FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Top Predictions & Prop Bets for Super Bowl LX (Ep. 1951)

Date: February 4, 2026
Host: Ryan Wormley
Guest: Andrew Erickson

Episode Overview

In this Super Bowl LX edition, Ryan Wormley and Andrew Erickson break down their top predictions and favorite prop bets for the championship match-up between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. The episode focuses on in-depth analysis of team strengths, weaknesses, betting angles, and player performance, blending sharp fantasy/football insights with personal fan perspectives and practical betting advice.

Main Theme

How should fans and bettors approach the Seahawks (-4.5) vs Patriots, given the season's unusual storylines and the elite defensive play-calling on both sides? Ryan and Andrew explore the spread, total, and key player props, aiming to help listeners make informed, strategic decisions in the biggest NFL game of the year.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Super Bowl Matchup & Personal Excitement

• Unusual Contenders: Both the Seahawks and Patriots entered the season as major longshots (60:1+ odds to win the Super Bowl). The hosts reiterate this is a rare occurrence, as neither was considered a likely champion by the betting public or analysts pre-season.
• Patriots as Underdogs: Andrew, as a Patriots fan, is "really excited" for the game, embracing the underdog narrative.

  "So many of these Super Bowls we've been to, it’s Belichick, it’s Brady... but this is uncharted waters with Mike Vrabel and Drake May." — Andrew (03:29)

• Watch Party Plans: Andrew prefers small, focused watch parties when his team is playing, to help manage nerves and emotions.

  "I like to limit the amount of people I’m watching it with because I like to be honed." — Andrew (04:37)

2. Pressure, Expectations & Year-Ahead Analysis

• Low Pressure, High Upside: Both see the Patriots' appearance as "gravy" — ahead of schedule for the new Vrabel/Drake May era.
• Both Teams Feel 'Unexpected':

  "I mean, both of these teams... were listed longer than 60:1 odds to win this." — Andrew (06:27)
  "I did really like these teams relative to their odds. I did not like them to make the Super Bowl." — Ryan (07:30)

3. Against the Spread Predictions (Seahawks -4.5)

Andrew: Patriots +4.5

• Trends Favor Underdogs: Last five Super Bowls have seen underdog covers straight up.
• Scheme Matchup: Patriots match up better against Seattle than L.A. Defensively, their strength up the middle could limit Ken Walker and force Seattle to rely on the pass.
• JSN Matchup: Christian Gonzalez limits JSN (but can’t "shut him down").

  "If they can keep him out of the end zone... I think they would take that." — Andrew (08:37)

• Defensive Paths: Barmore, Williams, Spillane can disrupt Darnold. Patriots’ offense can hit deep plays; Seattle’s secondary is vulnerable to deep shots.
• Pick: "Ultimately, I think that they’re going to win this game... I like the Patriots with the points." — Andrew (08:37–12:31)

Ryan: Seahawks -4.5

• Game Flow: If it’s close, he expects Patriots to win; if it’s not close, Seahawks could win by a touchdown or more.
• Defensive Dominance: Seahawks’ defense (since Thanksgiving) has been dominant against everyone except the Rams.

  "This defense is very, very good to the point where I’m not looking at what Matthew Stafford did and saying, 'Oh, this is the path for Drake May to replicate it.'" — Ryan (12:31)

• Patriots’ Soft Schedule: Playoff wins came against backup/struggling QBs and shaky offenses; Drake May hasn’t excelled against strong defenses.
• Matchup to Watch: Seahawks’ passing offense (esp. JSN) vs. Patriots’ pass defense is the decisive battle.
• Pick: "I’m reasonably confident in both run defenses... the one that I’m less confident in is the Patriots passing defense against the Seattle passing offense. And it’s a matchup where I am going to give Seattle the edge." — Ryan (12:31–17:37)

Outcome

• Both agree: Seahawks win big or Patriots squeak it out. Spread may not reflect the likeliest outcomes.

  "Seattle blows out the Patriots or the Patriots win by field goal. Right. That's kind of how I see this game." — Andrew (17:37)

4. Over/Under (Total: 45.5)

Both pick the under.

Ryan's Rationale

• Coaches’ Defensive Genius: Emphasis on Mike Macdonald (Seahawks) as a 'defensive McVay,' a savant with extra time to prepare for a young QB in Drake May. Patriots also have defensive-minded HC.
• Offensive Struggles: Patriots offense has underperformed vs. good defenses in playoffs.
• Star Power:

  "Right now I think he (Macdonald) is head and shoulders ahead of even the second-best defensive mind in the sport." — Ryan (24:05)

• Analogy: Cites last year’s Eagles/Chiefs dynamic — better team vs. better QB, siding again with the more complete roster/coaching.

Andrew’s Rationale

• Patriots Have Struggled Offensively: Averaging under 16 ppg in the playoffs vs. top-10 defenses.
• History: McDaniels as Patriots OC—Super Bowl first halves have been slow/low-scoring.
• First Half Under Favorite: Targets under 23.5 in the first half as his official play.

  "Two defensive-minded head coaches... I think the first quarter we could look up, it could be 0-0, or 3-0." — Andrew (28:52)

• JSN to Be Contained by Gonzalez, But Not Shut Down: Prop bets should recognize the volume but expect the Patriots to focus on limiting the big play and red-zone targets.

Both consider coaching distractions (Clint Kubiak’s pending Raiders job) to be a small, additional negative for offense.

5. Player Prop Bets

Ryan's Top Props

• Jackson Smith-Njigba OVER 6.5 receptions

  "He is the best player on the offense... unless Sam Darnold completely falls apart, they're going to get him the ball.” — Ryan (41:10)

• Drake May OVER 37.5 rushing yards (backup pick)

  Emphasizes May’s acceleration in big games and Seattle’s vulnerability to mobile QBs.

• Drake May as Game's Leading Rusher (longshot at +500 to +600):

  "That’s a fun bet to sweat." — Ryan (45:27)

Andrew's Top Props

• TreVeyon Henderson OVER 0.5 receptions
  • Seattle allows most RB catches per game. Patriots will need to move the ball with check-downs.

  "...all he has to do is catch one pass, right, and we’re gonna hit the over here." — Andrew (46:40)

  • When Patriots are underdogs, Henderson is 6-0 to the over (receptions).
  • Potential for more: longshot for 15+ or 30+ yards at high odds.

Notable Quotes

• "[JSN] gets over 6.5 receptions most games. ... He is the best player on the offense." — Ryan (41:10)
• "I like TreVeyon Henderson to be a little more involved here... all he has to do is catch one pass." — Andrew (46:40)

6. Hard Rock Best Bets

• Andrew: TreVeyon Henderson OVER 0.5 receptions (minus odds, but “not drinking the juice if you win”).
• Ryan: Under 45.5 total points (strongest conviction bet).

Important Segment Timestamps

• Personal Super Bowl Plans & Fan Perspective: 01:08 – 06:27
• Spread Analysis & Team Matchup Deep Dive: 08:37 – 17:37
• Total (Over/Under) Discussion: 24:05 – 34:31
• Prop Bets Segment: 41:10 – 49:07
• Best Bets Summary: 50:18

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Super Bowl Underdogs:
  "Last five Super Bowls, the underdogs have covered straight up." — Andrew (08:37)

• Consensus & Public Fade:
  "It is very tempting to say like, you know, we should be fading the public here... it feels like people are usually wrong when the consensus goes in that direction." — Ryan (24:05)

• Coaching Savant Praise:
  "I think Mike Macdonald is like the chosen one on the defensive side of the ball." — Ryan (24:05)

• First Half Under and Slow Starts:
  "I think the first quarter we could look up, it could be 0-0, or 3-0. A lot of Patriots Super Bowls start out really, really slow.“ — Andrew (28:52)

• Prop Betting Satisfaction:
  "All he has to do is catch one pass, right and we're gonna hit the over here." — Andrew (46:40)

• Playoff Dynasty on the Line?:
  "[Vrabel and May] as a super bowl contending combo for a decade... this is probably not going to be the best team of the Drake May/Vrabel era..." — Ryan (05:18)

Final Thoughts

• Ryan finishes wishing Andrew (as a Patriots fan) “enjoy the game, but I hope the Patriots lose—not in such a devastating fashion it ruins your will to live.” (53:53)
• The episode strikes a balance between fan excitement and sharp, actionable betting/fantasy analysis.
• Both see the Super Bowl as a "defensive chess match" more than an offensive shootout, favoring the under and defensive-minded props.
• Listeners get both “safe” and “fun” prop ideas, plus a thorough look at the game’s key tactical matchups.

Summary Table

| Topic | Ryan's Pick | Andrew's Pick | |------------------------------|----------------------------|-------------------------------| | Spread (SEA -4.5) | Seahawks | Patriots | | Total (45.5) | Under | Under/First Half Under | | Hard Rock Best Bet | Under 45.5 | Henderson OVER 0.5 rec. | | Player Prop | JSN OVER 6.5 receptions | Henderson OVER 0.5 rec. | | Longshot Prop | Drake May lead rusher (+) | (Encourages longer odds for May) |

For more insights and to hear final thoughts and deeper prop discussion, check out the full episode.