FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Episode: Top Predictions & Prop Bets for the Conference Championship Round (Ep. 1943)
Date: January 21, 2026
Hosts: Ryan Wormley (“A”), Andrew Erickson (“B”)
Episode Overview
This episode breaks down the Conference Championship games in depth, focusing on:
- Against the spread, total, and player prop predictions for Patriots-Broncos & Rams-Seahawks
- Rationale and statistical context for each pick
- Memorable moments and notable quotes from the previous playoff weekend
- Discussion of officiating controversies and betting trends
- Side discussions about rooting interests and Super Bowl matchups
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Reflecting on Divisional Round Experiences (00:00 – 03:02)
- Erickson shares his excitement at attending the Patriots’ AFC Championship-clinching win at Gillette Stadium
- How growing up with season tickets made this one especially sweet.
- Ryan relates his less fortunate playoff attendance as a Ravens fan, referencing the 2019 Titans loss.
- Both agree the divisional round slate was a “mixed bag” but memorable, with sloppiness and wild weather impacting play.
- Erickson notes his 3-1 record on last week's picks, with strong results targeting the Rams defense via slot receivers.
2. Patriots at Broncos: Spread, Total, and Prop Bets
Spread Picks & Rationale (03:02 – 10:48)
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Both hosts are strongest on DENVER +4.5.
- Ryan:
“This was the easy one for me...I do think the Patriots end up winning, but I just think it's going to be a lot closer than people expect.” (04:54)
- Erickson agrees; questions if Bo Nix is truly worth a 6-point line swing.
“That's telling me that some people are weighing Bo Nix six points against the spread and that just seems like way too many points...Ultimately, what losing Bo Nix costs the Broncos is not covering the spread, but maybe losing in crunch time. But +4.5? Too much.” (06:52)
- Ryan:
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Behind the line move:
- With Bo Nix, lookahead line was Broncos -1.5.
- With Stidham, Patriots favored by 4.5–5.5.
- Both hosts feel the quarterback loss is exaggerated in the odds, citing Bo Nix’s mediocre regular-season numbers and Denver’s consistent underdog success.
Statistical & Betting Trends
- Broncos: Undefeated as underdogs against the spread this season; 7 of last 8 ATS at home vs. winning teams.
- Patriots: Offensive line has struggled vs. top defenses when on the road.
- Key stat: Both teams allow under 20 points per game defensively.
Total Picks & Rationale (10:48 – 22:50)
- Consensus: Under 42.5 points
- Ryan:
“If Bo Nix was playing, I would have taken the under on 42.5...Frankly, with Stidham in the game, I'm surprised this number was in the 40s. I thought it might be like 38 or 39.” (15:58)
- Erickson:
“The Patriots have not played a single top 10 defense on the road this season...And bad offensive lines don’t travel. Denver leads the NFL in sacks and sack percentage.” (13:49, 14:03)
- Ryan:
- Offensive matchup notes:
- Patriots offense regressed vs. top ten defenses (Browns, Chargers, Texans).
- Drake May—6 fumbles in last two games.
- Denver’s defense: Elite pass rush, especially at home.
- Broncos likely to “muck it up” and keep scoring low.
- Noted that both hosts “see this game annoyingly similarly.” (22:50)
Player Prop Bets
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Ryan: RJ Harvey OVER 2.5 receptions (and leans over 18.5 receiving yards).
“Sean Payton loves using his running backs in the passing game, especially now with a backup QB and banged-up WR corps...This prop has hit in seven of the last nine games.” (24:00)
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Erickson: Evan Ingram OVER 19.5 receiving yards
“If Bryant/Franklin (WRs) are limited, Ingram likely benefits in slot usage, and we know Stidham is likely to target over the middle...Patriots are below average versus tight ends, and Ingram has cleared this number in 3 of 4.” (25:00)
“Sean Payton called Ingram his ‘joker’—now’s the time to see it.” (26:44)
Notable Quotes
- “I just don't know what a catch is...If we were in the backyard, would we count that as a catch? Probably not.” – Erickson on officiating controversies (27:28)
- “This is the most the home team’s been an underdog in a conference championship, in like, many years. And I just think that's not correct.” – Ryan (09:05)
3. Rams at Seahawks: Spread, Total, and Prop Bets
Spread & Total (31:52 – 44:33)
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Both take RAMS +2.5 & UNDER 47.5, but with little confidence.
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Erickson:
“This game is so razor close… When in doubt, take the points. I lean on the better quarterback as an underdog in the playoffs.” (33:22)
- Notes Sam Darnold's poor history vs. the Rams (0-3 ATS, 7 INTs last 3 matchups), and Rams’ 6 straight covers in Seattle.
- Observes, “Pregame odds for Seahawks-Rams never actually translate into what happens in the game.”
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Ryan:
“I just can't imagine Sam Darnold in the Super Bowl...I think the better team is the Rams, even though the best single unit is the Seahawks’ defense.” (36:20)
- Both highlight Stafford/McVay as better coach/QB combo.
- Notes concern about overrating Seattle off two dominant wins against the 49ers.
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Statistical edge: “Sean McVay knows what he’s doing, and in two games, Stafford hasn’t been sacked once by the NFL’s best defense.” – Erickson (44:13)
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Total Rationale:
- Best unit is Seattle’s defense; Rams will struggle to convert in red zone; Charbonnet absence hurts Seattle’s short-yardage game.
- Both defenses allow < 21 points/game.
- “Every time the total has been set high for Rams-Seahawks games, the games have gone under.” – Erickson (42:11)
Player Prop Bets (49:15 – End)
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Ryan: Terence Ferguson +600 anytime TD
“Stafford was looking to Ferguson in the red zone late vs. the Bears...Seattle’s going to pay extra attention to Puka; look for a TE TD.” (49:15)
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Erickson: Cooper Kupp OVER 2.5 receptions
“It’s a low number; he’s cleared it in both games vs. LA this year. Rams are bad against slot WRs. Five-star prop bet.” (51:29)
Notable Quotes
- “Sam Darnold has thrown seven interceptions in his last three games against the Los Angeles Rams...Whenever he’s a favorite, he does not cover.” – Erickson (33:25)
- “The Rams should have swept the Seahawks this year. They were the best team in football, even if some metrics point to Seattle.” – Ryan (36:36)
- “I cannot remember the last time I ever bet a Cooper Kupp over.” – Erickson (51:29)
4. Betting Trends, Matchup Quirks, & Super Bowl Rooting Angles
- Erickson strongly prefers the Patriots to face Seattle in the Super Bowl, believing their defense will match up far better against Darnold.
“It’s not even close. The Patriots match up so much better against Seattle than the Rams. Don’t want to see McVay/Stafford in another Super Bowl.” (45:50)
- Ryan:
“The Rams are who I want to win the Super Bowl, because unless you have a reason to hate them, how can you not root for Stafford?” (47:43)
5. Best Bets of the Week
- Erickson: Denver +4.5 (52:53)
- Ryan: Under 42.5 (53:12)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
| Timestamp | Quote | Speaker | |-----------|-------|---------| | 04:54 | “This was the easy one for me...I do think the Patriots end up winning, but I just think it's going to be a lot closer than people expect.” | Ryan | | 06:52 | “That's telling me that some people are weighing Bo Nix six points against the spread and that just seems like way too many points.” | Erickson | | 15:58 | “If Bo Nix was playing, I would have taken the under on 42.5...with Stidham in the game, I'm surprised this number was in the 40s.” | Ryan | | 27:28 | “I just don't know what a catch is...If we were in the backyard, would we count that as a catch? Probably not.” | Erickson | | 33:25 | “Sam Darnold has thrown seven interceptions in his last three games against the Rams...When he's been a favorite, he does not cover.” | Erickson | | 36:20 | “I just can't imagine Sam Darnold in the Super Bowl...” | Ryan | | 44:13 | “How many times has Stafford been sacked by Seattle this year? Zero.” | Erickson | | 51:29 | “I cannot remember the last time I ever bet a Cooper Kupp over...” | Erickson |
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:00–03:02 – Divisional Round Reflection
- 03:02–22:50 – Patriots at Broncos: Spread, Total, Prop, Analysis
- 22:50–30:51 – Officiating, More Broncos-Patriots Wrapup
- 31:52–44:33 – Rams at Seahawks: Spread, Total, Prop, Analysis
- 44:33–49:07 – Trends, Matchup Quirks, Super Bowl Rooting
- 49:15–52:43 – Rams-Seahawks Prop Bets
- 52:43–55:10 – Best Bets of the Week & Looking Ahead
Recap Table: Hosts’ Final Picks
| Game | Ryan | Erickson | |---------------------|---------------------|-----------------------| | Patriots @ Broncos | Broncos +4.5 | Broncos +4.5 | | | Under 42.5 | Under 42.5 | | | RJ Harvey o2.5 rec | Evan Ingram o19.5 yds | | Rams @ Seahawks | Rams +2.5 | Rams +2.5 | | | Under 47.5 | Under 47.5 | | | Ferguson TD | Kupp o2.5 rec |
Tone & Style
The conversation is friendly, analytical, and lightly self-deprecating, with occasional fandom showing through, but always accompanied by strong statistical reasoning. Both hosts debate strongly but approach the matchups with similar logic and consensus leans. The show avoids hype, emphasizing nuanced betting analysis supported by trends, stats, and matchup context.
For First-Time Listeners
This episode provides an accessible yet detailed breakdown of the Conference Championship round for fantasy and betting audiences alike, with just enough talk about playoff drama to add color and engagement without distracting from the picks. If you want sharp analysis with personality and a touch of superstition—plus well-supported betting angles—this is a strong weekly primer.