FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Week 1 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings & Tiers: Studs, Sleepers, & Must-Starts (Ep. 1685)

Release Date: September 4, 2025
Hosts: Chris Welsh, Pat Fitzmaurice, Andrew Erickson

Overview

This episode dives deep into the Week 1 running back (RB) rankings for fantasy football, breaking down every tier—from the can't-miss studs to high-upside sleepers and riskier flex plays. Chris Welsh is joined by top-ranked experts Pat Fitzmaurice and Andrew Erickson, as they debate player projections, workload concerns, and matchup details, while also highlighting discrepancies in their rankings and giving actionable start/sit advice.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Confidence in Running Backs vs. Wide Receivers (00:35–03:12)

• Top 25 RBs are generally trustworthy: After that, things get “murky” and unpredictable.
  • Pat Fitzmaurice: "You’re pretty comfortable with everyone inside the top 25. Beyond that, who knows? It’s kind of ugly." [02:44]
• Wide Receivers perceived as messier for Week 1.
  • Andrew Erickson: “Receivers are a little more messy… for running backs, with the top guys I think we feel pretty confident about projected workloads.” [01:38]

Strategy Note:

• In Week 1, consider leaning towards WRs in your flex spot for safety unless an RB presents a clear advantage.

RB1 Tier Breakdown (Top 12) (05:01–09:46)

Consensus Top 5:

• Saquon Barkley
• Christian McCaffrey
• Bijan Robinson
• Jameer Gibbs
• Derrick Henry

Major Debates:

• Ashton Jeanty (Raiders)

  • Pat (“the high guy”): Has Jeanty at RB6 due to elite talent and likely workload.
    • Quote: “The four best running back prospects we have seen come into the NFL in the last 10 years: Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Ezekiel Elliott, Ashton Jeanty.” [05:15]
  • Erickson: More cautious (RB13), citing Patriots’ run defense improvements and Jeanty's rookie status.
    • Quote: “I want to see how Chip Kelly is using him, is there another running back that's playing on third downs?...I feel really confident about the other guys’ workloads.” [06:09]

• James Conner (RB12)

  • Erickson (higher on Conner): Cites workhorse role and Saints’ weak run defense.
    • Quote: “He is their war daddy, he is their workhorse and he is going to eat in this matchup and you need to start him because you’re only going to get so many James Conner weeks.” [08:22]
  • Pat (RB14, but willing to move him up): Agrees touch volume won’t be an issue; expects Saints’ run D struggles to continue. [09:21]

RB2 (13–24): Workload Trust and Rookie Projections (09:46–15:39)

• Travion Henderson (Patriots):
  • Fitz: “Doesn’t need a lot of touches to go over because of the big play potential.” [10:54]
  • Erickson: Slightly lower rank but admits Henderson is “the best player on their offense besides Drake May,” sees a split with Stevenson/Gibson but projects enough weekly touches. [11:25]
• Chuba Hubbard (Panthers): Both hosts like his workload and floor for Week 1 over upside rookies.
  • Erickson: “He’s pretty much going to be a lock for 15 points... I think his projection is a little bit safer, a higher floor play.” [13:51]
  • Fitz (on why he trusts Hubbard over potential committee back Rico Dowdle): “Follow the money. Hubbard signed a massive contract extension in the offseason. Dowdle signed a contract that was worth a little more than the veterans minimum.” [15:39]

RB3 & Flex Range (25–36): Volatility and Value (23:51–34:03)

• David Montgomery (Lions), RB25:

  • Pat (RB22): “Monty has had some success against the Packers… averaged 98 yards and five touchdowns in four games since joining the Lions.” [24:52]
  • Erickson (RB27): Views Monty as a strong flex play and would start him over all but the most compelling WR options in his tier, citing touchdown potential and matchup. [25:22]

• Travis Etienne & Tank Bigsby (Jaguars, RB28 & 32):

  • Erickson: Both can be flex plays depending on shootout/gameflow. Etienne gets more looks if a pass-heavy script, Bigsby gets carries if Jaguars lead.
  • Pat: “It’s folly for us to try to figure out what the Etienne-Bigsby split is going to look like in Week 1… But a half share of touches against this Panthers defense… reasonable to consider Etienne a high-end RB3.” [30:10]

• J.K. Dobbins (Broncos, RB30):

  • Erickson (RB22!): Loves the matchup vs. Titans; expects Broncos to make a statement with the run game. “I think Harvey and Dobbins are both going to eat in this matchup.” [31:46]
  • Fitz (RB26): Dobbins will have the goal line and touch edge over Harvey this week. [33:12]

Notable Sleepers & Off-the-Radar Plays (34:35–35:30)

• Jordan Mason (RB33):
  • *Fitz & Erickson both highlight Mason as an overlooked option who could see double-digit carries and goal line work, especially since he’s splitting time with Aaron Jones on the Vikings.
  • Fitz: “Mason is going to split time with Aaron Jones so he has a good chance to get double digit carries.” [34:51]
  • Erickson: “He also has more touchdown equity than Aaron Jones does in this lineup. Especially in half PPR.” [35:11]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “War daddy. Fitz is our war daddy here.” – Chris Welsh, coining a new James Conner nickname. [09:05]
• “If a receiver doesn’t have a very compelling reason for me to start them, then I’ll just start Montgomery and hope he finds the end zone.” – Andrew Erickson on RB/WR low-end flex dilemmas. [27:14]
• “Football is back!” – Greg Rosenthal cameo, NFL Daily plug, but Welsh brings focus back to RB ranking analysis. [15:58]

Key Segment Timestamps

• 00:35–03:12: Early RB vs. WR confidence and Week 1 flex strategy
• 05:01–09:46: RB1s: Ashton Jeanty & James Conner debates
• 09:46–15:39: RB2s: Rookie outlooks and Chuba Hubbard vs. Henderson
• 23:51–28:43: RB3/Flex range: David Montgomery value and WR comparison
• 28:43–31:09: Etienne/Bigsby volatility in Jaguars’ backfield
• 31:09–34:03: J.K. Dobbins and other deep plays
• 34:35–35:30: “Squad ride” sleeper pick: Jordan Mason

Summary Table: Notable RB Stance Discrepancies

| Player | Fitz Rank | Erickson Rank | ECR | Notes | |--------------------|-----------|---------------|-------|-------| | Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 13 | 10 | Fitz very bullish; Erickson cautious rookie RB1 | | James Conner | 14 | 11 | 12 | Both high; “War daddy” matchup vs. Saints | | Travion Henderson | 20 | 23 (updated 21)| 21 | Both see as strong RB2 | | Chuba Hubbard | 15 | 16 | 16 | Floor play, well paid, safe over riskier upside| | Isaiah Pacheco | 21 | 18 | 22 | Erickson expecting “top-15” upside if healthy| | J.K. Dobbins | 26 | 22 | 30 | Both higher than consensus |

Final Takeaways

• Top 25 RBs are set-and-forget, but rankings get messy after that—be ready to pivot if news breaks.
• Trust known workloads (Hubbard, Conner) over uncertain rookie/committee situations—at least for Week 1.
• Ashton Jeanty, Travion Henderson and Jordan Mason are upside rookie plays worth monitoring, differing views on trust level.
• Jaguars’ RB split and Broncos’ new backfield are volatile but juicy for fantasy value.
• When in doubt on a close flex call, play the RB with best projected workload or clearest path to a TD.
• As always, track live updates and news up to kickoff, and don’t be afraid to flex a reliable RB over low-floor/volatile WRs.

For full, up-to-the-minute rankings, check fantasypros.com/rankings and tune into their Thursday livestream for advice on lineup dilemmas.