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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Week 1 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers: Studs, Sleepers, & Must-Starts (Ep. 1684)
00:37:59
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What's up friends? And welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy football podcast and this is week one ranks. I'm Chris Welsh and we are jumping in to all of the beauty that is setting your lineups. Finally today we've got wide receiver ranks and joining me is the illustrious Pat Fitz Morris. And brand new to the Rank show this year, the one, the only, Andrew Erickson. The crowd goes wild. Andrew Erickson in the house freshly coming off by the way of a fifth overall draft season accuracy rank. Pat finishing 20th in the in season ranks. Last year we got kind of a powerhouse. So Erickson, let's start with you. Welcome to being the regular on this show. This year with Pat and I, you had a great draft season. So now you're going to have to take that top 15, fifth, top five draft finish and put it to your in season ranks. How are we going to do it?
- [01:33]
C
Yeah, the draft season rank definitely shows that I have the potential to be a top in season ranker. Not at the level of Fitzy quite yet, but hopefully week after week some of his talent can, you know, rub off on me and we'll be good to go. So very excited. Week one woke up, had the pumpkin spice in the coffee ready to go.
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Well, your Jedi master, you can be his padawan. Pat Fitz Morris, top 20 in the in season ranks last year. We are back for, I don't know, this might be season three or at least season two for Pat and I doing this. Pat, are you ready to finally get into this we're out of the draft stuff. We are solely focused from week to week and we've got our, we got a regular crew here this year as well, which will be nice. Yeah.
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D
Time to slam the door on the draft rankings and turn our attention to the every week rankings and you know, help people set lineups and maybe steer people in certain directions. So we'll see if we can do that with any success. Welsh. Well, all looking forward to doing this with Erickson.
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Yeah, it's going to be it's going.
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To be a great setup. Ericsson is just super sharp and I always like getting his player takes because they do steer me in certain directions. And I know that, you know, we'll get into arguments and later on I'll, I'll realize maybe he had some valid points and have to change some of my rankings one way or the other.
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Well, the structure of the episodes because these will come out as three different episodes. We have wide receivers, we have a running back, and then we're going to have our quarterback tight end. We're going to be looking at the big boards of fantasy pros. We're going to look at what the ECR rank is, the expert consensus rank of all the rankers that are ranking week to week. We're going to look at the top 12 review that 13 through 24. We've got highlighted names, differences or just like really interesting guys for that week that are creating a conversation. And that is the structure of what we are going to be doing and going through. Before we jump into this very first set here on the wide receiver ranks, we want to give you guys an opportunity to win an autograph item from a pretty awesome wide receiver. This is your chance to win a signed Jamar Chase Bengals jersey for free, courtesy of our friends over@pristineauction.com all you've got to do is go to fantasypros.com contest, complete the form and then either download the Fantasy Pro's app, leave a review for the podcast for follow us on x Instagram or TikTok, which is antasyprose. And by the way, the more actions you complete, the more entries you will receive. And we'll be announcing a winner right here on the podcast. So if you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe, turn on notifications so you can be alerted when the new episodes are up and you can claim your prize, a sign Jamar Chase Bengals Jersey for absolute free. 99 my friends. Very cool. And you're clear. Number one wide receiver in draft and week one ranks. Before we get into the big board, just want to remind everybody that you can follow along with this by going to fantasypros.com rankings. That is where you're going to see the expert consensus rankings. They're going to change like on the minute you know you're going to have other experts that are going to be dropping names in. So as we even talk about this, you could see some slight changes. Maybe we'll even move some markets, you never know. So you can see players go up and down so let's jump into it, boys, and let's get to our top 12 board. Wide receiver, first time for the year. Aforementioned Jamar Chase is coming in at number one, CD Lamb at two, Justin Jefferson at three. So Chalk, Chalk, Chalk, Nico Collins, Malik Neighbors, that's your top five. Coming in at six is Brian Thomas, Drake London, Amon Ross, St. Brown, Puka Nukua, A.J. brown, Mike Evans, and Lad McConkey. Gentlemen, that is as Chalky as Chalky can get. Those are the guys, and you're kind of happy to see it. By the way. I always find it odd when you spend so much time in draft season. You. You're drafting, you know, you get this guy here. This is going to be my number one. And then all of a sudden, the guy's not startable, you know, or he's not into the ones or the twos and the ranks. And it's like, well, shouldn't we have maybe figured that out for our draft season if we're going to plummet a guy in week one? So the big thing to take away from this is what's the conversation to be had of these guys? You guys might have slight differences, but I think these are going to stay the same. So we're going to flip the very first question a little bit because these guys are so set in that I would like a wide receiver that you that did not make this top 12 that you think either A should be or B could be a wide receiver, one by the end of this week. That pretty much can be the same, but you could find the nuances a little bit. So someone that can break this list because, like, this looks like a draft list. Maybe outside of Mike Evans, he's the one that kind of jumps in here. Fitzy, why don't. Why don't you show Erickson how it's done here? And let's see, a wide receiver that should be on this list for week one.
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D
You could make a reasonable case for Jackson, Smith and Jigba slipping into the top 12. He's in line for heavy target volume all season long, and he is a home date with the 49ers. The last time he played San Francisco, he had 10 catches for 110 yards.
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Erickson, you have the same thing. You're going to be picking out a player that jumps into this list. Who. Who's your name?
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C
Mine is Xavier Worthy. And I think that's a good point you made about Mike Evans. Why is Mike Evans so much higher up in week one versus the Redraft rankings? Well, it's because he's benefiting from Chris Godwin not being there. That's not going to be the case all season long. But for week one, he's teed up to be the number one wide receiver. That's the same case with Xavier Worthy where Rashi Rice, he's suspended. He's not going to be around for the next six weeks. So I think that we're going to see what happened with Xavier Worthy in the second half of his rookie year where he finished his last three regular season games. Wide receiver 16. Wide receiver 12. Wide receiver 15. We obviously saw him even take another step in those playoff games for the Kansas City Chiefs. Everything about Kansas City and their offense this offseason has been we're bringing back the deep ball. We want unlock Mahomes downfield. Don't be surprised if Week 1 against the Chargers, they're launching bombs to Xavier Worthy to get him going. So with that in mind, I think he could easily finish as a top 12 receiver in week one.
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Yeah, he was one of those that I was looking at where I was like, he definitely jumped up the ranks like where he was being drafted in draft season versus where he's being ranked. He's up. I kind of thought he could be up a little bit higher knowing Rasheed Rice is out, is going to be out. But there's also potential for Hollywood Brown, slow starts. Xavier Worthy up this list, but that's the pick JSN and Worthy. So let me flip one more that you guys were not prepared for. And Erickson, we'll start with you. If there was one wide receiver on that top 12 that you think might have a little bit more of a struggle. I don't know. I. I think it's probably safe to say there isn't a scenario where we're going to suggest not starting any of these players like, you know, in the any of the Q and A's, we're not going to say, yep, you're going to not want to play Nico Collins this week. Duh, of course you are. But is there any wide receiver one on that list that you might potentially think has a little bumpy road into week one? Because I see a couple names that maybe could be that I think for.
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C
Me, Jefferson, probably just because he's missed so much time in training camp with this hamstring injury and he's playing with a brand new quarterback and I don't know if it's in there. Love the spot for McCarthy on the road. Prime time Monday night at the Chicago Bears. I'm thinking the Bears defense, I mean last year they struggled. I think that was more because of systematic reasons where coaching staff was a mess. But I think the personnel is not that bad. So I think Jefferson, is he going to be a top three receiver week one? I'm not necessarily sold on that. Again, you're obviously starting him, but he's someone that if he disappoints in Week one, I wouldn't necessarily be super. I wouldn't think that was like the weirdest thing to happen.
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Fitzy, is there somebody when you look at that list and they're just like smells a little bit like there could be a rough week. I mean, the bottom is I'm proud of Ericsson for picking at the very tippy top because I feel like the bottom of this top 12 has a couple names that could probably be ones that potentially struggle.
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D
Yeah, not really. I mean, if I wanted to manufacture a ghost story, I could probably do it with Puka Nakua since Matthew Stafford has had the back issues and he's going to be facing a Texans defense that can just rain hellfire off the edges with Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter. So, you know, that makes me a little nervous about any Texans pass catcher. Even though Nico is in line for a massive target chair and is a fantastic player. It's just, you know, how is Stafford going to hold up under duress telling.
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Ghost stories Here we're just sitting around the campfire just trying to tell some stories. Look at us. We were able to make the top 12 wide receivers a relevant conversation because it really is. It's like I can't foresee when we're doing like the Sunday Q&As, how we're going to be like sit this player that's in that grouping. But you know, maybe there's going to be some underperformances. Maybe it plays a little bit to DFS here. That is your top 12. Let's get to where the top the talk in the conversation really goes. Wide receivers 13 through 24. So bringing up that big board JSN is said player who we said who could be a wide receiver. One he's number 13 on the list in ECR. T. Higgins at 14, Devonte Adams at 15, followed by Tyreek Hill, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson. And then the bottom four, 21 through 24 is Teteroa McMillan, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Judy and Devonta Smith. Now we're going to start digging in where you guys have got some differences and you guys have a Pretty significant difference between ECR wide receiver 20, Garrett Wilson. Fitz, you've got him at wide receiver. 17, you're higher. Erickson, you've got him at 23. So you both have him as a wide receiver. 2. The ECR splits the difference, but you guys are over six wide receiver spots apart from each other. So Fitz, why are you on the positive for Garrett Wilson this week?
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I just think target volume is never going to be an issue for Garrett Wilson this year. Even though Justin fields has averaged 25.1 pass attempts per game over 44 career starts, we know Wilson is going to get an enormous slice of that small pie. So, like, Garrett Wilson could potentially lead the league in target share. There's just no other proven commodity among the jets pass catchers. And some people might see a matchup with Pittsburgh and maybe an individual matchup with Joey Porter Jr. As a negative for Garrett Wilson. But I don't know, should we? PFF had Porter graded 98th out of the 118 cornerbacks to whom it assigned grades last season. So I don't actually think Joey Porter Jr. Is a bad cover man, as that grade would suggest. But he did give up 48 catches for 619 yards last season according to PFF's numbers. So it's not like he completely blankets everyone he faces. I just don't think it's a matchup to be feared.
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A
We have like, the star ratings we have on ECR next to players. There's some pretty cool data there. It'll like, give you a physical grade of the matchup for the week. There's projected points versus, like, you know, like the last 16 games or some cool stuff like that. And then there's the overall ratings. Garrett Wilson, of These wide receivers 13 through 24 is given the worst matchup rating to what you were talking about here. And Erickson, you've got him lower. You've got him almost touching outside of a wide receiver, too, at 23. So is the negative purely just about that matchup, or is there any, like, jets offensive worries as well?
- [12:57]
C
I think it's a combination of the two and I actually moved him outside my top 24 wide receivers. I'm trying to get away from Garrett Wilson where I can. I think that he's more of a flex play and a floor flex play at that because of the reasons Fitz alluded to where he's going to see some volume. Like he's never going to get completely blanketed and give you a zero in your lineup. But is this the upside shot for Garrett Wilson in week one in the game with the lowest total on the slate, 38 and a half points. Guys, we had preseason games with higher game totals than the Steelers and Jets in week one. The market is telling us this game is going to be 1710. Not exactly that, but that's what this game projects to me. Both teams, what do they want to do? They want to run the football, they want to play defense. Aaron Rodgers, we know he likes to slow down the play clock. I don't think that they're going to run the hurry up offense with Justin Fields in his first start with the New York Jets. You look at the Steelers defensive line, they're missing Derek Harmon, Keanu Benton's not going to play. I think they're going to run the football up between the tackles with Breece hall, with Braylon Allen. So I think it's not necessarily looking at the Joey Porter, Garrett Wilson matchup that has me concerned. It's this game environment. It's disgusting. I don't think that you're going to regret being lower on a Jets or Steeler this week because I think after week one we're like, man, is this office going to suck all year long. And that probably won't be the case. We're going to get an overreaction to Jets Steelers heading into week two. Maybe that's an opportunity to buy a certain player, but for week one, I just don't think this is a fun matchup and I don't think that you're going to get burned by maybe sitting Wilson for someone else with maybe more flex upside. So that's kind of the way I'm seeing it.
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Yeah, I had such an excitement for the jets like a month ago and that just started going down a cliff.
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When you look at the Week 1 matchup, you're like, oh, gross, this looks absolutely terrible.
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I'm like, oh, I love me some Justin Fields. And I'm like, oh, Steelers, week one. Whoops. I don't know. Yeah, it's pretty messy. It's a little bit dirty. But you know, he is wide receiver 20 on this list. You guys are kind of split. That's a fun one. Here's another 1, wide receiver 23 on that list, Jerry Judy. Pretty high rank, but I mean, I think it's more about the Bengals defense just being atrocious here. Wide receiver 23. Fitch, you are in agreement? You've got him at the exact same rank, but oh, Andrew Erickson, pink, kick him down. You have him down at wide receiver 35. So let's talk about why you hate Jerry Judy against that Bengals defense this week. You are all, you're almost out on him.
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C
Well, he played the Bengals twice last year. He didn't surpass 20 receiving yards in either game. So, you know, why was that the case with Judy now? Why were other guys being featured in the Browns offense more against the Cincinnati Bengals defense that we know can be beat through multiple ways? Really, it was Cedric Tillman and David Njoku that had these monster games against the Cincinnati Bengals. So when you look at who actually has in game experience with Joe Flacco, it's not Jerry Judy. Like Flacco's played more in real games with David and Johu and Cedric Tillman. So I'm just not convinced that Jerry Jeudy is the by far runaway as the number one wide receiver in this office, especially for week one. So that's why I'm a little bit lower and a little bit higher on some of the other Browns players, specifically Cedric Tillman, because I think that maybe it's a little bit more of an even split and not just Jerry Judy as the clear cut number one. Also, you have to consider Harold Fannin Jr. The rookie tight end. He's going to be involved as well. So yeah, I think that Judy has more upside than a guy like Garrett Wilson this week because you look at the circumstantial of the matchup where Bengals Browns, like this is a game I would pound the over for. Like this game could be a lot of fun. So I think an upside case is the one that I think Fitz is hitting on more with Judy's rank, but I just have a little bit more reservations about him just being the clear cut number one in week one.
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I don't know if that sounded like you need to bring Judy up or you need to bring Garrett Wilson way down if you're making the case that Judy might be a little bit more fun in there. I have, I think I also have Judy a little bit lower than ecr. I'm a little bit more in the Njoku range. But what do you think, Pat, about Judy here? You've got him right at ecr. Actually, if I just blanketly would have looked and been like, oh, Judy, top 24, I thought it might have been a little bit high, but I know this is like very much based off of the Bengals not really being able to stop anybody, but I feel like the Browns offense is just kind of a big question mark right now.
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D
It is. And it's partly because the Bengals defense is not one we're going to fear. But it's also in the seven games that James Winston started for the Browns last season, Jerry Judy averaged seven catches a game, 112.3 yards per game. And Jameis Winston is a hyper aggressive passer who likes to sling it downfield. You know who else is a hyper aggressive passer who likes to sling it downfield? Joe Flacco. And I feel like if Joe Flacco were 30 years old and entrenched as the Brown starter and not 40 years old and a placeholder for whoever comes next for the Browns at quarterback, we would have been drafting Jerry Judy and in wide receiver two range somewhere. And as long as Flacco is quarterbacking the Browns, I think Judy is must start.
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A
It's a, it's a good point, especially with Flacco at quarterback. If, you know, if it was Shador, really anybody else, you just would be like, I'm not really sure how the distribution is going to end up looking. But Judy definitely moving up versus where he was being ranked as a top 24, the final one on this list. And by the way, I would throw out to people if you're like, hey, why are you not talking about Sutton or Adams or something like that? Usually because there's not like a dissent between these two guys or you guys are not or we're not far off of ecr. So just, you know, behind the scenes, if you're like, why are you not talking about this player? It's probably a general sense of agreement on what ECR is looking at. This one is still not necessarily, but this is another one of these where this is Fitz with ECR for the most part and Erickson is going rogue. So I love it. But we are going to start with Fitz with Devontae Smith. Devontae Smith is ECR24 on this list. Going up against Dallas, it's a three star rating. You've got him one spot lower. So I guess technically the technical side of it is you don't have him as a wide receiver. 2 Fitz, you've got him at 25, so it's the top of wide receiver 3. But you're pretty much on consensus. So where are you at and why don't you talk to us about devontae Smith before Erickson just bulldozes all of your takes.
- [19:08]
D
I think you want to start devonte Smith wherever you have him. And he scored six touchdowns in his last six games against the Cowboys. I know the thinking is that maybe we should fade Devonte a little when A.J. brown and Dallas Goddard are both healthy, but I'm just not fading. One of the best route runners in the league against a defense that just traded away Micah Parsons Erickson.
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A
Is this one of those you don't actually hate Devonta Smith, but the rank, it just ended up working this way where you're like, all right, I'm kind of lower because you've got him at ECR 30. So you've got him as a mid pack wide receiver 3. Where he's ranking as a wide receiver too.
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C
Yeah, I mean, when you look at the projections on fantasy pros, he wide receiver 31. And that's when you're considering, well, when Dallas Goddard and A.J. brown are healthy in the lineup. Last year when those guys were playing, he averaged 8.3 fantasy points per game. That was wide receiver 51. Like that's what he does. And yes, he definitely benefits. He, he destroys. When one of these guys misses, he basically turns into a wide receiver one, which is a credit to how talented of a player he is. And I agree with Fitzware against Dallas. Again, they don't have a good secondary. It's a good matchup. But if he just gets four targets and doesn't score, then he's going to be a bust in your lineup. So that's why I'm kind of hedging a little bit. He's a wide receiver 3. Again, more upside than Garrett Wilson, who I don't think has a lot of upside this week, but I don't think his floor is nearly as secure as someone that who's going to see more volume? Who's going to see more targets? I would bet Garrett Wilson's he's more targets. But those targets and receptions may turn into two completely different things with Dak and Devontae Smith versus Justin Fields and Garrett Wilson. So yeah, that's why I've seen it. That's why I haven't ranked wide receiver 30.
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- [24:03]
A
Wide receiver threes. Gentlemen, the big board. D.J. moore comes in at wide receiver number 25, followed by Jalen Waddle. Oh, yes. Zay flowers, Jameson Williams, DK Metcalf. Coming in at 30 is George Pickens, Ameka Egbuca, Ricky Piersot. 32, Chris Olave, Calvin Ridley, Deebo Samuel, and Travis Hunter. That is your 25 through 36. Let's start. Ericsson, I want you to look at me with a waddle. I'm waddling for you. We're going to start with the Jalen Waddle. Whether we're squad writing on betting pros or not. We couldn't, we couldn't have any episode with me and Ericsson and not talk. Jalen Waddle. Here he is, wide receiver 27. Is that correct? 26. He actually moved up once when we did this. He's continuously moving. Erickson's ranks become active. This is a big difference. We've got Fitzy at wide receiver 26, which is now the new consensus ECR. But Erickson, you're coming in at 18. You're coming in hot. I was going to ask you a Tyreek Hill question, but this is an opportunity for you guys to also kind of mention Tyreek Hill, who I believe was wide receiver 17 on this or 16 on this list. So 18 for Jalen Waddle. It's Jalen Waddle sizzle.
- [25:14]
C
Yes, it is. Jalen Waddle Sizzle against the Colts in the dome and with two pass funnel defense. Yes, please. Give it to me all day. I think that when you're looking at how the Dolphins are trying to build their game plan for this week, well, you know, look at their starters. Who's banged up. Terry Kills a little bit banged up. A Chan's a little bit banged up. But Waddle is 100% ready to go. So why can't he be the featured piece in this offense in a post Johnny Smith life? I think that this is where he can hit the ground running. They'll use him a lot. And you look at the end of last year, Waddle had nine plus targets in final three of his four games played. So I think this is a great spot for Jalen Wall to hit the ground running. We've seen him pop in week ones in past seasons. I looked at the game logs. I checked. He does pop off before he ends up getting hurt later down the line. So I think this is an opportunity to take advantage of Jalen Waddle, how.
- [26:04]
A
Do you think he before we go to Pat, how do you think he ranks against Tyree Kill though? Like do you have Waddle over Hill or do you have Hill slightly higher?
- [26:13]
C
I have Waddle ahead of Hill. I think Hill you can start too. I think I have them both inside my top 20. But I again I was ranking Waddle ahead in redraft season and for week one, I mean no one be surprised if one guy out produces another guy. We're going to see that with a lot of these receivers where the number two maybe out produces the number one and I think that's going to be the case here in Miami.
- [26:31]
A
All right, Pat, same thing on Waddle. You've got him right around consensus. So you're, you know, my head is also going to be spinning like Erickson. I'm going to be way too high on Waddle this week. You're going to be our sane one here. What do you think about Waddle this week and also how does that compare against where you're ranking Tyree Kill?
- [26:47]
D
Yeah, I mean I've Hill, I've got Hill ranked higher. So I've got Waddle 26 and I have Tyreek ranked. Sorry, this is bad radio. Let me just check my rankings. I've got him wide receiver 15. So but I like, I kind of want to validate your viewpoints on Jalen Waddle. I like him too. I think he's a terrific player and as long as Tua's healthy, I think Waddle is someone you play every week. Like I think people have forgotten that Waddle was drafted sixth overall in 2021 and that he was a thousand yard receiver in each of his first three NFL seasons. And I mean as a rookie he did it as this low a dot possession guy and in his second third seasons he did it as more of a vertical receiver. Like he can fill different roles. He's just a really good player and yeah, no, no fear about starting him.
- [27:39]
A
This week and I like it. Erickson, you locked in too where you've got Waddle over Garrett Wilson. So that Garrett Wilson has been a big theme here. And Waddle over him just keep rolling with it. This is a wide receiver you guys are both lower on than consensus. Maybe a little bit of a surprise because this is somebody that I think the narrative was wherever you have George Pickens, you're too low on him. But week one that doesn't seem to be the case because ECR he is still wide receiver 30, you both do not have George Pickens as even a wide receiver. 3 He's in the flex spot. So Fitzy, you've got him at 37. Erickson you've got him at 40. So you guys are both pretty low on him comparative to ecr. Fitz, let's talk through what's got you maybe fading George Pickens this week.
- [28:24]
D
I'm just not loving the matchup with the Eagles. I mean Pickens is probably going to see some of Quinion Mitchell who's an excellent cover man, although you'll probably see some of Adore Jackson too. And it might take time for Pickens and Dak Prescot establish, establish chemistry in season. So yeah, there's like certainly a boom outcome in the range of possibility for Pickens. Like there's a good chance the Cowboys are in a negative game script as a nine point underdog against the defending champs. They might have to throw it a lot but I don't know. I'm not seeing a high volume game for Pickens. And he's probably going to have to make a big player too to make his quota for fantasy.
- [29:06]
A
Well, that's it. I mean that's what he does. That's all that he does. He does make a big player too. That's where he lives. That's actually kind of why I press this a little bit because you would think, I mean obviously really tough defense but you would think defensive script is going to have a hyper focus on Lamb. They're playing from behind, they're throwing the ball more. Pickens is a big deep threat. I guess it's maybe not a surprise that he could go a little bit lower. But I mean Erickson, is this strictly just about like it's a really bad defensive matchup and those other things of them playing from behind, major focus on Lamb just doesn't come into play for Pickens or something else.
- [29:40]
C
I think it's still a lot of the points that Fitz made where I mean we haven't seen Dak and George Pickens played an NFL game before together. So why is it this is the, I mean the optics of the matchup. This is not the great spot for George Pickens. You're on the road, hostile environment. You're hoping that George Pickens can come down with a big play against the defense that was one of the best at limiting explosive plays last season. Right. I mean look, he's a wide receiver that isn't necessarily going to see steady volume every single week. I mean will be surprised if Jake Ferguson out targets him in week one. Probably not. So I just don't think this is the week for Pickens. It doesn't mean that he's the worst pick you made in your fantasy. Like, no. If anything, again, going back to buying low on these receivers, that bomb in week one that we know are still good is a really good strategy. So I think, yeah, just be patient with Pickens, But I just don't think.
- [30:25]
A
This is the week for him coming in at ECR. 32, I think this one's a really interesting one to talk about outside of my Niner fandom or anything like that. It's Ricky Piersall. So 32, that's probably, you know, about the general, like, overarching range of where he moved up to. But we've seen him go into the 20s. You guys both have him lower. Erickson, you have him outside, kind of like Pickens, you have him out. So you have him one spot ahead of Pickens at 39. Fitch, you've got him at 35. And I've already seen a ton of questions about him this week because people are curious, can he be a number one? And Juwan Jennings is back. So, Erickson, I want to get your take on it. The low rank on Pure Saw, it seemed like all, you know, steam ahead for Ricky Piersaw, and then Juwan Jennings looks like he's going to play, and I feel like people have taken a backtrack. Is the low rank relative to Juwan Jennings being active, or is this something about the offense that is just not going to move through Ricky Pierasol?
- [31:19]
C
I think at the beginning of the week, when I was first doing this, I was trying to consider what Juwan Jennings impact would be, but then I thought about it more and I don't really care if he plays or not. Obviously you prefer that he doesn't play. Just do. You can kind of consolidate targets towards Ricky Piersol. But, I mean, even if he does play, is he gonna be 100? I mean, Kyle Shannon can say that he is, say that he's not, and we can take it with a grain of salt, especially when it comes to these calf injuries. He also could go out there and tweak his calf, and then he's out for the rest of the game. And then the 49ers don't have any other receivers that they can rely on besides Piersall and George Kittles as really the top two guys. So I think that the Jennings thing probably doesn't matter as much. So I actually have moved Piersall up since we threw these in the show sheet. So he's closer to the 30s for me now, the, the. The low 30s. And I think that you have to consider Seattle's a good defense. It is on the road. I don't think that the Seahawks are a slouch of a defensive unit, but we did also see Brock Purdy go to Seattle last year, throw for over 250 passing yards and three touchdowns. So there is an upside case with Pierce hall just because of the 49ers offense being attached to Brock Purdy and them building off that chemistry that they've been working all summer on, whereas Jennings has missed so much time. So I think that he's a strong wide receiver. Three in flex play.
- [32:33]
A
It's an interesting term, Fitz, where he says there's the upside. There's still the upside play for Piersall. Do you think that still exists? I mean, if Jennings didn't play, Pearsall's still the third option on that team. It's going to go McCaffrey and then it's going to go Kittle. So I think that can maybe subdue some of the values and ranks. But what do you think about this road, Jennings? Like, what's the movement of you barely having him as a wide receiver three here?
- [32:58]
D
Well, Jennings presence does make for some uncertain target distribution. Pearsall could get 10 targets or he could get four or five. And but like, it is a pretty tough matchup on the road against the Seahawks. The Seahawks have an excellent pair of corners with Devon Witherspoon and Reek Wolin. So that. That's kind of it. I just don't know how many targets he's going to get. And the matchups are a little tricky.
- [33:22]
A
All right, Fringy, he's becoming kind of a fringe play. Probably going to be a very popular question. A couple of these guys, to be frank, guys like Pickens and Pierasol, they're going to be very popular questions as the week moves on. For you guys that only start two wide receivers in a flex or even as a flex option. The other wide receiver we're going to Talk about is ECR33 Chris Olave, because ECR has split you two, they are the average between. Because you guys are on opposite spectrum. This is the biggest differential you guys have. Chris Olave for Ericsson is 41, Fitzy 24. So he is a wide receiver. Two for you this week. So Fitz, let's go right into it. What has got you excited about Chris Olave? It's not quarterback, so it's got to be something else.
- [34:06]
D
It's not quarterback. The reason Chris Olave was being drafted as a low end wide receiver. 3. While part of it was because the quarterback situation is so messy, but mainly because of the concussion history. Like, it was not about any questions about whether Alave is good. Like, he's good. He's averaged 2.21 yards per outrun over his first three NFL seasons. That's just a shade below the career yards per route run for CD Lamb, who's at 2.28, and Jamar Chase, who's a 2.25. Like, Chris Olave is freaking good. And yes, Spencer Rattler is a concern. I'm. I'm not here to argue that Spencer Rattler is a. A dark horse MVP cand. But as long as Chris Olave is healthy, you play him. I will say this. The Cardinals do have one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league, and Garrett Wilson. And Kellen Moore has been using a lave as a slot receiver quite a bit. I'm kind of hoping Kellen Moore lets a lave lineup outside for most of his snaps this week so that he doesn't have to deal with Garrett Wilson because. Or Garrett Williams because Williams doesn't really leave the slot that often. But man, I'm just. I'm betting on the good player who right now is healthy.
- [35:18]
A
Erickson, you are not betting on the good player. You have him as like a maybe mid flex. I don't seem excited to be able to start him. What is it? Wide receiver 41 this week. So you're kind of out. You're kind of out on Chris Olave. So is it about the quarterback?
- [35:36]
C
And is that a. I think that has a lot to do with it. For Olave, yes. He's always been very efficient on a per route run basis, but the guy doesn't put up spike weeks of fantasy production. He barely has scratched one top 12 finish over the last three seasons. So if I don't start him, what's the worst scenario? Okay, like, I miss out on a decent outing where, you know, Maybe he gets 80 yards, maybe he scores a touchdown. But I don't think that I'm in a situation where, man, I benched a lot of it. He scored 35 fantasy points. Like, what was. I think, like, I just don't see that happening, especially with Spencer Rattler as the quarterback. And the best case scenario is, oh my God, I just doused a landmine. Like, like this is a disaster. Like, that's what I'm like the, the cost. Like the benefit analysis. I'm trying to do here with him is like, I just don't think the, the positive outcome outweighs the negative outcome, which could be, oh my God, this offense can't function like Spencer Rather. Like Tyler Schuck is in there in the second half. Like that's in the range of outcomes for this game. And I also think the Cardinals defense overall, I think is underrated. Like not even just pointing specifically at the slot cornerback. All they did in the draft was draft defensive players. So yes, last year they were really up and down, but they were also really injured. And I get that. You know, backing the Cardinals as heavy favorites on the road seems like a trap. I think the Cardinals defense is legit. I think it's gonna be a reason why they win a lot of games this season. So I think it's gonna be tough sliding for Spencer Rather and Slash or Tyler Schuck for the Saints and. And Kellen Moore is going to be going back to the drawing board after week one, trying to figure out what to do on offense for week two.
- [37:09]
A
Juice not worth the squeeze, Ericsson says. All right, final thing here we're going to do. We've given you the top 36 board over on Fantasy Pro's UCR who's a wide receiver that did not make these boards that should have. Fitz, let's start with you. One wide receiver that you think should be much higher on these ECR ranks than you think. Is someone need to pay attention. People need to pay attention to this week.
- [37:31]
D
Stefan Diggs. He is just outside wide receiver 3 range at an ACR of I believe wide receiver 37. Last I checked. I've got him at wide receiver 30. Diggs is healthy. He's going to play without limitation. He's going to be Drake Mays top target, his best buddy. And the Raiders have one of the weaker groups of cornerbacks in the NFL.
- [37:50]
A
Yeah, I think the word was today. They said as of right now he's playing. So unless there's something that changes, he is playing and you've got him over some significant names. Pickens, Pierso Erickson. A wide receiver. This is a good name. This is a fun name. A wide receiver that's not in the top 36 that people need to be paying attention to this week and that should be in that 36.
- [38:09]
C
We bring in the all the dusty veterans to the table here that are going to surprise in week one. Keenan Allen for me, I just think that the last time we saw Keenan Allen with Justin Herbert, the guy was catching eight balls a game. It's absolutely insane. The numbers that he was putting up. Now it's not going to be that extent. The offense is different to new play caller but everything has been so positive for Keenan Allen since he's arrived in la. He was named. He was voted a team captain after being on the team for a month. Like he is going to get peppered with targets. His receptions line Welsh three and a half. He averaged that last year in a broken Bears offense.
- [38:46]
D
Come on.
- [38:46]
C
So Keenan Allen for me, easy top 36 receiver. I think that he's gonna score this week too.
- [38:51]
A
You guys want to see more of it? Go to fantasybros.com rankings check out as ECR keeps adjusting. Week one is always kind of crazy so you might see some guys flowing up. I be honest with I think Stefon Diggs might have already started moving right before we started the show. So some of these guys might be moving just as more rankers get in. And like I said, maybe these two fine gentlemen might be some market movers and get some players going up. Also, want to remind you to not forget about our weekly start and sit live stream we've got right here on the YouTube channel where you can come and ask specific start and sit questions. We'll be with you every Thursday at 3pm Eastern, so those listening on the podcast go to YouTube.com fantasypros subscribe, click to be notified and you will get that weekly live stream hit in your notifications. I guess it would be Thursdays at 3pm Eastern answering more questions. That's going to do it for the wide receiver ranks for Fitz and Ericsson. I'm Welsh. We'll talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
- [39:45]
B
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts@fantasy fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [40:21]
A
Foreign.
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E
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- [42:32]
B
This is an I heart podcast.