← FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Top NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Picks and Predictions (Ep. 1940)
00:18:38
Loading summary
Transcript37 lines
- [00:00]
Ad Council Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
- [00:04]
Tide Commercial Voice
Did you know Tide has been upgraded to provide an even better clean in cold water. Tide is specifically designed to fight any stain you throw at it, even in cold butter. Yep. Chocolate ice cream. Sure thing. Barbecue sauce. Tide's got you covered. You don't need to use warm water. Additionally, Tide pods let you confidently fight tough stains with new coldzyme technology. Just remember, if it's got to be clean, it's got to be tied.
- [00:35]
Joey P. Zapia
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place your bets. This is me, Joey P. Joe P. Zepia, and this is BP NFL. It's time to look for the props. That's right, the individuals in the division round of the playoffs that are going to cash for us this week. Andrew Erickson. I just put aside all the best bets for the games. Now we're going to dig into the players. I know Andrew's always got some great stats for you. Make sure you subscribe to the channel, subscribe to the feed, download the Betting Pros app. Bet smarter, not harder. Don't be a tool. Use the tools. That's what we want you to do. Including the prop bet cheat sheet, by the way. Up 94 units, 57%. Oh my goodness, what a year it's been for the prop bet cheat sheet. Really good there. So make sure you're using the tools, man. This is what we're talking about all year long. So we've got some bets for you we've laid out. And don't forget right here on the channel at 4:15 6 Saturday. Scott Bogman, Joe P. Zapia, Bills, Broncos, Knicks, Allen. All the big names are all going to be here and we're going to be walking you through some in game live. Give you our favorite bets plus all the in game live stuff. So make sure you check us out here on the channel. Subscribe to the channel. Ring the bell till that goes ding so you don't miss it too. So you get that little alert. That's perfect. Andrew Erickson, I know you've been digging deep into the mines here. Let's get your free first prop bet for Division Round 2 of the NFL playoffs.
- [01:52]
Andrew Erickson
Looking at the Denver Broncos backfield, RJ Harvey is going to go over 52 1/2 rushing yards. This one's not super complicated. But Joe, the Bills are a terrible run defense. Fifth most rushing yards allowed per game this season. Travis ETN and the Jaguars were running all over them. And then Liam Cohen just decided to stop running the football against the Bills last Week, not really sure why. Didn't help them win the game. Obviously they didn't win the game. I don't think Sean Payton is going to overthink this here, especially based on Bo Nick's up and down play in the second half of the season. So I think they exposed the biggest weakness of the Bill Stevens and that's running the football. You look at RJ Harvey again, he's been up and down since JK Dobbins got hurt week 11, but he has been seeing the majority of the touches in the Broncos backfield. He's at least 14 carries in four of his last five games. And I would say he has run into some of the tougher defensive matchups when it comes to run defenses. He's faced the Chiefs a couple different times, the Chargers, some solid run defenses where against like the Las Vegas Raiders and the Green Bay Packers. He's had bigger games going over 50 rushing yards. He also averaged over 7 yards per carry against the Jaguars, who we all know is one of the best run defenses in the NFL. So I think just given the matchup, given the amount of volume that RJ Harvey is seeing, he goes over 52 and a half rushing yards on divisional card weekend.
- [03:08]
Joey P. Zapia
All right, so over there for RJ Harvey, 52 and a half. I'm going to start here mine with Christian McCaffrey rushing yards under 56 and a half. That's right under. Why? Because they're going to use the in the passing game. That's where he's going to have to work when George Kittle is not out there blocking Christian McCaffrey also not as good out there running the football. And George Cattle won't be around for quite some time. So Tom just will be taking over for him. But still it's different thing. I mean, George Kittle is such a superior blocker out there and to have him out there on the edge and now you're not going to have him. And I also think from a game script standpoint too, what you want to do is you want to stop Christian McCaffrey. So you, you're. You're not going to ever stop him from catching the football in space. They're going to find clever ways to do that. That's what Kyle Shanahan gets paid to do. But running the football between the tackles in Seattle I think is going to be a challenge for Christian McCaffrey. So I'm going to take his under. Don't tell Welsh I did this. He's going to be very upset there. So let's go to pick number two here. Both of us have Brock Purdy bets here. Mine is brock Purdy under 230 and a half passing yards again. I think that Seattle defense is going to really tighten up on him. You're losing another big piece in George Kittle. Purdy's played really well down the stretch save for one game against the Seattle Seahawks and now he gets the Seahawks again. I like the team total the under here for the San Francisco 49ers as well. Now you are also into a Brock Purdy bet. Let's talk about your version of it Andrew.
- [04:30]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, this one comes courtesy of the prop bet cheat sheet. 5 star bet. 1 of the most profitable markets in the prop bet cheat sheet this year has been on passing attempts. I've talked a lot about passing attempts on this show. We've week to week and most of the time we've come out in the green. So under 34 and a half passing attempts for Brock Purdy. If you look at him on the prop Bet analyzer you pull up his pass attempts prop it's all red Joe. Like there's not a lot of greens when it comes to him going over 34 and a half pass attempts. He's been under this in eight of 10 games this season, including both games when the 49ers were listed as underdogs. He hasn't attempted more than 34 and a half passing attempts since week four and that was the last game he played before his second injury when he missed an extended period of time. The under has cashed in three of his last four games played without George Kittle in the lineup for the last four. Four of the last five quarterbacks to face the Seattle Seahawks have not surpassed 30 passing attempts and in week one Purdy did go over this number against Seattle. But in three of the four games he has played against Seattle the last two seasons he has finished with 28 or fewer pass attempts. So I think that the 49ers are going to get truck sticked here and I think that par is not going to have enough completions to have have this a tepes number go over 34 and a half.
- [05:42]
Joey P. Zapia
Don't forget everybody too Prop bet cheat sheet is available as Andrew pointed out and we kind of popped at the beginning of the show. Go to bettingpros.com props. You'll see all of the prop bets for the week, all the projections, the variants, the best place to get your wagers in as well. So make sure you use the prop bet cheat sheet next on our List here. Pick number three, Andrew Erickson. You're going with Woody Mark. So we've moved on to Houston and New England. Let's talk about that contest and what Woody Marks can do against that Pat's defense.
- [06:11]
Andrew Erickson
If we did a hard rock best bet for player props, this would be mine. This is my stone cold lock of the week. Woody marks under 60 and a half rushing yards. People need to realize that when the Patriots have all their guys back on defense between Milton Williams, Robert Spillane and Tunga, their defensive tackle, you can't run on this defense. You, you look at the first 11 weeks through the season when all of those guys were healthy and in the lineup, no running back that the Patriots had faced had gone over 60 rushing yards. So you look over the last month or so and you're seeing oh like these guys are popping off for some solid games. Well that's because they haven't had all their players. Again, 12 games with Milton Williams in the lineup, just 56.3 rushing yards allowed per game, 3.2 yards per carry. Five games without Williams and Spillane and some of these other guys missing time. 127 rushing yards allowed per game. So this is also going back to why like the Patriots, I think it can make the Texans one dimensional and force them into a drop back passing game without Nico Collins. So then it's Christian Kirk, Jaylen Noel and Jaden Higgins that are going to have to beat the Patriots to get the Texans to win on the road with an upset. So I think that the run game for the Texans gets totally neutralized here by the Patriots. Tough front and Woody Marks has hardly been consistent. I know he's coming off a monster game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I think that just overinflated his number to this 60 and a half rushing yards mark. So I am slamming the under here. Jawar Jordan's also expected to come back for this game. He's actually been under this number in two of the three games when Jordan has also been healthy in the lineup. So in the wildcat round, the Chargers running backs between Armerian Hampton, Kamani Vidal, 12 carries for 30 yards, 2.7 yards per carry when all those guys were healthy. And Tonga, I didn't even play last week like he should be back in the lineup. So yeah, I think this is an easy one for me.
- [07:54]
Joey P. Zapia
I like it and it's ballsy too because Woody Marks had a pretty good game, you know, against the Pittsburgh Steelers there a lot, a lot of effort there from him. So look, the New England Patriots defense against the run this year was very good for a long time. Then it faded a little bit. But as you pointed out, it had to do a little bit with some of those injuries that they did suffer at some point. I'm just throwing this out there too. If you put my favorite bet of the week there with your favorite bet of the week. So the under in the first half total for Bills and Broncos and then Woody Marks under the Undertaker parlay is plus 232. All Undertaker all the time. Just saying.
- [08:29]
Andrew Erickson
Love that.
- [08:30]
Joey P. Zapia
There you go, there you go. And of course make sure you place that bet over at Hard Rock Bet. That's where we want you to go right now. And of course Miami is in the big dance for the national championship and Hard Rock Bet is giving you a 10 bonus bet to get in on the action. If you're watching the game in Miami, you can go to Hard Rock Cafe in Miami, Duffy's North Miami Beach, American Social and Batch Brickle. Hard Rock Bet is dropping ten dollar bonus bets there for you and you can turn that $10 bonus bet into a big win with an SGP Same game parlay in the Natty. Or you could spread it out if you want to as well. Fly is going crazy right now with the Hurricanes back in a national championship. Very exciting times. It's like the late 80s, early 90s all over again. And don't forget, you can be a winner too if you just place your five dollar bet. If it hits, you get 150 in bonus bets plus your winnings only at Hard Rock bet. And of course all the parlays are going on as well. And of course you can not only do SGPs but there's promos every single day. But you can't get the promos if you don't download Hard Rock bet. So download Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook right now onto your phone and start betting today. Payable and bonus bets Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in other states. Must be 21 plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply. Concern about gambling in Florida. Call 1-833-PLAY-WISE in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia New Year same extra value meals at McDonald's. So now get two snack wraps plus fries and a medium soft drink for just $8 for a limited time only. Prices and participation may vary. Prices may be higher in Hawaii, Alaska and California. And for delivery. All right, next up here, Stefan Diggs. I know, Andrew, you said Stefan Diggs revenge. He loves to show up for these games and he did play with the Texans for a cup of coffee a couple years ago. But he's got Stingley here on the other side. He's just really good. He's just. He's just really, really good. So 48 and a half is the number four, Stefan Diggs. So I'm gonna go under that. I do think he has a big catch in this game and a big moment that fires everybody up, but I just don't think he's going over 50 yards in this contest. I'd be surprised if it happened. So this is actually one of my favorite unders in a game that I think is going to be an under that I think it's gonna be a one point game that the Pats will find a way to win. And they're gonna find a way to win because of my fourth bet. And guess what? Andrew Erickson and I are holding hands on this one. It's drake may over 33 and a half rushing yards. We discussed this at length on the Best Bet show about Drake May being very different from Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers sat in that pocket and took a ton of sacks against the Houston Texans pass rush. Drake May is not going to be that guy. He's much more mobile. He's going to break out and run. We saw it against the Chargers last week. We've seen it all year long. He can make plays with his legs. So Houston Texans defense is going to get worn out a little bit here and I think at the end of the day they get tired in that fourth quarter and that becomes the difference in this game. So I like the over here for Drake May and you like it too, Andrew. What do you want to add to that? Drake may over 33 and a half rushing yard love.
- [11:33]
Andrew Erickson
The Texans ranked dead last this year in EPA allowed per quarterback scramble. Basically they ranked top 10 in every defensive category except against quarterback scrambling because that's what teams have to do. That's what hap. That's what quarterbacks have to do to move the ball against the Houston Texans because they're so good everywhere else. The pass rush is going to be humming, but Drake May is going to make plays with his legs here. He did this in the first matchup last year against Houston. He had 38 rushing yards against these similar Pass rushers Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter, like those guys were humming around, humming on Drake May. And that was against a much worse offensive line for the Patriots which is significantly improved here in 2025. It's no coincidence that last week, his first playoff game, he rushes for a season high 66 rushing yards. We see this all the time with quarterbacks. Oh, playoffs are here. Let's run more because there is no tomorrow. We have to use our legs now. We can't worry about staying healthy because we have to win this game. And the last time he rushed for over 50 yards was the last time he faced a top 10 defense earlier year the Cleveland Browns in week eight. So when it is top 10 defenses, especially ones that are tougher when it comes to a pass rush, they have good secondaries. You're just going to see quarterbacks more likely to take off and run. We've seen that with Drake May. He's hit the over on 35 and a half rushing yards in three of his last five games including three straight overs at home. So yeah, I think this one is a layup, Joe.
- [12:54]
Joey P. Zapia
All right, so a layup there. Which brings us to our fifth pick here and it's a very high number. So bear with me, everybody. But it's the pukinakua show. Everybody. 98 and a half receiving yards. Guess what? He's going to go over a hundred. That's. It's. It's just whether or not he goes over 100. He's going to go over 100. He's the guy. He's where the offense funnels through. And I know the Bears will score some points on the Rams because the Rams just let everybody score on them all the time. And I'm sick to death of it. But that means Pukinaku is going to have to get pushed and that means that Matthew Stafford is going to continue have to throw the football. So keep give me Pukinakua with a very high number. I know it makes me uneasy too. I'm with you. But I do think we get the over this number. And I think he's well into the hundreds just because of how this offense works. The only way he doesn't get this is the classic Puka Nakua Blue 10 scenario which is also very much in there too. And if you want to fade it because of that, I ain't mad at you. I understand. But this is the playoffs and all bets are off and all bets are on for Pukinakua. For me, going over this number, your last bet here for Week number two of the playoffs in the NFL.
- [13:56]
Andrew Erickson
Andrew gonna go with Luther Burden over two and a half catches. So I was very high on Jalen Coker last week. Not as high as I should have been, apparently, because you crushed.
- [14:06]
Joey P. Zapia
It was awesome.
- [14:08]
Andrew Erickson
Last week he went absolutely nuclear. I was taking, oh over three and a half catches. I. I kind of like this one. It's plus money. He had a billion catches in that game, seemingly. But it was two straight games where he was heavily involved as a target for the Carolina Panthers against a Rams defense that has been had against slot players. Who runs the majority of his routes from the slot? Among the Bears wide receivers, it's Luther Burden. He ran 51% of his routes from the slot last week. Cut three balls for 42 yards on seven targets. He had five targets in the first half. Luther Burden has at least three catches in nine straight games, including his last five games with Roma Dunes in the lineup. So even with the Dunes a back, we didn't see Burden's targets and catches fall off too dramatically. So again, I'm not expecting a Jalen Coker type of blowup just because there are a little bit more mouths to feed in this Bears passing game. But the Rams secondary can be had. Like we saw Bryce Young have two of his most successful games against the Los Angeles Rams defense with his wide receivers. I think Caleb can have some success when he drops back the throw, specifically when he targets the slot and and specifically when he targets Luther Burton. So for me, two and a half receptions was just too low for a guy that's hit this in nine straight games. So take the over.
- [15:19]
Joey P. Zapia
All right, let's call some touchdowns here. The touchdown score report is available@bettingpros.com Touchdown if you're looking for an edge in touchdown bets, the touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bets, odds projections and help identify the very best in anytime touchdown bets. So go check it out again. Bettingpros.com Touchdown. I'm going with the QBs here. Josh Allen -105. Okay, that one's not super exciting, but it's gonna pay. And then the other one, Same game. Bo Nicks plus 3:10. Yeah, let's go. Bo Nick's rushing in a touchdown for himself. So the QB's getting into it to kick us off here. Those are my favorite two touchdown bets of the week. Andrew, what do you have for the people? Because one of them I think is nuts. I just want to put that out there.
- [15:59]
Andrew Erickson
Hey, that's. It's gambling, isn't it? Sometimes you got to get nutty here.
- [16:03]
Joey P. Zapia
Joe, when you have Keon Coleman involved. Yes, yes, it's very much.
- [16:07]
Andrew Erickson
Okay, well, I'm gonna, I'm gonna try to sell you my pitch, but we'll start with Kyron Williams first. I think that this is just a good value here at +125, but the Rams are favored. Kyron Williams ranks first in the NFL in rushing success rate against a terrible Bears defense. The last time he played outdoors on the road in a weather game, Kyron Williams had 19 carries for 106 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bears run defense is trash. Kyren third red zone opportunities per game this season, and it's plus 125. So I think that Kyro's easily going to score in this game. And I just love the odds here. Now, Keon Coleman. All right, Joe, you buckled in? Are you ready for this pitch?
- [16:46]
Joey P. Zapia
Here I am. I'm ready for it.
- [16:48]
Andrew Erickson
Okay, so Keon Coleman is going to have to play more in this game because the Bills just put half of their wide receivers that already weren't that good on injured reserve. Gabe Davis is out with the torn acl. Tyrell Shavers is out with the torn acl. So Keon Coleman is going to by default have to play more in this specific matchup. And I think that he's going to get some opportunities with some 50, 50 balls because of his contested catch ability, some deep targets against a really strong Bronco secondary. Again, you can't, you're not going to get open against most of these guys anyway. So, hey, this is where Keon Coleman's skill set actually can be benefit where, yeah, certain is all over him. Well, Keon Coleman, this is where he can actually take advantage with him going up trying to get the football. And last year when these teams played the Broncos against the Buffalo Bills, Keon Coleman caught a two point conversion. So they have on tape him scoring in the end zone against this Broncos defense and this Broncos secondary. So I think that he needs to step up here. 5 to 1, plus 500. Again, this isn't a minus 115, minus 105 bet for Keon Coleman. It's 5 to 1. So it's a fun touchdown bet because I think that, hey, Keon Coleman's going to be out there. Josh Allen's going to score points. And I don't think the Broncos are going to be prepared necessarily for Keon Coleman to get targets at all because again, Joe, he hasn't really got that many targets this season.
- [18:03]
Joey P. Zapia
I got two words for you Andrew Erickson. Brandon Cooks. That's right. Brandon Cooks is going to ruin all your Keon Coleman. So I wonder what his touchdown equity. Now I want to look and see what that is because which Bill receiver.
- [18:16]
Andrew Erickson
Is going to catch a touchdown? Because it's going to.
- [18:19]
Joey P. Zapia
Oh, there it is. There it is.
- [18:21]
Andrew Erickson
Same odds. Yeah.
- [18:22]
Joey P. Zapia
Hey, hey. Not bad. Josh Allen to score the first touchdown of the game plus 650 in that game. Lots of fun stuff going on. Lots of fun touchdown calls. So if you want to juice that Josh Allen want a little bit more of mine, you can do that. If you want to go crazy town with Keon Coleman, go for it. That's what it's all about. Having fun. Download the Betting Pros App and remember 4:15 Eastern Time, Bill's Broncos Pizza, Pia Bogman, Alan Nix, all the big names will be here breaking that game down for you. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for Andrew Erickson. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids. Enjoy the playoffs.
- [18:57]
Betting Pros Podcast Outro Host
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and TikTok betting pros and Instagram betting pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com bettingpro praise.
- [19:27]
Ed Helms
Hey everyone, it's Ed Helms and I'm.
- [19:30]
Joey P. Zapia
Cal Penn and we are the hosts.
- [19:32]
Ed Helms
Of Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club. This week on the podcast I am talking to film and TV critic, radio and podcast host and Harry Potter super fan Rhianna Dillon to discuss Audible's full cast adaptation of Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. What moments in this audiobook capture the feeling of the magical world best for you or just stood out the most?
- [20:00]
Rhianna Dillon
I always loved reading about the Quidditch matches and I think the audio really gets it because it just plunges you right into the stands. You have the crowd sounds like all around you is surround sound, especially if you're listening in headphones.
- [20:16]
Ed Helms
Listen to Hearsay, the Audible and iHeart Audio Book Club on the iHeartradio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [20:29]
Nav Green
This show contains information subject to but not limited to personal takes, rumors, not so accurate stats, and plenty more. What's up man? It's your boy Nav Green from the Broken Play podcast. Look, it's the end of the season. The playoffs are here. But guess what? It ain't the end of your season. You can always tune in with Broken Play Podcast with Nav Green on the Black Effect Podcast Network. Not a team who ain't going to the playoffs. The Chief it's time to rebuild. Listen to Broken Play with Nav Green from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [21:01]
Ad Council Announcer
The more you listen to your kids, the closer you'll be. So we asked kids, what do you want your parents to hear?
- [21:08]
Joey P. Zapia
I feel sometimes that I'm not listened to. I would just want you to listen to me more often and evaluate situations with me and lead me towards success.
- [21:17]
Ad Council Announcer
Listening is a form of love. Find resources to help you support your kids and their emotional well being@sounditouttogether.org that's sounditouttogether.org brought to you by the ad council and pivotal this is an iheart podcast. Guaranteed human.