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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Week 10 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1819)
00:45:27
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- [00:00]
Ryan
This is an I heart podcast.
- [00:04]
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- [00:32]
Ryan
Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan, warmly joined as I am every Tuesday by Andrew Erickson. And we are talking buys and sells. This is our running backs episode is part one. There will be a part two, both on audio wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube. They'll be covering wide receivers and then a little bit of tight end and quarterback talk as well. We got also a ton of audience questions this week coming in on social media, so appreciate everybody sending those in. We'll be mixing those up. Some in this first part, some in the second part. If you asked a question and didn't hear it answered, if it got in on time when I was putting the sheet together, we will answer it. I have every single one of them in the sheet, but some are this episode, some are going to be here in part two. Erickson, you were just telling me that you feel like it's week one all over again.
- [01:13]
Andrew Erickson
I know. I feel refreshed. I feel ready to attack the double digit weeks as we're entering here. Week 10. The trade deadline, real trade deadline is today as we're recording at 4pm Eastern. So we're prepping if there's going to be any breaking news. We already had one trade go down which we'll break down a little bit later on. So yeah, man, I'm just excited for the second half stretch. This is when we see the breakouts, the rookies hit their strides. So it's going to be a ton of fun.
- [01:39]
Ryan
Yeah, this is, it is the first time I, I, I've mentioned a lot on this show and other shows that, oh, it's going very quickly because it always does. This is the first time and I think that's true for a lot of people. When you get to the double digits where you feel like how much time do you really have left of this season? You know, it does go fast and it starts to kind of add up and then you get to the Double digits. And it's like, oh boy, it's just, it's flying. And that is true both for just being an NFL fan, but also for fantasy. I mean, again, there's like what, four weeks left for till most teams are in the playoffs. Like five maybe. You have to go on a run here if you are in, you know, not playoff position right now. We're going to get into a quick Monday Night Football reaction. I was not able to watch the game. I am a YouTube TV subscriber. They do not currently have ESPN. I have a lot of thoughts on the state of streaming. I have a lot of thoughts on the state of corporate. You know, I, I'll save those thoughts for a different episode maybe, maybe for fate of Bros After Dark where I can get what honest about how I really feel about all that. But either way, very frustrating situation to not be able to watch Cardinals Cowboys. It was very not fun for me to find out. I had, you know, like the box score up just to kind of see what was going on. And I was leading in the only league that had not been like, like the, the result was not final yet and I was leading by a point and I had Dak Prescott pick. And then I got to experience Dak Prescott throwing an interception to end the game to cost me my fantasy matchup. Not even getting to watch it. It was, it was a really bleak, dark moment for me. So Cardinals 27, Cowboy 17. Erickson, were you able to actually watch this game?
- [03:21]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I have Hulu, so I was all ready to go with ESPN. I had ESPN2. I had all the ways I could watch this game. So did end up watching it. My takeaways, we'll start on the Cowboys side. I mean, the Cowboys offense just kind of stalled out in the red zone. They had, they went over three on fourth down. They had a lot of costly turnovers, two fumbles. Jake Ferguson fumbled. Javante Williams fumbled. So I don't think that this is a. Oh, the Cowboys offense is dead now. I think that the Cardinals defense showed out. The Cardinals have played all their games close this season. This is one they were able to win. I think their defense is probably a little bit underrated, not a Cincinnati Bengals or Dallas Cowboys s type of defense. So I think that's worth mentioning that their defense maybe isn't such a pushover and it can challenge some of these tougher offenses. So we're looking at playoff schedules, looking at who Arizona faces. I think it's just something interesting to kind of note. But I mean, it's the same guys for Dallas that we're expecting to produce. You saw a lot of volume guys for Pickens, for Lamb. Again, nobody found the end zone. Ryan Flor and I was actually the only receiver for Dallas to score. Their other touchdown came on a blocked punt. So that was wondering where did the other touchdown come from? It was on special teams, so not from Dak Prescott. So I am not concerned, really. They're going on a bye week in week 10. Their defense still is terrible. I know that. They also made a trade, I believe for a linebacker on Cincinnati Bengals. That's probably not going to make that much of a difference. So, yeah, status quo with Dallas.
- [04:49]
Ryan
I don't really feel like there's much to add there. Again, having not watched the game, I don't feel like I can really weigh in on like a concern level or not. But yeah, it just, it felt like from following along on social and box scores that you know, just kind of a fluky, poor performance with some turnovers, things like that. The real kind of interesting question I think is, you know, Jacoby Brissette, what did he look like? Obviously the numbers are good. You know, three total touchdowns, got Marvin Harrison Jr going, got Trey McBride a touchdown. Like. Like that was what was kind of the fun, exciting part of this game. Just kind of watching, you know, not actually seeing the plays play out. Did it feel like he was a big step up watching the game from what Kyler Murray had been? And does it feel like, I mean, the talk online is that he will continue to keep the starting job? Did it feel like that to you? Like that was the correct decision watching the game?
- [05:36]
Andrew Erickson
I think so. The offensive definitely looks better. And that is true if you just look at the stats. So this is from the athletics. So in five games under Kyler Murray, the Cardinals have averaged 20.6 points, 288.4 yards per game. Three games with Peret 25.7 points, over 300 yards per, 350 yards per game. So every game that Briset has played, I believe the Cardinals have covered and then they just end up winning this, this game here. So I think that everyone watching kind of sees that this offense operates at a better level with Jacoby Brissette. He's a bigger, stronger quarterback than Kyler Murray is. I think that maybe he's just better fit for this Drew Petsing offense. Now if you ask Jonathan Gannon, because even he said after the game that the plan is still for Kyler Murray to be the starter when he comes back from his injury but is he really injured? We don't really know. So I think it kind of puts fantasy managers in a weird spot, especially with Marvin Harrison Jr. Right. Where I think we can all agree that it's not going to happen if Kyle is the quarterback his entire rookie year. After the first game when he said it's not my job to force the ball to Marvin Harrison Jr. That should have been just the. The sirens going off that this is probably not going to work, no matter what they say. And Harrison's obviously had spiked weeks here and there, but he's also had games where he's disappeared with Kyler. And this was a primetime spot against Dallas. This was a career high for Marvin Harrison Jr. In terms of receptions. And so, I mean, he put drawn bland through a. A blender in the red zone.
- [07:06]
Ryan
I did see that highlight on. On Twitter. Yeah. Or X.
- [07:10]
Andrew Erickson
So that's just a reminder that Marvin Harrison Jr. Is a good wide receiver, like very, very good route runner. And. Yes. And is the Dallas Cowboys. So you always have to kind of take it with a grain of salt how these offenses are going to project, especially when you look at Arizona, because who do they play next week? Worm, this is a rhetorical question. I will answer it here. We playing at the Seattle seat.
- [07:29]
Ryan
I was excited. That is, I don't have all the matchups quite memorized. Off top of my head, you said. I did know that one.
- [07:34]
Andrew Erickson
So if you get a situation where Marvin Harrison Jr. Is then starting with Kyler Murray as the quarterback, that is a situation where you want to try to sell high on Harrison Jr. But if it is Jacoby Brissette as the start of the rest of the season, then you feel a lot better about Marvin Harrison. So he's a kind of a tricky guy that I think I probably want to hold and wait and see if we get more breadcrumbs about who. Who the starting quarterback is actually going to be because Gannon is still kind of, hey, I want Marvin or I want Kyler to be our quarterback. But is this a Rico Dowdle situation where after a couple weeks the coach changes their mind after. Well, we keep winning all these games and we can't really go back to Kyler. So what are your thoughts on that, Worm?
- [08:13]
Ryan
I truthfully, I find it very difficult. Also, it's. It's really tricky to know. I. I kind of feel like I would if I.
- [08:22]
Andrew Erickson
If you.
- [08:22]
Ryan
If I wasn't allowed to hold, I had to buy or sell either, you know, buy, because I'm a believer that it's going to be Jacoby Brissette and this is what it's going to look like going forward or, you know, sell, you know, with the idea of trying to get somebody to buy into that. But I think it's going to go back to Kyler. I think I would rather buy of the two, but I would prefer to hold of the three. That's kind of a cop out answer. So I'll force myself to say I'd rather be buying than selling. So just because, like I want to believe that this is like going to be sustained and legitimate and like, it's fun to watch. Marvin Harrison Jr. Guy's a top five pick in the draft. You had all the pedigree in the world. Guy we're really excited about. We were drafting as like a borderline wide receiver, one as a rookie. Like, I want it to be true and I'm a strong believer that he's still a very, very good player. No part of me has, has come off of that and I have to believe that, that the coaching staff and everybody watching sees the same thing that I do, at least by the numbers for this particular example, which is that it just looks better with Jacoby Brissette. And so I, I want it to be true, which maybe isn't the best analysis. I was going to ask you. He's wide receiver 25 in our early consensus rest of season rankings, not for week 10, but rest of season. Does that feel too high, too low or just right for you?
- [09:39]
Andrew Erickson
It probably feels a little bit too low.
- [09:43]
Ryan
And this is for only the analysts who. Because some of the analysts start updating this on Monday. This is amongst only analysts who have updated this as of today. So the people who have this ranking that have put it together as wide receiver 25, that is coming off of last night's performance.
- [09:59]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think that for me, Harrison is still probably more of a boomer bust type of wide receiver. I don't think that necessarily changes. Yes, I think the floor increases with Jacoby Brissette. Definitely that's what we want. And I can't help but look at that Week 17 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, right? Where if Marvin Harrison Jr. Is just okay the rest of the way but smashes in week 17, then that's all that matters, right, that you were able to acquire him for that. So I am starting to think a lot more about the playoffs here with certain players that, hey, hey, you had Marvin Harrison Jr. So you won your fantasy league because he went off, he went nuclear in week 17 because Jacob Brissette was the starter. So I kind of am open to the idea with you where it's like, yes, I understand the concerns. Imagine if it's Kyler Murray next week against Seattle on the road. That's a terrible spot for Marvin Harrison Jr. So maybe you buy low after that game when it's gloom and doom and then, well, let's actually go back to Kobe Br. Because even if they go back to Kyler, what's to stop them from going back to Jacobe if no it doesn't work or Kyler re injures his foot. It's a foot injury, right. Maybe he's not as mobile. So I think that I'm starting to buy into that a little bit more and wanting to believe that it will be Jacobe despite what Jonathan Gannon is saying. And I think I know I have to move Marvin Harris Jr. Up in my rest of season rankings because just looking at the way that Kyler, yes, he signed that massive contract I believe at the end of 2022. Is he their long term guy? I don't think so. And, and that's kind of what the media is driving and maybe that's totally wrong. But I know what I've seen the last three weeks and Jacoby has definitely looked better. And I think it also becomes a locker room problem. Where are they going to go back to Kyler when then all the offensive players have no, I mean Trey McBride, dude, he can't players touchdowns.
- [11:41]
Ryan
If they. Players know and if they. If they think you're making the wrong decision, like in a way that severely negatively impacts them and the team and chances of winning, like it'll. It'll be really tough on that locker room.
- [11:52]
Andrew Erickson
Agreed.
- [11:54]
Ryan
Let's get into the show. We often do kind of like a macro level trade strategy advice from you. Rather than give me like a soliloquy or anything this week of like here's my monologue on what I'm doing. I just want to ask in general, how do you approach the NFL trade deadline from a fantasy trading perspective? If a trade is made, let's say, let's say just as an example and by the way, by the time people are listening to this, a trade deadline will have happened. We are taping this Tuesday morning. So we're still a little under four hours away from the trade deadline. It didn't really make sense to wait that long into the day. So we just decided, hey, we're going to tape this before the trade deadline and do the best we can with the analysis and understand that Some of the stuff might look a little different. You, as you mentioned, there already has been a trade. We're going to talk about that in part two. But when you look at the NFL trade deadline from a fantasy manager perspective, so I'll just give an example here. Let's say that Breece hall is traded. Are you sitting there as a manager who had stashed early Isaiah Davis, are you saying now is the time to sell him when we haven't seen him fail yet and there's all this hype of oh, he's now the starter and what can you get?
- [12:52]
Andrew Erickson
Or.
- [12:53]
Ryan
Or are you inclined to hold those guys or go buy those guys who now have these opportunities present themselves? Because now it's too late to go through waivers to pick up some of these stashes of guys that you're trying to be a little smart about. You know, you're. It's likely too, too late to make those trades before the NFL trade deadline happens. So we're going to have to be reacting afterwards. Are you more inclined to sell those guys high, try to buy them high, try to just hold them? What's your approach in those situations?
- [13:15]
Andrew Erickson
I think the process would probably suggest that you want to sell high on those particular players. I think that usually more often than not, you're going to be right. When you can sell on hype and upside of a player in a new landing spot, it's going to be great. It's going to be fantastic. When a lot of this is usually just driven by our excitement about a certain player ending up on a new team. Now sometimes it does actually result in the production increasing, but that's also baked into when you trade that player. So I think that it's most advantageous to sell high on these particular players. Oh, this guy's going to be a Bella. Because sometimes you run into a Tyrone Tracy situation where. Nope, just kidding, Noah. Devin Singletary is actually going to be the starting running back and play more snaps than Tyron Tracy and you're left holding the bag. Whereas if you just flip Tracy immediately. And again, I didn't do this. I thought it was going to be Tracy as the guy. But sometimes weird things happen and guys don't pan out in new situations like we think they will. Even if it looks really great on paper with what the depth chart looks like and who is the quarterback for this team, there's always more risk involved when players change, cheat or change teams. Sometimes it's for the better, other times it's not nearly as good. So if you can cash out for a more stable asset where you already know what to expect and you like the upside of that particular player, then I think it is worth looking to flip those guys more often than not.
- [14:32]
Ryan
Let's get into our running backs to buy here. We're starting off. I would call him an oldie but a goodie. He hasn't really been much of a goodie this season. Travion Henderson has been on this list multiple times this year and I actually when you sent me over the names last night, I laughed when I saw we were going back to Trayvon Henderson again. But he's the number one guy you want to talk about here and there's going to be a theme on this episode with rookies as we get into the second half, you know, further and further into the second half of the year. And Henderson is the first guy that you mentioned.
- [15:01]
Andrew Erickson
Breakout game last week, playing over 75% of the snaps with Ramandre Stevenson out. 18 total touches. Henderson, even though he didn't score a touchdown in this game, he was checking.
- [15:13]
Ryan
I think we could dial back on calling it a breakout game. Like breakout usage maybe, but he had 55 rushing rushing yards, 32 receiver. It was f. It was better than it had been. But breakout feels strong.
- [15:23]
Andrew Erickson
That's fair. That's fair. It's a mini. A mini breakout. A breakout usage game is probably the best way to.
- [15:29]
Ryan
Let's call it a step forward.
- [15:31]
Andrew Erickson
Yes. Thank you for bringing me back down to earth where I appreciate that. So a step in. A step in the right direction for Trayvon Henderson. 75% of the snaps with no reminder, 18 total touches, 21% target share. And I think what actually impressed me the most was Henderson was thrown into a lot of pass protection type of reps because they didn't really use Terrell Jennings in that role where Terrell Jennings was kind of playing that in between the tackles, grinder type of role. And I think Henderson held up pretty well in pass, bro. So they were kind of testing him in this game because that was the issue with him in the beginning of the season. He was blowing a lot of his pass protection. That's why Ramandre Stevenson was playing so many more snaps. Even though we could tell who the more explosive running back has been this year. And although Stevenson has had his moments, I think that we all agree that, or at least when I'm watching them play, I know that Henderson has the most juice from this backfield. So Patriots are expected to add another running back. So by the time you're listening to this, they've probably added somebody, but I think that's not about being a deterrent for Traven Henderson. More about this Ramandre Stevenson injury might not be as oh, he's going to be back next week. I think that this could be longer lasting. So I think that Henderson is going to be the RB1 in this backfield moving forward. And you look at the schedule, it is the number one schedule for fantasy running backs the rest of the season, especially in the specifically the fantasy football playoffs, weeks 15 through 17. You got the Bills, the Ravens and the New York Jets. Now Baltimore is probably not as juicy as a matchup as it's been the beginning of the year where they are looking to improve their defense. They're getting healthier. Believe they also made a trade for another defensive player. So that matchup may not be as much of a layup as it's been in the past. But the fact that Henderson is seeing more involvement, especially as a receiver in this past game, I think that we see this all the time. Rookies running backs breakout in the second half of the season I remember last year in the trade show with you, me and Welsh, the guy that we were circling because the schedule was great and he was a rookie running back and he had flashed in the first half of the year was Bucky Irving and we kept pounding the table. You got to trade for Bucky Irving. Again, not saying that this is the exact comparison, but this is a good bet to make when you're betting on rookies to take that next step in the second half of the season. I think Henderson is going in that direction. So I want to get him on my roster before like you said, I'm kind of glad it's not a full breakout. Right. Because he would be more expensive to try and get if he was three touchdowns absolutely nuclear game. Whereas the usage was was really, really strong.
- [17:52]
Ryan
How aggressive do you want to be? Is this a hey, if I can get him for like what I perceive to be what I perceive to be below market value, then it's a smart bet. Or is this like go get him and make it happen and spend up and overpay if you need to because. Because you are really convicted in this. Like which, which of those mindsets do you have with him right now?
- [18:12]
Andrew Erickson
I just don't think you're going to have to overpay. I hate to be someone that's sitting on the fence here, but were we talking about Trevan Henderson as someone we were cutting like two weeks ago? Yeah. So and, and even after this game, right, Terrell Jennings scores the touchdown. It's not Trayvon Henderson that scores from the backfield on a wheel route. It's Demario Douglas because they switched spots on that one specific play where Trayvon Henderson is instead put into the slot. So fantasy manager is still tilting with Travion Henderson and the usage and how he's not scoring as many touchdowns. So I just don't think you're going to still have to pay a lot to get him because he has been such a big disappointment to start the half of the first half of the season. So I'm not sure where he is, rest of season rankings and who's around him, but chances are I'm probably going to take him over a lot of those other names.
- [18:59]
Ryan
He is. And this is again, I didn't change the settings. So it's still just a few folks who updated it today, not including people who updated it yesterday. On Monday, he is at. Did I miss him? Oh, I did. I scrolled past him. I was like, this is way too low. He's actually, ironically, because Marvin Harrison Jr. Was wide receiver 25. Trayvon Henderson is running back 25.
- [19:20]
Andrew Erickson
Okay.
- [19:20]
Ryan
I like that he's around some of the names that he's around. Omarion Hampton, Kenneth Walker, David Montgomery are the three ahead of him. Kyle Menungai, Jakori, Crosby, Merritt, RJ Harvey are the three behind him. So by the way, that's four rookies in a row in that range. It's Henderson, Monong Guy, Crosby, Merritt and Harvey from running back 25 to running back 28. Interestingly.
- [19:41]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, no, it's. It's definitely a good group of guys that you could definitely see. I think Bill is probably the guy you wanted to move for Henderson. You just feel like, oh my God.
- [19:51]
Ryan
I would, I would trade Bill for Trayvon in a heartbeat.
- [19:55]
Andrew Erickson
The Commander's offense just feels capped with another Jaden Daniels injury. The Commanders in general, just the season feels totally lost. Right. I think I was talking about it on the Betting pro show with Seth. This is the result of building around your second year quarterback with the oldest roster in the NFL. Right. That was one of the things that was holding me back from the Commanders. Just a very weird roster build that they were trying to go all in, but they didn't really have the young assets to do it. And the only guy they had, McLaurin had the holdout thing, which is a total disaster.
- [20:25]
Ryan
So, yeah, I think zero commanders this year. I know I got a lot wrong this year. So I'M not sitting here saying like, oh, I know everything and listen to me, yada yada. But I, I never understood the approach in the offseason for the Commanders. I really disagreed with it. I never understood people just assuming that Jay Daniels is going to take another step forward. I really like Jaden Daniels, but we like, literally we just saw this with C.J. stroud. Everybody's like, oh, he's now the new big thing. He's going to take another step forward. And he regressed now. Daniel's very much injury driven, but injuries was a part of his profile coming out of college. This was a possibility. So like I, I was always kind of hesitant about the Commanders and therefore Krasky Merit is the only player that I had drafted in any league. And that was like early on when the hype was first starting. You can get him pretty late. And, and I've been talking, I feel like on every show for, for a couple weeks in a row now that like I don't understand why he was being ranked where he was. He has one good game since week one. It was his awesome game against the chargers. He was RB5. He has not been inside the top 25 running backs in any other week besides week one. It's literally happened twice this year, week one and week five. And like I, I, I, even before the offense kind of appears now to be going off a cliff with Daniels out for an extended period of time. Even before that, I was kind of nervous about Crosky Merritt. If you could trade him now for a guy like Henderson or just take the swing the ups, I would trade him for any of those rookie running backs. I would trade Crossy Merritt for Henderson, Manangai or RJ Harvey and just take the upside swing.
- [21:52]
Andrew Erickson
Truthfully, yeah, no, I agree. I, I think that and so I was wrong about cross gamer a couple weeks ago calling him as a buy. I think there are still a couple interesting matchups for him down the stretch. I believe that do play the Dolphins in a couple weeks or after this week.
- [22:04]
Ryan
But it's yes, it's week 11. They get the Dolphins.
- [22:06]
Andrew Erickson
So there are a couple spots where you can maybe play cross camera as an RB2, but the upside case for him is just kind of sapped without Daniels. And you know, kudos to you Worm. When I talked about Crosky Merritt a couple weeks ago, you were the one that pushed back about hey he hasn't been in RB1. And I'm like, dude, it's Bill season, come on man. So that was a good call for on your part.
- [22:27]
Ryan
Yeah, I will say on the schedule like Miami's great in two weeks. The other three, you know, the other three games that he has the next five weeks because he also has a buy in there which is going to get you a zero are Detroit, Denver, Minnesota. So he goes Detroit, Miami, bye week, Denver, Minnesota. I don't think this offense is doing anything against Minnesota's defense or Denver's defense. Detroit is not an easy matchup the way they're playing. And then a bye week, like I think he has one good matchup in the next. That Miami game is the only time between now and week 15 that I want to even really consider starting him unless we start seeing something very different out of him.
- [22:58]
Andrew Erickson
So I I would say too Last known on Henderson before the playoffs. He plays the Bengals and Giants too. So like if anything, I look at it as an opportunity for Henderson can build momentum. Right. I felt like he was playing with more confidence in that game last week against the Falcons. Even though to your point, wasn't a breakout game in the box score. He looks like he's feeling better about giving the ball in space. I'm making guys miss. I'm running with power, running with speed, and I think that bodes well for a young player in his first year in the NFL.
- [23:30]
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- [25:50]
Ryan
Starting next week. So if you look at the game log on the player cards on fantasypros.com, the team that they're facing is highlighted depending on how difficult of a matchup it is. So if it's green, it's a really enticing matchup. If it's red, it's a really tough matchup. If it's kind of black or gray or whatever color that is, it's nothing. It's just kind of neutral. So this week he is Tampa Bay. After this week, the entire rest of the season, every matchup for Trayvon Henderson is green. I have never he does have a bi week in there. So there is, you know, one week where he's going to get you zero in week 14. Every single other matchup between week 11 and week 18, if you happen to play in week 18, is, is green and, and friendly. So and, and I, I talked about this a little bit with Tara on our short form episode yesterday. Defenses, you do see turnarounds every now and then. The Ravens last year is a good example. But by and large defenses tend to get more beat up, more tired. Defense, a lot about effort, they get worse later in the season, usually not better unless something materially changes. So I, I think those are going to be some really intriguing matchups for Henderson later in the season. If he just gets an opportunity, I believe he'll take advantage for sure. Let's go to another running back to buy cause we went really long on Henderson here. It's another rookie who has been started a lot more than Henderson. It's Ashton Genti for you Erickson.
- [27:00]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, so if you table the strength of schedule tool by weeks 15 through 17. So essentially the fantasy football playoffs by running backs. The top two schedules in the playoffs for running backs are the Raiders and the Patriots. So I am all in on buying these rookie running backs who are going to be monsters in the second half of the season. So Genti has a really high floor because of the way he's using the Raiders offense. He played 90 of the snaps last week. He had 18 touches, scored a touchdown over 80 yards from scrimmage and he's doing everything that we expected in terms of his missed tackle. He's a missed tackle machine at the NFL level that is carried over exactly like we thought it would from Boise State. Even at the NFL level, he's still shedding tacklers at an extremely high rate this year. He sees all the opportunities in the Raiders offense and with two games with a healthy Brock Bowers, this offense can function. That's like one of the biggest takeaways I had with Brock Bowers coming back is oh, this is the same Raiders offense I saw in week one against my Patriots. That made me think, man, are the Patriots overrated the season? Is Geno Smith just going to cook all year long? Bowers gets banged up in that game. The Raiders offense is terrible. Every other week they come off the bye. Bowers is healthy now. You're seeing this offense move the ball and that helps Ashton Genti a ton. So he's RB15 expected points per game. So I think that he is a top 15 running back rest of season just on a floor basis. But if you get this offense cooking, if he's catching passes, which again he did in this past game, he had five cats for 47 yards, caught a touchdown. I think that in some of these matchups in the playoffs or just the rest of the season for the Raiders, you have Chargers, the Cowboys Week 17 versus the Giants. That alone where if he puts up a Bears level type of game, scores three touchdowns, goes over 100 rushing yards like that in itself might be the make it worth going out and trying to acquire Ash and Genty because that Week 17 matchup, now I know that there are some tougher spots. Eagles, Texans not ideal. Although the Eagles run defense has kind of been hit or miss this year, like they've been beaten up in a couple spots. Still, Eagles usually is not a great matchup especially for Raiders offense and obviously the Texans are juggernaut defensively but besides that you're hoping, hey, he can at least be floorplay in those games. But with some of the plus matchups I feel like he could be a difference maker in your lineup. So I'm buying Ash and genti.
- [29:21]
Ryan
He is RB12 in the rest of season consensus rankings. I feel like that's about right. I don't know that I want to make a strong case for moving him up. Some of the names ahead of him, Kyron Williams, Derrick Henry, Saquon, Javante Williams, Josh Jacobs, then you get into the top. Top six is pretty locked in. And then below him, not that we want to move him below, but Rico Dowdle, Breece Hall, Bucky Irving, Quinshon Judkins, Chase Brown. I feel like RB12 is pretty appropriate.
- [29:49]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I agree. It's hard to put him above the rest of those guys because those are the elite players essentially. And I think that he's ahead of the right running backs. So I think that puts you in a position where if you are trying to trade for Genti, this isn't a running back for running back type of trade that you look to make. It's wide receiver for running back type of trade. If you feel good about your receiver depth. Okay. Or it's a package deal where you're putting two players together to get up to Ashton Genti to upgrade your running back spot, where you're putting together like a player, like a Seahawks running back, Walker plus to go get Ashen Genti or ETN plus to go get Ashen Genti, something like along those lines might be a better way to acquire the Raiders rookie running back.
- [30:30]
Ryan
The one name ahead of him that I wonder what you think about maybe if you were going to try and do a one for one trade and maybe take a perceived value hit, but you believe will be better. The guy who stands out obviously as the outlier among the 11 names ahead of him is clearly Javante Williams. Just in terms of what our expectations were before the season, everybody else ahead of Genty is a guy that was going in the top three rounds. I think I'm not. Yeah, I'm looking. I don't think anybody was going outside the top three and most of them inside the top two. James Cook was probably the one going lowest and even him, he was still a pick that a lot of people liked. Everybody else ahead of Genty is a guy that is where they are supposed to be this season based on draft capital. Except Javante is the guy who jumped up. So does any part of you say, hey, if I have Javante, he's got a bye week this week. Genti's already done with this buy. You know, he had this fumble like, like obviously we still believe in Javante just because he's the only guy getting any work and it's a good offense we think, and a tough defense so they're gonna have to, you know, move a lot, yada yada. When any part of you consider saying if I really want Genti, I'd move Javante for him even though Javante is ranked higher?
- [31:30]
Andrew Erickson
I don't think so. I still really like Javante.
- [31:33]
Ryan
I still like Javante too. I just wanted to ask because he stood out compared to some of the other names.
- [31:37]
Andrew Erickson
No, no, I think that was a really good point to make. And we didn't mention this on the recap, but Jaden Blue was a healthy scratch in last week's game against the Cardinals. So Malik Davis was the RB2 and that just means that it's Javante all the way. He just has no backfield competition. He played, I think 88 of the snaps and he was still efficient against the Cardinals. So despite a down game from him, he didn't score any touchdowns. He was still a bell cow and one of the best offices in the NFL. That's going to have I don't know if we're ever going to see Dallas not score more than one offensive touchdown all season long. So I. I think I still would like Javante because again, you're comparing the workloads I think are pretty similar between Genti and Javante and then you're but the offensive environments, I mean Dallas is just so much farther ahead than the Raiders, even with Brock Bowers back in the fold.
- [32:27]
Ryan
Yeah, I don't think you're wrong. I just wanted to ask. I thought it was worth asking the question, but I think ultimately I do agree with you where I would rather have Javante, but I He's the one. If I was going to force a trade from somebody in that top 11 for Genti, he'd be the one. Probably Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. If you're listening to this podcast, you're probably deep in the stats, injury reports and matchups on Hard Rock Bet. You can put your fantasy football knowledge to the test. Try your first bet on Hard Rock Bet today. Just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. And if you're looking for an edge before you lock in, check out the Hard Rock Bet Stats hub. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie and neither does the data in there. Check out the Stats Hub now. Get the edge and bet with confidence. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida, and it's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. Coming soon to more states too Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your.
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- [33:44]
Andrew Erickson
To play.
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- [33:57]
Ryan
Tennessee, Virginia, Erickson we are barreling towards our longest episode of the season, which is fine. You know, we're, we're, as you said at the top of the show, we're energized here. We're ready. We're feeling like it's week one. We want to talk some players to buy and sell. Let's get to your running backs to sell. Who's first on the list?
- [34:13]
Andrew Erickson
DeAndre Swift, running back for the Chicago Bears. Swift has been on the sell list before. Of course, it's before he rips off a month of pretty great production. However, I am concerned about what this backfield looks like when he does return, which we still don't know. He is dealing with a groin injury, which lower body tissue injuries are always kind of scary with NFL players. They can be re injured very easily. So that has me concerned about Swift, especially after he didn't practice at all last week. And Kyle mangai, right? Yes, it was the Bengals and you always have to consider that we've seen this before with some of these other running backs. Vidal when he ripped up the Miami Dolphins. Clearly that's not something that's going to happen every single week. But Manang guy looked fantastic, rushed for 176 yards, 26 carries. He had over 30 touches. Just I was a really big Kyle Manungai believer in the off season. I thought that he had a chance to supplant DeAndre Swift as the Bears starting running back. Now, I don't think that's the exact case here because to Swift's credit, he's played really well, especially out the Bears outside of the bye week. But he did get banged up and Manangai showed out when he wasn't there. And I think that the coaches that matters to them, right? Ben Johnson doesn't care that it was the Bengals. All he cares about is my seventh round rookie running back look fantastic and I want to keep featuring him as part of my offense. So we already saw this backfield forming into a 1A 1B. Manangai had a role alongside a healthy DeAndre Swift. So now I just think it's more likely to just be a 5050 split right down the middle where both guys are being involved and in tougher matchups, which we talked about on the show Worm when we mentioned DeAndre Swift. Yes, right now the schedule is really, really great, but it's going to get more difficult so we have to get off the ride at some point. I'm getting off the DeAndre Swift ride right now. There's enough things going against him with Manungai breaking out, the fact that he's injured with a groin. If he doesn't play this week, this is one of the next best matchups they have against the New York Giants. So if Manangai is in another full time role, he's going to smash again. I want to hold him for that reason. But in the playoffs you have the Browns, which is a really tough matchup. Green Bay can be hit or miss. 49ers obviously isn't too drastic because they have so many injuries, but Browns and Packers are usually tougher defenses to face more weeks than not. So that concerns me especially if it's a 5050 split. So I think for me, I'm trying to flip DeAndre Swift.
- [36:32]
Ryan
I really don't know what to do here. I feel really torn on this backfield because Swift was producing really well and I don't, I don't know that he's just going to be like, go away entirely. I mean, you're right, you're ultimately right in that it's probably just going to be like really frustrating for both when these guys are both on the field. If either of them's off the field and the other one's healthy, obviously we're going to be really excited in that scenario. Um, I just think it's really going to be tough to navigate week to week. I think it's going to be very frustrating as a headache of like, is this the right week for one of these guys, this right week for the other? So I guess ultimately then I agree with you on just kind of getting out of the DeAndre Swift business and not riding that roller coaster. Would you, Would you. Wait, you. So you're selling Swift? Would you want to be buying Manangai or would you say like, I also don't really want to be dealing with that too because I think it's going to be also frustrating on that side of things. By the way, I was looking up, he did not do this. I was going to ask if Manangai has more rushing yards in this game than Travion Henderson has this season. He does not. But he's only off by about 100 yards. It's. It's like 2:80 to 1:76.
- [37:31]
Andrew Erickson
It might as well be true. Right?
- [37:34]
Ryan
It feels spiritually true.
- [37:37]
Andrew Erickson
Exactly. I think for Manangai, I think he's probably just a hold. Right. I know we always want to be very buy or sell with all these players, but sometimes it's, hey, just enjoy the ride, man. He's playing the Giants this week. He has another full workload. It's sometimes impossible to perfectly time when you want to sell and buy certain players. I understand if you could sell Manangai for something pretty strong, I would do that. But I just don't think in this scenario that you're going to necessarily get the return that you want because Swift is going to come back. People will look at the upcoming schedule and usually you just don't get a lot for waiver wire guys. So I think that Mononga is probably just a hold for me. And Swift, I think, just is kind of the loser in this whole situation for the Bears and the fact that he's also banged up. Right. Swift, we know, isn't a player that usually performs well after he's hurt and banged up. Which has me concerned that if, I mean, if he does something similar. Like what Chuba Hubbard. Right. Where Hubbard came back from an injury doesn't look that great because maybe he's knocking off the rust and that just like adds fuel to the fire of you got to feed Kyle Manangai as much as humanly possible. Even though Swift was playing well before.
- [38:45]
Ryan
His injury, you and I, we've been saying for weeks that we are the Manung guys. So we were very happy to see his big performance there last week. One more running back to sell. Who do you have for us? And, and, and by the way, this is one where the NFL trade de make a big difference. They've talked about it as if it's not going to, but we'll see in a couple hours here.
- [39:05]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah. So it's Bree hall for the New York Jets. So I'll keep this brief in case it just becomes totally relevant if he's traded to a. A Super bowl contender.
- [39:12]
Ryan
Oh, wow. Wow. Hang on. Actually, something. It's not a Fantasy player, but it could be relevant to the Jets. The jets are trading Sauce Gardner to the Colts.
- [39:21]
Andrew Erickson
That's wild. I think that's a great move for the Colts.
- [39:24]
Ryan
This literally just broke like two minutes ago from. And it's. It's rapaport. It's. It's not a fake. You know, one of these dumb, stupid, idiot, fake X accounts. Yeah. So that might be a sign that Bries hall is more likely to move than if they're willing to move Gardner and. Wow. Well, so, yeah. Garner. Garner to the Colts. Wow. That's. That's wild.
- [39:44]
Andrew Erickson
I mean, we don't need to speculate on what it means for. We'll find out if.
- [39:47]
Ryan
Yeah, you're right. We don't need to speculate. But in general, I do think it probably would point the arrow towards being willing to move more people than you expected.
- [39:55]
Andrew Erickson
I guess my devil's advocate would be, well, now they have room to pay Bruce Hall. I don't. I mean, you're gonna. Again, we'll. We'll all find out together. That's true. That's true. So I would say so just on the Sauce Gardner thing, again, great move for the Colts, real life, they're a Super bowl contender. At least they think they can be. They won a lot of games this year. They're going to potentially win the AFC south, and their secondary is one of their weakest points. So bring in a shutdown corner like Sauce Gardner, I think that's a great move for them. And now this makes the jets defense even worse and a better one to potentially attack with some of our fantasy wide receivers. So unfortunately for a guy like Brian Thomas, because I believe the Jaguars play the jets in the fantasy playoffs, who knows if Brian Thomas Jr. Will even be available for the Jaguars in that matchup. So we'll talk about that. The wide receiver show a little bit, but just Breeze hall in general. Again, monster game coming off against the Cincinnati Bengals, but post bye week, Browns, Patriots and he plays the Patriots again in Week 17. And the Patriots have been one of the best defenses in the NFL against running backs this season. Just, you cannot run the football effectively against the Patriots. No running back has over 50 yards against the Patriots all year long. So tough schedule. Breeze hall is coming off a monster game. And if he is on the jets, look, we just saw them. They're sellers, right? They're looking ahead to 20, 26. So what does that mean for Breeze Hall? Maybe he might be a little bit overvalued after that Bengals game.
- [41:15]
Ryan
Two first round picks for Sauce Gardner. Wow, that's a lot.
- [41:21]
Andrew Erickson
I think that's, I think that's situation where the jets couldn't say no. Where it's. You're going to give us two first round picks. I guess we gotta take it.
- [41:29]
Ryan
I don't. I think I feel like it's, it's one of those things where it's like, it feels like an overpay, but also like, I get it. The Colts, you're having a great year.
- [41:35]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah.
- [41:36]
Ryan
You need a corner. Like, just do it. Like, I don't even, I don't even mind the overpay. And also like Sauce, if he gets back to what he was as a rookie at any point, like truly on that level, then it's probably not an overpay. So.
- [41:47]
Andrew Erickson
And I don't know, I like, kind of feel like too when you're not playing for the Jets, I think, I think that's just going to make Sauce play better.
- [41:54]
Ryan
I think that's probably right. I just said defense is about effort. Right. Like, it's going to be a lot easier on a 7 and 2 team than a 1 and 7 team. So. Interesting. Wow. We'll see what else happens while we're taping, but that was a fun one. Let's get into our audience questions here. We have a lot more than we usually get. We, like I said, I really appreciate everybody sending in these questions. So we're going to kind of rapid fire through these as quickly as we can. First question here, Erickson. By the way, these all came from Twitter. Last week we had a bunch from Discord. This week we got a ton from. Sorry, I keep calling it Twitter X. So we are going to take these from X this week. We'll kind of mix and match between the two platforms. Send in your questions to Ericsson's AMA channel on Discord if you want fantasyprose.com chat but of course, we'll be posting this tweet for as long as we're doing the show. You can send in your questions on Twitter as well. All right, first question here. Trade away Trey Benson for Michael Pittman. He has Rice, Waddle, CMC, Javante and Dowdle. So his running backs are CMC, Javante and DowDle. So Trey Benson behind all those guys, asking if he should trade him away to get Michael Pittman. He currently has Rice and Waddle. Rice is on buy this week, by the way. To me, that's a yes.
- [42:59]
Andrew Erickson
Yep, that's a yes for me as well. We didn't talk about this with the Cardinals running backs but they both, they use Donovan Knight and Emar Duck, Imari D. Mercado. They use both guys. DeMarcado actually got more touches than Son of a Knight. So that might be an indication that even when Trey Benson comes back, whenever that is, he's eligible to come back this week. But we'll see. I think we're going to see a committee. It's just not going to be the Trey Benson show, which Benson still is like this theoretical play where I hope that he's like the James Conner guy but I don't know if we're going to really get that. So for a proven commodity like Pittman, I think this is a pretty easy deal.
- [43:34]
Ryan
Next question here. Trade Dowdle for Kittle and this manager just lost Tucker Craft to injury and has strong running back depth. So having strong running backs and lost Craft, trading Dowdle for Kittle.
- [43:47]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think that this is a really smart move. These are one of the sometimes these, these are the best trades. I think that for people to make just really easy. You don't have to overthink it. I need help at tight end. I have running back depth. Sell it for Kittle. I like it.
- [44:01]
Ryan
Next question here offered. This is a lot of names here. This guy was offered Rico Dowdle, Trey Benson and Roma Dun to give up Jackson Smith in Jigba. He also has Amon Ross St. Brown so he has another wide receiver one and not a lot of running back depth. So he's wondering if he should stick with the two elite receivers in Amon Ra and JSN or improve the running back room knowing he still has St. Brown again the names he'd be getting are Dowdle, Benson and Adun.
- [44:26]
Andrew Erickson
I don't like the tradeaway players having the like the seasons and like like.
- [44:31]
Ryan
If not for Jonathan Taylor would be offensive player of the year type of season.
- [44:35]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think that Smith and Jigba we can talk about the regression like next year but right now I don't care. Right? Yeah. The guy is just on an absolute heater. He is the perfect fit in what Kubiak is doing in this offense with Sam Darnold. Sam Donald looked unstoppable against the commanders. He could do whatever he wanted. So I'm holding on to JSN and basically it's going to take like Jonathan Taylor to pry him from my roster.
- [45:03]
Ryan
One thing that I would really like say to people too, depth is not going to matter as much as you get towards the fantasy playoffs. Like just get half stars and also if you are weak at running back. But you have ST Brown and jsn. You can afford to be weak at running back. Like, like you are making up for like I wouldn't take a value hit just so you can have a better running back room but a worse receiver room. The in the aggregate it's you're still worse if you're taking a value hit and that's what you believe it is. So I wouldn't overly be concerned about like, oh, I don't have a lot of running back depth. Hey, we're into week 10 already and that's going to be less relevant. B Running backs do become available, um, you know, through injuries and things like that. And see like having JSN and Amara St. Brown is going to go so far towards you winning in fantasy. Just have the elite duo and figure out the rest later. That would be my my opinion. Last one here it is on Breeze hall trade Breeze hall for Jalen Waddle. He throws out a bunch of names he has. He has Genti Dowdle, Manungai. At running back, he has Keenan Allen, Xavier Worthy, Jacoby Myers, Terry McLaurin, Darnell Mooney. So his running back room maybe doesn't have as many names, but they are a lot better than his receivers. So knowing that, would you trade Breeze hall for Jalen Waddle?
- [46:14]
Andrew Erickson
You said the running backs are better or the receivers are better.
- [46:16]
Ryan
The running backs are better, but there's fewer of them. He has Genti Dowdle and Manung Guy, but then his receivers are all like, it's Keenan Allen, Xavier Worthy, Jacoby Myers, Terry McClure and Darnell Mooney. Like there's no like studs there.
- [46:27]
Andrew Erickson
I think I prefer Waddle straight up over Breeze Hall. I feel like now there's never really any definite or great feelings with the Miami Dolphins, but the fact they fired their GM and Mike McDaniel kind of had okay, you're going to be the head coach for the rest of the season. I think that that bodes well for the offense to at least maintain the production we've already been getting from Waddle and hn. So I think that I will take Waddle.
- [46:54]
Ryan
All right. Don't forget about our weekly trade live stream. By the way, I agree with you on that. Our weekly trade live stream on our YouTube channel where you can come and ask your specific Fantasy Trade questions. We'll be with you every Wednesday at 3pm Eastern on for those listening on the podcast, just go to YouTube.com fantasy pro subscribe and click the bell to be notified of all of our weekly live streams. Be sure to check out part two both on audio and on YouTube. We have another trade, Erickson, that we will talk about at the top of that show. Actually, we have two trades we're going to talk about at the top of that Wide Receiver show coming up here. I don't know how long between when those episodes will drop, so I shouldn't have said coming up here. But coming up for you and me in just a minute. Coming up for every radio baby released. That's what it that's us having fun here. All right, For Erickson, I'm Ryan. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [48:19]
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Ryan
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