FantasyPros: Top NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Picks and Predictions (Ep. 1940)
Date: January 17, 2026
Hosts: Joey P. Zapia, Andrew Erickson
Main Theme:
The episode focuses on the top individual player prop bets for the upcoming NFL divisional round playoff games. Joey P. and Andrew Erickson dig into matchup analysis, statistics, and historical trends to give listeners actionable prop pick recommendations, plus some touchdown scorer longshots.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Introduction and Approach to Props
- Show Objective: Identify the best player prop bets for the NFL divisional playoffs, using the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for analysis and projections.
- Emphasis: Not just picking winners/losers, but player performances, leveraging advanced stats and trends.
[01:51] 1. RJ Harvey Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (Denver Broncos at Bills)
- Andrew’s Pick: RJ Harvey to go OVER 52.5 rushing yards.
- Justification:
- Bills have the 5th most rushing yards allowed per game.
- Harvey is the bell-cow since JK Dobbins' injury: at least 14 carries in 4 of last 5 games.
- Performed well against elite run defenses; averages over 7 YPC vs. Jaguars.
- Quote:
“RJ Harvey…has been seeing the majority of touches in the Broncos backfield…Given the matchup, given the volume RJ Harvey is seeing, he goes over 52 and a half rushing yards.”
— Andrew Erickson [01:51]
[03:07] 2. Christian McCaffrey Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (49ers at Seahawks)
- Joey’s Pick: Christian McCaffrey to go UNDER 56.5 rushing yards.
- Justification:
- Less effective without George Kittle blocking.
- Expectation: He’ll be more involved in the passing game.
- Seahawks stout against runs between the tackles.
- Quote:
“They’re going to use him in the passing game…Between the tackles in Seattle will be a challenge. So I’m taking the under.”
— Joey P. Zapia [03:07]
[03:39] 3. Brock Purdy Unders (49ers at Seahawks)
a. Under 230.5 Passing Yards (Joey)
- Seahawks defense expected to clamp down.
- 49ers missing Kittle, lowers passing upside.
- Likes the under on team total as well.
b. Under 34.5 Passing Attempts (Andrew)
- One of BettingPros’ most profitable prop markets.
- Purdy has been under this number in 8 of 10 games this year.
- When the 49ers are underdogs or without Kittle, Purdy’s attempts drop.
- Seahawks have only allowed one QB to top this mark lately.
- Quote:
“Under 34 and a half passing attempts…He hasn’t attempted more than 34 and a half since week four…The under has cashed in three of his last four games without Kittle.”
— Andrew Erickson [04:30]
[06:10] 4. Woody Marks Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (Texans at Patriots)
- Andrew’s Lock: Patriots’ run defense is elite when healthy (particularly Milton Williams, Robert Spillane, Tunga).
- When all starters in: no RB has topped 60 yards vs. NE.
- Texans may become one-dimensional, forced to pass, especially with Nico Collins out.
- Jawar Jordan returns, more RB competition.
- Quote:
“This is my stone-cold lock…Patriots, when healthy, you cannot run on this defense…Woody Marks gets totally neutralized.”
— Andrew Erickson [06:10]
[08:29] Undertaker Parlay
- Joey pairs his favorite under (Bills/Broncos 1st half total under) with Woody Marks under for a +232 parlay, dubbed the “Undertaker Parlay.”
[09:30] 5. Stefon Diggs Under 48.5 Receiving Yards
- Joey’s Pick: Tough matchup vs. CB Stingley.
- Thinks Diggs gets a big catch but doesn’t top 50 yards.
[10:00] 6. Drake Maye Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (Patriots QB)
- Both Hosts Agree: Maye is mobile and will scramble vs. Houston’s strong pass rush.
- Historically, Texans have issues with scrambling QBs (dead last in EPA allowed per scramble).
- Playoff QBs use legs more: Maye went for a season-high 66 yards last week.
- Has hit this over in 3 of last 5, including matchups with top defenses.
- Quote:
“In the playoffs, QBs run more because…we have to win this game…He’s hit the over on 35.5 in three straight at home.”
— Andrew Erickson [11:33]
[12:53] 7. Puka Nacua Over 98.5 Receiving Yards (Rams)
- Joey’s Pick: High line but thinks Nacua easily clears it.
- Bears’ defense leaky, Rams pass to keep up.
- Only way he fails is “Puka Nacua Blue Tent” (injury miss).
[13:56] 8. Luther Burden Over 2.5 Receptions (Bears)
- Andrew’s Pick: Slot WR heavily targeted, faces weak Rams slot coverage.
- 9 straight games with at least 3 catches, even efficient with Rome Odunze in lineup.
- 5 targets in the first half last week.
- Quote:
“For me, two and a half receptions was just too low for a guy that’s hit this in nine straight games. So take the over.”
— Andrew Erickson [13:56]
[15:19] 9. Touchdown Scorer Calls
Joey’s Picks
- Josh Allen anytime TD (-105).
- Bo Nix anytime TD (+310).
- “Going with QBs here this week. Those are my favorite two.”
Andrew’s Picks
- Kyren Williams anytime TD (+125): Workhorse RB, high red-zone role, weak Bears defense.
- Keon Coleman anytime TD (+500): Bills depleted WR corps, positive contested catch ability, history vs. Broncos.
- “Sometimes you gotta get nutty!” — Andrew [15:59]
TD Scorer Banter
- Joey teases Brandon Cooks as a wild card to ruin Andrew’s Coleman bet.
- Discuss the longshot/fun nature of Red Zone targets for backup Bills WRs.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
“If you put my favorite bet of the week there with your favorite bet of the week…The Undertaker Parlay is +232. All Undertaker all the time.”
— Joey P. Zapia [08:00] -
“This is my stone cold lock of the week. Woody Marks under 60 and a half rushing yards. People need to realize…you can’t run on this defense.”
— Andrew Erickson [06:10] -
“Dead last this year in EPA allowed per quarterback scramble…That’s what quarterbacks have to do to move the ball against the Houston Texans.”
— Andrew Erickson [11:33] -
“Sometimes you got to get nutty here…Keon Coleman is going to by default have to play more in this matchup…and I think he’s going to get some opportunities.”
— Andrew Erickson [15:59] -
“Puka Nacua Blue Tent scenario is also very much there…But this is the playoffs and all bets are off and all bets are on for Puka Nacua.”
— Joey P. Zapia [12:53]
Timestamps of Key Segments
- 01:51 — RJ Harvey OVER 52.5 rushing yards (Broncos)
- 03:07 — Christian McCaffrey UNDER 56.5 rushing yards (49ers)
- 03:39–04:30 — Brock Purdy passing unders (49ers)
- 06:10 — Woody Marks UNDER 60.5 rushing yards (Texans/Patriots)
- 08:29 — Undertaker Parlay mention
- 09:30 — Stefon Diggs UNDER 48.5 receiving yards
- 10:00/11:33 — Drake Maye OVER 33.5 rushing yards (Patriots)
- 12:53 — Puka Nacua OVER 98.5 receiving yards (Rams)
- 13:56 — Luther Burden OVER 2.5 receptions (Bears)
- 15:19–18:00 — Touchdown scorer picks and rationale
Summary Table: Host Picks at a Glance
| Host | Prop Pick | Over/Under | Reason | |------|-----------|------------|--------| | Andrew | RJ Harvey: 52.5 rush yards | Over | Bills poor run D, Harvey bell-cow | | Joey | Christian McCaffrey: 56.5 rush yards | Under | No Kittle, more passing, tough matchup | | Joey | Brock Purdy: 230.5 pass yards | Under | Missing Kittle, strong Seattle D | | Andrew | Brock Purdy: 34.5 pass attempts | Under | Historic tendencies, team scenario | | Andrew | Woody Marks: 60.5 rush yards | Under | Pats D strong when healthy, inconsistent workload | | Joey | Stefon Diggs: 48.5 rec yards | Under | Tough CB matchup (Stingley) | | Both | Drake Maye: 33.5 rush yards | Over | Mobile QB, Texans weak vs. rushing QBs | | Joey | Puka Nacua: 98.5 rec yards | Over | Volume funnel, Rams will need to throw | | Andrew | Luther Burden: 2.5 recs | Over | Slot volume, consistent production | | Joey | TD: Josh Allen, Bo Nix | -- | QB rushing upside | | Andrew | TD: Kyren Williams, Keon Coleman | -- | Red zone usage, WR depth/injury |
Final Thoughts
- Heavy analytical focus: hosts use past game logs, matchups, and team trends.
- Plenty of actionable prop bet recommendations, with hosts agreeing on high confidence picks and framing some as "locks" or "layups."
- Energetic, banter-filled delivery, with a mix of mainstream and bold, longshot prop/touchdown calls.
- Best for fantasy and player props bettors wanting deeper rationale, not just straight picks.
- Recommended to check the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for further projections and data.