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Top 10 NFL Wild Card Player Prop Picks and Predictions (Ep. 1931)
00:23:02
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A
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
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B
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place your bets. It is me, Joey P, Joe P. Zeppiah, and this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead to the wild card weekend. No, no, wait. It's not just wild. It's super wild card weekend. Oh, my God. It's the greatest thing ever. There's monster trucks, there's Matthew Stafford, there's Drake May, rookie cards. There's all kinds of stuff Sunday, Sunday and Monday. And don't forget Saturday on all day long. It's super wildcard weekend here on Betting Pros. And we're here, the Welsh, Andrew Erickson and myself to help you get all the props that you need and all the touchdown scored to make sure that we are padding your bank rolls. And of course, don't forget to download the Betting Pros app. Bet smarter, not harder. The gentleman put together their five favorite bets as they always do every single Friday, going through the best of what we have left here in this wild card weekend. And Welsh, you're starting off with somebody that I am in on already. I already bet. This is one of my favorite bets of the week. I am very much on the Ram stomping a butthole on the Panthers narrative. Andrew Erickson thinks I'm crazy. You might be right. I might be crazy. These things might be true exclusively of themselves. But let's talk about Matthew Stafford. 263 and a half and you're taking the over. Tell me why you're in on Stafford in the over.
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C
Yeah, I am with you on this one. I think it is very cute the kitty cats got to the playoffs. Oh, hello, kitty cat. It's very nice, but we're sending them back. We're sending them back. This was a Foster situation for the playoffs. This is not a permanent home. The Rams are going to be taking this down and Matthew Stafford is going to go into demon mode. We have seen him pass the ever living crap out of the ball. The Panthers defense has played serviceably, you know, throughout this last little bit of a playoff run. But Matthew Stafford's got Devonte Adams back. This is going to be his spot to shine. And one of the things I battled with is like they've got such a great running game setup, but that still has not stopped Matthew Stafford really at any single point from slinging the ball. PFF has got this as the number one grade for a quarterback to defensive matchup. Panthers currently ranking 21 and 26 respectively to wide receiver and tight End coverage overall. Stafford on this passing yard over, by the way, at 263.5, has hit this in four of his last five games. He got Adams back. You got scores coming in and you got Matthew Stafford, who's going to be slinging the living crap out of the ball. So yes, I also love this one. 263.5 over. I'm not going to play too many crazy ladders or anything like that, but I don't hate putting this at 300 if I was trying to get tricky and fun over the weekend as well. So Matthew Stafford passing yards, that's number one.
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All right, Andrew Erickson, the undertaker, staying on Brand. You're going with a Panther for your first pick, so let's talk about who that is and what the bet is.
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Going to Jalen Coker, the Panthers number two wide receiver to go over three and a half catches coming off a season high. Last week in week 18 against the Bucks had seven targets which he converted into six for 47 yards and one touchdown. And Dave Canales, the Carolina Panthers coaching staff, they cannot stop talking about Jalen Coker. You think everything would be about T Mac? Oh, we had a rookie wide receiver finally hit 1,000 yards. They can't stop talking about Jalen Coker. The last time he faced the Rams led the team with a 30% target share at four catches for 74 yards. Also scored a touchdown. But more importantly, he out targeted McMillan significantly in that matchup. So I think that the Panthers, if they want to find offensive success, they look for other options outside of tmap because I think that's what the Rams are going to try to stop. Right? They know that he is the alpha in this passing game. So I like Jalen Coker here to go over three and a half catches. The Rams defense has faced the third most targets in the slot this season. That is where Jalen Coker primarily lines up inside and he's finished with the sixth highest catch rate. So when he gets targeted, he squeezes the football and he catches it. So give me the Coker going over.
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All right, Saturday night it's going to be all right for fighting between the packers and the Bears, Luther Burden, the number is three and a half receptions. Welsh is getting the over plus money. Tell me why you like this one, Welsh.
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C
This number actually might look a little bit lower than most would have expected and that's simply because Roma Dun is back. Roma Dun is missed. Time was a really good opportunity for Luther Burden to step up and he did. So this number's at 3.5 receptions and I'm taking the over and it is plus money and that is because of a Dunes return. Luther Burden, though, looking back since Week 14, has been kind of a dominant force. First off, he's received six or more targets and four or more receptions in four of the last five games since Week 14. This is the big one where he's become the alpha dog. 27% first read percentage. So like he has been the guy now. An easier step into this prop actually might be the yards it's at. It's low. It's like 41. We've seen him make some big plays but the four reception marker, I think the Bears are going to have to be slinging the ball. I don't think they're going to win this on the ground in this game. And Luther Burden has proven to be that big guy and also they might be using Roma Dunes a little bit more in the red zone. Luther Burden stretching the field. We need full receptions for him at plus money when he's getting six and a half targets per game since week 14 he's got the 27% first read percentage and he has just become the dude. I love this bet for this weekend. Luther Burden, we need four receptions. We got it at plus money.
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D
All right.
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Andrew Erickson of course is known as the undertaker. So it wouldn't be a show if we didn't have it under. So where are you going for your second prop bet of the wild card weekend, Andrew?
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Sticking to the Panthers and Rams game. A lot of action on this game so I'm going to be dialed in watching Panthers and rams at 4:30 eastern. Colby Parkinson's going to go under 21 and a half receiving yards. This line, the best line courtesy of Hard Rock Bet. Look, Kobe Parkinson has played in six games with Puka Nakua, Devonte Adams and Tyler Higby all healthy in the lineup. He has gone over 21 and a half receiving yards one time in those six games. So I think it's just a matter of he's no longer at as much of a featured piece of this Rams passing game. Yeah, he can catch three touchdowns and he can still finish with under 21 and a half receiving yards. So I'm taking the under with all those other playmakers. More focal points of the Rams passing game.
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And of course don't forget right here live during that game, Rams Panthers. Scott Bogman and I will be here on Betting Pros. So ring the bell till it goes ding. Subscribe to the channel so you can Watch the game with us and during the first half of the game give you our live game betting on our pregame betting of that contest right here on their betting pros. You can also check it out on our Twitch Twitch TV Fantasy pros. That's the place to be. And don't forget also our sponsor of our show and that is Hard Rock Bet. Because today's show, like all of them are brought to you by Hard Rock Bet, the big sports book in Florida. And it's the only official sports book there. And it's also the favorite of Florida teams like the Jags, the Box, the Heat, the Magic and the Panthers. There you go. Not those Panthers, that, that's different. It's a hockey Panthers. But anyway, the playoffs kick off this weekend and of course you don't how the script is going to play out, but you can have a same game parlay in there. You could use Hard Rock Bet on game day and turn it into payday. And of course don't forget they've also got NBA action, college basketball, you've got NFL playoffs, you've got national championship around the corner for NFL lots going on. If you bet 5 bucks, you get 150 in bonus bets when you place that first bet on Hard Rock Bet and you win. So you get your winnings plus the 150 in bonuses. Pretty damn good. It's legal in Ohio, Arizona, New Jersey, Indiana, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan as well as Florida. And more states are coming online every single day. So make sure you download the Hard Rock Bet sportsbook app today and get in on the groove there. Payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in other states. Must be 21 plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concern about gambling in Florida. Call 1833 play wise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, next one up here, the Welsh. Let's go and stay in Florida actually with a Florida man named Trevor Lawrence.
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To those Jags. To the Hard Rock zone. Jags. You and I on out of bounds. We you, me and Bogman. I guess it wasn't out of bounds. I actually it was like the pre. Was it out of bounds? The preview show. I don't even know what shows we have anymore, but we talked about this matchups that were coming up and we all liked the Jags. We all liked the Jags kind of secretly. And Bogman was, I think it was out of bounds. It was out of bounds. Thank you. I don't know what the show is. Go check it out. You guys can confirm in the comments below what I don't know. This is over on Fantasy Pros and we all had that like secret out loud thing where it was like, we like the Jags even though the Bills are, you know, a scary team under Josh Allen, but they just have not played like the Bills team that you would have expected this entire season. So saying all of that to say that like the Jags are going to win this game by the arm of Trevor Lawrence and we're going to look at the touchdown market here because we are getting solid odds, you know, anywhere between like -110, -115 on two passing touchdowns from Trevor Lawrence in this playoff game. He has done so in six of his last seven games. He has thrown at least two touchdowns, by the way, the one that he didn't when he rushed for two touchdowns. Now the Bills defense, as far as like the secondary goes, is someone you can throw on. They haven't been giving up a ton of passing touchdowns. But here's some of the teams they've been playing recently. The jets, the Browns play the Eagles, but the Eagles are going to keep the ball on the ground a whole bunch. And when they played the Bengals last, I gave up four passing touchdowns. Like this is going to be a matchup where Trevor Lawrence is going to sling the ball. They've got all their pass catching options. Jacoby Myers I think is in a good spot. I don't think Erickson loves Brenton Strange in this game, but I actually like him in the red zone. I just like Trevor Lawrence. Two passing touchdowns at relatively good odds versus his Bills in this matchup. That is my third bet.
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All right, so number three in the books for the Welsh. Let's go over to you, Andrew Erickson. Your next bet is in that same game, but it's on a tight end.
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Yep. I'm looking at Dalton Kincaid over three and a half receptions. This is a five star bet courtesy of the betting pros. Prop bet cheat sheet. And it makes a ton of sense because the matchup is excellent for Dalton Kincaid, the Bills tight end. We know how good the Jaguars run defense is. We know how bad the Bill's wide receivers are. So what does that mean? Okay, if they're going to have to throw the football a little bit more. I think it's going to be King Cade and maybe Dawson Knox that get more involved here in the passing game. In such a plus matchup, the Jaguars are allowing the sixth most catches, 6.1 per game and second most targets per game to tight ends at 8.7. Kincaid isn't a full time player in the Bill's offense, but whenever he is on the field he's hyper targeted. Case in point, he had three targets last week, caught three passes for 48 yards, he ran six routes. So when he's out there, he's out there to catch passes and they get him off the field because his knee is going to fall off sooner rather than later. So assuming he can, they take the training wheels off Dalton Kincaid because it's playoff time, it's must win situation. I think he's going to get peppered with targets here in a plus spot where I think Buffalo is going to have to throw a little bit more than maybe they do on a normal week basis just because of how great the Jaguars have been against the run this season. So give me the over on the Bills tight end.
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All right. And while you're at it, check out the Prop Ed cheat sheet. It's been there all year for you every year. So if you haven't already looked at it, I don't know what you're wasting your time for. You might as well go check it out now because you don't have much football left here if you can believe it, to bet on. And so get in on it now. Prop Ed chichi go to bankpros.com props or just download the app. Of course it's got all the projections next to all of the props, the overs, the unders, and of course the best place to bet them. So sync your sports books for free when you download the app and check it out today. And also check out Welsh's fourth pick. Along with that, Christian McCaffrey is up next. We couldn't do a 49er playoff weekend without a CMC bet. Could be Welsh.
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No, I was not going to be able to not bet on the Niners and I think your best place is to be staring at Christian McCaffrey and you know usually the like rushing and receiving yard prop is pushed up. It's actually not that bad. There's a heavy expectation that he's going to receive a ton in the passing game. It's like the expectation is like five to six receptions over 40 yards receiving. But I'm going to lock in on the rushing side of this because it's A low Total 57.5 over on the rushing side, first and foremost, because, you know, I think the I mentioned this before, I think this Eagles matchup, this is the type of team, the 49ers, if they're going to be able to make any move, it's actually against a team like the Eagles who kind of struggle with the creativeness in the offense and they're going to struggle with some of that passing game. And if this game is going to be kept on the ground and it's close, it's going to keep Christian McCaffrey continuously rushing the ball. So 57.5 over. He has hit this in three of his last four games, if you don't count week 18. McCaffrey has received 20 or more carries in five straight games. So you know they're going to give him the rock and if they're not playing from behind, they're going to be very comfortable continuously giving that to him. And if you look at the Eagles, Eagles defense obviously is like a stout defense, but they're giving up 96 yards rushing per game and they're averaging over four yards per carry given up. So the 49ers are going to get any creative in this game at all. It is going to be establishing a run game where McCaffrey has struggled this season, having big breakaway plays and he's needed those carries to get to that number. But they're going to give them 20 carries. They're averaging over four yards given up per carry, and this is a low total for Christian McCaffrey. So 57.5 over. If you don't think the 49ers are going to be in this and all this is probably the scariest of the bets. But if they're going to win or be close, It'll be because McCaffrey keeps them in it. So I like this low rushing total for McCaffrey.
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I can get this no matter what. This is my favorite bet actually on individual in that game because the way they've used McCaffrey this year, so he's going to touch the ball a ton. 57 and a half is right on the border. Actually. I think the receiving yard prop might even be even more to my liking potentially because, well, if you like it 108.
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I think it's 108 for the rushing and receiving. If you want to combo them together, that might be the play.
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It might indeed. All right, Erickson, it's going full tight end this episode. You got another One lined up here, Brenton Strange. Let's talk about his three and a half receptions.
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Yeah, I'm taking the under on Breton Strange because I'm too much of a coward to officially make James Cook under a play here because the last time I mentioned this on the Best Bet show, last time I took the under James Cook, I actually checked Joe, and it was not the Browns matchup, it was the Panthers matchup. And he rushed for 217 yards. Didn't he break, didn't he break it.
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Like in the first like drive? Didn't he destroy the under?
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It was, it was over in like the first quarter. It was so bad. I, it was so bad. I tweeted about it be like, hey, sometimes you just got to rip the band aid off. And you know what I get? I, I think that the, the logic is sound with like the Jaguars, the run defense is excellent. No one's rushed for more than 75 yards against them. But James Cook's also the NFL's leading rusher and Buffalo has shown that they can run the ball on basically anybody. It doesn't matter. So I'm just going to, you know what, I'm just going to shy away from that one. I'm going to take this one, which I like much, much more. Brendan Strange, under three and a half catches the Bills again, talking about elite matchups, no team, no defense has allowed fewer catches to tight ends this season than the Buffalo Bills 2.7 per game. So given all the playmakers that the Jaguars have at the pass catcher position, you have Jacoby Myers, you have Parker Washington, you have Brian Thomas Jr. You have the running backs out of the backfield. I think that you're going to see a squeeze on Breton Strange targets because in his last five games he's only gone over three and a half receptions twice because there are so many mouths to feed in this offense with Myers, with Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. So given the matchup is absolutely brutal, given that he hasn't been hitting this number at a consistent rate at all. I think that this is the layup here for in terms of the player props and taking unders in this Jaguars Bills game, Noah has the highest total on the slate. But Buffalo is in the way that they're like the polar opposite of the Jags. Defense is a pass funnel defense. Buffalo is a run funnel. Like they're inviting teams to run the football on them. So if it's more Travis Etienne, Bashal too, and, and not as much Trevor Lawrence necessarily throwing the ball again. Bills have allowed the fewest completions, second fewest passing attempts, fourth lowest completion percentage allowed this season. Maybe it's a lower passing day for Trevor Lawrence. You're seeing the running backs run wild. I think that means less catches for the receivers, most notably with Breton Strange.
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All right, we got one bet left for each of the guys, and it's in the same game, same position, same team. Oh, my God. We got to get to this one here. Let's talk about Kenneth Gainwell first of the Pittsburgh Steelers. You are attacking the receiving yards. Welsh with a 32 and a half over. Talk to me about Gainwell.
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I would love to attack the receptions, but that number's at like five and a half. That's where you're gonna have to play it. And that's why I'm gonna go and stare at the receiving yards and see if he can break one away. And it's 32.5. Aaron Rodgers has talked about wishing he had had a guy like Kenny Gainwell his entire career to play with because he loves to dump the ball off to this guy. Kenny Gainwell on the receiving yard markers, hit this number. 32.5, 32 receiving yards in three of his last four games. On the target front, he's received seven or more targets in four of his last five games. He is the ultimate dump off play. Yes, they're going to have Metcalf back. Metcalf has also kind of played that weird, stupid, like, short yardage. They throw it to him four yards and hope that he can, you know, do anything with the ball after the fact. Some yak there. But Kenny Gainwell has been one of the number one targets in that offense on a defense that is going to be in Aaron Rodgers face the entire game. This is a really tough struggle. Coverage is going to lock down a bunch of those bad wide receivers in general. So Kenny Gainwell is going to get a lot of opportunity. I'm not even sure I hate the six receptions that you could play him at, but 32, 33 receiving yards, I think it's a really low total for a guy that might have the most targets of any Pittsburgh Steeler in this entire game. So I love this on Monday for Kenny Gainwell.
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All right. And you are going the other direction here. You're going with Jalen Warren. So Erickson, why Warren for you?
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Because he's had at least one and a half catches in all but two games this season. So 88% hit rate for Jalen Warren. So on Sunday Night Football against the Ravens, he had the first two targets in the game after he wasn't involved in the passing game in week 17. So I know I put that as one of my best bets before that game. And watching that game, I sat down like, all right, he hit it awesome. Let's go. So I think it's just going to be more of the same. I think both running backs are going to eat in the passing game. I know DK Metcalf is back, but you know who isn't coming back is Darnell Washington. So he was another big underneath target that Aaron Rodgers liked getting the ball to. So given the Texans strength or the pass rush, their cornerbacks are going to lock down the receivers. I think both running backs are going to eat here. So put these two together. It's going to be in our running running back target party on Sunday night Parliament.
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Together we could parlay like five receptions for Gainwell and two for Jalen Warren. Let's go.
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There you go. While you're at it, might as well buy some touchdowns. And don't forget, the touchdown score report is available@bettingpros.com Touchdown to give you the very best and anytime touchdown stats and the prop bets, the odds and the projections to help you find the anytime touchdown bets you need for your bet slip in wild card weekend. I'm going with Blake Corum +195. He's been a touchdown guy for the Rams in the latter part of the season. I know a little injury here at the end of the year, but I think everyone's gonna be fresh and healthy and ready to go on Saturday for the Rams. And give me a Ramandre Stevenson. Why? Because I want Trayvon to score, which means Ramandre is going to. I know how this works out here. Being the Trayvon Henderson stand that I am, it's going to be Ramandre Stevenson getting a touchdown here. Plus 145. Dude, not bad. So I'll take those two RBs. Welsh, where are you going for your touchdown calls for wild card weekend?
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Yeah, I stared at Corum as well. I think it's interesting. But I also do think that you know that that saving of Kyron Williams the entire year is. This is the spot where you end up unloading him. And I did take a minus money play here in Kyron Williams and I'm going to go with him. It's like, you know, wherever you go, minus 120, minus 130 in that relative range. Like if they get in the red zone, it's going to go to him. I'm not even sure that they're going to commit to a complete split series like they did in the regular season and or not take Corum out on a drive when they get into the red zone to Kyron Williams. So I really like Kyron Williams in this situation and then I got a big plus money play. I got to look, I think it's this is the highest percent highest plus money play of any of our touchdown calls but I'm going to go with Brock Purdy on an anytime touchdown. The Eagles have given up Sam, seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year and three over their last two games and they are going to be blitzing Brock Purdy. You all you want to do is make Brock Purdy make one of those stupid boneheaded plays. When they get in the red zone that's where it's going to hunker down, take kill out of the game, take McCaffrey out of the game. Blitz, boom. Brock Purdy up the middle. Rushing touchdown plus 600 on at any time. So that's my, I got my super safe play and my super fun play.
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All right, Andrew Erickson, give us a couple of TDs for the wild card weekend.
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I'm targeting the game with the highest total on the wild card slate. Bills and Jaguars for my touchdowns. Dalton Kincaid plus 250 already talked about how I like the matchup for him to get a lot of targets. He's also been used more in the red zone this year. So if Josh Allen is going to throw touchdowns, I think it's going to be to one of his Bills tight end. So King Cade, Jaguars 23rd in Touchdowns allowed.5 Touchdowns allowed per tight ends this season. And then on the other side for the Jaguars offense. Look, Buffalo can't stop the run. I can't remember the last time they could stop the run. They're allowing the second highest rushing touchdown rate this season at 56%. And who do the Jaguars love to use at the goal line? It's not Travis Etienne, it's Bashow Tugboat Tutin and he is healthy and he's back. So I think they're going to continue to use him at the goal line. Plus 250 against one of the worst run defense left in the playoff bracket. Talk about tune. It's gonna find the end zone.
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All right, so those are the touchdown calls, those are the prop bets. That's everything for wild card weekend. And don't forget we're gonna be here live to kick it off 4:15 Eastern Time for that first game. Panthers Rams will be live here on our Betting Pros YouTube channel. Subscribe and on our Twitch Twitch TV fantasy pros, in case you didn't know about that. So join myself, Scott Bogman, for all those bets. All that fun. It's a great way to watch the games, especially if you, you know, sit in the afternoon, you got no one to hang out with, watch the games, come hang out with us. It's a good time. We'll be there for the whole first half of that game and of course that'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on. For the Welsh and Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids. Enjoy Super Wild Card Weekend.
- [22:38]
A
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and TikTok at bettingpros and Instagram bettingpros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com bettingpros. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.