basically just the absolute opposite of yours. For my prop, though, rather than bet against Sam Darnold, I am taking the over on this game. I do. And I think when the Seahawks score, it'll be driven by their running game or by, I mean, like you said we saw with this. Really, really. This is a, a prediction not based on the Seahawks. It's based on the 49ers. Like, the offense, I just think is like full Death Star. Like, they just look, I know, no, Trent Williams really changes things. But, like, I just, it looks so easy in this game on Sunday night and they're just playing so well. And like you said, that was largely without Trent Williams. And the defense looks so bad. So, like, I love the over on this game, even up at 49 and a half. And, and I think the 49ers, you know, hold on to win it for whatever it's worth, which, which I don't think is much. The Niners won the first game that was in week one. Like, who really cares about that? They did win. You know, just, just to point that out. But, but yeah, I, I, I think the Niners win this game. I think it's close and high scoring and a really great game, and I think the Niners pull it out in the.
- [39:15]
Andrew Erickson
End. Yeah. To your point about week one, I think that these rosters are totally different than they.
- [39:22]
Ryan Warmley
Were. I'm just mentioning it to mention it. Don't put stock in that.
- [39:26]
Andrew Erickson
Really. Yeah. I mean, the 49ers defense was good at that point in the season because they had all their main guys like Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and we didn't know what Sam Darnold was going to be in this offense. So again, I have to get the good Sam Darnold for the Seahawks to win because I, I'm not going to push back on who's a better quarterback. It's, it's obviously Brock Purdy, especially the way that he's been playing. So if the 49ers win, it's because Brock Brady continues to be on a hot streak and Sam Darnold calls back into a.
- [39:52]
Ryan Warmley
Pumpkin. If you want a chance to win a Bijan Robinson and Drake London signed mini helmet for free, courtesy of our friends@pristine auction.com all you need to do is head to fantasypros.com contest complete the form and either download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review for the podcast, or follow us on x Instagram or TikTok at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive. We will be announcing a winner right here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube, you can be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. Number two Prediction here Erickson, what do you.
- [40:26]
Andrew Erickson
Have? The Arizona Cardinals are going to cover the, I believe, nine and a half point spread against the Los Angeles Rams. I haven't seen what the number has been updated to, so I made this prediction with you. I thought that the Rams would beat the Falcons on Monday Night.
- [40:41]
Ryan Warmley
Football. I can tell you what it's updated to. Just so you know, it's down to seven and a half. Yeah, that's on Hard Rock.
- [40:47]
Andrew Erickson
Bet. I'm not surprised by the line movement there because the Rams have potentially nothing to play for in this game. Now, Sean McVeigh said after the loss to Atlanta that no, we're playing our guys. I don't know, I not to say that I think that he's lying, but we've seen him do this in the past where he doesn't care about week 18 if there's nothing on the line besides, you know, getting a buy or something like that, where there's a chance. If the 49ers lose on Saturday, then they don't even control their path to the number five seed. So the five seed's important because the winner or the five seed would go to either Carolina or Tampa Bay, which is obviously like the matchup you want to draw as a wild card team versus going to Philadelphia or Chicago. So. But because that game plays on Saturday, the Rams will know, oh, can we actually even change our seatings? And again, it's not even in their full control. So Sean McVeigh has always traditionally valued health over everything else. Like that's the most important thing to him. I understand from his perspective, maybe this year is different because hey, we lost back to back games. We don't want to go into the postseason kind of flat. So I get it from that perspective, maybe he will play his guys, but you know, will they go all out? What if staffer gets banged up a little bit? Are they going to keep him in the game when they know it's a meaningless week 18 performance? I don't know. So I'm just a little bit suspect of that, which is why I just like the Cardinals with the points. It's a lot. It's a big spread anyway. We know that Jacobe Brissette is basically the king of backdoor covers because of how often they throw the football. So I think they cover against the Rams team. That's maybe not going 110%. And if they cover, that means we're going to see Michael Wilson heavily involved as he always is. Marvin Harrison Jr. Got injured again, TBD on his status. I don't know why they keep trotting him out here when he's not like back to health. Like, what's the point of playing him and trying to justify the pick of Marvin Harrison Jr. As a top five option. Michael Wilson has been better than him when he's been on the field. So I think Michael Wilson just continue to eat like he's been doing every single game where Marvin Harrison Jr. Has been injured. He needs 93 yards to get to a thousand for the first time in his NFL career. So I think that Michael Wilson maybe takes 25 targets, but he's going to get to 93 yards because I think that's the one thing they're going to emphasize this week. Hey, let's get Mike to a thousand receiving yards because why not, right? Like, what else are we playing for here Besides making Trey McBride's records even that much more untouchable in terms of his tight end reception? So that's going to be my prop for the week is Michael Wilson. So whatever is receiving yards prop, take the over on it. Because it's not going to be 93, but I think he's going to go close to 100 receiving yards to make sure he gets to a.
- [43:24]
Ryan Warmley
Thousand. I. I don't know what Sean McVeigh is going to do. I think it would be such a mistake for him to play Stafford and Puka, like assuming. Assuming they can't change their seat if this game is meaningless. I just don't. I don't get. I agree with Sean McVeigh in valuing health over everything. And he has been really aggressive in resting guys in the past, like to the point where it has really kind of reshaped how teams consider rest early in the season and things like that. Like. Like he has been at the forefront of not playing guys. Stafford was in the weird ammortal back chamber thing, whatever it was called.
- [44:01]
Andrew Erickson
Back. The whole back thing.
- [44:02]
Ryan Warmley
Right? Yes. In August, like this is the entire off.
- [44:07]
Andrew Erickson
Season. We were like, oh, is he gonna, Is this back gonna seize.
- [44:10]
Ryan Warmley
Up? Yes. Like week one, Puka leaves every game seemingly with some rib injury and then guts it out. I'm like, like, those two. Anybody else? Like, yeah, let's keep everybody fresh, you know, whatever. Those two, I just don't think should play. And if they don't, like, of course this line is like, really, really appealing. And, and yeah, like, I, I know what he has said so far. I'll believe it when I see it in terms of him playing guys in a, in a meaningless game for seeding. So, I mean, even last year they didn't care about getting the five seed when that was much better. Like this exact scenario of, hey, the four seed is way worse than the three seed. They did not play their guys and try to win that game. So I'm like, like, even if that is the scenario this year and this game does kind of matter for seeding, like, I don't, I don't. Maybe they, they're going to approach it differently than last year. I don't know. But I just would be really surprised. And like I said, I'll believe it when I see it. So. I like this pick a lot from.
- [45:06]
Andrew Erickson
You. Yeah. And to be clear, just, I want to make sure that I have the right scenario. So the Rams have to beat the Cardinals, Seahawks have to beat the 49ers. So if the 49ers win over the Seahawks, that locks the Rams into the number six seed, regardless. So that's kind of what's taking place here when it comes to the implications of that Saturday game. And yeah, so also too, the, the Rams already lost to the Panthers in Carolina. So it's, it's one of those things where it's like, be careful what you wish for. Right. I never like getting into. I think coaches don't ever want to answer that question like, oh, who do you want to play? Like, yeah, because I think it's kind of asking for the, not the kiss of death or something like that. But look, they're gonna have to play on the road. They're wild card team. They're gonna have to play on the road anyway. And like I laid out earlier, they've been a really good, or, excuse me, the Rams have been like the Seahawks, actually one of the better road teams against the spread. So I think they're going to be fine. They're going to probably have to go to Philly or Chicago at some point anyway. So I think that it really doesn't matter to your point. He can say whatever he wants. We'll see it. I'll see what I believe it or believe when I see.
- [46:13]
Ryan Warmley
It. Yeah, yeah, that's. That's exactly how I feel. Let's go to my next prediction here. I've got. Cowboys don't just cover five and a half points in New York, but they actually will beat the Giants by double digits. My prop on this one is Dak Prescott, you know, one and a half passing touchdowns on the over. If you look at, I mean, this is another one where the last time these two teams played was like a very long time ago. It was that crazy 40 to 37 game back in week two. Obviously the teams look very different there. I'm just mentioning it to mention it, but really, like, I think the Cowboys are going. And by the way, I'm still traveling. This is the last day of my, like, holiday trip, so I haven't seen every quote from every coach. If they have come out and said that there's any reason they're not going to kind of give this their all, then please correct me here, Erickson, but I am going into this thinking that the Cowboys are going to say, hey, this is the first year with a new head coach. We had a really fun offense for large stretches of the season. We overcame some injuries, you know, but this was largely like, I think a decent first year with a new head coach. They're going to want to finish 500, right? They have that tie so they can finish 500. I think they are going to say, we would much rather be 8, 8 and 1 than 7, 9 and 1. And they are going to actually try in this thing. The Giants, on the other hand, we know that they just tried against the Raiders when they probably shouldn't have. But I wonder if they come in and say, like, okay, like, we had our fun. We won that game. Like, do not run Jackson dart. Like, there is no reason for him to take another concussion in this game. There's no reason for us to push it in this game. I believe they still do have a chance. If the Raiders win, the Giants could still get the first pick. It is possible. So I wonder if ownership comes in and kind of like puts their thumb on the scale a bit there. But the ultimate side of this is I think the Cowboys are a better team and I think the Cowboys are much more likely to actually really try in this game because I, I do think there is going to be some level of pride in, in year one of this regime getting, getting to just at least 500 and, and being able to say, you kind of started off on such a nice foot for this, for this tenure. So I think the Cowboys win and I think they win.
- [48:21]
Andrew Erickson
Big. Yeah, this is going to be week 18 Malik Davis chalk week for the most part because it doesn't seem like Javante Williams will probably play in this game because he's dealing with like neck shoulder injuries. He's already hit every contract incentive he has. He's going to be a free agent. Probably wants to resign with the Cowboys. So I don't think we're going to see Javante go here. But everyone else, if they're healthy, they should be full go. So I think the Dallas Cowboys role here as well, Schottenheimer's talked about how they really want to finish strong in the division. I think that if they win against the giants that go five and one in the division. So to your point, getting to that.500 record, it's his first year as the head coach so I think they want to go on a high note and you can destroy this Giants defense again. We talked about this through the trade show, but who's most likely to be ready for Cancun is the Giants in the second half of this game. Like those defensive players are not going to want to tackle this Malik Davis guy who hasn't really been a starter or really played that much. He's pretty fresh and he's going to be running wild. So over on Malik Davis props this week as well if you want to layer in some SGP action with that Dak Prescott prop that you.
- [49:21]
Ryan Warmley
Have. Let's go to our number one predictions here. Erickson we we are both on the same game here. I wanted to make sure that I picked predictions for the three games that are most relevant in this week no matter what and then just find two elsewhere. So we've both got this Panthers Bucks game here. As as our final predictions. What are you expecting in this.
- [49:42]
Andrew Erickson
Game? Carolina Panthers are going to win this game and win the NFC South. This is something that I'm heavily invested in throughout the off season. I like Carolina Panthers to win the division and I also bet on TetraMillion or Tetra McMillan to win offensive Rookie of the Year, which he is currently the favorite. Not by much. Tyler Schuck is definitely breathing down his neck to kind of take that award from him, but I think a statement game from T Mac to get the Carolina Panthers to that division crown I think will cement him as the Offensive Rookie of the year. So my prop here to go along with the Carolina Panthers winning outright and winning the NFC south is T Max can go over 57 and a half receiving yards. Obviously major disappointment. Talked about the start of the show. He's the reason why I didn't win my fantasy championship. McMillan. I don't know if it was the sickness or what the deal was. Dave Canales actually came out after the game and said that it really wasn't due to his sickness, that was due to his lack of production. I mean, the fact of the matter was Bryce young threw for 54 yards. So you're never going to see a lot of receiver production when your quarterback only throws for a little bit over 50 yards. And he did give credit to the opposing defense saying that they schematically were taking away T Mac. That's not the case here against the Buccaneers. We know that the easiest thing to do on them is to throw, throw, throw. We saw it two weeks ago when tmac had a big game and he was actually. One of the predictions I got right in week 16 was that T. Mac was going to have a bounce back performance. So if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Where I'm going back to Tetrah McMillan to have a big game here. Help the Carolina Panthers win the division. And the thing with the Carolina Panthers, I've cracked the code with them when it comes to betting on them. So they are 70 straight up after a loss. So basically every single time they lose, you bet on them the next week. And they cover the spread every single time. And that's why last week I was so heavy on Seattle to cover their touchdown despite being on the road because, well, the Panthers were coming off a win against Tampa Bay. So I don't understand why Buccaneers are favored, to be honest. I get they're at home, but Buccaneers have lost seven of the last eight games. This team is just circling the wagon. BAKER Mayfield's not 100. He's been injured since basically second half of the season or the start of the second half of the season. And I just think that this continues to spiral for them. So give me the Panthers on the money line. Panthers plus three don't care. Fade the Buccaneers and T Max can have a big game. He already went over this number two in the first matchup against Tampa Bay. And the other thing too, the Buccaneers only good defensive player in their secondary, Jamal Dean. I shouldn't say only good player. Anton Winfield's pretty good too. But Jamal Dean, their corner, he got hurt last week dealing with a shoulder injury that apparently he's been playing through all season. If he doesn't suit up, it's the aerial show with Bryce Young and.
- [52:27]
Ryan Warmley
TMac. I like your Prediction of the Panthers winning more than. I like your prediction of a big Tel McMillan game. I would love to see a Tel McMillan, you know, big game. I. I am a big fan of his, but I think this is going to be a defensive struggle, so I'm not picking a winner in this one. I'm saying that I think mostly unders are going to be hitting across the board in this game in terms of props, in terms of, you know, the game itself. The last time these two teams played, which obviously was. Was more. Much more recent than some of these other rematches we've talked about, it was 23 to 20. So a 43 total. That's right around what the total is in this. It's 44 on hard rock Bet. I do think it goes under. Part of that is just because, like, I can't bring myself to really, like, fully trust Bryce Young, even though he's obviously better than he was, you know, when he first came into the league. I just. I just can't quite get. I mean, he's coming off of this game where he just, you know, like you said, through for, like, 50 yards. The last time these two teams faced each other, both quarterbacks threw for under 200 yards. The Panthers running game, not surprisingly, could not get going against this Bucks defense. And I kind of see it playing out similarly now. Tedro McMillan did do well there, but I think for the most part, we're going to see lots of unders in this one, and it'll be generally, like, lower scoring. I do agree that the Panthers will win, though. The Bucks just, like, I mean, in. In September and October. Baker Mayfield was like, everybody's favorite dark horse MVP in the first part of the year. Emeke Buka was this, like, breakout rookie. And it is just like, it's been a long time of this struggle. Like, this is not just, like, a slump that's lasted, like, a few weeks. We're now, like, well into a season of a really poor year by Igbuka from, like, week six on and a really poor year from Baker Mayfield from, like, week six on. And I really. I am going to be. We're doing that. The key questions show this week with me, Dbro and Fitz. What we do for week 18 every year is rather than key questions for those week's matchups, we do key questions for the offseason for a lot of these players and teams, and I'm going to be asking them about Ibuka, really, and the Bucs offense in general and kind of what we want to do with Them going into next year. Because I find that be really fascinating because it's been such a prolonged slump so far here really to end the season. I expect that to continue in this one. I also expect the Panthers offense to struggle. The prop I have is Baker, under one and a half passing touchdowns, but really I think there's going to be a lot of unders hitting across the.
- [54:54]
Andrew Erickson
Board. Yeah, the thing with McMillan too is he's actually approaching a thousand yards. Both him and Egbuca technically could hit a thousand receiving yards in this game. I believe Igbuka is 90 yards.
- [55:06]
Ryan Warmley
Away.
- [55:07]
Andrew Erickson
Okay. Whereas TMac is 71. So he hit this number the first matchup. So I think that McMillan does ultimately get to a thousand receiving yards. Whereas Ibuka last week, Jalen McMillan, the other McMillan on this team, on the Buccaneers, was just like hyper targeted. Just so bizarre. The fall off from Magbuka. Right. And does that stem back from his hamstring injury? Remember he got hurt in that Lions game and then.
- [55:32]
Ryan Warmley
He. And he didn't really have time off to rest.
- [55:34]
Andrew Erickson
It. Right. He just, he played the. Immediately the next week, even though the Buccaneers I think had a bye week like the week after that. And we assumed he would come.
- [55:41]
Ryan Warmley
Back healthy after that was the game that everybody assumed he was not going to play. And then he got like 12.
- [55:44]
Andrew Erickson
Targets. Yes. And he sucked and he was not good with those 12 targets. So a very, just rookie year that I don't really have anything I can compare it to, where you just come out guns blazing and then you just fall off substantially where you. Yeah.
- [55:59]
Ryan Warmley
Exactly. Cut you off. But like in the reverse order, he'd be like a top, you know, 50 pick going into next season. Everybody. But like the. Because it happened in this, you know, sequence is.
- [56:09]
Andrew Erickson
Baffling. Yeah. It's not usually the path that most rookies. It's. You start slow and then you caught fire at the end of the year. Like Luther Burden. Right. He is like the quintessential. Oh, this is a classic rookie wide receiver breakout. And like season one arc where you start out, Laminizakias is running all the routes. We're like, this guy's not good. We need to get the loot. We need to get the talent rookie on the field. What happens, he goes on the field and he's a baller. So yeah, very unusual season. So I think. Yeah, I'm interested to see what Debro and Fitz have to say about Emeka Abu because clearly there is talent because we saw him play at a very high level to start the year it fell off. But how much is that related to the injuries to Baker and Egg Buka? So, yeah, man, this should be a fun game to watch. Hopefully. Hopefully we get at least some scoring. I know that you like the under in this game, but as long as McMillan can do his job, get it to a thousand receiving yards and get the Panthers to W, that's all I care.
- [57:03]
Ryan Warmley
About. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. So it's time for our Hard Rock Best bets of the week, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Erickson, what is your Hard Rock best bet of the.
- [57:14]
Andrew Erickson
Week? Tell me to bury the lead, but it's the Carolina Panthers to win outright against the Buccaneers. I wasn't even giving them credit enough. Where seven zero against the spread after a loss. Actually, it's nine. So they've covered the spread following nine games that they have lost. They've covered the spread 12 straight games as underdogs following a loss. Winners of six straight as underdogs following a loss, including the first matchup against the Tampa Buccaneers, where they were coming off a Week 15 loss. And we look at the Buccaneers, they have failed to cover the spread eight of their last nine home games and they failed to cover the spread in eight straight games. So there's no team that has failed to hit expectations more than the Buccaneers. And the fact that they're favored at home just because they're the home team and it's the Panthers is the reason why I just feel very confident that you got to continue to fade.
- [58:03]
Ryan Warmley
Them. I will be going, by the way, plus 120 on the money line with Hard Rock Bet is the Panthers for your bet. I am going with the Dolphins not to win the game, but to cover 11.
- [58:15]
Andrew Erickson
Points. Very, very clear here. You can't win the.
- [58:17]
Ryan Warmley
Game. Correct. But 11, I think is too big a number. I think the Dolphins have like, actually, I expected them to roll over and die. The vibes were so bad in September at the start of the season for these. This team and I have been impressed with the level to which they have, you know, tried. They're not a good team. Right. Like there's, there's a limit to how far that can take them. But since that really weird loss on Thursday night to the Ravens at the end of October, there's a day before Halloween, their offense, you know, 30 points against the Bills. They beat the Commanders when the Commanders were still a little bit healthier. Not, you know, the parents were bad, but a little bit than where they are now, yeah, they beat the Saints, who have played well, you know, since Tyler Schuck took over. They destroyed the Jets. You know, they ended up losing to the Steelers and Bengals, but the offense wasn't terrible in those games. And then they just beat the Bucks. So, like, I think the Patriots defense is not very good. Like, it hasn't burned them yet, but it will at some point. Again, they're not going to lose this game, but I do think the Dolphins can keep it closer. 11 is a really big number for a divisional matchup. And I know if this was. If this game is in Miami, I feel even better about it. Of course, given Patriots history there, it's in New England. It's going to be really cold. That does scare me when I make this prediction. But two is not the quarterback, right? Like the cold weather, maybe that was. I mean, I. You. You. We have this image of it being a Dolphins thing, but Tua was a really big part of that. So not that yours is some great quarterback, but I wonder if the cold maybe impacts him a little bit, a little bit less than it would have to. And again, I just think this ends up being a closer game. I think. I think whoever the running back is for the Dolphins can run on the Patriots. And I think Mike McDaniel wants to end the season strong, too, and I think the players want to end the season strong for him. That's the vibe I've been getting here in the last month or so. So, again, the Patriots are going to win this game, but I do like the Dolphins to cover a very big number in 11.
- [60:04]
Andrew Erickson
Points. Yeah, I.
- [60:06]
Ryan Warmley
Thought. And by the way, quickly, I will say it's 11 on hard rock bet it is higher elsewhere. So if that ends up. That could end up going even higher and becoming like a + 11/2 or + 12 if it follows suit with where it is and some of the other books. We like Hard Rock Bet, of course, it's our favorite place to bet, but it just is a sign that maybe it could end up moving as well. So I like it here, but I like it even more if it gets even higher than plus.
- [60:27]
Andrew Erickson
11. Yeah, I didn't have the cajones to pick a side here with the Dolphins and Patriots because I want my Patriots to win, of course. But man, I thought that the points spread was a lot for the jets last week, and clearly it wasn't enough points. Now, Dolphins have been much better than the Jets. The Dolphins have also beaten the jets this year, so they're not as a much as a bottom Drilling team Quinn yours not exactly the cold weather quarterback you'd envision. Again, played at Texas. Not exactly this. Oh, I'm like built for cold weather. So that maybe is one kind of concern with him making this start. And is Jalen waddle gonna play in this game? Like, that's the other thing too where I'm like, I get a little nervous about. Okay, he's like so theoes or whatever his name is is the number one Darren Waller, Greg Dulcich? Is this like what we're trotting out here for you to be right here? It's. It's hn right. If he has that monster game, which he can definitely do because the Patriots run defense I've talked about every single ranking show. Buns has just been absolute buns since they lost Milton Williams. Robert Spain is not healthy. They lost another defensive tackle who has been playing. So unless these guys suit up for week 18, which I think that the Patriots are probably going to err on the side of caution because their odds of winning the number one seed are a long shot anyway, I think that those guys probably aren't going to end up playing. And we look at A Chan so 33 rushing yards away from the second highest rushing yard season in Dolphins history. He has 90 scrimmage yards in 11 consecutive games. That's the active long, the longest active streak in the NFL. His 10 games with 100 scrimming yards or more are tied second most by any player in Dolphins franchise history. Trailing what running back were. Which Dolphins running back has the record for most 100 yard scrimmage.
- [62:18]
Ryan Warmley
Games? I don't.
- [62:21]
Andrew Erickson
Know. He also holds the record for the single highest rushing art season in Dolphins.
- [62:25]
Ryan Warmley
History. Who. Who is that? I I. Whenever you put me on the spot like this, I'm always like, I feel like I should know this. And then I just. My brain totally.
- [62:33]
Andrew Erickson
Freezes. Comments? Please throw it in the comments. Pause it right now. Throw it in the comments. 3. So you want to know it. You ready? You give up, you plead the.
- [62:41]
Ryan Warmley
Fifth. I want to throw out a guess, but I feel like I'm gonna sound like an idiot if I throw out a guess. Dude, just come.
- [62:46]
Andrew Erickson
On. Give it a shot. Ronnie Brown. Okay, good guess. Good guess. It's not correct. It's Ricky Williams. It's.
- [62:53]
Ryan Warmley
Ricky. Okay, Those are the two I was actually thinking of in my head. And I went with Ronnie Brown. At least I should have gone with the other.
- [62:59]
Andrew Erickson
One. But I mean, you could have said.
- [63:00]
Ryan Warmley
Jai. I did not think it was him. Okay, Those are our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet, the official sportsbook partner of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Just because your fantasy season is over doesn't mean the fun has to stop. If you're listening to this podcast, you're probably deep in the stats, injury reports and matchups on Hard Rock Bet. You can put your ball knowledge to the test, build a same game parlay on Hard Rock bat and turn game day into payday. And if you missed kickoff, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet has live in game betting so you're never too late in on the action. Find a winner or grab that player prop you meant to play and live bet between snaps in just a few easy taps. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but an extra $150 in bonus bets. Plus, Hard Rock bet offers new promos every single day, so whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make.
- [64:02]
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- [64:32]
Ryan Warmley
Erickson. We will get out of here on that. This show will continue into the playoffs. We'll be doing predictions for every single game all playoffs long, so be sure to continue checking us out here. Even though the fantasy season is over. We'll see if we can get our records looking a little bit better here after this week and beyond. For Erickson, I'm Ron Warmley. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Hopefully you are listening to this celebrating a fantasy championship. If not, maybe we can have some fun winning some bets here in week 18. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com.
- [65:18]
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Ryan Warmley
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- [66:45]
Andrew Erickson
Location. Okay, only 10 more presents to wrap. You're almost at the finish.
- [66:51]
Ryan Warmley
Line. But.
- [66:53]
Andrew Erickson
First, There the last one. Enjoy a Coca Cola for a pause that.
- [67:13]
Ryan Warmley
Refreshes. This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of.
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Andrew Erickson
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Ryan Warmley
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Andrew Erickson
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Ryan Warmley
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Andrew Erickson
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Ryan Warmley
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Andrew Erickson
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Ryan Warmley
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Andrew Erickson
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Ryan Warmley
Apply. See website for details. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed.