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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Top Fantasy Football Predictions & Prop Bets for the Wild Card Round (Ep. 1927)
00:52:32
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- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan, warmly joined today by Andrew Erickson. Erickson. We are talking some wild card weekend predictions. This is an extension of our weekly prediction show we've been doing for the last several weeks. We are going to extend it throughout the playoffs here and we'll be talking pretty much just doing a prediction on every single game, sort of a slate preview, however you want to look at it. We're going to continue kind of tracking our record to see how we do. We both went 2 and 3 in week 18. We are both under.500 since starting this show. We, we both started off really strong in the first week and then have not, I don't think, had a winning week since. So we're going to bounce back here now that we're in the playoffs and we're totally dialed in here to see, to see what's going on and talk about how we think these games are going to play out. What do you think of this slate, by the way?
- [00:50]
B
I think this is a really fun slate. Mostly a lot of tight spreads where you want to favor the home team because, oh, home field advantage. Maybe this is where you can get an edge when you're trying to pick sides. So a lot of rematches too, especially with the Saturday games. Those are all rematches. We have the Panthers and Rams playing again. We have the packers and Bears playing for the third time this season. So kind of getting a mix of everything a little bit. So I, I really like Wild card weekend or as they've now coined it since the expansion of the seventh team of the playoffs, super wild card weekend.
- [01:25]
A
Yeah, I actually forgot about the super. So that's my fault in the show sheet to run through the games just in case anybody somehow has missed them. Rams at Panthers is first up on Saturday. Then packers at Bears Saturday night, Sunday afternoon, Bills at Jaguars. Sunday Late afternoon is 49ers at Eagles. Sunday night, Chargers at Patriots and Monday night Football is Texans at Steelers. We're going to go through the games in that order. So these, these predictions are not in order. How strongly we feel about them. We, we will wrap with our hard rock best bet of the week. But this is just in game order, not in prediction order outside of the final one. So Erickson, let's start with Rams. Rams at Panthers. What's your prediction here?
- [02:05]
B
I'm going with the Carolina Panthers to cover this massive spread plus ten and a half because I trust the process worm and I don't Remember what my exact prediction was last week going back in hindsight, I should have just projected the Panthers to win the division because that would have given me more outs than projecting them to actually beat the Tampa Bay years, even though they did cover the plus two and a half because they only lost by two points. So that was a mistake on my part. But hey, new year, new ways to find how to get these predictions right. So. But I'm going back to the proven process with Panthers getting the ten and a half points. Look at the Carolina Panthers after losses this not even just this season, just dating back to last season. They've covered the spread each of their last 10 games following a loss. They've covered the spread 13 straight as underdogs following a loss. So are they going to win this game? Probably not. Even though they did beat the Rams earlier this year, that win was somewhat fluky. Matthew Stafford had two interceptions, also had a sack fumble. Bryce Young threw for three passing touchdowns, two of which came on fourth downs and were plays of over 30 yards. So a lot of stuff that's probably not going to be repeatable in this rematch between these two teams. But I like the fact that the Panthers can play really loose, right? They weren't even supposed to be here, right? If the Saints Falcons game goes different, then this isn't even their slot to host a playoff game. You have the Buccaneers hosting this game instead of the Carolina Patriots because they didn't get the job done against Tampa bay in week 18. So I do think that they have nothing to lose here and I think that it's not going to be necessarily a complete spanking for the Los Angeles Rams. I think the Panthers at least keep it close. We know that Carolina can run the football. They're getting Robert Hunt back, which I think is a big deal. And in the first matchup that's what they did. Dave Canalis had one of the highest run rates in his tenure as the Panthers head coach. The first time these teams played and matched up. So. And we know that the Rams secondary, they can be had at points, right? Emmanuel Forbes, we saw Tetrao McMillan, Jalen Coker have some success against him in their first matchup. So I do think that Carolina can just do enough as the home team with some rain in the forecast, which doesn't favor the indoor team playing on the road to keep this within ten and a half points. So give me the Panthers to cover here. And then my prop kind of teased it a little bit. Jalen Coker, I think that he's going to go over three and a half receptions in this particular game. He had a pretty strong outing the first time that these teams faced off. He led the team with a 30 target share, four catches for 74 yards and he also scored a touchdown. He also out targeted McMillan by a significant margin. McMillan only had two targets in the first matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. So a lot of the attention being placed on T. Mac. I think Jalen Coker, who the coaches have been continuously talking up and talking up, just really, really consistent, they're putting more on his plate. He's completely cemented himself as the wide receiver too in this offense ahead of Xavier Leguette.
- [04:59]
A
He's.
- [05:00]
B
And look at Coker on the season's hole, sixth in catch rate this year at 77%. So good things happen. You throw the ball. Jalen Coker, I think that continues. So I'm going to take the over three and a half receptions.
- [05:11]
A
So this is one where we are going against each other here. I do think the Rams cover they were favored by 10 when I wrote it down in the prediction. That has moved to ten and a half. I still think the Rams are going to cover that despite losing to this team earlier this year. Like, in fact, I think partially because of that, I think they're going to want to kind of come out, show that that was a fluke and kind of get this postseason run started strong. It feels like there was a stretch there in November where the Rams had kind of become everybody's favorite to win the super bowl and now then they didn't even win their division. Right. Obviously this is, you know, they're the five seed here. Instead of having, you know, kind of Chad being the one seed and it's, you know, I think they're going to come into this and want to show like, hey, we are the much better team here. We should have been a division winner. We, we should have beaten this team the last time we faced them. They're getting health two now. Like, devonte Adams should be back. I kind of think they're going to smash. I would be more worried about a backdoor cover of this ten and a half than I would this game. Being close all the way throughout and neither team pulling away. I think the Rams are going to have a big lead in this game and I'm betting on them to hold onto it. My prop is Puka, first touchdown scorer. He's gotten some more work around the red zone and just like scoring touchdowns with Devonte Adams out. Obviously devontae is supposed to be Back this weekend. Even if he is, I still like puka at plus 550 on hard rock. Bet to be the first touchdown scorer in this game because like I said, I think the Rams are going to jump out to an early lead. I don't know if they're going to work Devonte back in like right away, like full, full throttle. So if they don't, I think Puka, I mean I, if it's more likely to be a running back, sure. But at plus 550, I like the odds for Puka. So yeah, I like the Rams to smash in this one. Do you, Erickson, feel like your picking of the Panthers to cover is more about what you like in terms of the matchup and what the Panthers can do or is it more trends based and oh, how this is how they play after a loss and things like that?
- [07:09]
B
I think it's definitely more trends driven if it wasn't so strong with them just covering the spread every single time they lose. Because that's part of the number that we're getting here, right? I'm not coming on here and saying, well, I, I really like the schematic matchup between the parallel line of Panthers against the Los Angeles Rams. The spread is telling you that the Rams are should smash the Panthers. Right. If everything goes according to plan, this game isn't close. But I'm layering in some factors that, well, I think that this maybe is too big of a line. Again, you have an indoor team going on the road where there could be elements in play. If it's raining in this game, that doesn't favor the Los Angeles Rams, who are an indoor dome team where they like to play in controlled environments, that's not necessarily going to be the case here. And talking about tightness, right. The Rams, they should win this game. They're expected to win this game. Carolina isn't even expected to be here, right. So I think they can just play really flying, lose like whatever, like go for it on fourth down, fake punt, why not? Who cares? Like we're not even supposed to be here anyway. Everyone expects us to lose. So I feel like that just gives them a little bit more of an edge to maybe keep things close. And I do like the fact that again I mentioned this, but getting Robert Hunt back, like bolstering that interior offensive line, they tried to run the football with Hubbard and Rico Dowdle in the first matchup. Obviously the Rams have a really strong defense so maybe they don't have as much success. But if they are able to run the ball somewhat effectively. Maybe that keeps Matthew Stafford on the sideline, keeps him at bay and maybe just limits the Rams office from scoring a boatload of points. But yeah, I'm not going to come on here and say, oh well, clearly the Panthers have the better team. It's like no like. But I do think that, okay, ball bounces a couple ways. Again, not expecting another crazy type of turnovers with Stafford like in the first matchup. But look, the Panthers already beat the Rams this season like that happened. So you can't say, oh well, they can't beat them again. Well, they did beat them one time. So that's why I like getting the Panthers again process Play two is just double digit home underdogs. Like that's just something I like to bet blindly and I think that more often than not it works out.
- [09:07]
A
The other thing I'll say on the Panthers is I think the Rams are the best team in football. Like if I had to pick one. And the Panthers are the 13th worst team by DVOA to make the playoffs in the history of that metric. So like this is obviously, I mean and we all knew that they were the worst playoff team in this field. But like they are historically bad as far as playoff teams go. And you know, Stafford's been there before, McVay's been there before. I think this is going to be a shellacking. That's the way I see it. Like I said, we're going head to head right already off the bat. We're going to agree later on but.
- [09:40]
B
Well this way at least one of us gets the prediction right.
- [09:43]
A
Yes Y guaranteeing we go one and one. Here we have a special offer for everyone. You can unlock a month of Betting Pros Premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today. Use promo code FP1MONTH. That's the number one not spelled out. Get access to tools like the same game Parlay tool, the Prop Bet Analyzer and the Prize Picks Prop Bet cheat sheet. Don't miss out. Try it free for one month. Now available on iOS and Android. Erickson let's go to the Saturday night game. That's Packers Bears. Really fun one. I'll go first on this one. This is one where we are kind of going against each other again. I've got the packers quote unquote upsetting the Bears with a big offensive explosion. Obviously I put that in quotes because the other reason it would look like an upset is the seeding. Green Bay is favored by a point on Hard Rock Bet even though they are the seven seed and Chicago is the two seed and it's in Chicago and it looks like the weather might not be great for this game. I don't care. I can't stop thinking Ericsson about when the packers were the seventh seed going to number two seed Cowboys and Jordan Love was insane. Just went absolutely nuclear on a bad defense. The Bears are not a good defense. I the, you know, Jordan Love is a seven seat again. He's not going to be afraid of walking into a two seat. He's because he's, you know, one big before there. So the prop I like here is Jordan Love over 227 and a half passing yards and also over one and a half passing touchdowns. But really the prediction is just like I think this is going to be a really big offensive game from the Packers. The, my, my concern is less about the packers having a good offensive game and more about them still winning because I'm worried about their defense. But I, I think the offense shows up here in a big way against this kind of poor Bears defense. Even if the weather's bad in Chicago and it's cold and everything. I think the packers win this game with, with a huge day from Love.
- [11:31]
B
Yeah, I'm not confident about who wins this game because when you look at the first matchup and I know Jordan Love got banged up in the second matchup between these two teams, but it came down to the final play in both games to decide the winner and a fun stat that I pulled. So Chicago, despite covering or one of the games, it was a push, but they covered the second game. The Bears have never led at any point against the packers this season. Not at one point because the only time they won was in overtime and the game's over and then they immediately took the lead. So it is, I get why the packers are favored here again as the seventh seed, but I think that this is razor close. And I don't think that when you're betting on this pre game that you're going to feel confident at any point where like oh, I made the right choice because I think it's going to come down to the fourth quarter and it's going to come down to which one of these quarterbacks can make a play. I mean that's been Chicago's kind of the story of their season. Right. Taking advantage of turnovers and you know, pulling out all the or Ben Johnson again, Caleb Williams creating magic in the fourth quarter to kind of will their way back to victory. So for me I'm just taking the Bears plus One and a half. They are the home team, and that's the way I see it. I could really see a scenario where they lose by one point to Green Bay, but I technically get the win because they cover the one and a half. So I'm just trying to look for any type of margin I can get, and that's with the Bears catching the points. 1 and a half as the home team. I like them. There they are, the number two seed again. Maybe that's a bit of a fugazi. I think that we could probably mostly agree with that, but every time that we've looked at, oh, well, the Bears can't win in Philadelphia, and then they would just win Philadelphia. So they can't beat Green Bay. Oh, then they beat Green Bay. So I feel like they've been undervalued. Maybe. I don't want to say inaccurately because a lot of the advanced metrics would suggest that, hey, this isn't a typical number two seed, but when push comes to shove, they end up finding ways to win these games, even if it's not, you know, the most common way to do it. And they've shown they can run the football effectively. I mean, Green Bay's defense. I can talk about the Bears defense, Green Bay's defense, it is a shell of its former self. They haven't won a game since Michael Parsons got hurt.
- [13:42]
A
I'm surprised the total is only 46 on hard rock bet with these two defenses.
- [13:47]
B
It's to me. And that was another play I was considering in this game was the under on 46 and a half. And that's more about, okay, this is a January game being played in Chicago where weather could play a factor. I looked at the latest weather report. Wind, it looks like, could play an element there against snow. That's not really a big deal. Again, these. Both these teams play outdoors plenty, so I don't think that really affects the total in the game. But if we're getting winds, gusts over 20 miles per hour, then maybe you're going to see more of a running attack from both these. We know the Bears want to run the football, and that doesn't necessarily create a environment for, oh, this is going to be an absolute shootout. And again, that 49ers game that we saw a couple weeks ago, I mean, Brock Purdy's going up and down the field like he could not be stopped. Is that the case for the packers with Jordan Love? Do they feel like, okay, we do want to do this is how we want to attack this Bears Defense, we want to throw it with Jordan Love with Christian Watson. I feel like the packers have, you know, so many weeks ago it looked like they had everything they needed to make a Super bowl run. They had Tucker Kraft, they had Micah Parsons, they had devontae White and then just they continue to lose guy after guy and you feel like are they going to run out of steam at some point. So again, not super confident in which team is going to win this game. This game I'm not sure I will have a ton of real life action on just because I'm. I'm not really confident and I think it's going to come down to the fourth quarter. So I think for me my actually most confident bet is actually the player prop side of things and that's going to go to Roma Dunze, who looks like he's going to play in this game. He's missed five straight games for the Chicago Bears. Dealing with there's a foot fracture injury and he tried to come back. I don't remember which game it was but he got re injured in pregame warmups. That being said, his reception prop is at three and a half. That is way too high for a player that hasn't played in basically over a month. And even before he got injured, he was going under this number consistently under three and a half receptions in seven of his last 10 games. Seven of his last 10 games played. And basically since his absence, what have we seen from this Bears offense is we've seen Luther Burden and Colston Loveland kind of emerge, flourish, break out all over the place. So I think that with a Bears offense that wants to establish the run, two matchups against the packers this season. Negative 3% pass rate over expectation in Week 14. Negative 8% pass rate over expectation in Week 16. I don't think there's going to be enough sheer passing volume for the Chicago Bears offense which has been trailing the entire time they've played the Green Bay packers this season to fuel a doomsday to get at least four receptions with so many guys to feed that have also like taken big steps. So that's my best bet for this game. Probably it's going to be the prop at Roma Dunes they under three and a half catches.
- [16:24]
A
Let me ask you this before we move off this game. What do you think the spread would be if the Bears had not converted that onside kick? Because that's obviously like a fluky play with the way the onside kick is that you don't. You wouldn't expect that to happen. So if they hadn't done that, packers would have swept that series. That Gabe never would have gone to overtime. What do you think the line would be different here?
- [16:46]
B
I mean maybe the packers would be favored by more than one and a half points. But I, I think to your point it's the packers are still favored. Right. And they are the road team. The I believe the spread before that Bears packers game in the first matchup was the Bears were favored. So I don't think that the market is necessarily overreacting to oh well, the Bears beat the Packers. Anyone that watched that game would realize, well, they shouldn't beat the Packers.
- [17:13]
A
The packers did open as underdogs in this game. It was Bears minus one. Then it switched to Bears or Packers minus one on Hard Rock bet at least.
- [17:22]
B
Yeah. So I would agree with that. I when I did my handicapping for the betting pros projections, I had the packers as favorites. But I want to acknowledge that Chicago at home, Caleb Williams, even in the pre Ben Johnson era, he's been kind of lights out. The Bears have the number one record against the spread at home since Caleb Williams entered the NFL. 10, 5 and 1, 67%. So for me it's, I'm kind of like tossing my hands in the air. It's like well, Bears at home, that usually works out more often than not. So give me the Bears plus one and a half to cover.
- [17:53]
A
Last thing I'll say. Just like Love and LaFleur have been there before. Caleb Williams first playoff game, you know, Ben Johnson first playoff game. As a head coach sometimes. Not that the moment will be too big for them, but it is a different experience playing the playoffs and I'm a little wary of that whenever it's somebody's when it's both their first times doing it. If you want a chance to win the ultimate symbol of fantasy glory, the fantasy football championship belt, courtesy of our good friends at Trophy Smack, the number one destination for epic fantasy football hardware, then this is your moment. This massive gold plated belt is built to make a statement. It's bold, it's heavy and it's guaranteed to turn heads in your league. Don't just win your championship with wear it. To enter all you need to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now. Drop a comment below on any of our videos and that's it. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel, so make sure to turn on notifications so you don't miss your chance to claim this championship belt and flex on Your entire league. Erickson first game on Sunday is Bills at Jaguars. What is your prediction here going to.
- [18:53]
B
Go with the Jaguars covering the spread plus one and a half? They're catching the points their home underdogs and I don't agree with that. I think that the Jaguars are kind of being slept on based on the larger sample size of Trevor Lawrence being a bust for the most part. But in the second half of this season we have seen him really flourish in this Liam Cohen offense and the Buffalo Bills. I feel like this is one of the worst incarnations of a Josh Allen led Bills team that we've seen in a while. So I understand why the Bills are road favorites here because it's Josh Allen like when he puts on the superman cape, he can literally beat any other team and it doesn't matter where it's being played. So I understand why there's more public attention and love for Josh Allen as the favorite here. But I think collectively the Jacksonville Jaguars have the more complete team and matchup wise they have the number one run defense against the number one rushing offense which is Josh Allen and James Cook. Again, they're facing the rushing yards leader this week if they can shut down James Cook. Jaguars have not allowed a running back to hit 75 rushing yards this season. No running back has hit that number. They faced Jonathan Taylor twice, he came close over 70 yards in both games but did not hit that 75 yard rushing yards mark. So if they can neutralize James Cook in the run game and force Josh Allen to beat them through the air with just an underwhelming group of pass catchers where Khalil Shakira and Delton Kincaid, Is this how the yours. Is this how the Bills office is going to go down in Jacksonville and win where Jacksonville has been really, really effective at home? The Jaguars are 7 to 1 and gets to spread at home this season 88%. That is the best in the NFL. So when it comes to home field advantage, it's not Pittsburgh, it's not Cleveland, it's actually the Jaguars in Duvall county that actually has the highest home field advantage. So I think that taking Buffalo out of their element in Buffalo in the cold weather where they thrive, I think that matters. The Bills have lost eight straight games on the road in the playoffs, so they don't play nearly as well at home as they do on the road. We've seen them lay a couple eggs on the road this season and I think that Jacksonville, given that they're at home, they can neutralize what Bills want to do best strength on strength. I'm going to lean towards the Jaguars here in a close spread, so I think they're going to win here. And my best bet for the props is James Cook under 80 and a half rushing yards. I already listed out the fact that I haven't given up a running back to hit 75 rushing yards this season. James Cook obviously is the best running back they have faced this year as the rushing yards leader, but he's been held in check in other matchups this season. Ravens, Patriots, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Bengals, Eagles and we look at those guys or those teams in the aggregate. The Bengals is the one that kind of sticks out like a sore thumb, but many of those were top 10 top 12 run defenses. So against the number one run defense, I think the Jaguars are going to sell out to stop James Cook and make Josh Allen beat them with this underwhelming cast of characters catching the ball.
- [21:47]
A
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- [24:43]
B
Yeah, this one is tough for me to co sign on the under just because this is a static listing off at the end of the fantasy season was the top two quarterbacks and fantasy points per game since Week 5. Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen. So that's so that, so that scares me so much because it's me betting against two quarterbacks that have been been red hot for the most part. So especially if it's one of the few games that we get that's in warm weather climate and there's no rain, there's no wind. I, I think that this game could could go over eight of the Bills last 10 postseason games have gone over the total so I can't, I don't want to double bet against Josh Allen again. I'm already betting it's him to lose and then I'm betting against him to not score points. That's where I get a little, little, a little gun shy.
- [25:29]
A
I would say it's, it's fair rebuttal. I'm not going to change my prediction, but maybe that pulls me off of making it my best bet of the week. So I appreciate the rebuttal there Erickson. Check this out everyone. If you're like us and hate when your fantasy season ends before the real football gets good, you've got to try playoff blitz.com it's fantasy football built for the NFL playoffs. No drafts, no waivers, no sweat. Members just pick a lineup each week from the playoff teams. They can only use each player once, so once they start him, they lose him. That's where the strategy kicks in. And remember, no need to hold a draft. Just create a league and invite your friends. Starting a league is super easy. Takes less than a minute and you're all in. From wild card weekend to the Super Bowl. PlayoffBlitz.com is your home for playoff. Fantasy football leagues are just 79 bucks and you can invite as many people as you like, run an office pool, invite your regular league group or even your grandma's bingo league. Join today@competopplitz.com where fantasy football meets the Super Bowl. Enter promo code Fantasy Pros for a discount. That's playoff blitz.com, promo code fantasy Pros for a discount on your league. 49ers Eagles Great game here. Sunday late afternoon slate Erickson I'll go first on this one. Despite being the second lowest total of the slate on Hard Rock Bet, this ends up as one of the highest scoring wild card games and easily hits the over. That is my prediction. Let's see. I just want to make sure it hasn't moved. So the total is at 44 on Hard Rock Bet, which is the second lowest of the week ahead of only Houston Pittsburgh. So um, I think that it is going over. At times this season the Eagles run defense has been very gettable. I know that overall they're a good defense, but at times the run defense has been gettable. Obviously. Christian McCaffrey, very good running back and then the Niners defense, like I think Robert Salah is really, really good at his job but at a certain point you get kind of past the point of no return with injuries and this defense like is can play well but is I don't think very good. Like, like obviously you know, due largely to injuries, the Eagles just went on a Super bowl run last year. I know they are not the same team they were last year but it would not shock me to see them get hot in January again. A team that has. They were all just here before and know what they're doing and still has a largely healthy team. Right. I mean it's not. Nobody's fully healthy this time of year but they have Jalen hurts, they have Saquon. You know as you Brown's about to all that like I think this game is going over. I don't want to pick a winner because I could see it going either way. But I think this game is hitting the over because it's such a low number two on the total. Hurts over one and a half passing yard touchdowns. Passing touchdowns. Excuse me, Christian McCaffrey over 110 and a half combined rushing and receiving yards. Those are both on Hard Rock Bet I like both of those as my props. Erickson, what say you?
- [28:05]
B
I love the Eagles in this spot and I think it comes down to which of the stud tackles is actually healthy in this game. Eagles expectation. We have the Lane Johnson truth, say or soothsayer. Brian Baldinger came out and said Lane Johnson's gonna play this game. And apparently he just has this connection with Lane Johnson where I think yesterday he said that he wasn't gonna play and everybody started freaking out because the reports from Schefter were that Lane Johnson is gonna play in this game. But then Baldinger updates it because he can do that because he pays for X or whatever and he can edit his post. He said no, he's going to play in this game. And Trent Williams, the rhetoric around him is not nearly as optimistic. So it seemed like, oh, they're going to get Trent Williams back. That's what we thought was going to happen after he missed week 18. Now it's he will be evaluated throughout the week. So to me that says even if he plays in this game he has a hamstring injury. He's not going to be 100% and what do we see? This is why one of my best bets for the Week 18 slate was I don't remember. I remember what it was with the 49ers. I think we know. I picked the Seahawks to win like that. That was my best bet. And that had to do with this offense doesn't nearly play as well or excel without Trent Williams healthy in the lineup. They average, I think, almost six points fewer per game. And what do they do against Seattle? Nothing. They were lucky for that score to be that final score because Seattle left so many points on the board. That should have been a blowout. So I think that the 49ers, they talked about all last week how this was kind of like their super bowl push. We win week 18, we beat the Seahawks, we get the bye week, we can get healthy and then we don't have to ever go on the road. They lost that game and now their, their reward or punishment is now they have to go to Philadelphia, play outdoors in the elements against a well rested defense. It's going to get Jalen Carter back. It's going to get Jalen Films back. I think that this is a terrible matchup for the 49ers playing on the road. They're injured, they're banged up. So I like the Eagles here laying the points. I think that defensively the Eagles could win that way. I think that their offense, to your point of liking the over in this game, I think their offense can get rolling here. They get Lane Johnson back. They get the offensive line as a unit healthier by taking some guys out of the lineup in week 18, whereas the 49ers, I don't think are nearly as lucky. And they have, they got more injuries last week too. Their. Their linebacker room is more banged up. D winners is probably not going to play in this game. Bethune, one of their linebackers, he's not going to play. They just signed Kaiser White because they needed another linebacker body. So I think that the injuries are going to finally catch up to the 49ers defense. And I think that the Eagles, this is where they kind of jump start. It's crazy Worm. I feel like the Eagles are like the least talked about team that's trying to repeat as a Super bowl champion when like the number three seed. I get that they don't always win in the prettiest ways, but when you look up, oh, wow, the Eagles won again, or hey, they're in the playoffs, hey, they're hosting a playoff game. So I think that this is where they kind of sneak up on people and be like, oh yeah, the Eagles are a good team. And when they have all their guys going, especially with Lane Johnson back lineup, you see this on this offense, go to another level and play like a top 10 unit. I do think that this is going to be a, I think this is the spot where we see a team dominate. So I know that you really like the Rams to dominate the Panthers. I think that this isn't big enough. I think the Eagles win by a touchdown, so I'll easily take the minus four and a half.
- [31:28]
A
Do you like the Eagles as a Super bowl futures bet, by the way? We are. There was just a kind of collective article we did. I don't know when it's coming out but, but you know, our editor Kelly asked us to submit our picks for super bowl futures and I didn't pick the Eagles, but I strongly considered them. They're plus 900 on hard rock bet as the defending super bowl champ. When you know a team like the Chiefs is not there, like from past years, kind of like as this big, you know, threat to everybody, like +900 for the defending champs who are like reasonably healthy, have been there before, like, it just, it just would really not, I'm not really even rooting for it, but it really would not surprise me to see the Eagles just say like, hey, we got through the regular season, we still won the division, we're still in a good spot. Let's kind of flip the switch and look really good again. And the defense is good. Like, like I said, I'm, I do have some belief in the Niners and I think there's going to be really high scoring back and forth game. So I don't agree with you on the blowout, but I like, I do think as a futures bet at plus 900, I like the Eagles quite a bit now.
- [32:29]
B
I love that. And going to your, what you had mentioned about the Jaguars and some of the AFC teams, a lot of players playing playoff games for the first time, not a lot of experience. How many, how many playoff games? Jalen Hurts played a lot and he's won a lot of playoff games. And it's not just him, it's that whole team. This team is battle tested, ready to go in the playoffs. They know what to expect. They don't have the jitters or anything like that. And I mean what is Kyle Shanahan done in the playoffs? Just leave a lot to be desired, especially when he plays on the road. So I, I, I like the Eagles.
- [33:03]
A
There are three super bowl winning quarterbacks in this entire playoff field. Matthew Stafford's one of them. We both like the Rams in general. You know, Aaron Rodgers is one of them who we obviously like. Nobody's picking the Steelers. And then it's Jalen Hurts. Like, there are coaches. Like, Sean Payton has Super bowl experience. Bo Nick certainly doesn't. Like, I just like, if you, if you put any value in experience, then I think Eagles are a really, really sharp like the Eagles in Buffalo and Buffalo, like I like, like you said, you make they're not the same team. But like, if you're going to squint your eyes and say, like, hey, it's Josh Allen, he's won a lot of playoff games. Like, like, I can totally get that. Those are the two teams that, like, feels like they've been there before. Besides the Rams, who again, are my favorite, who I think are the best team. Everybody else, it's like, do you really think, like, Drake May is awesome? Is he winning it in his second season, like his first year kind of going through the playoffs? Is Trevor Lawrence going to win the Super Bowl? Is Justin Herbert, with this offensive line is Sam Darnold, even though they're the one seed? Like, and I don't mean to be dismissive, but just like it's easy to, I think, fall back on the Eagles when they're getting the kind of odds they're getting and have largely the same team back.
- [34:09]
B
I'm glad that you brought that up because I'm definitely going to sprinkle some on that nine to one, especially because it's a ticket that, you know is probably live throughout the playoffs. So you can kind of see you can make hedge bets. I know that Peralta talks about that in the betting pro show where you're kind of building like a portfolio. Okay, like this here this year, like half a unit, quarter of a unit. And then you can kind of play off those bets that you make before the bracket starts so that you can ultimately find a way to make money or win your bet, even if you don't exactly project everything correctly. So I love that call by you. I do want to mention my prop here as well. It does have to do with Jalen Hurts. It's actually him going under his passing attempts. So on the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet, one of the most profitable ways this season for betting player Props has been under passing attempts or just passing attempts in general. For quarterbacks, the system has been great, pinpointing which quarterbacks are going to go either over or under their passing attempts. And I love this one here, under 29 and a half. So his last 10 home games, Jalen Hurts has been under this in seven of them. All three of their postseason games last season. Just overall he's under in six of his last 10 games. The four games that he has gone over in his last six games played have also been games where Lane Johnson has not played last 15 games with Lane Johnson in the lineup under an 11 of those 15 games, 7 and 10 towards the under with Lane Johnson in the lineup this season. It's not that the team decides to throw less when Lane Johnson is playing, it's the offense is more efficient so they don't need to drop back and throw 30, 35 times per game because oh, incomplete, incomplete. It's much more of an efficient passing day for Jalen Hurts and just an offense in general when Lane Johnson is back in the lineup. So I think this is another one that pairs well with an Eagles victory or an Eagles win by no. 7 or 10 points.
- [35:56]
A
I'll also just say quickly like if you think if you're really convinced the Eagles are winning this game, think about who the second round matchup would be. Unless it's the Rams. You're talking about a beat up packers team. You're talking about them maybe going to Chicago against the bad Bears defense. You're talking about them maybe a miracle like hosting a bad team.
- [36:16]
B
Probably won't be Seattle.
- [36:17]
A
It can't be Seattle because they're the three seed. So in round two it can't be them. So like that's what I'm saying. Unless it's the Rams. If you are sure they're beating the Niners. Unless it ends up being the Rams, which would only happen if the packers win, which obviously we think is very possible. But unless it's the Rams, they're going to be a pretty clear favorite over whoever they face in the divisional Round two. So now you're saying there's a decent chance of them in the championship game. You don't want to count your your chickens your for your eggs hatch. But you you get my point is that there's a really obvious path for a really experienced team here. So it's a it's an interesting case to make the NFL playoffs start on Saturday, January 10, and betting pros is going live for it. Join Joe Psapia and Scott Bogman at 4:15pm Eastern this Saturday for a first half Betting live stream as the Panthers host the Rams. We're tracking line movement in real time, breaking down live odds and calling out bets as the game unfolds. Get in before kickoff and catch us live on The Betting Pros YouTube channel or on the Fantasy Pros Twitch channel at Twitch TV fantasypros All right, Erickson, your team up next, Chargers at the Patriots. I'll let you go first here for.
- [37:23]
B
Your team taking the Patriots to win. That's my favorite prediction for this game. I don't have it within me to lay the three and a half points with the Patriots just because I hate that number with the hook because I think that this game is going to be lower scoring. That's how I would play this from a betting perspective. I wouldn't really bet against the spread again. I'm going to root for the Patriots to win anyway. So I'll probably sprinkle some money on it just because it just makes my experience more fun as a New England fan. But I think that the best bet in this game is actually the under at 46 and a half points. And the reason I say that is because the Patriots as well know played the cupcake of cupcake schedules this season. Basically didn't play really anybody good. The teams that they lost to, they lost to the Raiders, Steelers and the Bills. They also beat the bills one time. The Browns are the only other top 10 defense in DVOA and EPA per play allowed this season that the Patriots have faced. The Chargers are a top 10, if not top five defense. Last week the Broncos offense did not look fully functional against a Chargers team that was playing backups for the most part in that game. So I think that schematically I know that we were talking about their defensive coordinator Worm when we were talking about before we started recording Harbaugh and the Ravens looking for a head coach. You really like their dc I was.
- [38:40]
A
Going to bring this up. Yeah, yeah.
- [38:42]
B
You really like him as a future head coach candidate and I couldn't agree more. I think that he is going to get a lot of head coaching buzz and it's because of how well he has coached this defense. So even playing their backups just last week, I mean he was shutting down the Denver Broncos offense. So I think this is going to be a challenge for the Patriots offense and Drake May again. The last two weeks. Jets Dolphins like Drake May didn't even finish these games because of how bad, how bad these defenses were playing. I think the Chargers is going to be a wake up call for them again. Doesn't mean that they can't win the game. I just think this is more of a 20 to 17 type of setup where it's not high flying and it's more of a struggle versus rolling over against some of the bad AFC east opponents. So that's the thing I want to look at from the Patriots side and then from the Patriots defense. Their defense is getting much healthier getting Milton Williams back. Robert Spillane is going to be coming back to lineup and I talked about this on all the rankings show this year in the second half where I was attacking the Patriots run defense with running backs in my rankings because whoever since they lost Milton Williams their run defense had not been nearly as good as and this was from Jared Small. He tweeted this out earlier yesterday. 12 games of Milton Williams 56.3 rushing yards allowed per game for the Patriots defense in the five games without Milton Williams, 127 rushing yards allowed per game. And a lot of that has to do with other guys also missing time like linebacker Robert Spillane. So my prop for this game is Omarion Hampton going under his rushing arts prop. It wasn't listed when I last looked on Hard Rock Bet I think he's going to finish under 50 rushing yards because the stat that everyone was pulling and citing during the Patriots run as like the number one run defense was no running back has hit 50 yards against the Patriots run defense. I think that Patriots runs defense shows up here in this matchup and limits the Chargers running game. Again puts Herbert into obvious passing situations which doesn't always work behind this patchwork offensive line. So game total going under 46 and a half points. Patriots find a way to win, but it's going to be ugly.
- [40:36]
A
We see this game very similarly. My prediction is that the Patriots win, but the Chargers keep the game much closer, much longer than expected for a 2 versus 7 matchup. I really see it play out like quite similarly to what you described. Jesse Minter is a big part of that. Like obviously I'm paying very close attention to these coaching candidates given the state of the Ravens and like Minter is right at the top of my list. But the reason that I think I don't think it's enough to overcome and actually have the Chargers win is that like what I like about Minter is that I think he's, he's built a really good defense with a less than talented group of players. Like it hasn't mattered that they are kind of outmanned in certain spots. The fact is they are outmanned in certain spots and against Drake May the way he's been playing this year, like I do think that will be enough for the Patriots to win. But like the Patriots have not been tested this year and I'm, I'm not even sitting here to say that that should be a case against Them in terms like the MVP conversation or whatever. That is a really easy schedule. It's just a fact that like there have been very, very few like real litmus tests for this team this season. Even the ones that you thought might be like in Baltimore on Sunday Night Football. Lamar gets hurt in the first half, right, like they did. It just worked out really favorably for them where they did not have to overcome a lot this year. Every team who wins 14 games overcomes some, but they didn't have to overcome as much as you would really want for a battle tested team. Now Mike Frable is battle tested as a player. He's been in the playoffs as a coach. But Drake May, I mean again, he's really young. This is his first playoff run somewhere to Caleb Williams here making the playoffs for the first time in year two. And I think that this is going to be a really tricky defense, that there's going to be a lot of disguised coverages and I think it's going to going to, you know, throw a wrench in the works here for the Patriots offense. And you know, Jim Harbaugh is a really, really good coach. So I think the Patriots will win. They are the superior team this is at home. Drake May is, you know, if not the MVP in the clear. Top two of MVPs this year. The Patriots are going to win this game, I believe. But I do think that the Chargers keep this really close and put a real scare into Erickson throughout the game. My prop is drake may under 24 and a half rushing yards. I see this as more of a game where they're going to throw a lot. I think the Chargers know how to stop. I think Jesse Minter is clever enough to know how to kind of limit the rushing of a quarterback. You know, obviously there's like a history of rushing quarterbacks in terms of like Greg Roman side of ball, like he knows like what rushing quarterbacks like to do. So I just, I just kind of expect him to do a good job limiting what, what Drake May does with his legs. But Patriots will win, but I think the Chargers keep this one really close.
- [43:05]
B
Lock in the under.
- [43:06]
A
Lock in the under. All right, Texans Steelers final game on the slate. Monday Night Football should have been Texans, Ravens. It's not Ultimately I'm glad that Harbaugh was, you know, moving on. It was time. So I guess if that loss helped get him there, maybe it's not the worst thing in the world. That's me coping. I, I, we both see this one I think pretty similarly. So I'll just go first. I think the Texans win this easily. I think they cover easily and I think it's just a well rounded victory. I think Stroud plays well. I think Jaden Higgins catches in touchdown anytime. Touchdown for him is my prop. I also like Stroud over one and a half passing touchdowns and but it's really about the defense. Like at the end of the day, like the Texas defense is the best in football. For my money, they're going up against a very old Aaron Rodgers coming off a long season where he's gotten banged up. It's not a good offense there. The Sears offense could do nothing until Kyle Hamilton went out of the game for the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. And the Texas defense is better than the Ravens defense even when Kyle Hamilton is in there. Like this is an insanely good defense. The Steelers have not moved the ball against good defenses in the last few weeks, really for most of the season. They do get DK Metcalf back, which is different than it has been, you know, in these last two weeks. Of course, that, that is a real difference maker, but I don't think it's going to be nearly enough. I think Stroud's going to play really well. I thought Stroud played well even though they didn't upset the Chiefs last year. I thought this team played generally pretty well against the Chiefs in the playoff game a year ago in the divisional round. I think people are more only looking at the defense. The defense is the big part of it. I think the offense is going to play well for the Texans too. Like, I'm just, I really don't think the Steelers team is good at all. They obviously, like, they're not as bad as the Panthers, but it's very similar to them in that they just took advantage of a really bad division this year. Like this is. I can't believe the Texans aren't favored by more. I think the only reason they're not favored by more than three points, which is what it is on Hard Rock Bet is like the Tomlin Devil Magic. You know, Roger's been there before, that kind of stuff. Like Steelers never lose at home on Monday Night Football. I know Peralt was talking about that. Like, I get all that. I think the Texans are. And by the way, they're hot. They've won nine in a row. I just think they are a much, much better team than the Steelers. And also a specifically tough matchup for the Steelers. Like they, they do things that the Steelers will struggle with and they are better. I think the Texans Smash in this one. It's not my prediction. I think they win by double digits though. But like my prediction is just that they easily cover.
- [45:26]
B
Yeah, that's mine as well. So we, I know we've kind of disagreed on a lot of these particular games, but these last two, I think we're seeing it through the same lens. So I agree. I like the Texans here laying the points even on the road. Again, they're the road team. They're a dome team, which is why they're not favored by more points. And the Steelers are 23. 0 at home on Monday Night Football, which is just such a bonkers stat that Peralt talked about on the betting pro show. CJ Stroud's also own two on the road in the playoffs, so that's another kind of factor when you're looking at some of these longer trends. But there's one elite unit that's taking the field on Monday Night Football. It's the Texans defense. And that's the defense that I in the team I want to put my prediction on because that's what I have the most confidence. I don't think I've ever had confidence in anything Steelers related this season. It's just, hey, sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. Again, the process play is always up. Steelers home underdogs. Yeah, take them outright. Doesn't matter anything else. So I get that from that perspective, especially if it is like plus three and a half. Is that where the line ends up settling? But I've seen Texas Texans -2 and a half win by a field goal. I love that type of bet there. So I like the Texans here as well. For my prop, Jalen Warren going over one and a half receptions, this is one of my favorite ones from the game against the Ravens. Just a really low number for Jalen Warren. I think he's hit this in 13 of 16 games this season. We know the Steelers love to pepper the running backs in the passing game. It's mostly been Kenneth Gainwell this season, but Jalen Warren also gets involved. I think he had like three catches or two catches on like the first couple plays for the Steelers offense against the Ravens in week 18. I remember because I was following, I was closely following because I had the bet on Jalen Warren to go over his receptions prop and he got it like right away. So I think they continue to evolve, especially to keep those pass rushers for the Houston Texans at bay. Aaron Rodgers wants to get the ball quick. He doesn't want to get hit on a cold Monday Night Football game in Pittsburgh. So I think Jalen Warren is going to go over his receptions prop at one and a half. And to your point about the Steelers and trends, I will say one thing. They haven't covered the spread in last six postseason games. So I know that they always find a way to sneak into the playoffs as a bottom seed or the last division winner. But what happens when they get to the playoffs? Nothing. And Worm, I didn't mention this to you when you were talking about the Harbaugh thing, but did you see the meme where it was the, the field goal post, right, and they had the two outside. It was like Harbaugh gets fired and then in the middle, Tom gets fired.
- [47:50]
A
I did see this, yes.
- [47:52]
B
I thought, I thought that was absolutely hilarious because that's how this league operates at times where it's so results driven, where it's not really. But it's like a bad look to fire a coach or make a big transactional move after a win, but after a loss, it like opens up every avenue. Okay, well now we can make this move that we're going to do anyway, but because we lost, now we can actually fire upon this move as opposed to if the Ravens win that game. Well, Harbaugh's office is still the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens and he's coaching in this particular matchup. So, yeah, Monday Night Football, let's see all streaks come to an end, Worm. And maybe it comes to an end for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
- [48:29]
A
Well, it would have. Yeah, it would have. They have the streak of the Monday Night Football wins. They also have the streak of not winning a playoff game in the last decade. Competing streaks here. Let's get to Hard Rock Best Bets. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. So it's time for a Hard Rock Best bets of the week, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Erickson, what is your Hard Rock best bet of the week?
- [48:52]
B
Yeah, I didn't put this in the show sheet yet because I liked going through each of my picks and plays to kind of in my mind think about where did I come with the most bravado behind a pick and. Or maybe I disagree. I think it was the Eagles. I think that's kind of where I had the most confidence in my pick. So that's what I'm going to go with. My Hard Rock best bet of wild card weekend. Eagles laying four and a half points, Putting the smackdown on a injury depleted 49ers season. So give me the Philadelphia Eagles to Make their run at repeating as super bowl champs getting that W in wild card weekend.
- [49:26]
A
I told you I was considering for my hard rock best bet of the week the under in Bill's Jags. You talked me out of that so I'll go with my other choice that I was debating between which is the game we just Talked about Texans minus 3. Honestly, if I'm betting it, I'd parlay with the over in the game. Even though I really like the Texas defense to shut down the Steelers. I think the Texans off offense is going to play really well in this game and then the Steelers Steelers will do enough to cover, you know, to, to get over that total. But the best bet itself is Texans minus three. And I recognize the folly maybe in betting against Mike Tomlin in, you know, spots where you think it's obvious, but I just can't get away from Texans minus three against this particular Steelers team. It feels like such a smash.
- [50:07]
B
Yeah, well one thing I didn't mention just kind of as an overarching trend from this particular weekend, wildcard weekend. So we all know the wild card weekend has changed in terms of the amount of teams that are playing. So we used to have two teams on buys in the playoffs. So over the last four seasons since 2021, during wild card weekend home teams are 19 and five straight up 17 and seven against the spread. So that's 71%. But the reason I'm saying this is because I picked every single home team to win and cover except for the Pittsburgh Steelers. So if we sun run go four and oh or five and oh on the home teams winning Monday Night Football, it's not going to be six zero. So you know, you know it's not going to be six zero. So if I am just ice cold, you have to get the mortgage put on the Texans against the Steelers. The Monday Night Football streak will end if I if we see all these home teams lose to start the wild.
- [51:05]
A
Card weekend, those were our hard rock best bets of the week. Remember, Hard Rock bet has live in game betting so you're never too late to the action. Find a winner or grab that player prop you meant to play and live bet between snaps in just a few easy taps bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. So just because your team may be out of it, that doesn't mean you have to sit on the sidelines this postseason between same game parlays. Live betting a can't miss welcome offer and new promos dropping every day. Hard Rock Bet has you covered all postseason long. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable and bonus bets.
- [51:40]
C
Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by the Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and other states must be 21 + in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concern about gambling in Florida, call 1-833-PLAY-WISE in Indiana. If you are someone you know as a gambling problem wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia Erickson let's see if.
- [52:09]
A
We can kind of turn things around here in the postseason. We had a tough finish this season after starting strong, but we're we're ready for, for January here. We're going to, we're going to go we can't possibly go a combined 100 because we're going against each other, but let's, let's get some wins here on these games, especially the ones we agree on.
- [52:25]
B
Yeah, but it means that at least one of us will probably go 3 and 3 unless at least go.500 unless.
- [52:31]
A
We split these games that we disagree.
- [52:34]
B
On and we both show up three and three next week. Yeah, that might be worse than just losing out, right?
- [52:40]
A
It would at least be an improvement over what it was the week before. So we'll go ahead and wrap up on that. Thanks everybody for checking us out. For Erickson, I'm Ryan Wormley. We appreciate you tuning in and we'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts, at fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [53:33]
C
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- [54:01]
A
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